By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-11-25 22:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
骑士和勇士能否继续保持在各自联盟的榜首？
在长时间的休整之后，《NBA动态》(Around the NBA) 回归了！
为了避免小样本带来的误判，在本赛季的头几周之后再撰写本系列的第一篇文章感觉是正确的。虽然赛季才刚刚开始一个月，但现在已经有足够的数据来辨别哪些是真实的，哪些不是。
因此，事不宜迟，让我们来分析一下骑士和勇士的火热开局。
骑士17胜1负，这不再是2016年
如果有人认为在勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)再次离开仅仅六年后，克利夫兰就会成为一支争冠球队，那么他们和“国王”本人一样在说谎。
然而，骑士赛季初15连胜与联盟历史上第二长的开季连胜纪录持平，而且他们的表现就像真正的冠军争夺者。更重要的是，这与他们去年取得的22胜4负的战绩不同，因为他们是在四大核心完整的情况下做到的。
有趣的是，四大核心同时在场时，克利夫兰目前的+2.9的净效率值与去年的+2.7的净效率值基本一致。简而言之，这四人的组合仍然不像球迷们预期的那样天衣无缝，但其他二人组的表现却令人惊喜。
肯尼·阿特金森(Kenny Atkinson)像个疯狂的科学家一样进行了实验，他没有像往常那样将达柳斯·加兰(Darius Garland)与埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)搭档，将多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)与贾莱特·艾伦(Jarrett Allen)搭档。实际上，米切尔-莫布里和加兰-艾伦的组合比上述组合共同上场的时间更多，而且取得了很大的成功：米切尔和莫布里一起的净效率值高达+20.8，而加兰和艾伦的净效率值则更稳定，为+9.3。
加兰和艾伦的成功并不令人意外，因为除了去年加兰(Darius Garland)受到伤病困扰之外，这对组合历来都占据统治地位。然而，真正的新变化是莫布里(Evan Mobley)在进攻端的侵略性——无论他与谁一起上场，这一点都显而易见。
首先，莫布里(Evan Mobley)作为持球人每场比赛的挡拆次数是去年的四倍。由于他（仍然）有限的投篮能力，这减轻了球场空间的问题，而且由于他的传球能力，防守者仍然需要防守他。下面的例子可以说明这一点，莫布里执行了一个反向掩护，让加兰得到了一个空位上篮的机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年11月24日
由于另一个没有投篮能力的艾伦(Jarrett Allen)也在场上，阿特金森(Kenny Atkinson)巧妙地设计了这个战术，看起来加兰会通过掩护接球。这迫使艾伦的防守者上前一步，即使他没有投篮威胁，这也使得加兰拒绝掩护后油漆区无人防守。
让莫布里(Evan Mobley)更多地控球也帮助了他的突破能力。他今年场均突破7.6次（比4.7次有所增加），而且莫布里增加的力量帮助他更容易地到达篮筐。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年11月24日
随着一切都同时奏效，骑士目前124.5的进攻效率排名第一，比去年排名第18位时高出惊人的9.2分。考虑到他们41.8%的三分球命中率，这个数字是不可持续的（自2019年以来只有两支球队的命中率超过了40%，而且都出现在古怪的、因疫情缩短的2020-21赛季），但他们有可能保持在前五名左右。
再加上一个真正排名前十的防守，这些数字表明克利夫兰是一个真正的竞争者，有可能以常规赛最佳战绩结束赛季。就我个人而言，我仍然不看好他们的机会，因为他们缺乏一个MVP级别的球员，而且四大核心的组合仍然不稳定，但毫无疑问，骑士的上限比大多数人预期的要高。
只有时间才能证明他们是否真的有能力再次捧起总冠军奖杯。
金州勇士是联盟新的“僵尸”吗？
不到一年前，我“大胆地”宣称勇士王朝已经结束。好吧，我猜他们知道了这件事，并决定证明我（偏偏是我）错了。他们能否保持现在的水平并继续位居西部榜首？嗯，有好消息也有坏消息。
在进攻方面，金州勇士目前在联盟排名第13位，他们114.3的进攻效率低于去年排名第10位时的117.8。令人印象深刻的是，即使斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)场均只得到22分，他们仍然设法保持在联盟上半区。不过，别搞错了：库里仍然和以往一样出色，他得分下降只是因为他每场比赛的出手次数比去年少了四次。
由于新获得的阵容深度，勇士队可以承受库里得分下降，而且由于巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield)的加入，即使库里不在场上，他们也能继续打出同样的进攻风格。看看下面的比赛，希尔德在大个子球员的掩护下空切三分出手。听起来熟悉吗？
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2024年11月24日
金州勇士队也曾经为克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)打过这样的战术，但希尔德(Buddy Hield)比这位前水花兄弟更适合，因为他比年龄渐长的克莱更快更灵活。希尔德也是一个更好的控球手，这为勇士队的进攻增加了另一个威胁。
与克利夫兰类似，金州勇士的许多大个子球员也没有投篮能力，但他们都是优秀的传球手和空切手。在同一个片段中，凯尔·安德森(Kyle Anderson)是控球手，凯文·卢尼(Kevon Looney)设置掩护。杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)知道卢尼没有投篮威胁，所以他留在油漆区，但这让希尔德得到了一个空位出手的机会。
具有讽刺意味的是，即使克莱离开了，这支勇士队也更像他们的“众志成城”时期。他们目前场均传球332.8次——联盟最多——而且由于他们的球的转移，他们似乎每次进攻都能创造出好的投篮机会。当然，库里仍然是关键，但为他保留体力以应对关键时刻（比如克莱的回归之战）意味着金州勇士的进攻是可持续的，并且在需要的时候可以达到更高的水平。
不幸的是，他们的防守更令人担忧。勇士队上赛季的防守效率为115.6，排名第15位，今年仅提升到106.9（排名第3位）。考虑到金州勇士在休赛期增加的球员中，除了德安东尼·梅尔顿(De’Anthony Melton)（他刚刚赛季报销）之外，没有人能在防守端真正有所作为，这令人惊讶。
因此，区别在于对手的三分球命中率。对手目前的三分球命中率只有31.2%，勇士队和排名第二的快船队（34.2%）之间的差距与快船队和排名第20位的布鲁克林队（37.2%）之间的差距相同。从历史上看，这项数据是防守方几乎无法控制的，近年来对手三分球命中率最低的球队，对手的三分球命中率仍然超过34%。
金州勇士也让对手投出了大量的三分球：39.7%的对手投篮来自三分线外（联盟中最高的10个数据之一），所以当他们的运气用完时，防守可能会崩溃。尽管如此，勇士队也值得称赞，因为他们不允许对手在篮筐附近出手太多——28.6%的对手投篮来自距离篮筐四英尺以内，这是联盟第二低的数据。
因此，虽然勇士队的防守不会继续如此出色，但他们确实有机会保持在前十名，至少在联盟的上半区。拥有一个高于平均水平的进攻应该能让金州勇士保持季后赛的席位，但他们在西部榜首的位置可能不会持续太久。
本周，请阅读埃里克·弗里茨(Eric Fritts) (Eric.Fritts) 关于文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)投三分的文章！这个话题引发了很多讨论，埃里克很好地解释了文班投这么多三分球背后的原因。
感谢阅读！
所有统计数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: Cleveland’s historic start and Golden State’s revival
Around the NBA: Cleveland’s historic start and Golden State’s revival
Can the Cavs and Warriors stay at the top of their respective conferences?
After a long hiatus, Around the NBA is back!
It felt right to wait a few weeks before writing the first edition of the series this season to avoid small sample-size theatre. We’re still only a month in, but there’s now enough data to discern between what’s real and what isn’t.
So, without further ado, let’s analyze the hot starts of the Cavs and Warriors.
The Cavs are 17-1, and it’s no longer 2016
If anyone thought that Cleveland would become a contender just six years after another LeBron departure, then they’re as big of a liar as the King himself.
Yet, the Cavs’ 15-0 start to the season is tied for the second-longest win streak to begin a year in league history, and they’re playing like legitimate title contenders. More importantly, this feels different than the 22-4 run they went on last year because they’ve done it with their Big Four intact.
Interestingly, Cleveland’s current +2.9 net rating with all four playing is right in line with their +2.7 mark last year. In short, the fit of those four still isn’t as seamless as fans might expect, but it’s their other duos that have pleasantly surprised.
Instead of pairing Darius Garland with Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell with Jarrett Allen as usual, Kenny Atkinson has experimented like a mad scientist. The Mitchell-Mobley and Garland-Allen combos have actually shared the court more than the aforementioned pairs, and to much success: Mitchell and Mobley have a whopping +20.8 net rating together, while Garland and Allen have a more sustainable figure of +9.3.
Garland and Allen’s success isn’t surprising, as the duo has historically been dominant outside of last year when Garland struggled with injuries. What has been new, though, is Mobley’s aggression on offense — something that has been evident regardless of who he shares the court with.
For starters, Mobley is running four times as many pick and rolls as the ballhandler per game as he did last year. Due to his (still) limited shooting, this mitigates the floor spacing issue, and defenders still need to guard him due to his passing ability. An example can be seen below, where Mobley runs an inverted set that gives Garland an open layup.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) November 24, 2024
With another non-shooter in Allen also on the floor, Atkinson cleverly set up the play to look like Garland would receive the ball off of a screen. This forced Allen’s defender to step up even though he’s not a shooting threat, which left the paint undefended after Garland rejected the screen.
Putting the ball more in Mobley’s hands has helped his driving game, too. He’s averaging 7.6 drives per game this year (an increase from 4.7), and Mobley’s added strength helps him get to the rim with more ease.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) November 24, 2024
With everything clicking simultaneously, the Cavs’ current 124.5 offensive rating ranks first and is a ludicrous 9.2 points better than last year when they were 18th. That number isn’t sustainable given their 41.8% shooting from deep (only two teams since 2019 have cracked 40%, and both came in the wacky COVID-shortened 2020-21 season), but it’s possible for them to remain around the top five.
Pair that with a legitimate top-10 defense and the numbers suggest that Cleveland is a bonafide contender that could finish as the best regular season team. Personally, I’m still bearish on their chances since they lack an MVP-calibre player and the fit of the Big Four remains wonky, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs’ ceiling is higher than most anticipated.
Only time will tell if they’re truly capable of bringing home another championship.
Is Golden State the new zombies of the league?
Less than a year ago, I “boldly” pronounced that the Warriors dynasty was dead. Well, I guess they got wind of that and decided to prove me (of all people) wrong. Can they sustain their level and stay atop the West? Well, there are both good and bad news.
Offensively, Golden State currently sits 13th league-wide, and their 114.3 offensive rating is lower than the 117.8 they averaged last year when they finished 10th. Impressively, they’ve managed to remain in the top half of the league even with Steph averaging just 22 points per game. Don’t get it twisted, though: Wardell remains as beautiful as ever, and his decrease in scoring is simply due to him shooting four fewer times per game than last year.
The Warriors can afford that due to their newfound depth, and they’re able to continue playing the same brand of offense even with Steph on the bench because of Buddy Hield’s addition. Just take a look at the play below, where Hield comes off a down screen set by a big for an open three. Sound familiar?
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) November 24, 2024
Golden State used to run this for Klay Thompson too, but Hield’s fit has been even better than the former Splash Brother since he’s quicker and more agile than the aging Klay. Hield is also a much better ballhandler, which adds another threat to the Warriors offense.
Similar to Cleveland, many of Golden State’s bigs are also non-shooters, but they’re all good passers and cutters. In the same clip, Kyle Anderson is the ballhandler with Kevon Looney setting the screen. Jayson Tatum knows that Looney isn’t a shooting threat so he stays in the paint, but that allows Hield to get off an open shot.
Ironically, this Warriors team plays a lot more like their “Strength in Numbers” squad even with Klay gone. They’re currently averaging 332.8 passes made per game — the most league-wide — and they seem to create good shots on every possession due to their ball movement. Of course, Steph is still the lynchpin, but preserving his legs for important moments (like Klay’s homecoming) means that this Golden State offense is sustainable, and could hit an even higher gear if need be.
Unfortunately, their defense is more questionable. The Warriors finished 15th last season with a 115.6 defensive rating, which has improved to just 106.9 (3rd) this year. That’s surprising considering none of Golden State’s offseason additions really move the needle in their own end — except De’Anthony Melton, who just suffered a season-ending injury.
The difference, then, all comes down to opponent three-point shooting. Opposing teams are currently converting just 31.2% from deep, and the difference between the Warriors and #2 ranked Clippers (34.2%) is the same as the Clippers and #20 ranked Brooklyn (37.2%). This stat has historically been something that defenses have very little control over, and the teams that have finished with the lowest opponent three-point percentage in recent years have still finished with over 34% of opposing threes being converted.
Golden State also concedes a ton of long-range attempts: 39.7% of opponent shots have been from deep (one of the 10 highest marks in the league), so the floodgates could open when their luck runs out. Still, the Warriors also deserve credit since they don’t allow many shots around the rim — 28.6% of opponent shots have come within four feet of the basket, which is the second-lowest mark league-wide.
So while the Warriors’ defense won’t continue to be this stingy, they do have a shot at staying in the top 10, and at least in the top half of the league. Having an above-average offense to boot should keep Golden State in position to make the playoffs, but their place atop the West likely won’t last much longer.
This week, please check out Eric Fritts’ article on Wemby shooting threes! That topic has generated plenty of discourse, and Eric does a great job of explaining the rationale behind Wemby shooting so many threes.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock