By Pete_Orthez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-01-11 00:00:51
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
当文班投进三分球时，他的球队总是胜率更高，但这对球队来说是一个过高的依赖标准。
早期倾向——或者说行为的延续性——不仅适用于普通人，也适用于篮球运动员。例如，观看年轻的特雷·琼斯(Tre Jones)的比赛录像，你会发现他的比赛风格在15岁时就已经很明显了。
这就引出了一个有趣的问题：研究文班亚马早年的比赛能否揭示一些模式，以预测他未来的发展轨迹？
我观看了文班自16岁以来参加的大部分比赛。就早期倾向和篮球特质而言，最有趣的比赛发生在国际篮联U19世界杯期间。当时文班比所有其他球员都小一岁，但却打出了令人难以置信的高光表现。法国队最终在决赛中输给了由切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)领衔的美国队。
为了进一步探究文班的成功，我分析了他在2022-23赛季效力于大都会92队的比赛，重点关注了他在常规赛（34场）、季后赛（10场）和领袖杯（1场）的45场比赛。本次分析排除了两场对阵G联赛点燃队的表演赛、法国全明星赛和四场世界杯预选赛。总而言之，文班在上个赛季在法国打了52场正式比赛。
必须强调的是，他以法甲联赛“最佳年轻球员”和MVP的身份结束了这一年，领跑联盟得分、篮板和盖帽榜——对于一个19岁的球员来说，这是一项里程碑式的成就。他在这45场比赛中的场均数据如下：
32.3分钟，20.8分，46%投篮命中率，55.4%两分球命中率，27%三分球命中率，78.6%罚球命中率，10.3个篮板，2.5次助攻，3次盖帽，0.8次抢断，2.9次失误，正负值+3.38。
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皮特·奥尔特兹(Pete Orthez)
将这些数据按胜负场次进行细分，揭示了一个关键洞察：文班的三分球效率是一个决定性因素。在球队获胜的比赛中，他的三分球命中率为35.4%，但在球队失利的比赛中，他的命中率暴跌至13%。尽管在失利的比赛中效率低下，但他通过更多的进攻篮板（每场多1.2个）来弥补，积极拼抢自己的投篮不中，以保持球权。
时间快进到本赛季，这种趋势依然存在。在他参加的32场比赛（16胜16负）中，文班数据的主要差异仍然是他的三分球效率：胜场42%对负场29%。同样，他在失利比赛中的篮板球数据有所上升，这主要得益于进攻篮板。
关键问题：文班的三分球应该扮演什么角色？
文班的远投是否会直接影响比赛结果？如果他少投三分，他的球队会赢得更多比赛吗？或者相反，他投进三分的能力是成功的关键吗？汤姆·哈伯斯特罗(Tom Haberstroh)和丹·迪瓦恩(Dan Devine)深入研究了这些数据，以说明这位法国大个子在NBA中正变得多么独一无二：
在防守端，他的统治力毋庸置疑。文班凭借其横向和纵向覆盖空间的能力，已经重新定义了球场几何学。他甚至挑战像乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)这样的精英球员（尽管他们有时仍然可以用体型欺负他）。在新秀赛季获得最佳防守球员评选第二名后，他本赛季很有可能获得该奖项。
然而，在进攻端，讨论则更加微妙。批评者质疑他是否在logo三分线、进攻时间过早或时机不合适的情况下投了太多三分。他们也想知道为什么他没有采用更多高命中率的投篮方式，比如蒂姆·邓肯(Tim Duncan)的擦板投篮或德克·诺维茨基(Dirk Nowitzki)的后仰跳投。然而，如果稳定的三分球命中率超过36%是赢得更多比赛的关键，那么马刺队的战略应该围绕优化文班的投篮选择和效率展开。
这引出了更广泛的问题：
什么样的比赛计划能让文班处于进攻舒适区？圣安东尼奥需要什么样的阵容来执行这样的策略？给他配备更多射手能否拉开防守，给他创造更好的投篮机会？马刺队是否应该增加更多的大个子来防止对手在身体上压制他？
在最近输给密尔沃基的比赛中，字母哥的防守非常出色，将文班的投篮次数限制在10次。但这引出了一个问题：为什么不尝试和，比如说，保罗(CP3)打挡拆，这样可以让文班对位保罗的防守人而不是字母哥？
这些问题不容易回答，但很明显，马刺队正在尝试现有人员，以找到能够补充文班优势的球员。他们多快找到合适的公式将影响他们重建的步伐，并最终影响他们何时能够再次悬挂总冠军旗帜。
很多人都在谈论哪位现役球星（通过自由球员市场或交易）能够加快马刺队争冠的步伐。但这是正确的问题吗？他们真的需要另一位球星吗？文班是如此独特和非传统，他可能需要不同类型球员的组合，而不是一个“罗宾”来帮助他实现高投篮效率，特别是如果三分命中率对比赛胜负的影响的趋势继续下去的话。
点击查看原文：How Victor Wembayama expanding his offensive game would help the Spurs
How Victor Wembayama expanding his offensive game would help the Spurs
Wemby’s teams have always won more when he hits threes, but that’s a high bar to be reliant on.
The idea that early tendencies — or behavioral continuity — persist over time applies not just to people but also to basketball players. For example, watching footage of a young Tre Jones reveals a player whose style of play was evident even at age 15.
This raises an intriguing question: could examining Victor Wembanyama’s earlier years also reveal patterns that inform his future trajectory?
I have watched most games Victor has played since he was 16. The most interesting games in terms of early tendencies and basketball traits took place during the FIBA U19 World Cup. Victor was one year younger than all other players and yet produced unbelievable highlights. France eventually lost to Chet Holmgren’s USA team in the Final.
To explore Victor’s success further, I analyzed Victor’s 2022-23 season with Metropolitans 92, focusing on the 45 games he played across the regular season (34), playoffs (10), and Leaders Cup (1). Excluded from this analysis were two exhibition games against G-League Ignite, the French All-Star Game, and four World Cup qualifiers. All told, Victor played 52 official games in his last season in France.
It’s essential to highlight that he capped the year as both “Best Young Player” and MVP of the LNB League, leading the league in points, rebounds, and blocks — a monumental feat for a 19-year-old. His per-game stats from those 45 games were as follows:
32.3 minutes, 20.8 points, 46% FG, 55.4% 2PT, 27% 3PT, 78.6% FT, 10.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 3 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2.9 turnovers, +/- of +3.38.
Pete Orthez
Breaking these numbers down by wins and losses revealed a key insight: Victor’s three-point efficiency was a decisive factor. In wins, he shot 35.4% from deep, but in losses, his accuracy plummeted to 13%. Despite this inefficiency in losses, he compensated with more offensive rebounds (+1.2 per game), chasing down his misses to keep possessions alive.
Fast forward to this season, and the trend persists. In the 32 games he has played (16 wins, 16 losses), the main difference in Victor’s stats remains his 3-point efficiency: 42% in wins versus 29% in losses. Once again, his rebounding numbers rise in losses, driven largely by offensive boards.
The Key Question: What Role Should Victor’s 3-Point Shooting Play?
Does Victor’s long-range shooting directly impact the outcome of games? Would his teams win more if he took fewer threes? Or, conversely, is his ability to make threes the linchpin of success? Tom Haberstroh and Dan Devine dive deep into the numbers to illustrate how much of a unicorn the French big man is becoming in the NBA:
Defensively, there’s no debate about his dominance. Victor has already redefined court geometry with his ability to cover space both horizontally and vertically. He challenges even elite players like Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo (even though they still can physically bully him with their size at times). He has a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year honors after finishing as the runner-up in his rookie season.
Offensively, however, the discussion is more nuanced. Critics question whether he takes too many threes from the logo, early in the shot clock, or simply ill-timed. They also wonder why he hasn’t adopted more high-percentage shots, like Tim Duncan’s bank shots or Dirk Nowitzki’s fadeaways. Yet, if consistent three-point shooting above 36% is the key to more wins, the Spurs’ strategy should evolve around optimizing Victor’s shot selection and efficiency.
This raises broader questions:
What game plan can put Victor in his offensive comfort zone? What kind of roster does San Antonio need to execute such a strategy? Would surrounding him with more shooters stretch defenses and give him better looks? Should the Spurs add more bigs to prevent opponents from physically overpowering him?
In the recent loss against Milwaukee, Giannis’s defense was outstanding, limiting the Frenchman to a total of 10 field goal attempts. But this begs the question: why was there no pick-and-roll with, say, CP3, which would have left Wemby against CP3’s man instead of Giannis?
These questions aren’t easily answered, but it’s clear the Spurs are experimenting with current personnel to find players who complement Victor’s strengths. How quickly they discover the right formula will influence the pace of their rebuild and, ultimately, how soon they hang their next championship banner.
A lot of talk is happening about which current star (via free agency or trade) would speed up the Spurs’ path to contention. But is this the right question? Do they need another star? Victor is so unique and unconventional that he might need a combination of different types of players rather than one “Robin” to help him achieve high shooting efficiency, especially if the trend of that being the ultimate impact towards winning games continues.
By Pete_Orthez, via Pounding The Rock