By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-03-30 14:14:37
每周一，我们都会带您回顾 NBA 的动态。本周，我们将分析 NBA 针对摆烂问题提出的最新三项提案。此外，常规赛还剩最后两周，季后赛排位战已进入白热化。倒数第二周的局势如何？
我们还准备了《NBA 红黑榜》的扩展版，这是《The Bounce》周一的固定栏目。那是我们的免费 NBA 时事通讯，您可以订阅，每天在收件箱中接收。
核心话题：解决摆烂问题？
上周，NBA 针对选秀抽签提出了三项潜在改革方案，以应对摆烂问题。我提醒一下，亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 在上周三的 NBA 董事会会议后表示，联盟将解决摆烂问题，并用“彻底终结”一词加强语气。不久之后，三项选秀抽签提案流出，它们将在 5 月的一次特别董事会会议上进行投票。
很自然地，这些想法……并不怎么高明。其中一个方案确实可能按预期发挥作用，但另外两个方案相当复杂。如果你错过了相关消息，让我们来逐一分析各方案的优缺点。我们将按照我个人认为的方案优劣倒序排列：
3. 同一届选秀进行多次抽签： 该计划要求先为前五个顺位进行一次抽签，然后再为接下来的 13 个顺位进行一次抽签。潜在的乐透球队将扩大到附加赛的四支负方球队（东西部各两支）。战绩最差的五支球队将拥有最高且相等的概率。如果这五支战绩最差的球队中有一支在第一次抽签中没有抽中前五顺位，那么无论第二次抽签结果如何，其最低顺位也只能是第 10 位。
作为一种潜在的解决方案，这显得极其愚蠢，因此，我担心这可能是 NBA 最终会采纳的方案。为什么说它蠢？
球队还是会为了进入战绩最差的前五名而摆烂！将拥有最高且相等概率的球队从三支（目前战绩最差的三支球队各有 14% 的概率）扩大到五支，根本解决不了任何问题。现在会有更多的球队试图确保自己跌入倒数前五。为 6-18 顺位设置第二次抽签只是个花哨的小点缀，没有任何实质性作用。这纯粹是噱头。在彻底消除摆烂的潜力方面，这个方案我给 0 分（满分 10 分）。
2. 两年战绩汇总： 该计划不仅包括附加赛球队，还包括季后赛首轮的出局者，所以我们讨论的是总共 22 支球队参加的抽签。他们的概率将根据过去两个赛季的累积战绩进行排名。此外，还会设置一个强制性的胜场数下限。例如，如果联盟设定 20 胜为下限，任何胜场数低于此数的球队在计算该赛季战绩时仍按 20 胜计算。因此，在特定赛季输掉超过 62 场比赛将不再有任何激励。但这是否仍在助长摆烂？
我们需要知道这 22 支球队的抽签概率分布。它们有多接近平均？给战绩差的球队多少优势？胜场下限到底应该是多少？25 胜会是理想状态吗？我们正处于近年来摆烂最严重的赛季之一，在季后赛席位之外的 10 支球队中，有 9 支在过去两个月里放弃了赢球。只有新奥尔良鹈鹕队没有摆烂，因为他们没有自己的选秀权，他们只是单纯的打得烂。本赛季可能有四支球队的胜场数在 20 场或以下。（萨克拉门托国王队目前有 19 胜，但他们在余下的赛季中可能赢不了一场以上。）
自 2013-14 赛季以来（还记得那年大家为了安德鲁·维金斯、贾巴里·帕克、乔尔·恩比德等人集体摆烂吗？），已有 20 支球队单赛季未能达到 20 胜。这还不包括今年潜在的四支。在 12 个赛季的时间跨度内（记住，有两个赛季因 COVID-19 疫情缩短），20 支球队在我看来并不算过分。如果把范围扩大到自 2013-14 赛季以来未能赢得 25 场比赛的球队，这个数字将飙升至 52 支。
胜场数下限是该提案的关键。它有潜力解决部分摆烂问题，但我同时也担心它会鼓励球队进行为期两年的摆烂，而不仅仅是一年。在解决抽签问题方面，我给它打 4 分，但如果有合理的胜场下限，分数可以提升到 6 分左右。乐透顺位的概率分配也至关重要。
1. 将抽签范围扩大到附加赛球队，并平摊倒数 10 名的概率： 该计划让战绩最差的 10 支球队在抽中高顺位方面拥有完全相等的概率，并将抽签范围扩大到附加赛出局的四支球队。我喜欢这个计划。多年来，我一直呼吁平摊所有乐透球队的概率。
反对意见认为，这会导致球队为了进入乐透区而故意输掉附加赛或季后赛，但我并不买账。这种情况偶尔可能会发生，但绝不会成为一种常态化的策略。只要有机会，球队总是想打进季后赛的。我无法想象他们会为了通过抽签获得高顺位的微小机会，而放弃几场季后赛主场收入的潜力。在这个方案下，成为一支超级烂队没有任何激励。你应该会看到越来越多的球队在这一计划下付出更多努力。
在这个提案中，虽然概率并非全盘均等，但让战绩最差的 10 支球队在抽签概率上完全平等，已经非常接近了。剩下的 8 支球队将各获得 2.5% 的概率。
当选秀顺位值得一搏时，球队仍会为了跌入倒数前 10 而摆烂，但这可能只是在最后几周发生的事情，而不是持续几个月。在解决摆烂问题上，这感觉可以打 9 分。
NBA 绝对应该选择这个方案，而不是另外两个。有时候，简单才是硬道理。
NBA 红黑榜扩展版
底特律活塞 (54-20)。 当我们得知凯德·康宁汉 (Cade Cunningham) 因肺部塌陷缺阵时，人们很自然地会担心活塞队是否面临失去东部领先地位的危险。虽然他们领先波士顿凯尔特人不少，但在康宁汉仅休息 14 分钟的比赛中，活塞就已经在得分上显得挣扎。现在不必再担心了！没有康宁汉，活塞依然表现出色。算上他受伤的那场比赛（他只打了 5 分钟），底特律取得了 6 胜 1 负。唯一的挫折是在加时赛中以一分之差负于亚特兰大老鹰，杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 在终场哨响前错失了补篮机会。
J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff) 整个赛季都带领活塞稳居东部榜首。(Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
杜伦的表现有了巨大的飞跃，场均得到 24.1 分，投篮命中率 66.7%，罚球命中率 86.9%。他还场均贡献 10.9 个篮板和 3.0 次助攻。丹尼斯·詹金斯 (Daniss Jenkins) 在这段时间里场均得到 18.1 分和 7.3 次助攻，在他本就出色的赛季基础上更进一步。在这七场比赛中，他的三分命中率高达 47.1%。这一切还是在伊赛亚·斯图尔特 (Isaiah Stewart) 因小腿拉伤缺阵的情况下完成的。活塞在剩下的赛程中面临着最艰难的考验之一，但 1 号种子的位置看起来已经稳了。
休斯顿火箭 (45-29)。 火箭在关键时刻的表现烂得令人震惊。一支拥有凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 的球队不应该这么差，然而在任何比分胶着的比赛中，他们都不可信任。关键时刻表现糟糕的最典型例子是上周加时负于明尼苏达森林狼。火箭在加时赛中浪费了 13 分的领先优势，并在最后几分钟被对手打出一波 15-0 而告负。他们成为了过去 29 年（自有文字直播数据以来）中第一支在加时赛领先 10 分或以上却输掉比赛的球队。此前，球队在这种情况下的战绩是 180 胜 0 负。现在变成了 180 胜 1 负。对于这支总能想方设法输掉关键球的球队来说，这已不是什么新鲜事。
休斯顿在分差 3 分或以内的比赛中战绩为 4 胜 9 负。在包含关键时刻（最后 5 分钟分差在 5 分以内）的比赛中，战绩为 19 胜 22 负。他们的关键时刻进攻排名第 21 位，甚至比奥兰多魔术还差。关键时刻防守排名第 25 位，仅优于华盛顿奇才、鹈鹕、迈阿密热火、丹佛掘金和布鲁克林篮网。火箭在关键时刻的净效率为 -9.4，排名联盟第 24 位。只有波特兰开拓者在关键时刻的失误比他们更多。而这一切还是在杜兰特本赛季关键时刻命中率高达 52.4% 的情况下发生的。
丹佛掘金 (48-28)。 掘金已经取得了六连胜。虽然赛程不算最艰难，但在赛季任何阶段能在西部前四中累积胜场都是有意义的。这正值掘金努力锁定西部 3 号种子的关键时刻。丹佛在过去 11 场比赛中取得了 9 胜 2 负，这支更健康的球队确实展现出了我们赛前预期的样子。贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 一直在摧毁对方防线，而尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 则在不断送出妙传。
在这 11 场比赛中，掘金的三分命中率远超 40%。而且他们的助攻失误比接近 3:1。卡梅隆·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson) 在这段时间里的三分命中率接近 50%。这正是掘金在休赛期通过交易想要得到的射手。事实上，除了约基奇之外，每个人都在投进三分球，佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 的回归是另一个巨大的助力。丹佛可能正在正确的时间找回状态，这对西部的其他球队来说非常可怕。
密尔沃基雄鹿 (29-45)****。 雄鹿已经开始摆烂了，这是件好事。因为无论如何，他们在余下的赛季里也无所作为。虽然摆烂是最近才明确的，但他们在精神上已经摆烂有一阵子了。他们在过去的 17 场比赛中输掉了 14 场。这些失利也变得相当难看。在过去的八场失利中，他们只有两场得分超过 100 分。雄鹿现在几乎没有足够的人手来维持轮换。所有的阿德托昆博兄弟都缺阵了。加里·哈里斯、瑞安·罗林斯、迈尔斯·特纳、博比·波蒂斯、凯尔·库兹马和凯文·波特最近都缺席了比赛。道格·里弗斯 (Doc Rivers) 甚至在练习中临时加入了一些杂牌进攻战术，好让球员们能通过传球获得一些投篮机会。
这支球队失误多得惊人，而且谁也防不住。扬尼斯 (Giannis) 还没有得到医疗团队的复出许可，所以他们可以把是否让他赛季报销的问题暂时搁置。这是一场巨大的混乱，但也是必要的混乱。虽然看起来不多，但雄鹿正在与芝加哥争夺位置，以争取 20.3% 的概率抽中前四顺位。
洛杉矶快船 (39-36)。 快船已经取得了五连胜，他们继续扭转本赛季前 27 场比赛的颓势。当时他们以 6 胜 21 负开局。自那以后，快船在过去的 48 场比赛中赢下了 33 场。他们最近也经历了第二次反弹。这波五连胜是在一波四连胜（包括两次负于鹈鹕和一次负于国王）似乎让快船回到现实之后取得的。他们的胜率重新回到了 50% 以上，并应该在余下的赛季中保持下去。快船也升到了西部第八，仅落后第七名的太阳 2.5 个胜场。
在这波五连胜期间，科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 继续打出世界顶级球员的表现，在场均不到 30 分钟的时间里以近 50% 的命中率砍下 27.4 分。达柳斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 的表现非常令人振奋。他的脚趾伤势看起来已经痊愈，投篮手感火热。他场均得到 25.0 分，投篮/三分/罚球命中率分别为 58.7%/58.1%/92.3%。真实命中率高达 77.4%。对于任何连续几场比赛来说，这都是相当惊人的效率。
布鲁克林篮网 (18-57)****。 好消息是篮网刚刚击败萨克拉门托，终结了 10 连败。坏消息是他们曾有过 10 连败，而且情况可能比连败场数显示的还要糟糕。篮网曾连续五场比赛得分低于 100 分，10 场比赛中有 7 场未能达到三位数。在当今这个强调投射、执行力和节奏的篮球时代，这是不可思议的。不知何故，篮网的表现远低于他们本就低得离谱的预期。在这段赛程中，篮网的进攻效率仅为 102.0。同期第二差的是密尔沃基，为 108.7。你几乎从未见过第 29 名和第 30 名之间有如此大的鸿沟。
随着篮网一头扎进摆烂大军，迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 在这些比赛中只打了一场。本·萨拉夫 (Ben Saraf)、钱尼·约翰逊 (Chaney Johnson) 和德雷克·鲍威尔 (Drake Powell) 在这场 11 场的灾难中出场时间最长。乔希·米诺特 (Josh Minott)、萨拉夫和齐艾尔·威廉姆斯 (Ziaire Williams) 得分最高。萨拉夫、诺兰·特拉奥雷 (Nolan Traore) 和米诺特出手次数最多。而且无论每个球员在场上待多久，这支球队中没有一个人的正负值是正数。马拉基·史密斯 (Malachi Smith) 在这一项上领跑——在 151 分钟内为 -1。也许该让他多打打？
卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)。 在过去的 12 场比赛中，东契奇打出了一段威尔特·张伯伦式的得分表演。这位湖人球星（译者注：原文此处疑为笔误，东契奇效力于独行侠）场均贡献 39.7 分、8.1 个篮板、6.9 次助攻和 2.5 次抢断。他的效率极高，投篮命中率为 48.9%，三分命中率为 39.3%，罚球命中率为 80.0%。这种级别的得分能力我们经常在东契奇身上看到，但很少持续这么长时间。这甚至不完全是靠他那场 60 分的比赛撑起来的，那场球刚好发生在这段连胜中期。去掉那场比赛，他在剩下的 11 场比赛中场均依然能得到 37.8 分，投篮命中率分布为 47.8/37.6/80.2。这是我们见过的东契奇打出的最好篮球之一。你为什么要交易他呢？
下周展望：季后赛席位争夺战
赛季还剩两周，排名可能会发生很大变化。让我们来看看未来一周以及可能发生的情况。
东部 2-4 名排位：
- 波士顿 (50-24)： 客场对老鹰，客场对热火，客场对雄鹿，主场对猛龙。
- 纽约 (48-27)： 客场对火箭，客场对灰熊，主场对公牛。
- 克利夫兰 (46-28)： 客场对爵士，客场对湖人，客场对勇士，主场对步行者。
尽管凯尔特人本周的赛程可能很艰难，但尼克斯追上差距的可能性似乎越来越小。我不确定凯尔特人是否还会再输三场，更不用说尼克斯还要全胜才能追平。他们在赛季最后一周确实有一场对决，如果尼克斯赢了，他们将赢得赛季系列赛的胜负关系。尼克斯可能更需要担心克利夫兰追上他们夺走第三名。或者他们希望发生这种情况？尼克斯是否觉得在第二轮对阵底特律比对阵波士顿更好？骑士队只落后一场失利，但尼克斯拥有赛季系列赛的平分决胜权。
东部 5-10 名排位：
- 多伦多 (42-32)： 客场对活塞，主场对国王，客场对灰熊，客场对凯尔特人。
- 亚特兰大 (42-33)： 主场对凯尔特人，客场对魔术，客场对篮网。
- 费城 (41-33)： 客场对热火，客场对奇才，主场对森林狼，主场对活塞。
- 奥兰多 (39-35)： 主场对太阳，主场对老鹰，客场对独行侠，客场对鹈鹕。
- 迈阿密 (39-36)： 主场对 76 人，主场对凯尔特人，客场对奇才。
- 夏洛特 (39-36)： 客场对篮网，主场对太阳，主场对步行者，客场对森林狼。
猛龙本周将努力压制老鹰和 76 人。由于要客场挑战活塞和凯尔特人，这并不容易，但他们在中间确实会遇到几支摆烂球队。老鹰也要对阵凯尔特人，但考虑到魔术和篮网的整体状态，他们本周剩下的比赛可能会很轻松。只要费城保持健康，他们本周可能会有一个很好的开局。但明尼苏达和底特律可能会制造麻烦。至于前六名的争夺，夏洛特最有机会上升到东部第八。前三场比赛应该是稳赢的，而且黄蜂在对位上确实对阵明尼苏达时表现强硬。
马刺和雷霆整个赛季都在激战，雷霆仍未锁定西部 1 号种子。(Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images)
西部 1-2 名排位：
- 俄克拉荷马城 (59-16)： 主场对活塞，主场对湖人，主场对爵士。
- 圣安东尼奥 (56-18)： 主场对公牛，客场对勇士，客场对快船，客场对掘金。
尽管马刺表现出色，但他们在排名上似乎仍无法将差距缩小到 2.5 场以内。他们的赛程显示本周至少应该取得 3 胜 1 负，但雷霆将面对没有康宁汉的活塞，以及目前只是在混日子的爵士。
西部 3-6 名排位：
- 湖人 (48-26)： 主场对奇才，主场对骑士，客场对雷霆，客场对独行侠。
- 丹佛 (48-28)： 客场对爵士，主场对马刺。
- 明尼苏达 (45-29)： 客场对独行侠，客场对活塞，客场对 76 人，主场对黄蜂。
- 休斯顿 (45-29)： 主场对尼克斯，主场对雄鹿，主场对爵士，客场对勇士。
由于本周只有两场比赛，掘金在争夺 3 号种子的过程中无法制造太大动静，所以他们需要其他球队在对阵湖人时帮帮忙。尽管东契奇因停赛将缺席对阵奇才的比赛，但华盛顿帮不上什么忙。克利夫兰和俄克拉荷马城可能会帮助打破这四支球队的僵局。明尼苏达的赛程相当艰难，但预计安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 将在对阵独行侠时复出。假设他状态良好，4 胜 0 负是有可能的。休斯顿最近一团糟，但火箭有两场绝对轻松的比赛。出于某种原因，我不确定你是否可以信任他们在对阵金州勇士时的表现。
西部附加赛排位：
- 凤凰城 (41-33)： 客场对灰熊，客场对魔术，客场对黄蜂，客场对公牛。
- 快船 (39-36)： 主场对开拓者，主场对马刺，客场对国王。
- 波特兰 (38-38)： 客场对快船，主场对鹈鹕。
- 金州 (36-38)： 主场对马刺，主场对骑士，主场对火箭。
如果太阳的赛程更艰难一些，或许值得怀疑快船是否能追上他们夺得第七名。附加赛第一阶段的主场优势对两支球队都很重要。凤凰城即使有伤病，应该仍能保持几场的领先距离。开拓者一定很高兴看到金州勇士接下来的赛程如此糟糕。如果开拓者能至少取得 1 胜 1 负，那将给勇士带来巨大压力。开拓者对勇士拥有胜负关系优势。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The NBA's potential tanking fixes (mostly) miss the mark
The NBA’s potential tanking fixes (mostly) miss the mark
Every Monday, we catch you up on the happenings in the NBA. This week, we’ll analyze the NBA’s latest three proposals to fix tanking. Also, we have two weeks left in the season for some playoff positioning. How does the penultimate week look?
We also have the extended version of the NBA Stock Report, a Monday staple in The Bounce. That’s our free NBA newsletter that you can sign up for and receive every day in your inbox.
The Big Story: Fixing tanking?
Last week, the NBA introduced three potential changes to the draft lottery to address tanking. I’ll remind you that Adam Silver said after the NBA Board of Governors meeting last Wednesday that the league will fix tanking, punctuating it with “full stop.” Not long after, the three draft lottery proposals leaked, and they will be voted on in May at a special Board of Governors meeting.
Naturally, the ideas are … not amazing. One of them could and should work the way it is intended to, but the other two plans are fairly convoluted. Just in case you missed it, let’s break down each one with the pros and cons. We’ll go in reverse order of how good I believe the idea is:
3. Multiple lotteries in one draft: This plan calls for a lottery for the first five picks in the draft, and then a lottery for the next 13 picks. The potential lottery teams would extend to the four losers of the Play-In Tournament (two in each conference). The five worst teams would have the best and equal odds. If one of the five worst teams didn’t end up with a top-five pick in the first lottery, the lowest it could potentially pick is 10th, regardless of the results of the second lottery.
This is remarkably stupid as a potential fix, and therefore, I fear it is the one the NBA might go with. Why is it so dumb?
Teams are just going to tank to end up with one of the five worst records! Extending this to five teams instead of three teams having the best-but-equal odds (14 percent currently for the three worst records) doesn’t fix a thing. Now you’ll have even more teams trying to make sure they fall into that bottom five. Having a second lottery for picks 6-18 is a cute wrinkle that doesn’t do anything of substance. It’s just gimmicky. This is a 0/10 in terms of potentially fixing the lottery system to curb/eliminate tanking “full stop.”
2. Two-year aggregates: This plan includes not just the Play-In teams but also the losers of the first round of the playoffs, so we’re talking a lottery of 22 teams in total. Their odds would be ranked based on their records over the last two seasons. And there would be a mandatory floor for wins. For example, if the league sets a 20-win floor, any team that falls short of it would still count 20 wins toward that season’s record. So losing more than 62 games in a given season would not hold any incentive. But is this still promoting tanking?
We need to know what the lottery odds for these 22 teams will be. How close to even are they? How much advantage is given to the teams with bad records? What should the win total floor actually be? Would 25 wins be the ideal situation? We have one of the biggest tanking seasons in recent memory going on, with nine of the 10 teams outside of the postseason bailing on trying to win the last couple of months of the season. Only the New Orleans Pelicans aren’t tanking because they don’t own their draft pick. They’re just bad. Four teams could finish with 20 wins or fewer this season. (The Sacramento Kings have 19 wins, but they might not win more than one game the rest of this season.)
Since the 2013-14 season (remember everybody tanking that year for Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid and more?), 20 teams have failed to reach 20 wins in a season. That doesn’t count the four potentially this year. Twenty teams over a 12-season span (remember, two seasons were cut short because of the COVID-19 pandemic) doesn’t seem egregious to me. Expand it to teams that failed to win 25 games since 2013-14, and that number jumps to 52.
The floor for the win total is the key to this proposal. It has the potential to fix part of the tanking issue, but I also fear it encourages teams to tank for two-year periods, rather than just one. I’d give it a 4/10 for potentially fixing the lottery, but the win floor could push it to like a 6. The odds breakdown for the lottery spots would definitely matter too.
1. Extend the lottery to Play-In teams and even out the bottom-10 odds: This plan gives us the teams with the 10 worst records all having even odds of moving up, and we extend the lottery to the four teams that lost the Play-In. I like this plan. For years, I’ve been calling for flattening the odds for every team that qualifies for the lottery.
The pushback has been that you’d get teams tanking out of the Play-In/playoffs, which I just don’t buy. It might happen every once in a while, but there’s no way this would be a consistent tactic. Teams will always want to make the playoffs if they can. I can’t imagine them bailing on the potential of a couple of games of home playoff revenue for a minuscule chance at securing a top pick through the lottery. Here, there is no incentive to be a horrific team. You should end up getting more and more teams putting forth a better effort with this plan.
In this proposal, we don’t quite have even odds across the board, but making the 10 worst teams all equal in how the lottery odds shake out is nearly doing that. The remaining eight teams would all receive 2.5 percent odds.
Teams will tank into those bottom-10 spots when the draft makes it worth it, but that might be something that happens over a couple of weeks rather than a couple of months. This feels like a 9/10 on fixing tanking.
The NBA should absolutely go with this plan over the other two. Sometimes, you just need to keep it simple.
NBA Stock Report Extended
Detroit Pistons (54-20). As soon as we learned that Cade Cunningham was out with a collapsed lung, it was fair to wonder if the Pistons might be in danger of losing their lead in the Eastern Conference. They had a big cushion over the Boston Celtics, but the Pistons already struggled to score in games where Cunningham sat for just 14 minutes. Worry no longer! The Pistons have been just fine without Cunningham. Counting the game he got hurt (in which he only played five minutes), Detroit is 6-1. The only setback was a one-point loss in overtime to the Atlanta Hawks, with Jalen Duren missing a putback attempt at the buzzer.
J.B. Bickerstaff has had the Pistons at the top of the East all season. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
Duren has stepped up massively, averaging 24.1 points on 66.7 percent shooting from the field and 86.9 percent from the foul line. He’s also averaging 10.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists. Daniss Jenkins has improved on his already stellar season with 18.1 points and 7.3 assists during this stretch. He’s knocking down 47.1 percent of his 3-pointers in these seven games. This is all happening with Isaiah Stewart out with a calf strain. The Pistons have one of the toughest schedules the rest of the way, but the No. 1 seed appears to be safe.
Houston Rockets (45-29). The Rockets have been shockingly horrible in the clutch. A team adding Kevin Durant should not be this bad, and yet it can’t be trusted in any close game. The biggest spotlight on the clutch woes was the overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last week. The Rockets blew a 13-point overtime lead and lost by giving up a 15-0 run in the final couple of minutes. They became the first team in the last 29 years (when play-by-play data became available) to lose a game after leading by 10 or more in overtime. Teams were 180-0 in those games. Now they’re 180-1. It’s nothing new with this team figuring out how to lose tight games.
Houston is 4-9 in games decided by three points or fewer. It’s 19-22 in games with clutch minutes (margin of five points or fewer in the final five minutes). It’s 21st in clutch offense, even worse than the Orlando Magic. It’s 25th in clutch defense, only better than the Washington Wizards, Pelicans, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets and Brooklyn Nets. The Rockets’ minus-9.4 net rating in the clutch is 24th in the NBA. Only the Portland Trail Blazers turn the ball over more in the clutch. This is all happening with Durant shooting 52.4 percent in the clutch this season.
Denver Nuggets (48-28). That’s six wins in a row for the Nuggets. It hasn’t been the toughest of schedules, but stacking wins at any point in the season in the top four of the Western Conference is meaningful, no matter what. This is coming at a crucial time with the Nuggets trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West. Denver has gone 9-2 in its last 11 games, and the healthier version of this team definitely looks the way we expected it to going into the season. Jamal Murray has been torching opposing defenses, and Nikola Jokić is dropping dimes left and right.
The Nuggets are making well over 40 percent of their 3-pointers during these 11 games. And they have almost a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Cam Johnson is just under 50 percent from 3-point range during this. That’s the shooter the Nuggets thought they traded for in the offseason. Really, everybody except for Jokić is knocking down 3-pointers, and the return of Peyton Watson is another big boost. Denver might be hitting its stride at the right time, which is scary for everybody else out West.
Milwaukee Bucks (29-45)****. The Bucks have embraced the tank, which is good. Because they weren’t going to do anything the rest of this season anyway. While the tank has only recently become part of their M.O., they have been doing it in spirit for a while. They’ve lost 14 of their last 17 games. These losses are getting pretty ugly, too. They’ve only cleared 100 points in two of their last eight losses. The Bucks barely have enough bodies right now for a rotation. All of the Antetokounmpos are out. Gary Harris Jr., Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. have all missed games recently. Doc Rivers is even putting on-the-fly junk offenses into practice to give the guys a chance to move the ball to get some shots.
This team is turning it over like crazy, and they can’t guard anybody. And Giannis hasn’t been cleared by the medical staff yet, so they get to kick the can down the road on whether or not they shut him down for the rest of the season. This is a big-time mess, but it’s a necessary mess. It may not seem like much, but the Bucks are battling with Chicago to be in a position for a 20.3 percent chance to move up to a top-four pick in the lottery.
LA Clippers (39-36). The Clippers are up to five straight wins, as they continue to reverse their fortunes from the first 27 games this season. That’s when they began 6-21. Since then, the Clippers have won 33 of their last 48 games. They’ve turned it around a second time recently, too. This five-game win streak comes after a four-game losing streak (which included two losses to the Pelicans and a loss to the Kings) seemingly brought the Clippers back down to earth. They’re back over .500 and should remain there for the rest of the season. The Clippers are also up to eighth in the West, and they’re only 2 1/2 games behind the Suns for seventh.
During this five-game streak, Kawhi Leonard continues to play like one of the best players in the world, putting up 27.4 points on nearly 50 percent from the field in fewer than 30 minutes per game. Darius Garland’s play is super encouraging. He looks healthy from that toe issue, and he’s shooting the lights out. He’s been averaging 25.0 points with 58.7/58.1/92.3 shooting splits. That’s a 77.4 percent true shooting. For any handful of games, that’s a pretty impressive efficiency.
Brooklyn Nets (18-57)****. The good news is the Nets just beat Sacramento to end their 10-game losing streak. The bad news is they had a 10-game losing streak, and it might have been even worse than the number of consecutive losses would lead you to believe. The Nets had five consecutive games scoring fewer than 100 points, and seven of the 10 games didn’t see them hit triple digits. That’s unfathomable in this era of basketball with the shooting, the execution and the pace of play. Somehow, the Nets managed to fly way under their already subterraneanly low expectations. The Nets have a 102.0 offensive rating during this stretch of basketball. The second worst during this stretch is Milwaukee at 108.7. You never see a gulf like that between 29th and 30th.
Michael Porter Jr. has only played in one of these games as the Nets dive headfirst into tanking. Ben Saraf, Chaney Johnson and Drake Powell have the most minutes during this 11-game disaster. Josh Minott, Saraf and Ziaire Williams have the most points. Saraf, Nolan Traore and Minott have the most shot attempts. And no matter how much time is on the court for any individual player, there isn’t a single positive plus/minus on this team. Malachi Smith is the leader in that category at minus-1 in 151 minutes. Maybe play him more?
Luka Dončić. Over his last 12 games, Dončić is going on a Wilt Chamberlain-esque scoring stretch. The Lakers star is averaging 39.7 points with 8.1 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 2.5 steals during this stretch. He’s doing it on a great level of efficiency, knocking down 48.9 percent of his shots, 39.3 percent of his 3-pointers and 80.0 percent of his free throws. The level of shot making is something we see from Dončić all the time, but not this extended period of time. This isn’t even pumped up all that much by his 60-point game, which fell in the middle of this streak. Take that out, and he’s still averaging 37.8 points on 47.8/37.6/80.2 shooting splits in those 11 games. This is some of the best basketball we’ve seen from Dončić. Why would you ever trade him?
The Week Ahead: Playoff Race
There are two weeks left in the season, and a lot of change can happen in the standings. Let’s take a look at the upcoming week and what might happen.
Eastern Conference 2-4 seeding:
- Boston (50-24): at Hawks, at Heat, at Bucks, home to Raptors.
- New York (48-27): at Rockets, at Grizzlies, home to Bulls.
- Cleveland (46-28): at Jazz, at Lakers, at Warriors, home to Pacers.
Even though the Celtics have a potentially tough schedule this week, it feels less and less likely the Knicks are going to make up the distance in the standings. I’m not sure the Celtics will lose three more games, let alone have the Knicks win out to tie them. They do have a showdown in the final week of the season, and it would give the Knicks the season series if they win it. They might need to be more worried about Cleveland catching them for the third spot. Or do they want that to happen? Do the Knicks feel better about a second-round matchup against Detroit, rather than Boston? The Cavs are just one loss back, but the Knicks own the season series tiebreaker.
Eastern Conference 5-10 seeding:
- Toronto (42-32): at Pistons, home to Kings, at Grizzlies, at Celtics.
- Atlanta (42-33): home to Celtics, at Magic, at Nets.
- Philadelphia (41-33): at Heat, at Wizards, home to Wolves, home to Pistons.
- Orlando (39-35): home to Suns, home to Hawks, at Mavs, at Pelicans.
- Miami (39-36): home to Sixers, home to Celtics, at Wizards.
- Charlotte (39-36): at Nets, home to Suns, home to Pacers, at Wolves.
The Raptors are spending this week trying to keep the Hawks and 76ers at bay. That won’t be easy with the Pistons and Celtics ahead of them for road games, but they do get a couple of tanking teams in the middle. The Hawks also get the Celtics, but the collective states of the Magic and Nets make the rest of their week a potential breeze. As long as Philly is healthy, it could have a great start to the week. But Minnesota and Detroit could prove troublesome. As for the rest of the search for the top six, Charlotte has the best chance of moving up to eighth in the East. Those first three games should be wins, and the Hornets definitely play Minnesota tough as a matchup.
The Spurs and Thunder have been battling all season, and the No. 1 seed in the West still isn’t locked down by OKC. (Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images)
Western Conference 1-2 seeding:
- Oklahoma City (59-16): home to Pistons, home to Lakers, home to Jazz.
- San Antonio (56-18): home to Bulls, at Warriors, at Clippers, at Nuggets.
As good as the Spurs have been, they still can’t seem to get closer than 2 1/2 games in the standings. Their schedule shows they should at least go 3-1 this week, but the Thunder are getting the Pistons without Cunningham and a Jazz team that is just showing up right now.
Western Conference 3-6 seeding:
- Lakers (48-26): home to Wizards, home to Cavs, at Thunder, at Mavs.
- Denver (48-28): at Jazz, home to Spurs.
- Minnesota (45-29): at Mavs, at Pistons, at Sixers, home to Hornets.
- Houston (45-29): home to Knicks, home to Bucks, home to Jazz, at Warriors.
The Nuggets can’t make too much noise in their pursuit of the No. 3 seed with just two games on the docket, so they’re going to need teams to help them out against the Lakers. Even with Dončić missing the Wizards game due to suspension, Washington won’t be much help. Cleveland and OKC could help shake up this four-team logjam. Minnesota has a pretty tough schedule, but it’s expected to get Anthony Edwards back against Dallas. Assuming he’s good to go, 4-0 is on the table. Houston has been a mess lately, but the Rockets have two definitely easy games. For some reason, I’m not sure you can trust them against Golden State.
Western Conference Play-In positioning:
- Phoenix (41-33): at Grizzlies, at Magic, at Hornets, at Bulls.
- Clippers (39-36): home to Blazers, home to Spurs, at Kings.
- Portland (38-38): at Clippers, home to Pelicans.
- Golden State (36-38): home to Spurs, home to Cavs, home to Rockets.
If the Suns had a tougher schedule, it might be worth wondering if the Clippers can catch them for the seventh spot. That home-court advantage in the first stage of the Play-In would be big for both teams. Phoenix, even with its injuries, should still be able to maintain a couple of games of distance. Portland has to be happy that Golden State has such a bad run of games here. If Portland can go at least 1-1, then that puts a lot of pressure on the Warriors. The Blazers hold that tiebreaker over them.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic