By Joe Vardon | The Athletic, 2026-04-24 16:42:37
多伦多——如果你觉得本赛季NBA季后赛首轮显得异常混乱，那是因为事实确实如此。
在周四的三场比赛开始前，NBA官方社交媒体发布了这样一段信息：共有五组首轮系列赛战成1-1平，这追平了自1984年以来，前两场双方各胜一局的系列赛数量之最。
紧接着在周四晚上，下位球队纷纷发力拿下了第三场。多伦多猛龙痛击了克利夫兰骑士（尽管骑士目前大比分2-1领先且更被看好）；亚特兰大老鹰凭借CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 的又一记关键进球和终场前的成功防守再次击败纽约尼克斯，目前作为6号种子在系列赛中领先；在西部，6号种子明尼苏达森林狼从3号种子丹佛掘金手中抢下第三场，取得2-1的领先优势。
不确定性远不止于此。周五还将进行两场目前战成1-1平的系列赛，其中在圣安东尼奥马刺对阵波特兰开拓者的系列赛中，该系列赛乃至全联盟最顶尖的球员之一——维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 正处于脑震荡保护协议中。
在仅有的两组目前大比分2-0领先的系列赛中，俄克拉荷马城雷霆将因另一侧腿筋受伤而失去入选过最佳阵容的杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)。而洛杉矶湖人虽然种子顺位高于休斯顿火箭，但由于前两号得分手的伤病，赛前被极度看低，不过他们今晚的第三场比赛可能会迎来奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的回归。凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 在缺席第一场后，再次出现在了伤病名单中。
由于后续还有大量比赛，现在对首轮的最终结果下任何定论都为时过早。
但2026年季后赛首轮的所有八组系列赛中都蕴含着强烈的不确定性。相信你的眼睛，也相信你那加速的心跳。
周五赛程
2号种子波士顿凯尔特人 vs. 7号种子费城76人
系列赛比分：1-1
赛前看好方：凯尔特人（根据BetMGM数据，胜赔为-600）
变数：76人在第二场爆冷扳平比分，新秀VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 砍下30分。乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 因阑尾切除术尚未登场，且截至周五上午10点，第三场的状态仍被列为“出战成疑”。但费城坐镇主场，可以进一步考验在第二场表现挣扎的波士顿角色球员。常言道，角色球员在客场表现会打折扣。泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 目前也状态火热。
4号种子洛杉矶湖人 vs. 5号种子休斯顿火箭
系列赛比分：湖人2-0领先
赛前看好方：火箭 (-600)
变数：如前所述，杜兰特出战成疑（这次是脚踝扭伤；他因膝盖挫伤缺席了第一场），而里夫斯（腹斜肌）可能回归。但最不可思议的是，湖人在缺少里夫斯和卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)（腿筋受伤）的情况下赢下了前两场。勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) ——你可能听说过他——已经41岁了，但打得就像……嗯……他打得非常出色（不能完全说他打得像年轻10岁，因为31岁的勒布朗曾披着红色斗篷，领导了NBA历史上最伟大的总决赛逆转）。卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard) 一直是湖人在该系列赛中的二号球星；而他在NBA中从未超越过角色球员的定位。
与此同时，火箭在拥有杜兰特的第二场比赛中失利，阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 虽是全明星球员，但他们仍显得逊色一筹。如果里夫斯回归而杜兰特缺席第三场，火箭逆转系列赛本就渺茫的机会将变得更加微乎其微。
2号种子圣安东尼奥马刺 vs. 7号种子波特兰开拓者
系列赛比分：1-1
赛前看好方：马刺 (-550)
变数：不仅仅是因为文班亚马在第二场因脑震荡离场，且截至周五上午10点仍处于保护协议中。更在于马刺在没有他的情况下曾在第四节建立起14分的领先优势，却最终惨遭逆转。圣安东尼奥围绕文班构建了一支深厚、称职且坚韧的球队，其天赋本应足以在他康复期间应对这组系列赛，这使得开拓者在第二场的末节逆转更显难能可贵。斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 的真正成名之路仍在继续——他在第二场砍下31分，如果文班不在篮下威慑众人，他将拥有更大的发挥空间。马刺优秀的后场组合达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 在第二场合计36投13中，如果文班再次缺阵，这种情况绝不能再发生。
周六赛程
1号种子底特律活塞 vs. 8号种子奥兰多魔术
系列赛比分：1-1
赛前看好方：活塞 (-200)
变数：博彩公司在开赛前就指出这组系列赛最难预测，因为活塞在所有热门球队中的胜算赔率最低。第一场比赛就让我们看到了原因。奥兰多整个赛季都因伤病和令人抓狂的不稳定性而排在第八顺位。但魔术拥有极高的天赋，尤其是他们的首发阵容，那组球员在第一场的胜利中毫无惧色，给除凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 之外的每一名活塞球员都施加了巨大的压力。活塞在第二场第三节打出一波疯狂攻势，才将大比分扳平。
我们应尽量避免见风使舵地宣称活塞陷入了麻烦，但如果奥兰多打出潜力，那么这就是两支高大、强壮、球风硬朗但外线投射不佳的球队之间的对决。在这种情况下，活塞可能会重蹈2023年密尔沃基雄鹿队的覆辙，后者在首轮输给了8号种子迈阿密热火（热火那年从附加赛一路杀进了总决赛。另一支佛罗里达球队能做到吗？哈哈，说好不要过度反应的）。
1号种子俄克拉荷马城雷霆 vs. 8号种子凤凰城太阳
系列赛比分：雷霆2-0领先
赛前看好方：雷霆 (-2500)
变数：额……这组系列赛其实变数不大。是的，威廉姆斯再次因另一侧腿筋受伤缺阵。他本赛季大部分时间都在从一系列腿筋伤势中恢复，而卫冕冠军雷霆依然轻松夺回了联盟第一的战绩。不过，狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 刚在第二场砍下30分，而太阳头号球星德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 正在寻求本系列赛的爆发之战。为什么不能是周六呢？
3号种子纽约尼克斯 vs. 6号种子亚特兰大老鹰
系列赛比分：老鹰2-1领先
赛前看好方：尼克斯 (-300)
变数：不仅是因为老鹰连赢两场，且两次都是在第四节落后的情况下完成逆转。尼克斯可能正面临身份危机。米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 在周四晚上的第三场比赛中得分挂零。这是否足以让主教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 调整首发阵容？如果不调整，他还能坚持使用布里奇斯多久？此外，杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 在第二场和第三场的收官阶段表现都很挣扎。他是上赛季的年度关键球员，经历过无数艰难的季后赛系列赛，所以现在就把他排除在外还为时过早。
但尼克斯也在背负着巨大的期望压力，如果无法打进分区决赛（甚至总决赛），可能会产生连锁反应。首轮出局对他们来说是绝对无法接受的，尽管从人员配置来看，老鹰对他们而言是一个艰难的对手。
3号种子丹佛掘金 vs. 6号种子明尼苏达森林狼
系列赛比分：森林狼2-1领先
赛前看好方：丹佛 (-400)
变数：森林狼和东部的老鹰一样，连赢了两场。他们让丹佛的最佳球员尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 打得异常艰难，后者在周四的失利中26投仅7中。掘金在第三场还失去了阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon)（小腿受伤）。他们将他的缺阵列为小腿肌肉紧绷，但在经历了去年总决赛泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 的前车之鉴后，各支球队在允许球员从小腿伤势中复出时都会更加谨慎，即使是在季后赛期间。再加上这两支球队是真正的宿敌，而宿敌对决往往会超越让分盘和预期，显然明尼苏达目前处于完成下克上的绝佳位置。
周日赛程
4号种子克利夫兰骑士 vs. 5号种子多伦多猛龙
系列赛比分：骑士2-1领先
赛前看好方：骑士 (-700)
变数：和雷霆那组一样，这组系列赛目前看起来相对平稳。猛龙在第一和第二场完败，随后凭借史诗级的团队投篮表现，以及斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 和RJ·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett)（各砍33分）的个人得分表演赢下了第三场。与此同时，骑士在周四比赛的各个方面都表现糟糕。所有的球星状态全无，防守拉胯，失误过多，投篮低迷。你能想到的负面词汇，他们都占了。
若要宣布这组系列赛胜负难料，猛龙需要在一场骑士表现正常的比赛中取胜。我们推测多伦多可能会迫使克利夫兰在第四场再次打出同样糟糕的表现，但这不太可能，而骑士在系列赛中再打出三次这种水准的表现更是微乎其微。
是的，周日还有另外三场比赛（马刺对开拓者；凯尔特人对76人；湖人对火箭）。但在我们对第四场比赛做出任何猜测之前，能不能先看看这两晚这些系列赛会发生什么疯狂的事情？
在一切尘埃落定之前，不确定性实在太多了。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The NBA playoffs have been historically chaotic. We break down each series
The NBA playoffs have been historically chaotic. We break down each series
TORONTO — If the NBA’s first-round series seem chaotic to you, that’s because they are.
Before the three games on Thursday, the NBA posted to social media the following snippet: Five first-round series were tied, 1-1, tied for the most series where both teams won one of two games dating back to 1984.
And then, on Thursday night, the underdogs went and took Game 3. Toronto clobbered Cleveland (though that series is 2-1, Cavs, who are favored); Atlanta beat the Knicks again on another big CJ McCollum bucket and huge defensive stop at the end and now lead that series as the No. 6 seed; No. 6 Timberwolves took Game 3 from No. 3 Denver out West for a 2-1 series advantage.
The uncertainty doesn’t stop there. Two more series will continue Friday that are currently tied 1-1 and in one of them, No. 2 San Antonio against No. 7 Portland, the best player in that series, one of the best in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama, is in concussion protocol.
In one of the two series remaining in which one team holds a 2-0 lead, Oklahoma City is going to be without All-NBA performer Jalen Williams because of another hamstring injury. And the Lakers, who are the higher-seeded team than Houston but were huge underdogs coming in because of injuries to their top two scorers, could get Austin Reaves back for Game 3 tonight. Kevin Durant is on the injury report again after missing Game 1.
There is simply too much basketball to come to make any grand pronouncements about what will be the end result of the first round.
But there is real volatility coursing through all eight of the 2026 first-round series. Believe what your eyes and your heart rates tell you.
Friday’s Games
No. 2 Boston at. No. 7 Philadelphia
Series: 1-1
Favored at the start: Celtics (-600 odds to win, according to BetMGM)
Volatility: The Sixers evened the series in a stunner of a Game 2 behind 30 points from rookie VJ Edgecombe. Joel Embiid has yet to play (appendectomy) and was listed as “doubtful” for Game 3 as of 10 a.m. Friday, but Philadelphia is at home and can test Boston’s role players, who struggled mightily in Game 2. Role players allegedly play worse on the road. Tyrese Maxey is cooking, too.
No. 4 Lakers at. No. 5 Houston
Series: 2-0, L.A.
Favored at the start: Rockets (-600)
Volatility: As mentioned, Durant is questionable (this time it’s an ankle sprain; he missed Game 1 with a knee bruise) while Reaves (oblique muscle) could return. But the real absurdity here is that the Lakers won the first two games without Reaves and Luka Dončić (hamstring). LeBron James, — you may have heard of him — is 41 years old and playing like… well …he’s playing really good (can’t quite say he’s playing like he’s 10 years younger because 31-year-old LeBron wore a red cape and spearheaded the greatest NBA Finals comeback in history). Luke Kennard has been the Lakers’ second-best player in the series; he has never been more than a role player in the NBA.
The Rockets, meanwhile, had Durant for Game 2 and Alperen Şengün is an All-Star; yet they were outclassed. If Reaves returns and Durant is out of Game 3, Houston’s already long odds to come back and win this series get even longer.
No. 2 San Antonio at No. 7 Portland
Series: 1-1
Favored at the start: Spurs (-550)
Volatility: It’s not just that Wembanyama left Game 2 with a concussion and as of 10 a.m. Friday was still in the protocol. It’s that the Spurs built a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter without him and choked it away. San Antonio built a deep, competent, gritty team around Wemby that should have more than enough talent to manage this series while he recovers, which makes the Blazers’ fourth-quarter comeback in Game 2 all the more impressive. Scoot Henderson’s true coming-out party continues – he scored 31 in Game 2 and has much more room to operate if Wemby isn’t terrorizing him and everyone else in the paint. The Spurs’ excellent guard combo of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle shot a combined 13-of-36 in Game 2, which can’t happen if Victor misses again.
Saturday’s Games
No. 1 Detroit at No. 8 Orlando
Series: 1-1
Favored at the start: Pistons (-200)
Volatility: The oddsmakers pointed to this series at the start as the hardest to pick, as Detroit had the smallest odds of any favorite. And then in Game 1 we saw why. Orlando earned its place as an eighth seed by being both injured and maddeningly inconsistent all season. But the Magic have a ton of talent, especially in their starting five, and that group didn’t flinch while applying pressure on every Piston not named Cade Cunningham in a Game 1 triumph. The Pistons went on a bonkers run in the third quarter of Game 2 to even the series.
We should try not to be a prisoner of the moment on this one and declare the Pistons in trouble, yet, but if Orlando plays to its potential, then we have a matchup of two big, physical, bruising teams that don’t shoot it well from the outside. In that scenario, the Pistons would be in danger of becoming the 2023 Milwaukee Bucks, who lost to the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the first round (the Heat went all the way to the finals that year, coming out of the Play-In Tournament. Can the other Florida team do the same? LOL, so much for not overreacting).
No. 1 Oklahoma City at. No. 8 Phoenix
Series: 2-0, Thunder
Favored at the start: Thunder (-2500)
Volatility: Ehhhh… there still isn’t much of it in this series. Yes, Williams is out again, injuring the other hamstring. He missed most of the season recovering from a series of hamstring injuries, and the defending champs had no trouble reclaiming the top overall record in the NBA. But Dillon Brooks is coming off a 30-point Game 2, and Devin Booker, the Suns’ top player, is looking for a breakout game in this series. Why not Saturday?
No. 3 New York at No. 6 Atlanta
Series: 2-1, Hawks
Favored at the start: Knicks (-300)
Volatility: It’s not just that the Hawks have won the last two games and overcame fourth-quarter deficits both times to do it. The Knicks could be facing an identity crisis. Mikal Bridges was held scoreless in Game 3 on Thursday night. Was it bad enough for coach Mike Brown to make a change to his starting lineup? If not, how long can he stay with Bridges? Also, Jalen Brunson has had two rough finishes at the ends of Games 2 and 3. He was the Clutch Player of the Year last season, and has been through a million tough playoff series, so it would be premature to count him out.
But the Knicks are also playing under the weight of expectation, with likely ramifications if they fall short of the conference finals (or perhaps finals?). A first-round loss would simply be unacceptable, even though the Hawks are a difficult matchup for them based on personnel.
No. 3 Denver at No. 6 Minnesota
Series: 2-1, Timberwolves
Favored at the start: Denver (-400)
Volatility: The Wolves, like the Hawks in the East, won the last two games in this series. They are making it really hard on Denver’s best player, Nikola Jokić, who shot 7-of-26 in Thursday’s loss. The Nuggets also played without Aaron Gordon (calf) in Game 3. They listed him out with tightness in his calf muscle, but after what happened to Tyrese Haliburton in the finals last year, teams are going to be more careful about allowing players to return from any calf injury, even during a playoff series. Throw in that these two teams are actual rivals, and rivalries tend to supersede things like point spreads and expectations, and it’s clear Minnesota is in a great spot to pull the upset.
Sunday’s Games
No. 4 Cleveland at No. 5 Toronto
Series: 2-1, Cavs
Favored at the start: Cavs (-700)
Volatility: Like the Thunder series, this one still seems relatively calm. The Raptors were beaten soundly in games 1 and 2, and then rode a historic team shooting performance and individual scoring nights from Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett (each scored 33 points) to win Game 3. The Cavs, meanwhile, were bad in every facet of Thursday’s game. All of their stars were bad. The defense was bad. Too many turnovers. Poor shooting. You name it, they stunk at it.
To declare this series a toss-up, the Raptors need to win a game in which the Cavs aren’t the worst version of themselves. We suppose Toronto could force Cleveland into an equally bad performance in Game 4, which is unlikely, and it’s even more unlikely that the Cavs play that poorly three more times in this series.
And yes, there are three other games on Sunday (Spurs-Blazers; Celtics-Sixers; Lakers-Rockets). But can we see what craziness unfolds for those series over the next two nights before we cast any guesses for their Game 4s?
There’s too much uncertainty between now and then to do otherwise.
By Joe Vardon, via The Athletic