By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2026-02-27 10:45:42
底特律——NBA是一个冷酷无情的联盟。即便对于乐透秀来说也是如此。
在我环绕五大湖地区的报道行程中，我看到圣安东尼奥马刺队的四名成功乐透秀合力砍下70分，带领球队在底特律取得大捷。而仅仅一晚之后，我就看到前马刺球员、现效力于纽约尼克斯队的杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 在输给克利夫兰骑士队的比赛中出场5分钟，一分未得。
高顺位新秀的境遇大抵如此。在职业生涯的前一两年，他们往往身处“保护茧”中，无论表现如何，都能获得稳定的出场时间、首发机会和球权分配。但如果迟迟没有打出成绩，情况很快就会恶化。作为2022年的9号秀，索汉在2023年秋季曾是马刺队的揭幕战首发控卫，那个赛季场均出场30分钟。而到了2025年秋季，他已经开始领到DNP（未出场）了。
具体情况因球队和球员的特定处境而异，尤其是当一名乐透秀最终加盟了一支并非处于重建期（或并非公开摆烂）的球队时。例如，底特律活塞队的罗纳德·霍兰德二世 (Ronald Holland II) 虽然是2024年的5号秀，但他必须在目前战绩高居NBA榜首的活塞队中努力争取一席之地。
“通常情况下，像他这个顺位的球员会有38分钟的时间去犯错，”活塞队主帅J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff) 说道，“但他必须通过扮演好特定角色来学习。”
尽管如此，令人惊讶的是，这种“保护茧”的隔热层往往就在这个节点——即球员职业生涯第二个赛季的交易截止日后不久——开始变薄。亚特兰大老鹰队本周决定将2024年选秀状元扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher) 撤出首发名单，就是一个完美的例子。
从微观层面看，这是一个球队对某个球员的决策，与活塞队、犹他爵士队或其他球队如何处理他们的年轻球员无关。然而，从宏观层面看，这是一个关于时间线的重大宣言。在经历了18个月后，继续让里萨谢首发的唯一理由是他真的足够优秀到可以首发。而事实并非如此。
对于整体表现令人失望的2024届新秀来说，随着他们各自的第二个赛季接近尾声，这一举动代表了一种更广泛的共识：施舍般的登场时间和白送的首发位置已经到头了。在经历了大约140场NBA比赛后，是时候拿出真本事了，球队也不会再过分纠结于选秀顺位带来的沉没成本。
看看2024届这批人：表现与其顺位不符的绝非里萨谢一人。这一届新秀的表现一直很挣扎，尤其是如果你关注最有潜力的前20顺位的话。在那组球员中，只有两名球员——圣安东尼奥的斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和华盛顿的亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr) ——可以合理地被称为各自球队中表现最好的三名球员之一。
如果把标准降低，也只有另外四个人——波特兰的多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 、迈阿密的凯尔·威尔 (Kel’El Ware) 、克利夫兰的杰伦·泰森 (Jaylon Tyson) 以及俄克拉荷马城的阿贾伊·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) ——已经证明自己具备首发实力。而在他们之中，只有克林根是乐透秀。（孟菲斯的扎克·伊迪 (Zach Edey) 如果能保持健康也会加入这个名单，但目前看来，这个“如果”和伊迪的身材一样沉重。）
其他首轮秀，比如霍兰德，也曾有过高光时刻，但感觉他们的职业生涯仍处于刀刃之上，随时可能滑向任何一方。如果其中一些人不能尽快脱颖而出，2024年选秀的头部顺位看起来……真的挺糟糕。
在米切尔之前的37个选秀顺位中，令人惊讶的是，竟然有如此多的人已经处于职业生涯的十字路口。在不到两年的时间里，8号、16号、17号、23号、26号和33号秀已经被交易、裁掉或兼而有之。（达尔顿·克内克特 (Dalton Knecht) 的交易虽然被撤销，但性质是一样的。）10号秀科迪·威廉姆斯 (Cody Williams) 的表现差到他的球队因为在第四节派他上场而被罚款。前37顺位中有12人的NBA总出场时间不到1000分钟——其中包括8号、12号和13号秀——而且这12人中似乎没有谁能在下个赛季显著增加出场时间。
如果不是因为那些摆烂或重建球队提供的“扶贫时间”，这个数字还会大得多。随着几乎所有这些球队都在下个赛季转向争取胜利，这些出场时间似乎岌岌可危。这份名单中除了上述的威廉姆斯，还包括华盛顿的鲍勃·卡林顿 (Bub Carrington)（尽管他的BPM值排名全届倒数五名，出场时间却领跑全届）以及其他几位。
如果说有什么积极的一面，那就是2024年对于那些大龄参选、大器晚成的角色球员来说是一个异常丰收的年份。除了上文提到的米切尔，多伦多的贾马尔·希德 (Jamal Shead) 、迈阿密的佩勒·拉尔森 (Pelle Larsson) 、菲尼克斯的奥索·伊戈达罗 (Oso Ighodaro) 、金州的昆汀·波斯特 (Quinten Post) 以及孟菲斯的凯姆·斯宾塞 (Cam Spencer) 和杰伦·威尔斯 (Jaylen Wells) ，在次轮被选中后都有所贡献。除此之外，还有底特律的落选秀丹尼斯·詹金斯 (Daniss Jenkins) （他是东部最强球队的轮换球员！）和丹佛的斯宾塞·琼斯 (Spencer Jones) 。
然而，这些球员与每年占据选秀首轮前半段的（大多是）大一新秀有着不同的时间线。而那些才是我想讨论的人，因为他们中的许多人——比如里萨谢——正处于十字路口。现在是他们第二个赛季的后期，在第三个赛季结束、具备续约资格之前，确立起具备首发价值的长期地位，对他们来说至关重要。
以霍兰德为例。作为那一年我榜单上的头号球员（呃……），他加盟了一支底特律活塞队，但这支球队：A) 已经拥有一名球风类似的球员奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) ；B) 本赛季立即翻身并成为一支精英强队。作为一个投射不稳球队中的不稳投手，霍兰德职业生涯的三分命中率仅为23.4%，在底角经常被对手直接放空。
即便如此，他的高光时刻总是充满能量，霍兰德在防守、篮板以及攻防转换中的奔袭都极具威胁。周一在输给圣安东尼奥的比赛中，他贡献了15分11个篮板，是底特律为数不多的亮点之一（“我觉得他表现得很棒，”比克斯塔夫说道）；他拥有大前锋级别的篮板率，全联盟第六高的抢断率，而且他现在只有20岁。
上个月对阵金州勇士队的比赛中，罗纳德·霍兰德二世发起快攻。(Cary Edmondson / Imagn Images)
“我们相信他是一名顶级的快攻终结者，”比克斯塔夫说，“即使在阵地战中，当他获得空间并找到空隙时，他也能杀入内线，他能命中罚球（本赛季命中率为80%）……他在防守端总是充满拼劲和能量。”
“对他来说，现在的关键是找到在进攻端的生态位，学习如何产生影响以及应对对手的防守。我认为他的空切意识可以达到顶级，因为球队的防守方式决定了这一点，他只需要学会阅读防守并保持更好的稳定性。”
在活塞队目前的争胜时间线上，霍兰德能达到那个高度吗？他能成为一名首发吗？或者，他是否拥有足够的交易价值，能换回一名与汤普森更互补的首发球员？这一切似乎都取决于霍兰德在下个交易截止日前的几个月里能取得多大的进步。
我重点关注霍兰德是因为我在选秀之夜非常看好他，但至少还有其他七名2024届的首轮大一秀也处于类似的境地。（数据截至周四赛前）：
- 休斯顿火箭队的里的·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard) 是探花秀，他在西部第二号种子的新秀年几乎没怎么上场，本赛季必须在一支有争冠抱负的球队中争夺替补时间。谢泼德身高6英尺2英寸，体型偏小，不是天生的控卫，且在篮下终结困难。但另一方面，三分投射（每100回合出手12.7次，命中率39.0%）正是空间极度匮乏的火箭队所急需的，而他的防守预判让他的抢断率几乎与霍兰德持平。仅凭投篮威胁，他就是一名轮换球员，但他能否达到超越这个层次、接替弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 成为休斯顿首发的水平？
- 夏洛特黄蜂队的提贾尼·萨隆 (Tidjane Salaun) 是6号秀，作为一名来自欧洲的青少年，他的新秀赛季表现挣扎——实际上比里萨谢还要挣扎——但在大二赛季低调地迎来了爆发。他能投出43.6%的三分球，同时积极冲抢篮板、下快攻，对于一名前锋来说，他的体型优势非常明显。萨隆肯定能成为某种类型的轮换球员。然而，他并没有提供太多的自主得分能力，上限可能是一个“3D+能量型”的双能锋。此外，黄蜂队已经准备好赢球了，而他被埋在了深厚的前锋轮换中，本赛季总共只打了570分钟；格兰特·威廉姆斯 (Grant Williams) 最近的回归对他也没什么好处。萨隆只有20岁，但他最好的机会是在这支球队还是在另一支球队？
- 芝加哥公牛队的马塔斯·布泽利斯 (Matas Buzelis) 是11号秀，也是霍兰德在点燃队的队友。现在他可以在公牛队大展身手了，因为公牛在交易截止日转向了彻底重建。他已经连续九场比赛出手次数上双，在周二公牛以99-131惨败给夏洛特的比赛中砍下了32分。他的三分命中率为36.7%，投射更加稳定，而且对于一名非中锋球员来说，他的协防封盖非常出色（盖帽率4.5%）。在这一名单中，布泽利斯拥有成为长期首发的最清晰路径。如果随着身体发育他能稳定地造成犯规，并在高光扣篮之余增加一些组织策应，他完全可以成为这届选秀中最好的五名球员之一。
- 俄克拉荷马城雷霆队的贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 是16号秀，在因为半月板损伤赛季报销之前，他在费城的前23场比赛表现惊艳，但本赛季重返76人后表现挣扎。他确实能投篮（今年三分命中率39.2%），但在三分线内得分困难，必须依靠高难度的抛投，而且作为一名身高6英尺3英寸的非控卫，他正处于位置尴尬期。最近被交易到雷霆队给了他一个明确的替补角色，本周在俄克拉荷马城应对后场伤病潮时，他两场比赛砍下20+。但一旦主力归阵，目前还不清楚他在如此深厚的阵容中长期角色会是什么。
- 新奥尔良鹈鹕队的伊夫·米西 (Yves Missi) 是21号秀，在他新秀赛季的某些时刻，他看起来像是一个长期的首发中锋，但这位比利时大个子的缺陷随着时间的推移变得更加明显。在大学时，他喜欢运球攻击对方内线，但作为职业球员，他的武器库还没丰富到支持这种打法。他也不会投篮，没有太多的低位进攻手段，导致他的进攻影响力极其有限，主要局限于顺下扣篮和补篮。他的护筐能力非常出色（盖帽率6.8%），但在力量对抗和篮板保护方面还不足以支撑他超越“能量型替补”的定位。
- 华盛顿奇才队的凯肖恩·乔治 (Kyshawn George) 是24号秀，他在职业生涯的第二个赛季为垫底的奇才队迈出了一大步，每100回合的数据达到了23.8分、8.5个篮板和7.4次助攻。现在的问题是，这其中有多少归功于在烂队获得的充足机会，以及一旦特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 和安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 掌控球权后，他的表现会如何。身高6英尺8英寸的乔治作为侧翼体型巨大，能投篮（今年三分命中率37.1%且产量尚可）也能传球，这使他可能成为两位球星身边强有力的弱侧牵制点；他在三分线内的终结也存在问题，如果能有更多受助攻的进球，他可能会打得更轻松。防守端，他的硬件条件在那，但他仍然频繁犯规，而且每次被吹罚时似乎都很困惑。
- 最后是犹他爵士队的艾赛亚·科利尔 (Isaiah Collier) ，作为29号秀，他在新秀赛季的大部分时间里都扮演着“摆烂司令官”的角色，但在赛季后期开始开窍。即使是现在，他看起来也像是个轮换球员，尽管打法狂野。如果他能把三分命中率提高到33%并停止把球传到看台第17排，他就是一个首发级别的球员。科利尔职业生涯的三分命中率只有26%，但他能冲击内线，并利用体型制造混乱，而且他在第二年大幅提升了终结能力（两分球命中率56.2%）。三比一的助攻失误比是控球安全性进步的迹象，但科利尔作为次要球员时的坏传球实在太多，离谱的高抛传球是一个尤为突出的问题。
目前，让我们暂且不谈这些球员能否成为球星，把目标定得稍低一点：他们中有多少人能转型为值得续约的核心球员或长期首发？就此而言，是否有人能摆脱职业生涯的糟糕开局，在未来一两年内脱颖而出，就像2023届新秀基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George)（犹他）和安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black)（奥兰多）本赛季的表现那样？
随着2024届新秀免费的“练级时间”迅速枯竭，现在是拿出表现的时候了。在这个弱肉强食的联盟里，里萨谢、霍兰德和他们的同级生们必须要么凭实力赢得位置，要么将其让位给更优秀的球员。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Zaccharie Risacher, Ronald Holland and the 2024 NBA Draft class are at a crossroads
Zaccharie Risacher, Ronald Holland and the 2024 NBA Draft class are at a crossroads
DETROIT — The NBA can be an unforgiving league. Even for lottery picks.
On my swing through the Great Lakes region, I saw the San Antonio Spurs’ four successful lottery picks combine for 70 points to lead them to a huge win in Detroit. One night later, I saw Jeremy Sochan, late of the Spurs, play five scoreless minutes in the New York Knicks’ loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
So it goes for premium draft choices. They spend the first year or two of their careers in a protective cocoon that guarantees them some combination of minutes, starts and touches regardless of their performance, but situations can devolve quickly if results don’t follow. Sochan, the ninth pick in the 2022 draft, was the Spurs’ opening-day starting point guard in the fall of 2023 and played 30 minutes a game that season. By the fall of 2025, he was getting DNPs.
Mileage may vary depending on the team and players’ particular situations, especially if a lottery pick ends up with a team that isn’t rebuilding (or overtly tanking). Detroit’s Ronald Holland II, for instance, was the fifth pick in 2024 but has had to carve out a role on a Pistons team that has the NBA’s best record.
“Normally, a guy who’s drafted in his spot gets 38 minutes to make mistakes,” Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff said. “He’s had to learn through a role.”
Nonetheless, it’s amazing how often the cocoon’s insulation starts wearing thin right around this point, just after the trade deadline of a player’s second season. This week’s move by the Atlanta Hawks to pull Zaccharie Risacher — the top pick in the 2024 draft — from the starting lineup was a perfect example.
At a micro level, it was a decision by one team about one player, and it has nothing to do with what the Pistons or Utah Jazz or whoever decide to do with their young players. At a macro level, however, it was a larger statement about where we are on the timeline. After 18 months, the only reason to continue starting Risacher was if he was actually good enough to start. He wasn’t.
For the largely disappointing 2024 draft class, nearing the end of their respective second seasons in the league, the move represents a wider acknowledgement that we’re done with charity minutes and gifting starting roles. After roughly 140 NBA games, it’s time for them to put up or shut up, and for their teams to worry a whole lot less about the sunk cost of where a player was drafted.
Take a look at that 2024 group: Risacher is hardly alone in delivering production that falls short of his draft position. It’s been a rough go, especially if you focus on the top 20 picks where most of the upside lies. Only two players from that group — Stephon Castle of San Antonio and Alex Sarr of Washington — could reasonably be named as one of their team’s three best players.
Setting the bar lower, just four others — Portland’s Donovan Clingan, Miami’s Kel’El Ware, Cleveland’s Jaylon Tyson and Oklahoma City’s Ajay Mitchell — have established themselves as starting-caliber players. Of them, only Clingan was picked in the lottery. (Memphis’ Zach Edey will join this list if he can stay healthy, but that looks like an Edey-sized “if” at the moment.)
Other first-rounders, such as Holland, have had moments, but it still feels like their careers are on a knife’s edge, ready to tip either way. And if a few of them don’t emerge soon, the top of that 2024 draft is looking … yikes.
Of the 37 picks before Mitchell, it’s amazing how many of them are already at some kind of career crossroads. Less than two years in, picks Nos. 8, 16, 17, 23, 26 and 33 have already been traded, waived or both. (Dalton Knecht’s trade was rescinded, but still.) The 10th pick, Cody Williams, has been bad enough that his team was fined for playing him in a fourth quarter. Twelve of the top 37 picks have seen fewer than 1,000 NBA minutes — including the eighth, 12th and 13th picks — and none of the 12 seem likely to increase that total next season appreciably.
That total would be far greater if it weren’t for charity minutes from tanking or rebuilding teams. With nearly all those teams pivoting toward genuinely trying next season, those minutes seem highly endangered. That list notably includes Williams, above, but also Washington’s Bub Carrington (leading the class in minutes despite ranking in the bottom five in BPM) and a few others.
If there’s a positive, it’s that 2024 was an unusually fertile draft for late-blooming role players who left school as upperclassmen. In addition to Mitchell above, Toronto’s Jamal Shead, Miami’s Pelle Larsson, Phoenix’s Oso Ighodaro, Golden State’s Quinten Post and Memphis’ Cam Spencer and Jaylen Wells all have delivered after being picked in the second round. Also in that vein were the undrafted Daniss Jenkins of Detroit (a rotation player on the East’s best team!) and Spencer Jones of Denver.
However, those guys are on a different timeline from the (mostly) one-and-dones who populate the top half of the draft’s first round each year. And those are the guys I want to discuss, because so many of them — like Risacher — are at a crossroads. It’s late in their second season, and it behooves them to establish starting-caliber, long-term value by the end of their third season, when they become extension-eligible.
Take Holland, for instance. The top player on my board that year (errrr …), he went to a Pistons team that A) already had a similar player in Ausar Thompson and B) turned the corner immediately and became an elite team this season. An iffy shooter on a team full of iffy shooters, Holland is at 23.4 percent from 3 for his career and is left unguarded from the corners.
And yet, his best moments come with a supercharged energy, with Holland defending, rebounding and flying down the court in transition. His 15 points and 11 rebounds Monday in a loss to San Antonio was one of Detroit’s few bright spots (“I thought he was awesome,” said Bickerstaff); he has the rebound rate of a power forward, the league’s sixth-highest steal rate and is still only 20 years old.
Ronald Holland II initiates a fast break against the Golden State Warriors last month. (Cary Edmondson / Imagn Images)
“We believe he’s an elite transition attacker,” Bickerstaff said. “Even in the half court, when he gets his space and finds those gaps, he can get downhill, he makes his free throws [80 percent this season]… He’s always putting forth effort (and) energy on the defensive end.
“For him, it’s finding that niche on offense and how he can be impactful and how teams defend him. I think his cut game can be elite because of the way that team is defended and just learning to read those and be more consistent at that.”
Can Holland get to that point on the Pistons’ timeline? Is there a starter in here, or perhaps, is there enough trade value to bring a starter back who is more complementary with Thompson? So much seems to depend on the progress Holland can make in the coming months before the next trade deadline.
Holland is a guy I’m focused on because I was so high on him on draft night, but at least seven other one-and-done 2024 first-rounders are in similar straits. (Stats are entering Thursday’s games.):
- The Houston Rockets’ Reed Sheppard, the third pick, hardly played his rookie year on the West’s second seed and had to earn bench minutes this season on a club with title aspirations. Sheppard is undersized at 6-foot-2, not a natural point guard and struggles to finish in the paint. On the other hand, his 3-point bombing (39.0 percent on 12.7 attempts per 100 possessions) is desperately needed on a spacing-starved Rockets squad, and his defensive anticipation gives him a steal rate that nearly matches Holland’s. He’s a rotation player based on his shooting threat alone, but can he reach a level beyond that where he succeeds Fred VanVleet as Houston’s starter?
- The Charlotte Hornets’ Tidjane Salaun, the sixth pick, had a rough rookie season as a teenager coming over from Europe — much rougher than Risacher’s, actually — but has low-key blossomed as a sophomore. Making 43.6 percent from 3 while crashing the glass, running the floor and being generally huge for a forward, Salaun is certainly a rotation piece of some kind. However, he doesn’t offer much shot creation and may top out as a “3s-plus-energy” combo forward. Also, the Hornets are ready to win, and he’s been buried in a deep forward rotation, only playing 570 total minutes this season; the recent return of Grant Williams doesn’t help. Salaun is only 20, but will his best shot come on this roster or a different one?
- The Chicago Bulls’ Matas Buzelis, the 11th pick and Holland’s former G League Ignite teammate, can now explore the studio space on a Bulls team that leaned into a rebuild at the trade deadline. He has double-figure shot attempts in nine straight games and scored 32 while the Bulls were getting obliterated by Charlotte 131-99 on Tuesday. At 36.7 percent from 3, he’s also shooting more consistently, and for a non-center, his secondary rim protection is phenomenal (4.5 percent block rate). Buzelis also has the best pathway to being a long-term starter of anyone on this list. If he can just draw fouls with some consistency as his body fills out and add a dose of playmaking in between the highlight dunks, he can be one of the five best players from this draft.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jared McCain, the 16th pick, had an electric first 23 games in Philadelphia before a season-ending meniscus injury and struggled when he returned to the Sixers this season. He can definitely shoot (39.2 percent from 3 this year), but he struggles to score inside the arc, where he has to rely on difficult floaters and runners, and is caught between positions as a 6-3 non-point guard. A recent trade to the Thunder has given him a defined role off the bench, and he’s had two 20-point games this week while Oklahoma City navigates a series of backcourt injuries, but once the cavalry comes back, it’s not clear what his long-term role can be on such a loaded roster.
- The New Orleans Pelicans’ Yves Missi, the 21st pick, looked like a long-term starting center at points in his rookie season, but the Belgian big man’s warts have become more apparent over time. He liked to attack opposing bigs off the dribble in college but doesn’t have enough in his bag yet to play that way as a pro. He also can’t shoot and doesn’t have much of a post game, resulting in a limited offensive impact mostly confined to rim-runs and put-backs. The rim-protection is electric (6.8 percent block rate), but there isn’t enough physicality or rebounding alongside it to stamp him as more than an energy backup right now.
- The Washington Wizards’ Kyshawn George, the 24th pick, has taken a major step forward for the doormat Wizards in his second season, with per-100-possession rates of 23.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists. Now the question is how much of that owes to the ample opportunity he gets on such a bad team and what his game looks like once Trae Young and Anthony Davis dominate possession. The 6-8 George is huge for a wing and can shoot (37.1 percent from 3 this year on decent volume) and pass, and that could make him a potent weakside player next to the two stars; he also struggles to complete plays inside the arc and might have an easier time with more assisted baskets. Defensively, the tools are there, but he still fouls with abandon and seems bewildered every time he’s whistled.
- Finally, there’s the Utah Jazz’s Isaiah Collier, the 29th pick, who was a tank commander for much of his rookie season before turning the corner late in the year. He looks like a rotation piece even now, albeit a wild one, but he’s a starting-caliber player if he can make a third of his 3-pointers and stop throwing the ball into Row 17. Collier is only a 26 percent career 3-point shooter, but he can get downhill and create havoc with his size and has improved his finishing ability (56.2 percent on 2s) substantially in his second year. A three-to-one rate of assists to turnovers is a sign of progress on the ball security front, but Collier makes way too many bad passes for a secondary player, with wayward lobs a particularly glaring issue.
For the moment, let’s forget stardom for these guys and set our sights slightly lower: How many of them can turn the corner into extension-worthy core pieces or long-term starters? For that matter, can any of them shake off slow starts to their careers and emerge in the next year or two, much as 2023 draftees Keyonte George (Utah) and Anthony Black (Orlando) have this season?
With the tide of free “developmental” minutes quickly receding for this 2024 class, it’s now time to deliver. In a dog-eat-dog league, Risacher, Holland and their classmates must either earn their minutes and roles or cede them to better players.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic