By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-01-13 22:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
是时候分析联盟中三支最佳球队了。
周三晚上骑士与雷霆的巅峰对决是过去十年最佳常规赛之一。这是NBA历史上第一次有两支胜率超过70%的球队在赛季如此后期交手，而且鉴于双方都有两天的休息时间来备战，这场比赛感觉就像一场季后赛。更重要的是，这场比赛展现了联盟中最好的进攻（克利夫兰，进攻效率123.5）和防守（俄克拉荷马城，防守效率104.4），双方都在各自的攻防两端打出了历史级别的出色表现。
除了波士顿，克利夫兰和俄克拉荷马城无疑是季后赛的热门球队，因此，有必要分析这场比赛，以便在潜在的总决赛对决中找到一些启示。让我们从骑士队开始。
2024 2025赛季，骑士队正凭借双塔阵容占据统治地位！
这支克利夫兰队与去年最大的不同之一是，埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)和贾勒特·艾伦(Jarrett Allen)的双塔组合现在在进攻端成为了一种优势。本赛季当两人同时在场时，克利夫兰的进攻效率高达124.1（第96百分位）——相较于去年惨淡的112.8（第36百分位），这是一个巨大的进步。
那么，发生了什么变化？首先，肯尼·阿特金森赋予了双塔在他们之间进行二人配合的权力。当他们同时在场时，骑士队总是用三名射手拉开空间，一个简单的挡拆就能创造轻松得分的机会，因为对方球队不愿从外线协防。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月11日
莫布里增加的力量和侵略性也让克利夫兰的教练组更容易为他设计更多持球进攻的战术。通过让莫布里在弧顶持球，由于艾伦是油漆区内唯一的人，所以内线就不会那么拥挤。如果防守艾伦的球员继续跟着他，莫布里就可以利用错位优势惩罚体型较小的防守球员；如果他被包夹，他就可以把球传给空位的艾伦。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月11日
如果两个大个子都没有参与进攻，骑士队也会让莫布里拉开到外线，这样艾伦就是篮下唯一的球员——这个策略现在很有效，因为莫布里场均出手2.8次三分，命中率高达41.4%。简而言之，克利夫兰通过一些创新的战术设计和莫布里的自然成长，将他们的双塔问题转化为了优势。再加上达柳斯·加兰(Darius Garland)的赛季反弹，你就拥有了一支历史级别的进攻球队，而这在不久前的上个赛季还是骑士队最大的弱点。
更重要的是，克利夫兰向所有人展示了如何突破看似坚不可摧的俄克拉荷马城防守的蓝图。雷霆队的每个轮换球员都是平均水平以上甚至精英级别的单兵防守者，所以骑士队通过球的转移而不是依靠单打来创造好的投篮机会。克利夫兰只相信加兰、多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)和泰·杰罗姆(Ty Jerome)长时间持球，以限制俄克拉荷马城制造失误的机会，而且每个人都清楚自己的角色。除了后卫和大个子，其他人在进攻端的工作就是投篮，他们会跑很多战术来创造好的投篮机会。
例如，比赛的第一回合就包括两次高位挡拆，这导致迪恩·韦德(Dean Wade)得到了一个空位三分的机会。克利夫兰知道雷霆队喜欢换防外线球员，但不换防大个子，所以当亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)绕过艾伦的掩护时，以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)不得不暂时向加兰移动来阻止他的突破。这让他在防守中慢了一步，迫使凯森·华莱士(Cason Wallace)协防篮下，从而让韦德在底角空位。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月11日
每当骑士队突破到内线时，他们也会在篮下出手前将哈尔滕施泰因拉出防守位置（就像上面第一个片段所示），因为他是一名精英级别的护框者。结果，骑士队在篮下四英尺内33投23中，令人印象深刻的69.7%的命中率比俄克拉荷马城通常在该区域的失分率高出8%以上。克利夫兰在没有超常的三分表现（他们36投15中，仍然是41.7%的命中率，但比他们的赛季平均值少了四次出手）和米切尔状态不佳（16投3中，得到11分）的情况下，在联盟最好的防守面前砍下129分，证明了这支骑士队的进攻是名副其实的。
俄克拉荷马城是否已经解决了他们的进攻“问题”？
另一方面，俄克拉荷马城得到122分或许更令人印象深刻。在赛季初进攻缓慢之后，雷霆队的进攻效率现在已经攀升到联盟第七（116.7）。即便如此，围绕这支俄克拉荷马城球队的最大疑问无疑是他们能否创造足够的得分来赢得四轮季后赛。
亚历山大是球队的核心。当“气质先生”在场时，雷霆队倾向于让他掌控一切，尤其是在对方球队轻易换防时。克利夫兰在周三晚上正是这样做的，亚历山大凭借他历史级别的单打能力，轻松地击败了他的所有防守者。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月12日
到目前为止，本赛季亚历山大场均单打次数排名联盟第二（仅次于詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden)），并且每次单打平均得分1.05分，在所有球员中排名第84.7百分位。当他上场时，由于他大量的单打风格，雷霆队的进攻看起来相当停滞，但鉴于雷霆队在他上场时的进攻效率飙升至120.2，所以没有理由改变。
不幸的是，当他下场时，这个数字一路暴跌至106.1——这仅仅比排名垫底的奇才队105.8略好一点。几乎所有没有亚历山大的雷霆阵容也都包括他们的二号选择杰伦·威廉姆斯(Jalen Williams)，所以错开他们的球星上场时间也行不通。
然而，对阵克利夫兰的情况并非如此。当亚历山大由于犯规麻烦在第三节大部分时间都坐在替补席上时，雷霆队实际上得到了43分，这主要得益于杰伦·威廉姆斯和哈尔滕施泰因的组合。特别是后者，通过他的传球和篮下的柔和手感，在保持球队的进攻火力方面发挥了巨大的作用。
在连续的两个回合中，哈尔滕施泰因先是完成了一记漂亮的抛投，然后又与以赛亚·乔(Isaiah Joe)进行了一次手递手配合，后者命中了一记空位三分。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月12日
这名大个子甚至在亚历山大离场之前就展现了他的存在感，他完成了一次漂亮的突破，并将球传给了篮下的华莱士。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月12日
本赛季，哈尔滕施泰因的中距离投篮命中率为53%（第91百分位），他尤其喜欢前面片段中展示的小抛投。他也是一名非常优秀的传球手，助攻率为19.1%，排名第89百分位，而当亚历山大不在场时，雷霆队有意识地选择执行更多让他参与的战术。考虑到哈尔滕施泰因的平均使用率只有17.6%，他在对阵骑士的比赛中23.6%的使用率带来了雷霆队本赛季最好的进攻表现之一，这并非巧合。
换句话说，雷霆队需要让哈尔滕施泰因更多地参与进来，尤其是在亚历山大不在场的时候。当他们的超级球星不在场时，雷霆队的进攻融入了更多的转移球，而考虑到哈尔滕施泰因作为一名大个子所拥有的独特组织能力，他需要成为进攻的核心。当切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)回归时，雷霆队将拥有另一位同样可以拉开空间的多功能大个子，他的回归可以让没有亚历山大的进攻提升到及格水平，而不是完全糟糕。
令人印象深刻的是，雷霆队仍然赢得了没有亚历山大的比赛时间，因为他们在没有超级球星的情况下拥有惊人的104.8的防守效率。切特只会增强这一点，所以无论他们的进攻多么挣扎，雷霆队都会在得分上超过对手。在潜在的总决赛对决中，让另一名大个子回归也将有助于他们对阵克利夫兰，因为当俄克拉荷马城可以用他们自己的双塔组合来应对时，骑士队就不能在他们的双塔之间玩传球游戏了。例如，可怜的哈尔滕施泰因就不会像下面的片段中那样被夹在莫布里和艾伦之间。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月12日
无论切特的健康状况如何，这支雷霆队都将是冠军争夺者。在没有他们最有影响力的防守球员的情况下，还能拥有历史级别的104.3的防守效率，这太荒谬了，而且由于他们坚实的防守基础，单凭亚历山大的得分就足以让他们击败任何对手。
强大的凯尔特人队呢？
波士顿在过去的12场比赛中只取得了6胜6负的战绩，其中最引人注目的一场失利是对阵俄克拉荷马城，他们在整个下半场只得到了27分。
然而，考虑到他们的历史和天赋，我仍然相信凯尔特人队是需要被击败的球队。他们目前最大的两个问题是克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯(Kristaps Porzingis)的表现和低于平均水平的三分球命中率，我预计这两方面都会出现积极的反弹。
波尔津吉斯看起来 פשוט לא בתמונה，波士顿一直难以让他重新融入球队的阵容。本赛季当他上场时，凯尔特人队的净效率只有+2.4（进攻效率114.3，防守效率111.9），而当他下场时，他们的净效率高达+12.8（进攻效率123.2，防守效率110.4）。然而，重要的是，“大丁吉斯”仍然能够找到他的得分位置，最主要的是低位。
波士顿以他们的三分球而闻名，但他们精英级别进攻中一个被低估的部分是，如果他们的投篮不中，他们还可以轻松地获得其他得分机会。在过去的几个赛季里，波尔津吉斯一直是联盟中最好的低位球员之一，今年也没有改变：他目前的每次低位单打得分高达1.17分（第84百分位），同时场均低位单打次数排名联盟第七。由于波士顿的多功能性，他们很容易为波尔津吉斯在低位创造错位机会，然后一切就变得轻而易举了。
波尔津吉斯在低位仍然具有杀伤力，这意味着波士顿仍然拥有一张进攻端的王牌，他们目前的问题仅仅是“独角兽”似乎与他们的战术体系不同步。然而，考虑到他在11月复出之前几乎缺席了整整一年的比赛，波尔津吉斯重新找到舒适感应该只是时间问题。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年1月13日
困扰波士顿的另一个问题是，他们的三分球命中率“只有”37%，而去年他们的三分球命中率为39.3%。有趣的是，凯尔特人队创造的空位三分机会甚至比上个赛季还要好：在2023-24赛季，波士顿场均创造19.4次大空位三分球机会（这意味着最近的防守者距离超过6英尺），而今年这个数字实际上增加到了21.3次。
发生变化的是，上个赛季他们场均命中8.1个这样的投篮（41.6%），而目前只略微提高到8.2个，他们38.5%的命中率低于平均水平，仅排在联盟第16位。对于一支可以说是联盟中最好的投篮球队来说，这个百分比必然会提高，尤其是如果他们继续创造这么多空位机会的话。杰伦·布朗(Jaylen Brown)、朱·霍勒迪(Jrue Holiday)和波尔津吉斯都不可能继续保持低于35%的三分球命中率。
坦率地说，这似乎只是一支经验丰富的球队正在经历另一个漫长赛季的低迷期，他们会在季后赛到来时再次提升状态。即便如此，骑士队和雷霆队与波士顿队属于同一梯队，毫无疑问，这三支球队已经将自己与联盟其他球队拉开了差距。
本周，请查看Pete关于Hector Banana-Bread 文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)如何扩展他的进攻手段的文章！Pete出色地运用数据分析了文班的比赛和他的三分球投篮。
感谢阅读！希望每个人都在2025年有一个美好的开端。不知不觉中，我们现在距离2050年比距离2000年更近了……
所有统计数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: a historic Cavs-Thunder showdown, checking in on the Celtics
Around the NBA: a historic Cavs-Thunder showdown, checking in on the Celtics
It’s time to analyze the three best teams in the league.
Wednesday night’s Cavs-Thunder showdown was one of the best regular season games of the last decade. It was the first time in NBA history that two teams on pace for 70+ wins played this late in the season, and it felt like a playoff game given that both sides had two days off to prep. What’s more, it featured the league’s best offense (Cleveland, 123.5 offensive rating) and defense (OKC, 104.4 defensive rating), with both playing at a historically great level on their respective sides of the ball.
Alongside Boston, Cleveland and OKC are undoubtedly heavy favorites to go on a long postseason run, so it’s worth analyzing the game to find takeaways in a potential finals matchup. Let’s start with the Cavs.
It’s 2024 2025, and the Cavs are dominating with two bigs!
One of the biggest differences between this Cleveland team and the one last year is that the Twin Towers duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is now a strength on offense. With both on the court this season, Cleveland has a whopping 124.1 ORTG (96th percentile) — an astronomical improvement on their measly 112.8 ORTG (36th percentile) last year.
So, what’s changed? For starters, Kenny Atkinson has empowered the bigs to run two-man action amongst themselves. The Cavs always space the court with three shooters whenever they share the court, and a simple high pick and roll opens up easy baskets since the opposing team is reluctant to help from the perimeter.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2025
Mobley’s added strength and aggression have also made it easy for Cleveland’s coaching staff to run more plays for him attacking downhill. By putting the ball in Mobley’s hands at the top of the key, the lane isn’t as clogged since Allen is the only one in the paint. If Allen’s man stays with him, Mobley can punish his mismatch against a smaller player, and if he’s doubled, then he can dump the ball to an open Allen.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2025
If neither big is involved in the action, the Cavs will also have Mobley space out on the perimeter so that Allen’s the lone man down low — a strategy that works now that the former is shooting 41.4% from deep on 2.8 attempts per game. Simply put, Cleveland has turned their two bigs problem into a strength through some innovative set designs and natural growth from Mobley. Pair that with a bounceback season from Darius Garland and you have an all-time offense that was the Cavs’ biggest weakness as recently as last season.
More importantly, Cleveland gave everyone the blueprint on how to penetrate an OKC defense that seemed insurmountable. Every one of the Thunder’s rotation players is an above-average to elite man defender, so the Cavs generated good shots through ball movement instead of relying on isolations. Cleveland only trusted Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Ty Jerome to handle the ball for long stretches to limit OKC’s chance at forcing turnovers, and everyone knows their role. Outside of the guards and bigs, everyone else’s job on offense is to shoot, and they run multiple sets to create good shots.
For example, the very first possession of the game included two high-ball screens that led to an open three from Dean Wade. Cleveland knows that the Thunder likes to switch their perimeter defenders but not their bigs, so when SGA fought over Allen’s screen, Isaiah Hartenstein had to temporarily stunt toward Garland to contain his drive. This left him a step behind the play, forcing Cason Wallace to help down low and leaving Wade open in the corner.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2025
Whenever the Cavs got in the paint, they would also pull Hartenstein out of position before attempting shots around the basket (like the first clip shown above) since he’s an elite rim protector. As a result, the Cavs made an impressive 23/33 shots within four feet of the basket, a nice 69.7% conversion rate that is over 8% higher than what OKC usually gives up in that area. That Cleveland dropped 129 points on the league’s best defense without having an outlier shooting performance (they made 15/36 from three, which is still 41.7% but on four fewer attempts than their season average) and an off-night from Mitchell (3/16 for 11 points) proves that this Cavs offense is legit.
Has OKC fixed their offensive “issues”?
On the other side, OKC putting up 122 points was perhaps even more impressive. After a slow offensive start to the season, the Thunder have now climbed to 7th league-wide in offensive rating (116.7). Even so, there’s no doubt that the biggest question mark surrounding this OKC team is whether they can generate enough scoring to win four playoff rounds.
Shai is the head of the snake. When Mr. Aura is on the court, the Thunder tend to run everything through him, especially when the opposing team is giving up soft switches. Cleveland did exactly that on Wednesday night, and Shai happily cooked all of his assignments with his all-time-level iso abilities.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 12, 2025
So far this season, Shai is averaging the second most isolations per game (only behind James Harden) and scoring an average of 1.05 points per play, ranking in the 84.7% percentile amongst all players. With him playing, OKC’s offense looks quite stagnant due to his iso-heavy style, but there’s no reason to change given that the Thunder’s offensive rating skyrockets to 120.2 with him on the court.
Unfortunately, that number plummets all the way down to 106.1 when he sits — which would be barely better than the last-place Wizards at 105.8. Almost all of OKC’s lineups without Shai feature their second option, Jalen Williams, too, so staggering their stars hasn’t worked either.
However, that wasn’t the case against Cleveland. When Shai sat for the majority of the third quarter due to foul trouble, the Thunder actually put up 43 points, largely fueled by the combination of JDub and Hartenstein. The latter, in particular, played a huge role in keeping their offense afloat through his passing and soft touch around the basket.
On back-to-back plays, Hartenstein made a nice floater before running a hand-off action with Isaiah Joe for an open three.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 12, 2025
The big man made his presence felt even before Shai exited the game, as he had a nice drive and pass for Wallace down low.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 12, 2025
On the season, Hartenstein is shooting 53% from the mid-range (91st percentile), and he particularly likes the little floater that was shown in the previous clip. He’s also a very good passer with a 19.1% assist percentage that ranks in the 89th percentile, and the Thunder made a conscious choice to run more sets that got him involved when Shai was on the bench. It’s not a coincidence that Hartenstein’s 23.6% usage in the Cavs game resulted in one of OKC’s better offensive performances of the year, considering that his average usage is just 17.6%.
In other words, the Thunder need to get Hartenstein more involved, especially when Shai is off the court. OKC’s offense incorporates a lot more movement when they’re without their superstar, and Hartenstein needs to be at the center of that given his unique playmaking abilities as a big. When Chet returns, the Thunder will have another versatile big who can also space the floor, and having him back could elevate the non-Shai offense to passable levels instead of being downright putrid.
Impressively, OKC is still winning their minutes without Shai due to them having an absurd 104.8 DRTG without their superstar. Chet will only add to that, so the Thunder will outscore teams regardless of how much their offense struggles. Getting another big back will help their matchup in a potential finals show-down against Cleveland, too, as the Cavs can’t play hot potato between their bigs when OKC can counter with their own Twin Towers duo. For example, poor Hartenstein won’t be stuck between Mobley and Allen like in the clip below.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 12, 2025
Regardless of Chet’s health status, this OKC team will be title contenders. To have a historic 104.3 DRTG without their most impactful defender is absurd, and Shai’s scoring alone is enough for them to beat anyone due to their defensive backbone.
What about the big bad Celtics?
Boston has gone just 6-6 over their last 12 games, with the most notable loss coming to OKC when they scored just 27 points in the entire second half.
Given their history and talent, though, I still believe that the Celtics are the team to beat. Their two biggest issues currently are the play of Kristaps Porzingis and below-average three-point shooting, both of which I expect to bounce back positively.
Porzingis simply looks out of rhythm, and Boston has struggled to integrate him back into the lineup. With him on the court this season, the Celtics have a net rating of just +2.4 (114.3 ORTG, 111.9 DRTG), and they’re a staggering +12.8 (123.2 ORTG, 110.4 DRTG) when he sits. However, the important thing is that Tingus Pingus is still getting to his spots, most specifically the post.
Boston is known for their three-point shooting, but an underrated part of their elite offense is the number of other looks they can easily get if their shots aren’t falling. Porzingis has been one of the best post-up players in the league the past few seasons, and nothing’s changed this year: he’s currently scoring a robust 1.17 points per post-up (84th percentile) while averaging the 7th most attempts on a per-game basis. Due to Boston’s versatility, it’s easy for them to create a mismatch for Porzingis down low, and it’s BBQ chicken from there.
The fact that Porzingis is still lethal from the post means that Boston still has an offensive trump card, and their issue currently is just that the Unicorn doesn’t seem in sync with their scheme. However, given that he’s almost missed an entire year of basketball due to injury before returning in November, it should only be a matter of time before Big Tingus starts feeling comfortable again.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 13, 2025
The other problem plaguing Boston is that they’re “only” shooting 37% from three when they made 39.3% last year. Interestingly, the Celtics are generating even better looks from deep than the season before: in 2023-24, Boston created 19.4 wide-open shots from deep (meaning that the closest defender was over 6 feet away), and that’s actually increased to 21.3 this year.
What’s changed is that they made 8.1 of those shots last season (41.6%) and that’s only improved marginally to 8.2 currently, and their 38.5% conversion rate is below average, ranking just 16th league-wide. For arguably the best shooting team in the league, that percentage is bound to improve, especially if they keep creating so many open looks. There’s just no way that Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Porzingis will all continue converting less than 35% of their attempts.
Frankly, this seems like a veteran team just going through the doldrums of another long season, and they’ll hit another gear come playoff time. Even so, the Cavs and Thunder belong in the same tier as Boston, and there’s no doubt that these three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the league.
This week, please check out Pete’s article on how Hector Banana-Bread Wemby is expanding his offensive game! Pete does a great job of using numbers to break down Wemby’s play and his three-point shooting.
Thanks for reading! I hope everyone’s having a great start to 2025. Somehow, we’re closer to 2050 than 2000 now…
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock