By Fred Katz | The Athletic, 2026-03-31 09:30:49
为NBA奖项投票会产生一种特殊的焦虑感。
你可能对选票的某一部分充满信心。你可能深知谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 就是你心目中的最有价值球员（MVP），或者维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 就是你心目中的年度最佳防守球员。但是，你还必须填满选票的其余部分，而这并不总是那么简单。
在某些情况下，你可能花了一整个赛季观看比赛、研究统计数据并咨询NBA智囊团的意见，但最终依然感到困惑。竞争实在太激烈了，或者变量实在太模糊。你大可以闭上眼睛随便选一个候选人，并对自己的投票感到同样笃定。上赛季的情况便是如此，例如在吉尔杰斯-亚历山大与尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 之间那场史诗级的MVP之争中。
现在，每年的这个时候又到了。我们这些投票者正在做准备。随着常规赛接近尾声，以下是令我最感到纠结的奖项：
MVP第五名
MVP的前四名是显而易见的，尽管许多人的排名顺序会有所不同。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大是MVP的热门人选，这也是理所应当的。在上一赛季获得该奖项后，他在2025-26赛季的表现可以说更胜一筹。
不要忽视他在周一晚上的比赛前，两分球命中率超过了60%。作为一名高使用率的后卫，这简直不可思议。
我可能会将文班亚马在选票上的位置排得比平均水平低一些，这主要是出于出场时间的考虑。累积产出很重要，而文班亚马的出场时间比吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、约基奇或卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 少了400到500分钟。
但随后，困惑随之而来。我该把谁放在第五位？
这个位置本可以属于底特律活塞队的凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)，但这位控球后卫因肺部塌陷（气胸）缺阵，且由于未能达到规定的65场出赛门槛，很可能失去评选季后奖项的资格。因此，我们剩下的候选人都有各自的瑕疵。
从某些方面来看，杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 扛起了令人惊喜的波士顿凯尔特人队。但在另一方面，数据并不支持这一点。本赛季当布朗不在场时，波士顿是一支统治级的球队，而当他在场时，球队仅仅是表现出色。克利夫兰骑士队的多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 在赛季大部分时间里都处于得分狂热状态，但最近表现有所下滑——而且他的骑士队表现未达预期，以至于他们在赛季中期重组了核心阵容。明尼苏达森林狼队的安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 勉强能达到出赛资格，但他偶尔也会陷入森林狼队那种不稳定的状态中。洛杉矶快船队的科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 也许打出了这群人中最好的个人赛季，但他的球队仅排在第八位，而且他的球队正处于对其涉嫌行为的调查之中。
如果没有65场规则，坎宁安将是直觉之选。但现在看来，必须寻找另一个方向。
年度最佳第六人
如果不是因为伤病，这本该是替补大个子的赛季。终于，在多年来由“微波炉型”得分手主宰最佳第六人奖项后，这种刻板印象即将被打破。
艾赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 是NBA最好的板凳防守者，如果他打得够多，本有理由获奖。但斯图尔特一直饱受伤病困扰。随后，他因在一次冲突中离开替补席而被禁赛七场。紧接着，又一次伤病袭来。
根据 Second Spectrum 的数据，当斯图尔特作为最近的防守者时，对手在扣篮和上篮时的命中率仅为43%。如果他符合评选资格，这个百分比不仅将领跑全联盟，还将是 Second Spectrum 自2013-14赛季开始追踪数据以来，任何球员的最低纪录。底特律活塞队是一群硬汉，而斯图尔特即使是替补出场，也起到了带头作用。但尽管65场规则不适用于年度最佳第六人，他的出场次数也不足以支撑他在选票上占据一席之地。
其他中锋也可以在特定领域竞争最佳第六人。史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams) 和米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 是联盟中最顶尖的两名篮板手。休斯顿火箭队和纽约尼克斯队的进攻都依赖于他们的二次进攻机会。但亚当斯扭伤了脚踝，罗宾逊整个赛季都在轮休计划中。他们两人的总出场时间仅相当于其他主要第六人候选人的个人出场时间。
因此，我们不会看到一份全是中锋的最佳第六人选票，尽管森林狼队的纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 仍然是一名候选人。
很有可能，我的选票将在里德和其他两人之间产生：迈阿密热火队的小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez) 和圣安东尼奥马刺队的凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)。
哈克斯本赛季在一定程度上激活了迈阿密。热火队想要打快；而当哈克斯在场时，他们确实能提速。他是一名突破手、进攻者和球权组织者。但他的跳投有时会失准，而约翰逊则不同，他一整年都是一名令人印象深刻的得分手。他60%的有效投篮命中率使他成为这三人中最有效率的一员——远高于哈克斯，甚至高于三分射手里德。
这三人都为各自的球队提供了帮助。但只有一个人能赢得这个奖项。
最佳阵容第三阵
与之前两名后卫、两名前锋和一名中锋的格式相比，现在最佳阵容（All-NBA）不再区分位置，这使得相关的讨论变得索然无味。直到不久前，你还可以列举几名前锋，然后争论谁该排在名单的第五、第六和第七位。对后卫也可以这样做。现在，要确定最佳阵容选票的底部位置，需要列出一长串铁定入选的成员。
因此，假设那些有望达标的人最终确实达标，以下是我的13个锁定名额（排名不分先后）：东契奇、吉尔杰斯-亚历山大、约基奇、文班亚马、米切尔、布朗、爱德华兹、伦纳德、泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)、杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)、凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)、杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 和贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)。
还剩两个位置。这里的候选人类型各异。
一方面是数据累积型球员。波特兰开拓者队的德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 就属于这一类。德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 支撑起了表现好于预期的菲尼克斯太阳队的进攻。詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 不断为队友创造空位，并在克利夫兰展现了极佳的射程。阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Şengün) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 则是场均20分两双的常客。
但也有一些人的表现比他们的基础数据所暗示的要好。
如果雷霆队最终取得NBA第一的战绩，是否值得再给他们一个名额？如果是这样，本该出现在任何人年度最佳防守球员选票上的切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 可能会入选。杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 也有理由占据最后的名额之一。我们也不能漏掉德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)，尽管他的投篮数据并不理想，但他本赛季是联盟最好的外线防守者，作为一名控卫却能以某种方式保护篮筐，并且是波士顿最顶尖的球权串联者。
年度最佳教练第二和第三名
我最确定的投票就是年度最佳教练。我很难想象除了波士顿的乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 之外还会选谁——不仅因为凯尔特人队令人震惊地排在东部第二，还因为他们达到这一高度的方式。这支球队以一种非同寻常的方式崇尚数据分析。看着吧：到了下个赛季，其他球队会开始模仿凯尔特人队的部分理念，尤其是他们对进攻篮板的执着，他们冲抢篮板的热情比任何人都高。而且他们冲抢的角度也非常独特。
但选票的其余部分让我感到不确定。
年度最佳教练对我来说通常是一个困难的选择，因为外界能获取的相关信息最少。教练工作中最有价值的部分不是暂停的使用或轮换模式，而是我们无法看到的管理人的艺术。此外，本赛季的候选人阵容非常强大。
J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff) 带领活塞队实现了飞跃，从他到来前那个赛季遭遇28连败的队伍，到上赛季的44胜，再到2025-26赛季有望冲击60胜。从一支中游季后赛球队跃升为顶级强队是最难实现的跨越。比克斯塔夫帮助活塞队做到了这一点，同时培养了一种坚韧的球队特质。
从某些方面来看，马刺队的米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 处境很轻松。任何人都想执教文班亚马。但在另一方面，他的工作并不简单。圣安东尼奥的“三控卫”局面本该让轮换变得拥挤，相反，米奇·约翰逊将其转化为了优势。他让凯尔登·约翰逊等板凳球员全身心投入。他也不怕让老将坐冷板凳，比如哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)，他赛季初表现火热，但在下半程表现疲软。马刺队的进度超前，正朝着60胜以上的目标迈进。而且他是作为接替格雷格·波波维奇 (Gregg Popovich) 的人做到这一点的，这绝非易事。
历史规律表明，马祖拉、比克斯塔夫和米奇·约翰逊应该是选票上的三个名字。自2000年以来，每一位年度最佳教练获得者都来自50胜球队或前四种子球队。
然而，菜鸟主帅乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott) 在这里也有很强的说服力。随着奥特的加入，太阳队彻底改变了球队文化。太阳队现在是一支身体对抗强硬、坚韧不拔、痴迷于赢得每一个回合争夺的球队。多伦多猛龙队的达科·拉亚科维奇 (Darko Rajaković) 也值得称赞，他在主力中锋缺阵大半个赛季的情况下，打造出了一支防守前十的球队。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The NBA award ballots that are causing me the most stress
The NBA award ballots that are causing me the most stress
Voting for NBA awards produces a special type of anxiety.
You might feel confident in one part of the ballot. You might know that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is your Most Valuable Player or that Victor Wembanyama is your Defensive Player of the Year. But then, you have to fill out the rest of the list, which isn’t always so simple.
In some cases, you may spend a season watching games, studying statistics and picking the brains of the NBA’s intelligentsia, yet still come away perplexed. A race is too close. Or the variables are too unknown. You could close your eyes, pick one candidate and feel just as assured in your vote. Such was the case last season, for example, in the historic MVP race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić.
Now, it’s that time of year again. We voters are prepping. Here are the awards I am stressing the most about as the regular season comes to a close:
Fifth place for MVP
The top four for MVP are obvious, even if the order will deviate for many. Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP favorite, and rightfully so. After winning the award last season, he’s arguably been even better in 2025-26.
Don’t overlook that he was shooting better than 60 percent on 2-pointers heading into Monday night’s action. As a high-usage guard. That doesn’t happen.
I will likely place Wembanyama lower on my ballot than the average voter does, mostly because of playing time. Aggregate production matters, and Wembanyama has played 400 to 500 fewer minutes than Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić or Luka Dončić have.
But then, the bewilderment arrives. What should I do with fifth place?
This spot could have belonged to the Detroit Pistons’ Cade Cunningham, but the point guard is out with a collapsed lung and will likely become ineligible for postseason awards, falling short of the required 65 games played. And so, we’re left with flawed candidates.
In some ways, Jaylen Brown has carried the surprise Boston Celtics. In other ways, the numbers don’t back that up. Boston has been a dominant team with Brown off the court this season and a mere good one when he’s there. The Cleveland Cavaliers’ Donovan Mitchell was on a scoring binge for much of the season but has skidded a bit lately — and his Cavs have underperformed expectations enough that they revamped their core midseason. The Minnesota Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards could barely slide into eligibility but has been an occasional participant in the Wolves’ inconsistency. The LA Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard has had possibly the best individual season of this bunch, but his team is also in eighth place, and his franchise is amidst an investigation of his alleged actions.
If there were no 65-game rule, Cunningham would be the intuitive choice. But another direction now appears necessary.
Sixth Man of the Year
If it weren’t for injuries, this could have been the season of reserve big men. Finally, after years of instant-offense types dominating the sixth man award, the stereotype was about to blow up.
Isaiah Stewart, the NBA’s best off-the-bench defender, would have had a case to win if he played enough. But Stewart dealt with injuries. Then, he got suspended for seven games after leaving the bench during a brawl. Then, another injury came.
Opponents are shooting only 43 percent on dunks and layups when Stewart is the closest defender, according to Second Spectrum. That percentage wouldn’t just lead the league if he qualified; it would be the lowest percentage for any player since Second Spectrum began tracking data in 2013-14. The Detroit Pistons are bullies. And Stewart, even if he comes off the bench, takes the lead. But even though the 65-game rule doesn’t apply to Sixth Man of the Year, he won’t play enough to justify a spot on the ballot.
Other centers could have made niche Sixth Man cases. Steven Adams and Mitchell Robinson are the game’s two greatest rebounders. The Houston Rockets’ and New York Knicks’ offenses are dependent on their second chances. But Adams hurt his ankle. Robinson has been on a resting plan all season. They have combined to play as many minutes as the other main candidates for Sixth Man have individually.
And so, we won’t get an all-center Sixth Man ballot, though the Timberwolves’ Naz Reid remains a candidate.
In all likelihood, my ballot will come down to Reid and two others: the Miami Heat’s Jaime Jaquez and the San Antonio Spurs’ Keldon Johnson.
Jaquez has unlocked Miami to a degree this season. The Heat want to play fast; well, they throttle when Jaquez is on the court. He’s a driver, an attacker and a ball-mover. But his jump shot can go flat, which is not the same for Johnson, who has been an impressive scorer all year. His 60 percent effective field-goal percentage makes him the most efficient of this trio — far above Jaquez and even Reid, a 3-point sniper.
All three have helped their teams. Only one can win the award.
Third Team All-NBA
All-NBA becoming position-less now — compared to the previous format of two guards, two forwards and a center — has made the conversation around it less interesting. Until not long ago, you could name a few forwards, then debate who should be fifth, sixth and seventh on your list. You could do the same with guards. Now, figuring out the bottom part of the All-NBA ballot requires listing off double-digit surefire members.
So, here are my 13 locks (in no particular order), assuming those who are on pace to qualify actually do so: Dončić, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, Wembanyama, Mitchell, Brown, Edwards, Leonard, Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant, Jalen Johnson and Jamal Murray.
Two spots remain. And the types of candidates here vary.
On one side are the compilers. The Portland Trail Blazers’ Deni Avdija would be in that category. Devin Booker has propped up a better-than-expected Phoenix Suns attack. James Harden keeps getting teammates open and has shot the lights out in Cleveland. Alperen Şengün and Karl-Anthony Towns are walking 20-point double-doubles.
But there are also the ones who are better than their counting stats would imply.
Would the Thunder finishing with the NBA’s top record make them deserving of a second guy? If so, Chet Holmgren, who should be on anyone’s Defensive Player of the Year ballot, could get there. Jalen Duren has a case for one of the final spots, as well. And let’s not leave out Derrick White, whose shooting numbers are a disaster but has been the league’s best perimeter defender this season, somehow protects the rim as a point guard and is Boston’s top ball-mover.
Second and third for Coach of the Year
The closest I am to being locked in on a vote is with Coach of the Year. I struggle to imagine choosing anyone other than Boston’s Joe Mazzulla — not just because the Celtics are shockingly second in the Eastern Conference but also because of how they have arrived there. This team is analytics-forward in a non-cookie-cutter way. Just watch: Come next season, other organizations will start to copy parts of the Celtics’ philosophies, especially their dedication to the offensive boards, where they crash the glass with more enthusiasm than anyone. They do it from unconventional angles, too.
But the rest of the ballot has me uncertain.
Coach of the Year is often a difficult choice for me, because outsiders can obtain the least amount of information about it. The most valuable parts of coaching aren’t timeout usage or substitution patterns; they’re aspects of people management that we can’t see. Now, add in that this season’s pool of candidates is strong.
J.B. Bickerstaff has vaulted the Pistons from a group that lost 28 consecutive games the season before he arrived to 44 wins last season to a chance at 60 in 2025-26. The leap from a mid-tier playoff team to a top-tier one is the most difficult to make. Bickerstaff has helped the Pistons there, all while fostering a tough-minded identity.
In some ways, the Spurs’ Mitch Johnson is in an easy situation. Anyone would love to coach Wembanyama. In other ways, his job isn’t so simple. San Antonio’s three-point-guard situation was supposed to clog its rotation. Instead, Johnson has turned it into a strength. He’s got bench pieces, like Johnson, buying in. He’s not afraid to sit a veteran, such as Harrison Barnes, who started the season on fire but has fizzled in the second half. The Spurs are ahead of schedule, pacing to win more than 60 games. And he’s doing it as the man who took over for Gregg Popovich, which is no easy task.
History says Mazzulla, Bickerstaff and Johnson should probably be the three names on the ballot. Since 2000, every Coach of the Year winner has come from either a 50-win team or a top-four seed.
And yet, rookie head coach Jordan Ott has a strong argument here. Phoenix flipped its culture upon Ott’s entry. The Suns are now a physical, gritty team obsessed with winning the possession game. The Toronto Raptors’ Darko Rajaković deserves a nod, too, after forming a top-10 defense with a group that lost its starting center for much of the season.
By Fred Katz, via The Athletic