[ESPN] NBA MVP模拟投票:百位联盟内部人士预测奖项归属

By Tim Bontemps | ESPN, 2025-12-19 20:00:00

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NBA新赛季已进行了近两个月,季后赛黑马球队浮出水面,令人震惊的球队风波接连上演,一批新秀也已崭露头角。

然而,2025-26赛季最有价值球员(MVP)争夺战的领跑者,看起来却相当熟悉。

在ESPN连续第六届NBA MVP模拟投票中——这是一项由100名媒体成员参与,旨在模仿联盟官方季后赛奖项投票的调查——俄克拉荷马城雷霆队后卫谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和丹佛掘金队中锋尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 再次领跑全场。

并且,吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(57张第一选票,总分865分)连续第三次以清晰但微弱的优势,领先于约基奇(42张第一选票,总分822分)以及其他13位在周一和周二的投票中至少获得一张选票的球星。

你可以点击此处查看完整投票详情。但首先,让我们来分析排名前五的球员——吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、约基奇、洛杉矶湖人队后卫卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)、底特律活塞队后卫凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 和纽约尼克斯队后卫杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)——以及每位MVP竞争者和他们的球队从现在到季后赛所面临的最大问题。

第5名:杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson),纽约尼克斯

2025-26赛季数据: 28.7分 | 6.4助攻 | 3.3篮板
投票结果: 106分 (出现在60张选票上)
第一选票: 0

尼克斯能否抓住东部格局开放的良机?

尽管一些评论员可能会低估尼克斯本周赢得的NBA杯冠军,但纽约在季中锦标赛上的一路高歌,是他们50多年来的首个冠军头衔。虽然球队老板詹姆斯·多兰 (James Dolan) 反对教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 在麦迪逊广场花园升起冠军旗帜的宣言,但尼克斯队希望他们的NBA杯经历能像去年的俄克ла荷马城雷霆队一样,为成功提供跳板——当时雷霆的亚军成绩激励他们一路高歌,最终赢得了队史首个NBA总冠军。(在NBA杯举办的三年里,还没有球队能在同一个赛季同时赢得季中锦标赛和NBA总冠军。)

“我认为我们赢得这个冠军是件好事,”布伦森在周二于拉斯维加斯战胜圣安东尼奥马刺队后说道。“我认为我们赢球的方式也很特别。”

在纽约获胜后,焦点集中在替补球员的表现上,如二年级后卫泰勒·科莱克 (Tyler Kolek)、中锋米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 和后卫乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson)——布伦森在被评为锦标赛MVP后,在赛后新闻发布会上对他们都大加赞赏。阵容深度得以彰显,反映了布朗在休赛期接替汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 后的执教愿景。

但毫无疑问:如果纽约想在六月实现其冠军雄心,布伦森将是引领他们的核心。随着他首次进入模拟投票的前五名,他的新任主教练也继续力挺布伦森加入MVP的讨论。

“当你们开始讨论MVP候选人时,我希望他的名字是你们最先说出的之一,”布朗在尼克斯夺得NBA杯冠军后说道。“因为在这个舞台上,以胜利者的姿态完成这一切,在我看来,这正是一名MVP的全部意义所在。”


第4名:凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham),底特律活塞

2025-26赛季数据: 27.2分 | 9.2助攻 | 6.2篮板
投票结果: 271分 (出现在91张选票上)
第一选票: 0

高居榜首的活塞是真材实料吗?

当底特律自2019年以来首次闯入季后赛时,坎宁安在联盟2024-25赛季的官方MVP投票中并列第七。但随着本赛季活塞队的战绩飙升至东部第一的21胜6负——全联盟仅次于雷霆——坎宁安凭借生涯最佳的个人表现带领球队前进,赢得了应有的赞誉。

坎宁安的得分仅排在联盟前十之外,但助攻数高居第二,总两双数位列第七。他做到这一切的阵容中,并没有一位板上钉钉的第二全明星——中锋杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 是最接近的人选——而像奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 和罗恩·霍兰二世 (Ron Holland II) 这样的年轻天才仍在成长之中。

对于自2008年以来从未赢过一轮季后赛的活塞队来说,从首轮出局到闯入NBA总决赛并非寻常之路。但毫无疑问,活塞队的进步已经超出了预期。自从教练J.B.·比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff) 在2024年休赛期上任以来,坎宁安看起来完全有能力带领球队在季后赛中走得更远。


第3名:卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic),洛杉矶湖人

2025-26赛季数据: 35.2分 | 9.1助攻 | 8.8篮板
投票结果: 432分 (出现在95张选票上)
第一选票: 1

湖人的防守足够出色吗?

东契奇为自己和他人创造进攻的独一无二的能力,为他所在的球队带来了巨大的成功。这包括今年的湖人队,尽管他们的防守效率仅排在联盟第20位,但球队战绩仍高居西部第三。

湖人能否在常规赛结束时保持在西部顶尖行列——目前雷霆、掘金、马刺和休斯顿火箭占据着这些位置——可能取决于东契奇和湖人能否在防守端成为一个更具凝聚力的整体。达拉斯交易东契奇的一个讽刺之处在于,独行侠曾围绕他的天赋短板打造了一套阵容:一个后场搭档(凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving));高大的3D侧翼球员(P.J.·华盛顿 (P.J. Washington)、小德里克·琼斯 (Derrick Jones Jr.) 和纳吉·马歇尔 (Naji Marshall));以及能够充分利用东契奇顶级挡拆视野的护筐且擅长顺下的内线大个子。

正如主教练J.J.·雷迪克 (J.J. Redick) 反复强调的,今年的湖人阵容失衡。侧翼球员贾里德·范德比尔特 (Jarred Vanderbilt) 可能是这支围绕东契奇、奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 和即将年满41岁的勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 这一进攻三叉戟构建的阵容中,唯一一位真正高于平均水准的防守球员。

值得称赞的是,东契奇以良好的身体状态进入了他在洛杉矶的第一个完整赛季,并且打出了精彩的表现——MVP模拟投票的投票者们已经注意到了这一点。但对于东契奇和湖人来说,要想闯入总决赛,还需要付出更多努力。


第2-名:尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic),丹佛掘金

2025-26赛季数据: 29.6分 | 12.3篮板 | 10.9助攻
投票结果: 822分 (出现在100张选票上)
第一选票: 42

约基奇的帮手们足够给力吗?

约基奇的历史级数据已成常态,他在MVP投票中稳居前列也同样如此;他已连续五个赛季排名第一或第二。本赛季,约基奇在篮板和助攻上领跑联盟,得分排名第五,投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率分别高达61.2%、42.6%和84.0%。没有任何球员的三双数(13次)或两双数(24次)比约基奇更多。

过去几年,丹佛面临的问题——甚至在球队2023年历史性夺得NBA总冠军期间——一直是掘金能否在这位全明星中锋下场时提供足够的火力。截至周四比赛前,当约基奇在场下时,丹佛每百回合净负1.2分,这与前几个赛季急剧下滑的数据相比已是巨大进步。

  • 2024-25赛季: 每百回合净负9.3分
  • 2023-24赛季: 每百回合净负8.6分
  • 2022-23赛季: 每百回合净负10.4分
  • 2021-22赛季: 每百回合净负7.9分

今年的进步部分归功于贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 生涯最佳的开局表现,这提升了这位后卫首次入选全明星的机会。向来以慢热著称的穆雷,本赛季在得分(25.2)、助攻(6.6)、投篮命中率(50.1%)和三分命中率(45.6%)上均创下生涯新高。


第1名:谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander),俄克拉荷马城雷霆

2025-26赛季数据: 32.4分 | 6.4助攻 | 4.7篮板
投票结果: 865分 (出现在100张选票上)
第一选票: 57

雷霆真能赢下74场比赛吗?

俄克拉荷马城在NBA杯的征程再次以失望告终,但联盟中没有哪支球队比他们更善于重整旗鼓。

“我认为一支平庸的球队可能会说,‘哦,这只是NBA杯,输了就输了吧,’”雷霆的全NBA阵容后卫杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 在周六半决赛输给马刺后说道。

“我们可以将此视为一个进步的机会,并认识到我们面对的是一支击败了我们的季后赛级别球队。”

当然,雷霆并非平庸之队。俄克拉荷马城仍然保持着创纪录的每百回合+16.9分的净效率值——比创造了72胜神话的1995-96赛季芝加哥公牛队所创下的13.4分标杆还要高出3分多。

俄克拉荷马城拥有过去六个赛季以来联盟最强悍的防守效率,他们遥遥领先于其他球队,以至于雷霆与第二名活塞之间的差距,和活塞与第25名布鲁克林篮网之间的差距一样大。这支卫冕冠军在杰伦·威廉姆斯因休赛期手腕手术缺席了赛季初几周,以及其他关键球员时有进出的情况下,取得了这一切成就。

吉尔杰斯-亚历山大一直是球队的定海神针,他场均仅用33.0分钟就能贡献32.4分,这为他卫冕2025年MVP以及雷霆卫冕总冠军增添了重要砝码。如果成功,俄克拉荷马城将终结联盟连续七年没有卫冕冠军的局面。

尽管雷霆从不高调宣扬,但他们并不回避与此前两支胜场超过70场的球队——95-96赛季的公牛队和2015-16赛季取得73胜9负的金州勇士队——的比较。

“如果我们能比现在更强,那一切都会水到渠成,”吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在周六NBA杯失利后说道。

“对我来说,当目标还很遥远时,刻意去追求它们是毫无意义的。”

“如果我们重复今晚这样的表现,我们连边都摸不到。所以我认为,专注于在这25场比赛的基础上变得更好,对我们会有帮助,而所有的目标之类的东西自然会实现。”

在我们对MVP竞争格局的初步观察中,吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和约基奇之间的差距再次微乎其微,雷霆冲击70胜(甚至更多)的征程可能成为决定性因素。

NBA MVP模拟投票完整结果

姓名 球队 第1选票 第2选票 第3选票 第4选票 第5选票 总得票数 总得分
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 OKC 57 41 1 1 0 100 865
尼古拉·约基奇 DEN 42 57 0 1 0 100 822
卢卡·东契奇 LAL 1 1 74 13 6 95 432
凯德·坎宁安 DET 0 1 17 53 20 91 271
杰伦·布伦森 NY 0 0 5 13 42 60 106
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 MIL 0 0 1 8 3 12 32
泰瑞斯·马克西 PHI 0 0 1 4 8 13 25
维克托·文班亚马 SA 0 0 1 3 4 8 18
杰伦·布朗 BOS 0 0 0 2 9 11 15
多诺万·米切尔 CLE 0 0 0 1 3 4 6
安东尼·爱德华兹 MIN 0 0 0 1 2 3 5
斯蒂芬·库里 GS 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
阿尔佩伦·申京 HOU 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
杰伦·约翰逊 ATL 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

五名之外…

  • 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) ,是自2017年以来唯一一位在每次模拟投票中都至少获得一票的球员,本次排名第六,这是他自2021年以来首次跌出前五。但由于阿德托昆博因小腿问题缺阵,他可能无法达到参评MVP和最佳阵容所需的65场比赛门槛。自2019年以来,阿德托昆博每年都入选最佳阵容一阵。
  • 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) ,尽管因小腿拉伤已缺席12场比赛,仍排名第八,他也面临着类似的困境。虽然圣安东尼奥闯入NBA杯决赛为他争取到了额外一场比赛,但他最多只能再缺席6场比赛,才能保持赛季末各大奖项的评选资格。
  • 泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) (13票,第七名)和 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) (1票,并列第12名)首次在模拟投票中获得选票。

由生成式人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

点击查看原文:NBA MVP straw poll: Where 100 league insiders see the race headed

NBA MVP straw poll: Where 100 league insiders see the race headed

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Nearly two months into the NBA season, surprise playoff contenders have emerged, shocking franchise drama has unfolded and a new class of rookies has already made an impact.

The top of the 2025-26 Most Valuable Player race, however, should look quite familiar.

For the sixth consecutive edition of ESPN’s NBA MVP straw poll – a poll of 100 media members that mimics the league’s postseason award balloting – voting has resulted in Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic leading the field.

And for the third straight time, Gilgeous-Alexander (57 first-place votes, 865 total points) holds a clear but narrow lead over Jokic (42 first-place votes, 822 total points) and 13 other stars who received at least one vote in the poll conducted Monday and Tuesday.

You can jump to the full voting breakdown here. But first, let’s examine the top-five selections – Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic, Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham and New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson – and the biggest questions facing each MVP contender and their teams between now and the postseason.

No. 5: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

2025-26 stats: 28.7 PTS | 6.4 AST | 3.3 REB
Results: 106 points (appeared on 60 ballots)
First-place votes: 0

Can the Knicks take advantage of the wide-open East?

While some pundits might discount the Knicks’ NBA Cup triumph this week, New York’s run through the in-season tournament was its first title in over 50 years. But while team owner James Dolan pushed back on coach Mike Brown’s proclamation to raise a banner to the rafters of Madison Square Garden, the Knicks hope their Cup experience provides a similar springboard to success that the Oklahoma City Thunder enjoyed last year, when their runner-up finish helped spark a run to the city’s first NBA championship. (Through three years of the NBA Cup, no team has won the in-season tournament and NBA title in the same season.)

“I think it’s good we won this,” Brunson said after Tuesday’s victory in Las Vegas over the San Antonio Spurs. “I think the way we won it is special, as well.”

In the aftermath of New York’s victory, focus was on the play of reserves such as second-year guard Tyler Kolek, center Mitchell Robinson and guard Jordan Clarkson – all of whom Brunson praised in his postgame news conference after being named the tournament’s MVP. Depth shining through reflects Brown’s vision after replacing Tom Thibodeau in the offseason.

But make no mistake: If New York achieves its championship aspirations in June, it will be Brunson leading them there. And as he enters the top five in straw poll voting for the first time, his first-year coach continues to push for Brunson’s inclusion in MVP conversations.

“When you guys start talking about MVP candidates, [I hope] his name is one of the first that comes out of your mouth,” Brown said after the Knicks’ Cup title win. “Because on this stage, to go get it done while winning, is what in my opinion an MVP is all about.”


No. 4: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

2025-26 stats: 27.2 PTS | 9.2 AST | 6.2 REB
Results: 271 points (appeared on 91 ballots)
First-place votes: 0

Is first-place Detroit for real?

As Detroit broke through for a playoff spot for the first time since 2019, Cunningham tied for seventh in the league’s official 2024-25 MVP voting. But as this season’s Pistons have skyrocketed to an East-leading 21-6 record – the NBA’s second best behind the Thunder – Cunningham has received deserved praise for leading the franchise behind career-best individual production.

Cunningham is just outside the league’s top 10 in scoring but is second in assists and seventh in total double-doubles, doing it all on a roster that doesn’t have a surefire bet for a second All-Star – center Jalen Duren is the leader there – with young talent such as Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland II still growing into their games.

For the Pistons franchise, which hasn’t won a playoff series since 2008 – going from a first-round exit to the NBA Finals is not a typical path. But there’s no doubt that the Pistons are ahead of schedule. And Cunningham, since coach J.B. Bickerstaff arrived on the sidelines in the 2024 offseason, looks every bit the player who can lead his team to a deep playoff run.


No. 3: Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers

2025-26 stats: 35.2 PTS | 9.1 AST | 8.8 REB
Results: 432 points (appeared on 95 ballots)
First-place votes: 1

Can the Lakers be good enough defensively?

Doncic’s singular ability to generate offense for himself and others has driven massive successes for his teams. That includes this year’s Lakers squad, which sits third in the Western Conference despite having the league’s 20th-ranked defense.

Whether the Lakers end the regular season in that upper tier – where the Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Houston Rockets currently reside – could depend on Doncic and the Lakers becoming a more cohesive unit on defense. One irony of Dallas trading Doncic was that the Mavericks had assembled a roster that fit his talents and his shortcomings: a backcourt co-star (Kyrie Irving); rangy 3-and-D wings (P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr. and Naji Marshall) and rim-protecting, rim-running bigs who capitalize on Doncic’s elite pick-and-roll vision.

This year’s Lakers, as coach J.J. Redick has repeatedly said, are imbalanced. Wing Jarred Vanderbilt is perhaps the one truly above-average defensive player on a roster built around the offensive-minded trio of Doncic, Austin Reaves and a soon-to-be-41-year-old LeBron James.

To his credit, Doncic entered his first full season in L.A. in shape and has played brilliantly – MVP straw poll voters have taken notice. But it’ll take more than that for Doncic and the Lakers to make a Finals run.


No. 2: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

2025-26 stats: 29.6 PTS | 12.3 REB | 10.9 AST
Results: 822 points (appeared on 100 ballots)
First-place votes: 42

Will Jokic’s supporting cast be good enough?

Jokic’s historic numbers have become a constant and so has his place in the top tier of MVP voting; he has finished first or second in five consecutive seasons. This season, Jokic leads the league in rebounds and assists while ranking fifth in points, which he’s getting by shooting 61.2% overall, 42.6% from 3-point range and 84.0% from the free throw line. No player has more triple-doubles (13) or double-doubles (24) than Jokic does.

The question in Denver the past several years – and even during the franchise’s breakthrough run to the 2023 NBA title – has been whether the Nuggets could generate enough production when their All-Star center is off the court. Heading into Thursday’s games, Denver was minus-1.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench, a massive improvement from the plummeting numbers of previous seasons.

  • 2024-25: minus-9.3 points per 100 possessions
  • 2023-24: minus-8.6 points per 100 possessions
  • 2022-23: minus-10.4 points per 100 possessions
  • 2021-22: minus-7.9 points per 100 possessions

This year’s improvement can be attributed, in part, to Jamal Murray’s career-best opening stretch that has buoyed the guard’s chances of his first All-Star selection. A notoriously slow starter, Murray is posting career highs in points (25.2), assists (6.6), field goal percentage (50.1) and 3-point percentage (45.6).


No. 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

2025-26 stats: 32.4 PTS | 6.4 AST | 4.7 REB
Results: 865 points (appeared on 100 ballots)
First-place votes: 57

Can the Thunder really win 74 games?

Oklahoma City suffered another disappointing end to its NBA Cup run, but there is no team in the league better equipped to bounce back.

“I think an average team would probably be like, ‘Oh, it’s the Cup, whatever, we lost one,’” Thunder All-NBA guard Jalen Williams said after Saturday’s semifinal loss to the Spurs.

“We can look at it as a way to get better and understand that we played against a playoff team that beat us.”

The Thunder, of course, are no average team. OKC still has a record-setting net rating of plus-16.9 points per 100 possessions – more than three points better than the 13.4 rating the 72-win 1995-96 Chicago Bulls set as the standard.

Oklahoma City, which owns the NBA’s stingiest defensive rating of the past six seasons, is lapping most of the field, so much so that the distance between the Thunder and second-place Pistons is as big as the gap from Detroit to the Brooklyn Nets in 25th. The defending champs have done all this with Jalen Williams missing the first several weeks of the season because of offseason wrist surgery, and with other key players shuffling in and out of the lineup.

The steadying force has been Gilgeous-Alexander, with his 32.4 points in just 33.0 minutes per game, helping to bolster his defense of the 2025 MVP and the Thunder’s title. If successful, OKC would snap a seven-year run without a repeat champ.

But while the Thunder never say things too loudly, they’re not running away from comparisons to the prior two teams to eclipse 70 wins – those 1995-96 Bulls and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors, who went 73-9.

“If we get better than what we are now, that should take care of itself,” Gilgeous-Alexander said after Saturday’s Cup defeat.

"Goals, to me, are pointless [when you’re] trying to reach them when they are so far away.

“If we stack nights like we did tonight, we won’t even come close to it. So I think trying to focus on getting better than we just got in this 25-game stretch will help us, and all the goals and stuff will take care of itself.”

With our early snapshot of the MVP race predicting another razor thin margin between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, the Thunder’s chase for 70 wins (and beyond) could be the determining factor.

Full NBA MVP straw poll results

Name TEAM 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total votes Total points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 57 41 1 1 0 100 865
Nikola Jokic DEN 42 57 0 1 0 100 822
Luka Doncic LAL 1 1 74 13 6 95 432
Cade Cunningham DET 0 1 17 53 20 91 271
Jalen Brunson NY 0 0 5 13 42 60 106
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 0 0 1 8 3 12 32
Tyrese Maxey PHI 0 0 1 4 8 13 25
Victor Wembanyama SA 0 0 1 3 4 8 18
Jaylen Brown BOS 0 0 0 2 9 11 15
Donovan Mitchell CLE 0 0 0 1 3 4 6
Anthony Edwards MIN 0 0 0 1 2 3 5
Stephen Curry GS 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Alperen Sengun HOU 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Jalen Johnson ATL 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

Outside the top five…

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, the only player who has received at least one vote in every straw poll dating to 2017, finished sixth, the first time he has been outside the top five since 2021. But with Antetokounmpo on the sidelines with a calf issue, he could fall short of the 65-game threshold for MVP and All-NBA. Antetokounmpo has made the first team every year since 2019.
  • Victor Wembanyama, who finished eighth despite already missing 12 games with a calf strain, faces a similar dilemma. While he gained an extra game in the race for 65 by San Antonio reaching the NBA Cup title game, he can miss just six more games to remain eligible for end-of-season awards.
  • Tyrese Maxey (13 votes, seventh place) and Jalen Johnson (one vote, tied for 12th place) received their first straw poll votes.

By Tim Bontemps | ESPN, via ESPN