By Doug Kezirian | The Athletic, 2026-06-03 08:00:12
《The Athletic》将为您带来2026年NBA总决赛第一场尼克斯对阵马刺的实时报道。
“我们很清楚接下来会发生什么。我们知道彩民们会在每场比赛中都押注处于下风的尼克斯，并赌他们最终夺冠，”DraftKings体育博彩总监约翰尼·阿维洛 (Johnny Avello) 在接受《The Athletic》采访时表示。
阿维洛土生土长于纽约州波基普西市，在20世纪70年代末（尼克斯上一次夺冠后不久）搬到了拉斯维加斯。他也是众多为纽约尼克斯挺进总决赛对阵圣安东尼奥马刺而兴奋不已的纽约球迷之一。这轮系列赛将于周三开打，对NBA联盟来说这是一场梦幻对决，但对博彩公司而言，却是一场噩梦。
“这可能会是历史上投注额最高的总决赛之一，”阿维洛说道。
本届总决赛将呈现出鲜明的对比：一边是代表着全美最大电视市场、场边星光熠熠的尼克斯；另一边则是行事低调，却由身高7英尺4英寸、年仅22岁的超级巨星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 领衔的马刺。两队的共同点在于，他们都是一路逆袭杀入总决赛的，而这两条逆袭之路的交汇，却给庄家制造了一个两头赔钱的尴尬境地。
“我们真不希望这两支球队相遇，因为事到如今，对我们来说已经没有任何好结果了，”阿维洛说。
马刺和尼克斯几乎是所有博彩公司账面上的最大亏损源，因为在常规赛的大部分时间里，这两支球队的夺冠赔率都极高（属于冷门）。此外，那些占领了客场球馆、在曼哈顿街头疯狂庆祝季后赛胜利的尼克斯铁粉们，在投注时也完全是凭感情下注。
“对彩民来说，尼克斯一直是一支热门球队，他们一路杀进总决赛更是放大了这种热度，”FanDuel的一位交易员在电子邮件中表示。“纽约是我们这里夺冠投注量最大的球队。”
任何博彩公司在面对赔付风险时的优势在于，庄家仍然可以吃掉押在其余29支已被淘汰球队身上的所有本金。然而，如果马刺或尼克斯的冷门夺冠彩票最终兑现，或者有大量金额不菲的季后赛投注成功套现，博彩公司最终仍可能面临整体净亏损的局面。
“不出所料，尼克斯在纽约州的投注额非常巨大，远超其他任何一个州，无论是单场比赛还是夺冠长线盘，”凯撒体育博彩首席篮球操盘手大卫·利伯曼 (David Lieberman) 表示。“他们是我们的主要亏损源，目前仅次于马刺，但正在迅速赶超。”
马刺在赛季开始前的夺冠赔率高达+6500（属于超级冷门），但他们逐渐撕掉了这个标签，不仅常规赛表现超出了各项高阶指标的预期，还在整个季后赛中让质疑者闭嘴。尼克斯虽然在季前被视为东部热门之一，但在进入季后赛时，他们的夺冠赔率依然高达+2200，随后他们便开启了这段统治级的征程。
在过去的一个月里，纽约横扫了他们前进道路上的所有对手，包括横扫费城76人和克利夫兰骑士。尼克斯目前正处于11连胜之中（让分盘战绩为10胜1负），场均净胜对手23.8分，这创下了NBA历史上（无论是常规赛还是季后赛）任意连续11场比赛的最大场均净胜分纪录。
那么，专家们是应该更看重整个赛季更大样本的数据，还是应该更看重眼前这支投篮命中率53.3%、三分命中率41.3%、净效率值达到惊人的+24.5的全新尼克斯？
“这支球队的进攻简直势不可挡。我绝不会向市场妥协，”Circa Sports的NBA操盘手、同时也是尼克斯铁杆球迷的贾斯汀·特里卡里科 (Justin Tricarico) 告诉《The Athletic》。 “（让进攻围绕卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 展开）给了我以特定方式开盘的信心。他们的进攻空间被彻底拉开了。”
与此同时，圣安东尼奥马刺的战力指数也有所提升。显而易见，淘汰卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆提升了外界对他们的看好程度。在双方的抢七大战中，马刺在客场仅受让3.5分——而在系列赛的第一和第二场，让分盘口还高达7.5分。
“马刺才是让我们陷入麻烦的球队。我真是直拍大腿，这一整年我都在为此后悔，”特里卡里科在谈到他的团队一直不愿大幅降低马刺的赔率以劝退彩民时说道。“我只是没想到文班今年能崛起得如此迅速。”
如果马刺以季前+6500的赔率最终夺冠，那将创造历史纪录。目前的纪录由2014-15赛季的金州勇士保持，他们当年的季前夺冠赔率为+3500。
质疑马刺的人会指出雷霆遭遇的伤病问题——这迫使雷霆在几乎整个西部决赛中都缺少了全明星球员杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和关键替补阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)。又或者，这纯粹是因为尼克斯在最正确的时刻迎来了巅峰状态。
“冒着暴露我球迷身份的风险——作为季票持有者，我的球迷生涯已经跨越了五个十年——尼克斯在这波11连胜中的表现已经让他们跃升至我战力指数的首位，”资深职业博彩玩家保罗·博维 (Paul Bovi) 通过私信表示。“显而易见，他们正处于本赛季的最佳状态，无论对阵哪个对手，他们都应该能在六场之内解决战斗。”
在周三进行的第一场比赛中，尼克斯在客场受让4.5分，系列赛夺冠赔率为+160；而马刺则是-200的热门。
这与纽约上一次在1999年杀入总决赛时的情景大相径庭。当时，由蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 和大卫·罗宾逊 (David Robinson) 领衔的马刺是-900的压倒性热门，并在五场比赛内击败了由阿兰·休斯顿 (Allan Houston)、拉特里尔·斯普雷威尔 (Latrell Sprewell) 坐镇但缺少了帕特里克·尤因 (Patrick Ewing) 的尼克斯，夺得总冠军。如今，即便是最悲观的尼克斯球迷也承认，这次重逢势均力敌——这支橙蓝军团绝不仅仅只有爆冷的一线生机。
但“下风者”的身份并没有阻止彩民们涌入这场尼克斯热潮。在FanDuel，目前有65%的投注额都押在尼克斯赢得系列赛上。
在博彩公司严阵以待防范风暴的同时，尼克斯球迷则在祈祷着称霸时代的降临。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：How Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals put sportsbooks into a lose-lose scenario
How Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals put sportsbooks into a lose-lose scenario
The Athletic has live coverage of Knicks vs. Spurs in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals.
“We know what’s coming. We know they’re going to bet the Knicks as ‘dogs in each game and to win the whole thing,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic.
Avello, a Poughkeepsie, N.Y., native who moved to Las Vegas in the late 1970s soon after they won their last championship, is among the throngs of New York Knicks fans excited for the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs. The series starts Wednesday, and it’s a dream matchup for the NBA and a nightmare for sportsbooks.
“It could be one of the most heavily-bet Finals ever,” Avello said.
The Finals will feature the stark contrast of the Knicks, representing the top television market with A-list celebrities courtside, against the Spurs, understated yet led by a 7-foot-4, 22-year-old superstar in Victor Wembanyama. The common ground is their underdog paths that have converged to create a lose-lose scenario for the house.
“We did not want those two teams to meet because there’s no good outcome for us at this point,” Avello said.
The Spurs and Knicks represented the two most significant liabilities to almost every sportsbook’s bottom line, given each team had long-shot title odds throughout most of the regular season. Plus, the Knicks fan base that took over road arenas and celebrated playoff wins in the streets of Manhattan also bet with their hearts.
“The Knicks are always a popular team for customers, and their run to the Finals has only magnified that, a FanDuel trader said via email. “New York is our most-bet team to win the championship.”
The advantage with any sportsbook’s liability is the house still keeps all the money wagered on the 29 eliminated teams. However, a book can still finish with an overall net negative if Spurs or Knicks long-shot tickets hit or a ridiculously high volume of decent-sized postseason wagers cash.
“Knicks are unsurprisingly very heavily bet in New York, more so than any other state, both per game and in the futures,” Caesars Sportsbook lead basketball oddsmaker David Lieberman said. “They are a liability, second to the Spurs but catching up quickly.”
The Spurs entered the year as long shots at +6500, but gradually shed that label, outperforming their regular-season metrics and silencing doubters throughout the postseason. The Knicks were among the preseason favorites in the Eastern Conference, but entered the playoffs at +2200 before going on this dominant run.
New York has destroyed everyone in its path over the past month, sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks are riding an 11-game win streak (10-1 against the spread), defeating opponents by a 23.8 points per game margin that ranks as the largest over any 11-game stretch in NBA regular-season or postseason history.
So, should experts place more weight on a larger sample size of the entire season or this current version that has shot 53.3 percent from the field and 41.3 percent from deep – good for an absurd net rating of +24.5?
“This offense has been a juggernaut. I am not bending to the market,” Circa Sports NBA oddsmaker and lifelong Knicks fan Justin Tricarico told The Athletic. “(Running their offense through Karl-Anthony Towns) gave me the confidence to book a certain way. The offense just completely opened up.”
Similarly, San Antonio’s power rating has also increased. Obviously eliminating the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder improves perception, but the Spurs were only 3.5-point road underdogs in Game 7 – compared to spreads of 7.5 in Games 1 and 2.
“The Spurs are the team that we’re in trouble with. I kick myself about it. I have had regrets about it all year,” Tricarico said, speaking to his team’s repeated reluctance to lower San Antonio’s odds enough to deter bettors. “I just didn’t see the Wemby thing ascending this year.”
If San Antonio wins at its preseason odds of +6500, it would be a record. The current mark is the Warriors at +3500 in 2014-15.
Spurs skeptics will point to OKC’s injuries, forcing the Thunder to play without All-Star Jalen Williams and key reserve Ajay Mitchell nearly the entire Western Conference finals. Or maybe this is simply more about the Knicks peaking at the right time.
“At the risk of exposing my fanhood, which has carried me through five separate decades as a season ticket holder, the Knicks’ play over this 11-game winning streak has catapulted them to the top of my power ratings,” veteran professional bettor Paul Bovi said via direct message. “They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season and should dispatch either opponent in six games.”
The Knicks are 4.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 on Wednesday and +160 on the series price; San Antonio is a -200 favorite.
That’s a far cry from New York’s last Finals trip in 1999, when Tim Duncan, David Robinson and San Antonio were -900 favorites and won the title in five games over Allan Houston, Latrell Sprewell and the Patrick Ewing-less Knicks. Even jaded Knicks fans concede this rematch is more balanced – and the orange and blue have much more than a puncher’s chance.
But the underdog status hasn’t deterred bettors from piling onto Knicks fever. At FanDuel, 65 percent of the handle is currently on the Knicks to win the series.
As sportsbooks brace for the storm, Knicks fans pray for reign.
By Doug Kezirian, via The Athletic