By Ben Golliver, Zach Kram / ESPN, 2026-10-29 19:00:00
欢迎来到十月的最后几天，这里有飘落的树叶、提前到来的黄昏、点亮夜色的万圣节装饰——以及每年一度的保留节目：对新赛季第一周的NBA比赛做出过度反应。
毕竟，小样本量戏剧已经贡献了不少早期“金句”：
俄克拉荷马城、纽约和迈阿密的天都要塌了！
圣安东尼奥的三后卫实验必须叫停！
没有拉梅洛·鲍尔，夏洛特反而更强了！
泰·杰罗姆？泰·杰罗姆！
带着这些早期剧情以及更多话题，让我们来审视围绕年轻的2026-27赛季的10个流行过度反应——并判断哪些说法能站得住脚。（注：数据截至周二的比赛。）
迈阿密热火将打出2008年以来最差战绩。
扎克·克拉姆：不是过度反应
作为参照，2007-08赛季是热火最后一次胜场不足37胜，那个赛季他们在收官阶段摆烂，打出15胜67负，试图在选秀中摘下德里克·罗斯，结果徒劳无功。
单凭平均数法则，2026-27赛季的热火也注定会回暖。根据GeniusIQ追踪数据，他们在进攻端的投篮运气排在联盟倒数第七，防守端的投篮运气则是倒数第二。迈阿密实际上一直在迫使对手出手高难度投篮，但对手们却手感火热，据Cleaning the Glass统计，对手的中距离命中率高达53%，三分命中率也有40%。
另一方面，即便算上糟糕的投篮运气，热火的进攻也依然深陷泥潭，而后卫达维恩·米切尔是唯一看起来能与扬尼斯·阿德托昆博顺畅配合的角色球员。情况还有时间改变——但截至周三，ESPN的篮球实力指数预测热火整个赛季只能赢38场。这已经低于季前预测的46胜，距离这支球队的历史性基准线只差一场。
本·戈利弗：过度反应
需要明确的是：阿德托昆博时代在南海滩的开局确实糟糕透顶。热火非但没有借助那笔得到两届MVP的重磅交易在休赛期完成蜕变，反而在自由市场上眼睁睁看着诺曼·鲍尔加盟芝加哥公牛，最后只签下了36岁、早已不复当年之勇的克莱·汤普森。在球场上，热火显然还需要一名可靠的持球手和更多投手，而阿德托昆博也需要更多时间与巴姆·阿德巴约磨合。
尽管面临这些挑战，给热火主帅埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉及其教练组一段较长的缓冲期是合理的。阿德托昆博对球权的掌控需求与迈阿密2025-26赛季流畅运转的进攻体系产生了冲突，而且几名老将似乎还在慢慢进入新赛季状态。斯波尔斯特拉是一位善于调整的教练，他曾用天赋更平庸的阵容拼出过胜率过半的战绩，如果迈阿密的进攻困境持续，他也会愿意信任更年轻的选项。
最好还是等热火即将开始的西部客场之旅结束后再做判断。如果热火面对洛杉矶快船、萨克拉门托国王、金州勇士和犹他爵士这样的球队都无法找回状态，那才该拉响警报。好消息是：阿德托昆博开局阶段效率极高，在因伤缺席上赛季大部分比赛后，他场均能贡献27.6分、11.2个篮板和4.6次助攻。
没有杰伦·威廉姆斯和卡森·华莱士，俄克拉荷马城雷霆的夺冠希望破灭了。
克拉姆：不是过度反应
本周早些时候，我更深入地分析过这两笔长期伤病对俄克拉荷马城夺冠前景的影响。简化版结论：雷霆过去几个赛季的制胜公式，是将吉尔杰斯-亚历山大MVP级别的进攻与联盟最佳防守相结合。而威廉姆斯、华莱士以及卢根茨·多特（夏季交易离队）的集体缺阵，让第二个因素严重变形。
没错，中锋切特·霍姆格伦和以赛亚·哈滕斯坦依然构成一道令人生畏的内线屏障，亚历克斯·卡鲁索（目前因脚踝扭伤缺阵）也仍是独一无二的防守力量。但俄克拉荷马城其余的外线轮换如今实在太过单薄，防守端疑虑重重——除非其中一名受伤的主力能在季后赛前复出，或者球队在赛季中完成一笔重要交易，否则雷霆再夺一冠我会感到意外。
戈利弗：（情绪化的）过度反应
是的，当雷霆总经理萨姆·普雷斯蒂周一宣布威廉姆斯和华莱士因重伤将在可预见的未来缺阵时，天塌下来的感觉确实真切。这可不是开启卫冕之旅的方式。在这些伤病之后，加上多特、阿隆·威金斯和以赛亚·乔在休赛期被交易，雷霆2024-25夺冠赛季出场时间排名前六的球员已经走了五个。唉。
但吉尔杰斯-亚历山大身边依然人才济济，而他本赛季开局的表现堪称惊艳。俄克拉荷马城周一晚击败太阳，展现了球队的韧性；值得一提的是，上赛季尽管威廉姆斯整个常规赛和季后赛都饱受伤病困扰，雷霆距离总决赛也只差一场胜利。普雷斯蒂手握选秀权和可交易的合同，可以在交易截止日前补强过渡阵容，同时他还拥有一支为长远打造的深度阵容。轻视雷霆，后果自负。
泰·杰罗姆将入选全明星。
戈利弗：过度反应
只有刻薄的人才会看衰杰罗姆——他在经历无数次起伏之后才走到今天，看起来注定要迎来生涯最佳赛季。但孟菲斯灰熊赛季初的赛程简直软得不能再软：爵士看起来随时准备送给对方后卫30分，而勇士的伤病问题和国王的全面混乱让他们根本算不上有质量的胜利。杰罗姆是一名出色的得分手，他完全配得上这次升任主控的机会，但几周后再来检验吧。好消息是：勒布朗·詹姆斯和科怀·伦纳德夏天都离开了西部，全明星席位比往年更多了。
克拉姆：不是过度反应
当然，杰罗姆上赛季没进全明星，因为他只打了15场比赛。但他作为球星级别的进攻球员已经有一段时间了，只是在他开始场均砍下30分之前，很少有人注意到。以下是2025-26赛季NBA进攻正负值（BPM）的领跑者：
- 尼古拉·约基奇
- 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大
- 泰·杰罗姆
- 卢卡·东契奇
- 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博
- 科怀·伦纳德
- 维克托·文班亚马
- 斯蒂芬·库里
- 贾马尔·穆雷
- 多诺万·米切尔
吉米·巴特勒三世何时复出都无关紧要——金州勇士已经完蛋了。
戈利弗：不是过度反应
勇士周一终于拿到了赛季首胜，但他们的开局一周令人沮丧。由于巴特勒、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯以及多名球员因伤病缺阵，勇士在背靠背比赛中让库里轮休，并在周六对阵菲尼克斯太阳时排出了由亚克塞尔·伦德博格、布兰登·威廉姆斯、威尔·理查德、吉·桑托斯和格雷厄姆·艾克组成的首发阵容。这套五人组——查尔斯·巴克利“他为谁效力？”环节的绝佳素材——本赛季的薪水加起来还不到2000万美元。
与此同时，巴特勒（5600万美元）和波尔津吉斯（1950万美元）双双作壁上观。这笔账无论如何都算不过来。
克拉姆：不是过度反应
我们终于达成一致了，本。我对勇士的困境并不特别意外，因为从赛季初开始，这看上去就是一个过渡之年——伤病问题一堆，夏天又没有任何实质性补强。（伦德博格除外，这名新秀的表现令人惊叹。）
也许他们还能在附加赛争夺中勉强维持，因为西部的竞争深度看起来比往年更浅——如果劳里·马尔卡宁和小贾伦·杰克逊长期缺阵，爵士可能也完蛋了——但金州最重要的目标应该是为2027-28赛季的更大成功做好铺垫。
圣安东尼奥马刺将在感恩节前放弃三后卫首发阵容。
克拉姆：过度反应
我一直认为关于首发阵容的争论有些小题大做，因为球队在一场比赛中会不断混搭组合；事实也证明，达龙·福克斯、迪伦·哈珀和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔这三名后卫本赛季四场比赛总共只同场了43分钟。
虽然用净效率值在这么早的阶段下重大结论为时尚早，但马刺在这些时间里并没有挣扎。据databallr统计，这套三后卫阵容在场时球队净胜15.4分。如果圣安东尼奥的教练组出于无形资产方面的考虑，认为需要让福克斯、哈珀和卡斯尔继续留在首发，那么目前还没有任何证据表明这是个坏主意。
戈利弗：过度反应
马刺主帅米奇·约翰逊可能正走向一场需要数月才能见分晓的真正拉锯战。当然，关键决定是让福克斯首发、哈珀首发，还是两名控卫同时首发。但约翰逊也可以通过用德文·瓦塞尔换下托拜厄斯·哈里斯或朱利安·尚帕尼，为这对组合争取磨合时间。考虑到福克斯的高额薪水和哈珀的潜力，圣安东尼奥必须在把任何一名后卫按到替补席之前穷尽所有可能性。
萨克拉门托国王主帅道格·克里斯蒂撑不到新年。
戈利弗：不是过度反应
萨克拉门托冒出的危险信号之多，简直像奥运会开幕式一样壮观。当然，核心矛盾在于新秀后卫小达柳斯·阿卡夫与老将多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯和扎克·拉文之间。国王在阿卡夫生涯前四场比赛里就让他出手了93次（！），希望他能成长为球队的门面后卫，但那些经验更丰富的队友完全有理由质疑这是否是赢球的正确方式。
克里斯蒂进退两难，而本·西蒙斯季前赛的跟腱撕裂让这份本就艰难的工作雪上加霜。国王看起来注定成为NBA最差的球队，而这种程度的无能通常会引来老板维韦克·拉纳戴夫的雷霆手段。
克拉姆：不是过度反应
自拉纳戴夫2013年买下球队以来，国王已经换了五任主帅。两次解雇发生在赛季末（2016年的乔治·卡尔和2019年的戴夫·乔尔格），但另外三次都发生在赛季初：卢克·沃顿（2021年）在11月，迈克尔·马龙（2014年）和迈克·布朗（2024年）在12月。
这个规律告诉我，克里斯蒂撑不到2027年的概率超过50%。
纽约尼克斯无法突破首轮。
克拉姆：过度反应
我在赛季前就预测纽约的常规赛胜场会比去年少，所以面对艰难赛程打出胜率不足五成的开局，我实在无法假装意外。
尼克斯场上最大的问题是他们排在第25位的进攻，但我预计会迅速反弹：据Cleaning the Glass统计，他们目前中距离命中率仅30%，排名垫底，而一年前在阵容基本相同的情况下，他们以45%的命中率排名第五。
此外，展望季后赛，我需要看到大得多的挣扎样本，才会考虑纽约在东部任何一轮系列赛中都不被看好的可能性。今年的竞争会更激烈，但尼克斯是经过验证的季后赛强队。
戈利弗：不是过度反应
这一条更多关乎感觉，而非硬核数据。作为卫冕冠军，尼克斯开局一周的赛程充满强敌，颇具挑战。在这个背景下，2胜3负的开局真的算不上世界末日。纽约上周与雄心勃勃的争冠球队76人和凯尔特人都打得有来有回，随后又在周二送给底特律活塞赛季首败。
但尼克斯屡屡无法拿下那些胶着的比赛，提醒着人们他们2026年季后赛从头到尾是多么受命运眷顾。杰伦·布伦森似乎命中了每一个需要他命中的关键球，而唯一一次布伦森没能挺身而出时，OG·阿努诺比就在那里完成了那记百万分之一概率的补篮。
一次又一次，尼克斯靠下半场逆转死里逃生。如今他们成了众矢之的，这种模式感觉难以为继。老板詹姆斯·多兰的运作方式也像是一个满足于拥有一枚戒指、而非迫切想要再添一冠的人。
近年来，比尼克斯更年轻的球队都在冲击两连冠的过程中被耗尽，所以如果他们在五月之前就油尽灯枯或遭遇改变赛季走向的伤病，没人会感到特别意外。
休赛期的交易让夏洛特黄蜂目前的阵容变强了。
克拉姆：不是过度反应（尽管我已经做好鲍尔让这句话显得愚蠢的准备）
我们都以为夏洛特那笔令人意外的休赛期交易是着眼未来的。毕竟，这支球队送走了两名基石球员，也是队内薪水最高的两名球员——鲍尔和迈尔斯·布里奇斯。但黄蜂换回了极大的灵活性和众多有价值的选秀资产，这种“退一步、进两步”的思路是说得通的。
我们或许低估了黄蜂现有阵容的实力。尽管首发后场因科比·怀特和康·克尼普尔的伤病一分钟都没打，夏洛特依然保持着胜率过半的战绩。布兰登·米勒在签下五年新秀续约合同后，似乎完成了一次飞跃。而休赛期通过鲍尔和布里奇斯交易来到夏洛特的纳兹·里德和格雷森·艾伦，合计场均贡献36.3分，三分命中率44%。尤其是里德，他在大前锋位置上是对布里奇斯的实质性升级。
戈利弗：过度反应
考虑到你提到的伤病问题以及黄蜂迄今为止偏弱的对手质量，这支球队还有待观察。话虽如此，交易布里奇斯的决定已经初现端倪，将成为他们永远不会后悔的操作之一。
夏洛特的短期成败将取决于米勒能否持续展现头号得分手的统治力，以及克尼普尔能否从容承担更重的组织任务。除此之外，黄蜂管理层必须展现出围绕这对冉冉升起的双核投入真金白银的意愿。
鲍尔的交易最终可能成为夏洛特和明尼苏达的双赢，但黄蜂迟早需要在天赋的获取与保留上优先于精打细算的薪资管理。否则，他们只是在原地打转。
沃克·凯斯勒应该入选2028年美国队。
戈利弗：不是过度反应
赛季开始前，湖人在与爵士的先签后换交易中就主张，凯斯勒值得用溢价选秀权去换，因为要找到一名25岁、既能在进攻端完成终结、又能在防守端切实护框的中锋，实在太难了。
格兰特·希尔、斯波尔斯特拉和美国篮协应该明智地把2028年洛杉矶奥运会的目标锁定在拥有这种技术特点的大个子身上，尤其是在乔尔·恩比德、安东尼·戴维斯和詹姆斯在巴黎夺金后可能不再回归的情况下。阿德巴约、霍姆格伦、杰克逊和埃文·莫布利都可能参与竞争，但凯斯勒拥有这些球员所欠缺的纯粹体型和对抗强度。当文班亚马和约基奇对美国王朝构成威胁时，拥有一名传统中锋可用，难道不是很有帮助吗？
克拉姆：过度反应
你在提醒杰罗姆火热开局时引用了灰熊的赛程。那我对凯斯勒也如法炮制：他迄今的两场代表作，一场面对的是没有首发中锋的勇士，另一场面对的是以赛亚·杰克逊坐镇内线的快船。这可算不上文班亚马和约基奇级别的对手。
凯斯勒确实有国际大赛经验，他曾是不成功的2023年世界杯阵容中的深度替补。我相信他出现在2028年美国大个子球员的长名单上，但要在排序中把他往前放，我还需要多得多的证据。
芝加哥公牛将成为东部最差的球队。
戈利弗：不是过度反应
尽管季前大家都在谈论新抽签规则会让本赛季的竞争更加均衡，但依然存在一些相当糟糕的球队。公牛、雄鹿和篮网看起来都有实力争夺分区最差战绩。（然而不知为何，热火比他们所有队都更难看。）
芝加哥开局最可怕的地方在于，多伦多和波士顿把公牛打得有多彻底。虽然公牛想在新帅蒂亚戈·斯普利特手下打快，但面对强队时他们完全被赶下了球场。
当然，如果惨败不断累积，也没有理由恐慌：应该鼓励凯莱布·威尔逊放开手脚、允许犯错，而芝加哥的新管理层应该专注于考察哪些老将适合围绕这位前途无量的新秀前锋长期建队。现在就预测公牛会在交易截止日甩卖球员，是不是太早了？
克拉姆：过度反应
公牛的进攻效率排名垫底，但我认为这更多是运气不佳的产物，而非打法有问题。根据GeniusIQ追踪数据，公牛的量化投篮概率排名第四，这一指标综合考量了出手位置、防守人距离和射手能力等因素。但公牛的实际表现比这个投篮质量低了11.1%，遥遥垫底。作为参照，2025-26整个赛季任何球队的最大差距也只有1.7%——所以芝加哥的投篮手感注定会回暖。
这并不意味着我认为公牛能打进附加赛或达到什么高度。但我确实相信，他们接下来会打得更像一支典型的重建球队，而不是每隔一场就惨败一次。
由生成式 AI 翻译，翻译内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
查看原文：Judging 10 early-season NBA overreactions
Judging 10 early-season NBA overreactions
Welcome to the final days of October, featuring falling leaves, early sunsets, Halloween decorations illuminating the night – and the yearly pastime of overreacting to the first week of a new NBA season.
After all, small sample size theatre has provided early gems such as:
The sky is falling in Oklahoma City, New York and Miami!
The three-guard experiment in San Antonio needs to go!
Charlotte is already better without LaMelo Ball!
Ty Jerome? Ty Jerome!
With those early storylines and more in mind, let’s examine 10 popular overreactions to the young 2026-27 season – and determine which have staying power. (Note: stats through Tuesday’s games.)
The Miami Heat will finish with their worst record since 2008.
Zach Kram: Not an overreaction
For reference, 2007-08 was the last time the Heat finished with fewer than 37 wins, the season that they tanked down the stretch to go 15-67 in a futile attempt to land Derrick Rose in the draft.
Merely by the law of averages, the 2026-27 Heat are bound to improve. They’ve had the seventh-worst shooting luck on offense, according to GeniusIQ tracking, and the second-worst shooting luck on defense. Miami is actually forcing teams into tough shots, but its opponents have been on fire regardless, making 53% of their midrange shots and 40% of their 3s, per Cleaning the Glass.
On the other hand, the Heat’s offense has been stuck in the mud even accounting for that poor shooting luck, and guard Davion Mitchell is the only role player who looks comfortable playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo. There’s time for that to change – but as of Wednesday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index predicts the Heat will finish the season with just 38 wins. That’s already down from 46 projected wins in the preseason, and just one ahead of this historical franchise benchmark.
Ben Golliver: Overreaction
Let’s be clear: The Antetokounmpo era in South Beach is off to an atrocious start. Instead of building off its blockbuster trade for the two-time MVP with a transformative offseason, the Heat lost Norman Powell to the Chicago Bulls in free agency and settled for adding Klay Thompson, who is a shell of his former self at age 36. On the court, it’s already clear that the Heat need another proven ball handler and more shooting, and Antetokounmpo needs more time to jell with Bam Adebayo.
Despite all those challenges, it’s reasonable to give Heat coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff a long runway. Antetokounmpo’s need to dominate the ball has clashed with the free-flowing offensive system that Miami utilized in 2025-26, and several veteran players seem to be easing into the new season. Spoelstra is a tinkerer who has conjured winning records from less talented rosters, and he’ll be willing to trust his younger options if Miami’s offensive struggles persist.
It’s probably best to withhold judgment until after the Heat’s upcoming trip out West. If the Heat can’t get right against teams such as the LA Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz, sound the alarm. There is some good news: Antetokounmpo has been very productive in the early going, averaging 27.6 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists after missing most of last season due to injuries.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s title hopes are gone without Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace.
Kram: Not an overreaction
Earlier this week, I went into more depth about the impact of these two long-term injuries on Oklahoma City’s title chances. The simplified version: The Thunder’s winning formula over the past few seasons has been to combine MVP-level offense from Gilgeous-Alexander with the best defense in the league. The collective loss of Williams, Wallace and Luguentz Dort (via summer trade) bends that second factor out of shape.
Yes, centers Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein still form an imposing backline, and Alex Caruso (currently out with an ankle sprain) remains a singular defensive force. But the rest of Oklahoma City’s perimeter rotation is now so thin, with enough defensive questions, that I would be surprised if it won another title – barring a return from one of those injured starters before the playoffs or a significant in-season trade.
Golliver: (emotional) overreaction
Yes, it sure felt as if the sky was falling Monday when Thunder general manager Sam Presti announced that Williams and Wallace are out for the foreseeable future with significant injuries. That’s no way to launch a title chase. After those injuries and the offseason trades of Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, the Thunder are down five of their top six players by minutes logged during the 2024-25 championship season. Oof.
But there’s an awful lot of talent remaining around Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been sensational to start this season. Oklahoma City showed its resolve by beating Phoenix on Monday night, and it’s worth noting it was only one win from reaching the Finals last year despite an injury-plagued season and postseason for Williams. Presti has picks and tradeable contracts to invest in stop-gap additions before the trade deadline, but he also has a deep roster that was built for the long haul. Count out the Thunder at your own peril.
Ty Jerome will be an All-Star.
Golliver: Overreaction
Only a jerk would root against Jerome, who looks destined for a career year after surviving countless fits and starts to get here. But the Memphis Grizzlies’ schedule has been about as soft as it gets to start the season: The Jazz look poised to give up 30 points to any opposing guard, while the Warriors’ injury issues and the Kings’ general dysfunction disqualify them from being quality wins. Jerome is a talented scorer who more than earned this promotion to lead ball handler, but let’s check back in a few weeks. The good news: LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard left the Western Conference over the summer, so there are more available All-Star spots than usual.
Kram: Not an overreaction
Jerome wasn’t an All-Star last season, of course, because he played only 15 games. But he has been a star-level offensive player for a while now, even if few people recognized it until he started averaging 30 points. Here are the NBA’s leaders in offensive box plus-minus for the 2025-26 campaign:
- Nikola Jokic
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Ty Jerome
- Luka Doncic
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Kawhi Leonard
- Victor Wembanyama
- Stephen Curry
- Jamal Murray
- Donovan Mitchell
It doesn’t matter when Jimmy Butler III returns – the Golden State Warriors are cooked.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
The Warriors finally got their first win of the season Monday, but their opening week has been disheartening. With Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and several players missing time with injuries or ailments, the Warriors sat Curry on a back-to-back and rolled out a starting lineup featuring Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandon Williams, Will Richard, Gui Santos and Graham Ike on Saturday against the Phoenix Suns. That five-man group – great fodder for Charles Barkley on “Who he play for?” – will combine to earn less than $20 million this season.
Meanwhile, Butler ($56 million) and Porzingis ($19.5 million) are missing in action. There’s no way to overcome that math.
Kram: Not an overreaction
We finally agree, Ben. I’m not especially surprised by the Warriors’ predicament because this seemed like a gap year from the start, due to all their injury issues and the lack of any real upgrades over the summer. (Aside from Lendeborg, who looks incredible as a rookie.)
Maybe they can stick around the play-in race because the West looks shallower than usual – the Jazz might also be cooked if Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. are out for a while – but Golden State’s most important goal should be setting itself up for greater success in 2027-28.
The San Antonio Spurs will kill their three-guard starting lineup by Thanksgiving.
Kram: Overreaction
I tend to think debates about starting lineups are overblown because of how much teams mix and match over the course of a game; lo and behold, the guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle has shared the court for just 43 minutes across four games this season.
And while it’s way too early to come to significant conclusions using net rating, it’s not as if the Spurs have struggled in those minutes. They’re plus-15.4 with that three-guard lineup, according to databallr. If San Antonio’s coaching staff believes it needs to keep Fox, Harper and Castle in the starting lineup for intangible reasons, then there’s no evidence yet that that’s a bad idea.
Golliver: Overreaction
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson could be headed for a real saga that might take months to play out. Of course, the critical decision is whether to start Fox, Harper or both point guards. But Johnson could also buy time for that duo to work things out by swapping Devin Vassell for Tobias Harris or Julian Champagnie. Given Fox’s enormous salary and Harper’s potential, San Antonio must exhaust every possibility before shifting one guard to the bench.
Sacramento Kings coach Doug Christie won’t make it to the new year.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
There are so many red flags coming out of Sacramento that it’s starting to look like an Olympics opening ceremony. Naturally, the central tension concerns rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr. and veterans Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine. The Kings have turned Acuff loose for 93(!) shots in his first four career games with hopes he will develop into a franchise guard, but his more experienced teammates have good reason to wonder whether that’s the best approach to winning.
Christie is stuck, and Ben Simmons’ preseason Achilles tear made a tough job even tougher. The Kings look destined to be the NBA’s worst team, and that level of ineptitude typically prompts a response from owner Vivek Ranadivé.
Kram: Not an overreaction
The Kings have let go of five coaches since Ranadivé bought the team in 2013. Two firings came at the end of a season (George Karl in 2016 and Dave Joerger in 2019), but the other three came early in a campaign: Luke Walton (2021) in November and Michael Malone (2014) and Mike Brown (2024) in December.
That pattern tells me there’s greater than a 50% chance that Christie won’t make it to 2027.
The New York Knicks won’t get out of the first round.
Kram: Overreaction
I predicted before the season that New York would win fewer regular-season games than a year ago, so I can’t profess to be surprised by their sub-.500 start against a tough schedule.
The greatest on-court problem for the Knicks is their 25th-ranked offense, but I expect a prompt turnaround: They rank last in making just 30% of their midrange shots, per Cleaning the Glass, after ranking fifth at 45% with largely the same roster a year ago.
In looking ahead to the postseason, moreover, I would have to see a much larger sample of struggles to consider the likelihood that New York won’t be favored in any playoff matchup in the East. The competition will be tougher this year, but the Knicks are proven playoff performers.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
This one is more about vibes than hard analytics. As is often the case for defending champions, the Knicks have had a challenging opening week schedule filled with marquee opponents. In that context, the 2-3 start really isn’t the end of the world. New York was in competitive games against aspiring contenders in the 76ers and Celtics last week and then handed the Detroit Pistons their first loss on Tuesday.
But the Knicks’ inability to pull out those close games was a reminder of just how charmed their 2026 postseason was from start to finish. Jalen Brunson seemingly hit every big shot he needed to hit, and the one time Brunson didn’t come through, OG Anunoby was right there for the one-in-a-million tip-in.
Time after time, the Knicks cheated death with second-half comebacks. That doesn’t feel like a sustainable formula now that they’ve got the target on their backs. Owner James Dolan has also operated like a man who is comfortable with one ring rather than desperate to add another.
Trying to win back-to-back championships has exhausted younger teams than the Knicks in recent years, so no one should be all that surprised if they run out of gas or encounter season-altering injuries before May.
Offseason trades made the Charlotte Hornets’ current roster better.
Kram: Not an overreaction (although I’m prepared for Ball to make this statement look silly)
We all thought Charlotte’s surprising offseason trades were made with an eye toward the future. After all, the franchise dealt two foundational players and their two highest-salaried players in Ball and Miles Bridges. But the Hornets received so much flexibility and so many valuable draft assets in return that the “one step back, two steps forward” approach made sense.
We might have been giving the Hornets’ present-day roster short shrift with that assessment. Charlotte has a winning record despite receiving zero minutes from its starting backcourt, as Coby White and Kon Knueppel deal with injuries. Brandon Miller appears to have taken a leap after signing a five-year rookie extension. And offseason additions Naz Reid and Grayson Allen, who came to Charlotte as part of the Ball and Bridges trades, have combined to average 36.3 points while making 44% of their 3-pointers. Reid, in particular, represents a meaningful upgrade over Bridges at power forward.
Golliver: Overreaction
The jury is still out on the Hornets given the injuries you mentioned and their weak quality of competition to date. With that said, the decision to trade Bridges is already shaping up to be one of those moves they will never regret.
Charlotte’s short-term success will be determined by Miller’s ability to consistently flex his muscles as an alpha scorer and Knueppel’s comfort handling greater playmaking duties. Beyond that, Hornets ownership must demonstrate a willingness to spend to build around that budding duo.
The Ball trade could wind up as a win-win for Charlotte and Minnesota, but at some point, the Hornets will need to prioritize talent acquisition and retention rather than careful cap management. Otherwise, they’re spinning their wheels.
Walker Kessler should be on Team USA in 2028.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
Before the season, the Lakers argued that Kessler was worth paying a premium price in draft picks in their summer sign-and-trade with the Jazz because it’s incredibly difficult to find centers at his age (25) with the ability to finish plays on offense and credibly protect the paint on defense.
Grant Hill, Spoelstra and USA Basketball would be wise to target big men with that exact skill set for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, especially if Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and James opt not to return after winning gold in Paris. Adebayo, Holmgren, Jackson and Evan Mobley could all be in the mix, but Kessler brings a level of sheer size and physicality that those players lack. Wouldn’t it be helpful to have a traditional center to deploy with Wembanyama and Jokic looming as threats to the U.S. dynasty?
Kram: Overreaction
You cited the Grizzlies’ schedule when cautioning about Jerome’s hot start. I’ll do the same for Kessler, whose two big games to date came against a Warriors team that didn’t start a center and a Clippers team with Isaiah Jackson in the middle. That’s not exactly Wembanyama- and Jokic-level competition.
Kessler does have international experience, as he was a deep reserve for the unsuccessful 2023 World Cup squad. I believe he’s on the long list of American big men for 2028, but I would need much more evidence to place him higher in the pecking order.
The Chicago Bulls will be the worst team in the East.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
For all the preseason talk about improved parity this season thanks to the new lottery rules, there are still some pretty bad teams. The Bulls, Bucks and Nets have all looked like viable contenders to finish with the conference’s worst record. (And yet, somehow, the Heat have been harder to watch than all of them.)
The scary part about Chicago’s start is how thoroughly Toronto and Boston thumped the Bulls. While the Bulls want to play fast under new coach Tiago Splitter, they’re just getting completely run off the court by good teams.
There’s obviously no reason to panic if the blowout losses mount: Caleb Wilson should be encouraged to play free and make mistakes, and Chicago’s new front office should focus on which of its veteran players look like long-term fits around the promising rookie forward. And is it too early to predict the Bulls will be getting rid of players at the trade deadline?
Kram: Overreaction
The Bulls rank dead last in offensive efficiency, but I believe that’s more a product of bad luck than bad process. According to GeniusIQ tracking, the Bulls rank fourth in quantified shot probability, which accounts for factors such as location, defender distance and shooter talent. But the Bulls have underperformed that shot quality by 11.1%, which ranks last by a mile. For context, the largest gap for any team over the full 2025-26 season was just 1.7% – so Chicago’s shotmaking is bound to improve.
That doesn’t mean I think the Bulls will reach the play-in tournament or anything so lofty. But I do believe that they’ll play more like a typical rebuilding team going forward, rather than losing every other game by blowout margins.
By Ben Golliver, Zach Kram / ESPN