By J.R. Wilco | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-28 15:24:09
这是与 Blazers Edge 的戴夫·德卡德 (Dave Deckard) 贯穿季后赛首轮对话的延续（也可能是终点），我觉得有必要提供一些背景信息。毫不夸张地说，这些“通敌对话”系列是我在 PtR 最喜欢做的事情。虽然最近我不常做，但这更多是因为生活重心的变化，而不是因为我不喜欢这些对话。
当我在 2010 年首次接任 Pounding the Rock 的总编辑时，我做的第一件事就是联系 SB Nation 其他球队的 NBA 博客，看看谁有兴趣在两队交锋前进行一些有趣的赛前讨论。在那条路上没走多远，我就遇到了戴夫，我可以非常谦逊地说，我们的对话堪称传奇。我们玩得很开心，在娱乐和告知社区的同时，更重要的是，我们成为了朋友。我们的电话和视频通话并不总是围绕篮球或博客，我们了解彼此的家庭，共同度过了生活中的艰难时刻。
对我来说，任何阅读这些对话的人不仅要意识到，更要充分理解我有多么钦佩和感激戴夫。他不仅仅是一个聊球的人，或者一个懂得如何报道开拓者队的人——他更像是我的家人。在这种关系中，当有人戳中你的痛处时，你不会感到被冒犯。当你关系亲近时，你可以尽情挖苦，而不用担心对方会当真。甚至有时候，一句犀利的评论反而能传递亲密感。就像肩膀上的一拳有时和拥抱一样温暖。
所以，我希望你们也能以这种心态来看待这些对话。家人之间可以说出一些你绝不会容忍外人说的话。所以请听我说，我为戴夫担保，他是我认识了 15 年的好人，他的本意绝不是要挑起争端。
如果你错过了之前的对话：在第一部分中，我们对系列赛进行了前瞻。随后在第二部分中，随着系列赛带着 1-1 的比分移师波特兰，马刺面临着维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 脑震荡带来的未知。现在，我们在第五场比赛前继续，马刺全员健康并以 3-1 领先系列赛。
J.R.
第四场比赛后有两个问题：
首先，斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 在攻防两端的表现一直是本系列赛中波特兰的亮点之一，他在第四场比赛的“隐身”让我感到惊讶。你觉得这是否反映了他的长期前景或上限？你认为他在第三场比赛中的垃圾话点燃了迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的斗志，这是否导致了周日的表现（或表现不佳）？
其次，我不喜欢斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 在第四节德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 犯规后把球按在德尼胸前的举动，但这展示了斯蒂芬通常保持的冷峻面孔下的情绪。德尼是个充满激情的球员，他在周日下午确实打出了火气；你对他在第五场比赛中的情绪和强度有什么期待？你认为周二的比赛会有多大的火药味？
Dave
关于斯库特的评价和上次对话时没变。单场表现说明不了斯库特·亨德森的长期潜力。他的表现起伏不定，就像冲向沙滩的海浪。如果你试图预测每一波浪潮的走向，你只会感到沮丧。你应该关注的是整体潮汐的上涨，即这个月是否比上个月更高。对斯库特来说，总体趋势是向上的，但你仍然会在波浪模式中遇到一些带着藤壶臭味的退潮。
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔想做什么都可以，德尼也是。马刺和开拓者之前都没进过季后赛，这一点显而易见。波特兰在为微小的瞬间欢呼，却忽略了大局；圣安东尼奥在为那些本不该落后的比赛中奋力逆转而喋喋不休。任何有能力的资深对手现在都能把这两支球队收拾得服服帖帖送回家。区别在于，马刺将有机会在随后的轮次中纠正这些问题，而波特兰则没有。不管怎样，这就像看着两只小狗互相吠叫，直到有人打开大门放进一只“大狗”。
至于第五场比赛，你的猜测和任何人的都一样准。
开拓者可能会打得更有身体对抗，通过纠缠和拼抢来应对。我有点怀疑我们是否能看到这一点，因为表面之下似乎存在疲劳/伤病因素。在第三场比赛中，德尼·阿夫迪亚还没打多久就大汗淋漓，抓着短裤喘气。杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 看起来比平时慢了半拍。感觉除了亨德森和图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara)，他们已经没有多少体力去拼搏了。通常你会期待多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 也能提供一些对抗，但他消失了。这其中一部分可能是因为缺乏经验和对位不利。他在有限的时间里被吹了很多次犯规，此时他可能在如何打球的问题上陷入了自我怀疑。
不管怎样，开拓者可能会打得充满火药味，但也同样可能表现平平，最终草草收场。本赛季这两种情况我们都见过。你永远不知道这支球队会打出什么样的表现。最有可能的情况是他们会抵抗一阵子，然后在结果变得显而易见时放弃。我不知道你有没有注意到，无论他们在做什么，都像是一列冲下坡的火车。当他们状态好时，没人能挡住他们；当他们状态差时，再多的暂停也无法扭转局面。就像对付一个蹒跚学步的孩子：“别那样做！别那样做！别那样做！噢……他还是做了。”
但是，嘿，你一定对哈珀和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔感到高兴。福克斯甚至在第四场比赛中也露了脸。文班有帮手了？
J.R.
是的，文班有帮手了，这也是我对第五场比赛大部分积极期待的来源。文班本身就极具观赏性，但即使在他目前状态的最佳时期，他也完全无法持续控制进攻端。我指的不仅是联盟顶级巨星那种控制力，而是普通优秀的进攻球员所具备的那种控制力。
不仅仅是对手经常能破坏他的意图，有时候只需要一个合适的防守球员就能做到！你见过霍勒迪在某些时段做到过。现在想象一下这种情况持续一整场比赛。这一直是我大半个赛季挫败感的来源，直到文班意识到（大约在二月中旬），他不需要通过得分也能让马刺拥有统治级的进攻。
从那以后，他开始愿意打无球，利用他的顺下牵制力创造空间来解放队友，这又回到了你提到的帮手问题，并揭示了文班作为一个“反击者”的身份。不需要太高的篮球智商就能看出文班是防守端的头狼，但在进攻端，他作为一个僚机比作为王牌要好得多。就像《壮志凌云》里的独行侠（Maverick），他必须决定守在冰人（Iceman）身边充当副手，然后才能成为明星并击落那些米格战斗机。当对方的防守集中在阻止球队其他成员时，文班就准备好成串地得分了。
说到成串得分，增加一两个神射手是否就是阿夫迪亚让波特兰成为进攻强队所需要的全部，还是说还有更多的漏洞需要填补？
Dave
神射手要替换谁呢？开拓者在拥有一套超强运动能力、长人阵容并执行侵略性协防时表现最好……好吧，至少是四名球员加上多诺万·克林根镇守禁区。然而，一旦防守出现漏洞，它往往就会崩溃。以波特兰的打法，他们不能只出八分力，必须全力以赴，否则就一无是处。
那么现在，让我们加入你假设的一两个射手。他们能防守吗？他们身材高大且运动能力强吗？如果是这样，开拓者该如何得到他们？
（抱歉，我忘了我在跟谁说话。你看，在圣安东尼奥以外的联盟其他地方，你不能像逛便利店一样去乐透区，想要顶级球员就顺手拎走，因为你走进那扇门时有 70% 的概率被提拔到前四顺位。亚当·“海狸”·萧华可能会给你塞一个“买个牛腩三明治送一个时代级中锋”的套餐，但大多数球队实际上必须通过交易好球员来换取好球员。或者他们在选秀中顺位较低，不得不做出妥协，在青睐某些技能的同时牺牲其他技能。波特兰几乎所有人都在这个范畴内。）
另一方面，如果这些新射手防守不好或运动能力不强，那么你为了产生更多进攻而破坏了防守体系。这可能会带来微小的提升，但不足以让开拓者跃升为竞争者。
不幸的是，波特兰最好的机会可能是等到 2028-2030 年的选秀窗口，寄希望于在 23 年达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 交易中从密尔沃基雄鹿队获得的选秀权和互换权中走运或获得提升。
顺便提一句：那些整天喊着“波特兰总是做愚蠢决定”的人应该去追踪一下那笔交易链的来源。凭借利拉德交易的收益和几个不起眼的添头，开拓者锁定了德尼·阿夫迪亚、图马尼·卡马拉、罗伯特·威廉姆斯三世 (Robert Williams III)、朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)、达米安·利拉德本人，以及潜在的密尔沃基 2028-30 年所有的首轮选秀权。对于那些算账的人来说，在两年时间里，波特兰得到了最初超级巨星交易中的双方主角，除此之外还有一名 NBA 全明星，外加一名最佳防守阵容的前锋，联盟最好的替补中锋之一，以及三个极有可能是乐透级别的未来首轮签。
获得阿夫迪亚、卡马拉、霍勒迪、利拉德、威廉姆斯以及三次博取乐透机会（如果密尔沃基变烂的话）的净成本是：安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons)、尤素夫·努尔基奇 (Jusuf Nurkic) 和一个中游的首轮签。开拓者简直就是那些用别人的钱买房地产的人。他们应该开一个深夜电视购物节目，在你们当地办个讲座。
（想象一下如果德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 哪怕打得好一点。波特兰在那笔交易链中也得到了他。如果当初……唉。）
回到话题：即使密尔沃基的那些选秀权完美兑现，到 2030 年，波特兰在阵容连续性和经验上会落后马刺多少？你可以看到那些乒乓球把我们逼到了什么境地。这就像在玩“战争”扑克牌游戏，发牌前把所有的尖儿（Ace）都给了对手。你能赢吗？也许，靠点运气。可能性大吗？额……
如果不行，开拓者可以尝试将那些雄鹿队的选秀权和互换权与谢登·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) 或斯库特·亨德森等年轻球员打包，试图诱使另一支球队放弃现有的球星，转而进行全新的重建。但谁会买账呢？波特兰能从菲尼克斯得到德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 吗？那会带来足够的改变吗？我不认为斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 在多伦多是可以交易的，而且他也不是个出色的射手。我的意思是，能提升竞争力的、高命中率的射手选择其实很少。
有些人希望利拉德明年回来并改变现状，但那是 30 多岁、伤后的利拉德，而不是 26 岁的版本。我会说他给开拓者带来的任何贡献都是额外的红利。再加上防守的问题。我很乐意拥有他，但不认为他能带领我们夺冠。
废话不多说。整个夏天我们都会讨论这些话题。唯一的问题是讨论是从今晚开始，还是我们能再多花几天时间沉浸在季后赛系列赛中。
我很想祝你在第五场比赛中好运，但这就像给埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 一张 100 美元的礼品卡。所以我只想说谢谢交流，享受你的春天，如果开拓者和马刺真的打到了第七场（虽然可能性不大），我们可以再聊。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The different paths the Spurs and Blazers have taken to Game 5
The different paths the Spurs and Blazers have taken to Game 5
This is the continuation (and possibly the end) of this conversation with Dave Deckard of Blazers Edge through the first round of the playoffs, and I feel it’s important that I provide some context. I’m not exaggerating when I say that these Fraternizing with the Enemy posts are my favorite thing I get to do on PtR. I haven’t done many recently, but that’s more a factor of how life has changed than how much I enjoy having these conversations.
When I first took over as editor-in-chief of Pounding the Rock in 2010, one of the first things I did was reach out to the other SB Nation NBA blogs to see who was interested in having some fun pre-game discussions with me in the lead-up to the clash of our teams. A short way down that path, I ran into Dave, and it’s with real humility that I can say that our conversations were legendary. We had a blast, and we entertained and informed our communities, but more than all that, we became friends. We’ve had phone calls and video calls that weren’t centered around basketball or blogging. We’ve gotten to know about each other’s families. We’ve gone through difficult life events together.
It’s important to me that anyone reading these conversations isn’t just aware but fully understands how much I admire and appreciate Dave. He’s not just a guy to talk hoops with or someone who knows how to cover the Trail Blazers — he’s more like family than that. In that kind of relationship, you don’t take offense when someone jabs at a soft spot. When you’re close, you can get snarky without worrying whether it’ll be taken seriously. Shoot, sometimes a sharp remark is what actually communicates closeness. Like the way a punch to the shoulder can be just like a hug.
So that’s the approach I would like for you to take with these conversations. Family can say things you’d never take from an outsider. So hear me as I vouch for Dave, that he’s a good guy I’ve known for 15 years, and his intent isn’t to start a fight.
In case you missed it, in Part 1, we previewed the series. Then, we picked things up in Part 2 as the series shifted to Portland tied 1-1 and the Spurs facing the unknown with Victor Wembanyama’s concussion. Now, we continue ahead of Game 5 with the Spurs healthy and leading the series 3-1.
J.R.
Two questions after Game 4:
First, Scoot Henderson’s play on both ends has been one of Portland’s highlights for me in this series, and his no-show in Game 4 surprised me. Do you feel this says anything about his long term outlook or his ceiling, and do you see anything in the way his smack talk in Game 3 lit a fire under Dylan Harper and could that have set up Sunday’s performance/lack thereof?
Second, I didn’t like Castle putting the ball in Deni’s chest after Avdija’s foul in the fourth, but it shows the emotions going on behind the stoic facade Stephon usually maintains. Deni’s a fiery guy and he definitely got fiery Sunday afternoon; what do you expect from him and the team in Game 5 as far as emotion and intensity? How chippy do you think it’ll get on Tuesday?
Dave
The story on Scoot hasn’t changed from the last frat. Nothing shows anything about Scoot Henderson’s long-term potential. He goes up and down, like waves coming into a beach. If you try to predict the exact flow, you’re just going to get frustrated. What you want to see is the tide coming in overall, that it’s higher this month than it was last. That’s generally true of Scoot, but you’re still going to get some barnacle-smelly ebbs in the wave pattern.
Castle can do whatever Castle wants to do. So can Deni. Neither the Spurs nor the Blazers have been to the playoffs before and it shows. Portland is celebrating small moments and missing the big picture. San Antonio is jawing about coming back in games they never should have been down in. Any competent, veteran opponent would wrap either team up and send them home to mama right now. The difference is, the Spurs are going to have a chance to correct that in subsequent rounds while Portland won’t. Either way, it’s like watching two puppies bark at each other before somebody opens the gate and lets the Big Dog in.
As far as Game 5, your guess is as good as anybody’s.
The Blazers could come out physically, mixing it up and fighting. I halfway doubt we’ll see this simply because there seems to be a fatigue/injury factor going on underneath the surface. In Game 3 Deni Avdija had worked up a huge sweat and was grabbing his shorts before hardly any time had elapsed. Jerami Grant looks a half a step slower than usual. It doesn’t feel like they have a whole lot of physical fight left in them outside of Henderson and Toumani Camara. Usually you’d expect Donovan Clingan to provide some of that too, but he’s disappeared. Some of that might be inexperience and bad matchups. He’s gotten whistled for a bunch of fouls in limited minutes too. He may be inside his own head about how to play at this point.
Either way, the Blazers could play chippy, but it’s just as likely they’ll come out flat and end it with a whimper. We’ve seen both this season. You never know what you’re going to get with this team. Best bet is that they fight for a little bit, then surrender when the outcome becomes obvious. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but whatever they’re doing, it’s like a train going downhill. When they’re good, nobody is going to stop them. When they’re bad, all the timeouts in the world won’t turn it around. It’s like dealing with a toddler. “Don’t do that! Don’t do that! Don’t do that! Awwww…he did that.”
But hey, you must be happy about Harper and Castle. Fox even peeked his head through the curtain in Game 4. Wemby has some help?
J.R.
Yeah, Wemby has some help and that’s the source of most of my positive anticipation for Game 5. Wemby’s enough fun to watch just himself, but even at the best of his best, in his current form, he’s totally unable to consistently control the game on offense. And I don’t mean only in the way that the league’s elite do, I mean just in the way ordinary excellent offensive players can.
It’s not just that teams regularly take him out of what he wants to do, sometimes all it takes is the right player! You’ve seen Holiday do it for stretches. Now imagine that going on for an entire game. It was the source of frustration for me most of the season until Wemby figured out (around the middle of February) that he doesn’t need to score in order for the Spurs to have a dominant offense.
Since then, he’s been willing to play off ball and let his roll gravity create the space that frees up his teammates, which brings us back to the help you mentioned and reveals Wemby as a counterpuncher. It doesn’t take much basketball IQ to know that Wemby is the alpha dog on defense, but on offense, he’s a far better wingman than he is an ace. Like Maverick, he had to decide to stick by Iceman and play second fiddle before he got to be the star and knock the rest of those MiGs out of the sky. When the other team’s defense is focusing on stopping the rest of the team, then Wemby is primed to score in bunches.
Speaking of scoring in bunches, is the addition of a deadeye shooter or two all Avdija needs to make Portland an offensive force, or are there more gaps that need to be plugged?
Dave
Deadeye shooters replacing what, though? The Blazers are at their best when they have a hyper-athletic, long quintet playing aggressive help defense…well, at least four players and then Donovan Clingan watching the paint. As soon as holes in that defense appear, though, it tends to fall apart. The way Portland plays, they can’t go four-fifths hard. They have to go all the way or nothing.
So now, let’s put in your hypothetical shooter or two. Can they defend? Are they long and athletic? If so, how will the Blazers ever acquire them?
(My bad, I forgot who I’m talking with. See, in the rest of the league outside of San Antonio, you can’t just visit the lottery like your local convenience store and pick up premium players whenever you wish because you get promoted to a Top 4 pick 70% of the time you walk through the door. Buc Ee SilverBeaver may be slipping you the, “Buy a brisket sandwich and get a generational center free!” combo deal but most teams actually have to trade good players to get good players. Or they pick lower in the draft and make compromises, favoring some skills while sacrificing others. Just about everybody Portland has falls into that category.)
If, on the other hand, these new shooters are not great defenders and/or not athletic, now you’re poking holes in the defensive scheme in order to generate more offense. That might bring marginal improvement, but not enough to vault the Blazers into contention.
Unfortunately, Portland’s best chance is probably waiting until the 2028-2030 draft corridor, hoping to get lucky and/or promoted with the picks and swaps they received from the Milwaukee Bucks in the Damian Lillard deal back in ‘23.
Side Note: The “pOrtLanD mAKeS bAd dE-ciZZ-uNs DERP!” crowd should follow the provenance of that trade chain. With the proceeds of the Lillard deal and a couple modest throw-ins the Blazers secured Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Robert Williams III, Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard himself, and potentially all of Milwaukee’s first-round picks from 2028-30. For those counting, in a two-year span Portland got both principals in the original superstar trade, an NBA All-Star on top of that, plus an All-Defensive Team forward, one of the best reserve centers in the league, and three future first-round picks that have a decent chance to be lottery-level.
Net Cost for Avdija, Camara, Holiday, Lillard, Williams, and three shots at the lottery if Milwaukee sucks: Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, and one middling first-round pick. The Blazers are literally those guys that buy real estate using other people’s money. They should start a late-night infomercial about a seminar coming to your area.
(Imagine if Deandre Ayton had been any good. Portland got him in that deal chain too. If only…sigh.)
Returning to the topic: Even if those Milwaukee picks work out perfectly, how far will the Blazers be behind the Spurs in continuity and experience by 2030? You can see what a bind those ping-pong balls put us in. It’s like playing the card game War and giving the opponent all the aces before the deal. Can you beat them? Maybe, with some luck. Is it likely? Ehhhh…
Failing that, the Blazers can try to bundle those Bucks picks and swaps with young players like Shaedon Sharpe or Scoot Henderson to try and entice another team out of their current star in favor of a fresh-start rebuild. But who’s going for that? Could Portland get Devin Booker from Phoenix? Would that make enough of a difference? I don’t think Scottie Barnes is available in Toronto and he’s not a good shooter anyway. I mean, the pickings on contention-boosting, high-percentage marksmen are kind of slim.
Some people are hoping Lillard comes back next year and makes that difference, but this is mid-30’s, post-injury Dame, not the 26-year-old version. I’d say anything he gives the Blazers is gravy. Plus there’s that whole defense thing. Love to have him. Don’t think he’s leading us to a title.
Blah blah blah. We’ll be talking about these topics all through the summer. The only question is whether that will start tonight or whether we’ll get another couple days to distract ourselves with the playoffs series.
I’d wish you good luck in Game 5 but that would be like giving Elon Musk a $100 Spencer’s Gift Card. So I’ll just say thanks for talking, enjoy your spring, and we can chat again in the unlikely event the Blazers and Spurs get to a Game 7.
By J.R. Wilco, via Pounding The Rock