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- ESPN 工作人员
2024 年 8 月 19 日,美国东部时间上午 8:00
2024-25 NBA 赛季即将到来——只剩下 65 天了!——随着常规赛赛程的公布,新赛季的比赛令人期待。
许多熟悉的面孔出现在了新的地方,其中最引人注目的是神射手克莱·汤普森(Klay Thompson)。在为金州勇士队效力 13 年后,他与卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)和凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)联手,试图再次冲击总决赛。
联盟历史得分王勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)迎来了他创纪录的第 22 个 NBA 赛季,他将与儿子布朗尼·詹姆斯(Bronny James)并肩作战,并希望在经历了两个令人失望的赛季后改变洛杉矶湖人队的命运。
在经历了一个相对平静的休赛期后,联盟中仍然存在着许多问题。波士顿凯尔特人队能否继续他们在东部的统治地位?保罗·乔治(Paul George)能否成为帮助乔尔·恩比德(Joel Embiid)和费城 76 人队取得成功的催化剂?
ESPN 暑期预测小组由多位专家组成,他们将回答 2024-25 赛季 NBA 最重要的问题。(计分方法:第一名得 5 分,第二名得 3 分,第三名得 1 分。)
以下是结果:
注:我们对 2024-25 赛季 NBA 的暑期预测将于周二继续进行,届时将预测所有主要奖项。
球队转折:哪些球队将实现重大飞跃?
我们的“球队转折”投票重点关注那些最有可能在排名中大幅提升的球队。在经历了一个饱受伤病困扰的赛季后,随着贾·莫兰特(Ja Morant)的回归和新秀中锋扎克·埃迪(Zach Edey)的加入,孟菲斯灰熊队准备好在竞争激烈的西部联盟中重返争冠行列。
紧随其后的是由卫冕最佳新秀维克多·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)领衔的圣安东尼奥马刺队。在带领法国队在 2024 年巴黎奥运会上取得成功,并在金牌争夺战中对阵美国队后,文班亚马进入第二个赛季时就已经像一名老将了。现在,随着经验丰富的克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)和新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)的加入,马刺队有机会在本赛季实现巨大飞跃。
1. 孟菲斯灰熊队: 63 分(42% 的第一名选票)
2. 圣安东尼奥马刺队: 48 分
3. 金州勇士队: 18 分
4. 菲尼克斯太阳队: 14 分
并列第 5. 密尔沃基雄鹿队: 9 分
并列第 5. 费城 76 人队: 9 分
并列第 7. 休斯顿火箭队: 6 分
并列第 7. 奥兰多魔术队: 6 分
并列第 7. 萨克拉门托国王队: 6 分
10. 布鲁克林篮网队: 5 分
并列第 11. 夏洛特黄蜂队: 1 分
并列第 11. 迈阿密热火队: 1 分
并列第 11. 新奥尔良鹈鹕队: 1 分
并列第 11. 波特兰开拓者队: 1 分
球队混乱:哪支球队本赛季会一落千丈?
“球队混乱”投票的重点在于球场、教练组和管理层的动荡。
本赛季的“赢家”是洛杉矶湖人队,他们拥有第一次担任教练的 JJ·雷迪克(JJ Redick),一位即将年满 40 岁的超级巨星勒布朗·詹姆斯,以及在上赛季季后赛首轮出局后球场上出现的许多问题。
紧随湖人队之后的是他们的同城对手洛杉矶快船队,他们在保罗·乔治离开前往费城后,将在全新的 Intuit 球馆开启征程,但他们少了一位全明星球员。老鹰队在休赛期交易走了德章泰·默里(Dejounte Murray),并将进攻大权交给了特雷·杨(Trae Young),排名第三,但杨在亚特兰大的未来仍然存疑。
1. 洛杉矶湖人队: 53 分(43% 的第一名选票)
2. 洛杉矶快船队: 25 分
并列第 3. 亚特兰大老鹰队: 19 分
并列第 3. 芝加哥公牛队: 19 分
并列第 5. 丹佛掘金队: 12 分
并列第 5. 密尔沃基雄鹿队: 12 分
7. 迈阿密热火队: 10 分
并列第 8. 金州勇士队: 7 分
并列第 8. 菲尼克斯太阳队: 7 分
10. 达拉斯独行侠队: 6 分
11. 布鲁克林篮网队: 5 分
12. 费城 76 人队: 4 分
并列第 13. 休斯顿火箭队: 3 分
并列第 13. 纽约尼克斯队: 3 分
并列第 13. 华盛顿奇才队: 3 分
哪位球员将首次入选全明星?
在我们最一边倒的投票中,维克多·文班亚马毫无悬念地获得了“首次入选全明星”奖项。这位 20 岁的内线球员刚刚带领法国队在家乡举行的 2024 年奥运会上获得银牌,他已经为自己的第二个 NBA 赛季做好了充分的准备。
文班亚马上赛季场均得到 21.4 分和 10.6 个篮板,现在他将拥有老将克里斯·保罗的帮助,指导他进入职业生涯的下一个阶段。
切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)是文班亚马迄今为止最大的竞争对手,在上赛季获得最佳新秀亚军后,他在本次投票中排名第二。尽管在大多数统计数据上都落后于文班亚马,但霍姆格伦上赛季还是带领俄克拉荷马雷霆队获得了西部第一,他的年轻球队的未来一片光明。
排名第三的是新加盟纽约尼克斯队的米卡尔·布里奇斯(Mikal Bridges)。
1. 维克多·文班亚马,圣安东尼奥马刺队: 101 分(90% 的第一名选票)
2. 切特·霍姆格伦,俄克拉荷马雷霆队: 30 分
3. 米卡尔·布里奇斯,纽约尼克斯队: 20 分
4. 贾马尔·默里(Jamal Murray),丹佛掘金队: 13 分
5. 凯德·坎宁安(Cade Cunningham),底特律活塞队: 9 分
6. 埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley),克利夫兰骑士队: 7 分
7. 巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield),金州勇士队: 3 分
并列第 8. 海梅·哈克斯(Jaime Jaquez Jr.),迈阿密热火队: 1 分
并列第 8. 阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Sengun),休斯顿火箭队: 1 分
哪位球星将在新球队产生最大影响?
休赛期,许多自由球员都找到了新东家,其中包括九届全明星球员保罗·乔治,他将与乔尔·恩比德和泰瑞斯·马克西(Tyrese Maxey)在费城并肩作战。在关于顶薪合同的谈判破裂后,乔治在快船队的五个赛季结束了。乔治仍然是 NBA 中最优秀的侧翼球员之一,他在“对新球队影响最大的球员”评选中排名第一。
米卡尔·布里奇斯在我们的投票中排名第二,他将跨过布鲁克林大桥,与纽约尼克斯队在麦迪逊广场花园并肩作战。在经历了东部半决赛和 50 胜的赛季后,布里奇斯将受益于他周围的众多天才球员,包括杰伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson)、朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)和最近续约的奥比·托平(OG Anunoby)。
防守专家亚历克斯·卡鲁索(Alex Caruso)在我们的投票中排名第三,他为俄克拉荷马这支顶级防守球队增添了老将经验。
共有六名球员进入榜单,这表明 NBA 格局在本赛季可能会发生巨变。
1. 保罗·乔治,费城 76 人队: 68 分(48% 的第一名选票)
2. 米卡尔·布里奇斯,纽约尼克斯队: 40 分
3. 亚历克斯·卡鲁索,俄克拉荷马雷霆队: 31 分
4. 德玛尔·德罗赞(DeMar DeRozan),萨克拉门托国王队: 24 分
5. 克里斯·保罗,圣安东尼奥马刺队: 16 分
6. 克莱·汤普森,达拉斯独行侠队: 9 分
下一个申请交易的超级球星将是……?
自 2016 年以榜眼秀的身份被选中并于 2019 年加入鹈鹕队以来,26 岁的布兰登·英格拉姆(Brandon Ingram)并没有取得他所希望的立竿见影的成功。上赛季,他场均得到 20.8 分、5.7 次助攻和 5.1 个篮板,与 2022-23 赛季相比略有下降。英格拉姆与球队的四年 1.58 亿美元的合同还剩一年。如果他没有得到续约合同,这位曾经的全明星球员可能会开始寻求交易。
芝加哥公牛队的扎克·拉文(Zach LaVine)几个月来一直处于交易猜测的中心,原因是这位全明星球员与球队之间的关系日益紧张。然而,由于拉文的合同,针对他的交易市场从未完全打开,公牛队正准备让这位征战联盟 10 年的老将在今年秋天参加训练营,他在去年 2 月份接受了右脚手术,赛季报销。随着德玛尔·德罗赞的离开和朗佐·鲍尔(Lonzo Ball)回归的不确定性,拉文可能是下一个要求离开芝加哥的球员。
(注:此类别按每票一分计分。)
并列第 1. 布兰登·英格拉姆,新奥尔良鹈鹕队: 5 分
并列第 1. 扎克·拉文,芝加哥公牛队: 5 分
3. 特雷·杨,亚特兰大老鹰队: 4 分
并列第 4. 吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler),迈阿密热火队: 2 分
并列第 4. 凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant),菲尼克斯太阳队: 2 分
并列第 4. 达里厄斯·加兰(Darius Garland),克利夫兰骑士队: 2 分
点击查看原文:NBA predictions 2024-25: First-time All-Stars and superstar trade requests?
NBA predictions 2024-25: First-time All-Stars and superstar trade requests?
- ESPN staffAug 19, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
The 2024-25 NBA season is right around the corner – only 65 days away! – and with the release of the regular-season schedule, excitement looms for another season of matchups.
There’s a plethora of familiar faces in new places, most notably sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who, after 13 years with the Golden State Warriors, joined forces with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to attempt to make another run to the Finals.
LeBron James, the league’s leading career scorer, enters a record-tying 22nd season in the NBA, teaming up with his son Bronny James and looking to turn the Los Angeles Lakers’ luck around after two disappointing seasons.
After a relatively drama-free offseason, questions still loom across the league. Can the Boston Celtics continue their dominant streak through the East? Will Paul George be the catalyst to help lift Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers to success?
Enter ESPN’s Summer Forecast panel, a group of experts answering the NBA’s biggest questions heading into the 2024-25 season. (Here’s the math: A first-place vote received five points, a second-place vote three points and a third-place vote one.)
Here are the results:
Note: Our 2024-25 NBA Summer Forecast continues Tuesday with predictions for all the major awards.
Team Turnaround: Which teams will make a major leap?
Our Team Turnaround vote focuses on the teams that are best positioned to make a huge jump in the standings. After an injury-stricken season, the Memphis Grizzlies are primed to make a return to the contender’s table in a competitive Western Conference thanks to the return of Ja Morant and the addition of rookie big man Zach Edey.
Not far behind are the San Antonio Spurs, led by reigning Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama. After a successful run in the 2024 Paris Olympics leading France to the gold medal matchup against Team USA, Wembanyama is entering Year 2 already looking like a veteran. And now, with the addition of a tenured Chris Paul and rookie Stephon Castle, the Spurs have a chance to make a huge leap this season.
1. Memphis Grizzlies: 63 points (42% of first-place votes)
2. San Antonio Spurs: 48 points
3. Golden State Warriors: 18 points
4. Phoenix Suns: 14 points
T5. Milwaukee Bucks: 9 points
T5. Philadelphia 76ers: 9 points
T7. Houston Rockets: 6 points
T7. Orlando Magic: 6 points
T7. Sacramento Kings: 6 points
10. Brooklyn Nets: 5 points
T11. Charlotte Hornets: 1 point
T11. Miami Heat: 1 point
T11. New Orleans Pelicans: 1 point
T11. Portland Trail Blazers: 1 point
Team Turmoil: Which team will take a tumble this season?
When it comes to the Team Turmoil vote, the focus is on uncertainty on the floor, coaching staff and front office.
This season’s “winner” is the Los Angeles Lakers, who have a first-time coach in JJ Redick, a superstar turning 40 in LeBron James and plenty of questions on the court after a first-round exit in last season’s playoffs.
Following the Lakers are their crosstown rivals, the LA Clippers, who are opening the sparkling new Intuit Dome down one All-Star after Paul George left for Philadelphia. The Hawks take third after trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason and handing the offensive reins to Trae Young, whose future in Atlanta remains in question.
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 53 points (43% of first-place votes)
2. LA Clippers: 25 points
T3. Atlanta Hawks: 19 points
T3. Chicago Bulls: 19 points
T5. Denver Nuggets: 12 points
T5. Milwaukee Bucks: 12 points
7. Miami Heat: 10 points
T8. Golden State Warriors: 7 points
T8. Phoenix Suns: 7 points
10. Dallas Mavericks: 6 points
11. Brooklyn Nets: 5 points
12. Philadelphia 76ers: 4 points
T13. Houston Rockets: 3 points
T13. New York Knicks: 3 points
T13. Washington Wizards: 3 points
Which player will get his first All-Star nod?
In our most lopsided vote, Victor Wembanyama ran away with the first-time All-Star category. The 20-year-old big man is fresh off leading France to a silver medal at the 2024 Olympics in his home country and is more than ready for his sophomore campaign in the NBA.
Wembanyama averaged 21.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game last season and will now have the veteran presence of Chris Paul to help guide him into the next phase of his career.
Chet Holmgren, Wembanyama’s biggest rival to date, comes in second in the vote after a runner-up Rookie of the Year performance last season. Despite trailing Wembanyama in most statistical categories, Holmgren was able to guide the Oklahoma City Thunder to a No. 1 seed last season, and the future is bright for his young squad.
In third is newly acquired New York Knick Mikal Bridges.
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 101 points (90% of first-place votes)
2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 30 points
3. Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks: 20 points
4. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets: 13 points
5. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons: 9 points
6. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 7 points
7. Buddy Hield. Golden State Warriors: 3 points
T8. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat: 1 point
T8. Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: 1 point
Which star will make the biggest impact on his new team?
The offseason was full of free agents finding homes in new places, including nine-time All-Star Paul George joining forces with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in Philadelphia. After negotiations for a max contract fell through, George’s five-season stint with the Clippers came to a close. George remains one of the NBA’s elite two-wing players, taking the top spot for the player with the biggest impact on his new team.
Mikal Bridges took the second spot in our vote, crossing the Brooklyn Bridge to join forces with the Nova Knicks in Madison Square Garden. After coming off a run to the Eastern Conference semifinals and a 50-win campaign, Bridges will benefit from the roster of talent around him, including Jalen Brunson, Julian Randle and a recently re-signed OG Anunoby.
Defensive specialist Alex Caruso grabbed the third spot in our vote, adding veteran talent to an already top-tier defensive team in Oklahoma.
Six players made the rankings overall, indicating the NBA landscape could see a shake-up this season.
1. Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers: 68 points (48% of first-place votes)
2. Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks: 40 points
3. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 31 points
4. DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings: 24 points
5. Chris Paul, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points
6. Klay Thompson, Dallas Mavericks: 9 points
The next superstar to request a trade will be …?
Since being drafted No. 2 in 2016 and joining the Pelicans in 2019, 26-year-old Brandon Ingram hasn’t found the immediate success he was hoping for. He averaged 20.8 points, 5.7 assists and 5.1 rebounds last season – a slight downturn from his numbers in 2022-23. Ingram has one year remaining on his four-year, $158 million contract. If he doesn’t get an extension, the one-time All-Star could start shopping around.
The Chicago Bulls’ Zach LaVine has been in the center of trade speculation for months amid growing tension between the All-Star and the organization. However, the trade market never fully developed for LaVine due to his contract, and the Bulls are preparing to bring the 10-year veteran back to training camp this fall after he had season-ending surgery on his right foot last February. With the departure of DeMar DeRozan and the uncertainty of Lonzo Ball’s return, LaVine could be the next to ask out of Chicago.
(Note: This category was scored on a one-point-per-vote basis.)
T1. Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans: 5 points
T1. Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls: 5 points
3. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks: 4 points
T4. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat: 2 points
T4. Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns: 2 points
T4. Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers: 2 points
via ESPN