By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Jacob Douglas, J.R. Wilco, Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2024-10-23 22:30:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
PtR 团队讨论了球队和球员是否会像预期那样出色，并预测了 NBA 总冠军。
博彩市场将马刺队的胜负线设定为 36.5 胜。你认为他们会超过这个数字并争夺附加赛资格吗？
玛丽莲·杜宾斯基 (Marilyn Dubinski): 我内心乐观的一面想说会超过，但现在很难想象，原因无他，只因西部竞争太激烈。分区第 13 号种子，也就是马刺队胜负线所处的位置，有多少次能达到 36 胜左右？不查资料，我猜很少，可能没有。马刺队绝对有潜力创造惊喜，冲击 40 胜并进入附加赛，但如果我真的要把辛苦赚来的钱押上，我会押低于 36.5 胜。如果他们在东部，那情况就不一样了……
马克·巴灵顿 (Mark Barrington): 我认为马刺队会比上赛季的 22 胜强很多。但也不会强到 那个 程度。克里斯·保罗在教导年轻球员如何打赢球方面会很棒，但他出场时间有限，在场上不会有太大改变。哈里森·巴恩斯必须比季前赛打得更好才能有所作为。我认为马刺队最多可以赢 33 场，这已经是巨大的 50% 的胜场增长。我只是不认为他们会接近附加赛，因为他们的阵容还有很多需要改进的地方。
雅各布·道格拉斯 (Jacob Douglas): 不会。对于一个今年夏天没有太大变化的球队来说，这是一个太大的跳跃。克里斯·保罗、哈里森·巴恩斯和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 提升了球队的实力，但还不足以让他们进入附加赛的讨论范围。马刺队在进攻端仍然需要更多有优势的创造者才能成为一支常胜之师。我认为他们今年会在 30 胜左右。
杰西·戈麦斯 (Jesus Gomez): 就像除了下面这位永远的乐观主义者之外的所有人一样，我对此表示怀疑。马刺队上赛季赢了 22 场比赛。在一个没有多少糟糕球队的赛季，尤其是西部，15 场的增长幅度似乎太大了。看看前 10 场比赛，唯一一支预计会真正糟糕的对手是开拓者队。马刺队有能力击败强队，但尽管增加了几名老将，他们仍然年轻，而且可能仍然不稳定。我认为 30 出头的胜场数似乎更现实，并且仍然代表着朝着正确方向迈出的一步。
J.R. 威尔克 (J.R. Wilco): 只有我一个人这么认为，是吗？好吧，那就这样吧。我来扮演一下无耻的死忠球迷的角色。但我不是在 扮演。我公开表示过，我认为上赛季的球队比他们的战绩要好。因此，如果我们认为克里斯·保罗将稳定他们在关键时刻的进攻（我认为这是上赛季球队最大的问题），并且我们注意到他们上赛季 一半 的比赛都属于关键时刻（在比赛还剩 5 分钟时分差在 5 分以内），那么……那么，我对他们打出一个五五开的赛季不会感到惊讶。现在，我并没有预测他们会打出五五开的战绩，但我至少准备押他们会超过 36.5 胜！
比尔·黄 (Bill Huan): 36.5 胜可能是今年马刺队最疯狂的胜负线了，而我可是文班的最大支持者！他将作为前 10 的球员进入这个赛季，并且可能会以前 5 名结束，但即使这样也不会让马刺队取得 37 胜或更多的胜利。J.R. 说得对，这支球队的表现比他们上赛季的战绩要好，但请记住，西部竞争比以往任何时候都激烈，在我看来，至少有 12 支球队明显更强。考虑到这一点，我认为 32.5 胜的胜负线更合适（请不要把我赶出去，威尔克先生）。
你认为维克多·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 会赢得年度最佳防守球员吗？还有其他马刺球员接近获得奖项吗？
杜宾斯基： 如果他的防守水平和上赛季一样，他就应该获奖。我认为鲁迪·戈贝尔的获奖更多是靠实力，一些投票者无论如何都不能让自己投票给一个防守排名前十垫底的球队的新秀，无论他的个人荣誉如何。如果马刺队的防守至少能排在联盟中游，那么投票给文班就不会有任何犹豫。除了他之外，如果斯蒂芬·卡斯尔有足够的出场时间，他和他那一届的任何人都一样有机会获得最佳新秀，我甚至可以想象凯尔登·约翰逊争夺最佳第六人的情况。如果他做到了，那将对马刺队的胜率有很大提升。
巴灵顿： 如果他保持健康，这是很有可能的。有些球队会派人去对他犯规，并利用身体对抗来抵消他的身高优势。看看马刺队会如何应对将会很有趣。今年马刺队中唯一一个有可能获得个人荣誉的球员是斯蒂芬·卡斯尔，如果波波维奇让他整个赛季都能进入常规轮换阵容，他将有机会角逐最佳新秀。我认为这绝对有可能，因为卡斯尔已经证明了他的比赛在防守端已经为 NBA 做好了准备，而且他的投篮比选秀时预期的要好。还有其他几个新秀会带来激烈的竞争，但这可能会是一场势均力敌的竞争。
道格拉斯： 年度最佳防守球员奖是基于叙事的。我认为上赛季这对文班亚马有利。如果他本赛季发挥出色，马刺队真的很有竞争力，我认为这个奖项就是他的了。我只是不认为 NBA 会把这个奖项颁给一个防守排名前十开外的球员。他将面临来自鲁迪·戈贝尔和巴姆·阿德巴约的激烈竞争。我认为卡斯尔的出场时间不足以赢得最佳新秀。我预计文班亚马本赛季会入选 NBA 最佳阵容和全明星阵容。
戈麦斯： 我认为他会，但这并不容易。文班本赛季将受到更多 scrutiny，这可能会导致投票者过度思考。如果马刺队在防守端有所进步，而其他候选人都没有打出生涯最佳赛季，我认为文班很有机会获得一些荣誉。如果卡斯尔有足够的出场时间，他将有机会获得最佳新秀，但我没有其他人那么相信他会获得获得最佳新秀所需的出场时间和角色。
威尔克： 我认为这个奖项的走向会和上赛季的最佳新秀一样：ESPN 在兜售 ESPN BET 的赌注时，将他加冕为该奖项的 presumptive 热门人选。然后，他们指示他们的一群评论员开始吹捧其他人（或几名球员）胜过他。然后，他们在 ESPN BET 上大量出售反对文班的赌注。然后，在本赛季末，在文班在 ESPN 转播的一场比赛中打出精彩表现后，他们宣布他获胜，同时在 ESPN BET 上大量出售文班的赌注，同时让他们的作家和播音员都同意他是这个媒体奖项的绝对赢家，同时从 ESPN BET 那里赚取更多收入，同时不知何故继续逍遥法外，逍遥法外，逍遥法外。
黄： 他绝对应该是最大热门，尽管我不确定马刺队的防守是否好到足以让他真正获奖。无论如何，我心里毫无疑问文班已经是篮球界最好的防守球员，我认为他也会入选 NBA 最佳阵容二队。
你认为哪两支球队会从各自赛区突围，谁会赢得 NBA 总冠军？
杜宾斯基： 我认为没有人能取代凯尔特人队。尼克斯队在唐斯交易后有所提升，但他们阵容深度不够，而且还有锡伯杜的因素需要考虑。我也不认为 76 人队的球星们能够保持足够的健康来带领他们走那么远。在西部，一切皆有可能。掘金队有约基奇就永远有机会，但他们失去了很多板凳深度。独行侠队去年做到了，今年也很有可能再次做到，但这需要克莱·汤普森的投篮比过去几年更好，而且必须在进攻端完成。在我看来，雷霆队是目前最受欢迎的球队，因为他们是阵容最完整的球队，并且在休赛期做出了一些不错的举动，他们只需要从上赛季的季后赛中吸取教训，克服年轻的因素。
巴灵顿： 凯尔特人队将是卫冕的最大热门。东部至少有六支有竞争力的球队，但凯尔特人队仍然是最强的。很多人预测雷霆队会从西部突围，他们当然有实力做到这一点。我只是认为他们还不够有经验，我认为他们距离总决赛还有一年的时间和一次季后赛的失望。我认为独行侠队在引进克莱·汤普森后已经提升了自己，也许今年我们就能看到卢卡·东契奇以良好的状态开始这个赛季了。我认为我们很有可能会看到 20-24 赛季总决赛的重演，结果也一样。说这话我一点也不高兴，但凯尔特人队似乎很可能会在本赛季末再次举起奖杯。
道格拉斯： 凯尔特人队将在总决赛中战胜雷霆队。他们是 NBA 中实力最强的两支球队。雷霆队弥补了他们的缺陷，而且很难在波士顿的阵容中找到任何缺陷。我喜欢费城队，但我不相信乔尔·恩比德和保罗·乔治能在季后赛中保持健康，更不用说打出高效的表现了。
戈麦斯： 卫冕很难，但除非伤病席卷凯尔特人队，否则我认为没有人能击败东部的凯尔特人队，我并不惊讶地看到他们在这里被一致选中。西部的情况更复杂一些，因为所有的竞争者都至少有一个缺陷。我会选择掘金队，因为他们拥有世界上最好的球员。如果掘金队能进入总决赛，我认为他们能赢得最后的胜利。
威尔克： 只要约基奇还活着，并且正值巅峰，我就无法预测谁能打败他们，除非我亲眼所见。他在奥运会上和他的几个伙伴一起做的事情简直难以用语言形容。塞尔维亚队本来没有资格参加与美国队的比赛，而他差点就带队战胜了美国队。所以对我来说，西部是掘金队，东部还是波士顿队——凯尔特人队会卫冕。唉。
黄： 我要冒昧地说一句，我预测凯尔特人队会战胜雷霆队。谁会想到呢？言归正传，这两支球队应该会是各自赛区的热门球队，他们的火力和阵容深度应该足以让其他球队难以招架。当然，除非约基奇决定从他的“伙伴”中找些人加入掘金队。
点击查看原文：The Spurs should improve but might struggle to meet lofty expectations
The Spurs should improve but might struggle to meet lofty expectations
The PtR crew discusses whether the team and the individuals will be as impressive as expected and gives their predictions for NBA champion.
The betting market has set the Spurs’ over/under at 36.5 wins. Do you think they’ll hit the over and fight for a play-in spot?
Marilyn Dubinski: The optimist in me wants to say the over, but it’s just hard to visualize at this point if for no other reason than the West will be a gauntlet. How often has the 13th seed in a conference, which is where the Spurs’ over/under puts them, had 36-ish wins? Without researching, I’m guessing very few, possibly none. The Spurs definitely have the potential to surprise, push for 40 wins and make the play-in, but if I had to actually put any of my hard-earned money on the line, I’d bet the under. Now if they were in the East, this would be a different discussion…
Mark Barrington: I think the Spurs are going to be a lot better than last year’s 22 win team. But not THAT much better. Chris Paul will be great in teaching the young guys how to play winning basketball, but he’s not going to make that much of a difference on the court in limited minutes. Harrison Barnes is going to have to play a lot better than he did in preseason to move the needle. I think the Spurs could win as much as 33 games, which is a massive 50% increase in wins. I just don’t think they get close to the play-in tournament with a roster that is this much of a work in progress.
Jacob Douglas: No. It’s too big of a jump for a team that didn’t add all that much this summer. Chris Paul, Harrison Barnes, and Stephon Castle provide a talent upgrade, but not one great enough to be in the play-in conversation. The Spurs still need more advantage creators on the offensive end to be a winning team. I have them somewhere around 30 wins this year.
Jesus Gomez: Just like everyone except the eternal optimist below me**,** I doubt it. The Spurs won 22 games last year. A 15-win jump seems like a lot in a season with not many awful teams, especially in the West. Looking at the first 10 games, the only opponent expected to be truly bad is the Trail Blazers. The Spurs have the talent to beat good teams, but they are still young despite adding a couple of veterans and will probably still be inconsistent. I think a win total in the low 30s seems more realistic and would still represent a step in the right direction.
J.R. Wilco: I’m the only one, eh? Ok, then. I’ll play the shameless homer. Only I’m not playing. I’m on record saying that last season’s club was better than their record. So if we figure that Chris Paul will steady their clutch time offense (the biggest problem with the team last year, IMO) and we note the fact that fully half of their games last season qualified as clutch time games (within 5 points with 5 minutes left) then … then, I wouldn’t be surprised at a .500 season. Now, I’m not predicting one either, but I’m at least ready to take the over!
Bill Huan: 36.5 for the Spurs might be the craziest over/under this year, and I’m the biggest Wemby homer out there! He’s going to enter the season as a top 10 player and could finish in the top 5, but even that won’t catapult the Spurs to 37 or more wins. J.R. is right when he says that this team played better than their record showed last year, but keep in mind that the West is deeper than ever and there are 12 teams who are clearly better - in my humble opinion. With that in mind, I believe an over/under of 32.5 is much more appropriate (please don’t banish me, Mr. Wilco).
Do you think Victor Wembanyama will win Defensive Player of the Year? Will any other Spurs get close to getting an award?
Dubinski: If he’s even the same defender as last season, he should win it. I believe Rudy Gobert won on merit more than anything, and some voters simply couldn’t get themselves to vote for a rookie on a bottom 10 defense regardless of his individual accolades. If the Spurs can move into at least the middle of the league in defense, there will be zero hesitance to vote for Wemby, Beyond him, Stephon Castle has as good a shot as anyone in his class at Rookie of the Year if he gets enough playing time, and I could even see a world where Keldon Johnson contends for Sixth Man. If he does, it will be a big boost to the Spurs’ winning chances.
Barrington: If he stays healthy, it’s very likely. Some teams will send guys at him in an attempt to draw fouls and use physical inside play to negate his length. It’ll be interesting to see how the Spurs respond. About the only other Spurs this year who could be in the running for individual honors would be Stephon Castle, who could be in the running for Rookie of the Year if Pop gives him a regular rotation spot for the whole season. I think it’s definitely possible, because Castle has proven that his game is already NBA-ready on defense and his shot is better than expected coming out of the draft. There are several other rookies that would provide stiff competition, but it could be a competitive race.
Douglas: The Defensive Player of the Year award is narrative-based. I think that played in Wembanyama’s favor last season. If he has a major impact season and the Spurs really are competitive, I think the award is his. I just don’t think the NBA can give the award to a player that doesn’t lead a top-10 defense. He’ll face stiff competition from Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo. I don’t think Castle will play enough to win Rookie of the Year. I do expect Wembanyama to make an All-NBA team and the All-Star game this season.
Gomez: I think he will, but it won’t be easy. Wemby will be scrutinized more this season, which could lead to voters overthinking things. If the Spurs show improvement on that end and none of the other candidates has a career year, I think Wemby has a good chance of getting some hardware. Castle could have a shot at Rookie of the Year if he gets the minutes, but I’m not as confident as others that he will get the minutes and role to get it.
Wilco: I see this award going the way last season’s ROY went: ESPN crowns him the presumptive favorite for the award while selling bets on ESPN BET. Then, they instruct a bunch of their talking heads to start touting someone else (or several players) over him. Then they sell lots of bets on ESPN BET against Wemby. Then toward the end of the season, after Wemby does something awesome in one of the games ESPN covers, they declare him the winner, while selling lots more bets on ESPN Bet for Wemby while having their writers and announcers all agree that he’s the hands-down winner of this media-based award while raking in more $ from ESPN BET while somehow continuing to fly under the radar and undetected for the complete and utter racket they are.
Huan: He should definitely be the heavy favorite, although I’m not sure if the Spurs’ defense will be good enough for him to actually win. Either way, there’s no question in my mind that Wemby is already the best defender in all of basketball, and I think he’ll make 2nd team All-NBA too.
Who do you think will come out of each conference and who will win the NBA Championship?
Dubinski: I don’t see anyone usurping the Celtics. The Knicks upgraded a bit with the KAT trade, but they aren’t very deep, and there’s the Thibs factor to consider. I also don’t think the 76ers’ stars are capable of staying healthy long enough to carry them that far. In the West, it’s anybody’s game. The Nuggets will always have a chance with Jokic but have lost a lot of depth. The Mavs made it last year and very well could again, but it will require Klay Thompson to have a better shooting season than he has had in a few years, and it will have to be done on offense. The Thunder are the immediate favorites off the top of my head because they are the most complete team and made some good offseason moves, they just need to learn from last season’s playoffs and overcome the youth factor.
Barrington: The Celtics are going to be the favorites to repeat. There are at least six contending teams in the East, but the Celtics are still the best. A lot of people are picking the Thunder to come out of the West, and they certainly have the talent to do it. I just don’t think they’re experienced enough yet, I think they’re still a year and a playoff disappointment removed from a finals trip. I think that the Mavericks have improved themselves with the addition of Klay Thompson, and maybe this is the year we will see Luka Doncic start the season in basketball shape. I think it’s likely that we’ll see a rematch of the 20-24 finals, with the same result. It gives me no joy to say this, but it seems likely that the Celtics will raise the trophy again at the end of the season.
Douglas: Celtics over Thunder in the finals. They are the two most talented teams in the NBA. OKC fixed their flaws, and it’s hard to even find one on Boston’s roster. I like Philadelphia’s team, but I don’t trust Joel Embiid nor Paul George to be available, let alone effective in the postseason.
Gomez: Repeats are hard, but I don’t see anyone beating Boston in the East unless injuries ravage the Celtics and I’m not surprised to see them get picked unanimously here. The West is trickier because all the contenders have at least one flaw. I’ll go with the Nuggets, because they have the best player in the world. And if Denver gets to the Finals, I think they can win the whole thing.
Wilco: As long as Jokic is alive and in his prime, I can’t predict anyone beating them until I see it with my own eyes. What he did in the Olympics with a few guys from his hood was beyond all superlatives. Serbia had no business being in that game against the USA, and he nearly took them down. So it’s the Nuggets for me in the West, and Boston again from the East — and the Celts to repeat. Ugh.
Huan: I’m going out on a MASSIVE limb here and predicting the Celtics to win over the Thunder. Who saw that coming, huh? Jokes aside, these two teams should be pretty heavily favored in their respective conferences, and their combination of fire power and depth should be too much for other teams to handle. That is, unless Jokic decides to get some people from his “hood” to join the Nuggets, of course.
By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Jacob Douglas, J.R. Wilco, Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock