By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-03-03 14:00:00
在经历了一个历史级糟糕的 14 胜 68 负赛季后，不到两年的时间，底特律活塞队 (Detroit Pistons) 如今已跃居联盟第一。
这无疑是联盟历史上最伟大的翻身仗之一，但许多人仍在质疑他们是否真正属于篮球界的顶级豪强。现在我们已经有了 60 场比赛的样本量，应该有足够的数据来观察底特律的实力究竟如何，以及他们在东部的等级体系中处于什么位置。
让我们从他们的基本面开始。
活塞队的风格始终如一
底特律并没有改变他们的风格：他们只是在强化优势的同时限制了劣势。本赛季活塞队在篮筐附近的出手占比为 36.6%（排名联盟第 3），而去年这一比例为 33.2%，与此同时，他们的终结效率也从 65.9% 提升到了 66.7%。除此之外，底特律还减少了三分球的出手次数。活塞队糟糕的进攻空间导致对手在他们狂投三分时获益，因此他们将三分球频率从 36.1% 削减到了 31.9%。考虑到底特律的三分命中率仅为 34.9%（联盟第 22 位），我认为这是一次明智的调整。
由于活塞队的阵地战进攻表现平平，他们也优先增加了反击频率，其转换进攻频率从 17% 提升至 18%（联盟第 3）。这听起来可能变化不大，但它直接影响了阵地战的回合数——今年活塞队的阵地战占比从 76.9% 下降到了仅 75.5%（联盟最低）。这些微妙但重要的变化迅速累积，帮助底特律打出了联盟前 10 的进攻效率（117.6），而上赛季他们仅排在第 16 位（115.1）。
杜伦的飞跃是底特律最重要的进展
当然，最大的提升来自于他们的球星。特别是杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)，他实现了全明星级别的飞跃，为底特律提供了第二个建队基石。杜伦的场均得分从 11.8 分增加到了 18.5 分，并保持了不错的效率，尽管他的真实命中率从 70.3% 下降到了 66.9%。但这仍然是一个值得的权衡，因为他的使用率从 16.1% 飙升至 20.8%，在所有内线球员中排在第 84 百分位。重要的是，杜伦的单打次数比上赛季增加了一倍多，且这类进攻场均能得到 1.08 分，同样处于全联盟的第 84 百分位。虽然这类进攻仅占总回合数的 9%（排在全联盟 80 名开外），但它确实为底特律提供了一个备选的攻坚手段，同时也减轻了凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 的进攻负担。
杜伦的自主进攻多集中在中距离，他在该区域的命中率达到了体面的 49%。他有 31% 的投篮来自该区域，比上赛季增加了 13%。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
防守端，杜伦的护筐能力有了显著提高。上赛季对手在篮筐 6 英尺范围内的投篮命中率为 62.9%，而今年仅为 58.8%，后者比对手的预期投篮命中率低了 5.3%。虽然这算不上顶级，但杜伦现在已经把自己从前几个赛季的防守漏勺变成了优秀的防守型中锋。
杜伦在防守端最大的进步在于他的选位和决策。他的犯规率降到了职业生涯新低，并且总能出现在正确的位置去干扰投篮。在下方的第一个片段中，杜伦垂直起跳以避免接触，并在空中做出反应切换防守手臂，封盖了对手的挑篮尝试。接着在第二个片段中，他在最后时刻协防堵住了突破路径，使得贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 无法轻松地将球传给安德烈·德拉蒙德 (Andre Drummond)。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
防守已成为底特律的招牌
活塞队目前防守排名联盟第 2，防守效率 (DRTG) 为 109.1，“仅”落后俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 1.7 分。考虑到赛季初雷霆队的防守领先优势有多大，底特律能追到射程之内确实令人印象深刻。而活塞队 109.1 的防守效率与排名第 3 的圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs)（111.4）之间的差距，相当于马刺队与第 9 名菲尼克斯太阳队 (Phoenix Suns)（113.7）之间的差距。
事实上，自 11 月下旬以来，底特律一直拥有全联盟最顶级的防守，而护筐是他们最大的强项。对手在篮筐 4 英尺范围内的整体命中率仅为 62.9%，是联盟第四低。更重要的是，活塞队只允许对手 27.7% 的出手发生在该区域，这同样是全联盟第三少的。这种在进攻威胁最大的区域同时限制对手出手数量和质量的组合，赋予了底特律极高的防守下限，当然，他们也确实带点运气成分。
由于侧重于保护篮筐，活塞队放任对手 39.1% 的投篮来自三分线外——这是联盟第 11 高的比例。幸运的是，对手在这些出手中的命中率仅为 34.8%，是本赛季第四低。考虑到联盟三分球平均命中率为 36.1%，底特律的表现可能会出现一些下滑，但他们的基本面非常扎实，即使触及“地板”，他们依然是一支前三级别的防守球队，唯有雷霆是那支确定比他们更强的球队。
但他们的进攻却不可同日而语……
进攻端则是另一番景象。当凯德 (Cade) 在场时，活塞队的进攻效率 (ORTG) 为 120.1——相当于波士顿凯尔特人队 (Boston Celtics) 排名联盟第 3 的水平——但当他不在场时，这一数字会跌至惨不忍睹的 112.1，在全联盟仅排在第 26 位。尽管杜伦有所进步，但底特律在凯德之后仍缺乏可靠的第二创造者，不过凭借顶级的防守，他们在凯德下场的时间里净胜分仍有 +3.0。
凯德不在场时，他们的打法没有任何改变。底特律变得如此依赖他，以至于当他不在场指挥时，球队无法创造出高效的投篮机会，这也剥夺了他们最可靠的一套进攻战术：凯德与杜伦的挡拆。在全联盟范围内，场均执行挡拆次数仅次于卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 的就是凯德，他在这类回合中场均能得到稳健的 0.95 分（排在第 73 百分位）。杜伦受益更多，他场均挡拆下顺次数也排在全联盟前 20，且每回合能得到惊人的 1.38 分（排在第 86 百分位）。失去了进攻轴心，活塞队在进攻端简直判若两队。他们没有足够优秀的第二控球手来模仿凯德的角色，也缺乏能够执行跑动战术的神射手。
尽管如此，我仍认为底特律是从充满破绽的东部脱颖而出的头号热门，这主要是基于他们与其他竞争对手的对阵表现。本赛季三场比赛中，活塞队合计大胜纽约尼克斯队 (New York Knicks) 84 分，并且拥有克利夫兰骑士队 (Cleveland Cavaliers) 的致命弱点：前场的身材和对抗能力。考虑到杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 可能回归，波士顿是东部豪强中真正的变量，但在那发生之前，底特律是最稳妥的选择。
不过，如果活塞队真的打进总决赛，我不认为他们能击败从西部杀出来的任何一支劲旅。我相信雷霆、丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets) 和马刺这三支球队都强于底特律，无论最终对阵是谁，西部冠军都应该是总决赛的绝对热门。即便如此，这个赛季对活塞队来说仍算得上是巨大的成功，而且他们拥有足够的资产在休赛期寻求补强，从而在明年以更强的姿态回归。
本周，请阅读 Marilyn 撰写的马刺上周综述！圣安东尼奥马刺今年确实有实力争夺冠军，而全联盟也正在意识到这一点。
感谢阅读！
所有统计数据均由 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 提供。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: A deep dive into the Detroit Pistons
Around the NBA: A deep dive into the Detroit Pistons
Less than two years after a historically awful 14-68 season, the Pistons are now the #1 team in the league.
It’s undoubtedly one of the greatest turnarounds in league history, but many are still questioning their place among basketball’s elite. Now that we have 60 games worth of sample, there should be more than enough data to see just how good Detroit is, and where they place in the East’s hierarchy.
Let’s start with their fundamentals.
The Pistons’ style has remained the same
Detroit hasn’t changed their style: they’ve simply improved on their strengths and limited their weaknesses. The Pistons are attempting 36.6% of their shots around the rim this season (3rd league-wide) compared to 33.2% last year, and have improved their efficiency from 65.9% to 66.7% while doing so. On top of that, Detroit has decreased the number of threes they take. The Pistons’ poor spacing has resulted in opponents benefiting when they bomb from deep, so they’ve cut down their 3-point frequency from 36.1% to 31.9%. Given that Detroit’s making just 34.9% of their attempts (22nd league-wide), I’d consider that a win.
With the Pistons being a medi0cre halfcourt offense, they’ve also prioritized running more, as their transition frequency has increased from 17% to 18% (3rd league-wide). That may not sound like a big change, but it directly impacts the number of half-court possessions they have too, which has decreased from 76.9% to just 75.5% this year (lowest league-wide). These subtle but important changes add up quickly, and it’s helped Detroit sport a top-10 offensive rating (117.6) when it was just 16th last season (115.1).
Duren’s leap has been Detroit’s most important development
Of course, the biggest improvements have come from their stars. Jalen Duren, specifically, has taken an All-Star leap that has given Detroit a second cornerstone piece to build around. Duren has increased his scoring from 11.8 to 18.5 points per game while maintaining good efficiency, although his true shooting has dropped from 70.3% to 66.9%. Still, that’s a worthwhile tradeoff given his usage has gone from 16.1% to 20.8%, which is in the 84th percentile amongst all big men. Importantly, Duren’s isolations have more than doubled from last season and he’s averaging 1.08 points on such plays, which is also in the 84th percentile in the entire league. These plays only occur on 9% of possessions (outside the top 80 league-wide), but it does give Detroit a last-ditch option if needed, while also taking some offensive burden off Cade.
Duren’s self-created shots mostly come in the mid-range, an area where he is shooting a respectable 49%. He’s also taking 31% of his shots from that area, which is a 13% increase from last season.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
Defensively, Duren’s rim protection has improved drastically. Opponents have gone from shooting 62.9% within 6 feet of the basket last season to just 58.8% this year, with the latter number being 5.3% lower than the opponents’ expected field goal percentage. It’s not elite by any means, but Duren has now turned himself into a good defensive centre when he was a liability in previous seasons.
The biggest defensive improvement Duren’s made is his positioning and decision-making. He’s averaging the lowest foul rate of his career and now puts himself in the right spots to contest shots. In the first clip below, Duren goes straight up to avoid contact and reacts mid-air to switch arms and block the layup attempt. Then, in the second clip, he helps cover for the driver at the last second, so that McCain can’t easily dump it down to Drummond.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 3, 2026
Defense has been Detroit’s calling card
The Pistons are currently the #2 ranked defense with a 109.1 DRTG that’s “only” 1.7 points behind OKC. Considering how far ahead the Thunder’s defense was to start the season, it’s impressive that Detroit is within striking distance, and the difference between the Pistons’ 109.1 DRTG and the third-ranked Spurs at 111.4 is the difference between San Antonio and 9th-ranked Phoenix (113.7).
In fact, Detroit has had the best defense league-wide since late November, with rim protection being their biggest strength. Opponents are only shooting 62.9% overall within 4 feet of the basket, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. More importantly, the Pistons are also allowing just 27.7% of opponent shots to come in that area, which is the third-fewest mark league-wide too. The combination of both limiting the quantity and quality of attempts in the most dangerous offensive area gives Detroit an extremely high defensive floor, but they’ve also been somewhat lucky as well.
Due to their emphasis on rim protection, the Pistons are conceding 39.1% of all opponent shots to come from three — the 11th highest mark in the league. Fortunately, teams have made just 34.8% of those attempts, which is the fourth-lowest mark this season. Given that the league average three-point percent is 36.1%, Detroit might be due for some regression, but their fundamentals are so sound that their floor is still a top 3 defense, with OKC being the only team that’s definitively better.
The same can’t be said about their offense…
It’s a different story on offense. The Pistons have a 120.1 ORTG with Cade playing — equivalent to Boston’s 3rd ranked offense — but that drops to an abysmal 112.1 when he’s off, which would rank 26th league-wide. Even with Duren’s improvements, Detroit lacks a reliable second creator behind Cade, although they’re still a +3.0 in those minutes due to their elite defense.
Nothing about their playstyle changes when Cade sits. Detroit has just become so reliant on him that they can’t generate efficient shots when he’s not at the helm, and it also takes away one of their most reliable offensive sets: the pick and roll between Cade and Duren. Cade is second only to Luka in the entire league in P&Rs run per game, scoring a robust 0.95 points on such possessions (73rd percentile). Duren benefits even more, as he also ranks in the top 20 in rolls per game while scoring an absurd 1.38 points on those plays (86th percentile). Without their offensive fulcrum, the Pistons are simply lost on offense. They don’t have a secondary ballhandler good enough to be a caricature of Cade, and they also lack a deadeye shooter to run motion sets for.
Still, I would consider Detroit to be the clear favorite to come out of a flawed East, mainly due to how they match up with the other contenders. The Pistons have beaten the Knicks by 84 points in three games this season and also possess the Cavs’ achilles heal: size and physicality in the frontcourt. Boston is the real wildcard amongst the East’s elite given Tatum’s potential return, but until that happens, Detroit is the safest bet.
If the Pistons do make it to the finals, though, I can’t see them beating whichever juggernaut comes out of the West. I believe that all three of OKC, Denver, and San Antonio are better than Detroit, and the West team should be clear favorites in the finals regardless of the matchup. Even so, this season will go down as a resounding success for the Pistons, and they have enough assets to acquire help in the offseason to come back even better next year.
This week, please check out Marilyn’s recap of the Spurs’ past week! San Antonio could legitimately win the title this year, and the league is coming to grips with that.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock