By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-02-26 11:00:55
在NBA常规赛结束前的每周，我们都会盘点各项个人大奖的竞争形势。上周由于全明星周末没有比赛可供分析，我们深入探讨了最佳阵容（All-NBA teams）的评选。但本周，关于“65场规则”可能引发后果的讨论显著升温，所以让我们来详细聊聊。
NBA将65场比赛的门槛设定为赛季末奖项的评选资格，似乎是为了让潜在的新转播合作伙伴放心。如果你要支付数十亿美元来转播黄金时段的比赛，你肯定希望那些大牌球星能够出场。而“负荷管理”时代通常被归咎于球员，而非为了降低损耗而让球员休战的球队。
自2023-24赛季以来，球员必须至少出战65场比赛才有资格入选最佳阵容、最佳防守阵容，或参与评选MVP、最佳防守球员（DPOY）以及最快进步球员（MIP）。本赛季，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)、斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry)、勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和 安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 等大牌球星已经失去了评选资格。
科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 在失去资格前还能再缺席三场。尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 只要再缺席一场就将失去资格。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在失去资格前还有三场的额度。卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 还能再休五场。甚至连卫冕MVP 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 也让人担心他可能无法达标——他因腹部伤势已经缺席了11场比赛，且目前还没有明确的复出时间表。
本赛季的情况可能会演变成对联盟的一次挑战，迫使其考虑对65场规则进行潜在修改。也许不是彻底废除，但我们可能会看到关于入选所需比赛总数的修正，或是引入一些豁免条款。如果吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、约基奇、东契奇、扬尼斯以及其他超级巨星完全退出顶级奖项的争夺，这将让联盟处理此事的方式被打上一个大大的问号。虽然过去很多赛季的获奖者都存在争议，但产生一个“捡漏式”的MVP，似乎并不是褒奖联盟精英球员的最佳方式。
对于一个高度依赖网络关注且时刻在意自身形象的联盟来说，这件事最终会如何收场？
话虽如此，让我们进入本周的奖项观察。（赔率参考BetMGM，统计数据截至周三比赛前。）
MVP
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z9rc9?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z9rc9?dark=false
五位荣誉提名： 泰雷斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，费城76人 | 多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士 | 东契奇，洛杉矶湖人 | 安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，明尼苏达森林狼 | 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯
5. 杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人（赔率+2500，此前第4）
4. 凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)，底特律活塞（赔率+425，此前第3）
3. 维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺（赔率+1400，此前第5）
这个排名可能受到了文班亚马率队击败活塞的影响。在那场比赛中，文班砍下21分、17个篮板和6次盖帽，而坎宁安26投仅5中得到16分。马刺队仍在不断赢球，并向着全联盟最佳战绩冲刺。他们距离战绩榜首的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队并不遥远，尽管文班已经缺席了14场比赛，但他本赛季的表现无疑是最具价值的球员之一。他的存在让马刺变成了全联盟防守最好的球队。在进攻端，他依然极难对付。他的统计数据非常惊人，而且在正确的时间点呈现上升趋势。
布朗和坎宁安在东部的对决同样不可思议。两位球员都是各自球队攻防两端的领袖，且球队战绩位居联盟前列。考虑到杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 本赛季的缺阵，布朗的评选“故事性”稍好一些。而坎宁安的故事则是两年前他的球队只赢了14场比赛，如今他的进步和价值已将其推向超级巨星行列。这三名球员都有理由出现在MVP的选票上。
然而，只有在约基奇或吉尔杰斯-亚历山大失去资格的情况下，文班、坎宁安甚至布朗才有可能赢得这个奖项。值得注意的是，坎宁安的赔率发生了剧烈变化——两周前还是+1600，现在已经变成+425。文班则从赔率榜外直接冲到了第四。布朗的赔率也从两周前的+4000变为了现在的+2500。显然，人们正预计吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和/或约基奇无法打满65场。
如果约基奇和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大真的失去资格，这最终会变成一个“默认”产生的MVP吗？球员或球迷会在意吗？随着时间的推移，我们（作为整体）是否会不再给它贴上这样的标签？65场规则可能会让本赛季乃至未来的这些荣誉评价变得非常复杂。
2. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马城雷霆（赔率-125，此前第1）
1. 尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金（赔率+300，此前第2）
我把约基奇排在吉尔杰斯-亚历山大之前，是因为两人缺赛场数的差距正在缩小。约基奇多缺席了5场，而在亚历山大重返赛场前，这个数字可能还会缩小。如果约基奇在赛季结束时仍保留评选资格，他的数据是无可辩驳的。很难想象一名场均得到31.6分、6.4次助攻和4.4个篮板，投篮命中率为55.4%/39.0%/89.2%，真实命中率高达67.0%的球员（正如亚历山大所做的）无法压倒另一位候选人，尤其是当你讨论的是最强球队中的最强球员时。但这恰恰说明了约基奇本赛季的表现有多么不可思议。
这位掘金球星目前场均砍下28.8分、10.5次助攻和12.5个篮板，投篮命中率为58.4%/42.1%/83.6%，真实命中率为69.3%。历史上只有两名球员能交出场均至少28分、12篮板和10助攻的赛季数据。奥斯卡·罗伯特森 (Oscar Robertson) 在1962年做到过。约基奇上赛季做到过。而今年，他以惊人的效率做到了这一点，并同时在篮板榜和助攻榜领跑全联盟。当约基奇在场时，掘金是全联盟最具统治力的球队；而当他坐在板凳上时，他们只是一支介于达拉斯独行侠和芝加哥公牛水平之间的球队。但他必须保住他的评选资格。
最佳新秀 (Rookie of the Year)
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lm6qF?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lm6qF?dark=false
两位荣誉提名： 塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward)，孟菲斯灰熊 | 德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen)，新奥尔良鹈鹕
3. VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，费城76人（赔率+8000）
2. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，独行侠（赔率-425）
1. 康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂（赔率+260）
我将 康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 提升到了最佳新秀竞选的首位，因为他与 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 在出场次数上拉开了巨大的差距，后者因中足扭伤已连续缺席四场。克努佩尔目前比弗拉格多打了9场比赛，场上时间多出近200分钟。正如我们几周前讨论过的，他们的数据不相上下。而现在克努佩尔打得更多。弗拉格需要尽快复出，才能保住赔率优势。更不用说，在投票时可能会出现平局，而克努佩尔的比赛更具含金量——黄蜂队正在竞争附加赛席位，而独行侠则陷入了“摆烂”泥潭。
最佳防守球员 (Defensive Player of the Year)
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FUbvV?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FUbvV?dark=false
两位荣誉提名： 斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙 | 阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)，休斯顿火箭
3. 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)，明尼苏达森林狼（赔率+1500）
2. 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，雷霆（赔率+400）
1. 文班亚马（赔率-400）
这一奖项正变得越来越没有悬念。在12月和1月的部分时间里，鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 凭借对明尼苏达防守的影响力拥有很强的竞争力。而 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 曾拥有最好的赔率，因为他是联盟第一防守强队中的核心盾牌。现在呢？随着文班亚马回归，并在场时构建起真正的精英级防守，同时马刺队的战绩持续攀升，这个奖项看起来更像是一场加冕礼，而非竞争。
维克托·文班亚马封盖国王队前锋 普雷舍斯·阿丘瓦 (Precious Achiuwa) 的投篮。(Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
最佳第六人 (Sixth Man of the Year)
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IaL6k?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IaL6k?dark=false
两位荣誉提名： 小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.)，掘金 | 阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)，雷霆
3. 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)，迈阿密热火（赔率+700）
2. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)，森林狼（赔率+120）
1. 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)，马刺（赔率+225）
我暂时维持这个顺序，但将哈达威移至荣誉提名。在经历了辉煌的1月后，纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 在2月的表现并未达到同样的高度。凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 本月的球场影响力让他稳居榜首。当他带着能量上场并在内线展现强大统治力时，马刺非常需要他的时间。森林狼也需要里德的出场时间，但他没能延续赛季大部分时间里的那种表现。不过，这是一场势均力敌的竞争。
最佳教练 (Coach of the Year)
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/34RS5?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/34RS5?dark=false
两位荣誉提名： 乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)，凤凰城太阳 | 查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee)，黄蜂
3. J.B.·比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)，活塞（赔率-275）
2. 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla)，凯尔特人（赔率+500）
1. 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，马刺（赔率+650）
我依然支持马刺队的教练，但本周我为此反复纠结了十几次。J.B.·比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)、乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 和 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 都当之无愧。比克斯塔夫率领活塞领跑东部。马祖拉让凯尔特人的表现远超季初预期。而约翰逊则带领着一支极其年轻的马刺队去争夺联盟最佳战绩。
最快进步球员 (Most Improved Player)
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2gyJ9?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2gyJ9?dark=false
两位荣誉提名： 安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black)，奥兰多魔术 | 基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George)，犹他爵士
3. 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，亚特兰大老鹰（赔率-105）
2. 莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins)，密尔沃基雄鹿（赔率+1400）
1. 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者（赔率+500）
我仍然在纠结关于“年度进步”该如何定义。杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 目前是赔率热门，但他大部分的进步其实发生在上个赛季，只是在证明自己的过程中过早受伤了。这并不意味着他不配拿这个奖，但我确实认为 莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins) 和 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 目前在场上的实际进步幅度更大。基昂特·乔治本该参与竞争，但他最近缺席了犹他爵士队过去九场比赛中的八场。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA Awards Watch: 65-game rule brings uncertainty; Kon Knueppel, Nikola Jokić move up
NBA Awards Watch: 65-game rule brings uncertainty; Kon Knueppel, Nikola Jokić move up
Each week through the end of the NBA regular season, we’ll check in on where the major individual awards races stand. Last week, we didn’t have any games to analyze because of the All-Star break, so we dove into the All-NBA teams. But this week, we’ve seen some pretty heightened conversations about what might happen because of the 65-game rule, so let’s talk about it.
It seems like the NBA put this 65-game threshold into end-of-season awards eligibility as a way to put potential new broadcast partners at ease. If you’re going to pay billions of dollars to broadcast primetime games, you’re going to want the primetime players to participate. And the era of “load management” has often been blamed on the players, rather than the teams keeping guys out of games to keep mileage low.
Since 2023-24, players have had to play at least 65 games to make All-NBA and All-Defense or to be eligible for the MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player awards. Already this season, we have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry, LeBron James and Anthony Davis ineligible, among other big names.
Kawhi Leonard can miss three more games before he’s ineligible. Nikola Jokić can miss one more game before he becomes ineligible. Victor Wembanyama can miss three more games before he no longer qualifies. Luka Dončić can miss five more. Even reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has people worried that he might not qualify. He’s out with an abdominal injury and has already missed 11 games, and we don’t have an exact timetable on when he’ll return.
This might be the type of season that ends up challenging the league to make a potential change to the 65-game rule. Maybe it’s not outright abolishment, but we could see certain amendments to either the total number of games to qualify or some loopholes being introduced. Having Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić, Dončić, Giannis and other superstars completely out of the top awards races would put a massive question mark on how the league is approaching this. While we’ve had debatable award winners in plenty of seasons, creating an “MVP by default” doesn’t feel like the best way to celebrate the elite players in the league.
For a league that is very online and always worried about its image, how is that going to shake out?
With that said, let’s get into this week’s Awards Watch. (Odds via BetMGM and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)
MVP
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z9rc9?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/z9rc9?dark=false
Five honorable mentions: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
5. **Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+2500 to win, previously fourth)**4. **Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+425 to win, previously third)**3. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1400, previously fifth)
This positioning might be an overreaction to Wembanyama taking down the Pistons with a 21-point, 17-rebound, six-block night as Cunningham scored 16 points on just 5-of-26 from the field. The Spurs continue to win, and they’re charging toward the best record in the NBA. They’re not far behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top record in the NBA, and even though Wemby has missed 14 games, his season has been undeniably one of the most valuable. His presence turns them into the best defense in the league. His offense is still extremely difficult to handle. His stats are absurd, and he’s trending upward at the right time.
Brown and Cunningham battling it out in the Eastern Conference has been incredible. Each player has been a leader on both ends of the floor, and they’re atop the conference. Brown’s narrative is a bit better, considering the absence of Jayson Tatum this season. Cunningham has the narrative of his team only winning 14 games two years ago, and his development and value have propelled him to superstardom. All three of these guys have rightful stakes in the MVP ballot.
However, Wembanyama, Cunningham or even Brown would only win this award if Jokić or Gilgeous-Alexander aren’t eligible. It’s worth noting that there’s been a heavy change in Cunningham’s odds. His odds were +1600 two weeks ago when we last checked in on this award. Since then, it’s moved toward +425. Wembanyama went from off the board to fourth in odds. And Brown’s odds have gone from +4000 two weeks ago to +2500 now. People are definitely projecting Gilgeous-Alexander and/or Jokić not making it to 65 games.
Would this actually end up being an MVP win by default if Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander aren’t eligible? Would the player or the fans care? Would we (collectively) not label it as such the further away we get from this season? The 65-game rule could lead to some complicated ways of viewing these honors this season and moving forward.
2. **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-125 to win, previously first)**1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+300 to win, previously second)
I’m moving Jokić ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander because of the shrinking disparity in their games missed. Jokić has missed five more games, and that number might dwindle even more before SGA is back on the floor. If Jokić is going to be eligible for the award by season’s end, his numbers are undeniable. It’s wild to think a player averaging 31.6 points, 6.4 assists and 4.4 rebounds with 55.4/39.0/89.2 shooting splits and a 67.0 percent true shooting overall, as SGA is, wouldn’t have the numbers to overcome another candidate, especially when you’re talking about the best player on the best team. That’s how unbelievable Jokić’s season has gone.
The Nuggets star is putting up 28.8 points, 10.5 assists and 12.5 rebounds with 58.4/42.1/83.6 shooting splits and a 69.3 percent true shooting. Only two players have put up season averages of at least 28 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. Oscar Robertson did it in 1962. Jokić did it last season. This year, he’s doing it with otherworldly efficiency, and he’s leading the league in both rebounding and assists. The Nuggets are the most dominant team in the league with Jokić on the floor, and they’re somewhere between the Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls with him on the bench. But he has to keep his eligibility.
Rookie of the Year
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lm6qF?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Lm6qF?dark=false
Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
**3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+8000 to win)**2. **Cooper Flagg, Mavericks (-425 to win)**1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+260 to win)
I’m moving Knueppel up to the top of the Rookie of the Year race because he’s creating a pretty big gulf in games played between him and Flagg, who has missed four straight games with a mid-foot sprain. Knueppel now has nine more games played and nearly 200 more minutes on the court. As we talked about a couple of weeks ago, their numbers measure up with each other. And now Knueppel is playing a lot more. Flagg will need to come back soon to give himself the best chance of keeping odds in his favor. Not to mention, there could be a potential tiebreaker in voting with Knueppel’s games meaning more, thanks to the Hornets being a Play-In Tournament team as the Mavericks sink into the tank.
Defensive Player of the Year
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FUbvV?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FUbvV?dark=false
Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
**3. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+1500 to win)****2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+400 to win)**1. Wembanyama (-400 to win)
This one is becoming less and less of a race. During December and maybe parts of January, Gobert had a really good case for the impact he was having on Minnesota’s defense. However, Holmgren had the best betting odds because he was a notable defender on the best defense in the NBA. Now? With Wembanyama back and creating a truly elite defense when he’s on the floor as the Spurs continue to charge up the standings, this feels more like a coronation than a race for the award.
Victor Wembanyama blocks a shot by Kings forward Precious Achiuwa. (Daniel Dunn / Imagn Images)
Sixth Man of the Year
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IaL6k?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IaL6k?dark=false
Two honorable mentions: Tim Hardaway Jr., Nuggets | Ajay Mitchell, Thunder
**3. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat (+700 to win)****2. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+120 to win)**1. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+225 to win)
I’m sticking with this same order for now, but moving Hardaway into the honorable mentions. We haven’t seen Reid really light it up in February after a brilliant January showing. Johnson’s impact on the court this month is keeping him in the top spot. The Spurs really need his minutes when he comes in with energy and a great presence in the paint. The Wolves need Reid’s minutes too, but he’s not delivering the way he has for much of the season. This is a very close race, though.
Coach of the Year
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/34RS5?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/34RS5?dark=false
Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns | Charles Lee, Hornets
**3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-275 to win)****2. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics (+500 to win)**1. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+650 to win)
I’m sticking with the Spurs’ coach, but I flip-flopped on this a dozen times this week. Bickerstaff, Mazzulla and Johnson are all deserving. Bickerstaff’s Pistons lead the East. Mazzulla has the Celtics far better than most thought they could ever be this season. Johnson has a very young Spurs team pushing for the best record in the league.
Most Improved Player
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2gyJ9?dark=true
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2gyJ9?dark=false
Two honorable mentions: Anthony Black, Orlando Magic | Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
**3. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks (-105 to win)**2. **Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks (+1400 to win)**1. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (+500 to win)
I still struggle with what we’re supposed to believe when it comes to year-to-year improvement. Johnson is the betting favorite right now, but the majority of his improvement happened the season before. He just got injured early in proving it. That doesn’t mean he won’t be deserving of this award, but I do think the actual improvement on the court from Rollins and Avdija is greater at the moment. George would be in the running, but he’s missed eight of the last nine games for Utah.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic