By Eric.Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-11-20 04:11:26
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
文班亚马的长距离出手曾饱受诟病，直到他开始命中。这能否在多个层面上释放他的进攻潜力？
在2024-2025赛季的初期，文班亚马场均出手8.6次三分球，比他新秀赛季场均5.5次多了三次。在本赛季的前九场比赛中，几乎所有人都对此提出了质疑，因为他的三分命中率只有22.6%。普遍的批评认为他应该更多地在低位背身单打，获得更多在油漆区出手的机会。
然而，在第10、11和12场比赛中，一切都发生了变化。文班并没有被全国性的批评吓倒。事实上，他增加了远距离出手的次数，在这三场比赛中，他的场均三分出手次数达到了12.3次，而且理由充分。在对阵犹他爵士、萨克拉门托国王和华盛顿奇才的这三场比赛中，他的三分命中率翻了一倍多，达到了54.1%。
这不仅向全世界展示了为什么一个7尺4寸的中锋不会停止投三分，也引发了人们对他的投篮选择以及未来发展方向的疑问（或对之前的疑问提出了质疑）。
投篮选择
根据cleaningtheglass.com的数据，在13场比赛中，文班在每100次出手中，有31次来自篮下，24次来自中距离，45次来自三分线外。纵观全联盟的三分出手次数，他以112次出手排名第16位，并且是前50名中唯一的中锋。即使在这个三分球盛行的时代，像文班这样身高和位置的球员投这么多三分球也是不寻常的。
但对于文班来说，什么事情才算“寻常”呢？
他的新秀赛季在投篮选择上更加均衡。在每100次出手中，他有37次来自篮下，32次来自中距离，30次来自三分线外。简单来说，他今年所做的就是将相当一部分中距离出手以及一些篮下出手转移到了三分线外。
当然，并非所有投篮机会的价值都是相同的，因此上述解释过于简化，所以有必要更深入地研究他在各个区域的投篮命中率，而不仅仅是三分球，并分析从中距离到远距离的重新分配对他来说是如何进行的。
目前，文班的中距离命中率为36%，三分命中率为34%。然而，就有效命中率而言，他的三分球相当于51%的命中率，因为它考虑了三分球的额外价值。用一些中距离出手换取三分球出手是一个合乎逻辑的进步。
这应该不足为奇，我们都知道在当今时代，三分球比大多数中距离出手更有价值。整个联盟的中距离出手并不多，而文班的每100回合24次出手大约处于联盟的中游水平。但比赛中最有效的得分方式仍然是扣篮，因此批评他为了三分球而牺牲篮下出手的观点也有一定的道理。毕竟，他是场上最高的球员。理论上，他不应该牺牲篮下出手的机会。
他如何获得更多篮下出手的机会？
为什么不让他更多地背身单打呢？简而言之，是因为他目前还不擅长。虽然文班很高，但他还没有找到作为低位球员的效率，本赛季他场均背身单打2.3次，每次得分为0.97分，上赛季场均背身单打3.3次，每次得分为0.89分。普遍的共识是，文班目前还不够强壮，无法压制其他大个子。他不会像他的前辈那样，通过在低位持球强攻来高效地到达篮下。马刺队在这个阶段根本不会把他当作一个内线球员来使用。
文班亚马在篮下的效率从外线切入比从内线往外打的效果更好。上赛季，他的篮下命中率为70%，根据cleaningtheglass.com的数据，这在所有大个子球员中排在第55个百分位。本赛季，他的篮下命中率为82%，排在第95个百分位。
诚然，他的三分球出手次数和篮下命中率之间的正相关性来自一个小样本。很难确定他的篮下效率是否可以直接归因于他的三分球出手，但看起来他以远距离投篮为主的投篮选择在短期内不会改变。他最近的三分球爆发也证明了这一点。鉴于此，让他先在外线站稳脚跟，然后让他向篮筐移动，而不是尝试效率较低的背身单打，并探索这一趋势，这是有道理的。
假设他的外线投篮是他篮下表现的一个因素，那么这种动态的关键就变成了他能保持什么样的投篮命中率。在令人难以置信的三连胜之后，他的投篮状态在对阵湖人的比赛中回落，13投4中。显然，他不可能一直保持54%的三分命中率，但他能否至少保持在一个不错的水平？
为此，我们可以看看比赛中唯一不变的部分，罚球。目前，文班亚马的罚球命中率为87.2%，远高于上赛季仍然不错的79.6%。现在还为时尚早，但如果他能保持接近90%的罚球命中率，那么期待他至少达到联盟平均36%的三分命中率并非不合理。
高于平均水平当然是理想的，他已经证明他可以在多场比赛中保持火热手感，但即使是平均水平也足以让防守方重视他。他们会更不愿意给他这些出手的机会，这只会带来更高的效率，因为它会为其他进攻球员打开空间，并让他有更多机会攻击补防球员。
总的来说，马刺队在文班亚马的三分球出手上的大力投入最终可能会导致他在篮下的出手次数增加。对于一个7尺4寸的球员来说，这不是一个传统的方法，但如果批评者希望文班亚马更多地冲击篮筐，这就是实现它的方法。他还没有获得更多篮下出手的机会，但他到达篮下时的效率很高。
他被称为“外星人”是有原因的。
文班亚马是一个异于常人的球员。如果他是其他任何一个7尺长人，他可能都会在低位训练，努力变得更强壮。他仍然可能这样做。但他不是其他任何一个7尺长人。他充满活力的运动能力，对比赛的理解，以及他的身高，这些共同构成了维克多·文班亚马。在试图弄清楚他的比赛将如何发展时，最好放弃任何先入为主的期望。
点击查看原文：How Victor Wembanyama’s heavy shot diet of threes can help the rest of his game
How Victor Wembanyama’s heavy shot diet of threes can help the rest of his game
Victor Wembanyama has been criticized for his long range attempts, until they started going in. Could they be unleashing his offense on more levels than one?
So far in this young 2024-2025 season, Victor Wembanyama is averaging 8.6 three-point attempts per game: three shots more than his rookie season average of 5.5. This was met with near-universal questioning for the first nine games of this year, as he was only making them at 22.6 percent. The common rebuke was that he should get down low in the post and get more shots in the paint.
Then, everything changed in games 10, 11, and 12. Wembanyama was not deterred by national criticism. In fact, he bombed away from long range, bumping the attempts up to 12.3 per game over that stretch, and with good reason. Over those three games against Utah, Sacramento, and Washington, he more than doubled his long-range average, sinking them at 54.1 percent.
This not only showed the world why a 7’4"center was not going to stop putting up threes but also raised questions (or questioned previous questions) about what his shot diet consisted of and what it’s going to look like going forward.
Shot Diet
In thirteen games, Webmanyama has taken 31 per 100 shots at the rim, 24 in the mid-range, and 45 from three, according to cleaningtheglass.com. Looking at three-point attempts league-wide, he ranks 16th with 112 total attempts and the only center in the top fifty. Even in this three-point era, a player of Wembanyama’s position and size taking this many threes is not normal.
But what about Victor Wembanyama has ever been “normal?”
His rookie season saw a more even split between his shot attempts. He took 37 per 100 at the rim, 32 in the mid-range, and 30 from three. What he’s done this year, in an oversimplified explanation, is take a decent chunk of the mid-range as well as some rim attempts and shift them beyond the arc.
Now, not all field goal attempts are created equal, hence the caveat of oversimplification, therefore it’s worth looking a little deeper at his field goal percentage from all areas, not just three, and analyzing how that reallocation from the mid to long-range has gone for him.
Currently, Webmanyama is averaging 36 percent from mid-range and 34 percent from three. In terms of effective field goal percentage though, his three-pointer is worth 51 percent, as it takes into account the extra value of the shot. Exchanging some mid-range attempts for three-pointers is a logical progression.
That should come as no surprise, we know in this day and age that three-pointers are more valuable than most mid-range attempts. The league as a whole doesn’t take a lot of them, and with his 24 attempts per 100, Wembanyama sits about in the middle of the league. But the most efficient shot in the game is still a dunk, and the criticism of him sacrificing shots at the rim for three-pointers holds more validity. After all, he is the tallest player on the court. In theory, he shouldn’t be sacrificing shots at the rim.
How does he get more shots at the rim?
Why not post him up more? The short answer is, he isn’t so good at it yet. While Wembanyama is tall, he hasn’t found efficiency as a low post player, averaging 0.97 points per possession on 2.3 post-ups per game this season and 0.89 on 3.3 last season. The consensus here is that Wembanyama isn’t strong enough yet to overpower other bigs. He won’t be nearly as efficient getting to the rim pounding the ball in the low post, the way his forefathers did. The Spurs simply aren’t going to play him as an interior player at this point in his career.
Wembanyama’s at-the-rim efficiency works better going from the outside-in, instead of the inside-out. Last season, he shot 70 percent at the rim, which was in the 55th percentile among bigs per cleaningtheglass.com. This season, he’s at 82 percent, 95th percentile among bigs.
Granted, the positive correlation between his three-point attempts and field goal percentage at the rim does come from a small sample size. It’s hard to say for certain if his efficiency at the rim can be directly attributed to his three-point attempts, but it doesn’t seem like his shot diet with a healthy portion from the long-range is going to change anytime soon. His recent three-point explosion only supports that. Given that, it makes sense to establish him on the outside and let him work towards the hoop instead of trying to get him post-ups that aren’t as efficient and explore the trend.
Assuming his perimeter shooting is a factor in his at-the-rim performance, the fulcrum of this dynamic then becomes a question of what kind of shooting percentages he can maintain. After the incredible three-game run his shooting fell back down to earth with a 4 for 13 night against the Lakers. Obviously, he won’t shoot 54 percent from three all the time, but will he be able to be at least decent?
For this, we can take a look at the only part of the game that doesn’t change, free throw shooting. Right now, Wembanyama is averaging 87.2 percent from the line, considerably better than last season’s still respectable 79.6. It’s early on, but if he can maintain nearly 90 percent on free throws, it’s not unreasonable to expect at minimum the league average of 36 percent from three.
Better than average would be ideal, and he’s already proven he can get hot for multiple-game stretches, but even average is enough to make to defenses respect him. They’ll be more reluctant to give him those attempts, which will only give way to more efficiency as it will open up floor spacing for the rest of the offense and allow him more chances to attack closeouts.
Overall, the Spurs betting heavy on Wembanyama’s three-point attempts may end up leading to more attempts at the hoop when all is said and done. It’s not a conventional approach for a 7’4’’ player, but if critics want Wembanyama to get to the basket more, this is how it’s going to be done. He isn’t getting more rim attempts yet, but he is efficient when he gets there.
There’s a reason he’s called an alien.
Wembanyama is an anomalous player. If he were any other 7-footer, he probably would be working out in the post, trying to get stronger. And he still might. But he isn’t any other 7-footer. His dynamic athleticism combined with his feel for the game, along with that size are what make him Victor Wembanyama. When trying to figure out how his game will develop, it’s best to drop any preconceived expectations.
By Eric.Fritts, via Pounding The Rock