By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, 2026-01-02 21:36:00
2025年，NBA给我们带来了二月震惊联盟的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 交易，五月达拉斯独行侠队以1.8%的概率赢得乐透抽签，六月俄克拉荷马城雷霆队历史性地夺得总冠军，以及2025-26赛季前半段新星与竞争者在场上不断涌现，场外则重磅丑闻频出。
当时间的车轮滚入2026年，前方又将上演怎样的故事？
雷霆队在追逐卫冕冠军的道路上能斩获多少场胜利？他们来自圣安东尼奥的新对手能否阻止一个王朝的诞生？密尔沃基雄鹿队的扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和独行侠队的安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 的交易大戏将走向何方？这些风波是否会延续到休赛期？
随着总裁亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 继续为NBA的未来留下自己的印记，联盟扩张——无论是在本土还是海外——的下一步棋将如何走？又有哪些规则变更可能即将到来？
这些仅仅是联盟中的教练、高管和球探们今年将密切关注的部分看点。让我们来逐一解析这十大焦点，首先从洛杉矶开始，那里是联盟中最富传奇色彩的球队之一，而其队史最伟大的球员正走向一个十字路口。
更多内容：需要复习一下本赛季NBA的动态吗？这里是您在2025-26赛季错过的精彩
勒布朗的下一个（也可能是最后一个）决定
布莱恩·文霍斯特 (Brian Windhorst)： 在本赛季初，洛杉矶湖人队篮球运营总裁罗勃·佩林卡 (Rob Pelinka) 在处理勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的未来这一微妙问题时，试图表现出尽可能的尊重。
“我们希望勒布朗的故事能以湖人球员的身份退役而告终，”佩林卡说道。“关于勒布朗和他的未来，我们首先要做的就是给予他绝对的尊重，让他和他的家人一起选择自己故事的篇章，决定他将继续打多少年。”
这并非任何人的过错，但湖人队面临一个固有的问题。周二刚满41岁的詹姆斯比东契奇年长15岁。两位超级巨星的生涯时间线并不匹配，而且正如本赛季所展示的，以目前的阵容配置，他们并肩作战并不能让湖人成为总冠军的有力竞争者。这是上赛季东契奇交易意外降临的副产品。尽管从即战力来看，这次联手并不合拍，但他们当时必须完成这笔交易。
詹姆斯和东契奇两人合计9800万美元的薪水（约占工资帽的64%），这并非一条可持续的发展道路。这也是湖人队优先考虑续约26岁的东契奇而非詹姆斯的原因之一。
联盟高管告诉ESPN，本赛季结束后，詹姆斯有三条理性的道路可走。
- 接受大幅降薪留在湖人。（一位高管称之为“德克选项”，指的是德克·诺维茨基 (Dirk Nowitzki) 在生涯末期为了留在达拉斯独行侠队并帮助球队补强阵容而接受大幅降薪的做法）。
- 以自由球员身份加盟另一支球队。
- 退役。
“勒布朗场均仍能贡献20分，命中率达到50%。他可以帮助一支球队赢球，”一位主教练说。“你只需要找到一个合适的环境。”
但哪里才是那个合适的环境？詹姆斯会愿意颠覆自己的生活吗？他的健康状况能否保持？佩林卡和联盟办公室所期盼的那种体面的结局能否实现？如果詹姆斯5300万美元的薪水从湖人队的账本上消失，他们又将如何利用这部分财务灵活性？
勒布朗选择的道路将是一个关键的转折点。
字母哥风波进入新的一年
蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)： 这是2025年的重磅新闻之一——同样也是2024年、2023年和2022年的……你懂的——但2026年感觉将是字母哥风波迎来其转折点的一年。
“靴子终将落地，”一位西部联盟的高管表示，“无论结果如何。”
阿德托昆博和密尔沃基雄鹿队以主场负于华盛顿奇才队的比赛结束了2025年。在休赛期做出裁掉并使用延伸条款支付达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 的合同、以及签下自由球员中锋迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 以进一步安抚这位两届MVP的惊人举动后，雄鹿队目前在东部联盟排名第11位。
阿德托昆博继续表示，他目前对讨论在密尔沃基之外的未来不感兴趣。我们采访的一些联盟内部人士也同意他这种谨慎的做法。
“如果他等到夏天（再提出交易申请），”一位东部联盟的球探说，“他将在决定自己未来方面掌握绝对的主动权。”
消息人士重申，密尔沃基将在本交易窗口期专注于在2月5日截止日前围绕阿德托昆博补强阵容。考虑到阿德托昆博是这个竞争开放的分区里公认的最佳球员——雄鹿队仅落后第四名的多伦多猛龙队五场比赛——球队仍然看到了冲击季后赛的机会。“他们不会在赛季中期交易他，”一位西部球探说。
但只要密尔沃基继续挣扎，并且在交易截止日到来之前，全联盟的目光都将聚焦在雄鹿身上，看他们的立场是否会改变。
反摆烂和获奖资格规则可能引发的骚动
文霍斯特： “在2026年，我很期待看到联盟将如何对其‘矫枉过正’的政策做出再次‘矫枉过正’的反应，”一位资深的东部高管说道。
他这番话虽是调侃，但也表达了对2023年劳资协议给联盟带来的剧变持续的不满。为了促进竞争平衡，旨在限制高支出球队建队的新规则已经带来了许多预期之中和意料之外的后果。
至于2026年最大的潜在变化，这位高管指向了老板们最近关于更严格反摆烂规则的讨论。就像在联盟竞争平衡问题上一样，多年来联盟在应对这一挑战方面收效甚微。
而且，这已经不仅仅是联盟垫底球队为了在选秀大会前列获得能改变球队命运的球员而进行的策略。近年来，一些球队摆烂是为了确保他们能保留住前六、前八或前十顺位的受保护选秀权，而这些选秀权的所有权往往在多年前就已被交易。
实力深厚的2026届选秀班底正在加剧这种情况，引发了对新反摆烂措施的强烈呼声。
“这种声音只会越来越大，”另一位东部高管表示。“到了春天，我想我们每三场比赛中就有一场是面对正在摆烂的球队。”
65场规则也是一个讨论的话题，因为联盟正为赛季末各大奖项的争夺可能出现的戏剧性场面做准备。詹姆斯，这位创纪录连续21次入选NBA最佳阵容的球员，在因背部问题缺席了赛季初的几周后，正处于失去评选资格的边缘。
尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)，过去五年在MVP投票中非冠即亚的球员，也可能因左膝过度伸展而缺阵，具体取决于他休战的时间，从而失去评选资格。阿德托昆博也正逼近缺阵场次的上限，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 也是如此，他可能因此错失连续第二座年度最佳防守球员奖。
如果失去获奖资格的超级巨星数量持续增加，尽管该规则达到了联盟的预期效果，但要求变革的呼声预计将愈发高涨。
文班亚马与马刺队崛起为联盟顶级强队
邦坦普斯： 在向联盟内部人士征求关于2026年主要看点的意见时，圣安东尼奥及其7英尺4英寸的大个子几乎位居他们名单的首位。
“他们正在带回那种我喜欢的文化，”第二位东部高管说道。“有些人可能觉得这很老套，但我喜欢看到当切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 罚球不中时，文班亚马（Wembanyama）疯狂庆祝的样子。他们真的在全力营造竞争和宿敌的氛围。未来几年，他们将与俄克拉荷马城一决高下。”
除了文班亚马的出色表现，卫冕年度最佳新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 也取得了巨大的飞跃。迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 作为新秀立刻做出了贡献。这对年轻组合与德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 配合默契。中锋卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 是一笔出色的自由球员签约。凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 作为球队中效力时间最长的球员和精神领袖，正打出职业生涯最好的篮球。
没有人——包括马刺队自己——预料到如此迅速的崛起。一些人曾认为马刺队有能力冲击西部前六的席位，但他们没有预见到圣安东尼奥会以西部第二的身份进入新的一年，并在12天内三胜雷霆。
现在的问题是，马刺队能否在没有经历过先前季后赛心碎（通常是通往总决赛的必经之路）的情况下，一路过关斩将，并在今年春天扳倒卫冕冠军。
“他们已经让自己成为俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的合法威胁了吗？最近的比赛结果表明是这样，”一位西部球探说。“我需要看到这种状态能持续一段时间。仅仅几个月还不够，但趋势肯定是在朝那个方向发展。”
弗拉格的下一步
文霍斯特： 一位总经理迅速指出了他认为的2026年最重要的看点：
“达拉斯的那个少年。”
独行侠队新秀库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，于12月21日年满19岁，他没有辜负外界的极高期望，展现了超越其年龄和经验水平的技巧与沉稳。这并非贬低2025届选秀班底，但弗拉格无疑正展现出成为联盟未来基石的潜质。
弗拉格的潜力，加上前任总经理尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison)（他将其任期内的声誉押在了安东尼·戴维斯的交易上）的离任，给独行侠队的未来留下了许多疑问。围绕弗拉格建队是唯一的选择，但这一过程的速度以及它对独行侠队老将们，即戴维斯，所带来的连锁反应，可能会产生广泛的影响。
尽管潜在的交易以及由谁来操刀——独行侠目前由联合临时总经理马特·里卡尔迪 (Matt Riccardi) 和迈克尔·芬利 (Michael Finley) 运营——可能会带来许多悬念，但真正的故事在于弗拉格的成长潜力。
即使是那些一进入联盟就产生巨大影响的少年天才——例如詹姆斯、东契奇、文班亚马和凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)——也需要时间在联盟中留下自己的印记。例如，他们中没有一个能在生涯前两个赛季就带领球队进入季后赛。对弗拉格的期望，尤其是在独行侠可能对阵容进行改造的情况下，或许仍将保持谨慎。但这并不意味着他在2026年不会吸引大量的关注。
雷霆队对历史的追逐
邦坦普斯： NBA的历史是由王朝定义的。这也就是为什么联盟创纪录地连续七个赛季没有出现卫冕冠军的现象如此反常。
俄克拉荷马城有机会改变这一点。
雷霆队，即便在近期对阵马刺时的低迷表现之后，继2024-25赛季豪取68胜后，本赛季正走在豪取近70胜的轨道上。雷霆队+14.2的净效率值，比上赛季高出1.5分，有望打破NBA历史纪录。尽管因伤病导致MVP热门人选谢伊·吉尔吉斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 身边的阵容不断轮换，雷霆队依然享受着这样的成功。全明星前锋杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 在因休赛期手腕手术缺席第一个月后，仍在寻找状态。
“这不是一支容易自满的球队，”一位西部球探说。“但正如我们所见，卫冕真的非常困难。”
几个实力强劲的挑战者正虎视眈眈。丹佛掘金队在上赛季的西部决赛中将雷霆队拖入了七场大战。休斯顿火箭队在揭幕战中可以说与雷霆队上演了赛季最佳对决，并且自那以后变得更强了。吉尔吉斯-亚历山大表示，在短时间内三次输给马刺队后，雷霆不能说自己比马刺更强。
这就是为什么，尽管拥有华丽的履历、耀眼的核心球星和深度十足、技术全面的阵容，并非所有人都相信雷霆会成为自2017-18赛季金州勇士队以来第一支卫冕冠军。
“我认为他们做不到，”第二位西部高管谈到雷霆队时说。“这样说很容易，但我认为他们承受的审视太多了。”
快船队，及其在积分榜上的位置
文霍斯特： 联盟对快船队的兴趣更多是在场外而非场内。关于Aspiration公司和科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的调查已经在幕后进行了数月。NBA将这项调查外包给了纽约的Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz律师事务所，这是标准程序，而律师的计费工时正在不断累积。
官方尚未公布时间表，但随着快船队将在二月主办全明星周末，如果届时问题仍未解决，全球的聚光灯都将聚焦于此。无论结果如何，这都将成为2026年初的一大新闻。
快船队老板史蒂夫·鲍尔默 (Steve Ballmer) 在其他老板中赢得了良好的声誉，他的净资产约为1500亿美元。在与联盟内部人士交谈时，他们认为这些是需要考虑的重要因素。
“你必须小心，不要和像鲍尔默这样的人陷入（法律）斗争。你必须掌握证据，”一位竞争对手的球队总裁说道。（鲍尔默和快船队已强烈否认在“Pablo Torre Finds Out”播客报道后出现的规避工资帽的指控。）
快船队灾难性的赛季，以与队史标志性人物和未来的名人堂成员克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 的不愉快“分手”以及在场上的糟糕表现为标志。即使在以一波五连胜结束2025年后，洛杉矶队的胜率仍然比五成低了10场。
而且，原本被期望争夺西部前四的快船队，偏偏选错了赛季在积分榜上急剧下滑。由于2019年保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 的那笔交易，联盟领头羊雷霆队拥有快船队在六月份的无保护首轮选秀权。
交易季将如何影响自由球员市场的狂潮
邦坦普斯： NBA现行的劳资协议已执行过半，随着各队继续在新奢侈税 apron 机制和建队限制中摸索，2026年的交易季和自由球员市场将何去何从？
“我预见不到一个交易频发的截止日，”第二位东部高管说。“但这可能会为疯狂的夏天埋下伏笔。”
有理由期待烟花会在今年夏天而非下个月绽放。与密尔沃基的阿德托昆博类似，戴维斯的高额薪水（下赛季5850万美元，2027-28赛季拥有6280万美元的球员选项）可能会让达拉斯难以交易。
亚特兰大老鹰队的特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 和萨克拉门托国王队的扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 可能也是如此，这两位年薪约4000万美元的球员，在各队难以腾出薪金空间的情况下，可能不会引起太大的交易兴趣。与此同时，在去年夏天旷日持久的合同僵局之后，围绕乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 在金州勇士队未来的风波仍在继续。
“所有这些球员都将被困在原地，”第一位西部高管在谈到2月5日交易截止日前的形势时说道。
“我认为交易不会像人们想象的那么繁忙，而且市场上可供选择的球员质量也不会那么高。”
篮球商业的巨大变革
文霍斯特： 在拉斯维加斯的NBA杯期间，萧华表示关于联盟扩张的决定将在2026年做出。这引起了拉斯维加斯和西雅图两地市政官员的注意，并促使潜在的竞标者与他们的资金经理进行沟通。联盟扩张的传闻已久，联盟也曾多次暗示其计划。
“听起来2026年我们将知道新球队会落户何处，”一位西部高管说。
新球队的出现，以及随之而来的新工作岗位、干净的工资帽、可能需要的赛区重新划分、围绕扩张选秀的策略——这一切都在NBA范围内创造了一系列引人遐想的可能性。或者，并非如此。
在过去的18个月里，优先事项似乎是在欧洲建立一个新的联赛，这是一个大胆而富有挑战性的构想，已在整个欧洲大陆乃至中东地区引发了震动。哪些欧洲传统强队会跳槽？谁会通过谈判获得更好的条件留在现有的欧洲联赛体系中？新成立的球队将设在哪里？这将创造多少新的工作岗位——无论是球员、教练还是高管——又将如何影响NBA？
萧华曾多次表示，NBA扩张和欧洲扩张可以同时进行。但一直与联盟就这两个项目进行合作的利益相关者向ESPN表达了他们的怀疑。有理由相信萧华能够实现这两项事业，但常识告诉我们，必须有一个优先项。
NBA持续的青春风暴
邦坦普斯： 随着2025届选秀班底涌现出大量潜力新星，而2026届也获得了同样多的关注，这股年轻天赋的涌入将是一个值得关注的迷人看点。
本届新秀班底展现了非同寻常的即战力，无论是在个人数据累积还是在影响比赛胜负方面。
弗拉格、哈珀和费城76人队的后卫VJ·埃奇科姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 都在为处于季后赛席位、或像达拉斯那样正在为之奋斗的球队扮演着重要角色。夏洛特黄蜂队似乎在康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 身上找到了基石球员。新奥尔良鹈鹕队的杰里迈亚·菲尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears) 和德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen)，以及孟菲斯灰熊队的塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward) 都已确立了首发位置。莱恩·卡尔克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner)（夏洛特）、威尔·理查德 (Will Richard)（金州）、雨果·冈萨雷斯 (Hugo Gonzalez)（波士顿）和埃戈尔·杰明 (Egor Demin)（布鲁克林）都给人留下了深刻印象。
随着由达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)、AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 和卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 三人引发的状元之争领衔的2026届新秀将在不到六个月后进入联盟，新一代的超级巨星可能正在形成。
“这些家伙里，”第三位东部高管思索道，“谁将真正接管NBA？”
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA intel: Top 2026 storylines? We asked coaches, scouts and execs
NBA intel: Top 2026 storylines? We asked coaches, scouts and execs
During 2025, the NBA gave us the shocking Luka Doncic trade in February, the Dallas Mavericks beating 1.8% draft lottery odds in May, a historic Oklahoma City Thunder title in June and a first half of a 2025-26 season filled with the emergence of new stars and contenders on the court, and major scandals off it.
What lies ahead as the calendar flips to 2026?
How many wins will the Thunder rack up in their pursuit of back-to-back titles, and can their newest rivals from San Antonio deny a dynasty? Where are trade sagas headed for the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis, and could each spill over into the offseason?
What’s next for potential league expansion – domestic and overseas – as commissioner Adam Silver continues to make his mark on the future of the NBA? Which rule changes could be on the horizon?
Those are just some of the storylines that coaches, executives and scouts around the league will be watching closely this year. Let’s break down the 10 biggest, starting in Los Angeles, where one of the league’s most storied franchises and its all-time great player are headed for a crossroads.
MORE: Need an NBA season refresher? Here’s what you missed in 2025-26
LeBron’s next (and possibly final) decision
Brian Windhorst: At the start of the season, Los Angeles Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka tried to be as respectful as possible when dealing with the delicate matter of LeBron James’ future.
“We would love if LeBron’s story would be to retire as a Laker,” Pelinka said. “The first thing we want to do in terms of LeBron and his future is just give him absolute respect to choose his story with his family in terms of how many years he’s going to continue to play.”
It’s no one’s fault, but there is an inherent problem for the Lakers. James, who turned 41 on Tuesday, is 15 years older than Doncic. The superstars’ timelines do not match, and as this season has shown, playing together does not make the Lakers a championship contender in their current form. This was a byproduct of the Doncic trade falling into their laps last season. They had to do it, despite the inefficient immediate fit.
With James and Doncic collectively making $98 million (about 64% of the salary cap), it’s not a sustainable way forward. This is one reason the Lakers prioritized extending the contract of the 26-year-old Doncic and not James.
There are three rational paths for James after this season, league executives told ESPN.
- Stay with the Lakers at a significantly reduced salary. (This would be “the Dirk option,” as one executive said, referencing Dirk Nowitzki’s large pay cuts in his later years to stay with the Dallas Mavericks and help them help build out the roster).
- Leave for another team in free agency.
- Retire.
“LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50%. He can help a team win,” one head coach said. “You just have to find the right situation.”
But where? Would James want to uproot his life? Would his health hold up? Can the respectful end be achieved as Pelinka and the league office would much prefer? And what would the Lakers do with the financial flexibility if James’ $53 million salary fell off their books?
The path LeBron chooses will be a pivotal moment.
The Giannis saga enters the new year
Tim Bontemps: This was one of the big stories of 2025 – and 2024, 2023 and 2022 … you get the idea – but 2026 feels like the year the Giannis saga reaches its inflection point.
"The rubber is going to finally hit the road, " a Western Conference executive said, “one way or the other.”
Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks ended 2025 with a home loss to the Washington Wizards. The Bucks are 11th in the Eastern Conference, after the stunning offseason moves to waive and stretch Damian Lillard’s contract and sign free agent center Myles Turner to further appease the team’s two-time MVP.
Antetokounmpo continues to say he isn’t interested in discussing a future outside of Milwaukee at the moment. And some league insiders we spoke to agree with that prudent approach.
“If he waits until the summer [to ask out],” one Eastern Conference scout said, “he’ll have maximum leverage on what his future will be.”
Sources have reiterated that Milwaukee will spend this trade season focusing on improving the roster around Antetokounmpo before the Feb. 5 deadline. With Antetokounmpo being the consensus top player in a wide-open conference – the Bucks are just five games behind the fourth-seeded Toronto Raptors – the franchise still sees an opening for a playoff run. “They aren’t trading him in-season,” a West scout said.
But as long as Milwaukee continues to struggle, and until the trade deadline passes, all eyes around the league will be glued to the Bucks to see if that stance changes.
Potential uproar over anti-tanking and award-eligibility rules
Windhorst: “In 2026, I look forward to seeing what the league’s overreaction to its overreaction is,” a veteran East executive said.
He was poking fun but also expressing the continued annoyance at the upheaval the 2023 collective bargaining agreement has wrought on the league. Hoping to foster competitive balance, new rules aimed at restricting team building for high-spending clubs have resulted in numerous intended and unintended consequences.
As for 2026’s biggest potential change, the executive pointed to owners’ recent discussions surrounding stricter anti-tanking rules. Like with the NBA’s competitive balance, the league has achieved little regarding this challenge for years.
And it has become more than bottom-dwelling teams maneuvering for franchise-changing players at the top of the draft. In recent years, teams have been tanking to ensure they keep protected picks in the top six, eight or 10, the rights to which were often traded years before.
The deep 2026 draft class is exacerbating the situation, creating an outcry for new anti-tanking measures.
“This is only going to get louder,” another East executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”
The 65-game rule is also a topic of discussion as the league prepares for potential drama regarding end-of-season award races. James, who has been named to a league-record 21 consecutive All-NBA teams, is on the verge of being ineligible after missing the first several weeks because of a back issue.
Nikola Jokic, who has finished first or second in MVP voting each of the past five years, could be ineligible, too, depending on how long he’s sidelined because of a hyperextended left knee. Antetokounmpo is butting up against the missed-games limit, and so is Victor Wembanyama, who could miss out on a second straight Defensive Player of the Year award because of it.
If the number of superstars ineligible for awards continues to rise, expect calls for change to grow louder despite the rule delivering the league’s intended outcome.
Wembanyama and the Spurs’ rise into the league’s elite
Bontemps: In canvassing league insiders about the dominant storylines of 2026, San Antonio and its 7-foot-4 big man were near the top of their lists.
“They’re bringing the culture back that I like,” a second East executive said. “Some people might think it’s corny, but I love it when [Wembanyama] goes crazy when Chet [Holmgren] misses a free throw. They’re really going all in on rivalry and competitiveness. They will be fighting it out with Oklahoma City for the next few years.”
Beyond Wembanyama’s greatness, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle has taken a giant leap. Dylan Harper has immediately contributed as a rookie. The young duo and De’Aaron Fox are playing off each other nicely. Center Luke Kornet has been a great free agent signing. Keldon Johnson is playing the best basketball of his career as the team’s longest-tenured player and emotional leader.
No one – including the Spurs – expected this quick of an ascent. Some believed the Spurs could push for a top-six seed in the West, but they did not project San Antonio entering a new calendar year No. 2 in the West with three wins over the Thunder in 12 days.
The question now becomes whether the Spurs can rip through the playoffs without prior heartbreak, which is typically needed on the path to Finals contention, and take down the defending champs this spring.
“Have they made themselves a legitimate threat to OKC? Recent events say so,” a West scout said. “I need to see it sustained a little bit. I need more than a couple months, but it’s certainly trending in that direction.”
Flagg’s next step
Windhorst: One general manager was quick to single out his most important storyline of 2026:
“The teenager in Dallas.”
Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg, who turned 19 on Dec. 21, has lived up to the hype, showing off the skills and poise that go beyond his age and experience level. This is not to downplay the 2025 draft class, but Flagg is undoubtedly looking like a future cornerstone of the league.
The combination of Flagg’s potential and the departure of former GM Nico Harrison, who staked his tenure on the acquisition of Anthony Davis, leaves plenty of questions about what will happen with the Mavs. Building around Flagg is the only choice, but how fast that happens and the fallout for the Mavs’ veterans, namely Davis, could have wide-ranging effects.
Though the possible transactions and who might make them – the Mavs are operating with co-interim GMs Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley – could create plenty of intrigue, the real story is Flagg’s growth potential.
Even instantly impactful teenagers over the years – such as James, Doncic, Wembanyama and Kevin Durant – took time to put their stamp on the league. None, for example, led their teams to the playoffs in their first two seasons. The expectations for Flagg, especially with the Mavs potentially retrofitting their roster, will likely remain measured. But that doesn’t mean he won’t draw a ton of attention in 2026.
The Thunder’s pursuit of history
Bontemps: The NBA has been defined by dynasties. That’s why the league-record seven consecutive seasons without a back-to-back champion has been so bizarre.
Oklahoma City has a chance to change that.
The Thunder, even after their recent swoon against the Spurs, are on pace for close to 70 wins after amassing 68 in 2024-25. OKC’s plus-14.2 net rating, 1.5 points better than last season, would shatter the NBA record. The Thunder are enjoying this success despite a rotating cast surrounding MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because of injuries. All-NBA forward Jalen Williams is still rounding into form after missing the first month because of offseason wrist surgery.
“This is not a team prone to complacency,” a West scout said. “But it’s really hard to repeat, as we’ve seen.”
Several legitimate challengers loom. The Denver Nuggets pushed the Thunder to seven games in last season’s conference finals. The Houston Rockets arguably gave OKC the game of the season on opening night, and have gotten better since. Gilgeous-Alexander said the Thunder can’t say they are better than the Spurs after losing to them three times in quick succession.
That’s why, despite the gaudy résumé, the scintillating leading star and a deep, versatile roster, not everyone is convinced that the Thunder will be the first repeat champion since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors
“I don’t think they do it,” a second West executive said of the Thunder. “It’s easy to say that, but I think there’s too much scrutiny on them.”
The Clippers, and their place in the standings
Windhorst: The interest in the Clippers across the league is more off the floor than on it. The Aspiration-Kawhi Leonard investigation has been going on behind the scenes for months. The NBA is outsourcing the investigation, which is standard procedure, to New York law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, and the billable hours are mounting.
No announced timetable has been announced, but with the Clippers hosting All-Star Weekend in February, a worldwide spotlight will be on the situation if it is not resolved by then. It will be an early 2026 story, however it plays out.
Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has earned a good reputation with fellow owners, and his net worth is around $150 billion. When speaking to people in the league, these are important factors to consider.
“You have to be careful getting into a [legal] fight with someone like Ballmer. You have to have the evidence,” one rival team president said. (Ballmer and the Clippers have strongly denied salary cap circumvention allegations that came out after reporting by the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast.)
The Clippers’ disastrous season has featured an ugly divorce from franchise icon and future Hall of Famer Chris Paul and a horrible run of play on the court. Even after closing 2025 with a five-game winning streak, LA remains 10 games under .500.
And the Clippers, who were expected to contend for a top-four spot in the West, picked the wrong season for a dramatic fall in the standings. Thanks to the Paul George trade of 2019, the league-leading Thunder have the Clippers’ unprotected first-round pick in June.
How trade season could impact the free agency frenzy
Bontemps: The NBA is halfway through its current CBA, and as teams continue to navigate new luxury tax aprons and team-building restrictions, what lies ahead for the 2026 trade and free agency seasons?
“I don’t see an eventful trade deadline,” the second East executive said. “But that could set up for a crazy summer.”
There are reasons to expect the fireworks this summer, not next month. Similar to Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, Davis’ big salary ($58.5 million next season with a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28) could prove difficult for Dallas to move.
The same could be true for Trae Young with the Atlanta Hawks and Zach LaVine with the Sacramento Kings, two players making approximately $40 million, which might not garner much trade interest as teams struggle to find cap room. Meanwhile, the saga continues surrounding Jonathan Kuminga’s future with the Golden State Warriors after last summer’s protracted contract stalemate.
“All these guys are going to be stuck where they are,” the first West executive said of the lead-up to the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
“I don’t think it will be as busy as people think, and I don’t think the available players will be that good.”
Big changes in the business of basketball
Windhorst: At the NBA Cup in Las Vegas, Silver said a decision regarding expansion would come in 2026. This got the attention of city officials in Las Vegas and Seattle, and motivated prospective bidders to get on the phone with their money managers. Expansion has been in the ether for years, with the league giving various hints about its plans.
“It sounds like 2026 is when we’re going to find out where the new teams are going to be,” a West executive said.
New teams and the new jobs, clean salary caps, a possible need for conference realignment, the strategy surrounding an expansion draft – it all creates a delicious series of possibilities across the NBA. Or not.
Over the past 18 months, it has seemed like the priority was a new league in Europe, an audacious and challenging concept that has led to disruption across the continent and into the Middle East. Which legacy European teams would jump over, who would negotiate a better deal to stay in the current Euroleague system and where would newly created teams reside? How many new jobs – for players, coaches and executives – would be created and how would it affect the NBA?
Silver has repeatedly said that NBA expansion and European expansion can happen at the same time. But stakeholders who have been working with the league on both have expressed their skepticism to ESPN. There is reason to believe Silver can achieve both endeavors, but common sense says one must be prioritized.
The NBA’s ongoing youth movement
Bontemps: With the 2025 draft class providing plenty of potential stars, and with the 2026 class receiving just as much buzz, this influx of young talent will be a fascinating storyline to follow.
The current rookie class has been unusually productive, in racking up individual stats and impacting winning.
Flagg, Harper and Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe are all playing important roles for teams either in playoff position or, in Dallas’ case, fighting to get there. The Charlotte Hornets seem to have found a foundational player in Kon Knueppel. The New Orleans Pelicans’ Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen and the Memphis Grizzlies’ Cedric Coward have established themselves as starters. Ryan Kalkbrenner (Charlotte), Will Richard (Golden State), Hugo Gonzalez (Boston) and Egor Demin (Brooklyn) have impressed.
And with a 2026 class – headlined by a three-player debate for No. 1 among Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer – set to enter the league in less than six months, a new generation of superstars could be taking shape.
“Which of these guys,” a third East executive pondered, “are really going to take over the NBA?”
By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, via ESPN