By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-11-28 00:57:09
感恩节之际，尽管遭遇了一些伤病困扰，马刺队仍以12胜5负的战绩位列西部第五。他们将赛季初出人意料的良好开局转化为了持续的成功，即便期间阵容不断调整，并且在维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 缺阵的最近五场比赛中，他们也取得了4胜1负的佳绩。这支球队看起来已经真正具备了强队的实力。
他们优异表现的背后有诸多原因，从文班亚马成长为超级巨星，到德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 近期的杰出发挥。要深入探究，一个好方法就是聚焦于几项能够诠释他们球队特质和优势的关键数据。
52.3% – 总篮板率
在撰写本文时，马刺队的篮板率高居联盟第四。是的，即便联盟篮板王维克托·文班亚马已经缺席了过去五场比赛。
圣安东尼奥马刺队尽管进攻效率不俗，但他们的进攻篮板率为32.2%，排在联盟第12位，这意味着即使投篮不中，他们仍有约三分之一的机会拼下前场篮板，延续进攻回合。有两名球员为马刺队在进攻篮板上的稳固表现做出了主要贡献：卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 和凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)。科内特上赛季在冲抢进攻篮板方面表现得像一头野兽，一度在该项数据上仅次于史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams)。他最近的表现虽不如此前那般抢眼，但当文班亚马回归后，情况应会有所改善。与此同时，约翰逊的场均进攻篮板数位列联盟第45位，填补了杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 上赛季作为球队指定篮板冲击者的角色。
在防守端，马刺队的防守篮板率排在联盟第六，能抢下对手71%的投失球。圣安东尼奥马刺队过去曾非常强调防守篮板，但近年来却举步维艰，排名一直在联盟后三分之一。本赛季的转变堪称惊艳，这主要归功于维克托·文班亚马的引领，他的场均防守篮板数领跑全联盟。此外，他们在限制对手二次进攻得分方面也排在联盟第九。不出所料，在文班缺阵的过去五场比赛里，他们的这项表现远不如前，但即便如此，仍然优于联盟中的16支球队。
11.5次 – 对手的中距离出手数
多年以来，马刺队的标志性防守策略之一就是迫使对手选择中距离跳投，而非效率更高的出手方式。这一趋势在本赛季得以延续。
马刺队放给对手的中距离跳投次数在联盟高居第一，且领先优势明显。对手在这些出手的命中率达到了可观的41.8%，但这仍然是单位回合得分效率非常低的一种进攻方式，特别是考虑到这类投篮很少能造成犯规。每一次圣安东尼奥马刺队成功诱使对手在这里出手，都算是一次防守的胜利，因为这意味着对手的投篮并非来自那些效率更高的区域。而内线的防守则会完成剩下的工作。
圣安东尼奥马刺队限制对手的篮下出手数排在联盟第十少，篮下命中率更是联盟最低，考虑到他们拥有维克托·文班亚马，这一点并不令人意外。他们在限制合理冲撞区外的油漆区出手数方面也排在联盟第五少，限制对手的油漆区得分则位列联盟第二少，仅次于雷霆队。尽管他们会让对手投不少三分球，而且运气不佳地让对手投出了很高的命中率，但面对马刺的球队投篮分布图显示，这支银黑军团成功地将对手变成了跳投大队。
允许对手大量中距离出手的次数看似是一个次要因素，但这展现了马刺队一以贯之的球队特质——他们擅长主导防守，迫使对手以他们希望的方式来出手。
+6.6分 – 快攻得分差
马刺队的快攻得分排在联盟第十。这项数据令人惊讶的地方在于，他们其实是一支慢节奏球队，比赛节奏（pace）仅排在联盟第26位。对此的解释是，他们要么在进攻回合初期（进攻时钟剩余24-22秒时）就迅速完成得分（该项得分联盟第八），要么在没有好的出手机会时就放慢节奏，从而拉低了整体节奏。
考虑到球队的人员配置，他们在快攻中的成功是合乎逻辑的。他们拥有能够快速推进球的后场飞毛腿，并且擅长在抢断后冲击篮筐。马刺队应该继续寻求这些快速得分机会，尤其是在文班亚马缺阵期间，因为这对于弥补球队可能存在的三分火力不足至关重要。
而构成这一正向得分差的另一个方面，或许更加有趣。尽管失误率排在联盟第21位，马刺队却是全联盟限制对手快攻得分最少的球队。这是一个奇特的现象，根据 Inpredictable 的数据，在马刺队失误后，对手完成首次投篮的平均用时是全联盟最长的，并且有效命中率排在联盟第五低。特别是在抢断之后，根据 PBP Stats 的统计，对手利用马刺的被抢断失误所得到的得分排在联盟倒数第三，有效命中率也是联盟倒数第三低。
不知何故，圣安东尼奥马刺队并没有因为自己的失误而付出被对手打转换进攻的代价，反而能让对手为失误买单，这对他们的进攻帮助极大。
70% – 关键时刻比赛胜率
马刺队曾有一个令人沮丧的习惯：建立领先后却无法保持优势。好消息是，即便他们让对手追回比分，也能很好地赢下这些焦灼的比赛，目前他们在进入关键时刻的比赛中取得了7胜3负的战绩。
虽然赛季尚早，但这与过去几年相比已经是一个巨大的转变。在2024/25赛季，他们的关键时刻胜率排在联盟第19位，战绩为17胜20负。而在更早的赛季里，他们的记录甚至更差。总的来看，马刺队本赛季掌控了第四节，他们在末节的净效率值高居联盟第三，并且优于第一节和第二节的表现。这是一件好事，因为他们实际上是联盟中第三节表现最差的球队之一，净效率值为-5.3，排名联盟第22位。
理想情况下，马刺队最好能强大到足以轻松大胜大部分对手，从而减少打关键球的场次，但这不太可能发生，至少本赛季是如此。因此，他们在关键时刻能够终结比赛，这一点令人欣慰，其中文班亚马起到了表率作用，而福克斯若能重拾其关键先生本色，则有望为球队提供一个值得信赖的精英级第二选择。
对于一支相对年轻的球队来说，圣安东尼奥马刺队在紧张时刻表现得从容不迫，这令人鼓舞，也解释了他们为何能取得如此优异的战绩。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The numbers that explain the Spurs’ success
The numbers that explain the Spurs’ success
At Thanksgiving, the Spurs are fifth in the West with a 12-5 record despite some bad injury luck. They turned a surprisingly good start into sustained success even while having to deal with multiple moving pieces, and have gone 4-1 in the last five games, which Victor Wembanyama has missed. They seem to be a legitimately good team.
There are many reasons for their good play, from Wembanyama emerging as a superstar to De’Aaron Fox’s stellar performances of late. A good way to narrow things that is to focus on a few numbers that explain their identity and strengths.
52.3 – Total rebound percentage
At the time of writing this, the Spurs rank fourth in the league in rebound percentage. Yes, despite missing the league leader in rebounding, Victor Wembanyama, for the past five games.
San Antonio, despite scoring efficiently, ranks 12th in offensive rebound percentage at 32.2 percent, which means that even when they miss, they keep the possession alive around a third of the time. Two players are largely responsible for keeping the Spurs solid on the offensive boards: Luke Kornet and Keldon Johnson. Kornet was a beast at rebounding misses last season and at one point, only trailed Steven Adams in the category. He’s not been as prolific lately but should improve when Wembanyama returns. Johnson, meanwhile, ranks 45th in the league in offensive boards per game, filling the role Jeremy Sochan had last season as a designated glass crasher.
On the other end, the Spurs rank sixth in defensive rebound percentage, recovering 71 percent of opponent misses. San Antonio used to emphasise defensive rebounding but really struggled in recent years, ranking in the bottom third of the league. The turnaround has been terrific and has been spearheaded by Victor Wembanyama, who leads the league in defensive rebounds per game. They also rank ninth in opponent second-chance points. Unsurprisingly, in the past five games, which Wemby has missed, they have not been nearly as good, but they are still better at it than 16 other teams.
11.5 – Opponent attempts from midrange
For years, one of the staples of the Spurs was trying to coerce opponents into taking midrange jumpers instead of more efficient shots. The trend continues this season.
The Spurs allow the most midrange jumpers in the league by a decent margin. Opponents shoot a respectable 41.8 percent on those looks, but that’s a very low points per possession outcome, especially considering those shots don’t often result in fouls. Every time San Antonio gets them to pull the trigger, it’s a win because it means field goal attempts are not coming from more efficient spots. And the interior defense does the rest.
San Antonio allows the 10 fewest shots at the rim and the lowest field goal percentage, which is not surprising since they have Victor Wembanyama. They also allow the fifth fewest shots in the paint outside of the restricted area and the second fewest points in the paint, behind only the Thunder. They do allow a fair amount of threes and have been unlucky with how effective opponents have been at converting those looks, but the shot profile from teams facing the Spurs shows that the Silver and Black turn them into jump shooters.
The number of midrange shots allowed might seem like a minor factor, but it shows a continuity of identity from the Spurs as a team that is good at dictating which shots it wants opponents to take.
6.6 – Fastbreak points differential
The Spurs rank 10th in fastbreak points. The surprising thing about the stat is that the Spurs are a slow team, ranking 26th in pace. The explanation for it is that they are either going for quick buckets immediately (eighth in points made with the shot clock between 24-22 seconds) or slowing down if a good look is not there, which brings down their pace.
Their success on the break makes sense, given their personnel. They have speedsters who can advance the ball and are comfortable attacking the rim, especially after steals. The Spurs should continue to hunt those quick buckets, especially with Wembanyama out, because they are going to be huge to make up for a likely deficit in three-point shooting.
The other aspect that creates the positive differential is arguably more interesting. The Spurs allow the fewest fastbreak points in the league despite ranking 21st in turnover percentage. It’s a curious situation, as opponents take the longest to shoot after a turnover against the Spurs in the entire league and post the fifth-lowest effective field goal percentage, according to Inpredictable. Off steals in particular, opponents have scored the third-fewest points and have posted the third-lowest effective field goal percentage, per PBP Stats.
Somehow, San Antonio is not paying for mistakes in the form of transition buckets but is making others pay, and it’s really helping their offence.
70% – Win percentage in clutch games
The Spurs have had a frustrating habit of building leads and then not sustaining them. The good news is that even when they let opponents back in the game, they do a good job of getting close wins, currently holding a 7-3 record in games that go down to the clutch.
It’s early in the season, but it has been a major turnaround from past years. In 2024/25, they finished 19th in clutch win percentage, winning 17 games and losing 20. In prior seasons, they had an even worse record. In general, the Spurs have owned fourth quarters, posting the third-best net rating in the league in the final frame and a better mark than in the first and second periods. It’s a good thing, since they are actually one of the worst third-quarter teams in the league, posting a negative net rating of 5.3 that has them sitting at 22nd.
Ideally, the Spurs would get good enough to blow out most opponents and rarely have to play close games, but that’s not likely to happen, at least this season. So it’s a good thing that they have been getting it done in the clutch, with Wembanyama leading the way and Fox hopefully providing an elite second option to rely on, if he regains his clutch excellence.
For a relatively young team, San Antonio seems comfortable in intense moments, which is encouraging and helps explain why they have a good record.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock