By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-06-03 20:00:00
马刺队在常规赛期间的阵容深度是他们的强项之一，有多达11名现役球员在不同阶段进入过轮换阵容。这其中包括老将哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和新秀卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 在赛季中期互换位置，但即使在轮换缩减的情况下，他们两人在季后赛中仍会根据具体情况被派上场（尽管出场时间受到严格限制）。
尽管阵容深度如此之厚，但随着季后赛的推进，马刺队的比赛走向越来越取决于维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的表现。当他表现神勇时，马刺队通常能赢；但当他表现仅仅是“优秀”却得不到太多帮手时（或者，你懂的，因为某些他自身或非自身原因不得不离场时），马刺队就会陷入挣扎。如今，我们已经走到了总决赛，面对的是一支同样阵容深厚且实力更强的尼克斯队，每个人都必须挺身而出。
在今年季后赛的某些时刻，马刺队几乎每个人都曾挺身而出，但有一位球员，当他打出爆发表现时，马刺队似乎受益最大，那就是新秀后卫迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)。在我们在对阵雷霆队的抢七大战后发表的《加罚》一文中，针对“谁是仅次于文班亚马的马刺第二重要球员”这一问题，我的部分回答如下：
我要冒昧地预测一下（这可能和大家的看法都不同），我认为是哈珀，因为他是这群人中最大的变数。除了文班之外，每场比赛最大的决定性因素或许就是当他下场休息时，马刺队的替补席能否顶住。而当哈珀在第二场比赛的大部分时间里缺阵，或者在第三到五场因内收肌酸痛而表现不佳时，马刺队需要克服的困难要大得多。当他在第一场（不可否认他那场首发了）、第六场和第七场状态在线时，马刺队几乎全程都占据着上风。
这让我开始思考，尽管马刺队在这轮系列赛中有很多X因素，但哈珀可能是最关键的一个，就像他在对阵雷霆时那样。X因素被定义为“具有强烈但不可预测影响的环境、特质或人”，这无疑非常适用于哈珀。他是一名新秀，尽管拥有超越年龄的沉稳与成熟，但他依然会有起伏，但或许没有什么比他在对阵雷霆时发挥最佳的时刻更能体现他的价值了，在面对尼克斯时也必然如此。
这并不是说他需要成为仅次于文班的队内第二好球员或得分王，亦或是完全接管比赛，但他需要在德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和/或斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 下场休息时，帮助第二阵容保持进攻流畅，并像他在第七场比赛中所做的那样，持续投进关键且及时的进球。如前所述，当他状态在线时，马刺队就拥有优势；当他不在状态时，主力下场后马刺队就会陷入苦战。总决赛需要全员皆兵，尽管凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 获得了年度最佳第六人，但第二阵容的表现，乃至马刺队的命运，很大程度上都系于哈珀一身。
（作为额外佐证，FanDuel 体育博彩 将哈珀列为马刺队夺得总决赛 MVP 概率第四高的球员，仅次于文班、福克斯和卡斯尔。一个新秀替补球员能受到如此高的器重，这足以说明他的进步有多大。）
马刺队的其他X因素
朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) —— 在经历了火热的首轮系列赛后，尚帕尼的三分球命中率在过去两轮中起伏不定，而他的影响力非常显而易见。在球队赢下的12场比赛中，他的三分命中率达到了40%；而在输掉的6场比赛中，这一数字仅为29.8%。尼克斯队几乎每一位轮换球员都是水准之上的三分投手，这可能是他们最大的优势。马刺队需要每个人在这方面都站出来，尤其是他们最好的投手，他需要通过投进三分来帮助防止文班被包夹，或者在文班被包夹时利用好机会——把球投进。
德阿隆·福克斯的脚踝 —— 作为一名全明星球员，福克斯本人并不是X因素，但他一瘸一拐的脚踝让他成为了变数。在第二轮对阵明尼苏达的比赛中遭遇高位踝关节扭伤后，他缺席了对阵雷霆的第一场和第二场比赛，得益于哈珀在第一场比赛中的出色发挥，马刺队在这两场比赛中和对手平分秋色。然而，直到第六场或第七场，他看起来才恢复正常。虽然马刺队在那段时间里确实很想念他的突破能力和稳健的自主得分能力，但他仅仅站在场上就能够减少球队的失误。他们至少需要他再次做到这一点，但他越接近最健康的自己，情况就越好。
凯尔登·约翰逊 —— 毋庸置疑，KJ在今年季后赛中遭遇了“奖项魔咒”（即当一名球员获奖后，他在季后赛中的表现就会下滑——这种魔咒尤其喜欢攻击常规赛MVP）。与哈珀以及下面将要提到的另一位球员类似，马刺队需要替补席在文班（以及福克斯、卡斯尔等）下场休息的关键时间里有所发挥。KJ在第七场比赛第四节的进攻爆发中完成了一些自我救赎，在整个总决赛期间，马刺队都需要他展现出年度最佳第六人的风采。
卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) —— 科内特在文班下场的那一刻起，就已经并且将继续成为对手突破针对的目标，因为对手知道这些时间有多么宝贵。他并不是没有文班在场的时间里球队正负值大都为负的唯一原因，但无论公平与否，他都是承担这一重担的人。和KJ一样，希望他在第七场比赛中的救赎表现能够延续下去。由于尼克斯队同样有能力打双塔，我们可能也会看到一些“法国香草”组合（文班与科内特双塔）的登场时间，所以这是他需要做好准备的另一种情况，并且可能会成为一个巨大的影响因素。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Why Dylan Harper could be the X factor in the NBA Finals
Why Dylan Harper could be the X factor in the NBA Finals
The Spurs depth in the regular season was one of their strengths, with up to 11 current players having rotation spots at some point or another. That includes veteran Harrison Barnes and rookie Carter Bryant swapping places midseason, but even as the rotation has shortened, they have both still been situationally used in the playoffs (albeit in short leashes).
Despite all that depth, how the game has gone for the Spurs has depended more and more on how Victor Wembanyama has performed as the playoffs progress. When he’s great, the Spurs usually win, but when he’s merely “good” but doesn’t get a lot of help (or, you know, has to leave the game for reasons he either did or didn’t cause), the Spurs have struggled. Now that we have reached the NBA Finals against a similarly deep and stronger Knicks team, everyone will have to step up.
The Spurs have seen almost everyone step up at some point or another in these playoffs, but there’s one player they seem to benefit the most from when he has a big game, and that’s rookie guard Dylan Harper. In our In the Bonus article from after Game 7 against the Thunder, this was part of my answer to the question, “Who was the second most important Spur” after Victor Wembanyama:
I’m going to go out on a limb (and probably differ from everyone else) and say Harper because he is the biggest wildcard of the group. Outside of Wemby, perhaps the biggest deciding factor in each game was if the Spurs’ bench would hold on when he sat, and when Harper was out for most of Game 2 or ineffective from games 3-5 with the sore adductor, it was a much bigger hurdle for them to overcome. When he was on point in games 1 (which he admittedly started), 6 and 7, the Spurs had the upper hand almost the entire time.
This got me to thinking, as many X factors as the Spurs have in this series, Harper could be the most important one, just like he was against OKC. An X factor is defined as “a circumstance, quality, or person that has a strong but unpredictable influence,” and that certainly applies to Harper. He’s a rookie, and despite having a poise and maturity level beyond his years, he‘s still going to have his ups and downs, but perhaps nothing showed his value more than when he was at his best against the Thunder, and that is bound to be the case against the Knicks as well.
None of this is to say he needs to be their second best player or leading scorer after Wemby or completely take over games, but he needs to help keep the offense flowing for the second unit when De’Aaron Fox and/or Stephon Castle sits and keep hitting big, timely shots like he did in Game 7. As previously stated, when he’s been on, the Spurs have had the advantage; when he isn’t, they suffer when the starters sit. The Finals is all hands on deck, and even though Keldon Johnson was Sixth Man of the Year, the second unit’s performance and perhaps the Spurs’ fate begins and ends with Harper.
(For added proof, FanDuel Sportsbook has Harper as 4th most likely Spur to win Finals MVP behind Wemby, Fox and Castle. How far has he come that a rookie bench player is looked so highly upon?)
Other Spurs X Factors
Julian Champagnie — After a hot first round, Champagnie’s three-point shooting has been up and down in the last two rounds, and his impact is pretty clear. In their 12 wins, he has shot 40% from three; in their six loss, just 29.8%. Almost every rotation player on the Knicks is an above average three-point shooter, which could be their biggest advantage. The Spurs will need everyone to step up in that regard, especially their best shooter, who needs to either help prevent double-teams on Wemby by making shots or capitalize off them — by making shots.
De’Aaron Fox’s ankle — As an All-Star, Fox himself is not a X Factor, but his gimpy ankle turns him into one. After suffering a high ankle sprain in the second round against Minnesota, he missed Games 1 and 2 against the Thunder, which the Spurs split thanks to a fantastic performance from Harper in Game 1. However, it took him until about Game 6 or 7 to look right again, but while the Spurs certainly missed his slashing ability and automatic offense in that time frame, his mere presence was able keep the turnovers down. They’ll need that at a minimum from him again, but the closer he can get to the healthiest version of himself, the better.
Keldon Johnson — It goes without saying that KJ has suffered the Curse of the Award in these playoffs (a.k.a. when a player wins something, then their production in the postseason suffers — it’s especially known to attack MVP’s). Similar to Harper and another player to be listed below, the Spurs need the bench to perform in those crucial non-Wemby (and Fox, Castle, etc.) minutes. KJ got some redemption with an offensive explosion in the fourth quarter of Game 7, and they’ll need of his Sixth Man of the Year form throughout the Finals.
Luke Kornet — Kornet has and will continue to be the target of driving lanes the instant Wemby sits because opponents know how valuable those minutes are. He’s not the only reason the non-Wemby minutes have been largely negative, but he’s the one carrying the burden, fairly or not. Like KJ, hopefully his redemption from Game 7 carries over. We may also get some French Vanilla minutes since the Knicks are equally as capable of playing two bigs, so that’s another scenario he needs to be ready for and could be a huge factor.
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock