By Doug Greenberg, 2026-04-18 22:48:40
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 将以夺冠大热门的姿态开启NBA季后赛，力争实现卫冕。然而，博彩大众的目光更多地集中在赔率榜上紧随其后的几支球队身上。
根据DraftKings的赔率，雷霆夺得总冠军的赔率为+110。圣安东尼奥马刺 (San Antonio Spurs)（+500）和波士顿凯尔特人 (Boston Celtics)（+550）处于第二梯队，丹佛掘金 (Denver Nuggets)（+900）则位列热门球队之末。在赔率榜上，排在之后的克利夫兰骑士 (Cleveland Cavaliers) 和纽约尼克斯 (New York Knicks) 赔率分别为1赔17和1赔18，与前四名拉开了明显差距。
尽管前四名球队在各大博彩市场都吸引了大量的注单和投注额，但由于雷霆和掘金整个赛季的赔率都相对较低，博彩公司对这两支球队并没有太大的赔付风险。
“在真正的争冠球队中，雷霆是期货市场（夺冠赔率市场）对博彩公司最有利的结果，”BetMGM体育交易员安东尼·帕伦蒂 (Anthony Parenti) 在一份邮件新闻稿中表示，“博彩公司正处于一个令人羡慕的位置，可以为夺冠大热门加油助威。”
在DraftKings或BetMGM，雷霆并非投注额最高的球队。相反，马刺和凯尔特人成为了更大的赔付风险项，主要是因为这两支球队在赛季初被视为冷门，随后演变成了争冠球队，这让投注者有机会在整个赛季中以极高的赔率买入。
自2023年以状元签选中超级巨星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 以来，马刺一直处于上升期。随着文班亚马保持相对健康，2025-26赛季被证明是他们的突破之年。博彩公司最初持保守态度，DraftKings在赛季开始前给出的马刺夺冠赔率为1赔65。
投注者察觉到了马刺的爆发，并早早地频繁下注。在BetMGM和DraftKings，马刺是吸引NBA总冠军投注额以及西部冠军注单量最高的球队。即便许多博彩公司试图通过调整赔率来应对这一趋势，公众依然纷纷支持文班亚马及其队友。
“我无法想象其他博彩公司在马刺身上的赔付压力有多大，因为他们在一年中大部分时间的赔率都在1赔50以上，”凯撒娱乐 (Caesars Sportsbook) 首席NBA交易员大卫·利伯曼 (David Lieberman) 告诉ESPN，“由于文班亚马表现得太出色了，我们非常果断地降低了他们的赔率，但我们依然在马刺身上承担了相当大的投注额。我不确定还能做些什么，但这就是那种无论如何人们都会根据球队表现去投注马刺的情况。”
与此同时，由于超级巨星杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 因跟腱伤势缺席了赛季大部分比赛，加之过去两个赛季作为争冠常客后的阵容大换血，凯尔特人本应处于温和重建期。这导致DraftKings在赛季初给出了1赔60的赔率。然而，波士顿在全年都保持了竞争力，随着塔图姆回归，他们现在以+155的赔率成为夺得东部冠军的最热门球队。
“凯尔特人曾是一支阵容不整、看起来也不可能恢复完整的球队，但现在他们正以全盛姿态进入季后赛，”DraftKings体育博彩总监约翰尼·阿韦洛 (Johnny Avello) 表示，“他们在赔率很高的时候吸引了大量投注。我们甚至一度给出了1赔75或1赔80的赔率。”
“这两支球队对我们来说并不是理想的结果，”利伯曼补充道。
在赔率榜更靠后的位置，还有其他引人注目的博彩故事和赔付压力。例如，明尼苏达森林狼 (Minnesota Timberwolves) 的夺冠赔率曾一度低至1赔12，在4月初则为1赔50，但在确定首轮对阵掘金后，他们的赔率一路走高至1赔100。
在卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 相继遭遇关键伤病后，洛杉矶湖人 (Los Angeles Lakers) 的赔率也从1赔12的低位一路跌至1赔150。不过，无论是在这些伤病发生前后，湖人依然像往常赛季一样深受投注者青睐。阿韦洛和利伯曼都注意到有大量资金在支持他们，BetMGM也报告称湖人是其目前最大的夺冠赔付风险项。
利伯曼还指出，许多投注者正在分区冠军和总冠军市场中对东部排名靠后的冷门球队进行博弈，希望他们能像去年的黑马印第安纳步行者 (Indiana Pacers) 一样提供类似的价值。他特别提到亚特兰大老鹰 (Atlanta Hawks)（DraftKings赔率为1赔130）和费城76人 (Philadelphia 76ers)（1赔150）是目前吸引了不少关注的球队。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Thunder remain NBA title betting favorite; Spurs, Celtics follow
Thunder remain NBA title betting favorite; Spurs, Celtics follow
The Oklahoma City Thunder will head into the NBA playoffs as large favorites to repeat as champions, but the betting public will be more focused on the teams just below them on the odds board.
The Thunder are +110 to win the NBA Finals, followed by the San Antonio Spurs (+500) and Boston Celtics (+550) in the next tier with the Denver Nuggets (+900) rounding out the group of favored teams, according to DraftKings odds. There is a sizable gap on the odds board before the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks check in at 17-1 and 18-1, respectively.
The top four all have considerable bets and handle across the sportsbook marketplace, but Oklahoma City and Denver are largely not liabilities due to their relatively short odds all season.
“Among the true contenders, OKC is the best result on the futures market,” BetMGM sports trader Anthony Parenti said in an email release. “The sportsbook is in the enviable position of getting to cheer for the favorite to win it all.”
The Thunder are not the top-ranked team by handle at DraftKings or BetMGM. Instead, San Antonio and Boston have become larger liabilities, namely because they started the season as long shots and morphed into contenders, giving bettors the opportunity to grab them at big prices throughout the campaign.
The Spurs have been up-and-coming since drafting superstar Victor Wembanyama first overall in 2023, and with Wembanyama staying relatively healthy, 2025-26 proved to be their breakout season. Bookmakers were initially conservative, with DraftKings assigning them 65-1 championship odds going into the season.
Bettors sensed the breakout and piled on early and often. The Spurs are the highest attractor of NBA Finals winner handle, as well as Western Conference winner tickets, at BetMGM and DraftKings. Even as many bookmakers tried to get ahead of the trend, the public kept lining up to back Wembanyama & Co.
“I can’t imagine what some other books’ liability sheets look like on them because they were 50-to-1-plus for most of the year,” Caesars Sportsbook lead NBA trader David Lieberman told ESPN. “We were super aggressive in lowering them because Wembanyama was playing so well, and we still have quite a bit of money on them. So I’m not sure what else we could have done, but it’s one of those things where people are going to bet the Spurs based on how they looked no matter what.”
Meanwhile, the Celtics were supposed to be in a soft rebuild with superstar Jayson Tatum sidelined most of the season due to an Achilles injury and with lots of roster turnover from the previous two seasons in which they were a perennial title contender. That led DraftKings to give them 60-1 odds going into the season, but Boston was able to stay competitive all year and is now the favorite to win the East (+155) with Tatum back in the fold.
“The Celtics were a team that didn’t have a full squad, didn’t look like they would have a full squad, and here they are at full strength going into the playoffs,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “They were bet at some really big numbers. We had them at maybe 75, 80-1 at one point.”
“Those two teams are not great results for us,” Lieberman added.
There are other compelling betting storylines and liabilities to be found farther down the odds board. The Minnesota Timberwolves, for example, were as short as 12-1 for the title and were 50-1 near the beginning of April, but they lengthened all the way to 100-1 after locking in a first-round matchup with the Nuggets.
The Los Angeles Lakers also took a massive tumble down the odds board from a short price of 12-1 all the way to 150-1 following key injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Both before and after those injuries, though, the Lakers remained as popular with bettors as they are nearly every season, with Avello and Lieberman both noting strong action backing them and BetMGM reporting them as its largest remaining future liability.
Lieberman also notes that many bettors are taking longer shots on East teams further down the board in the conference and championship markets, hoping they can provide similar value to the upstart Indiana Pacers last year. He specifically points to the Atlanta Hawks (130-1 at DraftKings) and Philadelphia 76ers (150-1) as teams attracting action.
By Doug Greenberg, via ESPN