By Neil Paine | ESPN, 2024-12-24 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
2024-25 NBA赛季至今，成名球星一直占据中心舞台。上赛季MVP票选前两位——丹佛的尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokić)和俄克拉荷马城的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)——再次成为领跑者，而两届MVP得主扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)则在上周带领密尔沃基雄鹿队夺得了NBA杯冠军。
然而，我们最喜欢的年度NBA故事情节之一仍然有很大的空间：年轻球员的崛起。根据我的RAPTOR正负值(WAR)估算指标，联盟中最具价值的十名球员中有八位年龄在30岁以下，联盟26.4岁的平均年龄在1976年ABA合并后的49个赛季中排名第15年轻。
换句话说，这个赛季是年轻人的天下——以下这组球员就是最好的证明。具体来说，九位25岁以下的球员相比上赛季有了显著的进步。从前乐透秀到落选秀，我们整理了一份突破球员的名单，他们：
• 年龄在25岁以下
• 按82场比赛计算，WAR值至少达到2
• 2024-25赛季之前的职业生涯WAR值低于10
• 之前从未有过单赛季2.5 WAR的赛季
• 本赛季的WAR值（按82场比赛计算）至少提高了2.5
对于每位球员，我将列出本赛季让他们进步如此之大的原因，并根据我的相似性指数系统列出他们在同年龄段最具可比性的球员。
跳转到章节：
前十顺位 | 首轮秀
次轮秀 | 落选秀
前十顺位
戴森·丹尼尔斯(Dyson Daniels)
年龄：21 | SG，亚特兰大老鹰
丹尼尔斯也被称为“大堡礁窃贼”，他本赛季的进步令人震惊。
这位2022年选秀大会的8号秀上赛季作为鹈鹕队的一员，在RAPTOR正负值方面已经取得了巨大的飞跃（从-3.2到+0.1），但本赛季作为老鹰队的首发2号位，他在21岁时再次取得了更大的进步（上升到+1.4）。丹尼尔斯不仅场均得分达到职业生涯最高的13.1分，而且他的防守RAPTOR正负值达到了+2.5，这让他成为NBA最好的侧翼防守者之一。
关键数据： 丹尼尔斯在防守端非常全能且积极。他场均抢断数(3.0)领跑NBA，每36分钟的干扰球数排名联盟第三。
同年龄段相似球员： 1983-84赛季的克莱德·德雷克斯勒(Clyde Drexler)，1987-88赛季的斯科蒂·皮蓬(Scottie Pippen)，2022-23赛季的杰伦·萨格斯(Jalen Suggs)
凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham)
年龄：23 | PG，底特律活塞
坎宁安是2021年选秀大会的状元秀，但由于早期的效率挣扎以及2022-23赛季大部分时间因腿伤缺阵，他的球星之路有所延迟。但他上赛季场均得分提升至22.7分，展现了复苏的迹象，并且在2024-25赛季攻防两端都有所进步。坎宁安在防守端仍需努力，他的真实命中率仍然低于联盟平均水平——这固然受限于他较低的罚球率和更低的投篮质量。然而，他场均得到24分和近10次助攻，证明了坎宁安作为一名控球手在这个级别的进步。
关键数据： 坎宁安场均得到24.0分，并通过助攻贡献了25.3分，他的得分贡献（49.3分）在符合条件的NBA球员中排名第六。
NBA得分贡献榜
2024-25赛季NBA得分贡献榜，结合了得分和助攻得分。
| 球员 | 球队 | 出场 | 场均得分 | 助攻得分 | 总计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 尼古拉·约基奇 | DEN | 23 | 30.9 | 25.9 | 56.8 |
| 2. 特雷·杨 | ATL | 27 | 21.6 | 30.0 | 51.6 |
| 3. 拉梅洛·鲍尔 | CHA | 20 | 30.4 | 19.5 | 49.9 |
| 4. 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 | MIL | 23 | 32.7 | 16.9 | 49.6 |
| 5. 卢卡·东契奇 | DAL | 20 | 28.9 | 20.6 | 49.5 |
| 6. 凯德·坎宁安 | DET | 25 | 24.0 | 25.3 | 49.3 |
| 7. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 | OKC | 27 | 30.3 | 16.5 | 46.8 |
| 8. 达米安·利拉德 | MIL | 22 | 25.7 | 19.5 | 45.2 |
| 9. 勒布朗·詹姆斯 | LAL | 26 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 45.0 |
| 10. 杰伦·布伦森 | NYK | 28 | 25.1 | 19.2 | 44.3 |
| 注：至少出场10场比赛 | |||||
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
同年龄段相似球员： 1995-96赛季的朱万·霍华德(Juwan Howard)，2021-22赛季的布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)，2023-24赛季的保罗·班凯罗(Paolo Banchero)
杰里米·索汉(Jeremy Sochan)
年龄：21 | PF，圣安东尼奥马刺
如何最好地发挥索汉的天赋，最初一直是马刺教练组的难题。上赛季，他们尝试让这位身高6英尺8英寸、技术全面的球员在当时的新秀维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)身边担任控球前锋，但结果远未达到预期。圣安东尼奥在索汉在场上的表现明显更差，尤其是当他和文班亚马一起打球时（净效率值为-3.8）。然而，本赛季，索汉（2022年选秀大会的9号秀）在健康的情况下效率和效果都大大提高，他的RAPTOR正负值从-3.0上升到+1.0。
关键数据： 索汉本赛季减少了无谓的球权损失。他的失误率从14.3%下降到12.8%，中距离出手比例从38%下降到32%。
同年龄段相似球员： 2012-13赛季和2013-14赛季的格雷格·门罗(Greg Monroe)，2017-18赛季的朗戴·霍利斯-杰弗森(Rondae Hollis-Jefferson)
前十顺位之外的首轮秀
奥侪·阿巴吉(Ochai Agbaji)
年龄：24 | SG，多伦多猛龙
在2024年，很少有球员的数据像阿巴吉一样经历如此大的起伏。这位2022年来自堪萨斯大学的14号秀曾效力于犹他爵士队，直到2月份的一笔交易截止日交易将他送到了多伦多。他以45.3%的糟糕真实命中率和-5.2的RAPTOR正负值结束了2023-24赛季，成为该赛季表现最差的球员之一。
但是，经过一个休赛期适应新球队和主教练达尔科·拉雅科维奇(Darko Rajakovic)的体系后，阿巴吉的效率有了根本性的提高，真实命中率提升至63.1%，排名联盟第30位，同时他的攻防两端的RAPTOR正负值也都有所提升。尤其值得一提的是，阿巴吉的三分命中率是联盟中进步最大的之一，从上赛季的29.4%飙升至本赛季的44.4%。
关键数据： 上赛季，98%的NBA球员的真实命中率都高于阿巴吉。本赛季，他扭转了局面——他的真实命中率高于86%的现役NBA球员。
同年龄段相似球员： 2019-20赛季的凯姆·约翰逊(Cam Johnson)，2018-19赛季的杰克·莱曼(Jake Layman)，2023-24赛季的亚伦·内史密斯(Aaron Nesmith)
克里斯蒂安·布劳恩(Christian Braun)
年龄：23 | SG，丹佛掘金
尽管约基奇再次打出了历史级的赛季，但本赛季他的辅助阵容因未能帮助丹佛赢得更多比赛而受到批评。但这不能怪布劳恩——这位三年级老将从2023年NBA总决赛中令人惊喜的新秀（2022年选秀大会的21号秀）成长为首发球员和掘金最重要的球员之一。在进攻端，他是掘金队主要的转换进攻得分点和38%的三分定点投手。在防守端，当他出场时，对手每百回合得分比他不在场时少10.8分。
布劳恩并不是肯塔维奥斯·考德威尔-波普(Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)或布鲁斯·布朗(Bruce Brown)的年轻版本，但他带来了类似的高效攻防兼备的比赛风格，这与掘金此前在夺冠赛季中从侧翼球员那里得到的东西相似。
关键数据： 布劳恩出现在了丹佛本赛季效率最高的五个五人阵容中的四个，以及掘金净胜分是正数的14个阵容中的10个。
同年龄段相似球员： 2012-13赛季的吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)，2023-24赛季的亚伦·威金斯(Aaron Wiggins)，1988-89赛季的埃德·平克尼(Ed Pinckney)
格雷迪·迪克(Gradey Dick)
年龄：21 | SG，多伦多猛龙
尽管多伦多猛龙队目前在东部联盟排名垫底，但他们在这份年轻球员突破名单上占有重要的位置，包括阿巴吉和迪克。就迪克而言，他入选这份名单是因为他将自己的比赛水平从联盟最差球员之一（RAPTOR正负值-5.2）提升到了基本达到联盟平均水平。 在他的第二个NBA赛季（2023年选秀大会的第13顺位），迪克承担了更大的进攻任务，他更有效地冲击篮筐，造犯规更多，每百回合得分也更高（从105分提升到111分）。
关键数据： 迪克本赛季真正展现了他的得分能力，场均得分18.3分——比2023-24赛季提高了10分。
同年龄段相似球员： 1984-85赛季的杰夫·马龙(Jeff Malone)，2012-13赛季和2011-12赛季的德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan)
杰克·拉拉维亚(Jake LaRavia)
年龄：23 | PF，孟菲斯灰熊
随着2023-24赛季最佳新秀GG·杰克逊二世(GG Jackson II)因伤缺席赛季初的比赛，拉拉维亚充分利用了他在灰熊队担任锋线摇摆人的机会。这位2022年的19号秀在进攻端每百回合得到120分，并且有着（对于大个子来说）相当不错的18.2%的助攻率。在防守端，他和贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)、斯科蒂·皮蓬二世(Scotty Pippen Jr.)以及布兰登·克拉克(Brandon Clarke)一起效力于联盟防守效率排名第四的球队，他在这里如鱼得水。
关键数据： 在孟菲斯的常规轮换球员中，只有克拉克（+15.6）的净效率值高于拉拉维亚（+13.7）。
同年龄段相似球员： 2010-11赛季的约什·麦克罗伯茨(Josh McRoberts)，2006-07赛季的夸梅·布朗(Kwame Brown)，1990-91赛季的格兰特·朗(Grant Long)
次轮秀
布兰登·波士顿(Brandon Boston)
年龄：23 | SG，新奥尔良鹈鹕
新奥尔良鹈鹕队本赛季表现糟糕，自季前赛以来损失的Elo等级积分比任何其他球队都多。 然而，波士顿一直是一个亮点。这位四年级侧翼球员领跑全队抢断榜；他在出场时间上排名第二，篮板和助攻排名第三，得分排名第四；并且他在所有符合条件的鹈鹕球员中拥有第二好的正负值（+6.8）。
波士顿是2021年选秀大会的第51顺位新秀，他一直引人注目，因为他有得分潜力——他在2024-25赛季之前的职业生涯使用率接近24%——但效率极低（每百回合得分98分）。本赛季，他的使用率（19.7%）回到了接近联盟平均水平，但效率更高，场均每百回合得分108分。
关键数据： 波士顿上赛季的RAPTOR正负值-7.4，在所有出场至少300分钟的球员中排名倒数第四。本赛季，他的正负值略高于联盟平均水平，为+0.2。
同年龄段相似球员： 1988-89赛季的温斯顿·加兰德(Winston Garland)，1982-83赛季的富兰克林·爱德华兹(Franklin Edwards)，1995-96赛季的布莱恩特·斯蒂斯(Bryant Stith)
落选秀
朱利安·尚帕尼(Julian Champagnie)
年龄：23 | SF，圣安东尼奥马刺
与这份名单上一些早期被选中的球员不同，尚帕尼在2022年落选，他不得不努力从发展联盟打出来，争取稳定的NBA出场时间。起初，他是通过防守做到的，这要归功于超过1.5%的盖帽率和抢断率，他的防守RAPTOR正负值上赛季达到了+0.5。 但本赛季，尚帕尼在进攻端也变得更加高效——他的使用率更高（现在达到了16.8%），两分球命中率也大幅提高，三分球命中率也达到了35%左右。尚帕尼仍然被认为是一名3D侧翼球员，主要依靠接球就投三分球得分，但每支球队都需要这样的球员才能赢球。
关键数据： 当尚帕尼防守时，对手在各个区域的投篮命中率都会降低。
同年龄段相似球员： 2013-14赛季的特伦斯·罗斯(Terrence Ross)，2009-10赛季的马特尔·韦伯斯特(Martell Webster)，2020-21赛季的凯姆·约翰逊(Cam Johnson)
点击查看原文：Breakout seasons for NBA players under age 25: Nine most improved
Breakout seasons for NBA players under age 25: Nine most improved
Established stars have been front and center so far during the 2024-25 NBA season, with last season’s top two MVP vote-getters — Denver’s Nikola Jokić and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — checking in as the front-runners again, and former two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the Milwaukee Bucks to the NBA Cup title last week.
There has still been plenty of room for one of our favorite annual NBA storylines, however: Young players on the rise. According to my estimated RAPTOR wins above replacement (WAR) metric, eight of the league’s top 10 most valuable players are under 30 years old, and the league’s overall average age of 26.4 ranks as the 15th youngest out of the 49 seasons since the ABA merger in 1976.
In other words, youth is being served this season – and the following group of players is proof positive of it. Specifically, nine players under the age of 25 have dramatically improved their production from their previous seasons. From former lottery picks to undrafted players, we have assembled a list of breakout players who:
• Are under the age of 25\
• Are on pace for at least 2 WAR per 82 games\
• Had under 10 career WAR before 2024-25\
• Never previously had a season of 2.5 WAR\
• Improved their WAR pace (per 82 games) by at least 2.5 wins this season
For each player, I’ll include what has made him so much better this season, and list his most comparable players at the same age according to my similarity index system.
Jump to a section:\
Top-10 picks | First-round picks\
Second-round pick | Undrafted pick
Top-10 picks
Dyson Daniels
Age: 21 | SG, Atlanta Hawks
Also known as the “Great Barrier Thief,” Daniels’ improvement this season has been nothing short of startling.
The No. 8 pick in the 2022 draft already made a huge leap in estimated RAPTOR last season (from -3.2 to +0.1) as a member of the Pelicans, but he has gotten far better again (rising to +1.4) with the Hawks at age 21 this season as a starter at the 2 spot. Not only is Daniels scoring a career-high 13.1 PPG, but, with a plus-2.5 estimated RAPTOR specifically on defense, he has established himself as one of the NBA’s best wing defenders.
Key stat: Daniels is incredibly versatile and active at the defensive end. He leads the NBA in steals per game (3.0) and ranks third in deflections per 36 minutes.
Similar metrics at the same age: Clyde Drexler, 1983-84; Scottie Pippen, 1987-88; Jalen Suggs, 2022-23
Cade Cunningham
Age: 23 | PG, Detroit Pistons
Between his early struggles with efficiency and the leg injury that cost him most of his second NBA season in 2022-23, Cunningham has had a delayed path to statistical stardom despite being the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft. But he showed signs of life with last season’s scoring improvement to 22.7 points per game, and he has gotten better at both ends of the court in 2024-25. Cunningham still has work to do on defense, and his TS% remains below the league average – inherently limited by his low free throw rate and even lower shot quality. However, he is averaging 24 points and nearly 10 assists per game, a testament to how far Cunningham has come as a lead ball handler at this level.
Key stat: Between scoring 24.0 PPG and contributing 25.3 additional PPG through his assists, Cunningham’s points responsible tally (49.3 PPG) ranks sixth among qualified NBA players.
NBA Leaders - Points Responsible For
The top 2024-25 NBA leaders in Points Responsible For, combining scoring and points per assists.
| Player | Team | GP | PPG | Ast.PPG | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Nikola Jokic | DEN | 23 | 30.9 | 25.9 | 56.8 |
| 2. Trae Young | ATL | 27 | 21.6 | 30.0 | 51.6 |
| 3. LaMelo Ball | CHA | 20 | 30.4 | 19.5 | 49.9 |
| 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 23 | 32.7 | 16.9 | 49.6 |
| 5. Luka Doncic | DAL | 20 | 28.9 | 20.6 | 49.5 |
| 6. Cade Cunningham | DET | 25 | 24.0 | 25.3 | 49.3 |
| 7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 27 | 30.3 | 16.5 | 46.8 |
| 8. Damian Lillard | MIL | 22 | 25.7 | 19.5 | 45.2 |
| 9. LeBron James | LAL | 26 | 23.0 | 22.0 | 45.0 |
| 10. Jalen Brunson | NYK | 28 | 25.1 | 19.2 | 44.3 |
| Note: Minimum of 10 games | |||||
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
Similar metrics at the same age: Juwan Howard, 1995-96; Brandon Ingram, 2021-22; Paolo Banchero, 2023-24
Jeremy Sochan
Age: 21 | PF, San Antonio Spurs
Figuring out how best to deploy a player of Sochan’s talents had initially been a struggle for Spurs coaches. They tried using his versatile, 6-foot-8 skill set at point forward last season next to another unique talent, then-rookie Victor Wembanyama, but the results were far from successful. San Antonio was markedly worse with Sochan on the court, especially when he played with Wembanyama (-3.8 net rating). This season, though, Sochan (the No. 9 pick in the 2022 draft) has been far more efficient and effective when healthy, raising his estimated RAPTOR from minus-3.0 to plus-1.0.
Key stat: Sochan is cutting down on wasted possessions this season. His turnover rate is down from 14.3% to 12.8%, and his share of shots from the midrange has dipped from 38% to 32%.
Similar metrics at the same age: Greg Monroe, 2012-13 and 2013-14; Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 2017-18
First-round picks outside the top 10
Ochai Agbaji
Age: 24 | SG, Toronto Raptors
Few players in the NBA have experienced more statistical ups and downs in the calendar year of 2024 than Agbaji. The 2022 No. 14 pick out of Kansas was a member of the Utah Jazz until a deadline trade sent him to Toronto in February. He finished as one of the lowest-performing players of the 2023-24 season, with an ugly 45.3 true shooting percentage (TS%) and a minus-5.2 estimated RAPTOR.
But with an offseason to adjust to his new team and coach Darko Rajakovic’s system, Agbaji has been a radically more efficient version of himself, with an improved 63.1 TS%, 30th best in the league, while boosting his estimated RAPTOR at both ends of the court. In particular, Agbaji has one of the league’s most improved 3-point percentages, going from 29.4% a season ago to a scorching 44.4% this season.
Key stat: Last season, 98% of NBA players had a better TS% than Agbaji. This season, he has turned the tables – his mark is better than those of 86% of all active NBA players.
Similar metrics at the same age: Cam Johnson, 2019-20; Jake Layman, 2018-19; Aaron Nesmith, 2023-24
Christian Braun
Age: 23 | SG, Denver Nuggets
Jokić’s supporting cast has caught flak this season for not helping Denver win more games, despite another all-time season by its top star. But don’t blame Braun – the third-year veteran has gone from a pleasant rookie surprise (No. 21 pick from the 2022 draft) in the 2023 NBA Finals to a starter and one of the Nuggets’ most important players. On offense, he’s their leading transition scorer and a 38% spot-up shooter from beyond the arc. And on defense, he has helped limit opponents to scoring 10.8 points less per 100 possessions while he’s on the court versus off.
Braun isn’t precisely a younger version of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Bruce Brown, but he brings a similar mix of efficient two-way play to what the Nuggets previously got on the wing during an earlier, championship-winning incarnation of the club.
Key stat: Braun has been in four of Denver’s five most efficient five-man lineups this season, as well as 10 of the Nuggets’ 14 lineups with a positive scoring differential.
Similar metrics at the same age: Jimmy Butler, 2012-13; Aaron Wiggins, 2023-24; Ed Pinckney, 1988-89
Gradey Dick
Age: 21 | SG, Toronto Raptors
Toronto, though near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, is well-represented on this list of young breakouts, between Agbaji and Dick. In Dick’s case, his place on this list stems from elevating his game from being one of the league’s worst players (-5.2 estimated RAPTOR) to essentially league average. With a much greater offensive workload in his second NBA season (13th pick in the 2023 draft), Dick is attacking the rim more effectively, drawing more fouls and producing more points per 100 possessions (up from 105 to 111).
Key stat: Dick has really come into his own as a scorer this season, averaging 18.3 PPG – a 10-point improvement from 2023-24.
Similar metrics at the same age: Jeff Malone, 1984-85; DeMar DeRozan, 2012-13 and 2011-12
Jake LaRavia
Age: 23 | PF, Memphis Grizzlies
With 2023-24 All-Rookie pick GG Jackson II out with an injury to begin the season, LaRavia has made the most of his opportunity in the same role as a combo forward for the Grizzlies. The 2022 No. 19 pick is producing 120 points per 100 possessions on offense with a respectable (for a big) 18.2% assist rate. On defense, he’s right at home playing on the league’s fourth-ranked team by defensive rating alongside Jaren Jackson Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr. and Brandon Clarke.
Key stat: Among Memphis regulars, only Clarke (+15.6) has been on the court for a higher net rating than LaRavia (+13.7).
Similar metrics at the same age: Josh McRoberts, 2010-11; Kwame Brown, 2006-07; Grant Long, 1990-91
Second-round pick
Brandon Boston
Age: 23 | SG, New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans has been an absolute mess this season, losing more points of Elo rating since the preseason than any other team. Boston, however, has been a bright spot. The fourth-year wing leads the team in steals; he ranks second in minutes, third in rebounds and assists, and fourth in points; and he has the second-best on-versus-off plus/minus (+6.8) of any qualified Pelican.
Drafted 51st in the 2021 draft, Boston has always been intriguing because he has scoring potential – his career usage rate before 2024-25 was nearly 24% – but was horribly inefficient (98 points per 100 possessions). This season, his usage (19.7%) is back near league-average level, but at a more efficient pace, with him averaging 108 points per 100 possessions.
Key stat: Boston’s minus-7.4 estimated RAPTOR last season ranked fourth worst among all players with at least 300 minutes. This season, he is slightly above league average at plus-0.2.
Similar metrics at the same age: Winston Garland, 1988-89; Franklin Edwards, 1982-83; Bryant Stith, 1995-96
Undrafted pick
Julian Champagnie
Age: 23 | SF, San Antonio Spurs
Unlike some on this list who were picked early, Champagnie went undrafted in 2022 and has had to fight his way out of the G League and into consistent NBA minutes. At first, he did that through his defense, which rated as a plus-0.5 in estimated RAPTOR last season thanks to block and steal rates both in excess of 1.5%. But this season, Champagnie has also become more efficient on offense – he has a higher usage rate (now up to 16.8%), has a far better shooting percentage on 2-pointers and is hitting about 35% of his 3s. Champagnie still profiles as a 3-and-D wing who does most of his damage on catch-and-shoot 3s, but every team needs that archetype to win.
Key stat: Opponents shoot for a lower FG percentage at every range when guarded by Champagnie.
Similar metrics at the same age: Terrence Ross, 2013-14; Martell Webster, 2009-10; Cam Johnson, 2020-21
By Neil Paine | ESPN, via ESPN