By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Jacob Douglas, Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-01-03 08:44:34
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
马刺在一月份将两度对阵掘金、湖人、灰熊和步行者，同时本月还将迎战热火、雄鹿、公牛和快船。
马刺在一月份面临着残酷的赛程，只有两场比赛的对手胜率低于五成。你认为他们13场比赛能赢多少场？
玛丽莲·杜宾斯基(Marilyn Dubinski): 如果他们在一月份能将胜率保持在五成左右，那就很成功了。老实说，比起赛程强度，我更担心的是他们客场作战的时间。正如他们上周所了解到的，他们在客场不能犯下迟到的错误，还指望赢球，但他们也展现出了与强队抗衡的能力。我能预见他们会赢下对阵公牛的比赛，以及在巴黎的两场对步行者的比赛，然后他们只需要再赢两场，就能以接近五成的胜率结束一月。在迈阿密客场赢球是有可能的，也许是近因偏差，但主场对阵快船也是可以赢的。除了步行者之外，他们还有三个迷你系列赛：主客场对阵掘金（他们很脆弱）、客客场对阵湖人、主主场对阵灰熊。通常情况下，球队会在这些系列赛中各赢一场，所以我预计不会所有三个系列赛都被对手横扫（也许只有湖人会）。
雅各布·道格拉斯(Jacob Douglas): 我预计马刺本月的战绩会接近五成。他们会从雄鹿或掘金这样的热门球队手中偷走一场胜利。他们之前输给了公牛，但那是一场可以赢的比赛。他们与热火的比赛对决实力相当，而且在法国对阵步行者应该会给他们带来提升，因为家乡的孩子会在那里献上一场精彩的演出。我预测他们会赢六到七场。
杰西斯·戈麦斯(Jesus Gomez): 他们可能会输掉全部13场比赛，这并不令人震惊，这很疯狂。希望他们能够在东部球队身上捞到一些好处。在芝加哥的比赛，两场对阵印第安纳的比赛，以及对阵迈阿密的比赛感觉都是可以赢的。我看了一下与西部球队和雄鹿的比赛中是否有休息优势，但没有对手会处于背靠背的第二场比赛。我想说，如果他们能赢六场，他们就已经做得不错了。
比尔·黄(Bill Huan): 全部13场，杰西斯？我还以为我是这个团队里最悲观的人。说真的，我不认为马刺会有很好的战绩；4-5场胜利左右听起来比较合理。即使文班亚马(Wembanyama)打得像联盟前五的球员，如果他们能达到五成胜率或更好，我也会欣喜若狂，同时感到震惊。一个被低估的因素是，他们将要对阵的大多数球队都更渴望胜利。这并不是说马刺不想赢球，但与他们在这个残酷的赛程中将要对阵的大多数球队相比，他们仍然更愿意尝试和在必要时让球员休息。
马刺在一月份之后的战绩将决定他们在交易截止日是买家还是卖家。对还是错？
杜宾斯基: 在一定程度上是对的。我认为无论如何他们都会保持开放的态度，所以一月份更可能决定他们追求哪种类型的交易，无论是为了选秀权而进行的薪金/合同倾销，还是真正地追求升级。已经有传言说他们不打算“本赛季”交易德文·瓦塞尔或凯尔登·约翰逊，所以听起来他们不打算对主要核心阵容做出任何改变，更不用说与克里斯·保罗的合作已经很顺利了。这就只剩下哈里森·巴恩斯和扎克·科林斯作为他们的主要筹码。如果他们正在寻找一个主要的升级，那应该是在替补中锋的位置上，我会一直敲响约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯的鼓，直到交易发生或者他被交易到其他地方。
道格拉斯: 错。这段时间会证明他们现在准备好了吗？也许吧。但我认为这里有一个比本赛季更长远的计划。如果他们能以低价得到一个到期合同的老将，比如瓦兰丘纳斯或乔丹·克拉克森，来帮助他们挤进附加赛，那就这样吧。如果没有这些机会，我就看不到他们在交易截止日孤注一掷。同样，我也看不到他们为了获得选秀权而拆散阵容，交易像保罗和巴恩斯这样的老将。我认为无论这个月发生什么，我们都会在交易截止日看到一些小动作。
戈麦斯: 对，差不多。如果他们赢的比赛比预期的多，并且牢牢地处于季后赛的争夺中，这可能会让他们更积极地寻求升级，尤其是在替补中锋位置上。但如果他们输了很多，我怀疑他们是否会积极地成为卖家。克里斯·保罗似乎在圣安东尼奥很开心。凯尔登·约翰逊的合同太好了，不能轻易交易他，除非有比看起来更现实的市场。也许他们会送走哈里森·巴恩斯来换取一个二轮签？在我看来这不太可能。如果马刺在接下来的比赛中表现不佳，我预计会在休赛期进行更大的动作。
（另外，声明一下，我不认为他们会输掉全部13场，比尔！我只是说，如果你孤立地看待每一场比赛，他们确实有可能输给任何对手。只是需要澄清一下。我有点悲观，但我还没到那个地步。）
黄: 现实地说？错。唯一能让我改变主意的场景是，如果马刺不知何故逆转所有预期，在一月份赢下大部分比赛，从而稳固季后赛席位。到那时，或许值得增加一个有深度的球员——只要它不抵押未来的关键部分。
然而，如果事情像我们预期的那样发展，马刺仍然处于季后赛边缘，甚至更差，他们不应该做出任何重大举动。圣安东尼奥太优秀了，不适合摆烂，而且老将们似乎很乐意留在球队，所以我怀疑有任何大动作在酝酿之中。
如果情况不妙，马刺到二月份更接近排名垫底，他们应该考虑摆烂吗？
杜宾斯基: 不。他们已经明确地将自己与联盟垫底的球队划分为完全不同的等级，而且到那时他们可能也无法通过摆烂一路跌到谷底。（更不用说，只要文班在场上，我敢打赌他不会让这种情况发生。一个赛季的失利对他来说已经足够了。）凭借他们所有的资产和选秀权，包括今年夏天看起来至少有两个乐透末段或十几顺位的选秀权，如果他们真的想要一个可能遥不可及的球员，他们或许可以找到一种方法在不摆烂的情况下向上交易选秀权。
道格拉斯: 不，我认为他们不应该摆烂。老实说，这支球队太好了，不适合摆烂，而且文班亚马、索汉(Sochan)、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)和瓦塞尔可能获得的季后赛经验远比在这个时候为了乐透签位而战更有价值。然而，今年的选秀大会太好了。获得一个前十顺位的选秀权可以让你获得一个潜在的第三或第四选择。我不能撒谎说我没有关注过卡斯帕斯·雅库乔尼斯、迪伦·哈珀和特雷·约翰逊这样的新秀，希望他们在选秀之夜能被马刺选中。
戈麦斯: 为时已晚。如果马刺这个月表现糟糕，他们可能会接近西部排名垫底，但东部有三支糟糕的球队，西部有两支。再加上篮网，他们很可能会尝试摆烂，这个名单上已经有太多糟糕的球队，试图超越他们摆烂是不可能的。如果一月份的情况不顺利，我们可能会看到球队对伤病更加谨慎，一些边缘球员会得到更多机会，但彻底摆烂已经是过去式了。
黄: 不！这个赛季一直以来，并且应该继续关注我们拥有什么，并为未来做准备，而摆烂可能会破坏这一点。正如其他人所说，这支球队的阵容也太有天赋了，不会在排名中下降那么多，而且除了前五名之外，今年的选秀大会相当平淡。马刺不可能输掉足够多的比赛来获得一个好的位置去得到这些选秀权，所以摆烂应该被排除在外。
点击查看原文：The Spurs’ brutal January schedule could make or break their season
The Spurs’ brutal January schedule could make or break their season
The Spurs will face the Nuggets, Lakers, Grizzlies and Pacers twice in January and will also play the Heat, Bucks, Bulls and Clippers this month.
The Spurs are facing a brutal schedule in January, with only two matchups coming against teams with losing records. How many of their 13 games do you think they will win?
Marilyn Dubinski: If they can keep hovering within a game or two of .500 for the month of January, it will be a success, and honestly, the amount of time they’re on the road is more concerning than the strength of schedule to me. As they learned last week, they can’t make late mistakes on the road and expect to win, but they have also shown they can keep up with good teams. I can see them winning the Bulls game and the two against the Pacers in Paris, then they just need to win two more to come out the other end still within a game of .500. At Miami is winnable, and maybe it’s recency bias but home vs. the Clippers is winnable. They also have three other miniseries besides the Pacers: home-away vs. Nuggets (who are vulnerable), away-away vs. Lakers, home-home vs. Memphis. More often than not, teams split those series, so I don’t expect all three to be a full sweep by the opponent (maybe just the Lakers).
Jacob Douglas: I’m expecting a close to .500 record this month for the Spurs. They’ll steal a game against a favorite like Milwaukee or Denver. They previously lost to Chicago but that is a winnable game. They have a good matchup with Miami and playing in France against the Pacers should give them a boost as the hometown kid puts on a show. Six or seven wins is my prediction.
Jesus Gomez: They could lose all 13 and it wouldn’t be shocking, which is crazy. Hopefully they’ll be able to feast on the East teams. The game in Chicago, the two against Indiana, and the one against Miami feel winnable. I looked to see if any of the matchups against the Western teams and the Bucks had a rest advantage, but no opponent will be on the second game of a back-to-back. I’ll say that if they can win six, they will have done a good job.
Bill Huan: All 13, Jesus?? And I thought that I was the Debbie Downer of this crew. In all seriousness, I don’t think the Spurs will have a great record, either; something around 4-5 wins sounds about right. I’d be ecstatic and shocked if they go .500 or better, even with Wemby playing like a borderline top 5 player in the league. A factor that’s being under-discussed is that most of the teams they’ll be playing are more desperate for wins. That’s not to say the Spurs don’t want to rack up Ws, but they’re still more willing to experiment and rest guys if necessary than most teams they’ll be playing during this brutal stretch.
The Spurs record after January will determine whether they are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. True or false?
Dubinski: True to an extent. I think they will have open ears regardless, so January is more likely to decide what type of trade they pursue, be it just salary/contract dumps for draft capital or truly pursuing upgrades. Rumor already has it that they aren’t interested in trading Devin Vassell or Keldon Johnson “this season”, so it doesn’t sound like they plan to make any changes to the main core, not to mention the marriage with Chris Paul has worked out well. That leaves Harrison Barnes and Zach Collins as their main bargaining chips. If they are looking for a major upgrade, it should be at backup center, and I’ll keep pounding the Jonas Valanciunas drum either until it happens or he’s traded elsewhere.
Douglas: False. Will this stretch prove how ready they are right now? Maybe. But I think there is a longer-term plan here than just this season. If they can get a veteran on an expiring who can help them squeak into the play-in like Valanciunas or Jordan Clarkson on a cheap deal, so be it. If those opportunities aren’t there, I just don’t see them pushing all their chips in at the deadline. Likewise, I can’t see them blowing up the roster to gain draft capital for contributing veterans like Paul and Barnes. I think we’ll see a marginal move at the deadline no matter what happens this month.
Gomez: True, kind of. If they win more games than anticipated and are firmly in the playoff race, it can lead them to be more aggressive looking for upgrades, especially at backup center. But if they lose a lot, I doubt they will be aggressive sellers. Chris Paul seems happy in San Antonio. Keldon Johnson’s contract is too good to just move him unless there’s a better market for him than it seems realistic to anticipate. Maybe they send Harrison Barnes out for a second rounder? It doesn’t feel likely to me. I expect bigger moves in the offseason if the Spurs underwhelm the rest of the way.
(Also, for the record, I don’t think they’ll lose all 13, Bill! I’m just saying that if you look at each matchup in isolation, they could realistically lose to any opponent. Just needed to clarify that. I’m a bit of a doomer, but I’m not that far gone.)
Huan: Realistically? False. The only scenario in which I’d change my mind would be if the Spurs somehow defy all expectations and win most of their games in January, putting them in firm playoff position. At that point, it might be worth adding a depth piece — as long as it doesn’t mortgage a critical part of the future.
However, if things play out as we expect and the Spurs are still on the bubble, or even slightly worse, they shouldn’t make any drastic moves. San Antonio’s too good to tank and the vets seem pretty happy to stay with the team, so I doubt any big moves are in play.
If things go wrong and the Spurs are closer to the bottom of the standings by February, should they consider tanking?
Dubinski: No. They have clearly established themselves in an entirely different tier than the bottom of the league and probably couldn’t tank their way all the way down by then. (Not to mention, I’m willing to bet Wemby wouldn’t let it happen as long as he’s on the court. One season of losing was enough for him.) With all their assets and draft capital, including what’s looking to be at least two picks in the late lottery or teens this summer, they could probably find a way to trade up in the draft without tanking if there is someone they really want that may be just out of reach.
Douglas: No, I don’t think they should tank. Honestly, this team is too good for that and the playoff experience Wembanyama, Sochan, Castle and Vassell could get is far more valuable than playing for the lottery at this point. However, this draft is so good. Getting a pick in the top 10 could get you a potential 3rd or 4th option. I can’t lie and say I haven’t been watching prospects like Kasparas Jakučionis, Dylan Harper, and Tre Johnson with hopes they might be available to the Spurs on draft night.
Gomez: It’s too late for that. The Spurs might be near the bottom of the standings in the West if they have a bad month, but the East has three horrific teams and the West has two. Add the Nets, which are likely going to try to tank, to that list and there are too many bad teams to try to out-tank. Maybe we see the franchise be a little more cautious with injuries and some fringe players getting more opportunities if things don’t go well in January, but outright tanking is in the past.
Huan: No! This season has and should continue to be about seeing what we have and preparing for the future, and tanking could undermine that. As others have stated, the roster is also too talented to fall that far in the standings, and this year’s draft is pretty bare outside of the top 5. There’s no way the Spurs will be able to lose enough to get in a good position to get one of those picks, so tanking should be off the table.
By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Jacob Douglas, Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock