By Sam Vecenie | The Athletic, 2026-03-23 10:30:48
这一届新秀的表现非常出色，未来很可能会诞生多位 NBA 全明星球员。前杜克大学队友康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 和库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 继续在年度最佳新秀的争夺中难解难分。我们将在下文深入分析这场竞争，但除了他们两人之外，这一届的其他球员同样令人印象深刻。
迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 在过去的 25 场比赛中强势崛起。塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward) 和 VJ·艾奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 始终是各自球队中极具价值的成员。在他们之后，我认为大约有 13 名球员有相当大的机会入选最佳新秀阵容，其中包括几位甚至没有进入我这份前 15 名名单的球员。这些新秀以及 2026 年 NBA 选秀届的成员，很可能会在未来几年内为整个联盟完成一次重大的天才储备换血。
关于本榜单的说明：我们根据这些新秀目前在 NBA 的表现对全联盟前 15 名进行排名，而非对他们未来潜力的预测。这是一个全赛季表现的排名，而不是基于“谁现在打得最好”。
我在排名时会看重什么？出场时间和角色非常重要。每个新秀被要求完成什么任务？他们的上场频率如何？他们是否被要求创造进攻机会？他们的角色是否受限，以及他们在该角色中的表现如何？球队在他们承担该角色时的表现如何？该角色的难度系数是多少？该球员是在一支强队中打主力时间，还是在一支弱队中刷时长？
这是一门艺术，而非严谨的科学。排名涉及对数据的审视和对大量比赛录像的细致分析；我更看重后者。
让我们开始吧。
| 排名 | 球员 | 球队 | 得分 | 篮板 | 助攻 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 康·克努佩尔 | 夏洛特黄蜂 | 19.3 | 5.3 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 库珀·弗拉格 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 20.1 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| 3 | VJ·艾奇库姆 | 费城76人 | 15.3 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| 4 | 迪伦·哈珀 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| 5 | 塞德里克·考沃德 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 |
| 6 | 马克西姆·雷诺 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 1.1 |
| 7 | 艾斯·贝利 | 犹他爵士 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 8 | 德里克·奎恩 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 |
| 9 | 特雷·约翰逊 | 华盛顿奇才 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 2 |
| 10 | 杰里迈亚·费尔斯 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 13.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| 11 | 柯林·默里-博伊尔斯 | 多伦多猛龙 | 7.8 | 5 | 2 |
| 12 | 叶戈尔·德明 | 布鲁克林篮网 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 13 | 瑞安·考克布伦纳 | 夏洛特黄蜂 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 0.8 |
| 14 | 乌戈·冈萨雷斯 | 波士顿凯尔特人 | 4 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 15 | 威尔·莱利 | 华盛顿奇才 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
克努佩尔 vs. 弗拉格：NBA 最精彩的奖项之争
在本榜单的上一次迭代中，由于弗拉格在达拉斯独行侠的一段惊人表现，我首次将他排在克努佩尔之前，位列新秀榜首。在排名发布前的九场比赛中，弗拉格场均贡献 27.4 分、8 个篮板和 4 次助攻，看起来正在成长为全联盟球队梦寐以求的顶级侧翼对位猎人。然而，就在那段高光表现之后，弗拉格因足部扭伤缺席了独行侠接下来的八场比赛。他在复出后花了一些时间才找回状态，复出的前五场比赛场均仅得到 15.6 分，投篮命中率只有 35%。
但只要看看弗拉格最近对阵克利夫兰骑士的两场比赛，你就能轻易再次燃起对他的期待。首场比赛他砍下 25 分、4 个篮板和 5 次助攻；第二场比赛他更是以荒谬的 27 分、6 个篮板和 10 次助攻带领独行侠爆冷取胜。我认为这是我整年看到的除了他在对阵夏洛特黄蜂时狂砍 49 分之外，新秀打出的最出色的一场比赛，他在决策上无懈可击，同时还展现了高水平的防守。紧接着，在对阵新奥尔良鹈鹕的比赛中，他再次交出了 21 分、7 个篮板和 8 次助攻的全能答卷，随着达拉斯越来越倾向于让他持球进攻。
尽管如此，弗拉格缺席的那八场比赛以及复出后那五场挣扎的表现，足以让我把表现极其稳定的克努佩尔重新推回榜首。这位身高 6 英尺 6 英寸的狙击手继续打出惊人的篮球表现，同时帮助黄蜂队向季后赛发起冲击。克努佩尔最疯狂的一点在于他一直在进步。在本周黄蜂队大胜从而能限制他出场时间的三场比赛之前，他在之前的 13 场比赛中场均得到 21.4 分、4.5 个篮板和 2.6 次助攻，而失误仅为 0.9 次，投篮命中率达到了惊人的 51.4%，三分命中率在场均 9 次出手的情况下高达 45.6% (!)，罚球命中率为 78%。虽然他在过去 16 场比赛中罚丢了 12 个球，可能最终让他无缘成为历史上首位场均至少 15 分且达成“50-40-90”赛季的新秀，但这无法抹杀他这个赛季的壮丽表现。
目前，我将克努佩尔稳稳地排在弗拉格之前，作为我心目中年度最佳新秀的首选，但这并不意味着弗拉格在赛季末的冲刺没有反超的可能。不过，我认为弗拉格将面临的问题是克努佩尔同样没有减速的迹象。黄蜂队和查尔斯·李 (Charles Lee) 已经找到了以极具创意和趣味的方式将克努佩尔“武器化”的方法。
有非常充分的理由证明，克努佩尔已经是联盟中最全能的无球射手。他能利用宽大的下掩护兜出，在弧顶接球命中三分。他能在转换进攻中拖后并减速，迫使防守者去防守冲向篮下的黄蜂队友，然后突然出现在空档接球投中快攻三分。球队还会利用他进行后卫间的掩护，让他切入侧翼创造空位投篮机会。他的投篮虚晃极具威胁，而他利用掩护的篮球智商甚至更高。如果在两人配合中对手在手递手传球时对他进行绕前防守，他会直接拉开到角落寻找空位。如果防守人紧贴并绕过掩护，他会全速冲向投篮点，通过垫步或 1-2 步快速站定并出手。他的脚法是顶级的，这使他能够利用防守给出的任何破绽，因为他始终保持着身体平衡。
在 NBA，全面性至关重要。如果你只会一招，球队总能找到限制你首选进攻方案的方法。关键在于能够应对对手给出的防守，并且比防守方拥有更多的“解题方案”。克努佩尔对每一个考验都有大量的答案，这正是他成为如此致命的进攻球员的原因。在赛季还剩三周左右的时候，他就是我心目中的年度最佳新秀。
迪伦·哈珀正展示他为何是去年选秀的榜眼秀。(Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)
哈珀的飞跃是实打实的
圣安东尼奥马刺对榜眼秀迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的培养比其他高顺位新秀更缓慢，原因有二。首先，他处理了两处阻碍他进步的伤病。去年 9 月，他接受了左手拇指韧带部分撕裂的手术，这让他缺席了大部分训练营和季前赛。他在马刺赛季开始时复出，在前六场比赛中每场都得分上双，但随后遭遇左小腿拉伤，缺席了约三周的比赛。
在他缺阵期间，达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在马刺复出，球队花了一些时间来研究如何将福克斯、哈珀和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 整合进轮换阵容。圣安东尼奥在后场和侧翼拥有深厚的深度，从 12 月中旬到 1 月中旬，哈珀似乎经常是那个被排除在轮换之外的人。在 12 月 13 日到 1 月 25 日的 22 场比赛中，他场均仅得到 8.2 分，投篮命中率为 39.7%，三分命中率为 22.4%。他虽然偶有佳作，但由于球队在摸索如何最好地使用他，他的上场时间并不稳定。
然而，在 1 月 25 日输给新奥尔良之后，一切都改变了。在哈珀过去的 23 场比赛中，他是联盟中除了弗拉格或克努佩尔之外表现最好的新秀。只要这种状态持续到年底，他入选最佳新秀第一阵容应该是板上钉钉的事。他场均贡献 13.2 分、3.5 个篮板和 4.3 次助攻，而场均失误仅为 1.4 次，投篮命中率高达 58.3%，三分命中率 40.4%。哈珀还将他原本就令人印象深刻的防守提升到了夸张的水平，他与斯蒂芬·卡斯尔联手，凭借臂展、身体对抗和速度，让对手的进攻发起点苦不堪言。
当斯蒂芬·卡斯尔和哈珀在年度最佳防守球员领跑者维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 面前游弋于外线时，球队的防守简直是密不透风。根据 Databallr 的数据，当哈珀与文班亚马在场而没有斯蒂芬·卡斯尔时，球队每 100 回合得到 122 分，仅失 101 分。当斯蒂芬·卡斯尔与文班亚马在场而没有哈珀时，球队每 100 回合得到 122 分，失 110 分。而当这三人同时在场时？马刺队简直是在蹂躏对手，每 100 回合轰下 125.8 分，而仅失 91.5 分。这正是总经理布莱恩·莱特 (Brian Wright) 和马刺管理层在过去三年的选秀中用前五顺位选中这三人时所憧憬的未来。
我不确定自 2020-21 赛季以来，是否还见过比他更令人印象深刻的突破型后卫进入 NBA。如果哈珀被选中到另一个能让他完全掌控进攻的环境中，我认为他现在的场均得分极有可能超过 20 分。在转换进攻中，他对于防守方来说就像是一个蛇形突破的噩梦，利用顶级的脚步、合球动作以及近 7 英尺的臂展冲击篮筐完成终结。他绕过防守者进行欧洲步同时保持力量与优雅平衡的能力，在同龄人中是顶尖的，你可以在这里观看他在 3 月 1 日对阵纽约尼克斯时的表现。
哈珀在篮下的半场阵地进攻投篮命中率约为 60%，每场比赛能创造约三次这样的机会，考虑到他每晚仅打 22 分钟，这是一个非常强劲的数据。但如果你看过去 20 场比赛，他在篮下的命中率实际上达到了惊人的 72%，这基本上是你对一个有大量扣篮的后卫所期待的数据。随着比赛节奏对哈珀来说逐渐变慢，他变得更擅长利用不同的变速和合球来达到他想去的位置。
这里的背景也很重要。马刺现在的空间拉得非常好，米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 和管理层构建了精妙的阵容，通常在哈珀身边安排至少三个空间点，他在这一段表现中最常见的五名队友中有四位（凯尔登·约翰逊、德文·瓦塞尔、文班亚马和福克斯）都能拉开空间。约翰逊这种精明的阵容管理给予了哈珀这种新秀在适应职业联赛时所需的空间和时间。
本赛季哈珀的表现已经足以让我们相信他最终会成长为一名全明星后卫。克努佩尔的表现令人难以置信，显然拥有一个更好的新秀赛季。但我不敢说我不会赌哈珀的职业生涯会更辉煌。我非常看好克努佩尔，并长期认为人们错误地怀疑了他的上限。他也将在未来的某个时刻成为全明星。这更多是基于我对哈珀上限的评价——他冲击篮筐的能力、在高节奏下打球的能力以及创造高价值投篮的能力。如果现在重选，我可能还是会在第二顺位选他。哈珀唯一需要的就是稳定的急停跳投。如果这一招练成，他将变得几乎无法防守。
莱利可能是奇才队最有趣的侧翼前景
我是特雷·约翰逊 (Tre Johnson) 的忠实粉丝，约翰逊在这里的排名领先于他的首轮队友威尔·莱利 (Will Riley)，因为他整个赛季在奇才队的表现都非常稳定。约翰逊是一名顶尖射手，看起来是奇才队的长期首发，而特雷·杨的存在将帮助他创造更多投篮机会。
但基于莱利在过去两个月里进步的速度，我开始怀疑莱利是否才是奇才队在侧翼位置上最吸引人的长期前景，甚至超过了约翰逊、凯肖恩·乔治 (Kyshawn George)、布巴卡尔·卡林顿 (Bub Carrington) 和比拉尔·库利巴利 (Bilal Coulibaly)。在莱利过去的 23 场比赛中，他场均得到 14.5 分、3.7 个篮板和 2.4 次助攻，投篮命中率为 46%，三分命中率为 37%，罚球命中率为 77%。但更重要的是，他打球的方式令人印象深刻。
去年我花了很长时间才认可莱利这个前景，很大程度上是因为我担心他单薄的身材和不稳定的跳投能否在 NBA 立足。莱利一直拥有不错的手感，但机械动作有些古怪，导致他的投篮轨迹极低，像激光一样射向篮筐。但我最终认可他，并将他的排名定在奇才队选中他的区间，是因为他在突破时的无畏。最让我印象深刻的是，尽管他的体型较瘦——登记身高 6 英尺 9 英寸，体重 180 磅——莱利打球时总是走直线，直冲篮筐。即便对手试图将他撞离路线，他的脚步和合球依然非常出色。
这一点在 NBA 得到了延续。他并不是特别快，但他非常灵活，长距离的跨步可以覆盖很大面积。他能创造出你意想不到的角度，然后令人印象深刻地应对这些角度。但他的目标始终是寻找直通篮筐的直线，而不是在突破时绕大圈。这里有一个对阵强壮防守者德斯蒙德·贝恩的绝佳例子。看看当他感觉到贝恩稍微偏离防守路线向右移动时，莱利立刻用一个漂亮的胯下变向回应，然后直接冲向篮筐，即便贝恩努力追防也无济于事。
威尔这球太横了
pic.twitter.com/p6imSIcxwz
— 华盛顿奇才 (@ WashWizards) 2026年3月4日
还有这一球，最终化为一次漂亮的妙传。莱利先是向右快速运球晃开金州勇士队的吉·桑托斯，然后向左转身切入直线冲向篮筐，迫使德雷蒙德·格林过来补防，随后他找到了传给朱朱·里斯 (Juju Reese) 的路线。尽管莱利去年在伊利诺伊大学场均只有 2.2 次助攻，但他保持了 2 比 1 的助攻失误比，并在突破中展示了一些亮眼的传球，这让人相信他在 NBA 的潜力。
威尔妙传
朱朱进球
pic.twitter.com/pXFVJSIr2d
— 华盛顿奇才 (@ WashWizards) 2026年3月17日
除此之外，莱利的三分跳投也经过了大量的打磨。他的投篮弧度更高了，出手看起来更干净。虽然出手速度看起来变慢了，显然他还在适应这些调整，而且在这段 23 场比赛中他场均 30 分钟仅出手 4.4 次三分。但考虑到他天生感手感，我相信随着他继续完善机械动作，莱利最终至少能成为一名合格的三分射手。
当投篮不准，或者当他在冲击篮筐时无法应对 NBA 级别的身体对抗时，莱利仍然会有表现糟糕的比赛。全明星赛前对阵克利夫兰的 12 投 1 中就是一例，还有 3 月 2 日对阵休斯顿火箭的 9 投 1 中，以及 3 月 12 日对阵奥兰多魔术的 10 投 3 中。当他表现不好时，看起来会非常糟糕，因为强壮的防守者可以贴身对抗，挡在他身前阻止他前进。
但总的来说，结果是伟大的，录像表现甚至更好。如果这一切都能融合在一起，你可以看到一个顶级侧翼进攻创造者的轮廓。莱利必须变得更强壮，投篮也必须更加稳定。毕竟，现实是每个 NBA 球员在任何一个夜晚都能拿到 15 到 20 分（例如里斯最近对阵犹他爵士拿下的 18 分 20 篮板）。优秀球员、伟大球员和全明星之间的区别在于能否夜以继日地打出这种表现，而不是一周仅有一两次。
但这段旅程的第一步通常始于闪光点，而莱利的闪光点是目前新秀中最吸引人的。在那段 21 场比赛中，他有 11 场得分超过 17 分，作为一名 6 英尺 9 英寸的创造者，他在手感、突破能力和跨步长度方面的天赋是其他球员所不具备的。我现在不会预测莱利未来一定会成为全明星，但基于我们所看到的一切，我不能完全排除这种上限。他现在离那个水平还很远，但通往那里的路径已经存在，而且他的进度超前了。我认为奇才队在 2025 年选秀中用 21 号签捡到了宝。
排名简评
• 艾奇库姆凭借其整体表现稳居第 3。由于保罗·乔治的禁赛、乔尔·恩比德的缺阵以及泰雷斯·马克西的指伤，他在过去几周被要求承担更大的角色。虽然投篮一直不准（过去 20 场比赛三分命中率仅为 29.1%），但他获得了宝贵的持球机会并被要求创造投篮。我认为他的控球水平还没有准备好在面对强队时承担这种责任，但他至少给了 76 人一个选择，并在面对犹他爵士、萨克拉门托国王、孟菲斯灰熊、布鲁克林篮网和波特兰开拓者等防守较弱的球队时取得了一些成功。我很期待看到当 76 人的球星们回归后，他重新回到副攻手的角色。
• 塞德里克·考沃德排名下降一位并非因为他打得不好，而纯粹是因为我认为哈珀在为一支争冠球队效力时表现得太出色了。自 11 月中旬以来，考沃德几乎首发了孟菲斯所有的比赛，防守稳健，甚至开始在进攻创造力上有所进步。我要指出的是，在经历了核弹级的火热投篮开局后，他在过去 41 场比赛中三分命中率仅为 29%。这并不是长期担忧，因为考沃德拥有完美的投篮机制。
• 目前最佳新秀第一阵容和第二阵容之间有一条清晰的分界线。克努佩尔、弗拉格、艾奇库姆、哈珀和考沃德显然是前五名。在他们之后，第二阵容的争夺非常激烈。我将马克西姆·雷诺 (Maxime Raynaud) 提升到了第 6 位，他在上次排名中仅位列第 12。上次我对他评价偏低了。我们现在拥有雷诺场均 13.2 分和 8.1 个篮板、投篮命中率 58% 的 52 场比赛样本。自从 1 月 30 日正式进入萨克拉门托国王的首发阵容以来，雷诺场均得到 16 分和 9 个篮板，投篮命中率高达 60.7%。令我惊讶的是，雷诺在选秀夜竟然掉到了第 42 顺位，考虑到我给他的评级是首轮末，他正在展示为什么他本该更早被选中。他显然是一个 NBA 轮换级别的内线，如果能改善防守直觉和角度利用，他还有更大的潜力。
艾斯·贝利进入 NBA 时就以得分手著称，他正不负众望。(Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images)
• 艾斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey) 上升至第 7 位，因为他继续在爵士队扮演高效得分手的角色。在过去的 29 场比赛中，贝利场均得到 16.6 分、5.1 个篮板和 2 次助攻，投篮命中率为 45%，三分命中率为 36%，罚球命中率为 82%。我依然很喜欢爵士队使用他的方式，基本上限制了他的运球，让他成为一名纯粹的得分武器和无球射手。虽然他还没有达到克努佩尔那种级别的射术，但他非常擅长空切和快攻。在未来的某个时刻，他需要在得分之外继续丰富自己的武器库，但有充分理由对贝利感到兴奋，他在这套体系中完全有能力场均砍下 20 分。
• 特雷·约翰逊也是如此，他排在第 9 位。伤愈复出后他的状态略有起伏，场均仅得到 11 分，命中率为 37%。但他之前 22 场比赛的表现令人印象深刻：场均 15 分，命中率 45%，三分命中率 41%，罚球命中率 93%。和贝利一样，约翰逊需要在防守端有所进步，但作为得分手，他让人充满期待。
• 德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen) 暂时排在第 8，因为他成功表现的持续时间比其他新秀更长。在 11 月 4 日到 1 月 18 日的 38 场比赛中，奎恩场均得到 13.5 分、8 个篮板和 5 次助攻，投篮命中率为 50%。自那以后，他场均仅得到 9.7 分、6 个篮板和 3 次助攻，命中率为 46%，自从锡安·威廉姆森和德章泰·穆雷完全康复后，他可能是新奥尔良鹈鹕轮换阵容中表现最差的球员。他的鹈鹕队友杰里迈亚·费尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears) 在过去 25 场比赛中表现更好，作为一名充满活力的防守者，他在细节上展现了更多的专注。在 1 月 23 日转入替补后他经历了一段适应期，但在过去的 16 场比赛中，费尔斯场均得到 13 分、4 个篮板和 4 次助攻，投篮命中率为 43%，三分命中率为 39%。如果费尔斯和奎恩继续保持目前的轨迹，我认为费尔斯在赛季结束时的排名会超过奎恩。但目前来看，奎恩的整体表现稍胜一筹。
• 默里-博伊尔斯受伤了，自 2 月 25 日以来一直没打球，所以考虑到第 6 到第 12 名之间竞争如此激烈，他的排名有所下滑。篮网队的叶戈尔·德明 (Egor Demin) 也是如此，他因脚伤赛季报销。因此，德明很可能无缘我心目中的最佳新秀第二阵容。瑞安·考克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner)、乌戈·冈萨雷斯 (Hugo Gonzalez) 和莱利是这份名单最后的新面孔。考克布伦纳和冈萨雷斯整个赛季都表现出色，作为强队中稳定的轮换球员，他们理应榜上有名。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA Rookie Rankings: Kon Knueppel, Cooper Flagg are staging an epic duel
NBA Rookie Rankings: Kon Knueppel, Cooper Flagg are staging an epic duel
This rookie class has been outstanding and looks likely to end up with quite a few NBA All-Stars. Former Duke teammates Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel continue to vie for Rookie of the Year honors. We’ll break down that race in more depth below, but the class beyond them is impressive.
Dylan Harper has emerged in a significant way over the last 25 games. Cedric Coward and VJ Edgecombe have been consistently valuable for their teams. Behind them, I think about 13 players have a fairly reasonable chance to end up with an All-Rookie case, including a few players who didn’t even make my top 15. These rookies and the 2026 NBA Draft class will likely end up refreshing talent across the league in a major way over the next few years.
A refresher on this exercise: We rank the league’s top 15 rookies, based on how they have played in the NBA thus far, not as a projection of who they will become. This is a full-season ranking, not based on “who is playing the best right now.”
What do I look for when I rank players? Minutes and roles matter. What is each rookie getting asked to do? How often are they seeing the court? Are they being asked to create offense? Is their role limited, and how successful are they in that role? How successful is the team with them within that role? What is the degree of difficulty of said role? Is the player logging major minutes on a good team or eating up minutes for a bad team?
This is an art, not a science. The rankings involve examining numbers and analyzing a painstaking amount of tape; I value the latter more.
Let’s dive in.
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | POINTS | REBOUNDS | ASSISTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kon Knueppel | Charlotte Hornets | 19.3 | 5.3 | 3.4 |
| 2 | Cooper Flagg | Dallas Mavericks | 20.1 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| 3 | VJ Edgecombe | Philadelphia 76ers | 15.3 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Dylan Harper | San Antonio Spurs | 11.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| 5 | Cedric Coward | Memphis Grizzlies | 13.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 |
| 6 | Maxime Raynaud | Sacramento Kings | 11.4 | 7.3 | 1.1 |
| 7 | Ace Bailey | Utah Jazz | 12.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 8 | Derik Queen | New Orleans Pelicans | 11.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 |
| 9 | Tre Johnson | Washington Wizards | 12.4 | 2.8 | 2 |
| 10 | Jeremiah Fears | New Orleans Pelicans | 13.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| 11 | Collin Murray-Boyles | Toronto Raptors | 7.8 | 5 | 2 |
| 12 | Egor Demin | Brooklyn Nets | 10.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 13 | Ryan Kalkbrenner | Charlotte Hornets | 7.9 | 5.8 | 0.8 |
| 14 | Hugo Gonzalez | Boston Celtics | 4 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 15 | Will Riley | Washington Wizards | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
Knueppel vs. Flagg is the best NBA awards race
In the most recent iteration of these rankings, I flipped Flagg ahead of Knueppel for the first time as the top-ranked rookie after an incredible run by Flagg with the Dallas Mavericks. In the nine games before those rankings were published, Flagg had averaged 27.4 points, eight rebounds and four assists and looked to be developing into the apex wing matchup hunter teams crave across the league. Almost immediately after that run, Flagg missed the Mavericks’ next eight games with a foot sprain. It took him a while to get back up to speed, as he averaged just 15.6 points per game on 35 percent shooting from the field in his first five games back.
But watch Flagg in his two games recently against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and you can easily get excited again. He dropped 25 points, four rebounds and five assists in the first game, then in the second led the Mavs to a surprise win with an absurd 27 points, six rebounds and 10 assists. I think it was the best game I’ve seen a rookie play all year outside of his monster 49-point performance against the Charlotte Hornets, as he pressed all the right buttons as a decision-maker while also playing high-level defense. He followed that up with a well-rounded 21-point, seven-rebound, eight-assist game against the New Orleans Pelicans as Dallas leans more toward him playing on the ball.
And yet, those eight games that Flagg missed and the five rough games upon his return were enough for me to push the ultra-consistent Knueppel back ahead of him for the top slot. The 6-foot-6 sniper continues to play tremendous basketball while helping to lead the Hornets on a charge toward the playoffs. The wild thing about Knueppel is that he just keeps getting better. Prior to three blowout wins this week where the Hornets were able to keep his minutes down, in his prior 13 games, he averaged 21.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists versus only 0.9 turnovers while shooting a hilarious 51.4 percent from the field, 45.6 percent from 3 on NINE attempts per game (!), and making 78 percent of his foul shots. While his 12 missed free throws in his last 16 games might ultimately cost him the first 50-40-90 season from a rookie who averaged at least 15 points per game in history, it can’t take away from a spectacular season.
Right now, I have Knueppel solidly ahead of Flagg as my Rookie of the Year pick, but it’s not so solid as to totally rule out a late Flagg surge. Ultimately, though, I think the issue that Flagg will run into is that Knueppel is also not slowing down. The Hornets and Charles Lee have figured out how to weaponize Knueppel in creative and fun ways.
There is a very real case that Knueppel is already the most versatile off-ball shooter in the league. He’ll fly off wide pindown screens into 3s from the top of the key. He’ll trail in transition and slow down to force defenders to pick up Hornets filling lanes toward the rim before popping up out of nowhere to catch a wide-open 3 on the break. They’ll use him in guard-to-guard screening actions where he’ll slip to the wing and create an open shot that way. His pump fake is lethal, and his basketball IQ for how to come off screens is even better. If he’s in a two-man game and his opposing player is denying him in a dribble handoff, he’ll simply flare off to the corner for an open shot. If his man is locking and trailing, he’ll fly full speed into a shot where he can quickly plant and fire off of the hop or off a 1-2 step. His footwork is elite, and it allows him to take advantage of whatever the defense gives him because he’s constantly on balance.
Being versatile matters in the NBA. Teams will figure out how to slow down your top option if that’s all you can do. The key is being able to counter what opposing teams present and having more answers to the test than the defense. Knueppel has a significant number of answers to every test, which is what makes him such a lethal offensive player. And it makes him my pick for Rookie of the Year with about three weeks left in the season.
Dylan Harper is showing why he was the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft. (Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)
The Harper leap is real
The San Antonio Spurs have brought No. 2 pick Dylan Harper along more slowly than some of the other high draft picks for a couple of reasons. First, he’s dealt with two separate injuries that held him back. In September, he had surgery on a partially torn ligament in his left thumb that held him out for a good portion of training camp and the preseason. He returned for the start of the Spurs’ season, put up double-digit points in each of the team’s first six games, but then suffered a left calf strain that held him out of competition for about three weeks.
In the middle of his time out, De’Aaron Fox returned for the Spurs, and it took the team time to figure out how to integrate Fox, Harper and Stephon Castle together into the rotation. San Antonio is loaded with depth in the backcourt and across the wings, and from mid-December through mid-January, it felt like Harper was often the odd man out. He averaged just 8.2 points per game on 39.7 percent shooting from the field and 22.4 percent from 3 over the team’s 22-game stretch from Dec. 13 until Jan. 25. He had good games, but his playing time was sporadic as the team figured out how to best utilize him.
After a loss to New Orleans on Jan. 25, though, everything changed. In Harper’s last 23 games, he’s been the best rookie in the league not named Flagg or Knueppel. He should be considered a shoo-in for first-team All-Rookie as long as this continues through the end of the year. He’s averaging 13.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists versus only 1.4 turnovers per game while shooting a 58.3 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from 3. Harper has also amped up what was already an impressive level of defensive play to comical levels, as he and Castle combine to make life miserable for opponents at the point of attack with their length, physicality and quickness.
That defensive side of the floor is lights out when Castle and Harper are roaming the perimeter in front of Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembanyama. Per Databallr, when Harper is out there with Wembanyama and without Castle, the team scores 122 points per 100 possessions and allows just 101. When it’s Castle out there with Wembanyama and without Harper, the team scores 122 points per 100 and allows 110. And when that trio is out there together? The Spurs are pummeling opponents to the tune of scoring 125.8 points per 100 possessions while only allowing a paltry 91.5. It’s a look into the future of exactly what general manager Brian Wright and the rest of the Spurs front office were envisioning when they drafted that trio in the top five of the last three drafts.
I’m not sure I’ve seen a more impressive guard as a driver enter the NBA since at least the 2020-21 season. If Harper had been drafted into another situation where he had free rein over the offense, I think the odds are high he’d be averaging over 20 points per game right now. He’s a downhill slaloming nightmare for teams in transition, using elite footwork and gathers in addition to his nearly 7-foot wingspan to get to the rim to finish. His ability to Eurostep around defenders while maintaining a semblance of power and grace is elite for his age, as you can watch here against the New York Knicks on March 1.
Harper is making about 60 percent of his half-court shot attempts at the rim and creating about three of them per game, a strong number given that he only plays about 22 minutes per night. But if you look at those last 20 games, he’s actually making an absurd 72 percent at the rim, which is essentially what you would expect from a center who’s dunking a significant portion of his shots. As the game has slowed down for Harper, he’s gotten more comfortable using different changes of speed and gathers to get where he needs to go.
The context here is important, too. The Spurs are immaculately spaced right now, with Mitch Johnson and the front office having built beautiful lineups that often feature at least three floor-spacers out there around Harper, with four of his five most common teammates over this run including Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Wembanyama and Fox. It’s sharp lineup management from Johnson to give Harper the kind of space and time that a rookie can often require to adjust to playing against professionals.
We’ve seen everything we need to from Harper this season to buy into him eventually turning into an All-Star guard. Knueppel has been unbelievable and clearly has had a better rookie season. But I’m not sure I wouldn’t still bet on Harper’s career turning out better. I think the world of Knueppel and have long believed people have wrongly doubted his upside. He’s also going to turn into an All-Star at some point. This is more of a statement on how high I think Harper’s ceiling is with his ability to pressure the rim and play at a fast pace while creating high-leverage shots. I might still take him at No. 2 if I had to re-draft the class right now. All Harper needs is a consistent pull-up jumper. If that comes, he’s going to be nearly unguardable.
Riley might be Wizards’ most interesting perimeter prospect
I’m an enormous fan of Tre Johnson, and Johnson ranks ahead of his fellow first-round pick Will Riley here because he’s played all season consistently for the Wizards. Johnson is an elite shooter and looks like a long-term starter for the Wizards who will only be helped by having Trae Young around to create shots.
But based on how quickly Riley has grown into his game over the last two months, I’m starting to wonder if Riley is the Wizards’ most intriguing long-term prospect on the perimeter, ahead of guys like Johnson, Kyshawn George, Bub Carrington and Bilal Coulibaly. Over Riley’s last 23 games, he’s averaging 14.5 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 46 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 77 percent from the line. But more than that, it’s the way he’s doing that is impressive.
It took me a while to come around on Riley as a prospect last year, largely because I was worried about how his slight frame and inconsistent jumper would hold up in the NBA. Riley has always had good touch, but the mechanics have been somewhat funky and led to him shooting low-trajectory-angle lasers toward the rim. But the reason I came around and had him ranked right in the range of where he was taken by the Wizards was his fearlessness as a driver. The biggest thing that stood out to me was that, despite his size — he’s listed at 6-9 and 180 pounds — Riley played in straight lines, driving toward the rim. His footwork and gathers were terrific, even as opposing players bumped him off his line.
That has held up so far in the NBA. He’s not overly quick, but he’s very flexible and can cover ground with his long strides. He creates angles that you don’t expect and then can counter those angles impressively. But the goal is to always find a straight line directly toward the rim as opposed to taking wide angles on his drives. Here’s a great example against a strong, physical defender in Desmond Bane. Look at how, as soon as he feels Bane slightly off his line going toward his right, Riley counters with a beautiful, between-the-legs crossover and then just drives directly toward the rim even as Bane works to recover.
NASTY work from Will
— Washington Wizards (@ WashWizards) March 4, 2026
Or even this one, which results in a beautiful dump-off pass. Riley sets up the Golden State Warriors’ Gui Santos with a quick dribble to his right before a spin back to his left to get on a straight line toward the rim, forcing the help over from Draymond Green before he finds the pass to Juju Reese. Even though Riley averaged just 2.2 assists per game last year at Illinois, he posted a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and showcased some positive flash passes off his drives that made you buy into what he was capable of in the NBA.
Will dime
— Washington Wizards (@ WashWizards) March 17, 2026
Beyond that, Riley’s 3-point jumper has undergone some serious work. He’s getting much more air under the ball, and the shot looks cleaner. The release looks slower as it’s clear he’s still working his way into some of these adjustments, and he’s only taking 4.4 3-point attempts per game in 30 minutes per night in this 23-game stretch. But given his natural touch levels, I believe in Riley at some point becoming at least a passable 3-point shooter as he continues to work through his mechanical tweaks.
Riley still has games that are abject disasters when shots aren’t falling, or when he struggles to deal with the physicality of NBA players on his forays to the rim. His 1-of-12 game against Cleveland before the All-Star break is one example, as is the 1-of-9 game against the Houston Rockets on March 2, and the 3-of-10 game he posted against the Orlando Magic on March 12. When it’s bad, it looks really bad because solid defenders can body up, get their chest in front and stop him from going anywhere.
But by and large, the results look great, and the film looks even better. You can see the outlines of a serious wing shot creator if this all comes together. Riley will have to get stronger, and the shot is going to have to come together for him to become consistent. After all, the reality is that every NBA player can score 15 to 20 points on any given night (for example, Reese’s 18-point, 20-rebound game recently against the Utah Jazz). The difference between a good player, a great player and an All-Star is the ability to string together those performances night after night versus just once or twice a week.
But the first step along that journey often comes with flashes, and Riley’s flashes are among the most intriguing in the rookie class right now. He’s posted 11 games over 17 points in that 21-game run, and has tools as a 6-9 creator in terms of his touch, driving ability and stride length that other players simply don’t have. I wouldn’t project Riley’s future to be an All-Star right now, but I can’t totally rule out that ceiling based on what we’ve seen. He’s nowhere near that level yet, but the pathway exists for him to reach it, and he’s ahead of schedule. I think the Wizards got a real steal at No. 21 in the 2025 draft.
Ranking notes
• Edgecombe stays at No. 3 for his sheer body of work. He’s been asked to step into an even larger role over the last few weeks due to Paul George’s suspension, Joel Embiid’s absence and Tyrese Maxey’s finger injury. While the shot hasn’t been falling (he’s made only 29.1 percent of his 3s in his last 20 games), he’s getting valuable reps on the ball and being asked to create shots. I don’t think his handle is quite ready for that kind of role and responsibility yet against good teams, but he’s at least given the Sixers an option and had some success against defensively challenged teams like the Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies, Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers. I’m excited to see him slot back into his secondary role once the Sixers get their stars back into the mix.
• Cedric Coward slips one slot here through no issue of his own play, but simply because I think Harper has been that good while playing for a contending team. Coward has started nearly all of Memphis’ games since mid-November, plays solid defense and has started to even improve a bit as a shot creator. I’ll note that after Coward’s nuclear hot shooting start, he’s only made 29 percent of his 3s in his last 41 games. This isn’t a long-term worry, as Coward has pristine shot mechanics.
• There is a clear line in the sand right now between first-team All-Rookie and second-team All-Rookie. Knueppel, Flagg, Edgecombe, Harper and Coward are clearly the top-five guys. After them, it’s a free-for-all for the second team. I’ve spiked Maxime Raynaud up to No. 6 after he was ranked 12th in the last iteration. I was too low on him in the last ranking set. We now have a sustained 52-game sample of Raynaud averaging 13.2 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting 58 percent from the field. And since moving into the Sacramento Kings’ starting lineup full-time on Jan. 30, Raynaud has averaged 16 points and nine rebounds while shooting 60.7 percent from the field. It was pretty staggering to me that Raynaud fell all the way to No. 42 on draft night, given that I had a late first-round grade on him, and he’s showcasing why he should have gone earlier. He’s clearly an NBA rotational big with upside for more beyond that if he can work on his instincts and use of angles on defense.
Ace Bailey came into the NBA with a reputation as a big-time scorer, and he’s living up to that. (Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images)
• Ace Bailey moves up to No. 7 because he continues to play well as a scorer for the Jazz. Over his last 29 games, Bailey is averaging 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and two assists while shooting 45 percent from the field, 36 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. I love the way the Jazz utilize him still, essentially limiting his dribbles and making him a weapon as a scorer and off-ball shooter. He’s not quite the level shooter someone like Knueppel is, but he does a good job of cutting off actions and getting out in transition. At some point, he’s going to need to keep adding to his game beyond the scoring aspect, but there is a lot of reason to be excited about Bailey as an off-ball scorer who could very easily average 20 points per game in this scheme.
• The same goes for Tre Johnson, who comes in a couple spots lower at No. 9. He’s been a bit off since returning from injury, averaging just 11 points on 37 percent from the field. But his extended 22-game run before that was impressive; he averaged 15 points per game on 45 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3 and 93 percent from the line. Like Bailey, Johnson will need to improve on defense at some point, but as a scorer, there is a lot of reason for enthusiasm.
• Derik Queen sticks at No. 8 for now because his run of successful play was a bit longer and more sustained than the other rookies so far. Over 38 games from Nov. 4 to Jan. 18, Queen averaged 13.5 points, eight rebounds and five assists while shooting 50 percent from the field. Since that point, he’s averaged just 9.7 points, six rebounds and three assists while shooting 46 percent from the field, and he has probably been the worst New Orleans Pelicans’ rotational player since Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray have been fully healthy. Fellow Pelicans rookie Jeremiah Fears has been a bit better over the last 25 games, showing an increased attention to detail as an energetic defender. It took a bit of an adjustment after moving to the bench on Jan. 23, but over his last 16 games, Fears is averaging 13 points, four rebounds and four assists while shooting 43 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3. If Fears and Queen continue along their current trajectories, I think Fears will pass Queen in these rankings at the end of the season. But for now, Queen’s body of work is just a touch better.
• Murray-Boyles has been injured and hasn’t played since Feb. 25, so he slides back a few slots given how tightly bunched that No. 6 to No. 12 range was last time. The same goes for the Nets’ Egor Demin, whose season is over after a foot injury. Demin will fall short of being second-team All-Rookie for me, in all likelihood, because of that. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hugo Gonzalez and Riley are the last additions here. Kalkbrenner and Gonzalez have been excellent throughout the season and are worthy of being listed for holding down rotation spots on winners the whole year.
By Sam Vecenie, via The Athletic