By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-04-03 19:00:00
许多人曾预料圣安东尼奥马刺队会变强，但没人预见到他们会如此迅速地成为真正的争冠球队。
在常规赛仅剩几场比赛之际，圣安东尼奥正处于这样一个高度。一切可能向好发展的因素都如愿以偿，此时此刻，如果看到他们在六月捧起冠军奖杯，已不再令人感到意外。
那么，我们是如何走到这一步的？与马刺相关的一切一样，故事要从那位“外星人”说起。
文班亚马的历史级成长轨迹
在理想状态下，精英级别的进攻比精英级别的防守更具影响力。进攻方主导球场上的局势，而防守方只能据此做出反应。这并非巧合，世界最佳球员名单通常倾向于强力的得分手或组织者；对于 99.9% 的球员来说，说球场两端的地位同等重要是不准确的。
然而，就像他生活中的一切一样，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 是那仅有的 0.1%。他可能是 NBA 历史上唯一一位迫使对手必须针对其防守制定比赛计划的球员，防守端对他而言确实占据了比赛的一半——这甚至可能还低估了他的影响力。
本赛季当文班在场时，马刺的防守效率达到了惊人的 104.5，这比历史级的俄克拉荷马城雷霆队还要出色 2.5 分。尽管他今年的场均盖帽数“仅”为 3.1 次，低于新秀赛季（3.6 次）和二年级赛季（3.8 次），但这完全是因为对手终于意识到，试图在他那异形般的长臂上投篮是徒劳的。在他上场期间，各支球队在距离篮筐 4 英尺以内的出手比例仅为 26.7%，这在全联盟排名倒数第二，仅次于波士顿凯尔特人队的 24.7%。更重要的是，当文班在场时，对手在篮筐附近的命中率仅为 59.8%，与球队整体统计数据相比，这是全联盟唯一的低于 60% 的表现。
他真正做到了一人撑起一套防守体系。在下面的回合中，文班的存在吓得两名印第安纳步行者队球员不敢投篮，随后他封盖了帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)。
文班亚马在职业生涯结束时，可能会成为史上最具统治力的防守球员。
当他防守你时，想要完成出手几乎是不可能的。
pic.twitter.com/invXkPbOru— BGN Hoops (@ BGNHoops) 2026年3月22日
让文班伟大的不仅仅是他的臂展。相反，是臂展、敏捷性和积极性的结合，让他成为了独一无二的存在。文班像侧翼一样移动的能力给了他联盟历史上最大的容错空间，而他封盖每一次投篮的欲望意味着，好吧，每一个可能的投篮都会被封盖。
文班对达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 的这次防守回合……
pic.twitter.com/vIdTT0e2gD
— 50 Nuances
(@ 50NuancesDeNBA) 2026年3月17日
对于非文班球员来说，进攻和防守提供的潜在总价值比例可能是 60/40。然而，文班打破了这个天平，当其他人的上限只有 40 时，他仅在防守端就提供了 60 的价值。这确实类似于电子游戏，你可以突破生命值上限，尤其是考虑到他的进攻也开始达到精英水平。
与前两个赛季相比，文班的进攻在任何单一领域都没有实现巨大的飞跃：他今年并没有带着无法阻挡的勾手回归，也没有开始投出 45% 的三分命中率。相反，是他的决策能力、处理速度和力量得到了提升，他将新秀赛季更合理的出手选择与二年级的效率飞跃结合在了一起。文班在篮下的出手占比回到了 37%，三分线外仅为 29%（与第一年几乎相同），而这两项的转化率分别为 74% 和 35%（与第二年相似）。
然而，他今年的真实命中率达到了 61.6%——这是他首次在效率上超过中锋的联盟平均水平。文班优先选择成为一名终结者而非创造者，这体现在他场均 2.63 次的生涯最高扣篮数和生涯最低的三分出手率上。结果是，他年轻职业生涯中每 36 分钟的得分达到了远超以往的 29.8 分，高于去年的 26.3 分。
即便如此，文班最强大的进攻武器还是他为队友创造的空位机会。当他在场时，圣安东尼奥拥有 121.6 的进攻效率——今年只有丹佛掘金队超过了这个数字。他在场时马刺的投篮分布图是数据分析狂人的梦想：他们在篮下的出手比例为 36.1%（处于第 87 百分位），底角三分比例为 14%（第 98 百分位）。后一个数字比今年创造底角三分机会排名第一的球队还要高出整整一个百分点，实际上是 NBA 历史最高值。马刺还转化了其中 40.7% 的机会，比联盟平均水平高出 2%。通常我会认为这是不可持续的，因为防守球队通常无法控制对手的三分命中率，但文班创造的空位如此之大，以至于圣安东尼奥的转化率可能真的具有持久性。
看看文班现在的引力有多么疯狂
他一触球，三名防守者几乎瞬间向他收缩
但他现在的处理时间太快了，单手接球瞬间甩出，让防守失去平衡，极易受到传导球的打击 pic.twitter.com/79qlmcjJo3
— Point Made Basketball (@ pointmadebball) 2026年3月26日
文班的引力也延伸到了三分线。他目前的三分命中率为 34.8%，略低于平均水平，但他一旦手热就能连续命中三分的能力，迫使对方大个子必须在外线防守他，从而为其他人拉开了突破空间。这对于马刺的三头怪后场来说简直是天作之合，因为卡斯尔、福克斯和哈珀都是极其优秀的攻筐手。例如，在下面的片段中，文班的引力迫使巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 在外线防守，让哈珀得以突入禁区并在矮个防守者头上完成终结。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2026年4月2日
文班在场时马刺 +17.1 的净效率是本赛季所有球员中最高的，这证明了他已经可以说就是世界上最好的球员。在联盟历史上，只有少数球员在 22 岁赛季被认为达到了这个境界：詹姆斯、贾巴尔、魔术师、奥尼尔、邓肯、奥斯卡·罗伯特森和乔丹。文班正稳步迈向这些伟大的殿堂，但他需要经过季后赛的洗礼才能真正确立自己头号球星的地位。尽管如此，考虑到我们目前所见，如果他在几个月后成为无可争议的第一人，没人会感到惊讶。
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔的惊人飞跃
上个赛季我对斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 非常不看好。对于一名后卫来说，他的传球平平，至于他的投篮和效率，还是少说为妙。我当时认为他更像是一个马库斯·斯玛特式的、表现起伏不定的球员，而不是注定成为球星的人。
好吧，卡斯尔今年让我收回了前言，我对此感到无比欣慰。
他的真实命中率现在提升到了 57.4%（从 52.2% 升上来），基本达到了后卫的联盟平均水平。卡斯尔场均 13 次突破排名全联盟第 20 位，并且在这些尝试中保持了 48% 的稳健命中率。这位二年级生是给篮筐施压最出色的球员之一，他有 44% 的出手发生在距离篮筐 4 英尺以内（在后卫中处于第 93 百分位）。他在那里的命中率仍处于平均水平（63%），在球场大多数区域也是如此，但这相比去年仍是巨大的进步，而且卡斯尔的百分比受益于他在最高效区域的大量出手。
更重要的是，卡斯尔得分的方式发生了变化。他效率的飞跃主要归功于他磨练出的大量动作，而且卡斯尔现在更擅长利用他在实战中的运动能力。他是联盟中最擅长利用爆发力、力量和冲击力突入篮下并在必要时顶着接触完成终结的球员之一。卡斯尔卓越的身体控制力让他能够瞬间改变速度和方向，大多数防守者无法做出足够快的反应和回防来跟上他。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2026年3月31日
即便得分有所进步，卡斯尔今年最大的飞跃还是他的组织能力。他的助攻率从去年的 23%（第 74 百分位）飙升至现在的 33.9%（第 99 百分位），使他场均能送出 7.3 次助攻——位列联盟前十。卡斯尔学会了如何阅读防守并耐心地等待对手做出动作后再寻找破绽，他利用自己的冲筐压力为外线空位射手分球。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2026年4月1日
卡斯尔也是一名出色的空接传球手。他不仅仅是靠文班吃饭：科内特也同样从他的传球中受益。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2026年3月30日
卡斯尔也是联盟最高效的传球手之一。他在助攻创造得分（19.3 分）方面排名前十，在潜在助攻方面排名前 15，但在场均传球次数上却排在 30 名开外。换句话说，数据暗示如果给予机会，卡斯尔有能力成为一名更加“持球大核”型的后卫，但目前阻碍他的一点是失误率：他的助攻失误比为 2.25:1，同时在所有个人回合中失误率高达 15.9%（处于第 7 百分位）。
除此之外，卡斯尔目前充其量仍是一名不稳定的射手。他今年的三分命中率为 32.3%（高于去年的 28.5%），虽然他在三月份投出了超过 40% 的命中率，但整体表现表明他仍是一名低于平均水平的射手——尤其是作为一名后卫。尽管如此，得分、传球和全明星防守级别的双向能力结合，使卡斯尔现在成为了一名联盟前 40、准全明星级别的球员，而且我已经认为他是马刺队的二号人物，并有潜力在不久的将来入选最佳阵容。卡斯尔是否能达到那样的高度并证明自己有能力担任首席持球手还有待观察，但考虑到圣安东尼奥还有一位更优秀的后卫新秀在待命，这可能已经不重要了。
X因素：一名新秀？
篮球之神似乎有一个天选之子，那就是马刺。在摆烂赛季后幸运抽中文班是一回事，但在一个选秀大年里以第 8 好的概率抽中榜眼签则是另一种级别的偏爱。
迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的表现名副其实。从第一天起，他就是联盟中最灵巧的突破手和终结者之一，并且此后一直在进步。他的许多底层数据与本赛季的卡斯尔不相上下，甚至更胜一筹，两人都是突破优先且投篮不稳定的后卫。
哈珀在篮下的出手比例高达 50%（在后卫中处于第 98 百分位），命中率为 63%（第 50 百分位），同时他在三分线内的所有其他区域都极具杀伤力。这位新秀的两分球命中率达到了惊人的 56.5%，在他所在位置中排名第 86 百分位。哈珀场均 8.4 次突破已经高于联盟平均水平，如果他打首发时间，这个数字轻松能进前 20。更令人印象深刻的是，他在这些回合中 55.3% 的转化率在今年全联盟所有突破次数超过 500 次的球员中排名第 12。
看比赛录像很容易明白原因。哈珀拥有联盟顶级的脚步，即使在收球后也能过掉防守者——非常有马努和哈基姆的神韵。
新秀不该有这样的脚步表现
pic.twitter.com/9U1dqFmc2F
— ALL NBA Podcast (@ ALLCITY_NBA) 2026年3月31日
哈珀脱颖而出的另一项技能是他的决策和控球。这位新秀 10.5% 的失误率在所有后卫中处于第 77 百分位，他 2.8:1 的稳健助攻失误比远超凯德、哈登和亚历山大职业生涯前几年的表现。
不过，和卡斯尔一样，哈珀最大的弱点是远投不稳定。他今年的三分命中率仅为 32.1%，虽然三月份达到了 53.7%，但哈珀的过往经历表明，他最近的表现只是一段不可持续的手感火热期。即使他的跳投永远无法成为武器，我仍然敢打赌哈珀会凭借顶级的两分球效率、可靠的组织和扎实的防守成为最佳阵容级别的球员。他已经足够优秀，可以在马刺潜在的季后赛征程中扮演关键角色，而且哈珀最早可能在下个赛季就成为球队的二号人物。如果跳投真的练出来了，他似乎注定会在未来多年里稳居联盟前 15 球员之列。
福克斯与角色球员
福克斯： 迪阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在许多方面是卡斯尔和哈珀的成熟版。他的场均突破数（12 次）也排在联盟前 30，突破投篮命中率（55.3%）与哈珀持平，他们分别排在自 1 月 1 日以来突破命中率的第一和第二位。马刺的深度让福克斯得以减负，他 27.1% 的使用率是职业生涯第二低。反过来，这帮助他打出了职业生涯第二高的真实命中率（58.1%），尽管他的三分球依然起伏不定（33.7%）。尽管如此，即使在哈珀和卡斯尔崛起的情况下，福克斯仍是这支球队至关重要的一部分，因为他带来了稳定的存在感，并且是马刺在关键时刻首选的外线进攻点。为了给哈珀腾空间，他可能会在未来几年被交易，但目前，福克斯仍是保持全明星水准的关键一环。
侧翼射手群： 德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell)、朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)、哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson) 是提升圣安东尼奥上限的辅助力量。这四人都接受了自己的角色，他们提供的空间让文班和后卫的突破变得更加轻松。他们四人场均以 38.5% 的命中率合力投进 20.9 个三分球，帮助缓解了后卫线的投篮隐忧。这四名侧翼也都是合格的防守者，并具备一定的持球突破能力，这意味着马刺在攻防两端都没有明显的短板。
科内特： 作为本赛季最被低估的球员之一，卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 在保持马刺非文班时间的竞争力方面发挥了至关重要作用。记住，“外星人”场均上场 29 分钟，总计仅出战了 1784 分钟——不到球队今年总分钟数的 50%。当科内特在场而文班不在时，马刺仍保持着 114.4 的稳健防守效率（第 64 百分位）和 +3.6 的净效率，进攻效率为 118.0。他是圣安东尼奥能把文班留给季后赛的主要原因，并将继续发挥重要作用。
结论
马刺是名副其实的争冠球队，这点毋庸置疑。文班本身就是历史级的防守体系，而且进攻端也达到了精英级别。三名后卫之间的磨合也比预想中更加顺畅，这归功于他们的冲筐压力与文班在内线、侧翼在底角所提供的空间相结合。
尽管如此，圣安东尼奥缺乏季后赛经验是一个合理的担忧，同时还缺少一个精英级的二号得分点。近年的冠军球队阵容中都拥有第二位最佳阵容级别的球员，虽然卡斯尔和福克斯（或许还有哈珀）在任何特定夜晚都能达到那个高度，但今年他们都没能持续保持在那个水平。
目前，我会认为马刺在争冠梯队中排在雷霆之后，但他们是明确的二号种子，也是卫冕冠军最大的威胁。圣安东尼奥让我想起了 2024 年那支在次轮出局的分区第一雷霆队，而不是 2025 年的冠军，但有了文班在阵，这支球队没有任何上限。
马刺注定会在不久的将来赢得总冠军。唯一剩下的问题是，何时。
本周，请阅读 Mateo 关于 哈珀新秀赛季 的文章！他在深入挖掘数据方面做得非常出色，展示了为什么我们都如此看好哈珀的潜力。
感谢阅读！
所有数据由 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 提供。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: The Spurs have arrived, and they’re coming for it all
Around the NBA: The Spurs have arrived, and they’re coming for it all
Many expected the Spurs to be good, but no one saw them becoming legitimate title contenders.
That’s exactly where San Antonio finds themself with just a handful of games left in the season. Everything that could have gone right, has gone right, and at this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them crowned champs in June.
So, how did we get here? As with everything Spurs-related, it starts with the Alien.
Wemby’s all-time trajectory
In a vacuum, elite offense is more impactful than elite defense. Offenses dictate what’s happening on the court, and the defense can only react accordingly. It’s not a coincidence that a list of the best players in the world generally leans toward potent scorers/playmakers, and for 99.9% of players, it’s inaccurate to say that the two sides of the court hold equal importance.
Like everything in his life, though, Wemby is that lone 0.1%. He might be the only player in NBA history who forces opponents to game plan for his defense, and that side of the court truly represents half the game for him — which might still be underselling it.
With Wemby on the court this season, the Spurs have an astonishing 104.5 defensive rating, which is 2.5 points better than the historically great Thunder. His blocks are actually down to “just” 3.1 this year compared to his rookie (3.6) and sophomore seasons (3.8), but that’s entirely due to opponents finally realizing that it’s futile to try shooting over his xenomorph-sized arms. During his minutes, teams are attempting just 26.7% of their shots within 4 feet of the basket, which would be the second-lowest percentage league-wide, only behind Boston at 24.7%. More importantly, opponents are shooting just 59.8% at the rim with Wemby on the floor, which would be the only sub-60% mark in the league in comparison to team-wide stats.
He’s truly a one-man defense. In the play below, Wemby’s presence spooked two Pacers from shooting before stuffing Siakam.
Wemby will probably go down as the most dominant defensive player ever when his career is over.
It’s damn near impossible to get a shot off when he’s guarding you.
pic.twitter.com/invXkPbOru— BGN Hoops (@ BGNHoops) March 22, 2026
What makes Wemby great isn’t just his length. Rather, it’s his combination of length, agility, and motor that truly makes him one of one. Wemby’s ability to move like a wing gives him the greatest margin for error in league history, and his desire to block every shot means that, well, every possible shot will be blocked.
Cette possession défensive de Wemby sur Darius Garland…
— 50 Nuances
For players not named Wemby, the total potential value provided on offense and defense might lean 60/40 towards offense. However, Wemby breaks that scale and provides a value of 60 on defense alone, when everyone else is maxed at 40. It’s truly akin to a video game where you can exceed the health limits, especially considering that his offense is starting to reach elite levels too.
Compared to his first two seasons, Wemby’s offensive game hasn’t taken a massive leap in any one area: he didn’t come into the year with an unstoppable skyhook or start shooting 45% from deep. Rather, it’s his decision-making, processing speed, and strength that have improved, and he’s combined the friendlier shot diet from his rookie year with the efficiency jump from his sophomore campaign. Wemby’s back to attempting 37% of his shots around the basket and just 29% from deep (near identical with his first year) while converting on 74% and 35% of those attempts (similar to his second year).
Yet, his true shooting is up to 61.6% this year — the first time he’s been above league-average in efficiency among centres. Wemby has prioritized being a play finisher instead of a creator, highlighted by a career-high 2.63 dunks per game and a career-low in three-point rate. As a result, he’s averaging by far the most points per 36 minutes of his young career with 29.8, up from 26.3 last year.
Even so, Wemby’s greatest offensive weapon is the open shots he creates for his teammates. With the Alien on the court, San Antonio has a 121.6 offensive rating — a number only eclipsed by Denver this year. The Spurs’ shot chart in his minutes is an analytics nerd’s dream: they attempt 36.1% of their shots at the rim (87th percentile) and 14% from corner threes (98th). That latter number is a full percentage more than the #1 team in generating corner threes this year and is actually the highest number in NBA history. The Spurs are also converting on 40.7% of those attempts, which is 2% above the league average. I’d usually consider that to be unsustainable since opposing teams usually have little control over opponent three-point percentages, but Wemby creates such open looks that San Antonio’s conversion rate might actually have staying power.
Look at how insane Wemby’s gravity is now
He touched the ball and literally three defenders collapse onto him
But his processing time is so quick now that he catches it with one handed and instantly rifles it out, leaving the defense unbalanced and susceptible to some swings pic.twitter.com/79qlmcjJo3
— Point Made Basketball (@ pointmadebball) March 26, 2026
Wemby’s gravity extends out to three as well. He’s currently making a sub-par 34.8% from deep, but his ability to get hot and hit a flurry of triples forces opposing big men to guard him on the perimeter, opening up driving lanes for others. That’s a match made in heaven for the Spurs’ three-headed backcourt monster, as Castle, Fox, and Harper are all excellent slashers. For example, Wemby’s gravity forces Bam to guard on the perimeter in the clip below, allowing Harper to attack and finish over a smaller defender.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) April 2, 2026
The Spurs’ +17.1 net rating with Wemby on the court is the highest number amongst all players this season, proving that he’s arguably the best player in the world already. Throughout league history, only a handful of players were considered to be in that realm during their age-22 seasons: LeBron, Kareem, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Oscar, and Jordan. Wemby is well on his way to joining that pantheon of greats, but he’ll need to go through the crucible of the playoffs to truly establish himself as the top dog. Still, given what we’ve seen so far, no one should be surprised if he’s the undisputed #1 in a few months.
Castle’s stunning leap
I was extremely down on Castle last season. His passing was just meh for a guard, and the less said about his shooting and efficiency, the better. I viewed him as more of a Marcus Smart trick or treat type player rather than one destined for stardom.
Well, Castle’s made me eat crow this year, and I couldn’t be happier.
He’s now up to 57.4% true shooting (from 52.2), right around the league average for guards. Castle’s 13 drives per game rank 20th league-wide, and he’s scoring on a robust 48% on those attempts. The sophomore is among the very best at pressuring the rim, with 44% of his shots coming within 4 feet of the basket (93rd percentile among guards). He still shoots an average percentage from there (63%) and most areas of the court, but that’s still a huge improvement from last year, and Castle’s percentages have been aided by the fact that he attempts so many shots in the most efficient area of the court.
More importantly, the way Castle scores has changed. His jump in efficiency is mostly attributed to a plethora of moves he’s refined, and Castle is much better at utilizing his functional athleticism now. He’s one of the very best in the league at using explosiveness, strength, and power to get to the rim and finish through contact if needed. Castle’s exceptional body control allows him to change speeds and directions in an instant, with most defenders unable to react and recover quickly enough to keep up.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 31, 2026
Even with his scoring improvements, the biggest leap Castle’s made this year has been his playmaking. He went from a 23% assist percentage last year (74th percentile) to 33.9% now (99th), resulting in him averaging 7.3 assists per game — a top 10 mark league-wide. Castle has learned how to read defenses and patiently wait for opponents to commit before finding an opening, and he utilizes his rim pressure to kick out to open shooters.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) April 1, 2026
Castle is a great lob thrower, too. He’s not just dining off of Wemby, either: Kornet has benefited just as much from his passes.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2026
Castle is one of the league’s most efficient passers as well. He’s top 10 in points created from assists (19.3) and top 15 in potential assists, but outside the top 30 in passes made per game. In other words, the numbers imply that Castle might be capable of becoming more of a heliocentric guard if given the opportunity, but the one area that holds him back is his turnover rate: he has a 2.25 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and is also turning the ball over on 15.9% of all individual possessions (7th percentile).
On top of that, Castle is still a questionable shooter at best. He’s making 32.3% of his triples this year (up from 28.5% last year), and while he made over 40% of them in March, the overall body of work suggests that he’s still a below-average shooter — especially for a guard. Still, his combination of scoring, passing, and All-defense level of two-way ability makes Castle a top-40, borderline All-Star now, and I already consider him the second-best player on the Spurs with the potential to make an All-NBA team in the near future. Whether or not Castle reaches those heights and proves himself capable as a lead ballhandler remains to be seen, but it might be a moot point considering that San Antonio has an even better guard prospect lying in wait.
The X-Factor: A rookie?
The basketball gods have a chosen son, and it’s the Spurs. To luck into Wemby after a tanking season is one thing, but getting the second pick with the 8th-best odds in a loaded draft is a whole new level of favoritism.
Harper has come as advertised. He was one of the league’s craftiest drivers and finishers from day one, and has only improved since. Many of his underlying numbers are comparable, if not better, than Castle’s this season, with both being drive-first guards with questionable shooting.
Harper is attempting 50% of his shots at the rim (98th percentile for a guard) and making 63% of those attempts (50th), while being lethal in all other areas inside the arc. The rookie is converting on a mind-blowing 56.5% of his twos, which ranks in the 86th percentile for his position. Harper’s 8.4 drives per game is already above average league-wide, and that number would easily be in the top 20 if he played starter minutes. More impressively, his 55.3% conversion rate on such possessions is 12th league-wide among all players with 500 or more drives this year.
Looking at the tape, it’s easy to see why. Harper has some of the best footwork in the league, and he’s able to get past defenders even after picking up his dribble — very Manu and Hakeem-esque.
Rookies aren’t supposed to be moving like this
— ALL NBA Podcast (@ ALLCITY_NBA) March 31, 2026
Another skill that separates Harper is his decision-making and ball-handling. The rookie’s 10.5% turnover rate is in the 77th percentile for all guards, and he has a robust 2.8 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio that’s well ahead of players such as Cade, Harden, and Shai in their first few years in the league.
Like Castle, though, Harper’s biggest weakness is his inconsistent long-range shooting. He’s made just 32.1% of his triples this year, and while that number was 53.7% in March, Harper’s history suggests that his recent form is an unsustainable hot stretch. Even if his jumper never becomes a weapon, I would still bet on Harper becoming an All-NBA player through his combination of elite two-point efficiency, reliable playmaking, and solid defense. He’s already good enough to play a crucial role in a potential Spurs run, and Harper could be the team’s second-best player as soon as next season. If the jumper does develop, he seems like a virtual lock to be a top-15 player in the league for years to come.
Fox and the role players
Fox: Fox is the more mature version of Castle and Harper in many ways. He’s also top-30 in drives per game (12) and is tied with Harper in field goal percentage on drives (55.3%), and they’re ranked first and second, respectively, in drive FG% since January 1st. The Spurs’ depth has allowed Fox to scale back, as his 27.1% usage is the second-lowest rate of his career. Inversely, that has helped him record the second-highest true shooting percentage of his career (58.1%), although his 3-point shooting remains hit or miss (33.7%). Still, Fox is a vital part of this team even with the emergence of Harper and Castle, as he brings a stable presence and is the Spurs’ go-to perimeter option in crunch time. He could be moved in the next few years to make room for Harper, but for now, Fox remains a crucial piece who’s still playing at an All-Star level.
The wing shooters: Vassell, Champagnie, Barnes, and Johnson are the support pieces that elevate San Antonio’s ceiling. The four of them have all bought into their roles, and the spacing they provide makes life easy for Wemby and the guards on drives. They’re making a combined 38.5% from deep on 20.9 attempts a game, helping mitigate some of the shooting concerns of the guards. All four wings are also adequate defenders with some off-the-dribble game, which means that the Spurs don’t have a single liability on either end of the court.
Kornet: One of the more underappreciated players this season, Kornet has been vital in keeping the Spurs competitive in the non-Wemby minutes. Remember, the Alien is averaging 29 minutes per game and has logged just 1784 total minutes — less than 50% of the team’s total minutes this year. With Kornet on and Wemby off, the Spurs still have a solid 114.4 defensive rating (64th percentile) and a +3.6 net rating with a 118.0 offense. He’s the main reason why San Antonio can afford to save Wemby for the playoffs, and will continue to play a vital role moving forward.
Conclusion
The Spurs are a bonafide title contender, full stop. Wemby is an all-time defense unto himself, and the offense has been elite, too. The fit between the three guards has also been more seamless than expected due to the combination of their rim pressure with the spacing provided by Wemby in the middle and the wings in the corners.
Still, San Antonio’s lack of playoff experience is a reasonable concern, along with the absence of an elite #2 option. Recent champions all had a second All-NBA-calibre player on the roster, and while Castle and Fox (and perhaps Harper) can reach those heights on any given night, none of them have consistently played at that level this year.
For now, I’d consider the Spurs to be beneath OKC in the contender tiers, but they’re the clear #2 and the biggest threat to the defending champs. San Antonio reminds me more of the 2024 one-seed Thunder that lost in the second round than the 2025 champs, but with Wemby on their side, there is no ceiling high enough for this team.
The Spurs are fated to win a title in the near future. The only question that remains is when.
This week, please check out Mateo’s article on Harper’s rookie season! He does a great job of diving even deeper into the numbers and shows just why we’re all so high on Harper’s potential.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock