By Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-03-20 20:00:00
90.4%。这就是当时的胜率。昨晚的比赛还剩1分01秒时，随着德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 的又记三分球弹筐而出，菲尼克斯太阳队拥有90.4%的获胜概率。
大约三分钟前，他们的胜率曾达到93.2%的峰值。在那一时刻，太阳队手握10分的领先优势。而马刺队当时的三分命中率不足30%，在比赛末段的逆转战中，这通常是一个令人绝望的阻碍。
然而，这就是概率的奇妙之处。无论从概念还是现实角度来看，概率都是一件非常、非常荒诞的事情。这是我大学统计学教授在第一堂课上就给我留下的深刻印象。
“我要明确一点：统计数据并非事实。数字是事实，数学是事实，而统计数据是试图用数字来描述和量化我们称之为‘生活’的东西。概率则是试图用数学来预测它。如果没有语境，两者都毫无用处。如果你忽略语境，你就别想过我的课。”
直到今天，那依然是我经历过的最精彩的两场开场白之一。我本不想修统计学，但我还需要一个数学学分，而且我拼命想避开微积分。那位教授在头五分钟里就让我彻底着迷了，那种方式只有伟大的教师才能做到。在那一节课里，我学到的东西比我一辈子的数学课还要多。
诚然，我提到的这位绅士性格古怪且讲究，他会自带一个绰号为“伯莎”的超大号橡皮擦来上课，但我始终惊讶于那句话在现实中竟能如此广泛地适用。
问题在于，那90.4%的胜率忽略了很多东西。在那三分钟里，马刺队在攻防两端都已火力全开。它忽略了德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 在进攻端已经进入了杀神模式，也忽略了他和瓦塞尔突然以一种足以让“窒息防守大师”斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 感到自豪的凶悍劲头，挫败了菲尼克斯的后卫群。
它忽略了马刺队已经将篮板球拼抢提升到了某种程度，以至于他们拒绝给太阳队任何二次进攻得分的机会（在理所应当的喧嚣中，人们忽略了圣安东尼奥在第四节抢下了15个篮板，超过了他们全场总数的三分之一），并且通过进攻篮板为自己赢得了额外的进攻回合。
它忽略了比赛中势头的牵引力——太阳队在防守端突然变得手忙脚乱，而马刺队则像被逼入绝境的野兽一样，为了每一个微小的优势而疯狂撕咬。那种显而易见的信心转变，以及掩盖在局势之下的冷静。
马刺队的表现就像他们曾经经历过这种场面一样，因为他们整个赛季确实都在经历；而菲尼克斯太阳队显然背负了巨大的压力。但这些都不会被计入概率，只有数字会被计入。而数字，无论多么真实，都可能产生误导。
你可能觉得我们现在应该已经吸取教训了，但人类对概率有着迷之依赖。它让我们感到安全，仿佛宇宙的混沌可以被数字秩序所包容和表达。
我们相信计算出的风险会保护我们，就像某种怪异的数学虔诚图腾。我们被股票交易所波动的狂喜与恐怖所鼓舞或威慑。我们赋予不同人群的分数比例民调以过高的价值。我们生活在一个几乎任何事情都有预测市场的时代。
借用散文家、前漫画家蒂姆·克雷德 (Tim Kreider) 非常贴切的话来说，我们什么也没学到。
而唯一似乎能带给我们更多快乐的事情，就是打破这些概率。
我们拥有一大堆博彩网站和相关的成瘾行为可以证明这一点。我们就是无法抗拒它。就像我们似乎相信概率构成了自然秩序的法则一样，我们也似乎相信克服这些概率就构成了对这些法则的胜利。我怀疑我们只是缺乏语境。
韩·索罗 (Han Solo) 的那句台词之所以听起来如此真实是有原因的。概率几乎毫无用处，概率瞬息万变，概率并非事物本身。以概率为准绳并不是一种健康的生活方式。
然而，谁能否定一场看似不可能的逆转所带来的巨大快感呢？我也不能免俗，这就是为什么在比赛最后几分钟流逝时，我根本无法安坐。
我在餐厅里走来走去，就像80年代的股票经纪人吸了点“魔鬼皮屑” (the devil’s dandruff)一样，全身感觉就像一根裸露的神经，而我仅仅只是在看球而已！
我看着德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 鬼使神差地投丢了一个几乎肯定能锁定胜局的三分球。
我看着德阿隆·福克斯完成了一记挑篮，这肯定让远在某处的乔治·格文 (George Gervin) 露出了微笑。
我看着卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 抢下了全场比赛最关键的一个篮板。
我还看着维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)——这位始终以团队为重的球员，终于决定亲自接管比赛，开启了那种自职业生涯开启以来他就一直在耐心压抑的杀手本能传奇。
他让概率看起来像个笑话。有时候，被提醒概率本身就是笑话，这种感觉真好。
总结
- 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的进攻篮板领跑全队。我重复一遍，圣安东尼奥的这位新秀替补后卫在进攻篮板上领跑全队，其中一个还出现在关键时刻！当我说这支球队有无数种赢球方式时，我指的就是这个。话虽如此，马刺替补席的进攻篮板是首发阵容的两倍，这确实有点令人担忧。太阳队并不是一支体型巨大的球队，但他们在第四节之前在篮板上完爆马刺，以至于我都准备好把整篇报道的主题都放在这个问题上了。如果马刺无法拿回球权或控制住自己的打铁，文班在低位的防守威慑力或进攻破坏力都将变得无关紧要。根据对阵情况的不同，这可能会成为季后赛的致命伤。我希望不会，但如果休赛期除了投篮之外还有什么需要关注的，那就是篮板。篮板是篮球运动的脊梁，这是有原因的，尽管当马刺的三分命中率高于29%时，它的重要性确实会降低。
- 文班凭借防守端的统治力让第四节发生的一切成为可能，但如果没有德阿隆·福克斯在第四节砍下的14分，这一切都毫无意义。福克斯在上半场确实表现挣扎，而且他在过去十场比赛中的三分命中率仅为31%，这远非理想状态，但他在球队最需要的时候变身为任何角色的能力怎么强调都不为过。这种有时需要主动退居幕后的全能性并不会带来太多荣耀，但这又是马刺前辈们那种无私精神的延续。事实上，这可能是一个依然能打出华丽数据的球员自“海军上将” (The Admiral) 大卫·罗宾逊 (David Robinson) 以来最无私的升华。马刺本赛季可能会赢下60场比赛，如果没有福克斯，这绝无可能。
- 看到那记挑篮感觉格外亲切，就在前一天，芝加哥熊队的四分卫凯莱布·威廉姆斯 (Caleb Williams) 决定为“冰人 (The Iceman)”这个绰号提交商标申请。我知道格文并不是唯一使用过这个绰号的球员，但我通常不喜欢运动员尝试做这种事情。绰号是球迷的馈赠，请相应地对待它。据我所知，乔治·格文一直都是这么做的。
- 朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 展现了蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 曾经经常展现的那种特质：他极其关键，以至于你几乎必须查看技术统计表才能意识到他的影响力有多大。他悄无声息地无处不在，盖帽全队第一，投中三分，并根据需要换防任何人。这种无缝衔接的特质总是被低估，但能以每年300万美元的价格获得与瓦塞尔（实际上他在 VORP、BPM 和胜利贡献值上都领先于瓦塞尔）相近的贡献质量，简直不可思议。如果马刺不续约他，我会感到震惊。
结束曲 —— 今晚的主题曲：
Young The Giant 乐队的 Superpostion
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：What we learned from the Spurs win over the Suns
What we learned from the Spurs win over the Suns
90.4 percent. Those were the odds. The Phoenix Suns had a 90.4 percent chance of winning last night’s game with 1:01 left on the game clock, as Devin Vassell clanged yet another three-pointer off of the rim.
Approximately three minutes earlier, their odds had peaked at 93.2 percent. The Suns had themselves a ten-point lead at that juncture. The Spurs were shooting less than 30% from beyond the arc, usually a grim hindrance when it comes to late game comebacks.
That’s the thing about probability, though. Probability is, both conceptually and realistically, a silly, silly thing. This was impressed upon me by my college statistics professor in our very first class.
“I want to be clear about this; statistics are not facts. Numbers are factual. Math is factual. Statistics are an attempt to numerically describe and quantify the thing we call life. Probability is an attempt to mathematically predict it. Both are useless without context. If you ignore context, you will fail my class.”
That is, to this day, one of the two greatest openings to a class that I’ve ever experienced. I did not want to take statistics. I needed one more math credit, and I was trying desperately to avoid calculus. The professor had me hook, line, and sinker in the first five minutes, in the way that only great teachers can, and I learned more in that one class than I had in a lifetime of math courses.
Granted, I’m referencing a gentleman eccentric and particular enough to bring his own oversized eraser to class that he had nicknamed ‘Bertha’, but I am perpetually amazed by how endlessly applicable that statement continues to be.
The thing is, that 90.4% chance was ignoring a lot. In those three minutes, the Spurs had ignited on both ends. It was ignoring that De’Aaron Fox had gone on an absolute tear on the offensive end, and that he and Devin Vassell were suddenly thwarting Phoenix’s guards with a ferocity that would have made suffocation maestro Stephon Castle proud.
It was ignoring that the Spurs had turned up their rebounding to such an extent that they were denying the Suns any opportunity for second-chance points (lost in the justifiable hubbub was the fact that San Antonio had 15 rebounds in the 4th quarter, over 1/3 of their total for the entire game) and were giving themselves extra possessions on the offensive boards.
It was ignoring the pull of momentum in a game where the Suns were suddenly scrambling on defense, and the Spurs were clawing for any and every advantage with the ferocity of a cornered wild animal. The visible shift in confidence. The calm that belied the situation.
The Spurs were acting like they’d been there before, because they had, all season long. And the Phoenix Suns were visibly pressing. But that doesn’t factor into probability. Only the numbers do. And the numbers, however true, can be misleading.
You think we’d have learned that by now, but human beings are addicted to probability. It makes us feel safe, as though the chaos of the universe could be contained and expressed by numerical order.
We believe that the calculated risk will protect us, like some bizarre totem of mathematical piety. We’re emboldened and cowed by the ecstasy and terror of fluctuations in a stock exchange. We assign outsized value to the fractional polling of diverse populations. We live in an era where there’s a prediction market for practically everything.
To borrow the very apt words of essayist and onetime cartoonist, Tim Kreider, we learn nothing.
And the only thing that seems to give us more pleasure, is bucking those very same odds.
We have a whole host of gambling websites and related addictions that testify to it. We simply cannot resist it. In the same way that we seem to believe that probability constitutes the laws of natural order, we seem to also believe that overcoming those odds constitutes a victory over those very same laws. I suspect we’re just lacking context.
There’s a reason that Han Solo line rings so true. The odds are next to useless. The odds are ever changing. The odds are not the thing itself. It’s just not a healthy way to live.
And yet, who can deny the incredible rush of an improbable comeback? I’m no more exempt from the thrill than anyone else, which is why I couldn’t bear to be seated as the final minutes of the game ticked away.
Pacing in my dining room like 1980’s stockbroker after a couple lines of the devil’s dandruff, my whole body felt like one raw nerve, and I was just watching!
I watched as Devin Booker improbably whiffed on three-pointer that would have almost certainly put the game away.
I watched as De’Aaron Fox dropped a finger roll that surely left George Gervin smiling somewhere.
I watched as Luke Kornet pulled down the single most important rebound of the game.
And I watched as Victor Wembanyama, ever the team player, finally called his own number and kick-started the legend of the killer instinct that’s he’s been patiently containing from the start of his career.
He makes probabilities look silly. And sometimes it’s just nice to be reminded that that’s exactly what they are.
Takeaways
- Dylan Harper led the team in offensive rebounds. I repeat, San Antonio’s rookie bench guard led the team on the offensive boards, and one of those came in clutch time! When I say that this team has the ability to win in an incredible number of ways, this is what I mean. That being said, it is a little concerning that the Spurs’ bench doubled the offensive rebounding of the starting unit. The Suns are not the biggest team, and they were out-rebounding the Spurs so badly by the 4th quarter that I was already prepared for my entire write-up to be centered around exactly that issue. Wemby’s ability to deny access to/do damage in the post is not going to matter if the Spurs can’t get the ball back, or corral their own misses. This could be a fatal flaw in the postseason depending on the match-up. I’m hoping it won’t be, but if there’s one thing outside of shooting that needs attention in the off-season, it’s rebounding. It’s the backbone of good basketball for a reason, although it certainly matters less when the Spurs are shooting better than 29% from long-distance.
- Wemby made almost everything that happened in the fourth possible through defensive prowess, but without Fox’s 14 points in the fourth, none of it would have mattered. Fox had an admittedly creaky first-half, and he’s shooting just 31% from three over the last ten games, which is far from ideal, but his ability to become just about whatever the team needs when they need it most cannot be overstated. There’s not a lot of glory to be in had the kind of versatility that sometimes requires willingly taking a step back, but this is yet another act of selflessness in the manner of prominent Spurs before him. In fact, it might be the most selfless sublimation from a player who can still put up numbers since The Admiral himself. The Spurs might win 60 games this season. No chance they do it without Fox.
- The finger roll was particularly sweet to see the day after Chicago Bears Quarterback Caleb Williams decided to submit a trademark application for the moniker of ‘The Iceman’. I understand that Gervin’s not the only player to ever go by that nickname, but I just generally do not like it when athletes try to do this sort of this thing. The nickname is a gift from the fans. Treat it accordingly. To my knowledge, George Gervin always has.
- Julian Champagnie did that thing that Tim Duncan used to do so much, where he was incredibly vital and you almost had to look at the box score to realize how impactful he was. He was quietly everywhere, leading the team in blocks, knocking down his three, and switching onto whoever the situation called for. That kind of seamlessness is always underrated, but to be getting close to the same quality of contribution as you get from Devin Vassell (who he’s actually leading in VORP, BPM, and Win Shares) for 3 million a year is unfathomable. If the Spurs don’t extend him, I’ll be shocked.
Playing You Out – The Theme Song of the Evening:
Superpostion by Young The Giant
By Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock