By J.R. Wilco | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-10 16:11:48
这是季后赛第二轮“深入敌阵”系列的第四篇。这是我与 PtR 姐妹网站、报道明尼苏达森林狼的 Canis Hoopus 编辑蒂洛 (Thilo) 针对本轮系列赛进行的持续对话。
J.R. 威尔科 (J.R. Wilco)
在这轮感觉像是某位一心想颠覆所有预期的导演所执导的电影般的系列赛中，第三场比赛显得有些诡异。（我们稍后会详谈，但真的很诡异。）首先，圣安东尼奥马刺被寄予厚望，而季后赛中有一条真理：直到客队赢球，系列赛才真正开始。于是我们看到了一场比分胶着的比赛，最终访客带走了胜利，系列赛就此拉开帷幕。预期被颠覆了。
在明尼苏达赢球后，主教练克里斯·芬奇 (Chris Finch) 抱怨裁判漏吹了干扰球，这让第二场比赛的焦点变成了裁判如何对待维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的防守。结果这根本不成问题，因为明尼苏达基本上停止了冲击篮下。在经历了一场比分接近的揭幕战后，第二场演变成了惨案。预期再次被颠覆。
第三场开局，马刺在首节前半段占据了统治地位，明尼苏达完全无法得分。文班亚马打出了疯狂的表现，在攻防两端都极具统治力，看起来就像前两场比赛的翻版；大家都在准备迎接又一场大胜。但圣安东尼奥无法拉开太大分差，因为马刺的三分球投不进，而且他们在油漆区的所有投篮都刷筐而出。所以，我们没有看到第二场的重演，反而看到了第一场的翻版。预期又被颠覆了！
在经历了一场投篮颗粒无收、三分球也仅有 2 中的低迷后，文班亚马迎来爆发，将他卓越的防守与进攻端的大师级表现结合在了一起。现在圣安东尼奥以 2-1 领先，而明尼苏达以擅长打背水一战的硬仗而闻名。那么，接下来我们还会看到哪些预期被颠覆？面对可能是本赛季最后一个主场比赛，你对明尼苏达有什么期待？
蒂洛 (Thilo)
首先，如果杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 能找回准星，我肯定会感到震惊。那将彻底颠覆我现在对他跌入谷底的预期。
从个人层面来看，朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 和麦克丹尼尔斯的表现标准最近已经跌破地板，而阿约·多孙穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 因为伤病情况还能得到一丝宽容。
但天哪，我不知道。从表面上看，森林狼似乎完全丢掉了他们的球队特色。他们没有像在第一场比赛开始时承诺的那样冲击篮筐。他们喷的垃圾话变少了（除非针对的是托尼·布罗瑟斯 (Tony Brothers)），而他们的实际行动支持更是少之又少。
所谓的颠覆，可以是投篮变准，也可以是重新掌控篮板。其中任何一项都足以令人震惊。
如果我听起来很悲观，那是因为我确实很悲观。周五晚上的比赛并不能给人信心。纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 是森林狼阵中唯一打出水准的角色球员。安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 尽力了。
我简直不敢相信森林狼能以那种表现一直咬住第三场比赛。看起来，投篮手感的波动决定了这些比赛是会打得难解难分，还是会演变成圣安东尼奥单方面的屠杀。
不幸的是，我想表达的是，我不确定我能期待哪些现实的改变。
朱利叶斯·兰德尔可能会变回去年季后赛那个最佳版本的自己，但这需要他面对的防守风格不是过去几次季后赛中让他最头疼的那种。所以这看起来不太可能。
森林狼的阵容可能会在三分线外迎来爆发，但他们的投篮专家、除爱德华兹外唯一不能被放空的球员已经赛季报销，甚至缺阵时间更长。这看起来也不太可能，尽管可能性稍大一些。
那就只剩下爱德华兹打出超新星表现的可能性了，但对于一个下肢伤势让那些比我年长的朋友想起奥兰多魔术时期格兰特·希尔 (Grant Hill) 的球员来说，这个要求实在太高了。
不，我认为获胜的方程式是偷下一场比赛，然后全力以赴。森林狼完成了第一步，但看起来并没有准备好夺回所需的领先优势。
话虽如此，如果第四场比赛不是一场决定性的胜利，那将是一个巨大的危险信号。
我想把问题抛回给你。感觉马刺在经历了一个摇摆不定的第一场后已经迎来了转机。在森林狼强行重回这轮系列赛的各种方式中，什么最让你感到恐惧？你认为这些事情发生的可能性有多大？
J.R.
虽然在 1-2 落后的情况下这种情绪可以理解，但我认为你对球队的前景过于苛刻了。试着从这个角度考虑：在 12 个小节中，明尼苏达有 8 个小节与圣安东尼奥打得难解难分，包括在客场打出了一个决定性的第四节。马刺在第二个主场打出了他们最好的比赛，也许森林狼也会如法炮制。我们在第三场比赛前谈过，一些均值回归将有利于文班和迪阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)，现在麦克丹尼尔斯和兰德尔也面临同样的情况。
我还想让你注意到一些你可能觉得理所当然的事情。你们的主场观众太棒了；事实上，我认为是他们阻止了森林狼在第一节崩盘。当圣安东尼奥正上演着篮球版的“零封”（如何形容开场前 6 分钟只让对手得到 1 分更合适呢）时，磨坊之城的观众已经准备好为任何事情欢呼了。当鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 通过一次补篮拿到第一分时，观众席爆发出了持续的、远超那个进球价值的回应。我注意到了这一点，但当时并没觉得能持续多久，因为马刺很快通过德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 的进球和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 的两次罚球拿到了 4 分。但随后纳兹命中了一个三分球，那种奇怪的欢呼声再次响起。这种欢呼比平时更长，感觉就像是一群观众在支持一支正在从巨大分差中奋力追赶并即将扳平比分的球队。但实际上，森林狼才刚刚开始追分。
不过我必须说，球队确实做出了回应。主队的积极性提高了，紧迫感提升了几个档次。我本以为如果马刺能得分，就会带走球馆里的空气，球队和观众可能都会崩溃。下一回合发生了什么？森林狼逼出了一个 24 秒违例，全场观众陷入疯狂。首节剩下的时间里，主队凭借着球迷在还没有太多值得欢呼的事情之前就给予的能量，打出了一波 17-4 的高潮。
但这些都不是最让我害怕的。这些虽然可怕，但真正令我恐惧的是这一切可能促成的结果——一场在末段陷入焦灼的比赛，拥有足够的得分和防守，能将球交到爱德华兹手中，并留出足够的时间让他亲手撕碎马刺的心。他今年已经做到过三次了：常规赛两次，第一场比赛一次。此外，他在周五的第一节末也做到了，麦克丹尼尔斯在第二节末也以同样的方式收尾。
所以这就是我最担心的。你的球队一直紧咬比分，然后爱德华兹再次上演大变活人的绝技。这不会太颠覆预期，但肯定会让系列赛回到同一起跑线。
你认为哪种情况更有可能发生？像第一场和第三场那样从头到尾的肉搏战，还是像第二场那样的完胜？或者可能是完全不同的局面……
蒂洛
很有趣不是吗？竟然是你这个对手在说服我对自己的球队抱有希望，而我却沉溺在拒绝再次心碎的自我怜悯中。
你所描述的，归根结底是一场西部的豪赌，森林狼通过一轮接一轮的下注和翻牌，将局面维持到平手，然后让爱德华兹在最后一手牌中全压。从这个角度来看，面对马刺真是再合适不过了。
为此，我真心希望第四场比赛能以一场森林狼获胜并打破 NBA 季后赛历史最大分差纪录的方式结束。我并不开玩笑地认为明尼苏达今晚能扳平比分，因为第二个主场总是更容易守住并占据主动（参考第二场比赛）。
不过，我还是会坚持我的一些悲观态度。不可逃避的事实是，马刺是一支优秀的球队，虽然森林狼也很出色，但他们目前既不是全员健康，也没有特别进入状态。
我认为其中一件事可能会瞬间改变。我想说，那将使得球队在胶着的比赛中脱颖而出。我认为这就是我们在第四场比赛中会看到的。
尽管如此，回想起我们做的第一篇对话，我记得当时我们的焦点是“马刺不能只是‘打得更好’，总会有得有失”。感觉马刺为了获得巨大的优势，付出的代价极小。明尼苏达可能需要扭转这种局面。
不付出任何代价，并夺回势头。
在客场赢下两场比只赢一场要难得多。在主场输掉两场也理应比只输一场要难得多。
我们今晚见分晓，我希望这会是一场精彩的比赛，因为尽管输了，第三场比赛还是比第二场有趣得多。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The Timberwolves chances of flipping the script on the Spurs
The Timberwolves chances of flipping the script on the Spurs
Here’s the fourth installment of the second round’s Fraterniz With The Enemy, my ongoing, series-long conversation with Thilo of PtR’s sister site covering the Minnesota Timberwolves, Canis Hoopus.
J.R. Wilco
In the middle of a series that feels like a movie from a director intent on subverting expectations above all else, Game 3 was a weird game. (We’ll get to it in a moment, but it was weird.) First, San Antonio was favored heavily, and it’s a true-ism that a series doesn’t begin until the road team wins. So we got a tight game that the visitors won, and so the series began right away. Expectations subverted.
After Minnesota’s victory Coach Finch gripes about a lack of goaltending calls, setting up Game 2 to focus on how the refs treat Wemby’s defensive game, only for it to be a practical non-issue as Minnesota largely stopped driving. After a close opener, Game 2 was a blowout. Expectations subverted.
To start Game 3, the Spurs dominated the opening half of the first quarter and Minnesota couldn’t score at all. Wembanyama was playing out of his mind and dominating on both ends, which looked like the game they played two prior; let’s saddle up for another blowout. But San Antonio couldn’t build much of a lead because the Spurs couldn’t hit a three and all of their shots in the paint were rimming out. So, instead of getting a repeat of Game 2, we got a repeat of Game 1. Expectations subverted!
After going 0-fer, and 2-fer from deep, Victor goes off and combines his excellent defense with an offensive master class. Now San Antonio is up 2-1, and Minnesota is known for being an incredible team when their backs are against the wall. So what are the next expectations that we will see subverted? And what do you expect from Minnesota looking at potentially their last home game of the season?
Thilo
To start with, I would certainly be shocked if Jaden McDaniels started hitting his shots again. That would subvert the cratered expectations I have for him now.
On an individual level, the bar has recently gone through the floor for Julius Randle and McDaniels, while Ayo gets the most marginal amount of slack due to his injury status.
But God, I don’t know. On a surface level, the Wolves seem to have lost their identity entirely. They aren’t getting to the rim the way they had initially promised in Game 1. They’re talking a lot less trash (unless Tony Brothers is the target) and they’re backing up even less.
A subversion could be anything from shooting better to rebounding again. Any of that would be shocking.
If I sound pessimistic, it’s because I am. Friday night’s game was not one to inspire confidence. Naz Reid was the only role player on the Wolves that played up to standards. Anthony Edwards did what he could.
I am quite simply shocked that the Wolves were able to stay in Game 3 the way they played. It seems like shooting variance decides whether these games will be close or an abject demolition in favor of San Antonio.
Unfortunately, what I’m getting at is that I’m not really sure what I expect to change that’s remotely realistic.
Julius Randle could become the optimized version of himself from last year’s playoffs, but that would require him not facing the style of defense that has caused him the most trouble in the past few playoff runs. So that looks unlikely.
The Wolves roster could have a hot game from deep, but their shooting specialist and the only guy outside of Ant that can’t be dared to shoot is out for the year and more. That looks unlikely, albeit more possible.
That leaves the possibility of Ant going supernova, but that’s a LOT to ask of a guy playing on a lower body that reminds friends older than myself of Orlando Magic Grant Hill.
No, I think the winning formula was stealing a game and then pressing the pedal all the way down. The Wolves accomplished step one, but don’t look poised to reclaim that needed head start.
That being said, anything but a decisive win in Game 4 would be a huge red flag.
I guess I’ll flip the question on you. It feels like the Spurs have turned a corner after a shaky Game 1. What scares you the most in terms of ways the Wolves can muscle their way back into this bout? How possible/probably do you think those things are?
J.R.
While it makes sense given being down 2-1, I think you’re being overly harsh on your team’s prospects. Try thinking about it from this perspective: Minnesota has played San Antonio close for 8 quarters out of 12, including a decisive fourth quarter on the road. The Spurs played their best game in their second homer, so perhaps the Wolves will do the same. We talked before Game 3 about how some regression to the mean would be in favor of Wemby and Fox, and now that’s the case for McDaniels and Randle.
I’d also like to draw your attention to something that you might be taking for granted. Your home crowd is amazing; in fact, I credit them for keeping the Timberwolves from cratering in the first. With San Antonio in the middle of throwing basketball’s version of a shutout (how better to describe yielding a single point over the first 6 minutes of a game) the Mill City audience was primed for something to cheer for. When Gobert got that first basket with a tip-in, there was this sustained response from the crowd that was way out of proportion. I noted it, but didn’t think it would go far as the Spurs scored a quick four points on a Vassell bucket and a pair of Castle freebies. But then Naz hit a three and there was that strange cheer again. It was longer that normal and had the feel of a crowd that had been rooting for a team that had been working their way back from a big deficit and was about to tie it up. But the Wolves were just starting to claw their way back into it.
I’ve got to say, though, that the team really responded. The home team’s activity picked up, their urgency ratcheted up a couple of notches, and thought that if the Spurs could score, it would take the air out of the arena and both the team and the crowd might cave. What happened on the next possession? Timberwolves forced a shot clock violation and the crowd came unhinged. The rest of the quarter was a 17-4 run from the home team on the back of the energy that the fans decided to give before there was really much to cheer for.
But none of that is really what scares me the most. It’s scary, but the truly terrifying bit is what all of that might enable – a tight game down the stretch with enough scoring and defense to put the ball in Edwards’s hands with just enough time on the clock to rip the hearts out of the Spurs. He’s done it three times already this year: twice in the regular season, and once in Game 1. Plus, he did it at the end of the 1st on Friday, and McDaniels closed out the 2nd in the same way.
So that’s what I’m most afraid of. Your team sticks around, and Ant pulls a rabbit out of his hat again. It wouldn’t subvert expectations much, but it sure would even up the series.
Which of those options do you think is more likely? A wire to wire dogfight like Games 1 and 3 or a blowout like Game 2? Or maybe it’s something else entirely…
Thilo
It’s funny isn’t it? That you’re the one convincing me to have hope in my team, while I wallow in the self-pity of refusing to have my heart broken again.
What you’re describing, ultimately, is a Wild-Westian gamble where the Wolves maneuver themselves, bet by bet, flop by flop, to an even game before letting Ant go all in on the final hand of the game. How fitting it is to be facing the Spurs in that regard.
To that end, what I am truly hoping for is a Game 4 victory that shatters the record for largest playoff win in NBA history in favor of the Timberwolves. I do unironically think Minnesota evens up the series tonight, as the second game at home is always the easier one to hold on to and dominate (vis a vis Game 2).
I think I will stand by some of my pessimism however. There is no escaping that the Spurs are an excellent team, and while the Wolves are quite good as well, they are neither at full strength nor particularly locked in right now.
I think that one of those things can change on a dime. I’d say that would enable pulling away in a close game. I think that’s what we’ll see in Game 4.
Still, if I think back to the first frat we did, I remember the focus we put on “well, the Spurs can’t just ‘play better,’ there’s always give and take.” It feels like the Spurs have had to give up very little to gain a ton. Minnesota probably needs to flip that script.
Give up nothing, and take back momentum.
Winning two on the road is going to be a lot harder than just winning one. Losing two at home should be a lot harder than just losing one.
We’ll see tonight, and I hope we get a good one, because despite the loss, Game 3 was a lot more fun than Game 2.
By J.R. Wilco, via Pounding The Rock