由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
- ESPN
2024 年 7 月 19 日，美国东部时间上午 8:00
维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)和圣安东尼奥马刺队的未来会怎样？
这位一致通过的年度最佳新秀将迎来他的第二个赛季，届时他将与未来的名人堂控球后卫克里斯·保罗(Chris Paul)并肩作战。随着球队希望围绕这位划时代的球星打造出一支争冠队伍，人们对文班亚马的期望也越来越高。
ESPN 的专家们预测这位身高 7 英尺 4 英寸的圣安东尼奥天才球员将取得巨大成就。
在他的职业生涯中，文班亚马能获得多少个联盟 MVP 和总冠军？他会追随马刺传奇球星蒂姆·邓肯(Tim Duncan)和大卫·罗宾逊(David Robinson)的脚步，在圣安东尼奥度过他的整个职业生涯吗？文班亚马将帮助法国队获得多少枚奥运奖牌？
我们的专家小组——由 ESPN 的作家、记者、编辑和分析师组成——预测了这位 NBA 下一代超级巨星的未来。
维克托·文班亚马将在 ______ 赛季成为 NBA 最好的球员。
联盟下一张面孔的争夺远未尘埃落定，安东尼·爱德华兹(Anthony Edwards)、杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)和卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)等年轻球星都在争夺这个头衔。
是时候把文班亚马的名字加入这份名单了。
尽管我们的专家小组不认为文班会在下个赛季就登上王位，但这位马刺队的内线球员正走在成为 NBA 最佳球员的路上——而且最快会在 2025-26 赛季实现。然而，我们的专家小组一致预测，这位马刺队的现象级球员将在不久的将来统治联盟。
2025-26: 15.8%
2026-27: 42.1%
2027-28: 31.6%
2028-29: 10.5%
- 维克托·文班亚马时代的元年回顾
文班能赢得多少个 NBA 总冠军？
尽管引进了文班亚马，但马刺队在 2023-24 赛季仍然以西部第 14 名的成绩结束了比赛，并且战绩与前一个赛季相同，都是 22 胜 60 负。虽然马刺队距离争夺总冠军还有很长的路要走，但他们仍在努力围绕这位冉冉升起的超级巨星打造一支更强大的球队。
但赢得 NBA 总冠军绝非易事——只有 12 名球员赢得过 6 个或更多总冠军戒指，其中比尔·拉塞尔(Bill Russell)以 11 个总冠军戒指保持着纪录。目前，我们的预测认为文班亚马最有可能获得两个总冠军戒指——与比尔·沃顿(Bill Walton)、凯文·杜兰特(Kevin Durant)、威尔特·张伯伦(Wilt Chamberlain)和科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)等人并驾齐驱。
一个总冠军: 26.3%
两个: 36.8%
三个: 31.6%
四个: 5.3%
- 文班亚马如何打破新秀墙
文班能赢得多少个 MVP？
带着巨大的期望进入联盟后，文班亚马在上个赛季获得了年度最佳新秀奖，成为 NBA 历史上第六位以全票当选的球员。他还入选了年度最佳防守球员的最终候选名单，并且是第一位入选 NBA 最佳防守阵容一阵的新秀。
但这些荣誉不会就此止步，因为文班亚马的目标是 MVP 奖——他认为这是衡量球队成功的一个很好的指标。
NBA 历史上只有九名球员获得过三次或更多 MVP，我们的专家小组中的大多数人认为文班亚马最终将跻身于一个精英群体，其中包括卡里姆·阿卜杜尔-贾巴尔(Kareem Abdul-Jabbar)（六个 MVP）、迈克尔·乔丹(Michael Jordan)（五个）、比尔·拉塞尔(Bill Russell)（五个）、勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)（四个）、威尔特·张伯伦(Wilt Chamberlain)（四个）、拉里·伯德(Larry Bird)（三个）、尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)（三个）、魔术师约翰逊(Magic Johnson)（三个）和摩西·马龙(Moses Malone)（三个）。
一个 MVP: 10.5%
两个: 15.8%
三个: 63.2%
四个: 5.3%
五个或更多: 5.3%
- 让文班亚马走向 NBA 巅峰的十年计划
马刺队将在 2024-25 赛季的西部联盟中排名第 _____。
在文班亚马的新秀赛季取得 22 胜 60 负的战绩后，马刺队将目光投向了竞争激烈的西部联盟季后赛席位。考虑到西部联盟的天才球员数量以及马刺队缺乏季后赛经验的阵容，我们的专家小组认为，下赛季马刺队获得前六名的种子席位可能不切实际。
但别担心，圣安东尼奥，进入附加赛的可能性很大，接近 80%。
进入附加赛（7-10 名）： 78.9%
无缘季后赛（11-15 名）： 21.1%
- 2024-25 赛季 NBA 胜场总数：赛季开始前需要考虑的六个赌注
文班和保罗(CP3)在圣安东尼奥（2024-25 赛季及以后）能赢得多少个季后赛系列赛？
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克里斯·保罗被与马刺队“并肩作战的机会”所吸引
克里斯·保罗坦言了他加盟马刺队的决定，他指出上场时间和为格雷格·波波维奇(Gregg Popovich)教练效力的机会是他与圣安东尼奥签约的动力。
为了帮助文班亚马成长为一名更优秀的球员，马刺队在这个休赛期签下了效力 NBA 19 年的老将、12 次入选全明星的克里斯·保罗。这位 39 岁的控球后卫加盟了一支年轻的圣安东尼奥球队，所以他将与文班亚马并肩作战多少个赛季还不清楚。
由于这些因素，这对搭档未能一起赢得季后赛系列赛的可能性最大。那些投票支持三场系列赛胜利的人押注要么是圣安东尼奥将在 2025 年的总决赛中爆冷，要么是保罗将在这支球队效力多个赛季。
零系列赛胜利： 68.4%
一个： 21.1%
三个： 10.5%
- 自由球员评级：保罗如何与文班亚马适配
文班会在圣安东尼奥度过他的整个职业生涯吗？
马刺队历史上几位最成功的球员都在圣安东尼奥度过了他们的整个职业生涯，并获得了无数奖杯。名人堂成员大卫·罗宾逊、蒂姆·邓肯和马努·吉诺比利(Manu Ginobili)都是马刺队的终身球员，而科怀·伦纳德和托尼·帕克(Tony Parker)等其他球员在格雷格·波波维奇教练的带领下取得成功后都离开了球队，帕克在夏洛特黄蜂队度过了他的最后一个赛季。文班亚马处于一个独特的位置，他将继承圣安东尼奥内线球员的衣钵，但有几个因素影响着他在德克萨斯州的未来。波波维奇还会执教多久？球队将如何围绕这位未来的全明星球员建队？对于文班在这支球队的长期未来，我们的专家小组的意见几乎平分秋色。
是： 52.6%
否： 47.4%
- 文班亚马能让圣安东尼奥成为自由球员的目的地吗？
在文班亚马的篮球生涯中，他和法国队能赢得多少枚奥运奖牌？
法国队在奥运会上有着辉煌的历史，尽管金牌一直与这个 2024 年奥运会东道主国家无缘。蓝衣军团曾三次获得银牌（1948 年、2000 年、2020 年），距离金牌只有一步之遥，包括在上届奥运会上。但随着文班亚马带领着一群年轻球星，法国队将在未来一段时间内对金牌构成威胁。考虑到这一点，我们的预测是文班亚马和法国队将在他的职业生涯中三次登上领奖台。令人惊讶的是，“两次”和“零次”的得票率并列第二，而 5.3% 的专家小组成员认为文班将带领法国队至少获得四枚奖牌。
零枚奖牌： 21.1%
一枚： 15.8%
两枚： 21.1%
三枚： 36.8%
四枚或更多： 5.3%
- 美国队在巴黎奥运会的赛程、比分和新闻
点击查看原文：That many MVPs for Wemby?! Projecting what's next for the Spurs' phenom
That many MVPs for Wemby?! Projecting what’s next for the Spurs’ phenom
- ESPN
Jul 19, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
What’s next for Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs?
The reigning unanimous Rookie of the Year will enter his sophomore season with a new point guard in future Hall of Famer Chris Paul and new expectations as the franchise looks to build its roster into a contender around its generational star.
And ESPN’s experts are predicting big things for San Antonio’s 7-foot-4 phenom.
How many league MVPs and titles will Wembanyama amass during his career? Will he follow in the footsteps of legendary Spurs big men Tim Duncan and David Robinson and spend his entire career in San Antonio? How many Olympic medals will Wembanyama help deliver for France?
Our panel – composed of ESPN writers, reporters, editors and analysts – projects what lies ahead for the NBA’s next superstar.
Victor Wembanyama will be the best player in the NBA by the _____ season.
The race for the next face of the league is far from settled, with young stars such as Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic among the group vying for the title.
It’s time to add Wembanyama to the list.
Though our panel doesn’t foresee Wemby taking the throne next season, the Spurs’ big man is on his way to becoming the NBA’s best player – and as soon as the 2025-26 season. Our panel was unanimous, however, in predicting that the Spurs phenom will, at some point soon, own the league.
2025-26: 15.8%
2026-27: 42.1%
2027-28: 31.6%
2028-29: 10.5%
- Inside Year 1 of the Victor Wembanyama era
How many NBA titles will Wemby win?
Despite adding Wembanyama to the roster, the Spurs ended the 2023-24 campaign 14th in the West and with the same 22-60 record they had the previous season. Though the Spurs are a long way from title contention, they’re still trying to build a stronger team around their budding superstar.
But winning an NBA title is no easy feat – and only 12 players have won six or more rings, with Bill Russell (11) holding the record. For now, our forecast narrowly predicts Wembanyama claiming two rings – joining the likes of Bill Walton, Kevin Durant, Wilt Chamberlain and Kawhi Leonard.
One title: 26.3%
Two: 36.8%
Three: 31.6%
Four: 5.3%
- How Wembanyama shattered the rookie wall
How many MVPs will Wemby win?
With massive expectations entering the league last season, Wembanyama responded by claiming the Rookie of the Year award, becoming the sixth player in NBA history to do so with a unanimous vote. He was also a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year and the first rookie to make the NBA All-Defensive first team.
But the accolades won’t stop there as Wembanyama has his sights set on the MVP award – something he believes is a good barometer of team success.
Only nine players in NBA history have claimed three or more MVPs, and a majority of our panel has Wembanyama eventually sitting among an elite group that includes Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six MVPs), Michael Jordan (five), Bill Russell (five), LeBron James (four), Wilt Chamberlain (four), Larry Bird (three), Nikola Jokic (three), Magic Johnson (three) and Moses Malone (three).
One MVP: 10.5%
Two: 15.8%
Three: 63.2%
Four: 5.3%
Five or more: 5.3%
- The decade-long plan to bring Wembanyama to NBA glory
The Spurs will finish _____ in the Western Conference in 2024-25.
After going 22-60 in Wembanyama’s rookie year, the Spurs have their eyes on a playoff spot in the crowded Western Conference postseason picture. With the amount of talent in the West as well as a roster lacking a lot of postseason experience, a top-six seed might be out of the question for the Spurs next season, according to our panel.
But don’t fret, San Antonio, a spot in the play-in was the big winner at nearly 80%.
In the play-in tournament (7-10): 78.9%
Outside the postseason (11-15): 21.1%
- 2024-25 NBA win totals: Six bets to consider before the season
How many playoff series will Wemby and CP3 win in San Antonio (2024-25 and beyond)?
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Chris Paul enticed by ‘opportunity to play’ with Spurs
Chris Paul opens up about his decision to join the Spurs, citing playing time and the opportunity to play for head coach Gregg Popovich as motivations for signing in San Antonio.
In a move aimed at helping Wembanyama grow as a player, the Spurs signed 19-year veteran and 12-time All-Star Chris Paul this offseason. The 39-year-old point guard joins a young San Antonio roster, so how many seasons he’ll play alongside Wemby isn’t clear.
Due to those factors, the duo failing to win a playoff series together was the runaway choice. Those voting for three series wins are banking on either San Antonio making a shocking run to the 2025 Finals or Paul playing multiple seasons with the franchise.
Zero series wins: 68.4%
One: 21.1%
Three: 10.5%
- Free agency grades: How CP3 fits next to Wemby
Will Wemby spend his entire career in San Antonio?
Several of the Spurs’ most successful players spent their entire careers in San Antonio and had plenty of trophies to show for it. Hall of Famers David Robinson, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were Spurs for life, while others such as Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker – who spent his final season with the Charlotte Hornets – moved on after achieving success under coach Gregg Popovich. Wembanyama is in the unique position of carrying on the San Antonio big man legacy, but several factors are at play in projecting his future in Texas. How long will Popovich continue to coach? And how will the franchise surround the future All-Star? Our panel was nearly split on Wemby’s long-term future with the franchise.
Yes: 52.6%
No: 47.4%
- Can Wemby turn San Antonio into a free agent destination?
How many Olympic medals will Wemby and France win during his basketball career?
France has a decorated history in the Olympics, though the gold medal has eluded the 2024 host nation. With three silver medals (1948, 2000, 2020), the Blues have come close, including at the last Olympics, but with Wembanyama leading a group of young stars, France will threaten for gold for the foreseeable future. With that in mind, our forecast has Wembanyama and France medaling three times throughout his career. Surprisingly, “two” and “zero” tied for second in the survey, while 5.3% of our panel said Wemby would lead France to at least four medals.
Zero medals: 21.1%
One: 15.8%
Two: 21.1%
Three: 36.8%
Four or more: 5.3%
- Team USA at the Paris Olympics: Schedules, scores and news
via ESPN