By Mike Finger | San Antonio Express-News (SAEN), 2026-02-24 16:02:33
2026年2月23日，星期一，在底特律举行的一场 NBA 篮球赛下半场，圣安东尼奥马刺队前锋维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) (1) 在对阵底特律活塞队的比赛中得分后庆祝。(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
本专栏的老读者都非常清楚，这是一个反博彩的阵地。在线体育博彩及其相关讨论的爆炸式增长已成为社会的一大祸害，它正在毁掉我们的观赛体验。
别把钱花在这些东西上。它只会让你——以及我们所有人——感到痛苦。
老读者们知道的另一件事是，这里也是一个“反奖项”区域。在整个体育媒体界，每天有太多的带宽被浪费在争论谁更有资格入选名人堂、常规赛最有价值球员 (MVP) 的投票归属，或者是海斯曼奖 (Heisman Trophy) 的竞逐上。
这些争论通常令人头脑发昏。而当这种争论在赛季结束前几个月就开始时，几乎总是毫无意义的。
现在，在交代完这些前提后，我有义务告知各位一件事：
有一个非常真实——甚至可能是极大的——可能性：文班亚马即将成为 NBA 历史上最年轻的 MVP。
而莫名其妙的是，似乎几乎还没人察觉到这一点。
尽管我十分不情愿，但周二早上我还是翻阅了各大在线博彩公司提供的最新 MVP 赔率。乍一看，这些数字基本符合预期。
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)，这两位前 MVP 兼总冠军得主目前正处于数据顶尖的赛季，被所有人视为压倒性的热门。凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)，这支东部最佳球队中的最佳球员，也紧随其后。
随后，排在杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 之上的，便是文班亚马。他的赔率被视为“冷门”：1 赔 18 (Bet365)、1 赔 25 (DraftKings)，甚至是 1 赔 27 (FanDuel)。
冒着被某些显而易见的言论反驳的风险，我不得不问一句：他们是不是掌握了什么我不知道的消息？
在此，我可以分享我所知道的信息：本赛季 MVP 的两位领跑者，约基奇和亚历山大，可能无法打满足够的比赛来获得评选资格。截至周二，约基奇已经缺席了 16 场比赛。而亚历山大因腹部伤势缺席了 2 月份的大部分比赛，在下周重新接受评估前，他至少将缺席 11 场。
如果约基奇再缺席两场，他就无法达到入选赛季末奖项所需的 65 场最低出场数要求。如果亚历山大再缺席六场，他也将无法达标。虽然文班亚马在马刺剩下的 25 场比赛中也只能负担得起 4 场的缺席，但他目前是这三人中唯一没有受到任何持久伤病困扰的一位。
仅凭这一点就能让文班亚马成为热门吗？绝对不是。亚历山大仍然拥有强大的数据支撑，而且他有足够的缓冲空间，可以认为自己能打满 65 场。但如果把约基奇从方程式中剔除，对坎宁安和文班亚马来说都将是巨大的助力，届时竞争将变得有趣起来。
如果排名保持现状，即坎宁安所在的底特律活塞队雄踞东部榜首，而亚历山大的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队名列前茅，那么他们中的一人很可能会获奖。
但如果你还没注意到的话，文班亚马所在的马刺队已经取得了九连胜。其中八场胜利的领先优势达到了两位数，而最近一场胜利是在全国直播中，在坎宁安的主场对底特律进行了一次令人印象深刻的“血洗”。马刺现在面对雷霆和活塞的总战绩为 5 胜 1 负，而且他们在战绩榜上仅落后俄克拉荷马城 2.5 个胜场。
如果雷霆在 24 胜 1 负的梦幻开局后，继续保持目前 20 胜 13 负这种“优秀但非顶级”的下半程节奏会怎样？如果亚历山大的腹部伤势持续反复会怎样？如果马刺继续一路高歌猛进，甚至在连续六个赛季无缘季后赛后，最终拿下了全联盟最佳战绩又会怎样？
届时，对于这位身高 7 英尺 4 英寸的法国人，难道不会产生极具说服力的论据吗？根据每一项进阶指标，他都是目前为止联盟中最具统治力的防守球员，同时还交出了最佳阵容级别的进攻数据。
重申一遍，文班亚马赢得 MVP 并不是最大概率发生的剧本。但在赛季还剩不到三分之一的情况下，他的机会肯定远比 1 赔 27 要高得多。
是的，一次脚踝扭伤就可能让文班亚马休战两周，从而彻底退出竞争。但只要活塞经历一次艰难的客场之旅，约基奇再缺阵两场，亚历山大的康复进程再出现一次反复，文班亚马就可能成为领跑者。在他这个年纪，这将是前所未有的。
韦斯·昂塞尔德 (Wes Unseld) 在 1969 年以新秀身份获奖时，在赛季最后一个月年满 23 岁。德里克·罗斯 (Derrick Rose) 在 2010 年 10 月年满 22 岁，并在七个月后获奖。而文班亚马今年 1 月才刚满 22 岁。
接下来的七周让他成为 MVP，这并非异想天开。
但如果这最终没有发生？请记住，这里始终是一个反博彩、反奖项的阵地。
讨论那些东西根本毫无意义。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Victor Wembanyama, MVP? Why it’s not as unlikely as you think.
Victor Wembanyama, MVP? Why it’s not as unlikely as you think.
San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) celebrates after scoring against the Detroit Pistons during the second half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
As longtime readers of this column know all too well, this is an anti-gambling space. The explosion of online sportsbooks and sportsbook-related discourse has been a scourge on society, and it’s ruining the game-watching experience.
Don’t bet on this stuff. It only makes you — and the rest of us — miserable.
Another thing longtime readers of this column know is that this is an anti-awards zone. Across much of sports media in general, there’s way too much daily bandwidth devoted to debates about Hall of Fame worthiness, or Most Valuable Player voting, or the Heisman Trophy race.
It’s usually mind-numbing. And when the arguments start months before the season even ends, it’s almost always pointless.
Now, with all of that out of the way, it’s my obligation to inform you of something:
There is a very real — and perhaps even strong — possibility that Victor Wembanyama is about to become the youngest MVP in the history of the NBA.
And somehow, almost nobody seems to have caught on to this yet.
As loath as I was to do this, on Tuesday morning I scrolled through the latest MVP odds offered by various online betting houses, and at first glance the numbers looked about as you might expect.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, two former MVPs and league champions in the middle of statistically elite seasons, were listed by everyone as the overwhelming favorites. Cade Cunningham, the best player on the best team in the Eastern Conference, wasn’t far behind.
Then, right above the likes of Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic, there was Wembanyama, checking in as an 18-to-1 (Bet365), 25-to-1 (DraftKings), and even 27-to-1 (FanDuel) longshot.
And at the risk of opening myself up to some pretty obvious retorts, I have to ask: Do they know something I don’t?
Here, for what it’s worth, is what I know: The two leading contenders for this season’s MVP award, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander, might not play in enough games to qualify for it. Heading into Tuesday, Jokic already had missed 16 games. Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s sat out much of February with an abdominal injury, will have missed at least 11 before he’s re-evaluated next week.
If Jokic misses two more games, he can’t get to the 65-game minimum needed to qualify for postseason awards. If Gilgeous-Alexander misses six more, he won’t get there, either. And even though Wembanyama can afford to miss only four of the Spurs’ last 25 games, he’s the only one of the three not currently dealing with any lingering physical ailments.
Does that alone make Wembanyama the favorite? Absolutely not. Gilgeous-Alexander still has a tremendous statistical case, and he has enough of a buffer to think he can get to 65 games. But removing Jokic from the equation would be a big boost to both Cunningham and Wembanyama, and that’s where the race could get interesting.
If the standings remain as they are now, with Cunningham’s Detroit Pistons atop the Eastern Conference and Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder, one of those guys probably will win it.
But in case you haven’t been paying attention, Wembanyama’s Spurs have won nine games in a row. Eight of those victories have been by double-digit scoring margins, and the last one was a thoroughly impressive national-TV throttling of Detroit on Cunningham’s home floor. The Spurs are now 5-1 against the Thunder and Pistons combined, and they’re only 2½ games behind Oklahoma City in the standings.
What if the Thunder, who’ve been a mortal 20-13 since their 24-1 start, continue on their good-but-not-great second-half pace? What if Gilgeous-Alexander’s abdominal issue lingers? What if the Spurs keep rolling, perhaps even finishing with the league’s best record after missing the playoffs in six consecutive seasons?
Won’t there be a pretty convincing case for the 7-foot-4 Frenchman who, by every advanced metric, has been by far the most dominant defensive player in the league, while putting up All-NBA-level offensive numbers as well?
Again, Wembanyama winning the MVP isn’t the most likely scenario. But with a little less than a third of the season to go, his chances sure seem a lot better than 27-to-1.
Yes, one turned ankle might cost Wembanyama two weeks and knock him out of the running altogether. But one tough Pistons road trip, two missed games from Jokic and one rehab setback from Gilgeous-Alexander might make Wembanyama the frontrunner, and at his age that would be unprecedented.
Wes Unseld turned 23 in the final month of the season when he won the award as a rookie in 1969. Derrick Rose turned 22 in October of 2010 and won it seven months later. Wembanyama just turned 22 in January.
It’s not unthinkable that the next seven weeks could make him an MVP.
But if it doesn’t happen? Just remember, this always has been an anti-gambling, anti-awards space.
Talking about that stuff is pointless.
By Mike Finger, via San Antonio Express-News