By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-03-03 13:06:41
大湖地区一段孤独的高速公路上——我2月份去了底特律和克利夫兰，所以你们就不必跑这一趟了。
不，说认真的，那里挺好的，尽管我这副习惯了亚特兰大气候的“软身板”很难适应十几华氏度的气温。为了连续三个晚上观看精英级别、季后赛水准的篮球比赛，大拇指冻得没知觉只是小小的牺牲。最后我还去了一趟丹佛，见证了森林狼与掘金的另一场强强对话。
（另外：底特律很迷人。认真的。那些很久没去过那里的媒体人，如果今年春天为了季后赛去底特律，一定会大吃一惊的。）
我这次旅程的核心目的就是近距离观察争冠级别的球队在面对同等级对手时的表现，并开始思考这对季后赛意味着什么。
那么，让我们从本周初底特律的一个场景开始，它为常规赛最后的冲刺阶段拉开了序幕：圣安东尼奥马刺队的维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 对底特律活塞队的凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham) 那个简直离谱的封盖。
观察这次进攻的发展。康宁汉姆在突破时知道文班亚马就在附近埋伏，于是他几乎完全停下了节奏，让文班必须在扑向康宁汉姆和回防篮下的杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 之间做出选择。一旦文班表现出退防的迹象，康宁汉姆随即起跳投篮，且身体大幅远离篮筐，这是一个难度极高的终结动作（尤其是在抵消了向前的惯性后），但他有能力完成。
不幸的是，他面对的是地球上唯一能盖掉这个球的球员。文班亚马不仅拥有恐怖的长臂能触及康宁汉姆高抛的投篮，而且令人惊叹的是，他从回防杜伦的过程中如此迅速地二次起跳，并在板上将球生生钉死。这是文班亚马在下半场送出的五次火锅之一，最终马刺客场战胜了底特律。
我提起这一球，是因为它强化了争冠的唯一性。仅仅做到“优秀”是不够的；冠军争夺战关乎如何在充满潜在竞争者的赛场中脱颖而出，成为最强的那一个。
再看一遍那个封盖：联盟前十级别的球员完成了一个通常能转化成进球的高难度动作，只可惜他的对手是这个星球上最好的防守球员。一旦进入季后赛第二轮，这种级别的对决就会变得非常普遍。每个对手都拥有一位入选最佳阵容的核心以及全明星级别的角色球员。
争冠热门球队即将迎来关键时刻，我认为目前有八支球队属于真正的争冠梯队，另有两支球队（火箭和湖人）处于边缘地带。
幸运的是，我有幸在本周观看了这八支球队中七支的比赛。赛程恰到好处地为我们呈献了一场争冠球队之间的“循环赛”，及时地将我们从“大摆烂惨案”中解救了出来。
在过去的八天里，我们见证了马刺对阵活塞、尼克斯对阵骑士、活塞对阵雷霆、凯尔特人对阵掘金、骑士对阵活塞、掘金对阵雷霆、马刺对阵尼克斯以及森林狼对阵掘金。
而好戏还在继续，今晚有骑士与活塞的二番战，周三是尼克斯对阵雷霆，周四是马刺与活塞的再相遇，周五则是尼克斯对阵掘金。准备好爆米花吧。
那么，在经历了上周的实地考察后……现在的局势如何？
首先，我不想对这次旅程中的某一场比赛反应过度。例如，马刺在底特律看起来很棒，但周日在纽约的表现就没那么好；而尼克斯（我目睹了他们平淡地输给骑士）则恰恰相反。
随着伤病继续定义赛季的下半段，情况更是如此。掘金依然想念阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon)，雷霆一直在损失后卫球员，而杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 能否回归也笼罩着凯尔特人的季后赛前景。
尽管如此，我大致将争冠版图划分为以下几个梯队：
第一梯队：雷霆
听着，尽管我们想说冠军之争是完全开放的，但一支全员齐整的雷霆队依然极难被击败。我明白丹佛和印第安纳都在季后赛环境下暴露了他们的一些弱点，我也知道他们没能让杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 保持健康，而且各支球队可能已经找到了攻击他们那套激进协防体系的方法，并试图通过三分线击败他们。
即便如此，他们本赛季以24胜1负开局，目前仍有望打出联盟历史上顶尖的场均净胜分，而他们之所以被认为脆弱，主要是因为在半数球员受伤的情况下，他们在最近一段赛程中“仅仅”打出了23胜14负。上周看到残阵雷霆仍能在三个半节的时间里让底特律惊出一身冷汗，这很好地提醒了我们：这支球队在季后赛系列赛中拥有多少种不同的选择和风格。
第二梯队：待证明者——圣安东尼奥、底特律
似乎还没人相信底特律能在季后赛有所作为，这部分是因为活塞自（查阅笔记）……（眨眨眼再次查阅笔记）……2008年以来就没赢过一轮季后赛，部分是因为外界对他们不稳定的外线投篮仍有疑虑。
话虽如此，底特律在历史统计上处于相当强势的位置；活塞肯定会成为东部的头号种子，他们拥有东部最好的场均净胜分，而且他们的首发五人组（每百回合净胜13.7分）正横扫一切。
同样，圣安东尼奥马刺虽然伤病频发导致阵容连续性受阻（没有一套五人阵容配合超过17场比赛，而唯一配合了17场的那套阵容还包含了四名替补），但他们仍将以西部第二种子的身份进入季后赛，同时还在培养像斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)、迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant) 这样的年轻人。
马刺在与俄克拉荷马城的五次交手中赢了四次，在一个通往冠军之路必须经过雷霆的分区，这是一个重要的考量。还记得文班亚马那个封盖吗？俄克拉荷马城那种依赖持球突破和冲击禁区的打法，或许在面对这种防守时并非最优解。
不过，马刺和底特律一样，还没在四月和五月证明过自己。文班亚马在季后赛很可能会面对前所未有的对抗强度，甚至是一些新奇的针对性防守方案。他将如何应对，将是季后赛的一大看点。
第三梯队：昔日冠军——波士顿、丹佛
在塔图姆缺阵期间，波士顿的表现令人震惊地成功，现在他可能在常规赛末段回归并出征季后赛。即便没有他，凯尔特人也在场均净胜分上紧追底特律。事实上，由于他们表现太好，甚至有人担心重新引入塔图姆这种高占有率、多持球的风格可能会产生意想不到的副作用。此外，凯尔特人的节奏是联盟最慢的，我们都见过他们在季后赛由于过度追求完美的六次传球导三分而陷入泥潭。
掘金拥有联盟最强的进攻，可能还拥有世界上最好的球员，但很难想象如果戈登不能回归，丹佛的防守能跟上强队的脚步；截至周一，掘金在防守端排名联盟第21位，而戈登只打了20场比赛。另一方面，尽管去年常规赛防守端同样挣扎，但他们还是把雷霆拖入了抢七。相比一年前，他们现在的阵容深度更可靠，而且全员齐整的首发五人组依然威慑力十足。
第四梯队：危险分子——克利夫兰、明尼苏达、纽约
明尼苏达和纽约去年都打进了分区决赛，而克利夫兰赢得了64场比赛。骑士刚刚通过将达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 转型为詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 式的角色提升了季后赛上限；尼克斯在18场比赛中赢了14场，周日刚刚血洗了圣安东尼奥；明尼苏达在15场比赛中赢了11场，同时通过签下阿约·多苏穆 (Ayo Dosunmu) 填补了替补席上的巨大空缺。
克利夫兰或纽约都有可能赢下东部，尽管他们看起来都不太具备冠军相。尼克斯的首发阵容统治力还不够，板凳深度也依然不稳。与此同时，克利夫兰在纸面上可能是东部最强的球队，但骑士一直难以保持健康。此外，在骑士的四名球星中，只有多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 有过在季后赛维持同等水准产出的历史。
同样，如果明尼苏达连续第三次造访分区决赛，没人会感到惊讶。但想更进一步？是的，那可能仍有难度。森林狼的季后赛必杀技在于，在轮换缩减的系列赛中，他们的前八人轮换比你的更强，能把你耗尽。我在周日去丹佛的旅程中确实看到了这一点，当时森林狼的替补阵容让掘金的板凳球员颜面尽失。但这种优势在更高轮换的比赛中会遇到瓶颈，因为森林狼往往在面对顶级防守时只能依靠唯一的进攻强点。
第五梯队：其他球队
我在这里特别点名火箭和湖人，因为这两支球队凭借顶尖球星的爆发力，至少有“冷门机会”赢下一两轮系列赛。如果弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 和史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams) 还在大名单上，火箭或许值得更严肃的讨论，但他们在交易截止日的按兵不动说明了很多问题。与此同时，湖人似乎仍然没有足够的防守或深度来支撑他们的三位顶级球星。
但我怎么想并不重要，让我们来看看历史规律怎么说。
我提起这一点是因为今年春天有一场重要的“局中局”：为了被视作严肃竞争者而展开的排位赛。活塞和雷霆已经作为各自赛区的假定头名“毕业”了，而圣安东尼奥极有可能拿到联盟第三好的战绩。
对于其他人来说，这更多是一场恶斗。原因在于，从历史来看，你必须成为分区前三号种子才有机会夺冠。历史上只有两支四号种子或更低排位的球队赢得过总冠军，而且在过去的29年里从未发生过。是的，印第安纳上赛季曾接近成功（波士顿在2010年也是），但事实胜于雄辩。
同样，你至少需要52场胜利。在过去的30年里，我们见证了29支球队虽然赢球不足51场但仍稳坐分区前三。有趣的是，其中24支在东部，只有5支在西部。这29支球队加起来一共赢得了零个总冠军，总共只赢了两场总决赛——那是2003年，篮网从那个没有球队能赢下52场比赛的东部脱颖而出。相比之下，这类球队在早期被爆冷的比例也极高（比如2023年的国王和灰熊，或2024年的雄鹿），尽管这超出了我们今天讨论的范围。
看看排名和胜场数，你就会明白为什么这最后几周会变得非常有趣。在东部，尼克斯、骑士和凯尔特人正为二、三、四号种子杀得难解难分，而历史告诉我们，掉到第四名的球队夺冠概率微乎其微。同样，西部在森林狼、火箭和掘金之间展开的第三名之争，可能会持续到赛季的最后一天。
这两场争夺战都涉及到了那些可能达到、也可能达不到52胜门槛的球队。特别是在西部，火箭、掘金、森林狼三者之争的胜出者最终可能仍无法达到52胜。
无论如何，我上面列出的八支严肃竞争者名单，到常规赛结束时将缩减到六支，如果胜场不足52场的球队够多，甚至可能缩减到五支或四支。
因此，在剩下的六周、20来场比赛中，观察这“相对正经十强”（这是我在通过机场安检时冥思苦想出来的词）如何排定座次，并为季后赛的严酷考验做准备，是一件很有趣的事。也许，这足以让你从那些无聊的摆烂中转移注意力。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA contenders tiers: Sizing up the Thunder, Celtics and other title candidates
NBA contenders tiers: Sizing up the Thunder, Celtics and other title candidates
A LONELY STRETCH OF HIGHWAY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION — I went to Detroit and Cleveland in February so you wouldn’t have to.
No, seriously, it was fine, even if my soft Atlanta self struggled with the concept of temperatures in the teens. Being unable to feel my thumbs was a small sacrifice for watching elite, playoff-caliber basketball three nights in a row, and I topped it off with a trip to Denver to see the Wolves and Nuggets in another huge battle.
(Also: Detroit is lovely. Seriously. Media who haven’t been there in a while are gonna be shocked when they go for the playoffs this spring.)
The whole point of my journey was to see contender-level teams playing contender-level opponents, and start thinking about what it might mean for the postseason.
So let’s start with a scene from Detroit at the beginning of my week, one that sets the stage for the final sprint to the regular-season finish line: This absolutely ridiculous block on Detroit’s Cade Cunningham by San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama.
Watch this play develop. Cunningham knows Wembanyama is lurking as he drives to the cup, but slows his tempo to a near-total stop so Victor has to choose between committing to Cunningham or retreating to Jalen Duren under the basket. Once Victor seems to retreat, Cunningham steps into a shot that has him extended well away from the hoop, a difficult finish (especially after stopping his momentum) but one he’s capable of pulling off.
Unfortunately, he tried it against the one player on earth capable of blocking the shot. Wembanyama not only had the absurd length to reach Cunningham’s high-arcing attempt, but he also, amazingly, recovered from his recovery to Duren so quickly that he was there to smash it off the glass. Wembanyama’s rude spike was one of five second-half rejections he had as the Spurs pulled away from Detroit for a win.
I bring up that play because it reinforced the singular nature of winning the championship. Merely being good doesn’t cut it; the title race is about emerging as the best in a field loaded with potential contenders.
Look at that block again: One of the 10 best players in the league made an extremely difficult move that normally results in a bucket, except that he was trying it against the best defensive player on the planet. Once you get into the second round of the playoffs, that type of matchup becomes almost common. Every opponent has an All-NBA centerpiece and All-Star level talent around him.
We’re getting to a serious moment for the league’s contending hopefuls, of which I would count eight teams as truly serious and two others (Houston and the Lakers) on the periphery.
Fortunately, I had the great privilege of seeing seven of those eight teams play this week, with the schedule delivering us a veritable round-robin tournament of contender vs. contender matchups just in time to rescue us from the Great Tanking Debacle.
In the last eight days, we’ve had Spurs vs. Pistons, Knicks vs. Cavs, Pistons vs. Thunder, Celtics vs. Nuggets, Cavs vs. Pistons, Nuggets vs. Thunder, Spurs vs. Knicks and Wolves vs. Nuggets.
And it continues tonight with a Cavs-Pistons rematch, Wednesday with Knicks-Thunder, Thursday with a Spurs-Pistons rematch, Friday with Knicks-Nuggets. Get yer popcorn.
So, having checked in on these teams in person my travels last week … how do things stand right now?
Let’s start by saying I don’t want to overreact to one single game on this journey. The Spurs, for example, looked great when I saw them in Detroit and not so good in New York on Sunday, while the Knicks (who I saw in a blah loss to Cleveland) were the opposite.
That’s especially true as injuries will continue to define the second half of the season. The Nuggets still miss Aaron Gordon, the Thunder have been hemorrhaging guards, and a potential Jayson Tatum return hangs over the Celtics’ playoff picture.
Nonetheless, I would broadly tier out the championship picture something like this:
Tier 1: The Thunder
Look, as much as we want to talk about the race being wide open, a fully loaded Thunder team is still going to be awfully tough to beat. I get that both Denver and Indiana showed some of their weaknesses in a playoff environment, that they haven’t been able to keep Jalen Williams healthy and that teams may have figured out some ways to attack their handsy, helping defense and beat them from the 3-point line.
That said, they began the year 24-1, are still on track for one of the best scoring margins in league annals and are considered vulnerable largely because of a stretch where they’ve “only” gone 23-14 with half their team injured. Watching a subset of the Thunder still make Detroit sweat for three and a half quarters last week was a good reminder of how many different options and styles this team can turn to in a playoff series.
Tier 2: The Unproven — San Antonio, Detroit
Nobody seems to believe in Detroit in the postseason yet, which is partly a result of the Pistons not having won a playoff series since (checks notes) … (blinks and checks notes a second time) … 2008, and partly a result of legitimate questions about their iffy perimeter shooting.
That said, Detroit is in a pretty powerful position historically; the Pistons certainly will be the conference’s top seed, they have the best scoring margin in the East and their starting five (plus-13.7 points per 100) is rolling people.
Similarly, San Antonio will go into the postseason as a second seed despite multiple injuries that have made continuity difficult (no five-man lineup has played more than 17 games, and the only one that has played 17 features four bench players) while bringing along younger players like Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant.
The Spurs also have won four of their five meetings against Oklahoma City, an important consideration in a conference where going through the Thunder seems mandatory, Remember that block by Wembanyama? Oklahoma City’s dribble-driving, attacking game is perhaps not optimally suited to go against that.
That said, the Spurs — like Detroit — have never done it in April and May. Wembanyama is likely to face unprecedented physicality in the postseason, and perhaps some novel schemes as well. How he responds will be one of the thrills of the playoffs.
Tier 3: The Past Champions — Boston, Denver
Boston has been shockingly successful in Tatum’s absence, and now may have him back for the end of the regular season and a playoff run. The Celtics, even without him, are pushing Detroit for the conference’s top scoring margin. They’ve been good enough, in fact, that there is some concern that reincorporating Tatum’s high-usage, dribble-heavy style might have the plot twist of messing them up. The Celtics also play the league’s slowest pace, and we’ve all seen them get stuck in the playoff mud hunting the perfect six-pass sequence for a 3-point shot.
The Nuggets have the league’s best offense and quite possibly its best player, but it’s hard to imagine Denver’s defense keeping up with good teams unless Gordon is back in the mix; the Nuggets were 21st on that side of the ball as of Monday, with Gordon having played only 20 games. On the other hand, they took the Thunder to seven games a year ago despite similar regular-season defensive woes, they have much more reliable depth than a year ago and the full-strength starting five remains fearsome.
Tier 4: The Dangerous — Cleveland, Minnesota, New York
Minnesota and New York went to the conference finals last year and Cleveland won 64 games. The Cavs just increased their playoff upside by turning Darius Garland into James Harden, the Knicks have won 14 of 18 and just routed San Antonio on Sunday, and Minnesota has won 11 of 15 while shoring up a gaping hole on the bench with the addition of Ayo Dosunmu.
Cleveland or New York could win the East, although both profile less as a title winner. New York’s starting five hasn’t been dominant and the back-end depth remains shaky. Meanwhile, Cleveland might be the East’s best team on paper, but the Cavs had trouble staying healthy. Moreover, of Cleveland’s four stars, only Donovan Mitchell has a history of delivering at the same level in the playoffs.
Similarly, nobody would be shocked if Minnesota made a third straight visit to the conference finals. Going beyond that? Yep, that might still be a reach. Minnesota’s playoff superpower has been that in a short-rotation series, its top eight is better than yours and can wear you out. That certainly bore out on my trip to Denver on Sunday, when the Wolves’ bench unit pantsed the Nuggets’ subs. But that hits its limits in later rounds when the Wolves are riding one offensive star against elite defenses.
Tier 5: Everyone else
I’ll specifically note the Rockets and the Lakers here, since both teams have at least puncher’s-chance odds of winning a round or two with their top-end talent. The Rockets would warrant a more serious mention here if Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams were on their active roster and their decision to punt on the trade deadline spoke volumes. The Lakers, meanwhile, still don’t seem to have nearly enough defense or depth to back up their three electric stars.
But enough about what I think. Let’s also look at what history says.
I bring that up because we have an important game-within-the-game this spring: The race to be taken seriously as a contender. The Pistons and Thunder have graduated from this as presumed top seeds in their conferences, while San Antonio seems highly likely to have the league’s third-best record.
For the others, it’s more of a fight. The reason is that, historically, you want to be a top-three seed to win a championship. Only two teams seeded fourth or lower have won a title, and none in the last 29 years. Yes, Indiana came close last season (as did Boston in 2010), but the facts are the facts.
Similarly, you want at least 52 wins. In the last 30 years, we’ve had 29 teams who won 51 games or fewer but were still top-three seeds in their conference. (Hilariously, 24 of them were in the East and just five in the West.) Those 29 teams have combined to win zero championships and a total of two NBA Finals games — in 2003, when the Nets emerged as the champion of an Eastern Conference in which no team won 52 games. (They’ve also accounted for a disproportionate number of early upsets — such as the Kings and Grizzlies in 2023 or the Bucks in 2024 — although that’s beyond the scope of what we’re analyzing here.)
Look at the standings and the win totals, and you can see how these last few weeks can get interesting. In the East, the Knicks, Cavs and Celtics are in a tight race for the second, third and fourth seeds, with history saying the team that lands fourth has slim odds of winning a title. Similarly, the West has a chase for the third seed between the Wolves, Rockets and Nuggets that could go down to the last day of the season.
Both those races also involve teams that may or may not hit our 52-win threshold. Particularly in the West, it’s possible the winner of the Rockets-Nuggets-Wolves race still lands short of 52.
Either way, however, my list of eight serious contenders above will find itself whittled down to six by the end of the regular season, and possibly five — or even four — if enough clubs fall short of 52 wins.
Thus, with six weeks and 20-ish games to sort this out, it’s a fun time to watch the NBA’s Relatively Serious 10 (my own term, which I came up with after an extended brainstorming session while going through airport security) sort themselves out and prepare for the playoff crucible. And maybe, just maybe, it’s enough fun to distract you from all the tanking.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic