By Doug Kezirian | The Athletic, 2026-06-03 08:00:12
“我们知道接下来会发生什么。我们知道他们会在每场比赛中都押注尼克斯作为下盘，并赌他们夺冠，”DraftKings博彩公司主管约翰尼·阿维洛 (Johnny Avello) 告诉The Athletic。
阿维洛土生土长于纽约州波基普西市，在尼克斯上一次夺冠后不久的20世纪70年代末移居拉斯维加斯。他也是众多为尼克斯对阵圣安东尼奥马刺的NBA总决赛而兴奋不已的纽约球迷之一。该系列赛将于周三开打，这对NBA来说是一场梦幻对决，但对博彩公司来说却是一场噩梦。
“这可能是历史上投注额最高的总决赛之一，”阿维洛说道。
本届总决赛将呈现鲜明的对比：一边是代表着最大电视市场、场边一线明星云集的尼克斯，另一边则是低调内敛、由22岁且身高7英尺4英寸的超级巨星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 领衔的马刺。两队的共同点在于，他们的逆袭之路交汇在了一起，给庄家制造了一个双输的局面。
“我们最不希望看到这两支球队相遇，因为事已至此，对我们来说没有任何好结果，”阿维洛说道。
马刺和尼克斯是几乎每家博彩公司底线上面临的最大赔付风险点，因为在常规赛的大部分时间里，两支球队的夺冠赔率都属于冷门。此外，占领了客场球馆并在曼哈顿街头庆祝季后赛胜利的尼克斯球迷群体，在下注时也是完全凭感情用事。
“对客户而言，尼克斯一直是一支热门球队，他们一路杀进总决赛更是放大了这一点，”一位FanDuel的交易员通过电子邮件表示。“纽约是我们这里夺冠投注额最高的球队。”
任何博彩公司在面对赔付风险时的优势在于，庄家仍然保留了押在其余29支被淘汰球队上的所有赌资。然而，如果马刺或尼克斯的高赔率注单最终兑现，或者有数量极其庞大的中等额度季后赛投注成功变现，博彩公司最终仍可能面临整体净亏损。
“不出所料，尼克斯在纽约州的投注额非常高，无论是单场比赛还是长线盘口，都超过了其他任何一个州，”凯撒博彩 (Caesars Sportsbook) 首席篮球操盘手大卫·利伯曼 (David Lieberman) 表示。“他们是一个赔付风险点，仅次于马刺，但正在迅速逼近。”
马刺在赛季开始前的夺冠赔率为+6500，属于不折不扣的冷门，但他们逐渐撕掉了这个标签，在整个季后赛中的表现超出了其常规赛的数据指标，并让质疑者闭嘴。尼克斯在季前曾是东部最被看好的球队之一，但进入季后赛时的夺冠赔率仍为+2200，随后他们便开启了这段统治级的征程。
在过去的一个月里，纽约横扫了他们前进道路上的每一个对手，包括横扫费城76人和克利夫兰骑士。尼克斯目前正处于11连胜之中（让分盘10胜1负），场均净胜对手23.8分，这创下了NBA常规赛或季后赛历史上任意连续11场比赛的最大净胜分纪录。
那么，专家们是应该更看重整个赛季更大样本量的数据，还是更看重目前这支投篮命中率53.3%、三分命中率41.3%、净效率值达到荒谬的+24.5的全新尼克斯？
“这支球队的进攻一直势不可挡。我不会向市场妥协，”Circa Sports的NBA操盘手、同时也是尼克斯铁杆球迷的贾斯汀·特里卡里科 (Justin Tricarico) 告诉The Athletic。
“（将他们的进攻发起点放在卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 身上）给了我以某种特定方式开盘的信心。他们的进攻完全被盘活了。”
同样，圣安东尼奥的实力评级也有所提升。显然，淘汰卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马雷霆改善了人们对他们的看法，在抢七大战中，马刺在客场仅被让3.5分——而相比之下，第一场和第二场的让分高达7.5分。
“马刺是让我们陷入困境的球队。我对此非常自责。这一整年我都在后悔，”特里卡里科说道，他指的是自己的团队一再不愿将马刺的赔率降到足以阻止投注者的水平。“我只是没想到文班今年能成长得这么快。”
如果马刺以季前+6500的赔率最终夺冠，那将创下一项纪录。目前的纪录由2014-15赛季的勇士保持，当时的赔率为+3500。
对马刺持怀疑态度的人会指出雷霆的伤病问题，这迫使雷霆在几乎整个西部决赛中都缺少了全明星球员杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和关键替补阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)。又或者，这仅仅是因为尼克斯在正确的时间达到了巅峰。
“冒着暴露我球迷身份的风险——作为季票持有者，我的球迷生涯已经跨越了五个不同的十年——尼克斯在这波11连胜中的表现已经让他们跃升至我实力评级的首位，”资深职业博彩玩家保罗·博维 (Paul Bovi) 通过私信表示。“他们显然正处于本赛季的最佳状态，应该能在六场之内解决任何一个对手。”
在周三的第一场比赛中，尼克斯在客场受让4.5分，系列赛夺冠赔率为+160；而马刺则是-200的夺冠热门。
这与纽约上一次在1999年打进总决赛时的情况大相境庭，当时蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan)、大卫·罗宾逊 (David Robinson) 领衔的马刺是-900的压倒性热门，并在五场比赛内击败了拥有阿兰·休斯顿 (Allan Houston)、拉特里尔·斯普雷威尔 (Latrell Sprewell) 但缺少了帕特里克·尤因 (Patrick Ewing) 的尼克斯夺冠。即使是饱经沧桑的尼克斯球迷也承认，这次重逢更加势均力敌——而这支蓝橙军团拥有的绝不仅仅是爆冷的一线生机。
但下盘的身份并未阻止投注者涌入这股尼克斯热潮。在FanDuel，目前有65%的投注额押在尼克斯赢得系列赛上。
在博彩公司严阵以待防范风暴的同时，尼克斯球迷则在祈祷属于他们的王朝统治降临。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：How Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals put sportsbooks into a lose-lose scenario
How Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals put sportsbooks into a lose-lose scenario
“We know what’s coming. We know they’re going to bet the Knicks as ‘dogs in each game and to win the whole thing,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic.
Avello, a Poughkeepsie, N.Y., native who moved to Las Vegas in the late 1970s soon after they won their last championship, is among the throngs of New York Knicks fans excited for the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs. The series starts Wednesday, and it’s a dream matchup for the NBA and a nightmare for sportsbooks.
“It could be one of the most heavily-bet Finals ever,” Avello said.
The Finals will feature the stark contrast of the Knicks, representing the top television market with A-list celebrities courtside, against the Spurs, understated yet led by a 7-foot-4, 22-year-old superstar in Victor Wembanyama. The common ground is their underdog paths that have converged to create a lose-lose scenario for the house.
“We did not want those two teams to meet because there’s no good outcome for us at this point,” Avello said.
The Spurs and Knicks represented the two most significant liabilities to almost every sportsbook’s bottom line, given each team had long-shot title odds throughout most of the regular season. Plus, the Knicks fan base that took over road arenas and celebrated playoff wins in the streets of Manhattan also bet with their hearts.
“The Knicks are always a popular team for customers, and their run to the Finals has only magnified that, a FanDuel trader said via email. “New York is our most-bet team to win the championship.”
The advantage with any sportsbook’s liability is the house still keeps all the money wagered on the 29 eliminated teams. However, a book can still finish with an overall net negative if Spurs or Knicks long-shot tickets hit or a ridiculously high volume of decent-sized postseason wagers cash.
“Knicks are unsurprisingly very heavily bet in New York, more so than any other state, both per game and in the futures,” Caesars Sportsbook lead basketball oddsmaker David Lieberman said. “They are a liability, second to the Spurs but catching up quickly.”
The Spurs entered the year as long shots at +6500, but gradually shed that label, outperforming their regular-season metrics and silencing doubters throughout the postseason. The Knicks were among the preseason favorites in the Eastern Conference, but entered the playoffs at +2200 before going on this dominant run.
New York has destroyed everyone in its path over the past month, sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks are riding an 11-game win streak (10-1 against the spread), defeating opponents by a 23.8 points per game margin that ranks as the largest over any 11-game stretch in NBA regular-season or postseason history.
So, should experts place more weight on a larger sample size of the entire season or this current version that has shot 53.3 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from deep – good for an absurd net rating of +24.5?
“This offense has been a juggernaut. I am not bending to the market,” Circa Sports NBA oddsmaker and lifelong Knicks fan Justin Tricarico told The Athletic. “(Running their offense through Karl-Anthony Towns) gave me the confidence to book a certain way. The offense just completely opened up.”
Similarly, San Antonio’s power rating has also increased. Obviously eliminating the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder improves perception, but the Spurs were only 3.5-point road underdogs in Game 7 – compared to spreads of 7.5 in Games 1 and 2.
“The Spurs are the team that we’re in trouble with. I kick myself about it. I have had regrets about it all year,” Tricarico said, speaking to his team’s repeated reluctance to lower San Antonio’s odds enough to deter bettors. “I just didn’t see the Wemby thing ascending this year.”
If San Antonio wins at its preseason odds of +6500, it would be a record. The current mark is the Warriors at +3500 in 2014-15.
Spurs skeptics will point to OKC’s injuries, forcing the Thunder to play without All-Star Jalen Williams and key reserve Ajay Mitchell nearly the entire Western Conference finals. Or maybe this is simply more about the Knicks peaking at the right time.
“At the risk of exposing my fanhood, which has carried me through five separate decades as a season ticket holder, the Knicks’ play over this 11-game winning streak has catapulted them to the top of my power ratings,” veteran professional bettor Paul Bovi said via direct message. “They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season and should dispatch either opponent in six games.”
The Knicks are 4.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 on Wednesday and +160 on the series price; San Antonio is a -200 favorite.
That’s a far cry from New York’s last Finals trip in 1999, when Tim Duncan, David Robinson and San Antonio were -900 favorites and won the title in five games over Allan Houston, Latrell Sprewell and the Patrick Ewing-less Knicks. Even jaded Knicks fans concede this rematch is more balanced – and the orange and blue have much more than a puncher’s chance.
But the underdog status hasn’t deterred bettors from piling onto Knicks fever. At FanDuel, 65 percent of the handle is currently on the Knicks to win the series.
As sportsbooks brace for the storm, Knicks fans pray for reign.
By Doug Kezirian, via The Athletic