[The Athletic] NBA常规赛最后一周:摆烂、排名及其他悬念

By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-04-06 14:15:58

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本赛季仅剩最后七天,有太多值得关注的动向。东西部联盟的排名依然扑朔迷离。摆烂现象已经失控,联盟中近三分之一的球队都在试图输球。与此同时,各类球队在最糟糕的时机分别陷入了连胜狂潮或连败泥潭。

今天,我们将为你梳理常规赛余下时间里需要关注的一切。我们还准备了“NBA红黑榜”的扩展版,这是《The Bounce》周一的固定栏目。那是我们的免费NBA新闻通讯,你可以点击订阅,每天在收件箱中查收。


NBA红黑榜(扩展版)

:chart_increasing: 休斯顿火箭 (49-29)。 火箭队六连胜期间的对手大多实力较弱。然而,休斯顿确实需要这些胜利,他们现在有机会争夺季后赛首轮的主场优势。火箭此前在比赛收官阶段表现得一团糟,无法通过连胜跟上(受伤前的)洛杉矶湖人和丹佛掘金的步伐。因此,对于这支可能最终在季后赛前建立起势头的球队来说,这段赛程非常及时。

阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 最近手感热得发烫。在这段时期内,他场均出战31.5分钟,以57.6%/50.0%/72.7%的命中率砍下21.8分。更重要的是,他的组织能力达到了精英级别。他场均贡献6.6次助攻,这看起来可能不算惊人,但他场均仅有1.3次失误。这意味着在过去六场比赛中,他送出了40次助攻,仅有8次失误。对于一名在运球时常遭到对方包夹的组织型大个子来说,这表现相当出色。阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 在此期间也贡献了33次助攻且仅有6次失误。伊梅·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka) 一定很欣慰他的组织者们能如此爱惜球权。在季后赛中,他们也需要保持这种表现。

:chart_decreasing: 65场规定。 凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham)、安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 以及现在的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 的伤病,正让NBA奖项评选的65场门槛承受巨大压力。亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 驳斥了对该规则的批评,称其在促使球星出战更多比赛、减少负荷管理方面效果显著。在上个月的理事会会议后,这原本只影响到一个案例(康宁汉姆)。但现在,爱德华兹因为在赛季第三场比赛中因腿筋受伤仅打了3分钟,也将因出勤时长不足而无缘评选。东契奇的常规赛也因腿筋伤势止步于64场。康宁汉姆目前出战了61场。爱德华兹将因为那场只打3分钟的比赛,以一场之差错失资格。

这到底解决了什么问题?这些球员本赛季确实遭遇了真实的伤病。爱德华兹一直在与腿筋和膝伤作斗争。康宁汉姆遭遇了肺部萎陷。东契奇则一直在处理各种腿部和腿筋问题。而他们将失去评奖资格,因为NBA正固执地坚持这项规则而不是去修正它。说真的,他们应该废除这项规则,就像2006年他们很快意识到新款合成球很糟糕时所做的那样。NBA已经拿到了转播费,不需要这种愚蠢的规则。球员们想打球,应该惩罚的是那些在没有正当伤病理由时让球员休战的球队。

:chart_increasing: 亚特兰大老鹰 (45-33)。 这支老鹰队还在继续翱翔!他们已经取得四连胜,且在过去20场比赛中赢下了18场,正努力锁定东部第五。老鹰本周将面临堪称最艰难的收官赛程(详见下文)。当老鹰正式将特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 交易至华盛顿奇才时,他们的战绩仅为18胜21负,这基本上宣告放弃了自2018年以来的建队方向。考虑到交易只换回了CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 和考里·基斯珀特 (Corey Kispert),这在球迷群体中是一个巨大的风险。但老鹰自文化变革以来表现出色,变得更加全面,防守也大幅提升。

交易后老鹰取得了27胜12负。交易前,他们的进攻排名联盟第18,防守第16。诚然,杨本赛季仅为老鹰出战了10场。但他离开后,球队转向了更符合奎因·斯奈德 (Quin Snyder) 偏好的风格。交易后,老鹰的进攻提升至第12,防守跃升至第7。这是一个戏剧性的转变,其中还包括将克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porziņģis) 送往金州勇士,换来乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 的交易。现在,老鹰可能是东部前四之外,其他球队最不想碰到的对手。

:chart_decreasing: 湖人 (50-28)。 湖人队的崩盘在情理之中。在东契奇拉伤腿筋的那场比赛中,他们被俄克拉荷马城雷霆狂胜43分。奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 也遭遇了腹斜肌伤势,预计将缺席四到六周。在可预见的未来失去里夫斯和东契奇后,人们的关注点已从“湖人是否会在季后赛成为黑马”转变为“41岁的勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 能在多大程度上阻止这支球队一路连败到底”。

洛杉矶在周日的比赛中输给了库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 领衔的达拉斯独行侠。如果不是常规赛最后一天还要对阵犹他爵士,人们甚至会怀疑湖人在十月之前还能否再赢一场。 东契奇正前往欧洲寻求关于腿筋伤势的第二意见或治疗方案。这真的能让他及时复出吗?距离季后赛开始还有不到两周,伤病专家杰夫·斯托茨 (Jeff Stotts) 指出,2级腿筋拉伤的平均康复时间为35天。

:chart_increasing: 波特兰开拓者 (40-38)。 开拓者目前已取得四连胜,且在过去10场中赢下8场。他们已经爬升到与洛杉矶快船争夺西部第八的位置,力求在附加赛中获得“双败淘汰制”的优势。波特兰经历了一个极其跌宕起伏的赛季,主教练在赛季第二天被联邦起诉,甚至球队也卖给了新老板汤姆·邓顿 (Tom Dundon)。开拓者本赛季经历了管理层停职、罚款以及海量的伤病。但随着球员回归健康,临时主帅蒂亚戈·斯普利特 (Tiago Splitter) 带领他们打出了一波漂亮的攻势。

防守专家图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 在这波连胜中化身得分好手。他场均贡献17.6分,投篮/三分/罚球命中率分别为56.1%/50.0%/85.7%。朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 和斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 组成了出色的后场搭档,两人合力投出了40%的三分命中率。多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 则成了两双与盖帽机器。开拓者实际上可能在正确的时机找回健康,并准备好迈出关键的一步。

:chart_decreasing: 明尼苏达森林狼 (46-32)。 森林狼在过去五场比赛中输掉了四场,形势看起来极其不乐观。爱德华兹从膝伤中回归并未能稳住局面。诚然,森林狼的所有失利都有客观原因。两次输给底特律活塞是因为两队都缺少核心后卫。输给费城76人时,爱德华兹在面对几乎全员出战的76人时表现糟糕。随后,森林狼在周日惨败给夏洛特黄蜂。爱德华兹因持续的膝盖疼痛缺席了那场比赛。这让明尼阿波利斯的任何人都无法对赛季末段感到乐观。

他们不太可能跌入附加赛,所以也许他们只需要让爱德华兹休息,确保他在季后赛首轮恢复状态?森林狼最终可能会对阵正处于巅峰状态的丹佛掘金。

:chart_decreasing: 比赛竞争性。 上周五,我们可能见证了NBA常规赛历史上最糟糕的一天。当晚共有八场比赛,尽可能地为周六和周一的NCAA男篮最终四强赛让路。当晚唯一一场分差在个位数的比赛是萨克拉门托国王117-113击败新奥尔良鹈鹕。分差次小的是奥兰多魔术128-117战胜独行侠的比赛,弗拉格在那场比赛中狂砍51分。但当晚的平均胜分差达到了惊人的24.4分。这是NBA历史上任何至少有八场比赛的日子里最大的平均胜分差。摆烂问题确实需要妥善解决了。


德里克·怀特和凯尔特人能否挡住尼克斯对东部二号种子的冲击? (David Butler II / Imagn Images)

未来一周:悬念所在

2025-26赛季常规赛还剩最后一周,一切都在向周日倒计时,届时所有30支球队都将参加最后的“收官大决战”,以确定最终排名。东部第一已经确定(祝贺活塞队!)。附加赛球队也已确定,10支乐透区球队正式出局。

以下是你在最后一周需要了解的所有信息。

东部 2-4 名排位

现状: 波士顿凯尔特人领先纽约尼克斯3个胜场,领先克利夫兰骑士4个胜场。

凯尔特人几乎已经锁定了东部第二。他们只需在最后四场比赛中赢下两场,其中一场对手就是尼克斯。纽约必须赢下那场比赛来缩小差距,同时夺取赛季系列赛的胜负关系(目前对阵波特兰是2胜1负,且分区战绩占优)。尼克斯仍在努力甩开骑士以保住第三,除非他们有什么“神机妙算”,认为次轮对阵底特律比对阵波士顿更有利。如果是那样,尼克斯可能会戏弄“篮球之神”并掉到第四。

  • 凯尔特人 (53-25) 剩余赛程: 对阵黄蜂、客战尼克斯、对阵鹈鹕、对阵魔术
  • 尼克斯 (50-28) 剩余赛程: 客战老鹰、对阵凯尔特人、对阵猛龙、对阵黄蜂
  • 骑士 (49-29) 剩余赛程: 客战灰熊、对阵老鹰、客战老鹰、对阵奇才

谁握有平局优势? 尼克斯目前对阵波士顿占优 (2-1),且还有一场交手,并在分区战绩这一平局决胜项上领先。纽约同样握有对阵克利夫兰的优势 (2-1)。

东部 5-10 名排位

现状: 老鹰领先费城2个胜场排名第五。费城周一与多伦多战绩持平并列第六,但握有优势(分区战绩)。多伦多领先夏洛特半个胜场排名第七。夏洛特领先奥兰多半个胜场排名第八。奥兰多领先迈阿密热火1个胜场排名第九。

这将是一场决定谁能直通季后赛、谁必须经历附加赛洗礼的终点冲刺。东部附加赛在历史上一直表现平平,但今年这四支球队都很有实力且看点十足。老鹰的收官赛程很艰难,而由于赛程轻松,六人组可能会缩小差距。但亚特兰大近两个月表现神勇,大概率能挺过来。多伦多至少得在对阵迈阿密的比赛中拿下一场,但他们应该处于冲击第六的好位置。

  • 老鹰 (45-33) 剩余赛程: 对阵尼克斯、客战骑士、对阵骑士、客战热火
  • 76人 (43-35) 剩余赛程: 客战马刺、客战火箭、客战步行者、对阵雄鹿
  • 猛龙 (43-35) 剩余赛程: 对阵热火、对阵热火、客战尼克斯、对阵篮网
  • 黄蜂 (43-36) 剩余赛程: 客战凯尔特人、对阵活塞、客战尼克斯
  • 魔术 (42-36) 剩余赛程: 对阵活塞、对阵森林狼、客战公卫、客战凯尔特人
  • 热火 (41-37) 剩余赛程: 客战猛龙、客战猛龙、客战奇才、对阵老鹰

谁握有平局优势? 约翰·霍林格 (John Hollinger) 对这六支球队之间可能出现的离奇排位情况做了极佳的分析。让我们尝试补充一些细节。

三支或更多球队战绩持平时: 分区冠军优先 → 相互战绩 → 分区内战绩(若在同一分区) → 联合会战绩 → 对阵季后赛球队战绩 → 净胜分

  • 亚特兰大: 对阵费城 4-0 | 对阵多伦多 0-4 | 对阵夏洛特 1-3 | 对阵奥兰多 4-0 | 对阵迈阿密 1-2(余1场)
  • 费城: 对阵亚特兰大 0-4 | 对阵多伦多 2-2 | 对阵夏洛特 2-1 | 对阵奥兰多 2-1 | 对阵迈阿密 1-2
  • 多伦多: 对阵亚特兰大 4-0 | 对阵费城 2-2 | 对阵夏洛特 2-2 | 对阵奥兰多 2-1 | 对阵迈阿密 2-0(余2场)
  • 夏洛特: 对阵亚特兰大 3-1 | 对阵费城 1-2 | 对阵多伦多 2-2 | 对阵奥兰多 3-1 | 对阵迈阿密 1-3
  • 奥兰多: 对阵亚特兰大 0-4 | 对阵费城 1-2 | 对阵多伦多 1-2 | 对阵夏洛特 1-3 | 对阵迈阿密 5-0
  • 迈阿密: 对阵亚特兰大 2-1(余1场) | 对阵费城 2-1 | 对阵多伦多 0-2(余2场) | 对阵夏洛特 3-1 | 对阵奥兰多 0-5

西部 1-2 名排位

现状: 雷霆领先圣安东尼奥马刺3个胜场,排名西部第一。

雷霆本周只需赢下两场,或者马刺输掉一场,即可锁定头号种子。他们应该能在前两场比赛中搞定这一切,然后轮休主力。这一悬念基本已经尘埃落定。

  • 雷霆 (62-16) 剩余赛程: 客战湖人、客战快船、客战掘金、对阵太阳
  • 马刺 (59-19) 剩余赛程: 对阵76人、对阵开拓者、对阵独行侠、对阵掘金

谁握有平局优势? 马刺凭借 4-1 的赛季系列赛战绩,对阵雷霆拥有平局优势。

西部 3-6 名排位

现状: 湖人和掘金在西部第三的位置上持平,但湖人握有优势。这使得掘金目前暂居第四。火箭落后丹佛1个胜场排名第四。森林狼落后休斯顿3个胜场排名第五。森林狼领先菲尼克斯太阳3个胜场排名第六,但我们暂且将太阳归入附加赛讨论区。森林狼只需赢下两场或太阳输掉一场,即可锁定前六席位。

湖人的伤病完全改变了这四支球队的博弈。现在每个人都应该想方设法在首轮对上湖人。掘金应该能爬上第三。湖人不会跌到第六,因为他们对森林狼拥有平局优势,所以他们最差也是第五。火箭可以冲到第三,但他们对阵掘金没有优势。森林狼只在对阵火箭时可能拥有优势。

  • 湖人 (50-28) 剩余赛程: 对阵雷霆、客战勇士、对阵太阳、对阵爵士
  • 掘金 (50-28) 剩余赛程: 对阵开拓者、对阵灰熊、对阵雷霆、客战马刺
  • 火箭 (49-29) 剩余赛程: 客战太阳、对阵76人、对阵森林狼、对阵灰熊
  • 森林狼 (46-32) 剩余赛程: 客战步行者、客战魔术、客战火箭、对阵鹈鹕

谁握有平局优势? 情况不像东部那么复杂,让我们拆解一下:

  • 湖人: 对阵掘金 2-1 | 对阵火箭 2-1 | 对阵森林狼 3-0
  • 掘金: 对阵湖人 1-2 | 对阵火箭 3-1 | 对阵森林狼 3-1
  • 火箭: 对阵湖人 1-2 | 对阵掘金 1-3 | 对阵森林狼 1-1(余1场)
  • 森林狼: 对阵湖人 0-3 | 对阵掘金 1-3 | 对阵火箭 1-1(余1场)

西部附加赛排位:

现状: 太阳领先开拓者和快船3个胜场,排名第七。快船和开拓者战绩持平并列第八,但快船目前对波特兰占优。勇士落后洛杉矶和波特兰3个胜场,排名第九。

太阳在第七的位置上应该很稳,且不太可能升至第六。勇士基本没可能提升排名,几乎锁定了西部第十。所以这主要取决于开拓者能否反超快船。

  • 太阳 (43-35) 剩余赛程: 对阵火箭、对阵独行侠、客战湖人、客战雷霆
  • 快船 (40-38) 剩余赛程: 对阵独行侠、对阵雷霆、客战开拓者、对阵勇士
  • 开拓者 (40-38) 剩余赛程: 客战掘金、客战马刺、对阵快船、对阵国王
  • 勇士 (36-42) 剩余赛程: 对阵国王、对阵湖人、客战国王、客战快船

谁握有平局优势? 太阳对阵开拓者(赛季 2-1)和快船(赛季 2-2,且将凭借分区战绩或联合会战绩胜出)均占优。快船目前在赛季系列赛中 2-1 领先开拓者,且还剩一场交手。如果快船输掉那场比赛,他们将因联合会战绩劣势而在平局决胜中输给开拓者。

摆烂大军——以及鹈鹕!

现状: 我们需要反看排名。在这一板块,我们将所有后十名的球队归为一类。

密尔沃基雄鹿将两次对阵布鲁克林篮网,因此他们需要努力摆烂才有机会追上芝加哥公牛。然而,芝加哥也要两次对阵华盛顿奇才,所以两队之间潜在的平局可能依然存在?这一组别中,本周印第安纳步行者与布鲁克林的对决可能会决定排名的重大变化。

  • 雄鹿 (31-47) 剩余赛程: 客战篮网、客战活塞、对阵篮网、客战76人
  • 公牛 (29-49) 剩余赛程: 客战奇才、客战奇才、对阵魔术、客战独行侠
  • 灰熊 (25-53) 剩余赛程: 对阵骑士、客战掘金、客战爵士、客战火箭
  • 独行侠 (25-53) 剩余赛程: 客战快船、客战太阳、客战马刺、对阵公牛
  • 鹈鹕 (25-54) 剩余赛程: 对阵爵士、客战凯尔特人、客战森林狼
  • 国王 (21-57) 剩余赛程: 客战勇士、对阵勇士、客战开拓者
  • 爵士 (21-58) 剩余赛程: 客战鹈鹕、对阵灰熊、客战湖人
  • 篮网 (19-59) 剩余赛程: 对阵雄鹿、对阵步行者、客战雄鹿、客战猛龙
  • 步行者 (18-60) 剩余赛程: 对阵森林狼、客战篮网、对阵76人、对阵活塞
  • 奇才 (17-61) 剩余赛程: 对阵公牛、对阵公牛、客战热火、对阵骑士

平局规则不适用于乐透签位的确定。NBA将通过抛硬币的方式在战绩持平的球队间决定顺位。

由生成式 AI 翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

点击查看原文:NBA’s final week of the season: Tanking, standings and everything else at stake

NBA’s final week of the season: Tanking, standings and everything else at stake

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We’re down to the last seven days of this season, and there is a ton to track. The Western and Eastern conference standings are all over the place. The tanking has been out of control, with almost one-third of the league trying to lose. And we have all kinds of squads going on big runs and horrible stretches at the worst times.

Today, we’ll give you everything to keep an eye on the rest of the regular season. We also have the extended version of the NBA Stock Report, a Monday staple in The Bounce. That’s our free NBA newsletter that you can sign up for and receive every day in your inbox.


NBA Stock Report Extended

:chart_increasing: Houston Rockets (49-29). Most of the Rockets’ six-game winning streak has come against an easy schedule. However, Houston has needed the wins, and it now has a chance at home-court advantage in the first round. The Rockets had been such a mess in end-of-game situations and couldn’t string together enough wins to keep pace with the Los Angeles Lakers (pre-injuries) and Denver Nuggets. So this is a welcome stretch for a team that might finally build some momentum heading into the postseason.

Alperen Şengün has been on a heater. He’s averaging 21.8 points in 31.5 minutes during this stretch on 57.6/50.0/72.7 shooting splits. More importantly, his playmaking has been elite. He’s averaging 6.6 assists, which may not seem super impressive. However, he’s only turning it over 1.3 times per game. That’s 40 assists and just eight turnovers in those six games. Pretty good for a playmaking big man whom the defense is swarming when he puts it on the ground. Amen Thompson has 33 assists and just six turnovers during this time as well. Ime Udoka has to love his playmakers taking care of the ball like this. They’ll need to do it in the postseason.

:chart_decreasing: The 65-game rule. Injuries to Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards and now Luka Dončić are putting a lot of pressure on the NBA’s 65-game threshold for awards. Adam Silver dismissed criticism of the rule, saying it’s having a great effect on stars playing in more games instead of sitting for load management. And it was really just affecting one case (Cunningham’s) after last month’s Board of Governors meeting. Now we have Edwards missing the cut because he came out after three minutes in the third game of the season with a hamstring injury. Dončić’s regular season is over at 64 games because of a hamstring injury. Cunningham has played in 61 games. Edwards will finish one game short because of the three-minute game.

What is this solving? These guys have real injuries this season. Edwards dealt with a hamstring injury and a knee injury that cost him time. Cunningham’s lung collapsed. Dončić has dealt with various leg and hamstring issues. And they won’t be eligible for awards because the NBA is doubling down on this rule instead of fixing it. Really, they should abolish the rule, like when they quickly realized the new composite ball in 2006 was horrible. The NBA got its broadcast money and doesn’t need this dumb rule. Players want to play. Punish the teams when they sit them out sans legitimate injuries.

:chart_increasing: Atlanta Hawks (45-33). These Hawks keep soaring! They’ve won four in a row and 18 of their last 20 games, as they try to secure the fifth seed in the East. Atlanta enters this week with arguably the toughest closing schedule (more about that below). The Hawks were 18-21 when they officially traded Trae Young to the Washington Wizards, essentially abandoning their direction since 2018. It was a major risk with their fan base because they only got CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert back in the deal. But the Hawks have been thriving since this change in culture, as they’ve become more versatile and a lot better defensively.

Atlanta is 27-12 since the trade. It was 18th in offense and 16th in defense before the trade. Granted, Young only played in 10 games for the Hawks this season. But once he was gone, they went a style more conducive to what Quin Snyder preferred. Since the trade, the Hawks have improved to 12th in offense and seventh in defense. That’s a dramatic turnaround, which also includes trading Kristaps Porziņģis to the Golden State Warriors in a deal that landed them Jonathan Kuminga. Now the Hawks might be the team outside of the top four in the East that teams want to play the least.

:chart_decreasing: Lakers (50-28)****. The Lakers have understandably fallen apart. They got smoked by 43 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the game Dončić injured his hamstring. Austin Reaves also injured his oblique and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Without Reaves and Dončić for the foreseeable future, the Lakers have gone from people wondering if they’ll be sneaky dangerous in the postseason to wondering how much 41-year-old LeBron James can protect this team from just losing out.

L.A. dropped Sunday’s game to Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks. If it weren’t for their game against the Utah Jazz on the last day of the regular season, it would be fair to wonder if the Lakers will win another game before October. Dončić is headed to Europe for another opinion/treatment option on his hamstring. Is that something that can realistically be done to get him back in time? The Lakers have a little less than two weeks before the playoffs begin, and injury expert Jeff Stotts has the average Grade 2 hamstring strain at 35 days.

:chart_increasing: Portland Trail Blazers (40-38). The Blazers have now won four straight and eight of their last 10. They have climbed up to battle the LA Clippers for the eighth spot in the West for a chance to make their Play-In experience a double-elimination affair. Portland has had such a ridiculous up-and-down season, with its coach being federally indicted on the second day of the season and even a sale of the franchise to a new owner. The Blazers have had front-office suspensions and fines and so many injuries throughout this campaign. But as they’ve become healthy, interim coach Tiago Splitter has helped them put together a nice run.

Defensive specialist Toumani Camara has turned into a good scorer in this run. He’s averaging 17.6 points on 56.1/50.0/85.7 shooting splits. Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson have been a great tandem at point guard, combining to hit 40 percent of their 3-pointers. Donovan Clingan has been a double-double and shot-blocking machine. The Blazers could actually find themselves healthy at the right time and ready to make the important step forward.

:chart_decreasing: Minnesota Timberwolves **(46-32)****.**The Wolves have lost four of their last five, and things could not look less encouraging. Edwards coming back from his knee injury didn’t right the ship. Granted, all of the Wolves’ losses are understandable. Their two losses to the Detroit Pistons came with both teams missing their star guards. Their loss to the Philadelphia 76ers came with Edwards playing pretty terribly against a mostly healthy Sixers squad. Then the Wolves’ loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday wasn’t that close. Edwards missed that game with some lingering knee pain. That can’t make anybody in Minneapolis feel good about the end of this season.

It’s unlikely they’re going to fall into the Play-In, so maybe they just need to rest Edwards and make sure he’s right for the first round? The Wolves will probably end up playing the Denver Nuggets, who are peaking at the right time.

:chart_decreasing: Competitive basketball. On Friday, we may have seen the worst full slate of NBA games in any regular season. There were eight games that night, clearing the way as much as possible for the men’s Final Four on Saturday and Monday. The only game that ended in a single-digit margin was the Sacramento Kings’ 117-113 win over the New Orleans Pelicans. The next closest was the Orlando Magic’s 128-117 victory over the Mavs with Flagg going for 51. But the average margin of victory that night was 24.4 points. It was the biggest margin of victory on any day with at least eight games in NBA history. Better fix that tanking issue properly.


Can Derrick White and the Celtics hold off the Knicks for the East’s No. 2 seed? (David Butler II / Imagn Images)

Week Ahead: What’s at stake

We have one week left in the 2025-26 regular season, and everything is counting down toward Sunday when all 30 teams are going to play in one final Gamemaggedon to settle the final standings. The No. 1 seed in the East is set (congrats to the Pistons!). The Play-In teams are also set, with 10 lottery teams officially eliminated.

This is everything else you’ll need to know to follow this final week.

East 2-4 seeding

Situation: The Boston Celtics are three games ahead of the New York Knicks and four games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Celtics have all but locked up the No. 2 seed in the East. They just need to win two of their final four games, and one of them includes the Knicks. New York must win that game to close the gap while also taking the tiebreaker for the season series (it’s currently 2-1 against Boston with a better division record). The Knicks are still fighting off the Cavs for the No. 3 seed, unless there’s some galaxy-brain scheming going on in which they believe a second-round series against Detroit is more advantageous than a second-round series against Boston. Maybe then the Knicks mess with “the basketball gods” to drop down to fourth.

  • Celtics (53-25) remaining games: versus Hornets, at Knicks, versus Pelicans, versus Magic
  • Knicks (50-28) remaining games: at Hawks, versus Celtics, versus Raptors, versus Hornets
  • Cavs (49-29) remaining games: at Grizzlies, versus Hawks, at Hawks, versus Wizards

Who holds the tiebreakers? The Knicks currently hold a tiebreaker over Boston (2-1) with one to play and have a better division record for the next tiebreaker. New York also owns the tiebreaker over Cleveland (2-1).

East 5-10 seeding

***Situation:*Atlanta is two games ahead of Philadelphia for fifth. Philadelphia enters Monday tied with Toronto for sixth but owns the tiebreaker (division record). Toronto is a half-game ahead of Charlotte for seventh. Charlotte is a half-game ahead of Orlando for eighth. Orlando is one game ahead of the Miami Heat for ninth.

This is going to be a photo finish to determine who gets into the playoffs and who has to go through the Play-In gauntlet. The East Play-In has historically been mediocre. But this year, all four teams are good and interesting. The Hawks have a tough finishing schedule, and the Sixers could close the gap thanks to an easy end to their season. But Atlanta has been awesome for about two months, so it can probably survive. Toronto has to take care of business at least one game against Miami, but it should be in a good position to put pressure on the sixth spot.

  • Hawks (45-33) remaining games: versus Knicks, at Cavs, versus Cavs, at Heat
  • 76ers (43-35) remaining games: at Spurs, at Rockets, at Pacers, versus Bucks
  • Raptors (43-35) remaining games: versus Heat, versus Heat, at Knicks, versus Nets
  • Hornets (43-36) remaining games: at Celtics, versus Pistons, at Knicks
  • Magic (42-36) remaining games: versus Pistons, versus Wolves, at Bulls, at Celtics
  • Heat (41-37) remaining games: at Raptors, at Raptors, at Wizards, versus Hawks

Who holds the tiebreakers? John Hollinger had the best breakdown of some ridiculous possibilities with these six. But let’s try to fill in some gaps here.

**Order of tiebreaker with three or more teams tied:**Division winner –> record among all teams against one another –> division record (if all in the same division) –> conference record –> better record among playoff eligible teams –> point differential

  • **Atlanta:**4-0 versus Philadelphia | 0-4 versus Toronto | 1-3 versus Charlotte | 4-0 versus Orlando | 1-2 versus Miami (one left)
  • Philadelphia: 0-4 versus Atlanta | 2-2 versus Toronto | 2-1 versus Charlotte | 2-1 versus Orlando | 1-2 versus Miami
  • Toronto: 4-0 versus Atlanta | 2-2 versus Philadelphia | 2-2 versus Charlotte | 2-1 versus Orlando | 2-0 versus Miami (two left)
  • Charlotte: 3-1 versus Atlanta | 1-2 versus Philadelphia | 2-2 versus Toronto | 3-1 versus Orlando | 1-3 versus Miami
  • Orlando: 0-4 versus Atlanta | 1-2 versus Philadelphia | 1-2 versus Toronto | 1-3 versus Charlotte | 5-0 versus Miami
  • Miami: 2-1 versus Atlanta (one left) | 2-1 versus Philadelphia | 0-2 versus Toronto (two left) | 3-1 versus Charlotte | 0-5 versus Orlando

West 1-2 seeding

***Situation:*The Thunder are three games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs for first in the West.

The Thunder just have to win two games or have the Spurs lose one game this week to clinch the top seed. They should be able to lock that up in the first two games and then rest their guys. This one should be all but done.

  • Thunder (62-16) remaining games: at Lakers, at Clippers, at Nuggets, versus Suns
  • Spurs (59-19) remaining games: versus Sixers, versus Blazers, versus Mavs, versus Nuggets

Who holds the tiebreakers? The Spurs hold the tiebreaker over the Thunder with a 4-1 season series record.

West 3-6 seeding

***Situation:*The Lakers and Nuggets are tied for third in the West, but the Lakers hold the tiebreaker. That pushes the Nuggets to fourth right now. The Rockets are one game behind Denver for fourth. Minnesota is three games behind Houston for fifth. Minnesota is three games ahead of the Phoenix Suns for sixth, but we’ll keep the Suns relegated to the Play-In section. Minnesota needs to win two games or have Phoenix lose one game to clinch a top-six spot.

The Lakers’ injuries have completely changed the way this quartet looks. Now everybody should be angling to match up with the Lakers in the first round. Denver should be able to climb into the third spot. The Lakers cannot drop to sixth because they own the tiebreaker over Minnesota, so the worst they can do is fifth. Houston can get up to third, but it doesn’t have the tiebreaker against Denver. The Wolves can only hold a tiebreaker against Houston.

  • Lakers (50-28) remaining games: versus Thunder, at Warriors, versus Suns, versus Jazz
  • Nuggets (50-28) remaining games: versus Blazers, versus Grizzlies, versus Thunder, at Spurs
  • Rockets (49-29) remaining games: at Suns, versus Sixers, versus Wolves, versus Grizzlies
  • Wolves (46-32) remaining games: at Pacers, at Magic, at Rockets, versus Pelicans

Who holds the tiebreakers? It’s not quite as complicated as the “Mid-6” in the East, but let’s break it down.

  • **Lakers:**2-1 versus Denver | 2-1 versus Houston | 3-0 versus Minnesota
  • Nuggets: 1-2 versus Lakers | 3-1 versus Houston | 3-1 versus Minnesota
  • Rockets: 1-2 versus Lakers | 1-3 versus Denver | 1-1 versus Minnesota (one left)
  • Wolves: 0-3 versus Lakers | 1-3 versus Denver | 1-1 versus Houston (one left)

Western Conference Play-In positioning:

Situation: The Suns have a three-game lead over the Blazers and Clippers for seventh. The Clippers and Blazers are tied for eighth, but the Clippers currently hold the tiebreaker over Portland. The Warriors are three games back of LA and Portland for ninth.

The Suns should be safe in the seventh spot and likely won’t move up to sixth. The Warriors aren’t likely to move up at all and are nearly locked into 10th in the West. So this really comes down to whether the Blazers can finish above the Clippers.

  • Suns (43-35) remaining games: versus Rockets, versus Mavs, at Lakers, at Thunder
  • Clippers (40-38) remaining games: versus Mavs, versus Thunder, at Blazers, versus Warriors
  • Blazers (40-38) remaining games: at Nuggets, at Spurs, versus Clippers, versus Kings
  • Warriors (36-42) remaining games: versus Kings, versus Lakers, at Kings, at Clippers

Who holds the tiebreakers? The Suns hold the tiebreaker over the Blazers (2-1 season series) and the Clippers (2-2 season series and would either win the division-record or conference-record tiebreaker). The Clippers have a 2-1 season series lead on the Blazers with one game to play. If they lose that game, they’ll lose the tiebreaker due to conference record.

Tanking — and the Pelicans!

***Situation:*We have to flip the standings for how we view this. We’ve lumped in all the bottom 10 teams for this section.

The Milwaukee Bucks play the Brooklyn Nets twice, so they’ll need to tank hard to have a chance to catch the Chicago Bulls. However, Chicago plays the Washington Wizards twice, so maybe this potential tie between them is still on the table? The biggest change/showdown that games may determine in this grouping is the game between the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn this week.

  • Bucks (31-47) remaining games: at Nets, at Pistons, versus Nets, at 76ers
  • Bulls (29-49) remaining games: at Wizards, at Wizards, versus Magic, at Mavs
  • Grizzlies (25-53) remaining games: versus Cavs, at Nuggets, at Jazz, at Rockets
  • Mavericks (25-53) remaining games: at Clippers, at Suns, at Spurs, versus Bulls
  • Pelicans (25-54) remaining games: versus Jazz, at Celtics, at Wolves
  • Kings (21-57) remaining games: at Warriors, versus Warriors, at Blazers
  • Jazz (21-58) remaining games: at Pelicans, versus Grizzlies, at Lakers
  • Nets (19-59) remaining games: versus Bucks, versus Pacers, at Bucks, at Raptors
  • Pacers (18-60) remaining games: versus Wolves, at Nets, versus 76ers, versus Pistons
  • Wizards (17-61) remaining games: versus Bulls, versus Bulls, at Heat, versus Cavs

Tiebreakers do not apply to lottery slots. The NBA flips a coin between the teams to decide it.

By Zach Harper, via The Athletic