By Pedro Orthez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-08 19:43:18
想要扭转2026年NBA总决赛的局势，或许需要一次天翻地覆的改变。
两场比赛，同一个故事
在本系列赛中，圣安东尼奥马刺曾两次建立起巨大的领先优势。但两次，这都没能转化为胜利。
两场比赛下来，马刺的表现足以在某些时间段掌控局面，但他们缺乏将优势保持到最后的纪律性。这种差距定义了迄今为止的总决赛。
尼克斯则将比赛简化到了最基本的要素，并且执行得更好。他们的三分火力主要来自三个可复制的来源：弧顶及两侧的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、主要埋伏在底角的OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)，以及作为节奏型射手的兰德里·沙梅特 (Landry Shamet)。
没有花哨的战术，只有极致的精准。
文班亚马难题
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在总决赛中的表现，以他的标准来看，一直不尽如人意——不仅体现在数据产出上，更体现在影响力上。
我将“脑震荡”和“二级恶意犯规”那两场比赛合并为一场计算，因此总决赛前共计16场比赛。
总决赛 vs. 季后赛其他阶段：
- 得分：27.5 vs 24.6
- 篮板：10.5 vs 11.4
- 盖帽：3.8 vs 3.5
- 助攻：2.0 vs 2.9
- 抢断：1.5 vs 1.0
- 失误：5.0 vs 2.9
- 个人犯规：2.0 vs 2.75
- 投篮命中率：40.5% vs 50.9%
- 三分命中率：26.7% vs 37%
- 罚球命中率：81% vs 87%
与之前的轮次相比，他的效率有所下降，失误增多，影响力也减弱了。直观感受也证实了这一点：统治力减弱，掌控比赛的绝对感降低，那些让比赛走势随他而变的时刻也变少了。
从尼克斯的角度来看，唐斯的外线投射（三分命中率43%）拉开了马刺的防守空间，因为他的投篮融入了球队的战术结构，有节奏、有平衡，且充满选择。唐斯在弧顶的超远三分极具节奏感，并且他始终保持着三重威胁的选择，这让他能够完成一些令人印象深刻的突破冲击篮筐，将文班甩在身后，或者及时将球传给队友（场均4次助攻）。
而在另一端，文班亚马的出手看起来更像是得分后卫或控球后卫会投的三分，尤其是像库里那样的投篮。文班亚马的三分球往往是高难度尝试，一旦投丢，就会导致整个进攻回合断节。
尼克斯占优的对位
唐斯有效地限制了文班亚马。他拥有足够的移动能力来保持防守位置，防守端纪律性强，且身材足够高大进行干扰。唐斯减少了那些“愚蠢”的犯规，使其不再成为困扰，从而能够整场比赛保持防守压迫感。
乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 限制了马刺的二次进攻机会。这些看似微小的个体胜利，累积起来却意义重大。其结果就是，文班亚马看起来变得可以被限制了。
文班的麻烦不仅存在于三分线外，还体现在他面框单打（ISO）的时候。过多的运球导致了失误和艰难的出手，尤其是在第一场比赛中。
他成长道路上的悖论
15岁时，文班亚马拒绝了巴塞罗那青年队的邀请。他解释说，自己不想被局限在传统中锋的角色中。他选择了一条建立在全面性、控球、投篮和自由度之上的成长之路。文班非常感激他在楠泰尔青年队时期的教练们，正是他们给予了他这种尝试和开发同身高球员中罕见技能的自由。
除了独特的技能包之外，文班亚马还展现出了同龄人中罕见的成熟度、求胜欲和职业态度。然而，马刺死忠球迷近三年来深知的一点是，文班独特的天赋也伴随着一些弊端。在某些比赛中，文班会投太多三分，或者在人堆中进行过多的运球。
这条道路创造了非凡的上限，但也带来了博弈。他的打法建立在多样选择而非自我约束之上。在过去的三个赛季里，这种平衡向“上限”倾斜。但在本系列赛中，天平发生了倾斜。不幸的是，对于文班和马刺来说，尼克斯显然拿捏住了这一点，并且奏效了。
青年队教练和家人的开明态度支持了他独特的成长轨迹。现在，或许是时候让文班亚马自己也展现出开放的心态，并做出一些改变了。
曾经赋予他优势的特质，如今可能需要重新调整。
0-2落后，马刺已经没有犯错的空间。他们的上限完全取决于文班亚马。
“大基本功”式的调整。非长远之计，而是立竿见影。
自从文班亚马加入马刺以来，许多球迷一直在思考他可以或应该在自己的武器库中加入什么样的招牌动作。在某些比赛中，他看起来势不可挡；而在另一些比赛中，他看起来更像是一个凡人，而非“外星人”。
在距离被横扫仅剩2场比赛的关头，已经没有时间去开发贾巴尔的天勾或蒂米的打板投篮了。许多球迷一直渴望看到这些，但要在训练馆里练成并精通这些动作需要成百上千个小时。
在我看来，文班亚马需要做出的微调，对他而言已经是一次重大的“大基本功”式转变。文班需要落入低位，不是面框，而是背身单打防守者和篮筐。我们总能听到有人说文班不够强壮，无法在低位要到位置。但在看到他与克林根、戈贝尔、兰德尔、哈滕施泰因、霍姆格伦、多尔特、唐斯和罗宾逊等人的对抗后，我并不认同这种说法。
文班已经能够在高位顺利接球，那就没有理由不能在低位要位。他有这样做的决心。在这里，在低位要到更深的位置是关键所在。
第二个微调是，在接球后，他需要保持身体的高度。到目前为止，总决赛裁判的吹罚尺度要好于他在西部季后赛中所经历的，他们会在一定程度上保护他。否则，当他接球时，他往往会习惯性地降低重心以防被推搡，但这让他瞬间失去了身高优势。
最后的调整是，文班需要用起他的“大梦”脚步。文班的移动能力和臂展在世界上同等身高的球员中无人能及。十有八九他能在这场对决中胜出，并且因为距离篮筐更近而获得得分机会。
0-2落后，只有彻底的调整才能改变历史的走向，而这必须由文班亚马来做出。教练组甚至可以考虑在短时间内派上梅森·普拉姆利 (Mason Plumlee)，在文班要位时在禁区内提供强壮的肉盾对抗。
我认为，如果没有文班打出一场40分20篮板级别的比赛，马刺现在很难赢下总决赛。要做到这一点，特别是在麦迪逊广场花园，他需要证明自己能够根据形势调整自己的技术打法。
简单，却至关重要。
道路依然存在。虽然狭窄，但确实可行。
如果文班亚马能够化繁为简、在内线站稳脚跟并展现统治力，系列赛的局势就会改变。否则，一切都无从谈起。
马刺抢七夺冠。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Victor Wembanyama and the “Big Fundamental” Adjustment
Victor Wembanyama and the “Big Fundamental” Adjustment
A tectonic shift may be required to change the course of the 2026 NBA Finals
Two Games, Same Story
Twice in this series, San Antonio has built significant leads. Twice, it hasn’t mattered.
Through two games, the Spurs have been good enough to control stretches but not disciplined enough to finish them. That distinction has defined the Finals so far.
The Knicks have reduced the game to its simplest elements and executed them better. Their three-point production comes from three repeatable sources: Karl-Anthony Towns above the break, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges mainly in the corners, and Landry Shamet as a rhythm shooter.
Nothing exotic. Just precision.
The Wembanyama Problem
Victor Wembanyama’s Finals performance has, by his standards, been underwhelming, not just in output, but in impact.
I have aggregated the “concussion” and the “flagrant 2” games into one, thus counting 16 games pre-Finals.
Finals vs. rest of the post season:
Points: 27.5 vs 24.6
- Rebounds: 10.5 vs 11.4
- Blocks: 3.8 vs 3.5
- Assists: 2.0 vs 2.9
- Steals: 1.5 vs 1.0
- Turnovers: 5.0 vs 2.9
- PF: 2.0 vs 2.75
- FG%: 40.5% vs 50.9%
- 3PT%: 26.7% vs 37%
- FT%: 81% vs 87%
Compared to earlier rounds, his efficiency is down, turnovers are up, and his influence has diminished. The eye test confirms it: less force, less inevitability, fewer moments where the game bends around him.
From the Knicks’ perspective, Towns’ shooting (43% from deep) stretches the Spurs’ defense because it is embedded in structure, rhythmic, balanced, with options. KAT’s long threes, top of the key, are in rhythm and he always maintain his triple-threat options, which has led to some impressive drives to the rim leaving Vic behind, or he timely passes the ball (4 assists per game) to his teammates.
On the other end, Victor’s attempts look like the threes a SG or a PG would take, especially someone like Curry. Wembanyama’s threes are often high difficulty attempts that disconnect possessions when they miss.
A Matchup the Knicks Are Winning
Karl-Anthony Towns has contained Wembanyama effectively. He is mobile enough to stay in front, disciplined with fouls, and large enough to contest. KAT has reduced his “silly” fouls to a point where it doesn’t impact him anymore and he can maintain defensive pressure for 48 minutes.
Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson have limited second chances. Individually small wins, collectively significant. The result is a version of Wembanyama that feels manageable.
Vic’s troubles are not just behind the 3-point line, they can also be found in ISO situations when he faces the basket. Too many dribbles leading to turnovers and difficult shot attempts, especially in Game 1.
The Paradox of His Development
At 15, Wembanyama turned down Barcelona’s academy offer. He explained he did not want to be confined to a traditional center role. He chose development built on versatility, ball-handling, shooting, and freedom. Vic has given his youth coaches at Nanterre a lot of credit for giving him this freedom to experiment and develop skills rarely seen in prospects of his height.
Beyond his unique skillsets, Victor Wembanyama has showed a maturity, a drive to succeed, and work ethics never seen before from such a young person. What die-hard Spurs fans have known for almost 3 years now, is that Vic’s unique abilities come with some downfalls. There have been games where Vic will shoot too many threes or will take too many dribbles in traffic.
That path created extraordinary upside, but also a tension. His game is built on optionality, not constraint. For three seasons, that balance favoured the upside. In this series, it has shifted.And unfortunately for Vic and the Spurs, the Knicks are clearly banking on this, and it’s working.
His youth coaches and his family’s open-mindedness supported his unique development. It might be time for Victor to demonstrate some open-mindedness of his own and make some changes.
What once gave him an edge may now require recalibration.
Down 0–2, the Spurs have no margin for error. Their ceiling runs through Wembanyama.
The “Big Fundamental” Adjustment. Not long-term. Immediate.
Since Victor Wembanyama joined the Spurs organization, many fans have been left wondering what kind of signature move, he could / should add to his arsenal. There are games where he seems unstoppable and others where he looks like a mere mortal rather than an Alien.
With 2 games left to avoid a sweep, there is no time to develop a Kareem Sky Hook or a Timmy Bank Shot. Many fans have been asking for something like this, but it would take hours in the gym to perfect such moves.
Victor’s incremental adjustment that I think is required would already be a Big Fundamental Shift for him. Vic needs to work in the low post, not facing the basket, but playing his back against his defender and the rim. We keep hearing that Vic is not strong enough to gain positioning in the low post. Well, after battling the likes of Clingan, Gobert, Randle, Hartenstein, Holmgren, Dort, KAT and Robinson, I disagree.
Vic has managed to get the ball in the high post; there is no reason he could not position himself in the low post. He has the will power to do so. Establishing deeper position in the low post is the key here.
Second incremental change, after receiving the ball, he needs to stay tall on the catch. So far, the Finals referees have been better than those he experienced in the Western Conference playoffs, they will protect him to some extent. Otherwise, when he receives the ball, he has a tendency to lower his center of gravity, to avoid to be pushed around, but he immediately loses his height advantage.
Final adjustment, Vic needs to use his Hakeem’s moves. Vic’s mobility and length are better than anybody of his height in the world. 9 times out 10 he would win this battle and would get a chance to score, being so much closer to the rim.
Down 2-0, only a drastic adjustment can change the course of history, and it must come from Victor Wembanayma. The coaching staff might even consider bringing Mason Plumlee for short sequences to add a banging body in the paint when Victor is establishing position.
I don’t think the Spurs can now win the Finals without a 40-20 game from Vic. To pull this off, especially at the Madison Square Garden, he needs to demonstrate he can adjust his skillset to the circumstances.
Simple, but critical.
There is still a path. Narrow, but real.
If Wembanyama simplifies, anchors, and imposes himself, the series changes. Until it doesn’t.
Spurs in seven.
By Pedro Orthez, via Pounding The Rock