[The Athletic] SGA力压文班亚马夺得MVP,纽佩尔击败弗拉格,以及更多NBA奖项预测

By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-04-15 09:30:36

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联盟拿到了电视转播合同。

在思考NBA关于赛季末奖项评选资格的“65场规则”有多么疯狂时,这是必须记住的关键点。这条莫名其妙的红线剥夺了投票者的选择权,转而替他们决定:卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)(64场比赛出场2289分钟)没有资格,而投票给特雷·琼斯 (Tre Jones)(65场比赛出场1755分钟)则完全没问题。

常规赛最后几周发生的事件让这条规则的荒谬性暴露无遗。东契奇在上周的第64场比赛中拉伤了腿筋,而凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 在3月中旬遭遇肺塌陷后,出场数也被限制在64场。在赛季的最后一个周末,像维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)、吕冈茨·多尔特 (Lu Dort) 和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 这样的球员,为了达标不得不那些本该轮休的低价值比赛中强行出场15分钟;谢天谢地,没有人为了追求这毫无意义的第65场比赛而受伤。

NBA制定这一规则是为了防止球星为了休息和恢复而缺席过多的常规赛,尤其是为了向电视合作伙伴保证,他们在2024年谈判中支付的数十亿美元买下的NBA资源中,会有更多的“卢卡对阵文班”,而不是卢卡斯·威廉姆森 (Lucas Williamson)(他在赛季末代表孟菲斯灰熊出战的7场比赛中,正负值是惊人的-120;孟菲斯2胜21负的收官表现足以专门拍一集《30 for 30》纪录片)。

这项奖项资格规则让东契奇、坎宁安、安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 和德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 等人失去了MVP或最佳阵容的评选资格,并且差一点让文班亚马和约基奇这两位极有可能进入MVP前三的球员也失去资格。显然,这需要改变。要么彻底废除它,要么降低门槛(60场看起来合理得多;它能让坎宁安、东契奇、爱德华兹和布克获得资格,并让其他几位球员免于在毫无意义的比赛中象征性登场)。

即便如此,目前的规则就是规则。东契奇和坎宁安已经通过“特殊情况申诉”条款提出了上诉,但目前尚不清楚他们的申诉是否能取得进展。

无论如何,他们的上诉可能会影响其他投票。想想看:由于这些上诉导致的投票延迟,投票者在提交选票前将看到周二和周三全美直播的附加赛。这是否会影响年度最佳新秀的投票(在夏洛特黄蜂的康·纽佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 在黄蜂附加赛获胜中表现挣扎之后)?或者影响拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 或德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 在最佳阵容或其他奖项中的得票?从技术上讲,投票者不应该考虑附加赛,这就是为什么投票原定在这些比赛开球前完成,但规则在人类本性面前往往是无力的。

在这样的背景下,以下是我对本赛季NBA奖项的投票选择。(我要说明的是,我并没有实际的投票权,所以这只是一个理论上的练习,但我对待它的态度非常认真。)

最有价值球员 (MVP)

  1. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander),俄克拉荷马城
  2. 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić),丹佛
  3. 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama),圣安东尼奥

……(巨大的鸿沟)……

  1. 科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard),洛杉矶快船

……(整个科罗拉多大峡谷般的差距)……

  1. 杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown),波士顿

好了,让我们来谈谈维克托。

在上周的全明星赛后爆发球员报道中,我没有提到文班亚马,因为我想单独讨论他。长话短说:他的表现简直匪夷所思。有非常有力的证据表明,文班亚马自全明星周末以来一直是NBA最好的球员,而且他将在很长一段时间内掌握话语权。

在全明星赛后的24场比赛中,他的净效率达到了令人瞠目结舌的+25.6。没错:在文班亚马出场的平均时间里,面对平均水平的对手,圣安东尼奥马刺完全将对手打爆了。文班亚马的上半赛季已经足够惊人,但他在全明星赛后略微提高了得分和真实命中率,大幅减少了失误,提升了篮板,并且场均贡献近4次盖帽。他的球队打出了22胜2负的战绩。天哪。

文班亚马在盖帽、防守篮板和防守BPM(正负值)方面领跑全联盟,并可能全票当选年度最佳防守球员。在进攻端,他是顺下攻筐和快攻的威胁,还能投进超远三分,能与对方中锋打挡拆,并且越来越适应新秀赛季曾让他吃尽苦头的身体对抗。

如果他在季后赛中表现超过约基奇和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大,我一点也不会感到惊讶。他太神奇了,他的时代已经到来……但这并不意味着他就是MVP。

首先,这个奖项是颁给整个常规赛最有价值的球员,前三分之二的赛季仍然算数。其次,“防守占比赛的一半”这一论点对球队来说是正确的,但对个人来说未必。明星球员,即使是像文班亚马这样防守级别的球星,在进攻端也有更多影响比赛的机会,因为球队可以选择球在他们手中的频率;而在防守端,情况几乎相反,对手会避开文班,转而攻击球场上最差的防守者。

然而,我不能把文班亚马排在第一的最终原因,仅仅是出场时间的差异。在与另外两个伟大的赛季竞争时,比约基奇和谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大都少了400分钟的出场时间,这一点很难被忽视。

当约基奇打出了三分之二个历史级的赛季(在3月份因伤回归表现低迷之前,他本有望打破自己保持的PER纪录,最终只能屈居历史第二高纪录),并且在4月份与文班亚马的一场史诗级正面对决中不落下风时,这种差距就显得太大了。

最后是谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。他是俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的定海神针,尽管关键球员遭遇了伤病,雷霆仍赢下了64场比赛;在他出战的68场比赛中,球队战绩为56胜12负。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大在去年的MVP级赛季基础上进一步提升了效率,打出了惊人的66.5%真实命中率,得分排名联盟第二,同时防守端也表现出色。

他表现惊人且仍在进步,然而一年后,这可能还不够,因为文班亚马即将接管世界。但是,谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大是2025-26赛季的MVP。

最佳阵容第一阵容

  • 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大,俄克拉荷马城
  • 尼古拉·约基奇,丹佛
  • 维克托·文班亚马,圣安东尼奥
  • 科怀·伦纳德,洛杉矶快船
  • 杰伦·布朗,波士顿

本赛季联盟最好的五名球员都在西部,这是我在三月份详细写过的内容,所以我就不再赘述。

但让我补充一点:你意识到34岁的伦纳德在PER、BPM、真实命中率、三分球占比和罚球命中率上都创下了职业生涯新高,并且拥有职业生涯最高的得分率吗?他最初落选西部全明星阵容是本世纪最滑稽的全明星遗珠事件;他带着一支年迈、平庸、除他之外只有一个人会运球的快船阵容打出了一个成功的赛季,或许还能打进季后赛。而且他打了65场比赛!

回到西部五巨头:变数在于东契奇的腿筋伤势使他失去了入选第一阵容的资格。所以,我们现在有了四巨头以及……一个难以抉择的位置。由于坎宁安和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 也失去了资格,我以微弱优势将最后一个席位给了布朗,领先于多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)。

我理解反对布朗的理由——当他下场时波士顿凯尔特人表现更好,而且他的效率其实没那么高。但“在场/不在场”指标可能会受到投篮波动和阵容选择的影响(“嘿,杰伦,接下来的六分钟你带这四个没得分能力的球员打打看?”),而波士顿在杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 缺阵的情况下,依靠以布朗为核心的阵容依然保持在东部顶尖水平,这本身就说明了问题。

最佳阵容第二阵容

  • 多诺万·米切尔,克利夫兰
  • 杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren),底特律
  • 泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey),费城
  • 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant),休斯顿
  • 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson),亚特兰大

最佳阵容第三阵容

  • 杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson),纽约
  • 贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray),丹佛
  • 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija),波特兰
  • 埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley),克利夫兰
  • 拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball),夏洛特

第三阵容的评选确实非常棘手。令人惊讶地获得奖项资格的鲍尔,他在黄蜂队戏剧性复苏期间对进攻端的巨大影响并没有得到足够的关注,他是我最后一个入选的人选,排在纽约的卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、多伦多的斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)、休斯顿的阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 和俄克拉荷马城的切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 等人之前。

埃文·莫布里?是的。在我看来,由于一个略显令人失望的赛季,他受到了一些严重的忽视,但他在本赛季基本上仍是联盟最好的攻防兼备球员之一。至于布伦森,按他的标准来看今年并不算伟大,但在出场次数和时间上他碾压了大多数竞争对手;这依然很重要(也是马克西在我第二阵容中击败其他人的重要原因)。最后,向阿夫迪亚致敬,他成为了一支季后赛球队的高产量第一选择,这在24个月前任何理性的人都不会认为这有可能发生。

年度最佳第六人

  1. 凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson),圣安东尼奥
  2. 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.),迈阿密
  3. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid),明尼苏达

我认为上述三个名字及其顺序几乎没有争议,所以为了简明扼要,我们继续。

年度最佳教练

  1. 乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla),波士顿
  2. J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff),底特律
  3. 查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee),夏洛特

在年度最佳教练的竞争中,有五个名字脱颖而出:除了上述三位,还有圣安东尼奥的米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 和菲尼克斯的乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott),他们的胜场数都远超预期。

在这些超额完成任务的教练中,我认为马祖拉的成就最令人印象深刻。尽管失去了让体系运转的空间型中锋,且几乎整个赛季都没有头号进攻选择,他依然贯彻了同样的风格;波士顿在球员培养方面也做得非常出色,内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta)、贝勒·谢尔曼 (Baylor Scheierman)、雨果·冈萨雷斯 (Hugo González) 和乔丹·沃尔什 (Jordan Walsh) 等球员随时准备挺身而出,填补重要角色,帮助球队抵御了休赛期的巨大损失。

也要给比克斯塔夫一个大大的赞;没有哪位教练比他更契合球队的特质。活塞队在两个赛季内从14胜增长到60胜,靠的是从1号位到15号位都打得极其凶悍,偶尔还会打个架或领一两个技术犯规。与此同时,李带领一支毫无预期的夏洛特球队拿到了44场常规赛胜利,并打出了联盟第八好的净胜分。对于比克斯塔夫和李来说,球员培养也发挥了不容忽视的重要作用。

年度最佳新秀

  1. 康·纽佩尔 (Kon Knueppel),夏洛特
  2. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg),达拉斯
  3. 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper),圣安东尼奥

那么……当我们说“年度最佳新秀”时,我们指的是什么?我对这个问题的研究表明,它指的真的是“年度”最佳新秀,而不是试图预测球员职业生涯的未来。如果我们只看球员作为新秀的表现,纽佩尔效率更高,对赢球的影响更大,出场次数也更多。

当弗拉格仍处于通往巨星之路的起步阶段时,投票给纽佩尔似乎有些尴尬;在2025年的重选中,弗拉格依然会是状元。作为进攻引擎与作为无球威胁是完全不同(且更具挑战性)的任务,虽然纽佩尔可能已经是联盟中最好的无球球员,但这一角色的价值在身材高大、拥有持球能力的侧翼面前仍显得逊色。

弗拉格在三分线外投出了大量“打铁”,降低了一些价值;他在大学打大前锋,却被扔进了一个事实上的全职控卫角色,且阵容几乎没有空间,这对他也毫无帮助。无论如何,他还是把事情办成了。但他并没有像大学录像中预示的那样产生防守影响力,而且在经历新秀期的磨砺时,进攻端往往显得生涩。

在第三名的微弱差距中,我选择哈珀而不是 VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe);艾奇库姆因为整个赛季都首发,基础数据更好,但我认为哈珀在出场时间里的表现稍好一些,尤其是后期。两名球员都有全明星上限;这届选秀的前四名真是太棒了!

年度进步最快球员

  1. 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker),亚特兰大
  2. 杰伦·杜伦,底特律
  3. 内米亚斯·克塔,波士顿

荣誉提名:邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson),底特律

本赛季我看了很多亚历山大-沃克的比赛,他赛季最神奇的地方不仅在于他随着球权和触球次数的增加提高了场均得分,还在于随着赛季的进行,他依然在不断进步。

我已经写过这个了,但他把最好的表现留到了最后,在最后六周疯狂爆发,将老鹰队推入季后赛;他经常防守对方最好的外线球员,且制造进攻犯规数排名NBA第三。对于一个在第7年从场均9.4分跃升至20.8分,同时大幅提高效率(61.0%真实命中率!)的球员来说,这非常特别。

在亚历山大-沃克之后,我选择了两位故事早已广为人知的大个子。杜伦在得分率较去年几乎翻倍后入选了全明星,防守端的进步也足以让他成为联盟排名第二的防守单元的核心。克塔获得了我的第三张选票,在职业生涯第五个赛季成为了波士顿的首发中锋,而去年他场均仅出战13.9分钟,并证明了自己是联盟最强球队之一的合格首发。

最后,我们经常关注数字上的进步——时间、出手、命中率——但我们能谈谈防守上的进步吗?我认为罗宾逊在底特律取得的进步是现象级的,尤其是对于一名职业生涯已经走过这么长的球员来说。那个曾经因为一突就过而难以进入迈阿密轮换阵容的家伙,变成了一个积极、覆盖范围广的防守者,并帮助稳固了活塞队的首发阵容。


奥萨尔·汤普森在底特律防守试图突破禁区的斯科蒂·巴恩斯。(David Reginek / Imagn Images)

年度最佳防守球员 (DPOY)

  1. 废话
  2. 奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson),底特律
  3. 斯科蒂·巴恩斯,多伦多

我不确定这有什么好讨论的。汤普森在正常年份会赢,他是底特律坚不可摧的防守大闸,并在非中锋球员的“抢断+盖帽(Stocks)”统计中遥遥领先。但这并不是一个正常的年份。文班亚马在未来十年左右的时间里,只要每个赛季至少打65场比赛,可能每年都会赢得这个奖项,而且今年他可能会全票当选。

最佳防守阵容第一阵容

  • 维克托·文班亚马,圣安东尼奥
  • 奥萨尔·汤普森,底特律
  • 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert),明尼苏达
  • 斯科蒂·巴恩斯,多伦多
  • 德里克·怀特 (Derrick White),波士顿

最佳防守阵容第二阵容

  • OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby),纽约
  • 克里斯·邓恩 (Kris Dunn),洛杉矶快船
  • 切特·霍姆格伦,俄克拉荷马城
  • 埃文·莫布里,克利夫兰
  • 图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara),波特兰

我认为第一阵容非常明确;第二阵容则不然。我有12名球员竞争10个名额,而且这还是在只选了一名俄克拉荷马城历史级防守球员的情况下。雷霆队的强大更多在于防守人才的广度而非单一巨星,而且他们最好的防守者亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 离奖项资格还差得远,但即便如此……我们总得选个人吧?我在霍姆格伦、凯森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 和多尔特之间选择了前者。

卡马拉制造了103次进攻犯规(!),是除三名球员外所有人总数的两倍多,虽然他有时有点过于沉迷于假摔,但他对波士顿这支精英防守球队的影响是不可否认的。邓恩去年被资格规则坑了,本赛季打满了82场;他必须在名单上。如前所述,莫布里因为他和骑士队都略显令人失望而受到了过多的冷落,但让我们现实一点:如果你从零开始挑选10名球员来构建精英防守,作为一名能里能外的防守怪兽,他肯定在其中。

这让阿奴诺比要面对雷霆众将、休斯顿的阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)(我去年的DPOY人选)、明尼苏达的贾登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)、迈阿密的巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 以及亚特兰大的戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 和亚历山大-沃克。从视觉感受来看,我认为阿奴诺比是这组人中最令人印象深刻的。理性的人可以有不同意见,漏掉阿德巴约感觉不对,但我们只能写下10个名字。

年度最佳关键球员

  1. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大,俄克拉荷马城
  2. 凯德·坎宁安,底特律
  3. 斯科蒂·巴恩斯,多伦多

谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的MVP和关键球员理由相辅相成;他在前47分钟是最好的球员,然后在最关键的时刻加倍发力。考虑到他在比赛后期/比分胶着情况下的统治力数据,他赢得这个奖项可能比赢得MVP容易得多。

这不是受“65场规则”限制的赛季末荣誉之一,所以坎宁安和爱德华兹都有资格。接招吧,NBA!我把坎宁安排在第二位,但两名球员都是值得的选择。

最后……我们被允许考虑关键时刻的防守吗?巴恩斯做出了几次拯救比赛的防守动作,感觉他在这里并没有得到真正的考虑。我在我的虚拟选票中把他排在第三位。

由生成式人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

点击查看原文:SGA over Wembanyama for MVP, Knueppel beats out Flagg and more NBA awards picks

SGA over Wembanyama for MVP, Knueppel beats out Flagg and more NBA awards picks

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The league got the TV contract.

That’s the important thing to remember when contemplating the lunacy of the NBA’s 65-game rule for end-of-season award eligibility, a bizarre line in the sand that takes the bat out of the hands of voters and instead decides for them that Luka Dončić (2,289 minutes played in 64 games) is ineligible but voting for Tre Jones (1,755 minutes played in 65 games) is completely fine.

The events of the final weeks shone an appropriately harsh light on the silliness of the rule, with Dončić injuring his hamstring in his 64th game last week and Cade Cunningham limited to 64 games after suffering a collapsed lung in mid-March. On the season’s final weekend, players like Victor Wembanyama, Lu Dort and Nikola Jokić banged out their required 15-minute runs in low-value games they otherwise would have sat out; thankfully, none were hurt chasing a meaningless Game 65.

The NBA put in the rule as another layer of defense against stars sitting out too many regular-season games for rest and recovery and, in particular, to help assure their TV partners that the billions of dollars they would be paying for NBA inventory in the 2024 negotiation would have more Luka-vs-Wembys than Lucas Williamsons (a tanktacular minus-120 in seven games with the Memphis Grizzlies to close the season; Memphis’ 2-21 finish needs its own “30 for 30” episode).

The award-eligibility rule knocked out Dončić, Cunningham, Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker, among others, for MVP or All-NBA consideration, and nearly did the same to two likely top-three MVP finishers in Wembanyama and Jokić. It obviously needs changing. Either do away with it entirely or set the bar a bit lower (60 games feels way more reasonable; it would have allowed Cunningham, Dončić, Edwards and Booker to qualify and saved several others from having to make token appearances in meaningless games).

That said, the rule is the rule for the moment. Dončić and Cunningham have appealed via the “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge” language, but it’s unclear whether their cases will make much headway.

Regardless, their appeals could affect other votes. Consider this: Because of the delay in voting due to those appeals, voters will have seen Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s nationally televised Play-In Tournament games before submitting their ballots. Could this impact the vote for Rookie of the Year (after Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel struggled in the Hornets’ Play-In victory), or for LaMelo Ball or Deni Avdija for All-NBA or some other category? Technically, voters aren’t supposed to consider Play-In games, which is why the vote is scheduled to be wrapped up before those games tip off, but rules are powerless against human nature.

With all of that as the backdrop, here’s how I would vote for NBA awards this season. (I will note that I do not have an award ballot, so this is a theoretical exercise, but it’s one I take seriously.)

Most Valuable Player

  1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City
  2. Nikola Jokić, Denver
  3. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio

… (a yawning gap) …

  1. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers

… (the entire Grand Canyon) …

  1. Jaylen Brown, Boston

OK, let’s talk about Victor.

I left Wembanyama out of my post-All-Star breakout piece last week because I wanted to discuss him separately. TL;DR: He’s been ridiculous. There is a very strong case that Wembanyama has been the best player in the NBA since the All-Star break, and that he will hold the conch for a very long time.

In 24 games since the break, his net rating is a mind-blowing plus-25.6. Yes: In Wembanyama’s average minutes against an average opponent, the San Antonio Spurs totally ran the other team off the floor. Wembanyama’s first half of the season was amazing enough, but he upped his scoring and true shooting slightly after the break, cut his turnovers sharply, dialed up his rebounding and blocked nearly four shots a game. His team went 22-2. Holy moly.

Wembanyama led the league in blocks, defensive rebounding and defensive BPM and might win Defensive Player of the Year unanimously. Offensively, he’s a rim-running and transition threat who can also make deep 3s, run pick-and-rolls against opposing centers and is increasingly comfortable with the physicality that gave him a hard time as a rookie.

I won’t be shocked if he outplays Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander in the playoffs. He’s amazing, and his time is here … but that doesn’t make him the MVP.

For starters, this award is for the most valuable player for the entire regular season, and the first two-thirds of the season still count. Secondly, the argument that “defense is half the game” is true for teams but not necessarily for individuals. Star players, even stars who defend at Wembanyama’s level, have more chances to impact the game on offense because their team gets to choose how often the ball is in their hands; on defense, it’s almost the opposite, with opponents avoiding Wemby and targeting their attacks against the worst defender on the court.

The final reason I can’t put Wembanyama first, however, is simply the minutes disparity. When going up against two other awesome seasons, a 400-minute deficit against both Jokić and SGA is hard to ignore.

That’s just too great a difference to ignore when Jokić played two-thirds of a historic season (he was on pace to smash his own PER record before a sluggish return from injury in March forced him to settle for merely the second-best mark in history) and notably held his own in an epic mano-a-mano battle with Wembanyama in April.

And finally, there’s SGA. He was the rock for an Oklahoma City Thunder team that won 64 games despite low-key getting hammered by injuries to key players; they went 56-12 in the 68 games he played. Gilgeous-Alexander improved on his MVP season of a year ago by dialing up his efficiency even further, posting an absurd 66.5 true shooting percentage while finishing second in scoring and still playing commendable defense.

He was amazing and is still getting better, and yet a year from now, that still might not be enough because Wembanyama is about to take over the world. SGA, however, is the MVP of the 2025-26 season.

All-NBA First Team

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City
  • Nikola Jokić, Denver
  • Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio
  • Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
  • Jaylen Brown, Boston

The five best players in the league all played in the Western Conference this season, something I wrote on extensively in March, so I won’t repeat myself too much.

But let me add one point: Do you realize the 34-year-old Leonard set career bests in PER, BPM, true shooting percentage, 3-point rate and free-throw percentage and had the highest scoring rate of his career? His initial exclusion from the West All-Star team was the single most hilarious All-Star snub of this century; he carried an old, uninspiring Clippers roster with one other guy who could dribble to a winning season and, perhaps, a playoff berth. And he played in 65 games!

Back to the Big Five from the West: The wrinkle was that Dončić’s hamstring injury has made him ineligible for a first-team selection. So, instead we have the Big Four and … a toss-up. With Cunningham and Giannis Antetokounmpo also ineligible for selection, I gave the last spot to Brown by a nose over Donovan Mitchell.

I get the argument against Brown — the Boston Celtics were better when he was off the court, and he’s not actually all that efficient. But an on-off metric scan can be skewed by shooting variance and lineup choices (“Hey, Jaylen, why don’t you carry this unit with four non-scorers for the next six minutes?”), and Boston’s ability to stay among the East’s elite with a Brown-centered team in Jayson Tatum’s absence speaks for itself.

All-NBA Second Team

  • Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland
  • Jalen Duren, Detroit
  • Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia
  • Kevin Durant, Houston
  • Jalen Johnson, Atlanta

All-NBA Third Team

  • Jalen Brunson, New York
  • Jamal Murray, Denver
  • Deni Avdija, Portland
  • Evan Mobley, Cleveland
  • LaMelo Ball, Charlotte

The third team is where this really gets tricky. The shockingly award-eligible Ball isn’t getting enough shine for his phenomenal impact on the Hornets’ offense during their dramatic resurgence, and he was my last selection over New York’s Karl-Anthony Towns, Toronto’s Scottie Barnes, Houston’s Alperen Şengün and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren, among others.

Evan Mobley? Yes. To me, he is getting some seriously short shrift based on a mildly disappointing season in which he was still basically one of the league’s best two-way forces. As for Brunson, he didn’t have a great year by his standards but crushes most of his competition in games and minutes; that still matters (and is a big reason Maxey beat out others on my second team). Finally, shout out to Avdija for becoming a high-volume first option for a postseason team, a thing that no reasonable person would have thought possible as recently as 24 months ago.

Sixth Man of the Year

  1. Keldon Johnson, San Antonio
  2. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami
  3. Naz Reid, Minnesota

I think there’s relatively little debate on the three names above and the correct order for them, so, in the interests of brevity, let’s keep it moving.

Coach of the Year

  1. Joe Mazzulla, Boston
  2. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit
  3. Charles Lee, Charlotte

Five names stand out in the Coach of the Year race: The three men above, plus San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson and Phoenix’s Jordan Ott, all won far more than anyone had any right to expect.

Of those five overachievers, I’ll argue Mazzulla’s accomplishment was the most impressive, imposing more or less the same style despite losing the floor-spacing center that made it go and the No. 1 offensive option for nearly the entire season; Boston clearly did a great job on the player development front as well, helping it withstand huge offseason losses by having players like Neemias Queta, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo González and Jordan Walsh ready to step up and fill major roles.

Let’s give a strong shoutout to Bickerstaff, as well; no coach feels more connected to his team’s identity. The Pistons went from 14 wins to 60 in two seasons by playing ferociously hard from one through 15 and maybe starting a fight or getting a tech or two along the way. Lee, meanwhile, took a Charlotte team with zero expectations to 44 regular-season wins and the league’s eighth-best scoring margin. For both Bickerstaff and Lee, player development also played major roles that shouldn’t go unrecognized.

Rookie of the Year

  1. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte
  2. Cooper Flagg, Dallas
  3. Dylan Harper, San Antonio

So … what do we mean when we say “Rookie of the Year”? My research on this question indicates that it really means the Rookie of the Year and is not any attempt to project forward on the rest of a player’s career. And if we’re just going by how the player performed as a rookie, Knueppel was more efficient, had more impact on winning and played more games.

It seems awkward to pull the lever for Knueppel when Flagg is still on the first floor of his elevator ride to stardom; he still goes first in a 2025 redraft. Being the offense’s engine is a completely different (and more challenging) assignment than being an off-ball threat, and while Knueppel might already be the best off-ball player in the league, the value of that role still pales behind that of a big, ballhandling wing.

Flagg lowered some of that value by shooting a bunch of bricks from the perimeter; he also wasn’t helped by being thrown into a de facto full-time point guard role after playing power forward in college and in lineups with little to no spacing. Somehow, some way, he got things done anyway. But he didn’t have the defensive impact that his college tape portended, and the offense was often clunky as he took his rookie lumps.

I’d take Harper in a close call over VJ Edgecombe for third; Edgecombe has better counting stats because he started all season, but I thought Harper played a bit better in his minutes, especially late. Both players have All-Star ceilings; what a top four this draft gave us!

Most Improved Player

  1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta
  2. Jalen Duren, Detroit
  3. Neemias Queta, Boston

Honorable mention: Duncan Robinson, Detroit

I saw Alexander-Walker a lot this season, and the amazing part of his season wasn’t just that he upped his scoring average with increased volume and touches, but that he also kept improving even as the year went on.

I wrote about this already, but he saved his best for last and went on a giant heater the final six weeks to push the Hawks into the playoffs; he did this while often guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player and ranking third in the NBA in offensive fouls drawn. For a guy in Year 7 to jump from 9.4 points per game to 20.8 points per game while also massively increasing his efficiency (61.0 percent true shooting!) is pretty special.

After Alexander-Walker, I went with two bigs whose stories have been well-documented. Duren made the All-Star team after nearly doubling his scoring rate from a year ago and also improved his defense enough that he anchored the league’s second-ranked unit. Queta gets my third-place vote, taking over as Boston’s starting center in his fifth pro season after only playing 13.9 minutes a game a year ago and proving himself a plus-starter on one of the league’s best teams.

Finally, we often focus on numerical improvements — minutes, shots, percentages — but can we talk about defensive improvements? I thought the jump Robinson made in Detroit was phenomenal, especially for a player so far into his career. The same guy who struggled to stay in Miami’s rotation because he was insta-toast turned into an active, rangy defender and helped cement the Pistons’ starting lineup.


Ausar Thompson defends as Scottie Barnes looks to drive to the lane in Detroit. (David Reginek / Imagn Images)

Defensive Player of the Year

  1. Duh
  2. Ausar Thompson, Detroit
  3. Scottie Barnes, Toronto

Not sure there’s a lot to discuss. Thompson would win in a normal year, acting as the impregnable defensive stopper in Detroit and leading non-centers in “stocks” (steals + blocks) by a massive margin. But this was not a normal year. Wembanyama will likely win this award every year in which he plays at least 65 games for the next decade or so and may win unanimously this year.

All-Defensive First Team

  • Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio
  • Ausar Thompson, Detroit
  • Rudy Gobert, Minnesota
  • Scottie Barnes, Toronto
  • Derrick White, Boston

All-Defensive Second Team

  • OG Anunoby, New York
  • Kris Dunn, LA Clippers
  • Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City
  • Evan Mobley, Cleveland
  • Toumani Camara, Portland

I think the first team is pretty straightforward; the second team is not. I had 12 players for 10 spots, and that was with only one player from Oklahoma City’s all-time great defense. The Thunder do it more with the breadth of defensive talent than a single superstar, and their best defender (Alex Caruso) was a million miles short of being award-eligible, but still … we gotta have somebody here, right? I went with Holmgren over Cason Wallace and Dort.

Camara drew 103 offensive fouls (!), more than double the total of all but three players, and while he at times leaned into floppery a bit too much, his impact on an elite defensive squad in Portland was undeniable. Dunn got shafted a year ago by the eligibility rule and played all 82 games this season; he has to be on the list. Mobley, as noted above, is getting dumped on a bit too much because both he and the Cavaliers were mildly disappointing, but let’s be real: If you’re picking 10 players from scratch to build out an elite defense, he’s certainly somewhere in the 10 as a shape-shifting, inside-out monster.

That leaves Anunoby up against the Thunderbuddies, Houston’s Amen Thompson (my DPOY pick a year ago), Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels, Miami’s Bam Adebayo and Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels and Alexander-Walker. Eye-test-wise, I just thought Anunoby was the most impressive of that group. Reasonable people can disagree, and leaving out Adebayo feels wrong, but we can write down only 10 names.

Clutch Player of the Year

  1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City
  2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit
  3. Scottie Barnes, Toronto

SGA’s MVP and Clutch Player cases reinforce each other; he was the best player for the first 47 minutes, then doubled down when it mattered most. He’ll probably win this award much more easily than the MVP, given how dominant his numbers were in late/close situations.

This isn’t one of the end-of-season honors that is subject to the 65-game rule, so Cunningham and Edwards are eligible. Take that, NBA! I’ll put Cunningham in my second spot, but both players are worthy choices.

Finally … are we allowed to consider clutch defense? Barnes made several game-saving defensive plays, and it feels like he isn’t really getting any consideration here. I’m putting him third on my imaginary ballot.

By John Hollinger, via The Athletic