[ESPN] 2026年NBA季后赛：深度解析20支争冠球队

[ESPN]

By NBA insiders, 2026-04-18 13:00:00

2026年NBA季后赛正式拉开帷幕。

常规赛最后一轮于4月12日落下帷幕，联盟30支球队悉数登场，为这轮82场的征程画上句号。一些高位种子球队为他们极具统治力的赛季锦上添花，而排名垫底的球队也完成了为5月10日选秀乐透抽签而进行的最后“摆烂”冲刺。

在东西部各有四支球队参加附加赛后，共有16支球队脱颖而出，继续争夺在6月举行的捧起拉里·奥布莱恩杯的机会。

我们的NBA内幕专家对所有20支参加季后赛/附加赛的球队进行了深度解析，涵盖了他们的首轮及附加赛对阵、最大的疑问以及在通往2026年总决赛征程中值得关注的关键球员。

注：2026年NBA季后赛赔率由DraftKings提供。

跳转至特定球队：
ATL | BOS | CHA | CLE | DEN
DET | GS | HOU | LAC | LAL
MIA | MIN | NYK | OKC | ORL
PHI | PHX | POR | SA | TOR
季后赛对阵图、赛程及新闻

哪些NBA超级巨星将在2026年总决赛中交锋？征程将于周二开始。ESPN

东部联盟

1. 底特律活塞 (60-22)

首轮对阵： 奥兰多魔术
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 44.2%
夺冠赔率： +2200

首轮看点：

这是活塞队史上最出色的赛季之一，其动力源自防守、强度和身体对抗，而这些正是底特律历史上几乎每一支伟大球队的标志。但这支东部头号种子能否产生足够的进攻火力，从而自2005年以来首次闯入总决赛？凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 已经兑现了他作为2021年状元秀的潜力，但他身后的进攻选择大多尚未经过季后赛考验。魔术队在统治了黄蜂队并锁定季后赛最后一个席位后，将考验活塞队在比分板上紧跟对手的能力。 —— 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)

季后赛的一大疑问：

坎宁安是否完全健康？活塞在常规赛末段表现稳健，在缺少当家球星的情况下锁定了联盟最佳战绩。坎宁安在上周的两场比赛中找回了一些状态，但季后赛深入的前景取决于他从肺部塌陷（气胸）中恢复后的反弹情况。尽管未能达到65场比赛的出场门槛，但坎宁安本赛季仍是联盟最佳球员之一，看起来锁定了一个最佳阵容席位。底特律需要坎宁安保持这种水准。 —— 科利尔

能影响首轮走势的球员：

坎宁安。我研究过如果失去当家球星，各支球队会下滑多少，结果显示活塞只会跌至第四。但顶级球员伤愈复出可能会带来节奏上的生涩。坎宁安在上周三对阵一支摆烂球队时复出并表现出色，但摆烂球队不是试金石。当活塞面对季后赛级别的窒息防守时，坎宁安必须避免强打，并在防守端保持专注。 —— 迪恩·奥利弗 (Dean Oliver)

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

闯入第二轮。虽然东部决赛似乎应该是最低目标，但重要的是要记住，这支球队距离那个灾难性的14胜赛季仅过去了两年。2024年，雷霆队以57胜并列西部第一，却在分区半决赛被独行侠队淘汰。底特律选择不在交易截止日进行大动作，部分原因是不想拔苗助长，也不想过早给一支上升期的年轻球队施加夺冠压力。 —— 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)

关键数据： 底特律是过去15个赛季中第三支在抢断和盖帽榜上均领跑全联盟的球队（另外两支是2021-22赛季的灰熊和2016-17赛季的勇士）。

投注小贴士： 在常规赛最后一个月坎宁安缺阵的11场比赛中，活塞打出了+9.5的净效率，仅略低于他在场时的+10.9。没有他，他们的进攻每百回合从119.7下降到108.5，但在那段时期依然平均达到115.8，同时防守有所提升。活塞在缺少球星的情况下维持精英级效率的能力，增强了他们作为竞争者的可信度。目前他们夺得东部冠军的赔率排名第四（+500），夺冠赔率排名第七（+2200），市场可能仍低估了他们。 —— 埃里克·穆迪 (Eric Moody)

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2. 波士顿凯尔特人 (56-26)

首轮对阵： 费城76人
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 26.4%
夺冠赔率： +550

首轮看点：

波士顿的中锋轮换表现如何？内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta) 和卢卡·加尔扎 (Luka Garza) 从未被委以季后赛重任，而老将尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vucevic) 从未闯过首轮。如果波士顿想要实现预期的季后赛深度，这组内线将面临考验。 —— 蒂姆·邦唐 (Tim Bontemps)

季后赛的一大疑问：

杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的状态会如何？在跟腱撕裂不到一年后就能重返赛场，并迅速赢得一次分区周最佳球员，这本身就是一个了不起的回归。但对于波士顿来说，若想成为真正的冠军威胁，塔图姆需要恢复到更接近伤前的水准。 —— 邦唐

能影响首轮走势的球员：

佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard)。凯尔特人是一台能够根据对手调整的机器，但如果说有哪位球员的表现具有波动性，那就是普里查德。他是本赛季表现最不稳定的30名球员之一，打出了23场好球和17场糟糕的比赛（平均表现为+37）。如果凯尔特人面对夏洛特凶悍的首发阵容，他们承担不起普里查德的低迷：波士顿本赛季最惨痛的一场失利是3月4日主场负于黄蜂，那是普里查德表现最差的一场。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

闯入分区决赛。从某种程度上说，塔图姆的回归让波士顿处于一种“稳赚不赔”的境地。他的复出早于预期，看起来已经恢复了相当程度的自我，并与MVP竞争者杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 互换了领袖位置。上赛季作为卫冕冠军在第二轮出局，如今在原本被认为是“过渡年”的赛季重返东部前二，这对球队来说已经是一次巨大的胜利。但在东部，更进一步永远是他们的目标。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 凯尔特人场均内线失分为40.1分，这是自2019-20赛季雄鹿队（38.7分）以来的单赛季最低纪录。

投注小贴士： 防守赢得冠军：过去25支冠军球队中有22支在常规赛防守效率榜上排名前10。凯尔特人的进攻效率排名第二，防守效率排名第四。值得注意的是，过去25支冠军球队中有23支在进攻或防守效率中至少有一项排名前五。在塔图姆和布朗的带领下，波士顿在攻防两端都具备真正的冠军相，+550的夺冠赔率具有很高的价值。 —— 穆迪

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3. 纽约尼克斯 (53-29)

首轮对阵： 亚特兰大老鹰
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 21.5%
夺冠赔率： +1800

首轮看点：

尼克斯能否尽早解决战斗，为可能与凯尔特人的再次交锋赢得足够的休息时间。这意味着杰伦·布朗森 (Jalen Brunson) 需要继续信任他的队友，如乔什·哈特 (Josh Hart)，更重要的是卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)。自上赛季结束以来，尼克斯所做的一切都是为了这一刻。解雇汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau)，聘请迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown)，没有全力报价扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)。如果能以应有的严肃态度对待首轮，而不是像本赛季某些时刻那样注意力涣散，将证明这些决定是值得的——至少目前如此。 —— 古德威尔

季后赛的一大疑问：

唐斯能否成为纽约需要的真正第二选择？他在赛季下半程表现更高效，但他需要通过拼抢篮板寻找进攻机会，而不是让所有战术都围绕他展开。唐斯和布朗森最近建立了默契，但在本届季后赛中，唐斯面临的压力比任何球星都要大。 —— 古德威尔

能影响首轮走势的球员：

米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)。尼克斯在对阵弱旅时表现神勇，但在对阵强队时表现平平。谁的下滑最明显？是罗宾逊，而且是在攻防两端。优秀的防守体系能很好地限制他，且对手愿意对他犯规送他上罚球线，他不到50%的罚球命中率意味着“砍米切尔”战术可能从开场就上演。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

闯入总决赛。如果这还不够明显，尼克斯老板詹姆斯·多兰 (James Dolan) 在1月份的纽约广播节目中已经下达了通牒。打进分区决赛仅仅够让锡伯杜被解雇。击败波士顿、底特律、克利夫兰或其他任何球队只是最低要求。尼克斯是为了本赛季夺冠而组建的，如果再次功亏一篑，可能会引发某些层面的连锁反应。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 尼克斯本赛季主场场均净胜10.0分，在NBA排名第三，仅次于雷霆（11.7分）和活塞（10.5分）。

投注小贴士： 赔率显示尼克斯在对阵亚特兰大的系列赛中占据优势，考虑到他们拥有唐斯和罗宾逊的体型和篮板优势，这很合理。虽然纽约最近的三分产量和效率有所下降，但他们全赛季的三分命中率仍排名前五。考虑到双方前三次交手中两场分差仅为3分，尼克斯的身体对抗能力可能是这轮势均力敌系列赛的胜负手，大5.5场（-150）值得考虑。 —— 穆迪

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4. 克利夫兰骑士 (52-30)

首轮对阵： 多伦多猛龙
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 4.0%
夺冠赔率： +1600

首轮看点：

这支骑士队可以说为詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 提供了救赎以往季后赛失利的最佳机会，首轮将是观察他如何应对的第一道窗口。无论克利夫兰首轮对阵谁，哈登职业生涯的季后赛短板都不会轻易被抹平，但这将是观察这支球队在真正压力下表现的首个机会。哈登坐镇一支不需要他承担过多得分重担的球队时将如何运作？他与多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 在场上，尤其是比赛末段如何协作？ —— 科利尔

季后赛的一大疑问：

骑士的“四巨头”是否有足够的磨合时间？由于一系列不合时宜的伤病，米切尔、哈登、埃文·莫布利 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 这四人组在常规赛最后一周前仅共同出战了6场比赛，总计76分钟。好消息是，在这些时间里，骑士净胜对手35分，但在季后赛舞台开打前，对于球队核心球员来说，这个样本量实在太小了。 —— 科利尔

能影响首轮走势的球员：

哈登。克利夫兰的关键在于谁能作为米切尔的后手。米切尔极大程度上决定了骑士的胜负，当他低迷时，全队都会陷入低谷。去年第二轮出局时，米切尔有几场表现不佳，队友们未能挺身而出。在今年的季后赛中，哈登、阿伦或莫布利需要成为那个能够提供反击火力的关键人物。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

闯入分区决赛。自1992年以来，骑士在没有勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的情况下从未走得那么远，而当家球星米切尔也从未突破过第二轮。在交易截止日前得到哈登，无疑进一步拔高了外界的期望。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 骑士本赛季在落后进入第四节的情况下赢下了14场比赛，为全联盟最多。

投注小贴士： 自得到哈登以来，骑士取得了20胜6负的战绩，哈登场均贡献20.5分和7.7次助攻，帮助球队在全明星赛后的进攻效率升至第五。但克利夫兰全赛季的防守效率仅排在第12位，且在对阵东部对手时的让分盘战绩为20胜32负。对于一支志在夺冠的球队来说，这种不平衡是不容忽视的。 —— 穆迪

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5. 多伦多猛龙 (46-36)

首轮对阵： 克利夫兰骑士
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 2.0%
夺冠赔率： +25000

首轮看点：

猛龙在面对尼克斯时几乎毫无胜算，本赛季五战皆负，包括上周五晚的比赛。但多亏了奥兰多负于波士顿，猛龙得以避开尼克斯，转而面对克利夫兰——他们在常规赛三场横扫了对手。需要注意的是，这些比赛都发生在11月25日之前，但能锁定对阵骑士的系列赛对多伦多来说仍是一场重大胜利。

季后赛的一大疑问：

斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 准备好迎接聚光灯了吗？在经历了新秀赛季的客串角色后，这是巴恩斯首次作为季后赛球队的领军人物。他将如何应对这一挑战？他能否带领多伦多完成首轮下克上？ —— 邦唐

能影响首轮走势的球员：

贾科比·沃尔特 (Ja’Kobe Walter)。在万圣节到感恩节之间，猛龙打出了13胜1负。那段时间发生了什么？他们打的都是弱旅——非常弱的球队。这支猛龙擅长虐菜。但在对阵强队时，布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 表现不佳，贾马尔·谢德 (Jamal Shead) 表现更差，而沃尔特则是最差的。如果猛龙想要赢下系列赛，这些人中至少得有一两个真正站出来。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

给豪强制造麻烦。猛龙看起来还不具备真正撼动东部顶级梯队的能力，至少不像外界看待老鹰甚至手感滚烫的黄蜂那样。自12月打出12胜3负以来，多伦多在剩余赛季的表现基本维持在五成胜率。如果能凭借长臂林立的防守在首轮让对手惊出一身冷汗，那么对于这支身处北境、表现已超出预期的球队来说，这个赛季就足以圆满收官了。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 猛龙场均快攻得分（18.9分）领跑全联盟，且快攻失分（12.5分）为全联盟第二少。他们+6.3的快攻净胜分是自2018-19赛季以来的单队最高纪录。

投注小贴士： 猛龙的延续性和球权移动（场均29.5次助攻，联盟第三）结合前五的防守（112.2效率），使他们成为比预期更难缠的对手：他们赢下系列赛的赔率为+425。虽然多伦多的进攻处于平均水平，但他们限制对手打出高潮并保持团队作战的能力让他们具有韧性。猛龙有实力将系列赛拖入5.5场以上（-110）。常规赛期间，猛龙对阵骑士的战绩为3胜0负。 —— 穆迪

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6. 亚特兰大老鹰 (46-36)

首轮对阵： 纽约尼克斯
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 1.1%
夺冠赔率： +13000

首轮看点：

在杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 在特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 受伤期间接过指挥权后，老鹰果断转型，交易走了杨和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯。在经历20胜25负的开局后，亚特兰大在接下来的35场比赛中打出了25胜10负，以奎因·斯奈德 (Quin Snyder) 渴望的方式运转球。约翰逊是一颗冉冉升起的明星。尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 是休赛期最佳引援之一，他和CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 都拥有深厚的季后赛经验，两人都曾打入过西部决赛。乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 希望能延续上赛季季后赛第二轮在斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 受伤后对阵明尼苏达时场均20.8分的表现。 —— 欧姆·永米苏克 (Ohm Youngmisuk)

季后赛的一大疑问：

约翰逊能否将自己的比赛提升到新的层次？这位全能前锋在本赛季成长为全明星。现在，他自2023年以来首次重返季后赛，但这一次他是老鹰队的头号选择。对于这位24岁球员的成长来说，这将是一次无价的经历，他将在尼克斯针对性的防守下考验自己的三双技巧。上周在输给尼克斯和骑士的比赛中，约翰逊体验到了季后赛级别的防守，他合计35投12中并有一次犯满离场。接下来的挑战只会更艰巨，但这是约翰逊迈向顶级球星的必经之路。 —— 永米苏克

能影响首轮走势的球员：

亚历山大-沃克。 约翰逊是老鹰的头号球星，但亚历山大-沃克是他们的二号人物。亚历山大-沃克的“门槛胜场”排名全队第二，即他的表现足以带动球队获胜。他在关键时刻的表现——或者说缺乏关键表现——对亚特兰大尤为重要。约翰逊表现一直很好，但对手防守端心知肚明，很可能会迫使像亚历山大-沃克这样的人去击败他们。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

完成首轮下克上。在赛季开始前且杨还在阵中时，老鹰曾被视为黑马。但直到交易走杨和波尔津吉斯后，他们才真正贯彻了斯奈德的战术蓝图：亚特兰大在全明星赛后凭借精英级的投射和极具破坏力的防守打出了19胜5负。这并不容易，甚至可能性不大，但考虑到老鹰未能达到季前的高预期，首轮突围将是这支年轻阵容迈出的重要一步。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 老鹰场均助攻30.1次领跑全联盟，创下队史单赛季纪录。根据GeniusIQ的数据，他们通过助攻场均产生78.7分，同样位居联盟榜首。

投注小贴士： 亚特兰大带着火热状态进入系列赛，全明星赛后取得20胜6负，三分产量和效率均排名前10。本赛季老鹰对阵纽约的让分盘战绩为2胜1负。凭借场均30.1次助攻带来的流畅进攻，亚特兰大有能力超出预期，并将系列赛拖得比市场预测（尼克斯赢下系列赛赔率为-290）更久。 —— 穆迪

东部附加赛

7. 费城76人 (45-37)

附加赛首场对阵： 奥兰多魔术
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.3%
夺冠赔率： +17000

附加赛看点：

76人带着冲冠预期开启了2024-25赛季，结果却遭遇了惨烈的崩盘。本赛季，他们几乎是在毫无预期的情况下打进季后赛的，而且——至少在理论上——他们拥有在开放的东部走得更远的球员配置。 —— 邦唐

季后赛的一大疑问：

费城能否保持健康？对于一支不断处理健康问题（尤其是乔尔·恩比德）的球队来说，能否成为季后赛的搅局者，完全取决于76人能否让主力阵容齐整地站在场上。 —— 邦唐

能影响首轮走势的球员：

泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)。76人大部分的球队表现都是累加式的。加上马克西，他们每场能多得2.3分净胜分；加上保罗·乔治，多得1.7分；恩比德则增加2.1分。球队希望整个赛季都在这些球员之间建立化学反应，从而产生大于累加的效果。但这支阵容的大部分球员整个赛季都在“吃着爆米花看马克西表演”。他一个人无法带队走得太远。他很特别，看他打球很有趣，但如果他被限制住，76人就会停滞。仅仅把乔治和恩比德加到马克西身边能让他们变强，但现在本质上是马克西的工作去领导这支球队，这意味着要确保化学反应产生“1+1>2”的效果。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

事已至此，闯过附加赛对76人来说就算是一种救赎了。随着恩比德因紧急阑尾切除术导致季后赛前景不明，很难对这支球队寄予厚望。这是一个充满了断断续续和潜力闪现的赛季，但指望马克西独自一人带队杀入首轮是不公平的。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 本赛季恩比德、乔治和马克西共同出战时，76人的战绩为11胜10负。三人同场时，场均净胜分为+1.6。

投注小贴士： 76人本赛季在没有恩比德的情况下战绩为19胜22负，对阵魔术的让分盘战绩为2胜1负，其中两场打出大分。但有理由反向操作。缺少恩比德的费城缺乏进攻火力，而奥兰多的内线体型可能会制造对位麻烦。此外，马克西目前正带着手指伤势作战。 —— 埃里克·穆迪

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8. 奥兰多魔术 (45-37)

附加赛首场对阵： 费城76人
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.5%
夺冠赔率： +35000

附加赛看点：

对于魔术来说，这是一个令人失望且缺乏延续性的赛季。在交易得到德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 后，他们曾满怀在东部竞争的希望。但奥兰多再次遭遇伤病困扰，弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 缺席了超过半个赛季。魔术本应是一支防守强队，但他们有时显得心不在焉。瓦格纳和安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black) 的回归至关重要，奥兰多将寻求通过展现其建队初衷——在季后赛赢球——来挽救这个令人沮丧的赛季。为了实现这一目标，魔术必须先在费城取胜。 —— 永米苏克

季后赛的一大疑问：

保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)、瓦格纳和贝恩能否成为魔术构想中的强大三巨头？他们投入了三个无保护首轮签和一个首轮互换权得到贝恩，就是为了提供魔术迫切需要的外线投射、领导力和季后赛经验。奥兰多从未预料到会沦落到打附加赛。魔术能否证明，在贝恩的外线牵制下，班凯罗和瓦格纳能在季后赛环境中与精英级防守相辅相成？或者奥兰多会再次折戟，迫使管理层在休赛期重新考虑如何让这支东部竞争者重回正轨？ —— 永米苏克

能影响首轮走势的球员：

瓦格纳。上赛季初班凯罗倒下时，瓦格纳花了大约五场比赛才适应带队。本赛季伤愈复出后，他也花了大约五场比赛才找回节奏。如果奥兰多想要有所作为，瓦格纳必须找回状态——否则他们只能早早去度假了。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

闯入第二轮。这支球队可不是在“玩票”。他们准确地识别出远投是上赛季的问题，并以四个首轮签的高昂代价换来了贝恩。仅仅闯出附加赛（考虑到原本的预期是远超附加赛区）可能还不够。奥兰多内部一些重要人物的前途正备受关注，或许只有一场首轮下克上才能改变命运。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 魔术在本赛季落后10分或更多的比赛中赢下了18场，与骑士并列全联盟第一。

投注小贴士： 奥兰多本赛季在关键时刻的表现非常出色，但这并未完全转化为投注价值。魔术对阵费城的让分盘战绩仅为1-2，且作为客场下盘球队的战绩为10胜10负，这可能会让博彩者担忧。然而，瓦格纳、班凯罗和温德尔·卡特 (Wendell Carter Jr.) 的体型可能会给缺少恩比德的76人制造麻烦。 —— 穆迪

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9. 夏洛特黄蜂 (44-38)

附加赛首场对阵： 迈阿密热火
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.0%
夺冠赔率： +17000

附加赛看点：

黄蜂作为状态最火热、最危险的球队之一进入附加赛。1月2日时，夏洛特的战绩仅为11胜23负，随后在接下来的45场比赛中赢下了32场。黄蜂必须闯出附加赛才能打破他们九年的季后赛荒（目前联盟最长纪录）。他们渴望通过击败雷霆、凯尔特人、湖人、掘金和尼克斯所积累的信心制造一些动静。夏洛特打法快速且无所畏惧，决心改变过去十年“老样子黄蜂”的刻板印象。 —— 永米苏克

季后赛的一大疑问：

拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 和新秀红人康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 能否延续火热手感？季后赛是完全不同的野兽，防守端会更加强调身体对抗，并试图切断黄蜂一直行之有效的掩护配合。鲍尔正打出职业生涯最佳赛季，出场时间更少，出手也更精简。他想证明自己能在季后赛赢球，必须打得更克制，减少失误，并在防守端顶住压力。克努佩尔则需要思考如何破解旨在限制黄蜂三分球的季后赛防守。最重要的是，夏洛特版的“水花兄弟”必须帮助球队在关键时刻表现得更好，这是他们本赛季一直挣扎的地方。 —— 永米苏克

能影响首轮走势的球员：

布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller)。他既能打出极其糟糕的比赛，也能打出伟大的比赛；从数据上看，他是黄蜂阵中最不稳定的球员。面对首轮的高位种子，夏洛特需要像米勒这样的“X因素”来迫使夺冠热门改变比赛计划。但黄蜂也希望能够保持领先，因为他们的关键时刻胜率是所有潜在季后赛球队中最低的。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

其实已经算成功了。黄蜂是下半赛季的惊喜，从胜率低于五成12场一跃成为新年后全联盟最强劲的进攻球队之一（自1月以来每百回合得分120.8分）。没有人预料到他们会出现在季后赛版图中，所以鲍尔、克努佩尔及其队友在季后赛取得的任何成就都是额外奖励，也是下赛季极好的基石。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 当黄蜂赢球时，通常是大胜。他们场均18.2分的胜分差创下了NBA历史纪录。

投注小贴士： 黄蜂是全明星赛后最具竞争力的球队之一，进攻效率排名第二，防守效率排名第七，战绩为18胜9负。夏洛特本赛季主场作为让分方时的战绩为14胜7负。鲍尔在全明星赛后的爆发推动了夏洛特的崛起，但他能否在季后赛维持这种表现是真正的疑问。本赛季对阵迈阿密的三场比赛中，他场均贡献23.7分和9.0次助攻。 —— 穆迪

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10. 迈阿密热火 (43-39)

附加赛首场对阵： 夏洛特黄蜂
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.0%
夺冠赔率： +70000

附加赛看点：

即使在吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 离去很久之后，热火依然经历了一个过山车般的赛季。迈阿密的进攻开局火爆，但球队在2月下旬仅维持在五成胜率上方。热火曾取得七连胜，并见证了巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 在3月初狂砍83分，但随后在13场比赛中输掉了10场。迈阿密的防守出现下滑，自3月6日以来有13次失分达到120分或更多。 —— 永米苏克

季后赛的一大疑问：

埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra) 能否再次施展他的季后赛魔法？迈阿密已经连续三次从附加赛中突围。尽管赛季表现反复无常，但热火深知自己有能力从附加赛杀出血路。但斯波尔斯特拉需要健康的泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 和诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 在外线发威，同时阿德巴约在场上无处不在并稳固防守。如果他们真的闯出附加赛，热火将寻求为去年首轮被骑士横扫的耻辱复仇。 —— 永米苏克

能影响首轮走势的球员：

阿德巴约。迈阿密去年的首轮系列赛堪称闹剧，被克利夫兰横扫，最后两场合计输掉92分。为了球队尊严，热火绝不能重蹈覆辙。对此负有最大责任的球员是阿德巴约，他在上个月的83分之战中展现了极强的自尊心。热火需要他完成比砍下83分更难的任务：让身边的每个人变得更好，以抗衡他们将面对的头号种子。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

再次从附加赛突围。热火队的标准一直是争夺冠军。但在过去的三个赛季里，他们几乎把附加赛变成了“迈阿密邀请赛”。去年他们在首轮面对克利夫兰时毫无还手之力；短期来看，锁定8号种子并与底特律打出一轮有竞争力的系列赛将是理想结果。 —— 古德威尔

关键数据： 迈阿密本赛季的节奏（Pace）领跑全联盟，而此前六个赛季他们均排名倒数前五。

投注小贴士： 热火在常规赛对阵黄蜂的四场比赛中赢了三场，其中三场打出大分。然而，夏洛特在主场更被看好，且全明星赛后的净效率排名全联盟第三，这支球队不容小觑。在这种情况下，仅仅依赖常规赛趋势可能会产生误导。 —— 穆迪

西部联盟

1. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (64-18)

首轮对阵： 菲尼克斯太阳
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 60.3%
夺冠赔率： +110

首轮看点：

尽管太阳队在附加赛中展现了韧性，但雷霆队仍将是首轮的大热门。俄克拉荷马城受益于上赛季首轮横扫孟菲斯灰熊，在两轮系列赛之间获得了八天的休息时间。对于一支在整个赛季中处理了如此多伤病的球队来说，减少消耗应该是雷霆队的动力源泉。 —— 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)

季后赛的一大疑问：

杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 能否表现得像谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 身边需要的二当家？

威廉姆斯在上赛季总决赛第五场砍下40分，创下了队史季后赛最重要的个人表现，但他本赛季经历了一段令人沮丧的时期，一直在从休赛期的手腕手术和反复的腿筋拉伤中恢复。他在常规赛最后几周努力寻找节奏。 —— 麦克马洪

能影响首轮走势的球员：

切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)。雷霆的替补席每场贡献的净胜分相当于联盟一半球队的首发阵容。他们表现优于太阳和勇士的首发，所以如果雷霆面对这两支球队，替补席的深度可能就足够了。

但如果雷霆面对快船，他们需要一两个首发球员站出来。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大可以拯救球队，但在首轮中，霍姆格伦应该承担起带队的责任。他在去年的首轮比赛中几乎做到了这一点。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

雷霆现在的标准已经非常高了。在长达18个月的时间里，他们一直是联盟中最好的球队。本赛季，他们有多名球员巩固了自己的角色和价值，尤其是阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)，在雷霆应对伤病期间，他的各项数据均创下生涯新高。凭借深度，雷霆展示了驾驭多种打法、统治关键时刻并依靠多名球员获胜的能力。这不再是“夺冠或解散核心”的问题，而是“不夺冠即失败”。 —— 布莱恩·温德霍斯特 (Brian Windhorst)

关键数据： 雷霆开局强劲，收官也同样出色。他们以24胜1负开局，以19胜3负收官（最后两场轮换了核心球员并告负）。

投注小贴士： 雷霆是蝉联冠军的热门，+120的赔率与全联盟其他球队相近。对于想投注雷霆夺冠的人来说，一个提高收益的方法是关注DraftKings上的“总决赛精确对阵结果”。例如，凯尔特人以+145的赔率领跑东部。投注雷霆在总决赛击败凯尔特人的赔率为+450，远高于单纯投注雷霆夺冠的+120。 —— 安德烈·斯内林斯 (Andre Snellings)

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2. 圣安东尼奥马刺 (62-20)

首轮对阵： 波特兰开拓者
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 28.2%
夺冠赔率： +500

首轮看点：

维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在4月6日遭遇左肋骨挫伤，目前尚不清楚伤势会如何影响他在季后赛面对更强身体对抗时的表现。虽然伤势看起来相对较轻，但文班可能不得不带着一定程度的疼痛作战。

这将如何影响他的投篮和移动能力？对手在常规赛中通过加强身体对抗对付这位22岁的法国人取得了一定成效，因此马刺应预见到在首轮对阵开拓者时会遇到同样的挑战。 —— 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)

季后赛的一大疑问：

缺乏经验的马刺能否控制节奏？圣安东尼奥在常规赛中凭借极快的比赛节奏压制对手，展现了球队的年轻、速度和运动能力。在季后赛中，比赛节奏会变慢，演变成更多的半场拉锯战。缺乏经验的马刺能否在这些高强度的比赛中，在48分钟内持续打好半场进攻？ —— 莱特

能影响首轮走势的球员：

朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)。去年，泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome) 在打出一个爆发性的常规赛后进入季后赛，结果在第二轮表现惨淡。对于马刺来说，尚帕尼无论文班在不在场都表现出色，提供了一种稳定的存在感……就像杰罗姆去年为骑士做的那样。我认为尚帕尼非常坚韧，所以我相信他能在首轮挺身而出，让比赛变得简单，但去年我也没预料到杰罗姆会失灵。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

马刺已经达到目标了。文班打出了一个爆发性的赛季，展示了22岁的他如何将攻防两端提升到MVP级别。21岁的斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 已经成长为联盟最佳防守后卫之一；迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 将入选最佳新秀阵容；凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 可能赢得最佳第六人；主帅米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 也证明了自己胜任这份工作。当然，你可以说他们必须赢得多少场季后赛或打进第几轮，但这次季后赛是一次毫无压力的尝试。他们已经达成了基准目标。无论如何，未来几年的期望都会随之而来。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 马刺成为NBA历史上第四支在前一季无缘季后赛后，次年赢得至少60胜的球队，加入了2007-08赛季凯尔特人、2004-05赛季太阳和1979-80赛季凯尔特人的行列。

投注小贴士： 马刺夺冠赔率为+500，但文班夺得总决赛MVP的赔率为+600。如果马刺夺冠，极大概率是依靠文班的超凡表现。因此，对于想支持马刺夺冠的投注者，我认为投注文班获得FMVP比投注球队夺冠更有价值。 —— 斯内林斯

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3. 丹佛掘金 (54-28)

首轮对阵： 明尼苏达森林狼
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 7.4%
夺冠赔率： +950

首轮看点：

这是2024年西部半决赛七场大战的重演，当时丹佛通常极具统治力的进攻陷入停滞，在输给森林狼的四场比赛中得分均未破百。贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 刚刚打出了职业生涯最佳常规赛，他可以为那轮堪称他职业生涯最差的季后赛系列赛完成复仇。穆雷在那七场比赛中场均仅得到18.4分，命中率为40.3%，其中几场失利中分别只有18投3中和18投4中。 —— 麦克马洪

季后赛的一大疑问：

阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 能否保持健康？戈登在过去两个赛季一直处理小腿和腿筋拉伤，他不仅是球队的粘合剂，更是丹佛防守的“强力胶”。如果掘金遇到马刺，他们尤其需要戈登去防守文班亚马。 —— 麦克马洪

能影响首轮走势的球员：

戈登。掘金本赛季的主客场表现差异不大。在丹佛，你必须利用高原优势。那么谁没有充分利用这一点？是戈登。

他是掘金去年季后赛的明星球员，但本赛季他一直受到伤病和稀薄空气的困扰，主场表现比客场每场少贡献2.1分净胜分。掘金拥有主场优势的首轮系列赛可能会非常激烈，他们需要他表现得更好。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

掘金可以理直气壮地说，他们本有机会赢得过去三年的每一个冠军，而只拿到其中一个只是最低限度。话虽如此，考虑到雷霆和马刺的深度和上限，掘金今年在冲击深远目标的征程中将处于下风。因此，如果他们能打进分区决赛并保有一线生机，那么在去年错失良机后，他们至少已经成功赢下了一轮系列赛。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 掘金是NBA历史上第一支在同一赛季拥有多名至少得到1500分和500次助攻球员的球队（尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和穆雷）。

投注小贴士： 尽管掘金夺冠赔率为+800（DraftKings排名第四），但约基奇获得FMVP的赔率也是+800。约基奇是伟大的球员，甚至是联盟第一人，但如果掘金不夺冠，他极难获得FMVP。历史上唯一一位来自负方的FMVP是1969年的杰里·韦斯特。有了近60年的先例支持，我认为投注掘金夺冠比投注约基奇获得FMVP更有价值。 —— 斯内林斯

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4. 洛杉矶湖人 (53-29)

首轮对阵： 休斯顿火箭
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.8%
夺冠赔率： +25000

首轮看点：

在最初因卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的伤病而陷入动荡后，湖人队在常规赛末段以三连胜稳住了阵脚。勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 回到了第一进攻选择的位置；卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard) 被要求承担持球发起的重任；马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 也从长期的脚踝伤势中复出。在锁定主场优势并获得五天休息时间后，湖人将尝试制定方案，击败以九胜一负收官的火箭队。“我们会做好准备，我们会战斗，我们会努力赢下这轮系列赛，”湖人主帅JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick) 表示。 —— 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)

季后赛的一大疑问：

湖人能否在季后赛中坚持足够长的时间，等到东契奇和里夫斯伤愈复出？湖人赛季末的势头在4月2日的俄克拉荷马城戛然而止，当时东契奇遭遇左腿筋2级拉伤，里夫斯左腹斜肌2级损伤，雷霆狂胜湖人43分。在这些球员养伤期间，詹姆斯能否从第三选择切换回领袖模式，带领洛杉矶取胜？ —— 麦克梅纳明

能影响首轮走势的球员：

詹姆斯。一个月前，人们还在担心湖人三巨头之间的化学反应。在经历了一个成功的化学反应提升月后，其中两人受伤了。现在没有化学反应问题了，不是吗？现在，詹姆斯只需要看看他那些延长职业生涯的设备和秘诀是否依然奏效。詹姆斯本赛季表现最好的四场比赛中，他分别贡献了+11、+9.2、+8.2和+8的净胜分。这相当于每场为胜利贡献约9分。看看他、东契奇和里夫斯，他们场均贡献+8.5，所以最顶尖的詹姆斯如果能维持四天，就能带湖人进第二轮。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

上周在俄克拉荷马城遭遇了灾难。两名核心球员东契奇和里夫斯受伤并将缺席数周。打进第二轮就值得庆祝了——这可能会给东契奇和里夫斯回归的机会。除此之外，我看不出湖人如何能不被常规赛末段的厄运所击垮。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 湖人本赛季在带着领先进入第四节时，取得了40胜1负的战绩，为全联盟最佳。

投注小贴士： 湖人正在适应没有东契奇和里夫斯的生活，而詹姆斯也正带着手部伤势作战。在两人缺阵的情况下，詹姆斯回到了这支阵容并非为此设计的组织核心角色。他们的夺冠赔率已跌至150比1，且在对阵火箭的系列赛中被视为大冷门（+550）。 —— 穆迪

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5. 休斯顿火箭 (52-30)

首轮对阵： 洛杉矶湖人
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 2.9%
夺冠赔率： +6000

首轮看点：

休斯顿似乎克服了常规赛期间困扰他们的化学反应问题，但当季后赛压力升级时会发生什么？记住，火箭目前缺少了上赛季的四名高水平贡献者（弗雷德·范弗利特、斯蒂芬·亚当斯、狄龙·布鲁克斯和杰伦·格林），且他们在2025-26赛季的大部分时间里都在磨合加入凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 后的阵痛。 —— 莱特

季后赛的一大疑问：

火箭有关键时刻的“终结者”吗？常规赛期间多次领先被翻盘令人担忧，这源于在比赛末段无法持续创造进攻机会。部分原因是控卫范弗利特因赛季报销的伤病而缺阵。杜兰特、阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)、里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 和阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 都有所进步，但他们能在季后赛关键时刻挺身而出吗？ —— 莱特

能影响首轮走势的球员：

小贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.)。本赛季他在攻防两端每48分钟的表现都非常“平庸”（净胜分为0.0）。但在对阵季后赛级别球队和关键时刻，他的表现很糟糕——他实际上领跑全联盟的“门槛负场”，即如果他不打，火箭“本可以赢下”的比赛。我们并不真正确定谁是火箭的领袖，但如果他们想闯过首轮，史密斯必须站出来。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

这支球队仍在寻找自我。在3月中旬遭遇10战6负后，火箭以9胜1负收官，尽管他们仍缺乏一位经过验证的控卫。赢下一轮系列赛对他们来说将是巨大的进步，面对伤兵满营的湖人，他们确实有机会。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 火箭本赛季不仅在篮板净胜数上领跑全联盟，且+8.6的场均净胜篮板是自1970-71赛季以来联盟历史第三高。

投注小贴士： 火箭在对阵弱旅时表现挣扎，输给胜率不足五成球队的场次比太阳、马刺、湖人和雷霆都多。他们也过度依赖杜兰特（使用率28.5%），如果对手针对性防守，他们会显得很脆弱。休斯顿在分差3分以内的比赛中仅为5胜9负，这引发了人们对其终结比赛能力的担忧。 —— 穆迪

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6. 明尼苏达森林狼 (49-33)

首轮对阵： 丹佛掘金
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.3%
夺冠赔率： +9000

首轮看点：

在连续两次打进西部决赛后，森林狼进入本次季后赛的势头并不算强劲。他们以5胜5负收官，防守效率跌至第八（上赛季第六）；进攻效率排名第13（上赛季第八）。尽管如此，他们拥有进入巅峰期的安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)（场均生涯新高的28.8分），以及多次季后赛经验的朱利乌斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle)、纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)、鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)、唐特·迪温琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 和杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)，还有新兴力量阿约·多松穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 和博恩斯·海兰德 (Bones Hyland)。 —— 麦克梅纳明

季后赛的一大疑问：

爱德华兹和麦克丹尼尔斯的健康状况如何？爱德华兹在3月中旬到4月初因右膝伤势缺席了11场比赛中的10场，而麦克丹尼尔斯最近因髌骨腱病和左膝骨挫伤连续缺席了6场比赛。森林狼去年春天作为6号种子打进分区决赛，证明了他们不容小觑——但那是建立在全员健康的基础上的。 —— 麦克梅纳明

能影响首轮走势的球员：

爱德华兹。他是森林狼阵中唯一对阵季后赛级别球队时净胜分为正的球员（每48分钟+3.2）。零代表平均水平，而大部分队友都在零以下。受右膝伤势困扰的爱德华兹必须提升队友的表现。顺便提一下，去年森林狼虽然是6号种子，但几乎整个轮换阵容在对阵季后赛球队时都是正贡献。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

两名核心球员爱德华兹和麦克丹尼尔斯正带着伤病进入季后赛。虽然明尼苏达依然是一个危险的低位种子，但连续第三次打进分区决赛看起来有些遥远。但这就是他们的标杆。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 迪温琴佐、爱德华兹、麦克丹尼尔斯、兰德尔和戈贝尔的首发阵容本赛季共同出战了710分钟——比联盟中任何其他阵容都多出至少150分钟。

投注小贴士： 根据DraftKings的数据，森林狼夺得西部冠军的赔率为+2200，被视为冷门。但他们是NBA唯一一支在过去两年都打进分区决赛的球队。森林狼对阵西部前两号种子的总战绩也占优（对阵雷霆和马刺合计4胜3负），这使他们成为极具说服力的冷门选择。 —— 斯内林斯

西部附加赛

7. 菲尼克斯太阳 (45-37)

附加赛首场对阵： 波特兰开拓者
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.1%
夺冠赔率： +600000

附加赛看点：

德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 在过去六年里第五次进入季后赛——且是师从第三位不同的教练。菲尼克斯通过与休斯顿的交易重组了球队，送走杜兰特，换来杰伦·格林和狄龙·布鲁克斯。太阳还解雇了迈克·布登霍尔泽，聘请了乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)，他在执教首个赛季就将球队打造成防守前十。布克再次入选全明星；布鲁克斯打出了生涯年；科林·吉莱斯皮 (Collin Gillespie) 是最快进步球员的竞争者；格雷森·阿伦 (Grayson Allen) 则是联盟最佳替补得分手之一，这些都让太阳作为7号种子不容小觑。 —— 麦克梅纳明

季后赛的一大疑问：

太阳常规赛对阵圣安东尼奥的战绩能否预示系列赛的竞争程度？菲尼克斯对阵马刺战绩为2胜2负，其中一场失利（3月19日100-101）是在布鲁克斯缺阵的情况下发生的。如果太阳能尽早打出悬念，圣安东尼奥的季后赛经验不足是否会成为菲尼克斯的优势？ —— 麦克梅纳明

能影响首轮走势的球员：

布鲁克斯。2月1日时，太阳战绩为30胜19负位列西部第六。布鲁克斯当时打出了生涯最佳表现，在战胜克利夫兰和底特律的比赛中分别贡献了+8.1和+10.2的净胜分。自那以后，太阳战绩仅为14胜17负，布鲁克斯缺席了很多比赛——他在2月21日左手骨折并缺阵一个多月——且投丢了很多球。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

无论季后赛结果如何，这已经是成功的了。太阳季前的预测仅为西部第13，胜场在30场左右。在奥特的带领下，他们几乎在各方面都超出了预期。至于他们的薪资空间和选秀权情况，那是另一个话题。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 太阳本赛季场均投进14.8个三分球排名第五，且三分失球数（场均12.2个）为全联盟第二少；+2.6的三分净胜数排名联盟第三。

投注小贴士： 太阳虽然身处附加赛，但趋势对他们有利。在附加赛时代，7号种子晋级季后赛的概率为100%，且在首场主场比赛中战绩为8胜2负。从历史角度看，太阳处于有利地位，但附加赛的赛制波动性很大，任何意外都可能发生。 —— 穆迪

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8. 波特兰开拓者 (42-40)

附加赛首场对阵： 菲尼克斯太阳
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.0%
夺冠赔率： +200000

附加赛看点：

年轻人。没有人指望开拓者能走得很远，但哪怕只是一点季后赛的体验，对这支不断进化的年轻阵容来说都有促进成长的作用。多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 在过去几个月表现出色，当赌注提高时他会如何应对？斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 能否为他这个坎坷的第三赛季画上圆满句号？丹尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 已经成长为开拓者真正的进攻核心，但季后赛的防守重点往往会揭示球星比赛中的弱点。开拓者本赛季实现了跨越，接下来的两周将让他们了解自己距离顶级水平还有多远。 —— 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)

季后赛的一大疑问：

他们的防守能否转化为竞争力？全明星赛后，开拓者的防守效率排名第四。克林根是一名不断进步的禁区守护者，图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 和朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 在外线如影随形。他们能锁死对手。考虑到他们必须通过附加赛才能挑战马刺或雷霆——这些联盟顶尖防守球队将让他们得分变得异常困难——他们需要依靠防守才能生存。 —— 斯莱特

能影响首轮走势的球员：

卡马拉。当他能将进攻与制造失误的能力结合起来时，他就是波特兰最好的球员。问题在于，他主要是在对阵弱旅时做到这一点。开拓者轮换中的其他球员在对阵季后赛级别对手时表现尚可。如果他们想制造威胁，卡马拉在进攻端至少需要有及格的表现。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

已经达成了。开拓者确保了至少有一场附加赛，且至少有一个主场，这在经历了四年的低迷后是显著的进步。随着阿夫迪亚、谢顿·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) 和克林根的成长，波特兰的核心阵容初具规模。开拓者还有很长的路要走，但第一步已经迈出了。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 开拓者场均二次进攻得分（18.4分）领跑全联盟。这是自1996-97赛季以来的历史第二高水平（2021-22赛季灰熊场均18.7分）。

投注小贴士： 开拓者本赛季是一支强防守球队。事实上，在过去15场比赛中，波特兰的防守效率位居NBA榜首。虽然波特兰和菲尼克斯在本赛季的三次交手中两场打出大分，但投注者应注意，季后赛的防守通常会收紧。 —— 穆迪

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9. 洛杉矶快船 (42-40)

附加赛首场对阵： 金州勇士
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.0%
夺冠赔率： +70000

附加赛看点：

在以6胜21负开局后，快船最终打出了36胜19负，完成了主帅泰伦·卢 (Tyronn Lue) 设定的胜率过半并晋级季后赛的目标。他们将在直觉圆顶球馆 (Intuit Dome) 迎战金州勇士，胜者有机会在首轮挑战卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆。尽管那轮系列赛注定艰难，但看着前队友谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大站在对面，对快船来说可能更扎心。 —— 麦克梅纳明

季后赛的一大疑问：

在经历了快船生涯最出色的赛季后，科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 在季后赛会拿出怎样的表现？自他离开多伦多以来，在洛杉矶参加的50场季后赛中，这位两届总决赛MVP仅出战了35场。随着保罗·乔治、詹姆斯·哈登和伊维察·祖巴茨悉数离去，伦纳德成了快船“路灯胜过聚光灯”时代的最后守望者。 —— 麦克梅纳明

能影响首轮走势的球员：

伦纳德。快船自糟糕开局以来一直面临逆水行舟的困境。有很多球员帮助他们走出了泥潭，但伦纳德的表现一直是最佳阵容级别的。

在季后赛的艰苦战斗中，拥有正处于生涯最佳状态之一的伦纳德，快船有望带领一群经验丰富的老兵给高位种子制造麻烦。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

他们极不可能达到任何成功的定义。快船连续两个赛季拥有相对健康的伦纳德，却可能颗粒无收。他们在交易截止日抛售天赋的决定向全联盟发出了信号：他们不再相信现有阵容，需要开始重建。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 自12月20日克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 被送回家那天起，快船的胜率（.655）位居西部第三。

投注小贴士： 快船在常规赛对阵勇士取得了3胜1负的优势（-3.5，220.5），包括最近一场在没有伦纳德的情况下取胜，显示出对位上的成功。但两队在附加赛中都表现挣扎，快船0胜2负，勇士1胜3负。虽然伦纳德和库里是焦点，但快船在往绩和深度上的优势可能让他们在这个高波动性的对决中占据先机。 —— 穆迪

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10. 金州勇士 (37-45)

附加赛首场对阵： 洛杉矶快船
BPI预测进入总决赛概率： 0.0%
夺冠赔率： +80000

附加赛看点：

克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 价值3070万美元的到期合同是勇士管理层今夏面临的重大抉择之一。他带来了这支球队匮乏的诱人技能包——一个能拉开空间并保护篮筐的七尺长人——但其存疑的健康状况和出勤率使其成为风险。他们几乎没有他与斯蒂芬·库里和德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 同场的实战数据。理论上很契合，但如果勇士能看到他在几场高强度比赛中保持健康并出战30分钟以上，且与核心阵容产生化学反应，他们今夏续约波尔津吉斯时会踏实得多。 —— 斯莱特

季后赛的一大疑问：

对勇士来说，输掉附加赛是否反而更好？如果勇士在两场客场附加赛中幸存，他们的奖励将是在休息和准备了一周的卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆面前开始首轮系列赛。这样做意味着他们放弃了在选秀大年获得前四顺位签的9.4%机会，且假设没有在抽签中跃升，他们也将牺牲11号签而掉到15号。管理层会为了库里和老兵们全力冲击季后赛，但不难理解，一场速败、一个夏天的休息以及乐透抽签的运气对球队长远发展可能更健康。 —— 斯莱特

能影响首轮走势的球员：

库里。让我们直说吧——勇士想要闯过首轮，唯一的非科幻方式就是库里打出最佳表现。他在11月战胜圣安东尼奥的比赛中连续打出神级表现，分别贡献了+14.2和+11.7的净胜分。这就是库里依然能做到的，他们需要他。 —— 奥利弗

如果达成以下目标，他们将认为这是一个成功的赛季：

如果库里能打上几场季后赛。这就是本赛季的标杆。他剩下的季后赛机会不多了，所以任何额外的黄金时段比赛都是对他名人堂生涯的额外奖赏。随着吉米·巴特勒缺阵且阵容漏洞百出，勇士在这个春天无法走得太远。 —— 温德霍斯特

关键数据： 勇士本赛季在有库里的比赛中战绩为24胜19负（胜率.558），没有他时仅为13胜26负（.333）。

投注小贴士： 勇士在过去六个赛季中有三次打进季后赛，其中2021-22赛季夺冠是高光时刻。但除了那次夺冠，他们的战绩起伏不定，经常早早出局或无缘季后赛。他们的晋级之路异常艰难，尽管库里依然危险，但深度和稳定性的缺失可能会在季后赛系列赛中暴露无遗。此外，金州勇士在过去10场对阵快船的比赛中，让分盘战绩仅为2胜8负。 —— 穆迪

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

By NBA insiders, via ESPN

[ESPN]

点击查看原文：NBA playoffs 2026: Previewing all 20 teams still vying for the title

NBA playoffs 2026: Previewing all 20 teams still vying for the title

The 2026 NBA postseason is officially here.

The final week of regular-season play ended on April 12 as all 30 teams faced off to cap off the 82-game campaign. Some top seeds sweetened an already dominant run, while bottom-dwelling teams completed their last efforts to tank for the May 10 draft lottery.

After four teams from each conference faced off in the play-in tournament, 16 total teams remain to compete for a chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.

Our NBA insiders broke down all 20 postseason teams, their first-round and play-in matchups, biggest questions and key players to watch throughout the run to the 2026 Finals

Note: Odds for 2026 NBA playoffs provided by DraftKings.

Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | CHA | CLE | DEN
DET | GS | HOU | LAC | LAL
MIA | MIN | NYK | OKC | ORL
PHI | PHX | POR | SA | TOR
Playoff bracket, schedule, news

Which NBA superstars will battle in the 2026 Finals? The journey begins on Tuesday. ESPN

Eastern Conference

1. Detroit Pistons (60-22)

Round 1 matchup: Orlando Magic
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 44.2%
NBA title odds: +2200

What to watch for in Round 1:

One of the best seasons in franchise history was powered by the kind of defense, intensity and physicality that have been calling cards of nearly every great Detroit team. But will the East’s top seed generate enough offense to reach its first Finals since 2005? Cade Cunningham has realized his potential as the 2021 No. 1 draft pick, but the options behind him are largely unproven. The Magic, after dominating the Hornets to claim the last spot in the playoffs, will test the Pistons to keep up on the scoreboard. – Jamal Collier

One big question for the postseason:

Is Cunningham fully healthy? The Pistons didn’t miss a beat near the end of the regular season, wrapping up the best record in the conference without their star player. Cunningham shook off some rust with two games last week, but the chances of a deep playoff run hinge on how he bounces back from a collapsed lung. Despite falling short of the 65-game threshold, Cunningham was one of the best players in the league this season and looked like a lock for All-NBA. Detroit needs Cunningham at that level. – Collier

Player who can swing the first round:

Cunningham. I looked at how much teams would fall if they were without their best player, and the Pistons would drop only to fourth. But a top player returning after injury has a chance of clunkiness. The Pistons got Cunningham back from a collapsed lung last Wednesday in a game against a tanking team, and he played well. But tankers won’t be the test. When the Pistons face a team in lockdown defense mode, that’s when Cunningham must avoid forcing things and keep defending on the other end. – Dean Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They reach the second round. It would seem as if a conference finals appearance would be the minimum goal, but it’s important to note that this team is just two seasons removed from a disastrous 14-win campaign. In 2024, the Thunder tied for the best record in the West with 57 wins only to get knocked out by the Mavericks in the conference semis. Detroit chose not to make any major swings at the trade deadline, in part due to not wanting to skip steps or place the burden of title expectations on a rising young team. – Vincent Goodwill

Stat to know: Detroit is the third team in the past 15 seasons to lead the league in steals and blocks (2021-22 Grizzlies, 2016-17 Warriors).

Betting nugget: The Pistons posted a plus-9.5 net rating over an 11-game stretch without Cunningham during the final month of the regular season, barely down from plus-10.9 with him. Their offense dipped from 119.7 to 108.5 per 100 possessions without him, but it still averaged 115.8 during that span, while the defense improved. The Pistons’ ability to sustain elite efficiency without their star reinforces their legitimacy as a contender. At the fourth-best odds to win the East (+500) and seventh best to win the championship (+2200), the market might still be undervaluing them. – Eric Moody

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2. Boston Celtics (56-26)

Round 1 matchup: Philadelphia 76ers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 26.4%
NBA title odds: +550

What to watch for in Round 1:

How will Boston’s center rotation fare? Neemias Queta and Luka Garza have never been relied upon to be significant postseason contributors, and veteran Nikola Vucevic has never played past the first round. If Boston is to make the deep playoff run it expects, this frontcourt group will be tested. – Tim Bontemps

One big question for the postseason:

What will Jayson Tatum look like? It already has been a remarkable comeback for him to be playing less than a year after tearing an Achilles tendon – and quickly winning a conference Player of the Week award, to boot. But for Boston to be a true title threat, Tatum will need to return to something closer to his pre-injury form. -- Bontemps

Player who can swing the first round:

Payton Pritchard. The Celtics are a machine that adapts to what the opponent does, but if there’s a player whose performance can be volatile, it’s Pritchard. He has been among the 30 most inconsistent players this season, posting 23 good games and 17 bad ones (plus-37 average efforts). If the Celtics face the ferocious starting unit in Charlotte, they can’t afford a Pritchard stinker: Boston’s biggest loss of the season was to the visiting Hornets on March 4, when Pritchard had his worst game. – Dean Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They reach the conference finals. In some ways, Tatum’s return has Boston playing with house money. He came back sooner than expected and looks like a reasonable version of himself while swapping lead positions with MVP contender Jaylen Brown. Getting knocked out in the second round last season as defending champions then being able to come back and advance to top-two status in what was thought to be a “gap year” would constitute a massive win for the franchise. But going further is always on the board in the East. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The Celtics allowed 40.1 points per game in the paint – the fewest in a season since the 2019-20 Bucks (38.7).

Betting nugget: Defense wins championships: Twenty-two of the past 25 champions ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating during the regular season. The Celtics rank second in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. That’s notable, as 23 of the past 25 champions finished in the top five in either offensive or defensive efficiency. With Tatum and Brown leading the way, Boston has the profile of a true contender on both ends of the floor and presents value at +550 to win the championship. – Moody

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3. New York Knicks (53-29)

Round 1 matchup: Atlanta Hawks
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 21.5%
NBA title odds: +1800

What to watch for in Round 1:

Whether the Knicks can take care of business early and get enough rest for a potential rematch with the Celtics. That would mean Jalen Brunson continuing the trend of trusting his teammates such as Josh Hart and, more importantly, Karl-Anthony Towns. Everything the Knicks have done since last season ended has been about leading to this moment. Firing Tom Thibodeau. Hiring Mike Brown. Not going all-in with a trade offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Treating the first round with the appropriate seriousness after having lulls in concentration this season would show that those decisions were worth it – for now. – Goodwill

One big question for the postseason:

Can Towns be the true second option New York needs? He has had a more productive second half of the season but has needed to find his offense off the glass rather than getting everything run through him. Towns and Brunson have found chemistry lately, but the pressure is greater on Towns than on any star-level player this postseason. – Goodwill

Player who can swing the first round:

Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have been very good against bad teams and middling against good teams. Who declines the most? It’s Robinson, and it’s on both sides of the ball. The good defenses defend him well, and they are also willing to foul him and put him on the line, where his sub-50% mark means “hack-a-Mitchell” is in play from tipoff. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They reach the NBA Finals. If it weren’t obvious, Knicks owner James Dolan laid out the gauntlet on New York radio in January. Making the conference finals was just good enough to get Thibodeau fired. Beating Boston, Detroit, Cleveland or anyone else is the bare minimum. The Knicks were built to win this season, and there could be consequences on some level if they come up short again. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The Knicks had a plus-10.0 point differential at home this season, third in the NBA behind the Thunder (11.7) and Pistons (10.5).

Betting nugget: The odds imply the Knicks have the edge in this series against Atlanta, which makes sense given their size and rebounding advantage with Towns and Robinson. While New York’s 3-point volume and efficiency have dipped recently, it still ranked in the top five in percentage on the season. With two of the three earlier meetings decided by three points, the Knicks’ physicality could be the difference in what projects as a competitive series, making the over 5.5 games (-150) worth consideration. – Moody

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4. Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)

Round 1 matchup: Toronto Raptors
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 4.0%
NBA title odds: +1600

What to watch for in Round 1:

This Cavs team will arguably provide James Harden his best chance to redeem his previous playoff disappointments, and the opening round will be the first window into how he handles it. Harden’s career of playoff shortcomings would not be assuaged no matter whom Cleveland played in the opening series, but it’ll be the first opportunity to see this team under real pressure. How will Harden operate on a team for which he doesn’t have to handle much of the scoring burden, and how will he and Donovan Mitchell work on the floor together, especially at the end of games? – Collier

One big question for the postseason:

Did the Cavs’ big four have enough time to jell? Thanks to a combination of ill-timed injuries, the quartet of Mitchell, Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen entered the final week of the regular season having played six games and 76 total minutes together. The good news for the Cavs is that they are outscoring opponents by 35 points during those minutes, but it’s a small sample for Cleveland’s best players before they have to win on a playoff stage. – Collier

Player who can swing the first round:

Harden. The key for Cleveland is the counter to Mitchell, who dictates winning and losing so much for the Cavs that when he’s down, the whole team is down. When the Cavs lost in the second round last year, he had a couple of bad games and his teammates couldn’t pick him up. Their key player in this postseason could be Harden, Allen or Mobley, but they need one of them to provide that counter. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They reach the conference finals. The Cavaliers haven’t made it that far without LeBron James since 1992, and current franchise star Mitchell has never advanced past the second round. Acquiring Harden before the trade deadline only heightened expectations. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The Cavaliers had 14 wins this season in which they trailed entering the fourth quarter – the most by any team.

Betting nugget: The Cavaliers are 20-6 since acquiring Harden, who has averaged 20.5 points and 7.7 assists with the Cavs while helping elevate them to fifth in offensive rating post-All-Star break. But Cleveland ranks just 12th in defensive rating for the season, and the Cavaliers also are 20-32 against the spread versus East opponents. For a team with championship aspirations, that imbalance is hard to ignore. – Moody

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5. Toronto Raptors (46-36)

Round 1 matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 2.0%
NBA title odds: +25000

What to watch for in Round 1:

Toronto was drawing dead against the Knicks, having lost all five games against New York this season, including on Friday night. But thanks to Orlando losing to Boston, the Raptors instead will face Cleveland, which they swept in their three-game season series. It’s important to note that all of those games were played before Nov. 25, but securing a series against the Cavs was a significant win for Toronto.

One big question for the postseason:

Is Scottie Barnes ready for the spotlight? After his cameo role as a rookie, this is the first chance for Barnes to be the leading man on a playoff team. How will he take on that challenge, and can he lead Toronto to a first-round upset? – Bontemps

Player who can swing the first round:

Ja’Kobe Walter. Between Halloween and Thanksgiving, the Raptors went 13-1. What happened in that stretch? They played bad teams – very bad teams. These Raptors do well against bad teams. Against good teams, Brandon Ingram has been bad, Jamal Shead has been worse, Walter has been the worst. One of those guys, probably two, needs to actually show up if the Raptors are going to win a series. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They put a scare into one of the giants. It doesn’t seem as if the Raptors are knocking on the door of truly bothering the upper echelon of the East, at least not in the way the NBA world views Atlanta or even the red-hot Hornets. Since Toronto’s 12-3 December, it has been a .500 outfit the rest of the way. Making someone sweat in the opening round with a long, rangy defense could put a bow on a season nobody should feel bad about in the North. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The Raptors led the NBA in fast-break points per game (18.9) and allowed the second fewest (12.5). Their plus-6.3 point differential on fast breaks is the best by a team since 2018-19.

Betting nugget: The Raptors’ continuity and ball movement (29.5 assists per game, third in NBA) combined with a top-five defense (112.2 rating) make them a tougher matchup than expected: They are +425 to win the series. While Toronto’s offense is average, its ability to limit runs and play cohesively gives it staying power. Toronto has the profile to extend this series over 5.5 games (-110). The Raptors went 3-0 against the Cavaliers during the regular season. – Moody

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6. Atlanta Hawks (46-36)

Round 1 matchup: New York Knicks
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.1%
NBA title odds: +13000

What to watch for in Round 1:

After Jalen Johnson took the controls while Trae Young was injured, the Hawks pivoted and traded Young and Kristaps Porzingis. Following a 20-25 start, Atlanta went 25-10 over the next 35 games, playing and moving the ball the way Quin Snyder wants. Johnson is a star in the making. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been one of the best pickups of the offseason, and he and CJ McCollum provide deep playoff experience, having each reached the Western Conference finals. Jonathan Kuminga hopes to pick up where he left off upon averaging 20.8 points for the Warriors in the second round against Minnesota last postseason after Stephen Curry was injured. – Ohm Youngmisuk

One big question for the postseason:

Can Johnson take his game to the next level? The do-it-all forward developed into an All-Star this campaign. Now, he returns to the postseason for the first time since 2023, but this time as the Hawks’ go-to guy. This will be a priceless experience for the 24-year-old’s growth as he tests his triple-double skills against a Knicks defense fixated on him. Johnson got a taste of facing playoff-tested teams when he shot a combined 12-for-35 and fouled out once in two losses last week to the Knicks and Cavaliers. Things will get only harder from here, but this is the next step for Johnson’s ascendence. – Youngmisuk

Player who can swing the first round:

Alexander-Walker. Johnson is the Hawks’ top guy, but Alexander-Walker is their second-best player. Alexander-Walker has the team’s second-most threshold wins, when his performance was enough to carry the team to a win. It’s what he doesn’t do – perform in the clutch – that is particularly relevant for Atlanta. Johnson has been good, but defenses know that and likely will force someone else, such as Alexander-Walker, to beat them. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They pull off a first-round upset. The Hawks were a sleeper contender pick before the season began, when they still rostered Young. But it wasn’t until after trading Young and Porzingis that they were able to deploy Snyder’s full game plan: Atlanta went 19-5 after the break behind elite shotmaking and havoc on defense. It won’t be easy or even likely, but given the Hawks failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations, a first-round triumph would be a significant next step for the young roster. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The Hawks led the NBA with 30.1 assists per game, the most in a season in franchise history. They generated a league-best 78.7 points per game from their assists, according to GeniusIQ.

Betting nugget: Atlanta enters the series red-hot, going 20-6 post-All-Star break while ranking in the top 10 in 3-point volume and efficiency. The Hawks are also 2-1 against the spread (ATS) versus New York this season. With a more fluid offense generating 30.1 APG, Atlanta has the profile to outperform expectations and push this deeper than the market (Knicks -290 to win the series) suggests. – Moody

Eastern Conference play-in

7. Philadelphia 76ers (45-37)

First play-in matchup: Orlando Magic
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.3%
NBA title odds: +17000

What to watch in the play-in:

The 76ers entered the 2024-25 campaign with championship expectations, only to spectacularly crash and burn. This season, they had almost no expectations, and yet managed to make it into the playoffs and – at least in theory – have the players to make a deep playoff run in the wide-open East. – Bontemps

One big question for the postseason:

Can Philadelphia stay healthy? For a team that’s constantly dealing with one health issue after another, especially with Joel Embiid, any chance of being a factor in the playoffs will come down to whether the 76ers can get their team on the floor. – Bontemps

Player who can swing the first round:

Tyrese Maxey. Most of the 76ers’ team performance is additive. Add Maxey and they get plus-2.3 net points per game toward winning. Add Paul George and they get plus-1.7. Embiid adds plus-2.1. A team wants to spend all season building up the chemistry across those guys, so it’s more than additive. Most of this roster spent all season eating popcorn and watching Maxey cook. He can’t carry these guys too far on his own. He’s special and fun to watch, but if he gets stopped, the Sixers get stopped. Just adding George and Embiid to Maxey makes them good, but it’s essentially Maxey’s job to lead the team now, which means ensuring the chemistry makes it more than additive. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

At this point, getting through the play-in would constitute something salvageable for the 76ers. With Embiid’s emergency appendectomy putting his postseason status in danger, it’s impossible to place real expectations on this team. It’s been a season full of fits, starts and glimpses of potential, but it’s unfair to expect Maxey to carry this team into the first round by himself. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The 76ers were 11-10 when Embiid, George and Maxey all played this season. Together, they had a plus-1.6 point differential.

Betting nugget: The 76ers are 19-22 without Embiid this season and 2-1 ATS against the Magic, with two of those games going over the total. But there’s a case to fade those trends. Philadelphia lacks offensive firepower without Embiid, and Orlando’s size in the frontcourt could create matchup problems. And Maxey is playing through a finger injury. – Eric Moody

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8. Orlando Magic (45-37)

First play-in matchup: Philadelphia 76ers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.5%
NBA title odds: +35000

What to watch in the play-in:

It’s been a disappointingly inconsistent campaign for the Magic, who entered the preseason with huge hopes of contending in the East following the trade for Desmond Bane. But Orlando once again battled injuries, with Franz Wagner missing over half the season. The Magic were supposed to be a defensive juggernaut, but they look disinterested at times. Getting Wagner and Anthony Black back has been huge, and Orlando will look to salvage a frustrating season by doing what it was built to do: win in the postseason. In order to do that, the Magic will have to win in Philly first. – Youngmisuk

One big question for the postseason:

Can Paolo Banchero, Wagner and Bane be the formidable trio the Magic envisioned? They invested three unprotected first-round picks and a first-round pick swap in Bane to provide the perimeter shooting, leadership and postseason experience the Magic desperately need. Orlando did not picture fighting to get out of the play-in. Can the Magic show that Banchero and Wagner can thrive and have room to operate in a playoff environment with Bane on the perimeter to complement an elite defense? Or will Orlando fizzle out, forcing the Magic’s front office to consider this offseason how to get this East contender back on track? – Youngmisuk

Player who can swing the first round:

Wagner. He took about five games to get used to carrying the Magic when Banchero went down early last season. When Wagner has come back from injury this season, it also has taken him about five games to get right. Wagner really needs to be right if Orlando is going to go anywhere – besides on a fishing boat with Kenny Smith. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They reach the second round. This is not a team playing with house money. They rightfully identified long-range shotmaking as a problem last season and acquired Bane for the not-so-low ask of four first-round picks. Getting out the play-in, when the expectations were for Orlando to be far clear of it, might not be enough. There’s speculation about the future of important people in Orlando, and perhaps only a first-round upset can change the fortunes. – Goodwill

Stat to know: The Magic had 18 wins in games they trailed by 10 points or more, tied with the Cavaliers for the most in the NBA this season.

Betting nugget: Orlando has been elite in clutch games this season, but that hasn’t fully translated to betting value. The Magic are just 1-2 ATS against Philadelphia and 10-10 as a road underdog, which might concern bettors. However, Orlando’s size with Wagner, Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. could pose problems for a 76ers team without Embiid. – Moody

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9. Charlotte Hornets (44-38)

First play-in matchup: Miami Heat
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.0%
NBA title odds: +17000

What to watch in the play-in:

The Hornets enter the play-in as one of the hottest and most dangerous teams. Charlotte was 11-23 on Jan. 2 then won 32 of the next 45 games. The Hornets have to get out of the play-in in order to snap their nine-year playoff drought, the longest current streak in the NBA. But they’ll be looking to make some noise with a group that has grown confident with convincing wins over the Thunder, Celtics, Lakers, Nuggets and Knicks. Charlotte plays fast and fearless and is determined to change the narrative of this being the same old Hornets team of the past decade. – Youngmisuk

One big question for the postseason:

Can LaMelo Ball and rookie sensation Kon Knueppel continue to light it up? Postseason basketball is a whole different monster, and defenses will be focused on getting physical and taking away all of the Hornets’ screen actions that have worked tremendously so far. Ball is having the best season of his career, playing fewer minutes and getting up fewer shots. He wants to prove he can win in the playoffs and will have to play under control, minimize mistakes and turnovers, and hold his own defensively. Knueppel will have to figure out how to beat a playoff defense determined to limit the Hornets’ 3s. Most importantly, Charlotte’s version of the Splash Brothers will have to help the Hornets be much better in clutch time, something they have struggled with this season. – Youngmisuk

Player who can swing the first round:

Brandon Miller. He can have some terrible games and some great games; by metrics, he is the most inconsistent Hornet. Charlotte, facing a high seed in the first round, needs a wild card such as Miller who can scare the favorites into changing their game plan. But the Hornets also likely will want to get ahead and stay ahead. They have the worst clutch record of any potential playoff team. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

It already should be. The Hornets have been a second-half surprise, vaulting themselves from 12 games under .500 to one of the most potent offenses in the NBA in the new year after scoring 120.8 points per 100 possessions since January. But nobody expected them to be in this playoff puzzle, so whatever Ball, Knueppel & Co. accomplish in the postseason is a bonus and a great building block for next season. – Goodwill

Stat to know: When the Hornets win, they win big. Their plus-18.2 average scoring margin in wins is the best in NBA history.

Betting nugget: The Hornets have been one of the hottest and most competitive teams since the All-Star break, ranking second in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating while going 18-9. Charlotte also is 14-7 at home as a favorite this season. Ball’s post-All-Star break surge has fueled Charlotte’s rise, but whether he can sustain it in the postseason is the real question. He has averaged 23.7 points and 9.0 assists in three games against Miami this season. – Moody

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10. Miami Heat (43-39)

First play-in matchup: Charlotte Hornets
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.0%
NBA title odds: +70000

What to watch in the play-in:

Even with Jimmy Butler III long gone, the Heat have endured a roller-coaster season. Miami’s offense opened looking explosive, only for the team to hover slightly above .500 in late February. The Heat won seven straight and watched Bam Adebayo detonate for 83 points in early March before dropping 10 of the next 13. Miami’s defense has sputtered, surrendering 120 or more points 13 times since March 6. – Youngmisuk

One big question for the postseason:

Can Erik Spoelstra work his postseason magic again? Miami has advanced out of three consecutive play-ins. Despite a maddeningly inconsistent season, the Heat will have the confidence of knowing they can claw their way out of the play-in. But Spoelstra will need a healthy Tyler Herro and Norman Powell to hum from the perimeter with Adebayo doing a little bit of everything and shoring up the Heat’s defense. And if they do find a way to get out of the play-in, the Heat will be looking to redeem themselves for last year’s embarrassing first-round pummeling at the hands of the Cavs. – Youngmisuk

Player who can swing the first round:

Adebayo. Miami made a farce of its first-round series a year ago, getting swept by Cleveland and losing the last two games by a combined 92 points. For organizational pride, the Heat cannot do that again. The player most in charge of that is Adebayo, who brought a lot of pride with his 83-point game last month. The Heat need him to do something harder than 83 points: make everyone better in order to match the top seed they’ll face. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

They advance out of the play-in again. The standard for the Heat franchise is competing for championships. But they’ve turned the play-in tournament into the Heat Invitational the past three seasons. Last year, they were noncompetitive against Cleveland in the first round; securing the 8-seed and giving Detroit a series would be optimal, for the short term. – Goodwill

Stat to know: Miami led the league in pace after finishing in the bottom five in each of the previous six seasons.

Betting nugget: The Heat won three of four regular-season meetings against the Hornets, with the total going over in three of those games. However, Charlotte is favored at home and ranks third in net rating since the All-Star break, making it a team that shouldn’t be overlooked. This is a spot where relying solely on regular-season trends could be misleading. – Moody

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18)

Round 1 matchup: Phoenix Suns
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 60.3%
NBA title odds: +110

What to watch for in Round 1:

Despite the grit of the Suns in the play-in tournament, the Thunder will be heavy favorites in the first round. Oklahoma City benefited from busting out the brooms in the first round last season, getting eight days in between series after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies. For a team that dealt with so many injuries throughout the season, reducing wear and tear should be a motivating factor for the Thunder. – Tim MacMahon

One big question for the postseason:

Can Jalen Williams perform as the co-star the Thunder need alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

Williams, whose 40-point performance in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last season ranks as the most important individual outing in franchise playoff history, has endured a frustrating season because of a lengthy recovery from offseason wrist surgery and a recurring hamstring strain. He used the last few weeks of the regular season to try to find a rhythm after returning from an extended absence. – MacMahon

Player who can swing the first round:

Chet Holmgren. The Thunder bench adds as many net points per game as half the starting units in the league. Two of the starting units it outperforms are Phoenix and Golden State, so if OKC faces one of those teams, you could say its bench was enough.

If the Thunder face the Clippers, though, they’ll need a starter or two. Gilgeous-Alexander can rescue them, but in this first round, let’s say Holmgren should help carry them. He almost did in last year’s first round. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if…

The Thunder’s standard is now incredibly high. They have been the league’s best team for a solid 18 straight months. This season, they had several players solidify their roles and their value, but especially Ajay Mitchell, who averaged career highs across the board as OKC dealt with injuries throughout the season. Because of their depth, the Thunder have demonstrated an ability to play a number of different styles, dominate the clutch and rely on numerous players. It’s not a championship or break-up-the-core. But it is championship or failure. – Brian Windhorst

Stat to know: The Thunder started strong and finished strong. OKC opened the season 24-1 and finished 19-3. (The team rested key players in the final two games, both losses.)

Betting nugget: The Thunder are strong favorites to repeat as champions, with +120 odds that are very close to even money with the field. For those who want to bet on the Thunder to win, one way to get more juice could be to bet the “Finals Exact Result” market on DraftKings. For example, the Celtics are clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference at +145, well ahead of the Cavaliers (+350) or Pistons (+450). A bet on the Thunder to beat the Celtics in the Finals yields +450 odds on DraftKings, solidly more juice than just Thunder to win (+120). – Andre Snellings

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2. San Antonio Spurs (62-20)

Round 1 matchup: Portland Trail Blazers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 28.2%
NBA title odds: +500

What to watch for in Round 1:

Victor Wembanyama suffered a bruised left rib April 6, and it’s unknown how the injury might affect him against increased physicality in the postseason. Though the injury appears to be relatively minor, Wembanyama probably will have to deal with a certain level of pain.

How will that affect his shot and his mobility? Opposing teams saw success imposing increased physicality against the 22-year-old Frenchman in the regular season, so the Spurs should expect the same in the first round against the Trail Blazers. – Michael C. Wright

One big question for the postseason:

Can the inexperienced Spurs control the pace? San Antonio stymied opponents during the regular season with a breakneck pace of play that showcased the club’s youth, speed and athleticism. In the postseason, the game slows down and becomes more of a half-court slugfest. Can the inexperienced Spurs consistently execute in the half court over 48 minutes in these high-stakes outings? – Wright

Player who can swing the first round:

Julian Champagnie. Last year, Ty Jerome went into the playoffs for Cleveland after a breakout regular season, then he had a major dud in the second round. For the Spurs, Champagnie has been so good, with and without Wembanyama on the court, providing a stabilizing presence … something Jerome did for the Cavs last year. I think Champagnie is pretty tough, so I believe he will come through in the first round and make it easy, but I didn’t see Jerome’s flop coming last year. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if…

The Spurs are already there. Wembanyama has had a breakout season and has showed how, at 22, he has elevated his two-way game to an MVP level. Stephon Castle, at 21, has already developed into one of the league’s best defensive guards; Dylan Harper will be on the All-Rookie Team; Keldon Johnson might win Sixth Man of the Year; and coach Mitch Johnson has demonstrated he’s worthy of the job. Sure, you can say they have to win X playoff games or X rounds, but this postseason is a free roll. They’ve hit their benchmarks. Expectations will be coming for them in the coming years either way. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The Spurs became the fourth team in NBA history to win at least 60 games after missing the playoffs the previous season, joining the 2007-08 Celtics, 2004-05 Suns and 1979-80 Celtics.

Betting nugget: The Spurs are +500 to win the NBA Finals, but Wembanyama is +600 to win Finals MVP. If the Spurs are to win the Finals, it’s overwhelmingly likely they could do so behind only a standout effort from Wembanyama. So, for those who want to back the Spurs to win it all, I find more value in betting Wembanyama for Finals MVP than on the team to win. – Snellings

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3. Denver Nuggets (54-28)

Round 1 matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 7.4%
NBA title odds: +950

What to watch for in Round 1:

This is a rematch of the Nuggets’ seven-game series loss in the 2024 West semifinals, when Denver’s usually dominant offense sputtered, scoring under triple digits in all four losses to the Wolves. Jamal Murray, who just had his best regular season yet, can get some retribution for what was arguably his worst playoff series. Murray averaged 18.4 points on 40.3% shooting in those seven games, including 3-of-18 and 4-of-18 outings in a couple of the losses. – MacMahon

One big question for the postseason:

Can Aaron Gordon stay healthy? Gordon, who has dealt with a series of calf and hamstring strains over the past two seasons, isn’t just a glue guy. He’s the duct tape to Denver’s defense. The Nuggets will especially need Gordon to guard Victor Wembanyama if they run into the Spurs. – MacMahon

Player who can swing the first round:

Gordon. The Nuggets have played only slightly better at home than on the road this season. In Denver, you have to take advantage of the altitude. So who isn’t exploiting it? Gordon.

He was Denver’s standout in the playoffs a year ago, but he has struggled with injuries and thin air this season, playing 2.1 net points per game worse at home than on the road. The Nuggets’ first-round series with home-court advantage could be very competitive, and they need him to be better. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if…

The Nuggets could make a case that they could’ve won each of the past three titles and that winning one of the three was the bare minimum. That said, given the depth and ceilings of the Thunder and Spurs, they will be underdogs to make a deep run this year. So if they make it to a conference finals and have a puncher’s chance, they will have at least stolen a series after letting two slip through their fingers. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The Nuggets are the first team in NBA history to have multiple players with at least 1,500 points and 500 assists in the same season (Nikola Jokic and Murray).

Betting nugget: Though the Nuggets are +800 to win the NBA Finals, the fourth-best odds according to DraftKings, Jokic is actually +800 to win Finals MVP. Jokic is an amazing player, arguably the best in the league, but it is overwhelmingly unlikely that he would win Finals MVP if the Nuggets don’t win the championship. The only player to win Finals MVP from the losing team was Jerry West in the 1969 Finals. With almost 60 years of precedent as support, I find more value in betting the Nuggets to win the Finals than in Jokic to win Finals MVP. – Snellings

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4. Los Angeles Lakers (53-29)

Round 1 matchup: Houston Rockets
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.8%
NBA title odds: +25000

What to watch for in Round 1:

The Lakers stabilized to a certain degree to close out the regular season with three straight wins after initially reeling from the Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves injuries. LeBron James shifted back to the No. 1 option; Luke Kennard was asked to be an on-ball initiator; and Marcus Smart returned from his lengthy ankle injury absence. With home-court advantage secured and five days off before Houston comes to town for Game 1, the Lakers will try to come up with a game plan to take down a Rockets team that won nine out of 10 to finish the season. “We’re going to prepare and we’re going to fight and we’re going to go try to win the series,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said. – Dave McMenamin

One big question for the postseason:

Can the Lakers stay alive in the playoffs long enough for Doncic and Reaves to return from their respective injuries? The Lakers’ late-season momentum came to a screeching halt April 2 in Oklahoma City when Doncic suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, Reaves suffered a Grade 2 left oblique muscle injury and the Thunder pounded the Lakers by 43. Can James shift back from the third option and lead L.A. to wins while those guys are on the mend? – McMenamin

Player who can swing the first round:

James. A month ago, there was concern about the chemistry across the Lakers’ three stars. After a successful month of improved chemistry, two of them were injured. There are no chemistry issues anymore, are there? Now, James just has to see if all those career-extending devices and tricks have staying power. James’ four best games of the season had him adding plus-11, plus-9.2, plus-8.2 and plus-8 net points. That’s about plus-9 points per game toward winning. Looking at him, Doncic and Reaves, they added plus-8.5 per game, so the very best of James for four days could get L.A. to the second round. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

Disaster struck in OKC last week. Two of their three best players, Doncic and Reaves, were injured in the game and are out for weeks. Getting to the second round would be worthy of a celebration – and might give Doncic and Reaves a chance to return. Short of that, I don’t see how the Lakers can feel anything but crushed by the misfortune of the end of the regular season. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The Lakers went an NBA-best 40-1 during the regular season when leading through three quarters.

Betting nugget: The Lakers are adjusting to life without Doncic and Reaves, while James is also playing through a hand injury. With both sidelined, James returns to a primary playmaking role this roster wasn’t built around. Their title odds have dropped to 150-1 to win the NBA championship, and they are big underdogs to win the series against the Rockets (+550). – Moody

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5. Houston Rockets (52-30)

Round 1 matchup: Los Angeles Lakers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 2.9%
NBA title odds: +6000

What to watch for in Round 1:

Houston appeared to overcome some of the issues with chemistry that plagued it at times during the regular season, but what happens once the pressure is ratcheted up a notch in the playoffs? Remember, the Rockets are playing without four high-level contributors (Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green) from last season’s squad, and they’ve spent the majority of 2025-26 working out the expected kinks that came with adding a generational player in Kevin Durant. – Wright

One big question for the postseason:

Do the Rockets have a closer? The blown leads throughout the regular season were concerning, but those took place because of an inability to consistently generate offense in late-game situations. That’s partially a product of point guard VanVleet’s absence because of a season-ending injury. Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard and Alperen Sengun have shown improvement, but can they rise to the moment come playoff time? – Wright

Player who can swing the first round:

Jabari Smith Jr. He has been very average this season at essentially 0.0 net points per 48 minutes at both ends of the court. But he was bad against playoff-level teams and bad in the clutch – and he actually led the league in “threshold losses,” games in which the Rockets “would have won” if he hadn’t played. We don’t really know who the Rockets’ leader is, but they need Smith to step up if they want to get out of the first round. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

This team is still very much finding itself. Losers of six of 10 games in mid-March, the Rockets responded by winning nine of their final 10, even though they still lack a proven point guard. Winning a series would be a huge step forward for them, and they might have a chance against a wounded Lakers team. – Windhorst

Stat to know: Not only did the Rockets lead the NBA this season in rebound differential, but their plus-8.6 mark was third best in league history since 1970-71.

Betting nugget: The Rockets have struggled against weaker competition, with more losses to sub-.500 teams than the Suns, Spurs, Lakers and Thunder. They also lean heavily on Durant, who carries a 28.5% usage rate, making them vulnerable if defenses key in on him. Houston is just 5-9 in games decided by three or fewer points, raising concerns about their ability to close out tight matchups. – Moody

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6. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)

Round 1 matchup: Denver Nuggets
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.3%
NBA title odds: +9000

What to watch for in Round 1:

After two straight trips to the West finals, the Wolves are not a group brimming with momentum heading into this postseason. They closed out the regular season going 5-5 and finished eighth in defensive rating, a slip from sixth a season ago; they’re 13th in offensive rating, when they were eighth last season. Still, they have Anthony Edwards entering his prime after averaging a career-best 28.8 points, many of the same players from their past couple of playoff runs in Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo and Jaden McDaniels, and emerging contributors in Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland. – McMenamin

One big question for the postseason:

How healthy are Edwards and McDaniels? Edwards sat out 10 out of 11 games from mid-March through early April because of a right runner’s knee injury, and McDaniels recently sat out six straight games because of patellar tendinopathy and a bone bruise in his left knee. The Wolves proved by making it to the conference finals as the No. 6 seed last spring that they shouldn’t be underestimated as a lower seed – but that’s when they were at full strength. – McMenamin

Player who can swing the first round:

Edwards. He is the only Timberwolves player whose net points against playoff-level teams is above zero (plus-3.2 per 48 minutes). Zero means average, and most of them are below it. Edwards, who has dealt with a right knee injury this season, has to raise the play of his teammates. For the record, last season’s Wolves came from the No. 6 seed to the conference finals, but nearly their entire rotation was positive against playoff-level teams. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

Two of their three best players, Edwards and McDaniels, are going into the playoffs dealing with injuries. Although Minnesota is still a dangerous low seed, the concept of it making a third straight conference finals seems like a long shot. But that’s the bar. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The starting lineup of DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Randle and Gobert played 710 minutes together this season – that’s more than 150 minutes more than any other lineup in the league.

Betting nugget: The Timberwolves are long shots to win the Western Conference at +2200, according to DraftKings. But they are the only team in the NBA to have played in each of the past two conference finals. The Timberwolves also have an overall winning record against the top two seeds in the West, with four wins and three losses against the Thunder and the Spurs, making them the rare long shot with such solid justification. – Snellings

Western Conference play-in

7. Phoenix Suns (45-37)

First play-in matchup: Portland Trail Blazers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1%
NBA title odds: +60000

What to watch in the play-in:

Devin Booker is back in the postseason for the fifth time in the past six years – with his third different coach. Phoenix remade its team with an offseason trade with Houston, sending out Kevin Durant and bringing in Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. The Suns also fired Mike Budenholzer and hired Jordan Ott, who built the team into a top-10 defense in his first season as a head coach. Booker is coming off another All-Star season; Brooks had a career year; Collin Gillespie is a contender for most improved player; and Grayson Allen was one of the best bench scorers in the league, all of which makes Phoenix no slouch as the No. 7 seed. – McMenamin

One big question for the postseason:

Is the Suns’ regular-season success against San Antonio an indicator of how competitive the series will be? Phoenix went 2-2 against the Spurs, with one of those losses – a 101-100 defeat on March 19 – coming without Brooks available. And if the Suns can make it a series early, will San Antonio’s playoff inexperience work in Phoenix’s favor? – McMenamin

Player who can swing the first round:

Brooks. The Suns were 30-19 and sixth in the West on Feb. 1. Brooks was coming off two of the best games of his career, posting plus-8.1 net points vs Cleveland and plus-10.2 vs Detroit in wins. Since then, the Suns are 14-17, and Brooks has sat out a lot of games – he fractured his left hand Feb. 21 and sat out more than a month – and missed many shots. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

It’s already successful, regardless of the postseason result. The Suns’ preseason projections ranked them 13th in the Western Conference, with win totals in the low 30s. Under Ott, they have exceeded expectations in almost every way. Their cap and draft-pick situation is another conversation. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The Suns finished the regular season fifth in made 3s (14.8 per game) and allowed the second-fewest 3s (12.2 per game); that plus-2.6 differential ranked third in the league.

Betting nugget: The Suns are in the play-in, but the trends favor them. The No. 7 seed has reached the playoffs 100% of the time in the play-in era and holds an 8-2 record in the opening home game. The Suns are in a strong position historically, but the play-in format is volatile enough that things can go wrong quickly. – Moody

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8. Portland Trail Blazers (42-40)

First play-in matchup: Phoenix Suns
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.0%
NBA title odds: +200000

What to watch in the play-in:

The youth. Nobody is expecting a deep run from the Blazers, but even a taste of postseason basketball should have a growth effect for the youngest layer of this evolving roster. Donovan Clingan has been impressive the past few months. How does he respond as the stakes elevate? Can Scoot Henderson finish off what has been a rocky third season on a positive note? Deni Avdija has emerged into a legitimate go-to scorer for the Blazers, but playoff schemes and defensive focus tend to reveal more about weaknesses in a star’s game. The Blazers leveled up this season. They should get more information over the next couple of weeks on how many levels they still have to go. – Anthony Slater

One big question for the postseason:

Can their defense translate enough to keep them competitive? The Blazers have the fourth-ranked defense since the All-Star break. Clingan is an improving paint protector. Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday hound on the perimeter. They can hold teams down. Considering they have to win through the play-in just to get a crack at the Spurs or the Thunder – league-best defenses they will have a challenging time scoring against – they’ll need to succeed on the defensive end to survive. – Slater

Player who can swing the first round:

Camara. When he puts together his offense with his ability to force turnovers, he is Portland’s best player. The problem is that he has done that mostly against bad teams. Most of the rest of the Blazers’ primary rotation has been pretty good against playoff-level opponents. Camara needs to be at least decent offensively if they’re going to make a dent. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

Already there. The Blazers are assured of at least some postseason play and will get at least one home game, which is significant progress after four years in the NBA wilderness. With Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe and Clingan, a core is beginning to take shape in Portland. The Blazers have a long way to go, but the first steps have been taken. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The Blazers led the league in second-chance points per game (18.4). That is the second best by any team since 1996-97 (the 2021-22 Grizzlies averaged 18.7)

Betting nugget: The Blazers are a strong defensive team this season. In fact, over the past 15 games, Portland has the top defensive rating in the NBA. Though Portland and Phoenix have gone over the total in two of three matchups this season, bettors should note that defense typically tightens up in the playoffs. – Moody

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9. LA Clippers (42-40)

First play-in matchup: Golden State Warriors
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.0%
NBA title odds: +70000

What to watch in the play-in:

After starting 6-21, the Clippers finished 36-19 to complete coach Tyronn Lue’s challenge to finish above .500 and qualify for the postseason. They’ll host the Golden State Warriors at Intuit Dome, with a chance to play the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. As difficult as that series promises to be, it might be more difficult for the Clips to see former teammate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander suiting up on the other side. – McMenamin

One big question for the postseason:

After his finest season as a Clipper, what does Kawhi Leonard have in store for the playoffs? The former two-time NBA Finals MVP has been available for only 35 of the 50 postseason games LA has played since he left Toronto. With Paul George, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all gone, Leonard is the last man standing from the “Streetlights over Spotlights” era of the Clips. – McMenamin

Player who can swing the first round:

Leonard. The Clippers have faced an uphill battle since their awful start to the season. There were a number of players who helped get them out of that hole, but Leonard has performed at an All-NBA level.

With an uphill battle in the playoffs and Leonard having one of his best seasons ever, he is poised to lead a pretty good group of veterans into a tough matchup for a top seed. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

It’s very unlikely they will reach any designation to make it so. The Clippers have had back-to-back largely healthy seasons from Leonard and, still, might get nothing out of it. Their decision to dump talent at the trade deadline sent the signal across the NBA that they didn’t believe in the roster and needed to start a rebuild. – Windhorst

Stat to know: LA had the West’s third-best win percentage (.655) since Dec. 20, the day Chris Paul was sent home from the team.

Betting nugget: The Clippers (-3.5, 220.5) took the regular-season series 3-1 over the Warriors, including a recent win without Leonard, and have shown matchup success. But both teams have struggled in the play-in, with Los Angeles at 0-2 and Golden State 1-3. Though Leonard and Curry headline this matchup, the Clippers’ edge in previous meetings and overall depth could give them the advantage in this high-variance spot. – Moody

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10. Golden State Warriors (37-45)

First play-in matchup: LA Clippers
BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.0%
NBA title odds: +80000

What to watch in the play-in:

Kristaps Porzingis, on an expiring $30.7 million contract, represents one of the bigger choices the Warriors’ front office needs to make this summer. He brings a tantalizing skill set this team lacks – a 7-footer who stretches the floor and protects the rim – but his questionable health and availability make him a risk. They have next to zero data with him next to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. The fit should work in theory, but the Warriors would feel a whole lot more comfortable committing money to Porzingis this summer if they can see a handful of high leverage games in which he is healthy enough to give 30-plus minutes and is clicking with their core. – Slater

One big question for the postseason:

Is it actually better for the Warriors to lose in the play-in? If the Warriors survive two road play-in games, their reward will be a first-round series with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, waiting after a week of rest and prep. In doing so, they’d be giving up a 9.4% chance at a top-four pick in a loaded draft and, assuming they don’t jump up in the lottery, sacrificing the 11th pick for a slight tumble to 15th. The organization will make a real effort to reach the postseason for Curry and the veterans, but it isn’t difficult to understand that a quick play-in loss, summer of rest and chance at lottery luck is healthier for the franchise. – Slater

Player who can swing the first round:

Curry. Let’s set this straight – there is one way for the Warriors to move past the first round that doesn’t involve science fiction. That way requires Curry to be the best he can be. He had back-to-back outstanding games in wins over San Antonio in November, posting plus-14.2 and plus-11.7 net points. That’s what Curry can still do, and they need it. – Oliver

They will consider this a successful postseason if …

If Curry gets to play some playoff games. That’s the bar this season. He doesn’t have that many left, so any additional prime-time games are a bonus to a Hall of Fame career. With Jimmy Butler out and a roster filled with holes, the Warriors are not going anywhere meaningful this spring. – Windhorst

Stat to know: The Warriors went 24-19 (.558 win percentage) in games with Curry this season and 13-26 without him (.333).

Betting nugget: The Warriors have made the playoffs in three of the past six seasons, highlighted by their 2021-22 championship run. But outside of that title, their results have been uneven, with early exits and missed opportunities. Their path is brutal, and though Curry keeps them dangerous, a lack of depth and consistency could be exposed in a playoff series. Golden State is also just 2-8 against the spread in its past 10 games against the Clippers. – Moody