By Marilyn Dubinski | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-07 20:04:11
NBA发明65场比赛限制规则是为了解决它认为的一个重大问题（无论公平与否，这总是会和格雷格·波波维奇 (Gregg Popovich) 以及马刺队联系在一起）：负荷管理。其核心思路很简单：明星球员在诸如背靠背比赛的第二晚或常规赛末段轮休，以保护他们免受伤害并为季后赛保存体力。（回想2011年，马努·吉诺比利 (Manu Ginobili) 在马刺队的常规赛收官战开场一分钟就摔断了肘部：这场比赛对马刺唯一的意义，就是确保在公牛队打进总决赛的情况下拥有主场优势。结果新闻快报传来，MVP德里克·罗斯 (Derrick Rose) 受伤了，公牛没进总决赛。马刺也没进，他们在首轮面对拖着伤腿的马努，没能跨过灰熊队这道坎。没人想看到悲剧重演。）
NBA并不喜欢负荷管理，尤其是当这些比赛是在全美直播时。因此，他们创造了一种激励机制来让球星留在场上：如果一名球员出场次数不足65场，他就没有资格获得常规赛奖项以及入选最佳阵容或最佳防守阵容，而这会直接影响到球员的续约合同或内置奖金。于是，这项规则诞生了。但问题在于：它解决错了问题。
NBA可以将负荷管理视为球星缺阵的主要原因，因为这能让他们免于责备，但事实并非如此；真正的元凶是伤病。就目前情况来看，由于过去几周的伤病，几位MVP候选人正面临或将面临无法达到65场最低门槛的风险。凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 遭遇了肺部塌陷，卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 腿筋拉伤，而维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 就在昨晚肋骨挫伤。尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 也在及格线上徘徊，此前赛季初的膝伤让他连续缺席了16场比赛。
但关键点在于：这些球员并不是因为“负荷管理”了18场或更多比赛而濒临失去资格，而是因为伤病。例如，在文班迄今为止缺席的16场比赛中，只有两场可以被认定为“负荷管理”。其他14场中，有12场是因为令人头疼的小腿拉伤，两场是因为腹斜肌拉伤，上述其他球员的情况也大抵如此。结果，联盟并没有惩罚负荷管理，而是在惩罚伤病，甚至可能迫使球员为了获得被认可的权利而提前复出。在某种程度上，他们对常规赛的重视程度超过了季后赛，这似乎有些适得其反。
并非巧合，YouTube频道 Thinking Basketball 今天刚刚发布了一个视频，讨论为什么NBA的这项规则搞错了。他们审视了现代NBA伤病增加的主要原因——即更快的节奏、更多的跑动和剧烈的发力蹬地，以及球员的蹬地动作（这就是约基奇受伤的原因）——以及NBA可以采取哪些措施来解决“真正”的问题（包括他们不想承认的两件事：漫长的赛程和背靠背比赛，尤其是客场作战）。这是一个值得一看的15分钟视频，请务必通过下方或上方的链接查看。
NBA想要每晚为球迷呈现最佳比赛产品的初衷或许是好的，但正如他们常做的那样，他们为一个错误的问题创造了解决方案，从而产生了一个全新的问题。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The NBA’s 65-game rule addresses the wrong problem
The NBA’s 65-game rule addresses the wrong problem
The NBA invented the 65-game limit rule to address what it perceived to be a major problem (that, fairly or not, will always get tied back to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs): load management. The idea was simple: star players were being rested in situations such as the second night of back-to-backs or late in the regular season to protect them from injury and save them for the playoffs. (Think back to 2011, when Manu Ginobili broke his elbow in the opening minute of the Spurs’ regular season finale: a game whose only meaning to the Spurs was securing home court advantage in the Finals if the Bulls made it. News flash, MVP Derrick Rose got hurt, and they didn’t. Neither did the Spurs, who couldn’t get past the Grizzlies in round one with a hobbled Manu. No one wants a repeat of that.)
The NBA didn’t like the load management, especially when those games were on national television, so they created an incentive to keep stars on the court: if a player doesn’t appear in at least 65 games, he is not eligible for regular season awards and All-NBA/Defensive Teams, which can directly impact a player’s contract extension or built in bonuses. Thus the rule was born, but here’s the problem: it addresses the wrong issue.
The NBA can point to load management as the leading problem towards stars missing games since that releases them from blame, but it’s not; it’s more injuries. As we stand, several MVP candidates are at risk of or will miss the 65-game minimum due to injury in the last couple of weeks. Cade Cunningham suffered a collapsed lung, Luka Doncic a strained hamstring, and Victor Wembanyama a bruised rib just last night. Nikola Jokic is also toing the line after a knee injury earlier in the season sidelined him for 16 straight games.
But here’s the thing: these players aren’t on the brink of missing out because they were “load managing” for 18 or more games, it was injury. For example, of Wemby’s 16 missed games so far, only two of them could be identified as “load management”. The other 14 were 12 for the dreaded calf strain and two from a strained oblique, and the same can be said for the other players mentioned above. As a result, instead of punishing load management, the league is punishing injury, possibly even forcing players back sooner than needed so they can earn the right to be recognized. In a way, they are also putting more emphasis on the regular season than playoffs, which seems counter intuitive.
Not coincidently, YouTube channel Thinking Basketball just published a video today about why the NBA has this rule wrong. They look at the leading cause of increased injury in the modern NBA — namely the quicker pace, more movement and hard planting, and players pushing off (which was how Jokic got hurt) — and what the NBA can do to address the REAL problem (including, the two things they don’t want to acknowledge: the long schedule and back-to-backs, especially on the road). It’s a good 15-minute watch, so be sure to check it out below or with the link above.
The NBA’s heart may in the right place in trying to put the best possible product on the floor for the fans each and every night, but as they are wont to do, they created a solution for the wrong problem, thus creating an entirely new one.
By Marilyn Dubinski, via Pounding The Rock