By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-09-02 03:34:18
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
篮球专家和球迷们普遍认为，马刺是最有可能从乐透区一跃成为2026年季后赛参与者的球队。支持这一观点的理由有很多，包括维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 又一个赛季的成长，维克托能与德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 搭档一整个赛季，阵中还有天赋异禀的年轻后卫斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，以及一位真正的替补五号位——卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)。
然而，马刺要想在本赛季闯入季后赛，去年季后赛的参与者中至少要有一支球队掉队。但当我环顾西部联盟的那些强队时，我不禁自问——他们难道不都变得更强了吗？如果马刺身处东部联盟，我会对他们挺进季后赛的机会感觉乐观得多。在东部，像凯尔特人、步行者和雄鹿这样的顶级球队都遭遇了伤病，导致一些核心球员将缺席本赛季的比赛。说真的，雄鹿队用那套诡异的“先裁后签”把戏，永久地将达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 移出了球队名单。凯尔特人失去了杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)，还交易走了朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)。步行者则失去了两名首发——泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 因伤缺阵，迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 则进入了自由球员市场。这三支球队无疑都会大幅倒退。
但在西部，情况并非如此，尤其是上赛季排名前五的球队。让我们从榜首的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队说起。虽然雷霆的休赛期并未引入任何重要新援，但他们将迎来两名伤愈回归的球员——杰林·威廉姆斯 (Jaylin Williams) 和尼古拉·托皮奇 (Nikola Topic)。当然，雷霆并不需要变得更强。他们打出了历史级的常规赛统治力，并且经历了远比预期艰难的季后赛洗礼后，也变得更加成熟。因此，尽管雷霆本赛季不一定需要比上赛季更强，但他们很可能还是会进步。
去年的西部第二火箭队，则增添了一位划时代的天才——凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)。尽管KD所属的“时代”或许已是上一个篇章，但他依然高效得惊人，场均贡献27分，三分命中率43%，总命中率53%。而且他还是在那支混乱不堪的菲尼克斯太阳队打出这样数据的。能够重返德州，为一支执教有方、青年才俊环绕的竞争者球队效力，KD想必会非常激动。火箭还引进了全能的多里安·芬尼-史密斯 (Dorian Finney-Smith)，他是一名优秀的防守者，三分命中率达到41%。火箭失去了年轻的杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green) 和卡梅伦·惠特莫尔 (Cam Whitmore)，以及强硬的狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks)，但如果杜兰特能保持健康，得到他显然是2025-26赛季火箭队的短期收益。
我住在洛杉矶，深知这里的球迷对湖人（去年第三）和快船（去年第五，但战绩同为50胜32负）的休赛期运作感到兴奋。湖人用德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 替换了贾克森·海斯 (Jaxon Hayes) 的中锋位置。尽管艾顿自从在太阳队度过充满希望的早年生涯后一直令人大失所望，但他仍然是海斯的升级版。（换谁来都一样。）湖人还增添了马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 来提升球队韧性，虽然他的防守已不复当年之勇，但仍优于湖人队中其他的外线防守者——而这些防守者中已经没有了芬尼-史密斯。
湖人最大的收获可能来自一次“减少”：据说卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 减掉了20多磅体重。如果一个“重量级”的卢卡都能场均贡献28分、8篮板和8助攻，想象一下一个更苗条、更快的卢卡能做到什么。（曼哈顿海滩的餐馆和酒吧已经在湖人没有比赛的夜晚开始裁员了。）
快船队则基本完成了一笔一换三的交易。他们失去了诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)——他上赛季本该入选全明星，并且每年都在进步，但他们得到了布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal)、约翰·科林斯 (John Collins) 和布鲁克·洛佩兹 (Brook Lopez)。虽然这笔交易没有让快船变得更年轻（球星詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 和科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 也和我们所有人一样又老了一岁），但快船清楚自己的争冠窗口期很短。我预计这支球队本赛季不会出现任何实力下滑，而且他们很有可能变得更强。当然，哈登和快船会在季后赛中再次崩溃，但我们现在只讨论常规赛。
和快船一样，掘金队（上赛季同样是50胜32负）也完成了一笔等效于一换三的操作。他们送走了神秘莫测（且薪水过高）的小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter, Jr.)，换来一个实力可能与他不相上下、但肯定更便宜的球员——卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson)。为了省得你查，小波特场均18分、7篮板、2助攻，三分命中率40%。而约翰逊在篮网队场均19分、4篮板、3助攻（并且还没有“约老师”给他喂球）。卡梅伦的薪水比小波特的“顶薪合同”足足少了1700万美元（！）（这事儿简直一言难尽）。掘金通过这笔交易省下的钱，让他们得以重新签回布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)——掘金夺冠阵容中的关键一员。他们还用曾经的那个达里奥·萨里奇 (Dario Saric) 换来了一位真正的替补中锋——约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas)。掘金不仅得到了强援，还让球队名单变得更“绕口”了，更重要的是，拥有瓦兰丘纳斯意味着他们再也不用让那个早已不复当年之勇的德安德烈·乔丹 (DeAndre Jordan) 去填补约基奇下场后的时间了。
这五支球队都取得了50场以上的胜利，比马刺的34胜多出至少16场。紧随其后的三支西部球队——明尼苏达、金州和孟菲斯，分别取得了49、48和48场胜利。真是见鬼，去年的西部强得离谱。值得庆幸的是，这三支球队在休赛期并没有做出太多补强。虽然勇士在赛季中期得到了吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler)，但他们的休赛期一直被队内最佳年轻球员乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 的不明朗状况所定义。如果勇士失去库明加——或者他的情况成为一个干扰因素——勇士的实力可能会有所下滑。灰熊队则为了几个无法在本赛季提供帮助的选秀权而失去了核心球员德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)。他们还必须指望贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 因禁赛和伤病缺席的比赛能少于20场。（我赌他会超过这个数字。）森林狼队则因薪金空间问题，失去了关键替补尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)——他加盟了热火，并且没有引入任何补充。
我开篇时曾问，西部的强队是否都变得更强了。在梳理了所有的引援与流失后，我相信排名前五的球队很可能确实进步了。达拉斯独行侠队增加了库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，这或许让他们比赛季末时更强（他们在以39胜43负的战绩结束后，于附加赛中被淘汰），但不如拥有“重量级”卢卡时那么出色。（卢卡在2024-25赛季因伤只为独行侠出战了22场比赛。）另一支附加赛的失利者萨克拉门托国王队，又变回了我们熟悉的国王队——不算太差，但绝对算不上好。还是那支一成不变的国王队。
需要提醒的是，分区前六名将直接晋级季后赛，而排名7到10名的球队则需要赢得一到两场附加赛才能进入最终的八强。尽管2025-26赛季的马刺队期望挑战去年的前五名并不现实，但他们可以将目标瞄准接下来的三支球队，以及附加赛的失利者独行侠和国王队。
让我们把目标定在第六名吧。或许可以在首轮会会快船。这听起来是不是很对味？
点击查看原文：The Spurs got better this summer, but so did most of the Western Conference
The Spurs got better this summer, but so did most of the Western Conference
Basketball experts and fans are universally picking the Spurs as the team most likely to make the leap from the lottery to a 2026 playoff participant. Many reasons support this, including another season of improvement from Victor Wembanyama, a full year of Victor on the floor with De’Arron Fox, talented young guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and a true back-up 5 in Luke Kornet.
However, for the Spurs to make the playoffs this season, at least one of last year’s playoff participants must drop off. But when I look around the good teams in the Western Conference, I ask myself – did they actually all get better? I would feel a lot better about the Spurs’ chances of leaping into the playoffs if the team played in the Eastern Conference, where top teams like the Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks suffered injuries that will remove some of their best players from the roster this year. Indeed, the Bucks removed Damian Lillard from their roster forever by doing that strange “cut and extend” thing. The Celtics lost Jayson Tatum and traded away Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Pacers lost two starters – Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency. All three teams will surely take a big step backward.
Not so in the West, especially when we look at the top five teams from last season. Let’s start at the top with the Oklahoma City Thunder. While the Thunder’s off-season did not result in any significant new players, they will have two players returning from injury – Jaylin Williams and Nikola Topic. Of course, the Thunder do not need to get better. They had a historically dominant regular season and were surely seasoned by a much tougher run through the playoffs than anyone expected. So even though the Thunder do not need to be better this season than last, they probably will be.
Last year’s second place team, the Rockets, added a generational talent in Kevin Durant. While KD’s generation might be the previous one, he remained extremely effective, averaging 27 points per game, shooting 43% from three and 53% overall. And he did that while playing with the dysfunctional Phoenix Suns. KD must be thrilled to be back in Texas, playing with a well-coached contender surrounded by young talent. The Rockets also added the versatile Dorian Finney-Smith, a good defender who shot 41% from three. The Rockets lost young talent in Jalen Green and Cam Whitmore and toughness in Dillon Brooks, but getting KD, if he can stay healthy, clearly constitutes a short-term gain for the 2025-26 Rockets.
Living in Los Angeles, I know that the LA teams’ fans are excited about the off-seasons of the Lakers (3rd place last year) and the Clippers (5th place, but with the same 50-32 record). The Lakers replaced Jaxon Hayes at center with Deandre Ayton. Even though Ayton has been a huge disappointment since his encouraging early years with the Suns, he is still an upgrade over Hayes. (Anyone would be.) The Lakers also added toughness in Marcus Smart, who can’t defend like he used to, but he is still better than the other Laker perimeter defenders – defenders who no longer include Finney-Smith.
The Lakers’ biggest gain might come from a loss: the 20+ pounds purportedly lost by Luka Doncic. If a heavy Luka could average 28-8-8, imagine what a slimmer, faster Luca can do. (Restaurants and bars in Manhattan Beach are cutting back on staff on Lakers off-nights.)
The Clippers essentially made a three for one trade. They lost Norman Powell, who should have made the All-Star team last season and has gotten better every year, but they gained Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Brook Lopez. While the exchange did not make the Clippers any younger (stars James Harden and Kawhi Leonard also got a year older, as we all did), the Clips know they are in a short window anyway. I don’t expect to see any drop-off for the team this season, and they have a realistic shot at being better. Of course, Harden and the Clippers will fold again in the playoffs, but we are just talking about the regular season.
Like the Clippers, the Nuggets (who were also 50-32 last season) pulled off the equivalent of a three for one deal. They shipped the enigmatic (and overpaid) Michael Porter, Jr. for a guy who is probably as good as him and is certainly cheaper – Cam Johnson. So you don’t have to look it up, MPJ averaged 18-7-2 while shooting 40% from three. Johnson averaged 19-4-3 for the Nets (and didn’t have Joker dropping dimes to him). Cam’s salary is $17 million (!) less than MPJ’s “max contract” (don’t get me started). The money the Nuggets saved from that trade allowed them to bring back Bruce Brown, a crucial component of the Nuggets’ championship team. They also traded the player who used to be Dario Saric for an actual back-up center in Jonas Valanciunas. Not only did the Nuggets get many more letters in the alphabet onto their team, but having Valanciunas means they no longer have to fill the non-Joker minutes with the player who used to be DeAndre Jordan.
Those five teams won 50 or more games, 16 or more wins than the Spurs’ 34. The next three Western Conference teams, Minnesota, Golden State, and Memphis, won 49, 48, and 48, respectively. Damn, the West was loaded last year. Thankfully, those three teams did not do much to improve themselves over the off-season. While the Warriors picked up Jimmy Butler during the season, their off-season has been defined by the hazy status of Jonathan Kuminga, the best young player on the team. If the Warriors lose Kuminga – or his situation becomes a distraction – the W’s may drop back a bit. The Grizzlies lost key player Desmond Bane for a bunch of draft picks that won’t help them this season. They also have to hope that Ja Morant keeps his suspensions and games lost to injury to less than 20 games. (I am taking the over.) The T’Wolves lost key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the Heat – a salary cap casualty – and didn’t add anyone.
I started this by asking if all the good teams in the West got better. After sifting through all of the additions and subtractions, I believe that the top five teams probably did improve. Dallas adding Cooper Flagg probably makes them better than they were at the end of the season (they lost in the Play-In Tournament after finishing 39-43), but not as good as they were when they had heavy Luka. (Luka was injured and only played 22 games for the Mavs in 2024-25.) The other Play-In loser, the Sacramento Kings, have become the Kings again – not terrible but definitely not good. Same old Kings.
As a reminder, the top six teams in the conference make the playoffs, while teams in the 7-10 slots need to win a Play-In game or two to make it into the final eight. While the 2025-26 Spurs cannot realistically expect to challenge the top five from last year, they can set their sights on the next three, along with Play-In losers Mavs and Kings.
Let’s aim for that 6-spot. And maybe face the Clippers in Round One. Does that sound about right?
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock