By Zach Harper | The Athletic, 2026-03-16 13:53:39
每周一，我们都会为您带来 NBA 的最新动态。本周，NCAA 锦标赛（疯狂三月）正式开打。这意味着 NBA 球队之所以选择摆烂的“理由”将得到全方位展示。此外，鉴于目前排名形势异常胶着，季后赛种子的排位在本周可能会发生重大变化。
我们还准备了“NBA 股市报告”的扩展版，这是《The Bounce》专栏每周一的固定项目。那是我们为您提供的免费 NBA 每日通讯，您可以订阅并直接在收件箱中查收。
重磅头条：锦标赛时间到！
“疯狂三月”将于周四正式拉开帷幕！严格来说，它周二和周三就通过“最初四强赛 (First Four)”开始了。但真正能让我们大饱眼福，并迅速让大家的预测表（Brackets）化为乌有的比赛日是周四。与上赛季非常相似，今年的锦标赛充满了天才 NBA 选秀热门，各支球队为了他们不惜疯狂摆烂。由于 2027 和 2028 年的选秀预期并不理想，今年更有理由关注锦标赛。因为未来几年看起来并不会有更多强援出现，NBA 球队将把目光集中在这些近在眼前的未来救星身上。
让我们快速浏览一下每个赛区的顶级选秀热门。一如既往，别忘了在 山姆·威瑟尼 (Sam Vecenie) 最新的模拟选秀 中查看这些球员。
东部赛区 (East Region)
杜克大学的卡梅隆·布泽尔 (Cameron Boozer) 和帕特里克·恩贡巴二世 (Patrick Ngongba II)： 显而易见，卡梅隆·布泽尔是杜克大学的头号球星，但帕特里克·恩贡巴二世也有机会大放异彩。威瑟尼将其视为前 20 顺位的人选，一次深入的锦标赛之旅可能会巩固这位 6 英尺 11 英寸中锋的地位。恩贡巴二世因右脚伤势错过了 ACC 锦标赛，但希望本周能康复。至于布泽尔，球探们希望看到他命中三分、传导球以及在攻防两端统治比赛的能力。不过，他已经稳居前三顺位了。
堪萨斯大学的达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)： 达林·彼得森能打多久？这个问题整个赛季都萦绕在这位 6 英尺 6 英寸的后卫身边，尽管他在处理完汉密尔顿肌腱伤势和抽筋问题后，在捷鹰队最近的七场比赛中每场至少出战了 28 分钟。他会做任何损害身价的事吗？不会。他能做些什么来提升身价吗？如果能接管比赛并带领球队打入最终四强，他可能会成为状元秀。
路易斯维尔大学的小迈克尔·布朗 (Mikel Brown Jr)： 小迈克尔·布朗绝对是选秀前十的热门，球探们希望看到这位 6 英尺 5 英寸的后卫做好两件事：1. 保护好球权。2. 命中三分。他们还想看到他上场比赛；他因背部伤势缺席了 ACC 锦标赛，本赛季一直打打停停。
康涅狄格大学的布雷隆·马林斯 (Braylon Mullins) 和亚历克斯·卡拉班 (Alex Karaban)： 布雷隆·马林斯预计在选秀前 20 顺位，而亚历克斯·卡拉班则是次轮初期的人选。这两人传球都不多，看起来也不像是能接管比赛的球员。但这支康大拥有深厚底蕴，若能走得更远，对他们两人都有好处。
中西部赛区 (Midwest Region)
密歇根大学的亚克塞尔·兰德伯格 (Yaxel Lendeborg)、小莫雷兹·约翰逊 (Morez Johnson Jr.) 和阿代·马拉 (Aday Mara)： 这三名球员预计都会在首轮后半段被选中。我很好奇 23 岁的兰德伯格能否凭借出色表现吸引那些处于首轮中段、急需即战力球员的球队。
爱荷华州立大学的约书亚·杰斐逊 (Joshua Jefferson)： 旋风队这位稳健的组织前锋预计在首轮末或次轮初被选中。球探们希望看到他提高外线投射，但这无法通过一次锦标赛就彻底解决。
阿拉巴马大学的小拉巴伦·菲隆 (Labaron Philon Jr.) 和阿马里·艾伦 (Amari Allen)： 阿马里·艾伦如果打出精彩的锦标赛表现，身价可能会大幅提升。我们中的许多人都期待小拉巴伦·菲隆能奉献表演，并带领阿拉巴马大学走得更远。他得分和投射能力出众，但他能否在个人进攻之外带领红潮队前进？
德州理工大学的小克里斯蒂安·安德森 (Christian Anderson Jr.)： 他可能是本届选秀中最好的射手，本赛季小克里斯蒂安·安德森的助攻数增长了三倍多。我们可能会在第二轮看到他和菲隆的精彩对决。安德森预计在 20 多顺位被选中，但一次强势表现可能让他冲向乐透区。
田纳西大学的内特·阿门特 (Nate Ament)： 内特·阿门特可以做很多事情来提升选秀行情，他基本上已经锁定了前十名。然而，他一直受困于右踝扭伤。也许他做得还不足以让球探认为他优于北卡罗来纳大学的凯莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson)——后者因拇指伤势无缘锦标赛——但阿门特依然值得关注。
南部赛区 (South Region)
佛罗里达大学的托马斯·霍夫 (Thomas Haugh) 和鲁本·奇涅卢 (Rueben Chinyelu)： 威瑟尼将 6 英尺 9 英寸的全能前锋托马斯·霍夫排在第 13 位，而 6 英尺 10 英寸的鲁本·奇涅卢则是次轮初的人选。他们可以带领短吻鳄队打出深度季后赛表现。
休斯顿大学的金斯顿·弗莱明斯 (Kingston Flemings) 和小克里斯·塞纳克 (Chris Cenac Jr.)： 大家都准备好观看金斯顿·弗莱明斯的表演了。拥有小克里斯·塞纳克这样一名极具威胁的大个子会有所帮助。弗莱明斯可能会在 16 强赛中与我们的下一位热门新秀展开巅峰对决，大家都期待这位 6 英尺 4 英寸的后卫能以此巩固自己前五顺位的地位。
伊利诺伊大学的基顿·瓦格勒 (Keaton Wagler)： 基顿·瓦格勒是一名拥有致命跳投的顶级得分手，他也能参与组织。如果能在 16 强赛与弗莱明斯交手，那将是一场精彩绝伦的较量。在威瑟尼的预测中，瓦格勒排名第 6 位。
范德堡大学的泰勒·坦纳 (Tyler Tanner)： 泰勒·坦纳是一名身材受限但弹跳惊人的控卫。在锦标赛的某个时刻，他肯定会贡献出最精彩的五佳球瞬间，但他能否借此稳固首轮秀的身份？
北卡罗来纳大学的亨利·维萨尔 (Henri Veesaar)： 随着威尔逊的出局，焦油脚队最值得关注的球员是预计在次轮初被选中的亨利·维萨尔。他度过了一个伟大的赛季，但他在更高水平的联赛中真的能成为空间型大个子吗？
爱荷华大学的本内特·斯蒂尔茨 (Bennett Stirtz)： 去年他在德雷克大学的锦标赛中表现出色，而作为预计的首轮中段秀，本内特·斯蒂尔茨可以通过爆发的投射表现带领爱荷华大学前进。
西部赛区 (West Region)
亚利桑那大学的布雷登·伯里斯 (Brayden Burries)、科阿·皮特 (Koa Peat) 和莫蒂尤斯·克里瓦斯 (Motiejus Krivas)： 布雷登·伯里斯和科阿·皮特预计分列选秀第 10 和 第 11 位，因此野猫队火力充沛。皮特是一名强力侧翼/前锋，而伯里斯是一名得分型后卫。身材魁梧的大个子莫蒂尤斯·克里瓦斯也有很多需要证明的东西，他正处于首轮边缘，一次强势的锦标赛表现可以帮他锁定席位。
阿肯色大学的小达柳斯·阿库夫 (Darius Acuff Jr.)： 这是我在这届选秀中最喜欢的球员之一！作为核心后卫他无所不能，拥有出色的三分投射，并有能力带领阿肯色大学冲向最终四强。他预计是前十级别的球员，没有理由相信他会掉链子。
杨百翰大学的 AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa)： 显而易见，AJ·迪班萨是这里最具星味的潜在巨星。无论锦标赛结果如何，他可能已经做得足够多，足以锁定状元秀席位。但我们仍然希望看到他像卡梅隆·安东尼那样在锦标赛中所向披靡。
德克萨斯大学的戴林·斯温 (Dailyn Swain)： 他各方面都会一点，但球探们希望看到他展现出稳定的外线投射。他和长角牛队将在周二晚上的“最初四强赛”中对阵北卡州立大学。
NBA 股市报告（扩展版）
洛杉矶湖人 (42胜25负)。 湖人队已经取得五连胜，这是西部目前仅次于俄克拉荷马城雷霆队（八连胜）的第二长连胜。湖人现在的状态好到让人怀疑他们是否真的找到了赢球密码。在这波连胜中，他们击败了纽约尼克斯队、明尼苏达森林狼队和丹佛掘金队。还记得他们多年来对阵掘金时的无力吗？湖人本赛季对阵丹佛取得了 2-1 的领先，从而拿到了可能的平分优势。
洛杉矶在最近九场比赛中赢下了八场。得益于顶级的投篮表现和低失误率，他们在此期间拥有全联盟第三好的进攻。防守端也排进了前八，这不仅仅是因为对手实力弱。湖人限制住了纽约和明尼苏达。由卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)、奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)、德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton)、马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 组成的阵容在防守端表现稳健。
密尔沃基雄鹿 (28胜39负)。 虽然他们击败了印第安纳步行者队从而终止了四连败，但雄鹿队目前的处境非常糟糕。他们在过去 10 场比赛中仅取得 2 胜 8 负，而那两场胜利分别来自于摆烂的犹他爵士队和步行者队。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 出战了其中的六场，但在那六场比赛中，密尔沃基总共净负 20 分。扬尼斯在场均 27 分钟内能贡献 25.6 分、8.5 个篮板和 4.6 次助攻，命中率高达 53.1%。然而，在那六场比赛中，雄鹿队的净胜分分别是 -16、-24、+23、-12、-8 和 +17。他们甚至无法在他上场的时间里稳定保持领先。
雄鹿队目前落后东部第 10 名夏洛特黄蜂队 5.5 个胜场，仅领先摆烂的芝加哥公牛队 1 个胜场。此外，扬尼斯在周日击败步行者队的比赛中落地姿势尴尬，膝盖可能再次出现问题。密尔沃基现在进攻糟糕，防守也糟糕，而且他们目前无法发挥出最强武器的威力。
奥兰多魔术 (36胜29负)。 魔术队真的开窍了吗？感觉这个起伏不定的赛季让我们在好几个不同阶段都提出过这个问题。但这波七连胜是他们目前为止最长的连胜。连胜期间的三场胜利来自于击败森林狼、克利夫兰骑士和迈阿密热火。他们赢下了该赢的比赛，即使击败达拉斯独行侠和华盛顿奇才的过程有些惊险。在比赛末尾顶住压力对奥兰多来说至关重要，因为他们正试图为季后赛积攒势头。
别忘了，魔术队是在缺少弗兰茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 的情况下做到这一点的。但保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 在连胜期间大部分时间表现出色。他得到了杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs)、特里斯坦·达·席尔瓦 (Tristan de Silva)、温德尔·卡特 (Wendell Carter Jr.) 和杰特·霍华德 (Jett Howard) 的鼎力相助。角色球员能投中三分对他们意义重大，因为他们确实在远投方面很挣扎。但魔术队重新找回防守身份是非常令人振奋的。这并非源于赌博式防守，他们没有强行追求高失误率，只是不断干扰投篮并保护好篮板。这可能会成为一支季后赛谁都不想碰的球队。
金州勇士 (32胜35负)。 勇士队的挣扎合情合理，因为斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 自 1 月 30 日以来就没打过球。在那之后，勇士队的战绩为 5 胜 12 负。他们在过去八场比赛中输掉了七场，而且仍然不知道本赛季库里是否还能复出。他的回归日期不断被推迟，球队甚至考虑过如果到了某个节点，就让他赛季报销。对于一名 38 岁、极其依赖跑动且患有膝伤的球员来说，这并不理想。吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 因 ACL 撕裂赛季报销，因此一旦到了 4 月，金州勇士队的赛季可能很快就会结束。
在库里缺阵期间，勇士队的攻防两端都排在联盟后十。这是一种集体式的进攻表现；摩西·穆迪 (Moses Moody)、德安东尼·梅尔顿 (De’Anthony Melton)、盖·桑托斯 (Gui Santos) 和布兰登·波杰姆斯基 (Brandin Podziemski) 场均贡献 15 分或更多，领跑全队。但没有人能站出来接管比赛并说：“把球给我。”除非勇士队在赛季剩余时间签下《飞狗巴迪》(Air Bud)，否则很难看到这支球队创造什么奇迹。
杰林·威廉姆斯 (Jaylin Williams) 的外线投射。 似乎雷霆队还不够可怕，现在他们的替补内线变成了一名神射手。职业生涯至今，杰林·威廉姆斯的三分命中率为 38.1%。在他职业生涯的前三个赛季，他场均尝试约 2.5 次三分，命中率为 39%。这很不错，但还不至于像德克·诺维茨基 (Dirk Nowitzki)。本赛季开局阶段，威廉姆斯陷入了严重的投篮荒。在最初的 34 场比赛中，他场均尝试 3.6 次三分，命中率仅为 29.8%。但自 2 月初以来，威廉姆斯手感滚烫。
他场均尝试接近 5 次三分（4.9 次），命中率高达 45.7%。威廉姆斯在这段时间里有几次亮眼的得分表现，他在外线投篮或在进攻端施加影响力时毫不犹豫。威廉姆斯以这种方式拉开空间，为俄克拉荷马城增添了更多进攻火力。而且他具备对抗尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 这类球员的体型，这让他的三分球价值更高。
明尼苏达森林狼 (41胜27负)。 在九场比赛赢下八场后，森林狼队在过去五场比赛中输掉了四场。他们曾短暂攀升至西部第三，现在掉到了第六，仅领先菲尼克斯太阳队 1.5 个胜场。森林狼在艰难击败失去库里的勇士后，接连输给了奥兰多、两支洛杉矶球队以及雷霆。这绝不是森林狼希望在常规赛结束前不到一个月表现出的状态。他们的防守被彻底打穿，进攻也顶多算平庸。
朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 在周日输给雷霆的比赛中找回状态前非常挣扎。纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 现在投不进三分。唐特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 和杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels) 手感冰凉。明尼苏达一直在失误，三分投不进。安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 也没能扛起球队，尽管他的数据看起来还行。进攻可以起伏，但防守可能才是最令人担心的。森林狼犯规太多，无法制造失误，并且丢掉了大量的二次进攻机会。
亚特兰大老鹰 (36胜31负)。 老鹰队已经取得了九连胜。令人荒谬的是，即便如此，他们依然只排在东部第八。他们在胜率超过五成的过程中成功反超了费城 76 人队，但仍落后迈阿密 1.5 个胜场。这是老鹰队自 2014-2015 赛季创下 19 连胜以来的最长连胜。你要追溯到 1997 年才能找到他们另一次至少 10 连胜的纪录。周一晚上，他们将对阵魔术队，迎来一场连胜球队之间的对决。
未来一周：季后赛争夺战
常规赛还剩不到一个月，东西部季后赛席位的卡位战仍在继续。让我们看看本周的一些关键争夺战和赛程：
东部 2 到 4 号种子
- 波士顿凯尔特人 (44胜23负): 对阵太阳、对阵勇士、客战孟菲斯灰熊、对阵森林狼。
- 纽约尼克斯 (44胜25负): 对阵步行者、客战布鲁克林篮网、对阵奇才。
- 克利夫兰骑士 (41胜27负): 客战雄鹿、客战公牛、客战新奥尔良鹈鹕。
考虑到尼克斯本周的赛程是面对三支东部摆烂球队，他们有绝佳机会升至第二。波士顿的赛程压力也不大，库里依然缺阵，灰熊正故意输球，而森林狼状态低迷。克利夫兰赛程也相对轻松，不过如果扬尼斯出战，对阵雄鹿的比赛可能会很困难。骑士队刚刚在主场输给过独行侠。我预计纽约会缩小与波士顿的差距。
东部 5 到 10 号种子
- 奥兰多魔术 (38胜28负): 客战老鹰、对阵雷霆、客战黄蜂、对阵湖人。
- 多伦多猛龙 (38胜29负): 客战公牛、客战掘金、客战太阳。
- 迈阿密热火 (38胜30负): 客战黄蜂、对阵湖人、客战火箭。
- 亚特兰大老鹰 (36胜31负): 对阵魔术、客战独行侠、客战休斯顿火箭、对阵勇士。
- 费城 76 人 (37胜31负): 客战掘金、客战萨克拉门托国王、客战爵士。
- 夏洛特黄蜂 (34胜34负): 对阵热火、对阵魔术、对阵灰熊。
魔术队本周将面临严峻考验。他们对阵亚特兰大的比赛对排名至关重要，但全部四场比赛都是试金石。多伦多处于客场之旅，仅在对阵芝加哥时占优。迈阿密和亚特兰大渴望冲出附加赛区，但赛程艰苦。费城伤兵满营，虽然周末赛程尚可，但仍可能跌向第十。这取决于夏洛特能否在主场对阵迈阿密和奥兰多的比赛中幸存。
那么密尔沃基 (28胜39负) 呢？ 是时候让雄鹿队彻底加入摆烂大军了。在本赛季剩余时间里，他们无论如何也无法接近附加赛区。他们的战绩大概率不会低于全联盟倒数第九，但这仍能给他们带来 20.3% 的概率抽中前四顺位选秀权。无论有没有扬尼斯，这才是他们目前需要的。
西部 1-2 号种子：
- 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (53胜15负): 客战魔术、客战篮网、客战奇才。
- 圣安东尼奥马刺 (49胜18负): 客战洛杉矶快船、客战国王、对阵太阳、对阵步行者。
雷霆队势头正盛，本周赛程非常轻松。在还剩 14 场比赛的情况下，他们领先马刺队 3.5 个胜场。圣安东尼奥可能追不上了。
西部 3 到 7 号种子：
- 洛杉矶湖人 (42胜25负): 客战火箭、客战火箭、客战热火、客战魔术。
- 休斯顿火箭 (41胜25负): 对阵湖人、对阵湖人、对阵老鹰、对阵热火。
- 丹佛掘金 (41胜27负): 对阵 76 人、客战灰熊、对阵猛龙、对阵波特兰开拓者。
- 明尼苏达森林狼 (41胜27负): 对阵太阳、对阵爵士、对阵开拓者、客战凯尔特人。
- 菲尼克斯太阳 (39胜28负): 客战凯尔特人、客战森林狼、客战马刺、对阵雄鹿、对阵猛龙。
本周的重头戏是湖人的休斯顿之旅。对阵湖人的两场胜利将让火箭队稳坐 3 号种子的位置。即使是 1 胜 1 负，火箭也能拿到赛季系列赛的平分优势，但火箭在打完湖人后还要面对老鹰和热火的挑战。丹佛本周赛程较好，得到了宝贵的喘息机会来争取重返前四。明尼苏达本周开局对阵太阳的比赛可谓“必须取胜”。对森林狼来说，幸运的是菲尼克斯本周的赛程极其残酷。
西部 8 到 10 号种子：
- 洛杉矶快船 (34胜33负): 对阵马刺、客战鹈鹕、客战鹈鹕、客战独行侠。
- 金州勇士 (32胜35负): 客战奇才、客战凯尔特人、客战底特律活塞、客战老鹰。
- 波特兰开拓者 (32胜36负): 客战篮网、客战步行者、客战森林狼、客战掘金。
开拓者队似乎总是难以翻身，但他们本周前半段赛程较轻松，随后会进入艰难模式。勇士队在打完奇才后将迎来残酷的一周，因此看到勇士 1 胜 3 负而开拓者 2 胜 2 负，从而让波特兰向第九名靠拢，并不会令人意外。与此同时，快船队打得非常好，他们在打完圣安东尼奥后赛程非常轻松。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Tanking NBA teams will be watching these NCAA Tournament players with keen interest
Tanking NBA teams will be watching these NCAA Tournament players with keen interest
Every Monday, we catch you up on the happenings in the NBA. This week, the NCAA Tournament begins. That means the reasons NBA teams are tanking will be on full display. Also, significant changes in playoff seeding could occur this week, given the tight standings.
We also have the extended version of the NBA Stock Report, a Monday staple in The Bounce. That’s our free NBA newsletter that you can sign up for and receive every day in your inbox.
The Big Story: It’s tourney time!
March Madness begins on Thursday! Well, it technically begins Tuesday and Wednesday with the First Four. But the first day of games that will dazzle us and ruin our brackets almost immediately is Thursday. Much like last season, this year’s tournament is full of talented NBA draft prospects that teams have been tanking for. The 2027 and 2028 draft classes don’t project to be nearly as good, so there’s even more reason to pay attention to the tournament this year. Because it looks like help isn’t coming in the next couple of years, NBA teams are going to focus on the heroes of the immediate future.
Let’s go through each bracket for a brief look at the top draft prospects in each one. As always, don’t forget to check out these players in Sam Vecenie’s latest Mock Draft.
East Region
Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II: Obviously, Boozer is the star from Duke, but Ngongba also has a chance to put on a show. Vecenie has him as a top-20 pick, and a deep tournament run could solidify the 6-foot-11 center’s standing. Ngongba missed the ACC tournament with a right foot injury but is hoping to be fine this week. For Boozer, the scouts will want to see him knock down 3s, move the ball and take over games on both ends of the floor. He’s locked into a top-three pick, though.
Kansas’ Darryn Peterson: How much will Peterson play? That question followed the 6-foot-6 guard all season, though he has played at least 28 minutes in each of the Jayhawks’ past seven games after dealing with a hamstring injury and cramping. Can he do anything to hurt his stock? No. Can he do anything to help his stock? Taking over and leading a Final Four run might make him the No. 1 pick.
Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr: Brown is a definite top-10 pick in the draft, and scouts will want to see the 6-5 guard do two things. 1) Take care of the ball. 2) Knock down 3s. They also want to see him play; he missed the ACC tournament and has been in and out of the lineup with a back injury.
Connecticut’s Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban: Mullins is projected in the top 20, while Karaban is an early second-rounder. Neither guy moves the ball much nor seems like he can take over games. But this UConn team can make a deep run, which would help them both.
Midwest Region
Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara: All three of these guys are projected to be in the second half of the first round. I’m interested to see if the 23-year-old Lendeborg can make a big push for a team in the middle of the first round that needs a guy who can play right away.
Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson: The Cyclones’ solid playmaking forward is projected as a late first-rounder or early second-round pick. Scouts want to see him improve his outside shot, but that won’t be solved in one tournament run.
Alabama’s Labaron Philon Jr. and Amari Allen: Allen could make a big push with a good tournament run. A lot of us are looking for Philon to put on a show and carry Bama deep into the tournament. He can really score and shoot, but can he lead the Crimson Tide outside of his individual play?
Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson Jr.: He might be the best shooter in the draft, and Anderson increased his assists by more than triple this season. We might see an awesome showdown between him and Philon in the second round. Anderson is projected to go in the 20s but could move himself toward a lottery pick with a big showing.
Tennessee’s Nate Ament: Ament could do a lot to increase his draft stock, and he’s essentially a top-10 guy already. He’s been dealing with a right ankle sprain, however. Maybe he doesn’t do enough to show scouts he’s above North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, who’s out for the tournament with a thumb injury, but Ament could turn some heads.
South Region
Florida’s Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu: Vecenie has Haugh, a versatile 6-9 forward, at No. 13, and the 6-10 Chinyelu as an early second-rounder. They could lead the Gators on a deep run.
Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr.: Everybody is ready to watch Flemings put on a show. Having Cenac as a dangerous big man will help. Flemings could have an awesome showdown with our next prospect in the Sweet 16, and everybody is expecting the 6-4 guard to cement his case as a top-five pick.
Illinois’ Keaton Wagler: Wagler is a big-time scorer with a lethal jump shot. He can also make plays. A potential Sweet 16 matchup with Flemings would be a brilliant showdown. Wagler is projected by Vecenie as the No. 6 pick.
Vanderbilt’s Tyler Tanner: Tanner is an undersized point guard who can fly through the air. At some point, he’s going to have one of the best highlights of the tournament, but can he cement himself as a first-round selection?
North Carolina’s Henri Veesaar: With Wilson out, the Tar Heels’ best prospect to watch is projected early second-round pick Veesaar. He’s had a great season, but is he actually a stretch big at the next level?
Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz: He had two good games for Drake in the tournament last year, and Stirtz (projected mid-first rounder) can lead Iowa with a big shooting effort.
West Region
Arizona’s Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas: Burries and Peat are projected to go 10th and 11th in the draft, so the Wildcats have a lot of firepower. Peat is a bully wing/forward, and Burries is a scoring guard. Massive big man Krivas also has a lot on the line. He’s a borderline first-rounder, and he can lock that in with a strong tournament.
Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr.: One of my favorite prospects in the draft! He can do it all as a lead guard, has a great 3-point shot and could lead Arkansas on a run to the Final Four. He’s projected as a top-10 player, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t deliver.
BYU’s AJ Dybantsa: Obviously, Dybantsa is the potential star of stars here. He might already have done enough to be the top pick in the draft, regardless of how his tournament goes. But we still want to see that Carmelo Anthony-esque march through the tournament.
Texas’ Dailyn Swain: He does a little bit of everything, but scouts want to see him consistently knock down the outside jumper. He and the Longhorns play Tuesday night in the First Four against NC State.
NBA Stock Report Extended
Los Angeles Lakers (42-25). The Lakers have won five straight games, the second-longest streak in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have won eight in a row. The Lakers are cooking enough for some to wonder if they could have actually figured things out. In this streak, they have beaten the New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. Remember all their issues against the Nuggets over the years? The Lakers won the season series 2-1 over Denver to claim a possible tiebreaker.
L.A.’s stretch includes winning eight of its last nine games as well. It has the third-best offense during this period, thanks to elite shot-making and low turnovers. The defense has also ranked in the top eight during this stretch, and it’s not just because of the bad teams they faced. The Lakers shut down New York and Minnesota. The lineup of Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart and LeBron James has locked things down defensively.
Milwaukee Bucks (28-39). They did manage to beat the Indiana Pacers to stop their four-game skid, but the Bucks are in a bad way. They’re 2-8 in their last 10, and those wins came over the tanking Utah Jazz and Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmpo has played in six of those 10, but Milwaukee is minus-20 overall in those six games. Antetokounmpo has averaged 25.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists while making 53.1 percent of his shots in 27 minutes per game. And yet, the Bucks have been minus-16, minus-24, plus-23, minus-12, minus-eight and plus-17 in those six games. They’re not even winning the minutes he’s on the floor consistently.
The Bucks are 5 1/2 games behind the Charlotte Hornets for 10th place in the East and only a game ahead of the tanking Chicago Bulls. Also, Giannis had an awkward landing in Sunday’s win over Indiana and might have another knee issue. Milwaukee has a bad offense. It has a bad defense. And it can’t take advantage of its biggest weapon right now.
Orlando Magic (36-29). Have the Magic truly figured this out? It feels like their roller coaster of a season has made us pose this question in several different stretches. But this seven-game win streak is by far their longest. Three of the wins during this streak have come over the Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat. And they’ve beaten the teams they need to beat, even if their wins over the Dallas Mavericks and Washington Wizards were too close for comfort. Not folding at the end of games is huge for Orlando as it tries to build momentum toward the postseason.
Remember, the Magic are doing this without Franz Wagner. But Paolo Banchero has been good for most of this streak. He’s getting a lot of help from Jalen Suggs, Tristan de Silva, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jett Howard. Role players making 3-pointers is big for them because they really struggle to make deep shots. But the Magic finding their defensive identity again is very encouraging. None of it is coming from gambling, either. They’re not forcing a high rate of turnovers. They’re just forcing missed shots and grabbing the boards. This might turn into a team to avoid in the playoffs.
Golden State Warriors (32-35). It makes sense that the Warriors are struggling because Steph Curry hasn’t played since Jan. 30. The Warriors are 5-12 since then. They’ve lost seven of their last eight and still don’t know if they’re getting Curry back this season. His return keeps getting pushed back, and they’ve at least considered a drop point for when they might need to shut him down. That’s not ideal for a 38-year-old who relies on movement and is dealing with a knee injury. Jimmy Butler is out for the season with a torn ACL, so this is probably going to end pretty quickly for Golden State once we get to April.
The Warriors have been a bottom-10 offense and defense during this stretch without Curry. This has been an offense by committee; Moses Moody, De’Anthony Melton, Gui Santos and Brandin Podziemski have led the team in scoring with 15 or more points per game. But nobody is taking over and just saying, “I got this.” Unless the Warriors sign Air Bud for the rest of the season, it’ll be tough to see this team make some magical run.
Jaylin Williams’ outside shooting. As if the Thunder couldn’t get any scarier, now their backup big man is a dead-eye 3-point shooter. For his career, Williams is a 38.1 percent shooter from 3-point range. In his first three seasons, he was a 39 percent 3-point shooter on about 2.5 attempts per game. Pretty good, but not exactly Dirk Nowitzki. Then, to begin this season, Williams was in a big-time shooting slump. In his first 34 games, Williams made just 29.8 percent of his 3s on 3.6 attempts per game. But since the start of February, Williams has been a flame-thrower.
He’s taking nearly five per game (4.9), and he’s making 45.7 percent of those deep shots. Williams has had a couple of big scoring efforts during this stretch, and he doesn’t hesitate to let it fly or make an impact on the offensive end of the floor. Williams stretching the floor in this way adds more offensive punch for OKC. And his ability to play big and do a decent job on someone like Nikola Jokić makes that 3-point shooting even more valuable.
Timberwolves (41-27). After winning eight of nine games, the Wolves have lost four of their last five. They had briefly climbed to the third spot in the West, and now they’re in sixth place, just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns. The Wolves lost to Orlando, both L.A. teams and then OKC following a tough win over a Curry-less Warriors squad. This is not how the Wolves want to be playing less than a month before the regular season ends. They are getting lit up on defense, and their offense has been mediocre, at best.
Julius Randle was really struggling before turning things around in Sunday’s loss to the Thunder. Naz Reid can’t make a 3 right now. Donte DiVincenzo and Jaden McDaniels are ice cold. Minnesota keeps giving the ball away. The 3-pointers aren’t falling. And Anthony Edwards isn’t carrying them, although his numbers are mostly fine. The offense can come and go, but the defense is probably the most concerning. The Wolves are fouling too much, not getting turnovers and giving up a ton of second-chance points.
Atlanta Hawks (36-31). The Hawks have won nine in a row. The absurd thing about their streak is that they are still just eighth in the East. They managed to climb past the Philadelphia 76ers on their way to getting five games over .500, but they’re still a 1 1/2 games behind Miami. Atlanta has its longest winning streak since notching 19 straight victories in the 2014-2015 season. You have to go back to 1997 for the only other time they won at least 10 straight. They’ll face off against the Magic in a battle of streaking teams Monday night.
Week Ahead: The playoff race
With less than a month left in the season, the jockeying for position in the East and West playoff seedings continues. Let’s look at some key races and the schedules this week:
East 2-to-4 seeding
- Boston Celtics (44-23): vs. Suns, vs. Warriors, at Memphis Grizzlies, vs. Wolves
- Knicks (44-25): vs. Pacers, at Brooklyn Nets, vs. Wizards.
- Cavaliers (41-27): at Bucks, at Bulls, at New Orleans Pelicans.
The Knicks have a great opportunity to move up to second this week, considering their schedule of three tanking East teams. Boston’s schedule isn’t too tough with Curry still being out, the Grizzlies being intentionally bad and the Wolves struggling. Cleveland also has an easy schedule, although the Bucks game could prove to be difficult if Giannis is playing. The Cavs also just lost at home to Dallas. I’d expect New York to close the gap on Boston.
East 5-to-10 seeding
- Magic (38-28): at Hawks, vs. Thunder, at Hornets, vs. Lakers.
- Toronto Raptors (38-29): at Bulls, at Nuggets, at Suns.
- Heat (38-30): at Hornets, vs. Lakers, at Rockets.
- Hawks (36-31): vs. Magic, at Mavericks, at Houston Rockets, vs. Warriors.
- 76ers (37-31): at Nuggets, at Sacramento Kings, at Jazz.
- Hornets (34-34): vs. Heat, vs. Magic, vs. Grizzlies.
The Magic will be tested with a rough schedule this week. Their game against Atlanta will be huge for the standings, but all four games are measuring sticks. Toronto is on the road and only gets one favorable matchup against Chicago. Miami and Atlanta are looking to climb out of the Play-In Tournament but have tough schedules. Philadelphia is riddled with injuries and gets a nice finish to the week, but that may not stop it from falling closer to tenth. It depends on whether Charlotte can survive those games hosting Miami and Orlando.
What about Milwaukee (28-39)? It’s time for the Bucks to lean into the tank. They aren’t going to get anywhere near the Play-In the rest of the season. They probably can’t get any finish any lower than the ninth-worst record in the league, but that would give them a 20.3 percent chance of landing a top-four draft pick. With or without Giannis, this is what they need.
West 1-2 seeding:
- Thunder (53-15): at Magic, at Nets, at Wizards.
- San Antonio Spurs (49-18): at LA Clippers, at Kings, vs. Suns, vs. Pacers.
The Thunder are on fire and have a very easy schedule this week. They’re 3 1/2 games ahead of the Spurs with 14 to play. San Antonio likely isn’t going to catch them.
Western Conference 3-to-7 seeding:
- Lakers (42-25): at Rockets, at Rockets, at Heat, at Magic.
- Rockets (41-25): vs. Lakers, vs. Lakers, vs. Hawks, vs. Heat.
- Nuggets (41-27): vs. Sixers, at Grizzlies, vs. Raptors, vs. Portland Trail Blazers.
- Timberwolves (41-27): vs. Suns, vs. Jazz, vs. Blazers, at Celtics.
- Suns (39-28): at Celtics, at Wolves, at Spurs, vs. Bucks, vs. Raptors.
The big showdown this week will be the Lakers’ trip to Houston. Two wins against the Lakers would put the Rockets firmly in the driver’s seat for the No. 3 seed. Even just going 1-1 would give them the tiebreaker for the season series, but Houston has tough matchups against Atlanta and Miami after the set against the Lakers. Denver gets a much-needed reprieve with its schedule to try to move up to fourth. Minnesota has what might be a must-win game against the Suns to start the week. Luckily for the Wolves, Phoenix has a brutal schedule this week.
West 8-to-10 seeding:
- Clippers (34-33): vs. Spurs, at Pelicans, at Pelicans, at Mavs.
- Warriors (32-35): at Wizards, at Celtics, at Detroit Pistons, at Hawks.
- Blazers (32-36): at Nets, at Pacers, at Wolves, at Nuggets.
The Blazers can’t seem to get over the hump, but they have an easy first half of this week. Then they get into some tricky matchups. The Warriors have a brutal week after that Wizards game, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them go 1-3 and the Blazers go 2-2, moving Portland toward ninth. Meanwhile, the Clippers are playing really well, and they have an easy schedule after San Antonio.
By Zach Harper, via The Athletic