By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-01-24 22:24:35
赛季进行到四分之一时，我们曾通过数据分析了马刺当时出人意料的成功。当时的目标是着眼于那些能够体现银黑军团赛季初期良好表现的数据，但一些读者建议在赛季半程时再做一篇后续报道，看看这些趋势是否得以延续。
当我们重新审视最初那篇文章中的四项数据时，我们有些惊讶地发现，这些数据至今仍能反映出马刺最大的几项优势。看来，他们在这些领域的出色表现并非赛季初的巧合或偶然，而是他们正在塑造的球队特质的初步体现。那么，就让我们通过数据来解读圣安东尼奥究竟打造了一支怎样的球队。
51.5% – 总篮板率
（此前为 52.3% 总篮板率）
整个赛季以来，马刺都是一支顶级的篮板强队。早在十一月下旬，他们的总篮板率排在联盟第四；而到了一月下旬，他们排名第五，仅次于火箭、黄蜂、活塞和尼克斯。保护篮板似乎是球队的重中之重，而圣安东尼奥在这方面的表现位居联盟前列。
正如前一篇文章中提到的，回顾过去，优秀的马刺队通常都擅长保护防守篮板，而米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 延续了这一传统。银黑军团在保护对手投失的篮板球方面，高居全联盟第二，仅次于黄蜂队。维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 是其中的主要原因。他在卡位方面并非顶级，但文班的场均防守篮板数位列联盟第三，而在至少出战20场的球员中，他的防守篮板率高居第一。他的篮板覆盖范围极广，同时球队也确保其他队友用身体对抗潜在的进攻篮板手。
马刺在进攻篮板方面则没有那么高效。十一月下旬时，他们排在联盟第12位，现在则下滑至第15位。这一下滑可以从他们自感恩节以来的进攻篮板排名（第19位）中得到解释。当时他们的二次进攻得分排名第七，而此后则排在第15位。这背后有几个原因。卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 的几次缺阵对他们造成了影响。部分原因在于凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 近期在进攻篮板上的表现不像赛季初那般惊人。此外，对手现在也预料到马刺会冲击篮板，并对此做出了防范。
虽然攻防两端篮板都能做到顶级固然很好，但只要马刺能继续在阻止对手拼抢进攻篮板方面保持顶级水准，他们就有机会在球权争夺战中占据主动，而这才是最重要的。
11.1次 – 场均对手中距离出手数
（此前为场均11.5次）
另一个延续自过去那支伟大马刺队的趋势是，他们倾向于放给对手中距离跳投，以此来保护内线和三分线。圣安东尼奥至今仍然是迫使对手进行中距离投篮最多的球队。对手在这些出手机会上的投篮命中率依然相当高，但并未高得离谱，为41.9%。
在防止对手在篮下出手方面，这一策略颇有成效。马刺在合理冲撞区的失分数排在联盟第11少，尽管维克托·文班亚马和卢克·科内特不时缺阵，他们限制对手在该区域的投篮命中率仍能排在联盟第六。话虽如此，这些球员的缺阵还是对球队造成了影响，自感恩节以来，他们的排名已大幅下滑，这对于任何看过他们最近派出阵容的球迷来说都不足为奇。尽管如此，银黑军团在不让对手轻易走上罚球线方面全年都表现出色，这与他们迫使对手成为跳投手不无关系。
而在限制对手三分球投射方面，情况则不尽如人意。马刺在赛季第一个月就让对手投进了大量底角三分，而现在依旧如此。球队的防守体系通常将文班置于低位，负责防守一名底角射手，这常常导致他所对位的球员获得空位机会。不过，这也不全是坏事。联盟防守最佳的雷霆队，恰恰是放出底角三分最多的球队，所以很显然，放出这类投篮机会并非致命之举，只要是让“正确”的球员去投篮就行。马刺的对手在底角三分命中率方面排在联盟倒数五位，这可能意味着银黑军团运气不错，但也说明他们知道该放空谁。
考虑到马刺护筐者的实力，只要他们能持续迫使对手成为跳投手，即便偶尔会因放出底角投篮而受到惩罚，球队的防守应该还是稳固的。当然，如果能进一步优化他们的防守轮转，他们将成为一支更加强大的防守之师。
3.0分 – 快攻得分差
（此前为6.6分）
尽管分差有所缩小，马刺的转换进攻得分依然多于对手。他们是在比赛节奏处于联盟平均水平、抢断数排在联盟后半段的情况下做到这一点的，而抢断通常是转化为快攻机会的活球失误的主要来源。
正分差是个好迹象，但在几个相关类别中，马刺的排名发生了一些显著变化。自上次统计以来，圣安东尼奥的比赛节奏明显加快。感恩节时，他们的场均回合数排在联盟第26位。而从那以后，他们排到了第12位。打得更快未必是坏事，而且似乎也得到了教练组的鼓励，但这并没有带来更多的快攻得分。好消息是，即便在节奏加快的情况下，他们的失误率近期也显著下降。因此，虽然提速推快攻没有为圣安东尼奥带来更多快攻得分，但也没有让他们变成一支失误连连的球队。
话虽如此，对手的快攻得分却有所攀升。马刺让对手得到的快攻分数并不算多，只有八支球队比他们更少，但在感恩节时，尽管他们的失误率要高得多，他们在这项数据上却高居联盟第一。有趣的是，根据PBPstats.com的数据，圣安东尼奥在由抢断直接转化而来的失分上依然很少。他们在己方得分后防守对方快攻也做得很好，这并不奇怪。问题似乎出在对手在错失三分和篮下投篮后的快攻得分，以及一些因活球失误而导致的失分上。
圣安东尼奥在转换进攻的较量中仍然占据上风，这是个好消息。但这可能是一个未来需要关注的领域，因为他们已经不像过去那样拥有那么大的优势了。
66.6% – 关键时刻比赛胜率
（此前为70%）
尽管经历了几场令人痛心的惜败——通常是在上演大逆转之后，马刺仍然是联盟中关键时刻表现最出色的球队之一，他们在战至最后一刻的比赛中取得了66.6%的胜率，与雷霆并列第四。对于一支终结者们不时因伤缺阵的年轻球队来说，这是一项贯穿整个赛季的了不起的成就。
令人振奋的是，圣安东尼奥并没有在吃赛季初的老本。自感恩节以来，在比赛最后五分钟分差在五分以内的比赛中，银黑军团取得了9胜5负的战绩，为联盟第四好，仅次于湖人、魔术和掘金。在此期间，他们的三分球命中率出奇地好（39.5%），并且几乎没有失误。当比赛进入最后两分钟，分差在三分以内时，他们的数据就没那么亮眼了，但即便如此，他们在这种情况下依然取得了8胜4负的战绩，是同期联盟第四好的表现。
马刺在比分胶着的比赛中不常跑复杂的战术，而是依赖他们的明星球员维克托·文班亚马和达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 的得分能力，这两位球员的场均关键时刻得分都排在联盟前20。这对于那些还记得“美丽篮球”时期的马刺在比赛末段惯用的战术套路的球迷来说，观感可能不是最刺激的，但结果是毋庸置疑的。希望随着时间的推移，米奇·约翰逊会为他的关键时刻进攻增添更多变化，但就目前而言，将球交给他的终结者们似乎是一种能够减少失误并赢得更多比赛的好策略。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The numbers that explain the Spurs’ winning identity
The numbers that explain the Spurs’ winning identity
Around the quarter-season mark, we took a look at the numbers that explained the Spurs’ then-surprising success. The goal was to look at stats that showed what the Silver and Black were doing well early, but some readers suggested a follow-up article near the halfway mark of the season to see if the trends held.
While going back to the same four stats from the original post, it was somewhat surprising to see that they still reflect some of the Spurs’ biggest strengths. It seems like it wasn’t a coincidence or an anomaly that they did well in those areas to start the season, but the first signs of the identity they were building. So let’s look at the numbers that explain the type of team San Antonio has built.
51.5 – Total rebound percentage
(Previously, 52.3 Total Rebound Percentage)
The Spurs have been an elite rebounding team all season long. Back in late November, they ranked fourth in the league in total rebound percentage, and in late January, they rank fifth, behind the Rockets, Hornets, Pistons, and Knicks. Cleaning the glass seems to be a priority, and San Antonio is among the best in the league at it.
As mentioned in the previous article, the good Spurs teams of the past have generally been great at defensive rebounding, and that’s a tradition Mitch Johnson has continued. The Silver and Black rank second behind only the Hornets in getting opponent misses in the entire league. Victor Wembanyama is a major reason why. He’s not the best at boxouts, but Wemby ranks third in the league in defensive rebounds per game and is first in defensive rebound percentage among players who have suited up for at least 20 games. His rebounding range is huge, and the team makes sure others put bodies on potential offensive rebounders.
Where the Spurs have not been as effective is in offensive rebounding. They ranked 12th in the league back in late January and now rank 15th. The drop is explained by their ranking 19th in offensive rebounding since Thanksgiving. They were seventh in second-chance points then and have ranked 15th since. There are several reasons for it. Some Luke Kornet absences have hurt them. Part of it is Keldon Johnson not being as shockingly prolific on the offensive glass lately as he was earlier. There’s also the fact that opponents now expect the Spurs to crash the glass and protect against it.
While being elite on both would be great, as long as the Spurs remain elite at preventing offensive boards from opponents, they should have a shot at controlling the possession game, which is all that matters.
11.1 – Opponent attempts from midrange per game
(Previously, 11.5 opponent attempts from midrange per game)
Another trend that continues from the past great Spurs teams is their proclivity to allow midrange jumpers as a way to protect the paint and the three-point line. San Antonio is still forcing opponents to take the most midrange shots in the league. The field goal percentage allowed on those looks is still fairly high, but not prohibitively so, at 41.9 percent.
The strategy has worked when it comes to preventing shots at the rim. The Spurs allow the 11th fewest shots in the restricted area and rank sixth in opponent field goal percentage allowed in that range despite missing Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet at times. That said, those absences have affected them, as they have significantly fallen down the ranks since Thanksgiving, which shouldn’t be surprising to anyone who has seen some of the lineups they have trotted out recently. Still, the Silver and Black have been among the best at not sending opponents to the free-throw line throughout the year, which is related to making them jump shooters.
Where things have not been progressing well is in the opponent’s three-point shooting department. The Spurs were allowing a lot of corner threes in their first month and continue to allow a ton of them now. The scheme, which places Wemby as the low man guarding a corner shooter, often results in open looks for his guy. It’s not all bad, though. The Thunder, the best defense in the league, allows the most corner threes, so it’s clearly not a death sentence to give up those looks, as long as the right shooters are taking them. The Spurs’ opponents rank in the bottom five in the NBA in corner three-point percentage, which might mean the Silver and Black are getting lucky, but also that they know who to leave open.
As long as the Spurs force their opponents to be jump shooters, which should not be hard considering the quality of their rim protectors, they should be fine, even if they allow corner shots that occasionally hurt them. Still, cleaning up their rotations would make them an even more formidable defensive team.
3.0 – Fastbreak points differential
(Previously, 6.6 Fastbreak point differential)
Although not by as many points, the Spurs are still getting more transition buckets than their opponents. They do it despite playing at an average pace and ranking in the bottom half of the league in steals, which normally lead to live-ball turnovers that turn into fastbreak opportunities.
The positive number is a good sign, but there have been some notable changes in where the Spurs rank in several related categories. San Antonio has played at a significantly higher pace since the last check-in. At Thanksgiving, they ranked 26th in possessions per game. Since then, they’ve ranked 12th. Playing faster is not necessarily a bad thing, and it seems to be encouraged by the coaching staff, but it hasn’t resulted in more fastbreak points. The good news is that turnover percentage has also decreased significantly lately, even with the increased pace, so while pushing the ball up court has not gotten San Antonio more fastbreak points, it has not turned them into a sloppy team either.
That said, the number of opponent fastbreak points has climbed. The Spurs don’t allow that many, with only eight other teams allowing fewer, but they ranked first in the league at Thanksgiving despite having a much higher turnover percentage. Curiously, San Antonio still allows few points coming directly off steals, according to PBPstats.com. They also defend the break well after made shots, which is not surprising. The issue seems to come from a combination of opponent buckets after missed threes and shots at the rim, plus a few more points allowed off live-ball turnovers.
San Antonio is still winning the battle in transition, which is great news. But this might be an area to monitor going forward, because they don’t have as big an edge as they used to.
66.6% – Win percentage in clutch games
(Previously, 70 percent win percentage in clutch games)
Despite a couple of painful close losses, often preceded by a comeback, the Spurs remain one of the best clutch teams in the league, tying the Thunder at fourth with a 66.6 percent win percentage in games that come down to the wire. It’s an impressive season-long achievement for a young team that has seen its closers sidelined at times due to injury.
The exciting news is that San Antonio hasn’t been coasting on its early success. Since Thanksgiving, the Silver and Black are 9-5 on games in which the lead is five points or fewer in the last five minutes of the game, the fourth-best mark in the league, trailing only the Lakers, Magic, and Nuggets. In that stretch, they have shot surprisingly well on threes (39.5 percent) and have barely turned it over. Their numbers have not been as tidy in the last two minutes of games when they are ahead or behind by three points or fewer, but they are still 8-4 in those situations, the fourth-best mark in the league in the stretch.
The Spurs don’t often run interesting plays in close games, relying on the scoring ability of their stars Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox, who both rank in the top 20 in clutch points per game. It doesn’t make for the most exciting viewing experience, especially for those who remember the set pieces the Beautiful Game Spurs used to run late in games, but it’s hard to argue against the results. Hopefully, as time passes, Mitch Johnson will add more variety to his clutch offense, but for now, it seems that giving the ball to his closers is a good strategy that reduces turnovers and gets more wins than losses.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock