By Eric Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-17 16:39:31
在常规赛期间，人们已经清楚地看到，斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 在其最佳新秀赛季之后，并没有遭遇所谓的“二年级魔咒”。年仅21岁的卡斯尔在几乎所有的基础数据上都取得了进步。从得分（场均14.7分提升至16.7分）、篮板（3.7个提升至5.3个）、助攻（4.1次提升至7.4次），到有效投篮命中率（47.6%提升至52.1%），卡斯尔的各项指标都在提升。当然，他那标志性的防守，依然让联盟其他球队感到恐惧。
这位双能卫的比赛似乎只有一个短板：投射。从第一年到第二年，他的三分命中率从28.5%上升到了33.2%；然而，这依然比联盟平均水平低了几个百分点。
接着，季后赛开始了。经过两轮系列赛，卡斯尔目前场均出手4.5次，三分命中率达到了惊人的44.0%。如果他能继续让对手为放空外线付出代价，那么这支马刺队的进攻上限将不可限量。唯一的问题是，他能否保持这种状态。
在联盟近年的历史上，有几位球员开发出了外线投篮，从完全不擅长投射转变为一旦被放空就极具威胁的射手。但要保持稳定性，那就是另一回事了。
以马刺队之前的对手为例。明尼苏达的安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 进入联盟时是一名极具潜力的年轻二号位，但他的三分投射略低于平均水平。随着时间的推移，他在这一基础上不断精进。在2024-2025赛季，他从赛季伊始就疯狂出手三分，全明星赛前场均出手超过10次，命中率高达41.4%。时间会证明他是否能保持稳定。他做到了。在过去的两个赛季中，他场均出手9.5次，命中率保持在39.6%。
爱德华兹是球员找到准星并保持下去的案例，但也有些球员即便能保持一整个赛季的高水准，最终还是会回归平均水平。凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 在这方面的表现就很有意思。
在约翰逊的第三个赛季，他看起来即将成为联盟顶尖射手之一。他在那个赛季结束时，三分命中率平均为39.8%，底角三分命中率更是高达49.5%。但这并没能持续下去，在过去的四个赛季里，他的平均命中率为33.8%。他依然是一名高效的球员，但现在体现在更多方面，而不仅仅是投射。
关键点在于，球员的投射能力是具有可塑性的。许多球员已经进化成了真正的威胁：比如爱德华兹、艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford) 和科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 等。而其他球员的投射表现则随年份波动：约翰逊、朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 甚至是勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 都经历过投射水平在平均线上下浮动的赛季和季后赛。
目前对卡斯尔来说，他正手感火热。而就其本质而言，季后赛的样本量非常小。唯一能说明他能否坚持下去的只有时间。到目前为止，他获得了很好的出手机会，并且投篮点选择得很好。他在季后赛投中的所有三分球中，防守者距离他至少都在四英尺之外，且绝大多数都是接球投篮。
如果他继续让那些放空他的球队付出代价，那么下一个阶段就是他如何应对防守端的贴身紧逼和更强力的扑防。他现在需要做的就是让对手为放空他而感到后悔。因为即使由于防守策略的改变导致他的命中率下降，那也意味着主教练米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 和马刺队拥有了更多可以调动的进攻杠杆。
卡斯尔已经展现出了冲击扑防的运动能力和寻找正确打法的篮球智商。即使因为被严密防守而导致球无法传到他在外线的手中，那也意味着德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 有更多的突破空间，而维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在低位也会少面对一名肉搏和纠缠他的防守者。
目前，马刺和卡斯尔只能稳扎稳打，但在进入分区决赛之际，他们没有表现出任何放缓的迹象。俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的防守既快速又敏锐，这将是他们迄今为止面临的最严峻的季后赛挑战。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Is Stephon Castle now an elite shooter?
Is Stephon Castle now an elite shooter?
Over the course of the regular season, it became clear Stephon Castle was not going to suffer a sophomore slump following up his Rookie of the Year season. Castle, at only 21 years old, improved in every nearly counting stat he could. From points (14.7 per game to 16.7), rebounds (3.7 to 5.3), assists (4.1 to 7.4), and effective field goal percentage (47.6 to 52.1), Castle improved his marks. And of course, his trademark trait, his defense, only continued to strike fear into the hearts of the rest of the league.
The combo-guard appeared to have only one flaw to his game: shooting. From his first to second year, he rose from 28.5 to 33.2 percent from three; however, it remained at several ticks below league average.
And then the playoffs happened. Through two rounds, Castle is now shooting at an outstanding 44.0 percent on 4.5 attempts per game. If he can continue to make teams pay from deep, there is no telling the limit on the offensive capabilities of this Spurs team. The only question is if he can keep it up.
Over the recent history of the league, there have been several players who have developed their perimeter shot, turning from complete non-shooters to deadly if left unguarded. Remaining consistent with it, though, that’s another story altogether.
For a recent example, look to the Spurs’ previous opponent. Anthony Edwards in Minnesota entered the league as a promising young two-guard, but his three-point shooting was slightly below average. Over time, he built on that. In the 2024-2025 season, he came out of the gate launching from deep, attempting over 10 per game and sinking them at a 41.4 percent clip pre-All-Star break. Time would tell if he could remain consistent. He did. Over his last two seasons, he remained at 39.6 percent at 9.5 attempts per game.
Edwards is a case of a player finding his shot and keeping it, but there are examples of a player finding a shot for even a full season, only to then regress towards the mean. Keldon Johnson has had an interesting relationship with his shot in this regard.
In Johnson’s third year, it was looking like he might be on the verge of turning into one of the league’s best shooters. He finished the season averaging 39.8 percent from three and 49.5 percent from the corners. But that wouldn’t stick, averaging 33.8 percent over the last four seasons. Still an efficient player, but now in more ways than just shooting.
The point is, players’ shooting abilities are malleable. Plenty have developed into real threats: Edwards, Al Horford, and Kawhi Leonard, to name a few. While others have a more fluctuant relationship with their shooting from year to year: Johnson, Jrue Holiday, and even LeBron James have had seasons and post-seasons drifting below and above average shooting.
Right now, for Castle, he has the hot hand. And by its nature, the playoffs are a very small sample size. The only thing that will tell if he can keep it up is time. So far, he’s gotten great looks, and he’s picking his spots well. All of his post-season threes are with a defender, at minimum, four feet away, and a good majority are from catch-and-shoot attempts.
If he continues to make teams pay for leaving him open, the next level will be how he adjusts to defenses guarding him closer and closing out harder on him. All he needs to do is make them pay for leaving him open. Because even if his percentage goes down due to defenses responding, that just means more levers to pull for Coach Mitch Johnson and the Spurs.
Castle has already shown that he has the athleticism to attack closeouts and the basketball IQ to find the right play. Even if his being more closely guarded leads to the ball not ending up in his hands on the perimeter, that only means more space for De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper to slash and one less defender to bang and hang on Victor Wembanyama down low.
For now, the Spurs and Castle can only take it one game at a time, but they show no signs of slowing down entering the conference finals. Oklahoma City’s defense is fast and twitchy; it will be their toughest playoff challenge yet.
By Eric Fritts, via Pounding The Rock