By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-01-27 22:11:37
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
是时候分析一下本赛季三支令人欣喜的球队了。
本赛季，许多年轻的球队都崭露头角。
火箭队持续加速前进，灰熊队再次成为捕食者，而活塞队的故障也得到了修复。他们都以不同的方式取得了成功，但不可否认的是，他们都有着光明的未来。
因此，是时候分析一下每支球队是如何找到成功之路的，就从休斯顿开始吧。
休斯顿，我们起飞了
即使是最乐观的火箭球迷也没想到球队能这么快就变得这么好。
目前位居西部第二，休斯顿有望取得超过50场的胜利，并且很有可能打进季后赛第二轮。他们+6.9的净效率值在联盟排名第六，火箭队是仅有的六支进攻（115.7，第十）和防守（108.8，第三）都排名前十的球队之一。
他们成功背后的最大推动力之一是阿门·汤普森(Amen Thompson)的表现。在防守端，他就像独角兽一般，速度和敏捷性足以封锁后卫，同时他的臂展和弹跳力也让大个子球员的日子不好过。想想看：阿门的盖帽率为1.7%（第98百分位），并且抢断率为1.9%（第84百分位），这使他成为在这两个领域都非常出色的独角兽。
看看比赛录像，很容易理解为什么。被誉为一代奇才的他，已经实现了人们的期望，甚至超越了期望。在下面的第一个回合中，阿门用他的横向移动能力挡在了尼凯尔·亚历山大-沃克(Nickeil Alexander-Walker)面前。他的平衡性和力量让他能够抢断成功，而当汤普森兄弟在空旷的球场上奔跑时，没有人能追上他们。然后，第二个回合展示了他惊人的恢复速度，不仅干扰了爱德华兹(Ant)的投篮，而且还盖掉了。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
说阿门是目前NBA最好的运动员并不夸张。虽然像锡安和莫兰特这样的球员可能会有更精彩的扣篮，但阿门的功能性运动能力是我以前从未见过的。他的移动就像动画电影中的CGI角色，在空中滑翔。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
在进攻端，我非常怀疑阿门是否能开发出可靠的外线投篮。即便如此，他仍然可以在高水平上完成其他所有事情，并通过控球或不断空切创造空间来迫使防守球员防守他。他也知道自己的优势和劣势，并坚持自己擅长的东西。例如，与其在勒布朗（和协防位置的浓眉）面前选择不明智的长两分或突破上篮，阿门选择快速挡拆来暂时迷惑防守并打开一条通道。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
阿门的自我认知在他的投篮选择中很明显：本赛季，他只有13%的投篮来自三分线外（第0百分位），而惊人的56%的投篮是在篮下四英尺内完成的（第98百分位）。他的篮下命中率也高达73%（第86百分位），因为他利用他的运动能力和柔和的手感来完成上篮。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
我认为由于他糟糕的跳投，阿门永远不会成为一支冠军球队的头号球星，但他可以成为一个现实版的本·西蒙斯——一个即使没有可靠的投篮也足以成为全明星的球员。再加上阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Sengün)这位已经达到全明星水准的球员，火箭队拥有一个强大的核心阵容，而且只会越来越好。
休斯顿仍然需要找到那个男人才能成为顶级竞争者，但鉴于他们拥有大量的选秀权和年轻球员，他们完全有能力完成一笔重磅交易。因此，即使火箭队今年在季后赛早早出局，他们的未来仍然一片光明。
西南赛区在未来几年将是一场血战。
灰熊正在反咬一口
另一支令人欣喜的西部球队是孟菲斯，他们在去年被Instagram直播伤病摧毁后，已经很好地反弹了回来。不出所料，他们的防守再次成为精英级别（110.5，第五），但灰熊队不知何故也发展成了联盟前五的进攻球队（119.2）。
从表面上看，变化不大。孟菲斯抢进攻篮板（32.6%的进攻篮板率，第二）和优先转换进攻（17.9%的频率，第一）的原则保持不变。然而，他们目前的半场进攻效率排名第13位（98.3），这是灰熊十年来第一次跻身前20名。
孟菲斯的突破是双重的。首先，他们更多地转移球：灰熊队平均每场比赛传球291.5次（第十），这比两年前他们最后一次保持健康时的273.5次（第21）有了很大的提高。结果，孟菲斯每场比赛投出近23个空位三分球（第三）——比2022-23赛季创造的18个有了大幅提升。自然，这使得球队的效率更高，因为他们的三分球命中率从35.7%（2022-23赛季第22位）提高到37.8%（本赛季第8位）。
更重要的是，小贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)在进攻端取得了飞跃。去年，在人员短缺的球队中，JJJ被迫自己创造投篮机会，他的组织/得分能力得到了极大的提高，并延续到了本赛季。以前，JJJ的弱点之一是缺乏传球能力，但去年他的助攻率达到了职业生涯最高的13.3%（第73百分位），而他之前的最高纪录只有区区7.4%。他目前的助攻率为11.1%（第51百分位），但这只是因为孟菲斯拥有更健康的球队，而不是JJJ的组织能力下降。
相反，他更专注于创造自己的投篮机会，这通常以突破的形式出现。JJJ现在足够强壮，可以随意进入内线，把对方的大个子推回去，为自己最喜欢的投篮创造空间：罚球线下方一点的抛投。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
如果他无法战胜防守者，JJJ也足够灵活，可以用任何一只手转身抛投。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
JJJ本赛季仅靠突破就场均得到9.8分——联盟第九高。令人印象深刻的是，这些得分仅仅来自7.5次投篮出手（每次出手得到1.3分），这使得他的突破成为篮球比赛中最有效的进攻方式之一。JJJ的真实投篮命中率为59.1%，也高于联盟平均水平，并且比他去年的55.2%有了巨大的提高，这证明他现在是一个高产量并且高效率的进攻球员。
令人印象深刻的是，即使得分负担更重，他的防守也没有退步，仍然是篮球比赛中最全能的防守者之一。事实上，JJJ的护框能力不知何故得到了提高：当JJJ是主要防守者时，对手在篮下六英尺内的投篮命中率下降了14.7%（预期63.2%，实际48.5%），这是整个联盟中最大的差异，包括文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)。当对手在篮筐附近挑战他时，他总是让对手看起来很愚蠢。难道球员们忘记了他在训练中每天都习惯于和莫兰特对抗吗？
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月25日
简而言之，JJJ已经发展成为联盟中最具统治力的攻防兼备的力量之一，无疑是灰熊队今年的最佳球员。孟菲斯现在拥有他和莫兰特两个真正的进攻支点，这使他们成为季后赛深度冲刺的真正威胁。
等等，活塞队又行了？
恕我直言，孟菲斯和休斯顿，本赛季联盟最好的故事是活塞队。在经历了一个只赢了14场比赛的历史性糟糕赛季后，底特律目前的胜率超过了50%，并占据了东部第六的位置。
最大的区别是，嗯，他们的最佳球员实际上正在上场打球。我不知道布鲁克林篮网传奇基利安·海斯(Killian Hayes)对蒙蒂·威廉姆斯(Monty Williams)有什么把柄，但让他在去年取代杰登·艾维(Jaden Ivey)首发是近年来最令人费解的教练决定之一。底特律只需进行正常的轮换就可以在本赛季将他们的胜场数翻一番，但休赛期的引援和内部的成长也促成了他们的爆发。
可以说是去年联盟中投篮最差的球队，活塞队通过引进托拜厄斯·哈里斯(Tobias Harris)、小蒂姆·哈达威(Tim Hardaway Jr.)和马利克·比斯利(Malik Beasley)来改善他们的空间。现在，活塞队有37.9%的投篮来自三分线外（第17位），而上赛季这一数字仅为32.7%（第29位）。通过让哈里斯、哈达威和比斯利中至少有两人在场上，活塞队的三分球命中率也从35.6%（第24位）提高到37.2%（第13位）。投篮的改善帮助底特律的进攻效率从第28位（109.2）提高到第18位（112.5），而这仅仅是在球场的一端。
在防守端，他们现在的排名是第13位（113.8），而去年是第25位（119.4）。同样，投篮选择是关键：底特律只允许对手28.4%的投篮来自篮下四英尺内，这比他们一年前的33.9%（第19位）有了很大的提高。简单地说，活塞队不允许对手从球场上效率最高的区域投篮，因为他们在对手三分球出手比例最低的球队中也排名前十。
综上所述，凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham)是底特律成功的最大因素。这位状元秀不仅应该锁定全明星席位，还应该参与最佳阵容的讨论。
本赛季，凯德场均得到24.9分、6.5个篮板和9.4次助攻——均为职业生涯新高。即使没有爆发力的第一步，他也已经成为一名中距离大师，因为他经常在瞬间减速来创造投篮空间。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月26日
凯德现在中距离命中率高达47%，排名第72百分位。有趣的是，他还拥有复古的背身单打技术，因为他经常喜欢背打比他矮小的后卫，然后用柔和的勾手完成进攻。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月26日
此外，凯德的组织能力也取得了飞跃。在挡拆中，他会向内线球员送出漂亮的低手传球，并完美地把握时机，让他的目标球员轻松扣篮。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月26日
然而，最令人印象深刻的部分是他的预判能力。凯德的许多传球并不困难，但这仅仅是因为他很有耐心，不强求。在下面的片段中，他看到以赛亚·斯图尔特(Isaiah Stewart)在低位错位，但他并没有提前强行把球传给他，而是多运了一步球，打开了一条更好的传球路线。在传球之前，凯德还用他的眼睛操控防守，短暂地看了一眼弱侧的射手，这样多伦多的协防球员就完全离开了画面。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月26日
凯德下一步的进化方向是成为一个更好的终结者。目前他在篮下四英尺内的命中率只有55%（第15百分位），这导致他的真实投篮命中率（55.1%）略低于联盟平均水平。不过，这是一项可以提高的技能，而且凯德拥有无法被传授的无形资产和篮球智商。
随着艾维和奥萨尔·汤普森(Ausar Thompson)等其他年轻球员的不断发展，底特律的未来一片光明。即使他们离成为竞争者还很远，但考虑到他们最近几个赛季的糟糕表现，拥有一名基石球员和一支有竞争力的球队并不是什么值得嘲笑的事情。
本周，请查看Pedro关于为什么文班拥有成为球队基石球员所需的一切无形资产的文章！他出色地探究了文班的心理，并将其与马刺队的DNA联系起来。
感谢阅读!
所有统计数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: Houston’s liftoff, Memphis’ bounce back, and Detroit’s rising star
Around the NBA: Houston’s liftoff, Memphis’ bounce back, and Detroit’s rising star
It’s time to analyze three feel good teams of the season.
Many young teams have risen to prominence this season.
The Rockets continue to accelerate, the Grizzlies are predators again, and the Pistons’ malfunctions have been fixed. They’ve all done it in different ways, but there’s no denying that they all share a bright future.
So, it’s time to analyze how each team has found success, beginning in H-Town.
Houston, we have liftoff
Even the most optimistic Rockets fans didn’t expect the team to be this good, this soon.
Currently the second seed in the West, Houston is on pace to win over 50 games and could legitimately make it to the second round of the playoffs. Their +6.9 net rating is 6th league-wide, and the Rockets are one of just six teams with both a top-10 offense (115.7, 10th) and defense (108.8, 3rd).
One of the biggest drivers behind their success has been the play of Amen Thompson. Defensively, he’s a unicorn who’s fast and agile enough to shut down guards while also having the length and vertical pop to make life difficult for bigs. Consider this: Amen has a 1.7% block rate (98th percentile) and 1.9% steals rate (84th percentile), making him a unicorn that’s elite in both areas.
Looking at the tape, it’s easy to see why. Billed as a generational athlete, he’s lived up to the hype and then some. In the first play below, Amen stays in front of Nickeil Alexander-Walker using his lateral agility. His balance and strength allow him to be in position to poke the ball away, and no one’s catching up to any Thompson when they’ve got a free runway. Then, the second play shows just how freakishly fast he can recover, somehow not only contesting Ant’s shot, but blocking it too.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
It’s not hyperbole to say that Amen is the best athlete currently in the NBA. While players like Zion and Ja might have flashier dunks, Amen’s functional athleticism is something that I’ve never seen before. He moves like a CGI character in an animated film and seems to glide whenever he’s airborne.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
Offensively, I’m very skeptical that Amen will ever develop a reliable outside shot. Even so, he can do everything else at a high level and forces the defense to guard him by either handling the ball or constantly cutting to create space. He also knows his strengths and weaknesses and sticks to what he’s good at. For example, rather than take an ill-advised long two or drive to the basket against LeBron (and AD in help position), Amen instead chose to run a quick pick and roll to momentarily confuse the defense and open up a lane.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
Amen’s self-awareness is evident in his shot selection: this season, only 13% of his shots have come from three (0 percentile) while an astonishing 56% of them have been taken within four feet of the basket (98th percentile). He’s also making an impressive 73% of those rim attempts (86th percentile), as he utilizes his athleticism and soft touch to finish layups.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
I don’t think Amen will ever be the top player on a championship team due to his broken jumper, but he could become an actualized version of Ben Simmons — a player who’s good enough to be an All-Star even without a reliable shot. Pair that with someone who’s already All-Star caliber in Alperen Sengun and the Rockets have a strong core that should only get better.
Houston still needs to find The Man to become a top-tier contender, but they’re well positioned to execute a blockbuster deal given their plethora of draft picks and young talent. So even if the Rockets exit early in the playoffs this year, they’re still set for the future.
The Southwest division will be a bloodbath for years to come.
The Grizzlies are biting back
Another feel-good West team is Memphis, who’ve bounced back nicely after being decimated by Instagram live injuries last year. Unsurprisingly, their defense is once again elite (110.5, 5th), but the Grizzlies have somehow developed into a top-5 offense (119.2), too.
On the surface, not much has changed. Memphis’ tenets of grabbing offensive rebounds (32.6% OReb rate, 2nd) and prioritizing running in transition (17.9% frequency, 1st) remain the same. However, they’re currently 13th in half-court offense (98.3), which is the first time the Grizzlies have cracked the top 20 in a decade.
Memphis’ break-through is twofold. First, they’re moving the ball more: the Grizzlies are averaging 291.5 passes made per game (10th), a big jump from the 273.5 (21st) they averaged two years ago when they were last healthy. As a result, Memphis is shooting just under 23 open threes per game (3rd) — a large jump from the 18 they created in the 2022-23 campaign. Naturally, this has made the team more efficient, as they’ve increased their three-point accuracy from 35.7% (22nd in 2022-23) to 37.8% (8th this season).
More importantly, Jaren Jackson Jr. has made an offensive leap. Forced to create his own shot on a depleted team last year, JJJ drastically improved as a playmaking/scoring hub, and that’s carried into this season. Previously, one of JJJ’s weaknesses was his lack of passing ability, but he set a career-high assist percentage of 13.3% last year (73rd percentile) when his previous high was a meager 7.4%. He’s currently at 11.1% (51st percentile), but that’s a result of Memphis having a healthier team rather than a playmaking drop-off from JJJ.
Rather, he’s focusing more on creating his own shots, which usually come in the form of drives. JJJ’s now strong enough to get to the paint at will, pushing opposing bigs back to create space to get off his favorite shot: a little floater from just below the foul line.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
If he’s unable to overpower his defender, JJJ is also agile enough to spin and hit the floater with either hand.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
JJJ is averaging 9.8 points this season off of drives alone — the 9th highest mark league-wide. Impressively, those points are coming from just 7.5 field goal attempts (1.3 points per attempt), making his drives one of the most efficient plays in all of basketball. JJJ’s true shooting percentage of 59.1% is also above league-average and a vast improvement on the 55.2% he mustered last year, proving that he’s now a high-volume and high-efficiency offensive player.
Impressively, he hasn’t taken a step back defensively even with the larger scoring burden, remaining one of the most versatile defenders in all of basketball. In fact, JJJ’s rim protection has somehow improved: opposing players are shooting -14.7% worse within six feet of the basket when JJJ’s the primary defender (63.2% expected, 48.5% actual), which is the largest discrepancy in the entire league, Wemby included. He consistently makes the opposition look foolish when they challenge him at the rim. Do players forget that he’s used to contesting Ja freaking Morant in practice every day?
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 25, 2025
Simply put, JJJ has developed into one of the most dominant two-way forces in the league and has undoubtedly been the Grizzlies’ best player this year. Memphis now has two legitimate offensive fulcrums in him and Ja, making them a legitimate threat to go on a deep playoff run.
Wait, the Pistons are competent again?
With all due respect to Memphis and Houston, the league’s best story this year has been the Pistons. Following a historically bad season when they only won 14 games, Detroit is currently over .500 and occupies the sixth seed in the East.
The biggest difference is that, well, their best players are actually playing. I’m not sure what blackmail Brooklyn Nets legend Killian Hayes had on Monty Williams, but having him start over Jaden Ivey last year was one of the most baffling coaching decisions in recent memory. Detroit could’ve doubled their wins this year by simply playing a normal rotation, but off-season additions and internal growth have contributed to their breakout, too.
Arguably the worst shooting team in the league last year, the Pistons improved their spacing through the additions of Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Malik Beasley. 37.9% of Detroit’s shots now come from three (17th) when that number was just 32.7% last season (29th). By having at least two of Harris, THJ, and Beasley on the court, the Pistons have also increased their three-point percentage from 35.6% (24th) to 37.2% (13th). The improved shooting has helped Detroit increase their offensive efficiency from 28th (109.2) to 18th (112.5), and that’s only on one side of the ball.
Defensively, they are now ranked 13th (113.8) when they were 25th last year (119.4). Again, shot selection is key: Detroit is only letting 28.4% of opposing shots come within four feet of the basket, which is a vast improvement on the 33.9% (19th) they conceded a year ago. Simply put, the Pistons aren’t letting the opposition shoot from the most efficient areas on the court, as they’re also top ten in the lowest percentage of opposing shots that come from three.
With all that said, Cade Cunningham is the biggest factor behind Detroit’s success. The former #1 pick shouldn’t just be a lock to make the All-Star game, but he should be in All-NBA discussions too.
This season, Cade’s averaging 24.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 9.4 assists — all career highs. He’s turned into a mid-range maestro even without an explosive first step by often decelerating on a dime to create separation.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 26, 2025
Cade’s now shooting a robust 47% from mid-range, ranking in the 72nd percentile. Interestingly, he also has a throwback post-game, as he often likes to back down smaller guards before finishing with a soft hook.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 26, 2025
Moreover, Cade’s playmaking has taken a leap. He throws beautiful underhand lobs to bigs in the pick-and-roll while timing it perfectly so that his target has an open dunk.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 26, 2025
The most impressive part, though, is his anticipation. Many of Cade’s passes aren’t difficult, but that’s strictly because he’s patient and doesn’t force things. In the clip below, he sees that Isaiah Stewart has a mismatch down low, but instead of forcing the ball to him early, he takes an extra dribble to open up a better passing lane. Before throwing the pass, Cade also manipulates the defense using his eyes by briefly glancing towards the shooter on the weak side so that Toronto’s help man is completely out of the picture.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 26, 2025
The next step in Cade’s evolution would be to become a better finisher. Currently shooting just 55% (15th percentile) within four feet of the basket, it has resulted in his true shooting percentage (55.1%) being slightly below league average. Still, it’s a skill that can be improved, and Cade has the intangibles and basketball IQ that can’t be taught.
With other young talent like Ivey and Ausar Thompson still developing, Detroit’s future is bright. Even if they’re still far from being contenders, having a cornerstone player and a competent team is nothing to scoff at given their recent seasons from hell.
This week, please check out Pedro’s article on why Wemby has all the intangibles needed for in a franchise player! He does a great job of exploring Wemby’s psyche and connecting it to the Spurs’ DNA.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock