By Joel Lorenzi, Jared Weiss and Dan Woike | The Athletic, 2026-03-30 08:30:11
上一次我们在MVP选票顶端看到如此多的天赋才华是什么时候？
现任MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 效力于俄克拉荷马城雷霆队，他的真实命中率已达到巅峰斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 水准的66.4%，而且这还是在没有顶级得分手或组织者在旁辅佐的情况下完成的。圣安东尼奥马刺队的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 则让对手完全不敢冲击禁区，这使得他场均仅有3.1次盖帽，更不用说他在进攻端出色的拉开空间和顺下攻筐能力了。洛杉矶湖人队的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 领跑全联盟得分榜，自全明星赛以来场均贡献35.5分、7.9个篮板和7.6次助攻。当然，还有丹佛掘金队的尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)，他经常打出接近20-15-15而非10-10-10的准三双数据。
虽然*《The Athletic》*的奖项观察员扎克·哈珀 (Zach Harper) 将波士顿的杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 排在第四位，但显而易见，舆论正向这四位候选人集中。为了探讨他们的赛季表现，我们采访了最密切跟踪报道他们的记者：乔尔·洛伦齐 (Joel Lorenzi)（负责雷霆队，还有，呃，公牛队）、贾里德·韦斯 (Jared Weiss)（负责马刺队）以及丹·沃伊克 (Dan Woike)（负责湖人队），请他们不仅针对MVP竞赛，也针对这些球员的整体赛季表现以及未来的职业生涯走向发表见解。
请记住：赛季还剩最后两周，观点仍有可能改变。
1. 如果你现在必须投票选出MVP，假设他们都达到了65场比赛的门槛，你会如何给前四名候选人排序？
洛伦齐： 1. 亚历山大；2. 文班亚马；3. 东契奇；4. 约基奇
我曾以为3月初那种亚历山大将遥遥领先的压倒性感觉不会持久。只需要几个夜晚，我们就会遗忘。但从10月到现在，我仍然认为他拥有最稳定的赛场表现，特别是考虑到本赛季的不可预测性曾威胁要摧毁雷霆队。杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 几乎整个赛季都毫无建树，球队的伤病也在堆积。亚历山大依然让球队的下限极高，他在关键时刻的把握能力不亚于名单上的任何人，并展现了历史级的稳定性，即便他不是这群人中最具爆发力的进攻球员。他的效率依然令人匪夷所思。只要俄克拉荷马城赢得西部冠军，我认为他应该在投票中领跑。
话虽如此，文班亚马让情况变得有趣。他已经清楚地展示了自己是史上最具影响力的防守者之一。我也不会忽视东契奇，他擅长这种后期冲刺，并让湖人队成为了严重的威胁。我预想约基奇最终会登上领奖台，尽管他此前设下的高标准、丹佛在这些球队中的下滑以及其他强有力的竞争案例，都影响了他的排名。
韦斯： 1. 亚历山大；2. 文班亚马；3. 约基奇；4. 东契奇
我刚刚在迈阿密和文班讨论过这个问题，但我仍然觉得亚历山大整个赛季的影响力使他目前配得上这个奖项。文班亚马在过去两个月里一直是联盟的MVP，但他本赛季的飞速崛起在某种程度上反而不利于他竞争这个奖项。鉴于文班亚马最近在攻防两端的恐怖表现，他们之间的差距已经非常小，我能预见这个答案到赛季结束时可能会发生变化。很难量化文班亚马在防守端领先对手的差距，但这种差距足以让他跃升至MVP竞赛的第二位，即便东契奇和约基奇在进攻端一直占据统治地位。
约基奇不需要太多解释；即使是他本赛季表现平平的时刻，也无法掩盖他在比赛中展现出的非凡掌控力和有效性。至于第四名，我在东契奇和杰伦·布朗之间犹豫。东契奇凭借其荒谬的进攻产出稍稍胜出，尽管布朗本赛季背后的叙事和攻防一体的表现也应让他参与讨论。但随着东契奇最近的得分狂潮，这次排名中第一到第四名的差距是多年来最小的。
沃伊克： 1. 亚历山大；2. 东契奇；3. 文班亚马；4. 约基奇
东契奇在过去两个多月里非常有竞争力，并且在过去21天里达到了这个联盟球员从未见过的境界。在一个教练们将顶级进攻球员称为“引擎”的联盟里，东契奇像是一半保时捷、一半装甲坦克的结合体，横冲直撞地碾压防守者。湖人队在过去一个月里确实找到了感觉，他们将成为一个可怕的季后赛对手。
但亚历山大和雷霆队就像杰森·沃赫斯 (Jason Voorhees) 一样（注：影史著名不倒杀手）。他如此稳定、如此可靠、如此高效。文班亚马终将在这个联盟赢得MVP，但对我来说，他现在感觉只差那么一点点。虽然约基奇还是那个约基奇，但他有过更好的年份。这是一场极其胶着的竞争，你可以在前四名中投出四种不同的结果，而我对此都不会感到愤怒。
2. 忘掉角色球员——如果你只能选择这四名球员中的一位来开启今年的季后赛，目标是夺冠，你会选谁？
洛伦齐： 我不指望这是一个大众化的答案，但请给我亚历山大。他不是这份名单上产量最高的得分手，也不是最强的组织者或最好的防守者，但他在所有这些方面都足够优秀，以至于我会选择他。他几乎没有短板，作为组织者和处理球的能力有所提升，并且作为一名高效引擎，他的防守已经达到了你能合理要求的极致。他很可靠，失误率是这几个人中最低的，而且在这么多倾向防守的阵容中，他是一位极其丝滑的进攻指挥官。
不过，我也快要盲目选择文班亚马了，尽管还没见过他在季后赛打球。他在半场进攻中对对手得分造成的困扰将是一个巨大的难题，更不用说他在进攻端已经带来的威胁了。
韦斯： 即使现在的奖项没有偏向他，约基奇仍然是最大舞台上最具影响力的球员。特别是在组建球队的设想下，他能让你建立一套只要保持健康就已被证明能免疫季后赛针对的进攻体系。以文班亚马自新年以来的表现，他可能是常规赛中最具影响力的球员，但在我们将他排在巅峰约基奇或亚历山大之前，我们必须看看他如何应对季后赛，后两者已被证明是季后赛的历史级球星。几个月后这个答案可能会显得很蠢，但我们见过太多次新兴年轻球星在首次季后赛的强度和精准度面前挣扎。
沃伊克： 我爱乔尔，也爱贾里德——但他们对这个问题的参与度不够。在这四位候选人中，东契奇的一人进攻体系只能被一样东西抵消——那就是文班亚马的一人防守体系。如果我身边只有四个路人球员，请给我那个身高7英尺11英寸、防守起来像长了八只手的家伙。
虽然东契奇打进最难进球的能力在NBA无人能及，但进攻球员在感知到文班亚马潜伏时那种惊慌失措的样子，才是我最想围绕其建队的技能。
3. 哪场比赛、哪个瞬间或哪次打法最能代表你所报道的球星本赛季的表现？
洛伦齐： 3月4日到3月12日的那四场比赛。亚历山大在所有这些比赛的后期都投中了反超比分的进球，其中三场胜利是针对真正具有威胁的对手。在MVP投票者深受影响的时期，亚历山大贡献了所有这些教科书般的精彩表现。
对阵丹佛的那场比赛可能是他迄今为止最好的常规赛表现：35分、15次助攻、9个篮板、0次失误，21投14中，并连续投中反超球。那是关键时刻的大师课，也是效率研究的案例。阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 的回归，加上威廉姆斯和依赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 的缺阵，让雷霆队陷入困境。但亚历山大一举夺回了比赛，或许也一举锁定了MVP之争。
韦斯： 文班亚马有很多这样的时刻，但我永远不会忘记几周前击败快船队后，他掩面忍住泪水的样子。看到他在挑战身体极限的同时，对赢得一场艰难的常规赛展现出如此的热情，这表明他带来了一种挑战联盟文化认知的不同心态。他每晚都会做出许多看起来新颖的事情，但正是他在那场胜利中展现出的那种令人耳目一新的真情流露，以及他对竞争的极度重视，定义了他。
沃伊克： 球迷们不想听关于赛程安排和疲劳的借口，因为在日出前住进九星级酒店似乎算不上什么负担。但东契奇在迈阿密砍下60分的比赛——就在他带领湖人队在休斯顿击败火箭队后不到24小时——简直是更高层级的大师表现。是的，投篮很纯粹。但更深层的故事是，东契奇看到了他在休赛期致力于改善体形的付出得到了回报——回报就是他在赛季最后几周打出了本赛季最好的篮球。
4. 31岁的约基奇是这四名球员中年龄最大的。你认为他已经跌出巅峰期了吗？你认为他还能作为MVP候选人坚持多久？
洛伦齐： 跌出巅峰？完全没有。如果他在未来的MVP争夺中失宠，那将是因为投票者审美疲劳——这是捕捉所有伟大球员的人性中无形的、主观的特质。他保持历史级产出的时间太长了，这可能会降低他的获奖机会。
但这家伙是史上前15的球员，而且仍然无可争议地是NBA前四。他的候选资格是常青的，如果没有65场比赛规则迫使他急于回归，本赛季的表现可能也会很稳固。我甚至不认为他在未来几年会跌出前五。不过，赢得奖项是另一回事。年轻的后浪们似乎已经在路上了。
韦斯： 上一位在30岁以上获得MVP的球员是史蒂夫·纳什 (Steve Nash)，他在05-06赛季时31岁。考虑到约基奇最依赖的是平衡感、手感和视野，他的打法非常有利于他在年龄增长时保持影响力。他应该能在MVP竞争中保持很长时间。但文班亚马本赛季的崛起让人很难想象在约基奇的巅峰期内还会有其他球员赢得MVP，除非出现健康问题。
沃伊克： 约基奇还会像两年前那样出色吗？可能不会。但他让身边每个人都变得更好的方式，同时自己又是无法被一对一限制的存在，这意味着他至少在未来几年内都会留在MVP的第一梯队。
5. 谁将成为下赛季MVP的头号热门？谁将被认为是进入2027年季后赛时NBA最好的球员？
洛伦齐： 我不是个赌徒，但我猜文班亚马或东契奇会得到休赛期的MVP青睐——特别是如果亚历山大今年赢得了他的第二个MVP。对多次获奖者的喜爱最终会减弱。
至于最好的球员……文班亚马在还没踏入季后赛时就已经感觉像是前三的球员了。我想他在季后赛的表现可能会改变这种认知——无论好坏。虽然成长不是线性的，但这位凶猛、充满激情、在目前进攻受限的情况下已经如此优秀的22岁年轻人，到明年肯定会变得更好，这似乎顺理成章。变得“更好”就会让他成为“最好”。
韦斯： 我们真的需要剖析为什么文班亚马是显而易见的答案吗？（编者注：是的。） 他本赛季的进步令人震惊，从一个容易犯错、在场上没有固定得分点的球员，变成了几乎每晚都能横扫对手的强者。他掌控着攻防两端，他在进攻端作为顺下者的引力，以及他在防守端作为禁飞区的排斥力，都在扭曲对手。自1月份恢复健康以来，没有人能在整场比赛中持续击败他。以他本赛季的进步速度，预计明年这种情况还会继续。
现在，他可能已经是联盟中最好的球员了，即便他的进攻端还需要更多层次的技术和稳定性来追赶约基奇、东契奇和亚历山大。
沃伊克： 上赛季湖人队在圣安东尼奥比赛时，我问过一位老将，如果文班亚马最终获得的MVP奖杯少于三个，他是否会认为文班的职业生涯是失败的。在嘲笑了这个问题的荒谬之后，这位球员说，在某种程度上会是令人失望的，因为那意味着有什么东西阻碍了文班亚马达到他的潜力。
在我看来——如果马刺队今年夺冠，那将是因为他。如果他们没有，他们将带着一位只会变得更强的、充满动力的超级巨星进入下赛季。他会是我今天的选择。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：How our experts think SGA, Wemby, Luka and Jokić stack up in MVP race and beyond
How our experts think SGA, Wemby, Luka and Jokić stack up in MVP race and beyond
When was the last time we had this much talent at the top of the MVP ballot?
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder is up to prime Steph Curry-like 66.4 percent true shooting, without the benefit of playing next to elite scorers or playmakers. Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs is stopping players from attacking the paint entirely, resulting in just 3.1 blocks per game, never mind his floor-spacing and rim-rolling excellence on offense. The Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Dončić leads the league in scoring and is averaging 35.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game since the All-Star break. As always, there is Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, regularly flirting with triple-doubles that are closer to 20-15-15 than 10-10-10.
While The Athletic’s resident awards watcher, Zach Harper, has Boston’s Jaylen Brown in fourth spot, it’s clear that the groundswell is building around these four candidates. To discuss their seasons, we checked in with the writers who have chronicled their seasons most closely: Joel Lorenzi (Thunder and, uhh, the Bulls), Jared Weiss (Spurs) and Dan Woike (Lakers) to weigh in on not only the MVP race, but also the players’ seasons in general and where their careers could go from here.
And remember: We’ve got two weeks left in the season. Opinions can still change.
1. If you had to vote for MVP right now, how would you rank the top four candidates, assuming they all hit the 65-game threshold?
Lorenzi: 1. Gilgeous-Alexander; 2. Wembanyama; 3. Dončić; 4. Jokić
I figured the overwhelming feeling that Shai was running away with it in early March wouldn’t last. It takes just a couple nights for us to forget. But from October to now, I still think he has the most consistent body of work, especially considering that the unpredictability of this season has threatened to wreck the Thunder. Jalen Williams has virtually been a non-factor all season, and the team’s injuries piled up. SGA still keeps their floor incredibly high, seizes late-game moments as well as anyone on this list, and gives you historically great consistency, even if he’s not the most explosive offensive player of this bunch. The efficiency remains baffling. So long as Oklahoma City wins the West, I think he should run the poll.
That said, Wembanyama makes things interesting. He’s clearly shown he’s already one of the most impactful defenders ever. I’m not kicking Dončić to the curb. He’s good for these late pushes, and he’s made the Lakers a serious threat. I imagine Jokić ends up on the podium, though some combination of the standard he’s previously set, Denver’s slippage among these teams and other strong cases have contributed to his place here.
Weiss: 1. Gilgeous-Alexander; 2. Wembanyama; 3. Jokić; 4. Dončić
I just had this debate with Wemby in Miami, but I still feel that SGA’s impact over the entire season merits him the award at this moment. Wembanyama has been the MVP of the league for the past two months, but his rapid ascension this season almost works against him for this award. The gap between them is so small with the way Wembanyama has been a terror on both ends lately that I could see this answer changing by the time the season ends. It’s just hard to quantify the gap Wembanyama has defensively over the competition, but it’s significant enough to leap to second in the MVP race even if Dončić and Jokić have been dominant offensively.
Jokić needs little explanation; even his slow moments this season don’t mitigate the remarkable level of control and effectiveness he is exerting on the game. Getting to fourth, this was between Luka and Jaylen Brown for me. Luka has just edged him out because of the absurdity of his offensive output, though the narrative and two-way play behind Brown’s season should put him in this conversation. But with Dončić’s scoring tear lately, the gap between first and fourth in this ranking is as small as we’ve seen in years.
Woike: 1. Gilgeous-Alexander; 2. Dončić; 3. Wembanyama; 4. Jokić
Dončić feels very much in the race over the last two-plus months and has reached heights over the last 21 days that players in this league never see. In a league in which coaches talk about their best offensive players as “engines,” Dončić has been mowing through and past defenders like he’s half a Porsche, half an armored tank. The Lakers have really found something over the past month and they’re going to be a scary playoff opponent.
But Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are Jason Voorhees. He’s so consistent, so solid, so efficient. Wembanyama is going to win MVPs in this league but, to me, he just feels a tick behind. And while Jokić is Jokić, he’s had better years. It’s an incredibly tight race, and you could cast your vote four different ways at the top and I wouldn’t be outraged.
2. Forget about the supporting casts — if you could have only one of the four players to start this year’s playoffs, with the goal of winning the title, who would you choose?
Lorenzi: I don’t anticipate this being a popular answer, but give me SGA. He’s not the highest-volume scorer on this list, or the best playmaker, or the best defender, but he is good enough at all of them that I’d take him. He leaves so few holes, has improved as a playmaker and processor, and is about as good of a defender as you can reasonably ask for from a high-functioning engine. He’s reliable, the least turnover-prone here by a mile, and such a smooth conductor of offense inside so many defensively slanted lineups.
I am close to blindly choosing Wembanyama without ever seeing him play in the postseason, though. He’s just gonna be such an issue for half-court offenses to score on, not to mention what he already brings on offense.
Weiss: Even if the award isn’t going his way now, Jokić is still the most impactful player in the game at the biggest stage. Especially with the conceit of designing a team, he allows you to build an offensive system that has generally proven to be playoff-proof when healthy. With the way Wembanyama has been playing since the start of the new year, he is probably the most impactful player in the game during the regular season, but we have to see how he handles the playoffs before we move him ahead of a prime Jokić or Gilgeous-Alexander, who have proven to be all-time greats in the postseason. This answer may look silly a few months from now, but we’ve seen young emerging stars struggle to handle the intensity and precision of their first postseason plenty of times.
Woike: Love Joel, love Jared — but they’re not playing along with the question enough. Of the four candidates, Dončić’s one-man offense is equaled by only one thing — Wembanyama’s one-man defense. If I had four randoms out there, give me the 7-foot-11 guy who plays defense like he’s got eight arms.
While Dončić’s ability to get the toughest buckets is unmatched in the NBA, the way offensive players freak out when they sense Wembanyama lurking would be the skill I’d most want to build around.
3. What was the game, moment or play that best describes the season the star you cover is having?
Lorenzi: That four-game stretch from March 4 to March 12. SGA had go-ahead buckets late in all of those games, with three of those wins against legitimate threats. All stellar, picturesque performances from SGA at a time when MVP voters are heavily influenced.
That Denver game might be his best regular-season game to date: 35 points, 15 assists, nine rebounds, zero turnovers, 14-of-21 shooting and back-to-back go-ahead shots. It was a late-game masterclass and a case study on efficiency. Aaron Gordon’s return, coupled with Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein’s absences, left the Thunder in trouble. But Gilgeous-Alexander seized the game, and maybe the MVP race, in one fell swoop.
Weiss: There are so many for Wembanyama, but the one I’ll never forget was when he was covering his face to hold back tears after beating the Clippers a few weeks back. Seeing the level of passion from him over winning a difficult regular-season game while he was pushing his body to its evolving limits showed how he is bringing a different type of mentality that has challenged perceptions of the league’s culture. He does so many things every night that appear novel, but it was the refreshing vulnerability he showed in that win, and how much he cares about competing, that has defined him.
Woike: Fans don’t want to hear this stuff about scheduling and fatigue because getting into a nine-star hotel just before sunrise is only so much of a burden. But Dončić’s 60-point game in Miami, coming less than 24 hours after he led the Lakers to a win against the Rockets in Houston, was next-level mastery. Yeah, the shot was pure. But the subtler story was Dončić seeing the payoff for the commitment he made to be in better shape this offseason — the reward being that he’s playing the best basketball of his season here in the final few weeks.
4. At 31, Jokić is the oldest of the four players. Do you think he has fallen off from his peak, and how much longer would you bet on him being an MVP candidate?
Lorenzi: Fallen off his peak? Not even close. If he loses favor in future MVP races, it will be because of voter fatigue — the intangible, arbitrary quality of human nature that catches all the greats. He’s produced at an all-time level for so long that it might just lessen his chances.
But the guy is a top-15 player of all time, and still inarguably a top-four player in the NBA. His candidacy is perennial, and probably would’ve held up this season without the urgency of the 65-game rule rushing him back. I don’t even expect him to really drop out of the top five in the next few years. Winning it, though, is different. The young bulls seem like they’re on the way.
Weiss: The last player to win MVP over the age of 30 was Steve Nash, who was 31 in the ‘05-’06 season. Jokić’s game lends well to him retaining his impact as he gets older, considering he relies on balance, touch and vision above all else. He should remain in the MVP race for a while. But Wembanyama’s ascension this season makes it hard to imagine another player winning MVP while Jokić is still in his prime, barring health issues.
Woike: Will Jokić ever be as good as he was two years ago? Probably not. But the ways that he makes everyone around him better while still being an impossible one-on-one cover means that he’s going to stay in that lead pack for MVP for at least the next few years.
5. Who will go into next season as the odds-on favorite to win MVP, and who will be considered the best player in the NBA heading into the 2027 playoffs?
Lorenzi: I’m not a betting man, but I’d imagine either Wembanyama or Dončić will get offseason MVP love — especially if Gilgeous-Alexander wins his second this year. The love for multi-time winners eventually wanes.
As far as best … Wembanyama already feels like a top-three player without stepping foot in the playoffs. I imagine how he fares in the postseason might alter that perception — for better or worse. But while growth isn’t linear, it seems natural that the ferocious, passionate 22-year-old who is already this good despite his current offensive limitations is bound to be much better by next year. Much better would make him the best.
Weiss: Do we really need to dissect why Wembanyama is the obvious answer? (Editor’s note: Yes.) His improvement over the course of this season has been astounding, going from a mistake-prone player without well-established scoring spots on the floor to a world-beater almost every night. He controls both ends, with his gravity as a roller on offense and his antigravity as a defender warping opponents. Nobody has been able to consistently best him over the course of a game since he got healthy in January. With the rate at which he has improved this season, expect that to continue next year.
Right now, he is probably the best player in the league anyway, even with his offensive game needing more layers of skill and consistency to catch up to Jokić, Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander.
Woike: Sometime last season with the Lakers in San Antonio, I asked a veteran player if he’d view Wembanyama’s career a disappointment if he finished with fewer than three MVP awards. After laughing at the ridiculousness of the question, the player said it would be, in some ways, disappointing because it would mean that something got in the way of Wembanyama reaching his potential.
The way I see it — if the Spurs win the title this year, it’ll be because of him. If they don’t, they’ll enter next season with a motivated superstar who is only getting better. He’d be my pick today.
By Joel Lorenzi, Jared Weiss and Dan Woike, via The Athletic