By Jeph Duarte | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-05-04 11:00:00
随着四组分区半决赛对阵全部出炉，是时候讨论对阵情况、做出预测，并选出你支持的球队了。
西部半决赛
杰杰·戈麦斯 (Jeje Gomez) 发布了一篇精彩的深度解析，探讨了我们可以期待的看点，并分析了在安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)出战或缺席的情况下系列赛的走向，因为爱德华兹复出的可能性看起来比预想的要早。
我同意杰杰的预测，看好马刺大比分4-1晋级。
另一组西部半决赛对阵包括NBA卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆和洛杉矶湖人。
湖人缺少了他们最出色的球员卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)。勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 在首轮系列赛的生死战中表现出色，但勒布朗单枪匹马统治比赛的日子早已一去不复返了。他需要强大的角色球员支持。然而，无论他们表现如何，雷霆都过于强势，不会给湖人反击的机会，尤其是如果谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 继续获得裁判的照顾，以史无前例的频率走上罚球线的话。
雷霆在常规赛期间对湖人完成了4-0的横扫，他们将在本轮系列赛中重演这一幕。看好雷霆4-0横扫。
东部半决赛
周六，费城76人爆冷击败了波士顿凯尔特人。凯尔特人曾被认为是代表东部参加NBA总决赛的头号热门，尤其是在杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 回归之后。塔图姆看起来状态丝毫不减。但在抢七大战中，由于膝伤缺阵，波士顿无法在整场48分钟内保持必要的强度来击败他们的宿敌。
76人将面对纽约尼克斯。双方在常规赛的四场比赛中平分秋色，讽刺的是，每次都是主场作战的一方落败。这轮系列赛注定会是一场肉搏战。双方在禁区内都拥有强悍的力量，两队都拥有无所畏惧、冲击篮下的控球后卫，且各自都拥有实力不俗的角色球员。
我对这组对阵非常纠结，我猜这轮系列赛会打满七场。
你更看好谁？
在东部的另一端，头号种子底特律活塞将迎战克利夫兰骑士。两支球队都在周日经历了抢七大战。底特律在第二节拉开比分，随后一骑绝尘。同样地，克利夫兰和多伦多猛龙在半场结束时战平。字面意义上的战平——在六场半的比赛结束后，两队的总得分均为718分，投篮命中率均为47%。克利夫兰在最后24分钟找到了所需的更高档位，将多伦多远远甩在身后。
活塞在首轮比赛中看起来状态不佳。他们确实在1-3落后的情况下完成了逆转，这是NBA历史上仅有的15次壮举之一。但我认为活塞已经油箱见底，难以继续前行。
我预测骑士将大比分4-2晋级。
对这组系列赛有什么预测吗？
马刺与森林狼的首战将于今晚8:30开打。76人对阵尼克斯的比赛则在7:00开赛。
大战一触即发。
Go Spurs Go!
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Open Thread: The NBA Conference Semifinals begin today
Open Thread: The NBA Conference Semifinals begin today
With all four Conference Finals set, it is time to discuss matchups, make predictions, and choose who you are rooting for.
Western Conference Semifinals
Jeje Gomez posted an excellent diagnosis of what we can expect, mentioning hoe the series will look with and without Anthony Edwards as his chance of playing looks sooner than later.
I’m agreeing with Jeje’s prediction and taking the Spurs in 5.
The other Western Conference Semifinals matchup includes the defending NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers are missing their best player in Luka Doncic. LeBron was impressive in the final game of their first round series, but long ago are the days where LeBron alone can take over the game. He needs a strong supporting cast. Yet no matter how well they play, OKC is just too dominant to give the Lakers a fighting chance, especially if SGA continues to get the benefit of the doubt that sends him to the line with unprecedented frequency.
The Thunder owned the Lakers to the tune of 4-0 during the regular season, and they will repeat that in this series. Thunder in 4.
Eastern Conference Semifinals
On Saturday, the Philadelphia 76ers upset the Boston Celtics. The Celtics had been considered the frontrunner for representing the East in the NBA Finals, especially since the return of Jayson Tatum. Tatum looked as if he hadn’t missed a beat. Without him in Game 7 due to a knee injury, Boston could not string together the 48 minutes necessary to knock off their long time rival.
The 76ers will face the New York Knicks. They split the four games during the regular season, ironically losing on their home courts each time. This one promises to be a slugfest. There’s a lot of muscle in the paint, both teams feature fearless, paint-slashing point guards, and each team has formidable role players.
I’m so torn on this one that I have to guess this series goes the full seven games.
Who do you have in this series?
On the other end of the conference, the top-seeded Detroit Pistons will host the Cleveland Cavaliers. Both teams experienced Game 7s on Sunday. Detroit ran away in the 2nd quarter and never looked back. In the same way, Cleveland and Toronto were tied at halftime. Literally tied for the entire series, each time had 718 total points on 47% shooting at the end of six-and-a-half games. Cleveland found the extra gear they needed and left Toronto in the dust in the last 24 minutes.
Detroit looked out of sorts in during the first round. They did come back from 3-1, a feat only accomplished 15 times in NBA history. But I don’t think the Pistons have enough left in the tank to push through.
I’m going with Cleveland in 6 games.
Any predictions for this series?
Game 1 of the Spurs and Timberwolves starts at 8:30 PM tonight. The 76ers face the Knicks at 7:00 PM.
It’s about to go down.
Go Spurs Go!
By Jeph Duarte, via Pounding The Rock