By Boxscorehistory | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-09 12:30:00
我必须承认，在昨天的比赛开始前，我并没有抱太高的期望。毕竟，斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 都缺席了比赛，而且马刺队其实已经无欲无求（他们获得头号种子的概率现在正式归零）。相比之下，波特兰今晚若能取胜，战绩将追平快船队，从而让他们有极佳的机会在常规赛结束时提升附加赛的排名。尽管如此，阵容不整的马刺队依然火力全开，在前三节的每一节都取得了领先，展现了令人印象深刻的阵容深度和全面性。虽然我不愿看到伤病，尤其是在赛季末段，但令人欣慰的是，这支“银黑军团”在缺少两名核心球员的情况下，依然能够击败一支动力十足的对手。
另一个好消息是——虽然这场比赛的技术统计在某些方面平淡无奇——但它确实产生了一些与罚球相关的极不寻常的数据组合，正如你将在下文看到的。我今天正在尝试一种略微修改的高光格式：首先，我将概述决定比赛胜负的关键技术统计因素；其次，我将指出技术统计中包含的任何显著罕见情况。这些文章仍处于不断演进的阶段，所以请告诉我你的看法！
决定比赛的因素
- 这场比赛在许多关键领域都相当平衡，即使存在失衡的地方，也往往相互抵消了。
- 在平衡的数据方面，圣安东尼奥在总篮板上略占优势（+2），在失误上略逊一筹（+1），在总进攻篮板上则没有优势或劣势。马刺队在进攻篮板率（此处未列出）上确实有优势，但同样比较微弱。
- 马刺队的投篮效率明显更高，投篮命中率（FG%）和三分命中率（3P%）分别领先3.7个和5.5个百分点。然而，这些优势被波特兰在出手数上的优势所抵消，其投篮出手数（FGA）和三分出手数（3PA）分别领先5次和8次。这些相互竞争的力量产生的净结果是，圣安东尼奥多进了一个两分球，少进了一个三分球，因此在运动战得分上仅领先开拓者队1分。
- 在其他各项数据基本持平的情况下，这场比赛实际上是在罚球线上决胜负的。幸运的是，马刺队在罚球次数（+9 FTA）以及尤其是罚球命中率（+28.95个百分点）上都拥有巨大优势，导致罚球命中数（FTM）差值为+10（也就是说，这占到了圣安东尼奥最终领先优势的91%左右）。
罕见的技术统计数据
- 马刺队在罚球线上的胜利显得很诡异，因为尽管两队合计的罚球次数和效率都不算出色，但这个差值却相当大。
- 例如，这场比赛仅是过去13个常规赛中，获胜球队在罚球次数不超过19次的情况下，罚球命中数领先对手10个或更多的第40次。换句话说，这种组合平均每个常规赛大约发生3次，或者说大约每422场比赛中发生一次。
- 在上述40场比赛中，获胜球队几乎总是凭借极高的效率获得巨大的罚球命中数优势。然而，马刺队本场比赛的罚球命中率基本处于平均水平。事实上，自2012-2013赛季以来，常规赛获胜者在罚球次数不超过19次、且罚球命中率不高于78.95%的情况下，罚球命中数领先10个或更多的情况仅出现过五次，大约每3372场常规赛才会出现一次。
- 由于波特兰惨不忍睹的罚球命中率（50%），圣安东尼奥在自身罚球命中率仅为78.95%的情况下，依然实现了+28.95个百分点的命中率领先优势。在过去的13个常规赛中，大约每375个获胜者中才有一个在罚球命中率如此糟糕（或更差）的情况下达到或超过这一命中率差值（每个常规赛大约出现3.3次）。
什么是团队评分技术统计表？
简单来说，这些技术统计表对获胜者与失败者之间的基础数据差值进行评分，评分标准基于获胜者相对于特定参考时期内其他NBA获胜者的差值表现。可以把它看作是一张成绩单，用来了解某一特定获胜者相对于其他获胜者的表现。所使用的参考时期从2012-2013赛季开始到最近的比赛日，且仅包括相同赛季类别的比赛（即常规赛和季后赛不会相互比较）。
数据来源： 用于创建这些技术统计表的基础数据收集自Basketball Reference。在所有情况下，数据均在比赛结束后的次日早晨收集。虽然罕见，但数据收集后可能会发生赛后统计修正，并可能对事后结果产生影响。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Box Grades: Rare free throw stats lift Spurs to 61st win
Box Grades: Rare free throw stats lift Spurs to 61st win
I must admit that I didn’t have high hopes entering yesterday’s game. After all, both Castle and Wemby were sidelined, and the Spurs weren’t really playing for anything (the chance of them getting the first seed is now officially zero). In contrast, a Portland win tonight would have matched their record with the Clippers, giving them an excellent chance to finish the regular season with an improved position in the play-in. Even so, the shorthanded Spurs came out firing and won each of the first three quarters, showcasing impressive depth and versatility. While I hate to see injuries, especially this late in the season, it is heartening to know that this iteration of the Silver and Black can beat a motivated opponent without two of its best players.
Another piece of good news is that — while the box score for this game was pretty vanilla in some respects — it did produce some highly unusual combinations related to free throws, as you will see below. I’m testing out a slightly modified format for the highlights today; first, I’ll outline the key box score factors that determined the game. Second, I’ll identify any notable rarities contained within the box score. These posts are still new and evolving, so please let me know what you think!
Factors that Decided the Game
- This game was quite balanced in many key areas, and where imbalances existed they were often offsetting.
- Regarding balanced stats, San Antonio had a minor edge in total rebounds (+2), a minor deficit in turnovers (+1), and no advantage or disadvantage in total offensive rebounds. San Antonio did have an edge in ORB% (not pictured here), but again it was mild.
- The Spurs were notably more efficient from the field, including FG% and 3P% margins of +3.7 and +5.5 percentage points, respectively. However, these advantages were offset by Portland’s edge in volume, including FGA and 3PA margins of +5 and +8, respectively. The net result of these competing forces was that San Antonio made one more field goal and one less three, thus outscoring the Blazers by a single point from the field.
- With everything else being a wash, this game was effectively decided at the free throw line. Fortunately, the Spurs had big advantages in both volume (+9 FTA) and especially FT% ( +28.95 percentage points), resulting in a FTM differential of +10 (i.e., about 91% of San Antonio’s final margin of victory).
Rare Box Score Stats
- The Spurs’ victory at the charity stripe was weird, because it was quite large despite the combined free throw volume and efficiency of the two teams being unimpressive.
- For example, this contest marked just the 40th time in the last 13 regular seasons that a winning team achieved a FTM differential of +10 or better on no more than 19 FTA. Put another way, this combination happens about 3 times per regular season on average, or about once in every 422 games.
- In the set of 40 games mentioned above, the winning team almost always achieved their large FTM margin with excellent efficiency. However, the Spurs’ FT% in this game was basically average. In fact, regular season winners have earned a FTM margin of +10 or more on 19 of fewer FTA and a FT% no better than 78.95% just five times since 2012-2013, or about once in every 3,372 regular season games.
- Due to Portland’s dreadful FT% (50%), San Antonio achieved a FT% margin of +28.95 percentage points despite having a FT% of just 78.95%. In the last 13 regular seasons, about one in every 375 winners have met or bettered that FT% differential with a FT% that bad or worse (that’s about 3.3 instances per regular season).
What are Team Graded Box Scores?
Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).
***Data Source:*The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected fromBasketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.
By Boxscorehistory, via Pounding The Rock