By Eric Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-30 16:06:14
圣安东尼奥马刺队已经正式结束了首轮争夺，赢得了自2017年以来的首个季后赛系列赛。很自然地，现在所有的目光都集中在“边等边看”的局势上，等待着明尼苏达森林狼队与丹佛掘金队之间3号种子对阵6号种子的系列赛结果。
无论结果如何，圣安东尼奥都处于有利位置。此前曾以3-1领先（现为3-2）的森林狼队是最有可能的胜者。然而，他们的后场现在极度人手短缺。明星得分后卫安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 在第三场比赛中遭遇膝盖过度伸展，导致骨挫伤；而在同一场比赛中，丹特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 遭遇了跟腱断裂。现在，伯恩斯·海兰德 (Bones Hyland) 也因左膝酸痛而处于出战成疑的状态。
这使得阿约·多苏姆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 和迈克·康利 (Mike Conley) 必须填补空缺。虽然面对同样步履维艰的掘金队，他们确实有能力应对——多苏姆在第三场比赛中砍下43分，系列赛场均贡献21.8分——但面对由斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 领衔、维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 坐镇后防的防线，那完全是另一回事了。森林狼队在截止日期前交易得到多苏姆之前，今年的组织进攻能力本就捉襟见肘，而随着康利职业生涯步入暮年，很难想象森林狼队的后卫线还能从哪里获得火力支持。
另一方面，丹佛的情况也好不到哪去。三届MVP得主尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 似乎丢掉了他的投篮准星，季后赛三分命中率仅为19.4%。这彻底阻碍了掘金队的进攻，他们难以得分，每百回合仅得到108.7分：这一进攻效率仅比本赛季常规赛全联盟最差的进攻效率略好一点。
森林狼队的防守不容小觑，常规赛防守效率排名全联盟第八。现在想象一下，这支挣扎中的掘金队进攻，面对的是由年度最佳防守球员坐镇、常规赛排名第三的防线。对于这群来自丹佛高原的球员来说，日子肯定不好过。
在防守端，掘金队同样陷入困境。他们的常规赛防守效率仅排在第21位。再加上掘金队最好的防守者阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 和佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 分别处于出战成疑和因伤缺阵的状态，这对他们来说可不是什么好兆头。
综合各方面情况来看，如果这轮系列赛打到第七场，也并不令人意外。这两支球队颇有渊源，随着他们的恩怨情仇翻开新篇章，究竟谁能赢得前往圣安东尼奥开启下一轮挑战的机会，目前还完全无法预料。
分析这两个潜在对手，只会进一步凸显为什么马刺队现在需要尽一切努力利用好这次季后赛之旅。在审视NBA的历史地位时，人们经常会提到“夺冠窗口期”这个词。这是一个恰当的比喻，因为窗口的开启和关闭是如此容易，而且往往会因为运气而被迫关闭。
掘金队仅在三个赛季前还是冠军球队，但此后甚至没能再进过分区决赛。相反，森林狼队在过去连续两个赛季都打进了分区决赛。虽然这是该队历史上最好的季后赛成绩，但他们始终没能跨过那道坎，挺进总决赛。
类似的故事不胜枚举；其核心信息是：赢球很难，如果一支球队发现自己处于有利位置，就必须充分利用。没有什么事是理所当然的，但就目前而言，马刺队在第二轮似乎拥有明显的优势。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：However Denver vs. Minnesota plays out, the Spurs must take advantage
However Denver vs. Minnesota plays out, the Spurs must take advantage
San Antonio has officially wrapped up the first round, winning its first playoff series since 2017. Naturally, now all eyes look ahead in a “hurry up and wait” situation, as the 3-6 matchup plays out between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.
Regardless of how things play out, San Antonio sits in a position of advantage. Minnesota, who previously held a 3-1 lead (now 3-2), is the most likely winner. However, they are now beyond short-handed in the backcourt. Star shooting guard Anthony Edwards hyperextended his knee in Game 3, resulting in a bone bruise and hyperextended knee, while in the same game, Donte DiVincenzo tore his Achilles tendon. And now Bones Hyland is also questionable with left knee soreness.
This has left Ayo Dosunmu and Mike Conley to fill in the gaps. And while they certainly can and have managed against an also-hobbled Denver team — Dosunmu scored 43 points in game 3 and is averaging 21.8 points in the series — matching up against a defense fronted by Stephon Castle and backed by Victor Wembanyama is a whole other story. The Timberwolves were already short on playmaking this year until trading for Dosunmu at the deadline, and with Conley on the last sunsets of his career, it’s hard to imagine where the guard play will come from for the Timberwolves.
On the other side of things, Denver isn’t looking much better. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic appears to have lost his jumper, averaging 19.4 percent from long range in the playoffs. This has completely stunted Denver’s offense, as they struggle to find scoring, averaging 108.7 points per 100 possessions: an offensive rating that would rank only slightly better than the worst offensive rating in the league this regular season.
Minnesota’s defense is no slouch, ranking eighth in regular-season defensive rating. Now imagine that same struggling Nuggets offense against the third-best regular-season defense, anchored by the Defensive Player of the Year. It wouldn’t be a great time for the hoopers from Mile High.
Defensively, the Nuggets are also struggling. They finished 21st in regular-season defensive rating. This combined with the fact that Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, the Nuggets’ best defenders, are questionable and out with injuries, does not bode well for them.
Looking at how they all stack up, it wouldn’t be surprising if it went to 7 games. These two teams have a history, and as their rivalry writes another chapter, it’s a total toss-up as to who will win the honor of traveling to San Antonio for their next challenge.
Profiling both of these potential opponents only highlights why the Spurs need to capitalize on this run as best they can right now. When looking at legacies in the NBA, the term “championship window” is often brought up. It’s an apt metaphor because a window can be opened and closed so easily and often can be shuttered by luck.
Denver was a championship team only three seasons ago but hasn’t been back to even the Conference Finals since. Conversely, Minnesota is a team that has been to the Conference Finals in the last two consecutive seasons. And while that is the best playoff success of the franchise’s history, they haven’t managed to get over the hump to the last round.
There are dozens of similar stories; the overall message is that winning is hard, and if a team finds itself in a position to do so, it needs to make the most of it. Nothing is given, but at the current moment, the Spurs look to have a definitive advantage in the second round.
By Eric Fritts, via Pounding The Rock