By Boxscorehistory | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-03-25 18:33:53
2月20日，我发布了一篇球迷贴，介绍了一个名为“平均四因素指数 (Average Four Factor Index, aFFI)”的指标。我在这里不会对该指数进行详尽的入门介绍（感兴趣的读者可以点击此处查看原始贴文），简而言之，aFFI 旨在根据球队在迪恩·奥利弗 (Dean Oliver) 的“篮球成功四因素”中取得的球队与对手的差值，来评估球队在特定时期内（例如：本赛季至今、最近 X 场比赛等）的平均表现。这四因素包括：有效投篮命中率 (EFG%)、失误率 (TOV%)、进攻篮板率 (ORB%) 以及罚球命中数与投篮尝试比 (FTM/FGA)。由于 aFFI 侧重于球队与对手之间的差值，我在每个术语前添加了一个 delta 符号（即 ∆EFG%、∆TOV%、∆ORB%、∆FTM/FGA）。
在发布原始贴文时，圣安东尼奥马刺队的战绩为 38 胜 16 负，拥有全联盟第三高的赛季 aFFI 值 (56.98)。自那以后，马刺又拿下了 16 胜 2 负的战绩，将赛季 aFFI 提升至 57.87，稳居第三，领先于排名第四的底特律活塞，尽管仍显著落后于俄克拉荷马城雷霆。图 1 展示了基于截至 3 月 24 日比赛数据的全联盟 30 支球队赛季 aFFI 值及其背后的各项差值百分位排名。
当然，尤其是在如此临近季后赛的时刻，基于整个赛季至今的 aFFI 值可能会严重误导对一支球队前景的判断。为了解决这个问题，我们可以缩小参考范围，仅捕捉最近一段时间的表现。具体如何定义这个窗口期尚存争议，但在实践中，我发现“最近 20 场比赛”的窗口期在捕捉相关表现与保留足够样本量之间达到了很好的平衡，能防止单一事件（如一场表现极好或极差的比赛）扭曲结果。图 2 提供了基于截至 3 月 24 日最近 20 场 aFFI 值的球队排名。
根据最近 20 场比赛的表现衡量，马刺在 aFFI 方面遥遥领先，成为联盟中表现最好的球队，领先第二名近 3 分。令人颇为恼火的是（考虑到选秀权因素），亚特兰大老鹰占据了第二的位置，尽管雷霆和尼克斯仅落后其零点几分。对比图 1 和图 2，可以明显看到有些球队正在强势冲刺（如亚特兰大），而有些球队则在常规赛收官阶段步履蹒跚（如丹佛、明尼苏达）。当然，这些排名需要谨慎解读，且未考虑球员伤病等关键细节；然而，在常规赛还剩约 10 场比赛的情况下，我更倾向于依靠这 20 场 aFFI 值来评估季后赛球队的争冠成色。
简而言之，上述证据表明马刺全年的表现都非常出色，并且是进入季后赛前联盟中最强劲的球队。不过，参考历史数据将有助于更好地理解当前这支马刺到底有多强。为此，我将呼应前文提到的贴文，通过两支球队赛季中 20 场 aFFI 值的演变过程，将 2025-2026 赛季的马刺与 2013-2014 赛季的冠军之师进行对比。
一个多月前我第一次做这种对比时曾指出，2013-2014 赛季那支冠军球队的一个显著特征是他们在赛季末段打出了惊人的表现，其中包括一波 19 连胜，这使得他们的 20 场 aFFI 值在第 75 场比赛时从接近联盟平均水平飙升至 63 以上。当时我提到，本赛季的马刺需要打出类似的表现才能达到 2013-2014 赛季马刺的高度，而瞧瞧，他们真的做到了。在季后赛开始前还剩 10 场比赛之际，如今的马刺正展现出足以媲美上一支马刺冠军队在常规赛巅峰时期的竞技水平。
这是否意味着我们应该认为当前这支球队拥有与 2013-2014 赛季马刺相同的夺冠概率？就常规赛统计表现而言，我会毫不犹豫地回答“是的”；但我也会首先承认，统计数据并非唯一的影响因素。特别是 2013-2014 赛季的那支球队拥有数十年的集体季后赛经验，其中包括三位核心名人堂成员，他们自 2002-2003 赛季以来参加了每一次季后赛，并共同赢得了三次总冠军。除此之外，那是一支在 2013 年总决赛惨痛负于迈阿密热火后，一心想要完成救赎的球队。
相比之下，目前的马刺队中充斥着从未在七场系列赛中经受过考验的季后赛菜鸟，除了达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)（他总共只打过 7 场季后赛）之外，首发核心的每一位成员都是如此，此外还有来自哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 的一些角色球员夺冠经验。历史经验强烈预示，这种经验的匮乏将在季后赛期间对圣安东尼奥造成伤害，在试图建立客观预期时，很难忽视这一基准。然而，一个反向论点是，这支球队由一位史无前例的球员领衔，他似乎并不介意重新定义各种可能性。我无法量化这种价值，但我可以告诉你，它从根本上塑造了我对这支球队所能成就高度的看法。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Average Four Factor Index Update: Spurs’ current trajectory mirrors 2014 championship run
Average Four Factor Index Update: Spurs’ current trajectory mirrors 2014 championship run
On February 20th, I wrote a fan post in which I introduced a metric called the Average Four Factor Index (aFFI). I won’t provide a full primer on the index here (interested readers can find one in the original fan post by clicking here), but the TLDR explanation is that the aFFI is designed to assess a team’s average performance during a defined period (e.g., the season to date, the most recent X-game period, etc.) based on the team-opponent differentials it has achieved with respect to Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of Basketball Success: effective field goal percentage (EFG%), turnover percentage (TOV%), offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%), and the ratio of free throws made to field goals attempted (FTM/FGA). Because aFFI focuses on team-opponent differentials, I add a delta symbol in front of each term (i.e., ∆EFG%, ∆TOV%, ∆ORB%, ∆FTM/FGA).
At the time of the original post, San Antonio was 38-16 and had the the third highest season-long aFFI value (56.98). Since then, the Spurs have added 16 more wins and just two losses, pushing their season-long aFFI to 57.87, which is firmly ahead of third-ranked Detroit, albeit still notably behind OKC. A full 30-team list of season-long aFFI values and the underlying differential percentiles behind them (based on games played through March 24th) is provided in Figure 1 above.
Of course, especially this close to the playoffs, aFFI values based on the entire season to date can significantly misrepresent the outlook of a team. To get at that, we can narrow our reference period to only capture performance during a more recent period of games. Exactly how to define this window is debatable, but in practice I’ve found that the most recent 20-game window strikes a nice balance between capturing relevant performance and retaining enough sample size to prevent singular events (e.g., a really good or bad game) from distorting the results. A set of team rankings based on 20-game aFFI values through March 24th are provided in Figure 2 below.
As measured by its most recent 20-game window, San Antonio has been far and away the best team in the league according to aFFI, with a nearly three-point lead over second place. Quite irritatingly (for draft reasons), Atlanta sits in that second-place spot, though OKC and the Knicks are within a few tenths of a point. In comparing Figures 1 and 2, it is clear that some teams are surging (e.g., Atlanta), whereas others are currently stumbling to the finish line (e.g., Denver, Minnesota). Of course, these rankings have to be interpreted with caution and don’t account for critical details like player injuries; however, with about 10 games left to go in the season, I tend to lean on this 20-game aFFI value to assess the contender status of playoff-bound teams.
Put simply, the evidence above suggests that the Spurs have been excellent all year and are the strongest team in the league heading into the postseason. However, a historical point of reference would be useful to better understand just how good this current iteration of the Spurs is. For that, I’ll echo the previously mentioned fan post and compare the 2025-2026 Spurs to the 2013-2014 championship team according to the evolution of each team’s 20-game aFFI value over the course of the season.
When I first made this comparison over a month ago, I noted that a defining feature of the 2013-2014 championship squad was their stunning run towards the end of the season, which included a 19-game win streak that pushed their 20-game aFFI from near league average to over 63 by game 75 of the season. At that time, I noted that this season’s team was going to need a similar run to reach the heights of the 2013-2014 Spurs, and low and behold they’ve done exactly that. With 10 games left before the postseason, today’s Spurs are exhibiting a level of play that rivals the last Spurs champions at their regular-season best.
Does this mean we should view the current team as having the same championship odds that the 2013-2014 Spurs had? In terms of regular season statistical performance, I’d say “yes” without hesitation; however, I’ll be the first to admit that stats aren’t the only factor at play here. In particular, the 2013-2014 squad had decades of collective playoff experience, including a three-person core of hall of famers who had played together in every postseason dating back to 2002-2003 and won three championships together. Beyond that, they were a team hell-bent on redemption after their gut wrenching loss to Miami in the 2013 finals.
In contrast, the current Spurs are rife with playoff neophytes who have never been tested in a seven-game series, including every member of its starting core outside of De’Aaron Fox (who has logged a total of just seven playoff games), plus some role player championship experience from Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet. History strongly suggests that this lack of experience will hurt San Antonio come playoff time, and it’s hard to ignore that benchmark when trying to develop objective expectations. However, a counterargument is that this team is led by a historically unprecedented player who appears to have no qualms about redefining what’s possible. I can’t quantify the value of that, but I can tell you that it has fundamentally shaped what I think this team can achieve.
By Boxscorehistory, via Pounding The Rock