By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-14 18:29:22
2026年NBA季后赛第二轮的进程……非常耐人寻味。一方面，有两组系列赛显得乏善可陈：俄克拉荷马城雷霆队轻松（虽谈不上统治级）横扫了阵容不整的洛杉矶湖人队；而在东部，纽约尼克斯队则横扫了疲惫不堪、步履蹒跚的费城76人队。另一方面，两组惊心动魄（但并不“华丽”）的系列赛将在周五迎来第六场对决：圣安东尼奥马刺队目前以3-2领先明尼苏达森林狼队，而克利夫兰骑士队则在底特律赢下了第五场天王山之战，反超了底特律活塞队（部分归功于常规时间结束前一次具有争议的漏吹）。
马刺与森林狼的对决无疑是迄今为止最精彩的系列赛（当然，我可能带有主观偏见），这很大程度上归功于它的不可预测性、每场比赛不同的变数以及一些奇怪的极端情况。一切始于系列赛开始前没人知道安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 的身体状态，此后一切便一直朝着诡异的方向发展。例如在第一场比赛中，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 创下了12次盖帽的NBA季后赛纪录，你本以为这会让明尼苏达这样一支进攻乏力的球队陷入绝境，但结果却是，文班因为疯狂追逐盖帽导致体力透支，在进攻端毫无能量，一场历史级的防守表演最终却以马刺输球告终。
随后，文班在第四场比赛第二节早期被驱逐出场，这无疑是导致那场失利的最大因素。但在他打得合理、展现超级巨星本色的另外三场比赛中，马刺总计赢了对手74分，表现得既不过火也不划算。
然而，文班并不是决定比赛走势的唯一因素。当达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 这后场三人组中至少有两人打出水准以上的表现时，显然对球队大有裨益。此外，凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 终于迎来季后赛爆发，在森林狼反扑之际收割了第五场比赛，这对球队至关重要。但对于两支球队来说，或许最值得关注的统计数据是三分球。
双方在本系列赛的外线投射表现都很糟糕，森林狼156投53中（命中率34%），而马刺更差，166投55中（命中率33%）。考虑到丹特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 缺阵且爱德华兹带伤作战，森林狼在外线挣扎并不令人意外，但这对马刺来说是一个令人惊讶的数据。即便如此，你可能会想：“如果马刺在整个系列赛中只比森林狼多投进两个三分，且命中率基本持平，这怎么能算是一个关键因素呢？”
问得好，答案可能正如你所料：因为三分球影响了马刺其余进攻环节的方式。当你逐场拆解时，通常会发现一个规律。在赢下的三场比赛中，马刺三分球104投39中（包括在第二场投进16记三分，追平队史季后赛单场纪录），命中率为37.5%，高于他们常规赛36%的平均水平。总的来说，在这些赢球的场次中，他们比森林狼多进了7个三分球。唯一的例外是第三场，当时森林狼凭借纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 和阿约·多松姆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 替补席上的强劲火力多进了两个三分。有趣的是，马刺在那场比赛中依然取胜，因为他们在出手次数少7次的情况下准星更高。
因此，虽然马刺不一定靠三分球赢球，但他们已经证明了自己会因为三分球而输球。在第一场和第四场这两场失利中，他们的三分球总计66投16中（命中率24%）。其中包括第一场文班和福克斯合计12投0中，以及第四场福克斯、卡斯尔和朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 合计18投仅3中，而这竟然还占了全队命中数的一半。换句话说，虽然他们只要投出平均水平的三分就能赢下系列赛，但他们绝对能把自己投出局。通常，他们进攻最糟糕的阶段出现在打得仓促或焦虑时，这导致他们在进攻时间早期就抢投三分，通常以打铁告终，而不是耐心跑战术。
正如马刺在整个赛季所展示的那样，他们并不总是需要文班打出划时代的进攻表现才能赢球。相反，他们最好的进攻往往不是直接来自他，而是来自他对对手防守产生的巨大引力，这为队友创造了更多的空位机会和突破路径。一旦防守方必须尊重他的队友（这也要求队友们能投进球），那么文班获得轻松出手机会也就变得更加容易。
总的来说，你不能将三分球视为这组系列赛的决定性因素，因为双方表现相对均衡，且森林狼在每场比赛间的稳定性其实更高。然而，马刺对三分球的依赖程度略高，因此在投射出色的比赛中表现更好。虽然这看起来像是个“废话”观点，但重点在于，它在比赛中的实际影响力远比系列赛的总计数据所显示的要大。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Three-point shooting has played a bigger role for the Spurs vs. Wolves than it seems
Three-point shooting has played a bigger role for the Spurs vs. Wolves than it seems
The second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs has been … interesting. On one hand, there’s been two yawner series, with the Thunder comfortably (albeit not dominantly) sweeping the short-handed Lakers, while the Knicks swept a tired, limping 76ers team in the East. On the other, you have two thrilling (but not “beautiful”) series heading into Game 6’s on Friday, with the Spurs up 3-2 on the Timberwolves, while the Cavaliers upset the Pistons in Detroit in Game 5 to take the series lead (in part thanks to a controversial no-call at the end of regulation).
Spurs-Timberwolves has been by far the more interesting series (of course, I could be biased) in large part thanks to its unpredictability, differing factors in each game, and strange outliers. It all started with no one knowing that status of Anthony Edwards coming in, and everything has stayed weird since. For example in Game 1, Victor Wembanyama set an NBA playoffs record with 12 blocks, which you would think would doom an offensively-challenged team like Minnesota, but instead, the overexertion he caused himself chasing blocks robbed him of any energy on the offensive side, and a historic defensive performance still resulted in a Spurs loss.
Then, Wemby getting himself ejected early in the second quarter of Game 4 was arguably the biggest factor leading to that loss, but otherwise the Spurs have won the other three games in which he has stayed within himself by a combined 74 points, playing like the superstar he is without doing too much or too little.
However, Wemby isn’t the only factor that has helped determine how the games have gone. It certainly helps when at least two of the guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have above average games, and Keldon Johnson finally having his postseason breakout was huge in putting Game 5 away after Minnesota had rallied back, but perhaps the most interesting stat line to follow for both teams has been three-point shooting.
Both are shooting a poorly from the arc in this series, with the Wolves hitting 53-156 (34%) and the Spurs an even worse 55-166 (33%). It isn’t too surprising to see Minnesota struggling outside the arc with Donte DiVincenzo out and Edwards hobbled, but that is a surprising stat for the Spurs. Even so, you might be thinking, “But if the Spurs have only hit two more threes than the Wolves in the entire series and at close to the same rate, how is this a big factor?
Good question, and the answer is probably what you expect: because of the way it influences the rest of the Spurs offense. When you break it down game-by-game, it generally follows a pattern. In the three games they won, the Spurs hit 39-104 (including tying a franchise record for makes in a playoff game with 16 in Game 2) for 37.5%, which is better than the 36% they averaged in the regular season. Overall, they have hit a total of 7 more threes than the Wolves in those games, with the outlier being Game 3 when the Wolves hit two more thanks to strong shooting off the bench from Naz Reid and Ayo Dosunmo. Interestingly, the Spurs still won this game because they were more accurate in seven fewer attempts.
So while the Spurs aren’t necessarily winning by the three, they have shown they are capable of losing by it. In their two losses in Games 1 and 4, they shot a combined 16-66 from the three (24%), including a combined 0-12 showing from Wemby and Fox in Game 1 and Fox, Castle and Julian Champagnie combining to hit just 3-18 in Game 4, which still accounted for half of the team’s makes. In other words, while they can win this series by merely being average from three, they can certainly shoot their way out of it. Often, their worst stretches on offense come when they get rushed or anxious, which results in them jacking up threes early in the shot clock, usually missing, instead of running some offense.
As the Spurs have shown throughout the season, they don’t always need Wemby to be a generational offensive player to win games. Instead, their best offense often comes not directly from him, but rather by the gravitational pull he has on opposing defenses, which generates more open looks and driving lanes for his teammates. Once defenses have to respect his teammates (which also requires them to make their shots), then it becomes easier for him to get clean looks.
Overall, you can’t point to three-point shooting as the deciding factor of this series because it has been relatively even, and the Wolves have actually been more consistent from game-to-game. However, the Spurs are slightly more dependent on the three and therefore have been better in the games when they shoot well. While that may seem like a “well, duh” point, the point is it has still mattered more than the overall series stats suggest.
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock