By Scott Phillips | The Athletic, 2026-02-26 19:54:58
在其功勋卓著的名人堂生涯中，菲尔·杰克逊 (Phil Jackson) 经常能以独特的方式传道授业。在漫长的NBA常规赛磨砺中，杰克逊一方面要驾驭篮球史上那些性格最傲气的球员，一方面还要保持敏锐的洞察力，他经常利用赛季中的挑战来让球员们保持专注。
近年来，一个在普通NBA球迷中广为流传的“杰克逊法则”便是“40胜先于20负”定律。历史数据表明，如果一支NBA球队在常规赛中比遭遇20场失利更早拿到40场胜利，那么这支球队就有很大机会夺得NBA总冠军。过去19个NBA总冠军中，有惊人的18个符合“40胜20负”的标准，如果追溯得更久，这一准则的根基则更为深厚。
随着波士顿凯尔特人队 (Boston Celtics) 在周三晚上负于丹佛掘金队 (Denver Nuggets) ——并以38胜20负的战绩失去竞争“40胜20负”的资格——2025-26赛季正式产生了三支候选球队。俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder)、圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs) 和底特律活塞队 (Detroit Pistons) 成为了这一精英常规赛俱乐部的最新成员，并与总冠军产生了强有力的潜在联系。
当然，并非所有达成“40胜20负”的球队都铁定能赢得2026年NBA总冠军。其他许多竞争对手也值得关注。如果近年的NBA季后赛有什么启示的话，那就是仍有许多危险的劲旅在暗中蛰伏。
“40胜20负”定律背后的强劲夺冠基因
NBA历史表明，雷霆、马刺和活塞在冲击总冠军的过程中处于非常有利的位置。《The Athletic》的NBA作家劳·默里 (Law Murray) 对“40胜20负”及其在数十年NBA比赛中的价值进行了深入研究。自1979年引入三分线后的现代篮球时代，该定律的支持数据尤为强劲，但它依然能够跨越大多数NBA时代。
“我是菲尔·杰克逊确立的‘40胜20负’定律的坚定拥护者，”默里说道，“在NBA历史上的79个冠军中，只有17个是在未能达成‘40胜20负’的情况下夺冠的，占比仅为21.5%。此外，在三分球时代（1979年至今）以来，只有四支球队在未达到这一标准的情况下夺冠（占比8.7%）。”
“而且过去19个冠军中有18个[达成了40胜20负]。唯一的例外是2021年的密尔沃基雄鹿队，即便如此，雄鹿队当时在总决赛中击败的也是一支符合‘40胜20负’标准的球队——菲尼克斯太阳队。”
尽管雷霆、马刺和活塞在历史数据上占据优势，但目前的NBA夺冠赔率并不一定认同这一点。在上赛季夺冠后，俄克拉荷马城依然是头号夺冠热门。但在雷霆之后，各大体育博彩公司都将掘金排在马刺之前，而克利夫兰骑士队 (Cleveland Cavaliers) 和凯尔特人则排在活塞前面。
对于本赛季未达到“40胜20负”状态的球队来说，历史表明，他们几乎肯定需要击败雷霆、马刺或活塞中的某一组合才能问鼎冠军。
“目标永远是成为‘40胜20负’的竞争者。但退而求其次，就是成为那支能击败‘40胜20负’竞争者的球队，”默里表示，“这就是2021年雄鹿队所做的。2006年的迈阿密热火队也是如此，他们击败了活塞挺进总决赛，随后在总决赛中战胜了达拉斯独行侠队。2004年的活塞队则是击败印第安纳步行者队进入总决赛，造就了三分球时代唯一一次总决赛双方均非‘40胜20负’竞争者的对决[对阵湖人]。1995年的火箭队可谓经历了联盟史上最艰难的卫冕之路，每一轮都在和‘40胜20负’的竞争者对抗（爵士、太阳、马刺、魔术）。”
尽管在未达标“40胜20负”的球队中，掘金、骑士和凯尔特人呼声很高，但随着季后赛临近，纽约尼克斯队 (New York Knicks)、休斯顿火箭队 (Houston Rockets) 和明尼苏达森林狼队 (Minnesota Timberwolves) 同样极具威胁。
“在杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 的带领下，凯尔特人一直在东部保持竞争力，而杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 则是联盟许久未见的、最令人好奇的赛季末伤愈复出‘变数’之一，”默里说道，“尼克斯拥有足够的火力，且刚刚打进过分区决赛。火箭拥有凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 和强悍的防守。掘金在2023年夺冠，拥有全联盟最强的进攻。骑士自元旦以来打出了联盟最好的篮球。而森林狼已经连续两次打进西部决赛了。”
另一项需要跨越的关键里程碑
在季后赛开始前，另一个值得关注的细节是竞争者们在常规赛剩余阶段能否将失场数控制在30场以内。
在“40胜20负”的基础上进一步观察，1995年的休斯顿火箭和2006年的迈阿密热火是自1979年以来，仅有的两支在常规赛失利30场或以上仍夺冠的球队。2004年的活塞和2021年的雄鹿虽然没能达成“40胜20负”，但仍将常规赛负场控制在30场以下，其中密尔沃基受益于因疫情缩减至72场的常规赛。
近年来，2022年的金州勇士和2023年的丹佛掘金在达成“40胜20负”后，最终常规赛均以29负收官。2022年的勇士克服了伤病缠身的7胜16负低迷期，随后赢下常规赛最后五场，并在季后赛全速冲刺。丹佛在3月和4月表现平平，仅取得9胜10负，但在极具统治力的2023年季后赛征程中，他们打出了16胜4负的战绩。
对于本赛季任何一支“40胜20负”的球队来说，除非遭遇灾难性的变故，否则负场数很难接近30场。但如果你相信冠军会产生于头号热门之外，那么这些球队最好能以稳健的态势结束常规赛。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Phil Jackson's 40-20 rule: These 3 NBA teams meet a key indicator for championship success
Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule: These 3 NBA teams meet a key indicator for championship success
During his decorated Hall of Fame career, Phil Jackson routinely found unique ways to offer words of wisdom. Navigating some of the biggest egos in basketball history while trying to stay sharp during the grind of the NBA regular season, Jackson regularly used in-season challenges to keep his players focused.
One Jackson statute that’s gained traction with common NBA fans over the last several years is the “40 before 20” rule. History indicates that if an NBA team reaches 40 wins during the regular season before 20 losses, that team has a credible chance at an NBA championship. A staggering 18 of the last 19 NBA champions fit the 40-before-20 criteria, with even deeper roots the further back you go.
With the Boston Celtics losing to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night — and falling out of 40-20 consideration with a 38-20 record — the 2025-26 season officially offers three candidates. The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons are the newest members of the exclusive regular-season club with strong potential ties to the championship.
Of course, it isn’t a foregone conclusion that a 40-before-20 team will win the 2026 NBA championship. Plenty of other contenders are worth keeping an eye on. If recent NBA playoffs are any indication, there are plenty of dangerous franchises lurking.
Strong title pedigree from 40-20 rule
NBA history indicates the Thunder, Spurs and Pistons are strongly positioned to make a title push. Law Murray, an NBA writer for The Athletic, extensively researched “40 before 20” and its value over decades of NBA play. The 40-20 rule has particularly strong backing in the modern era, after the 3-point line was added in 1979. But the rule still transcends across most NBA eras.
“I’m a strong believer of the 40 before 20 rule that Phil Jackson established,” Murray said. “Of the 79 champions in NBA history, only 17 won the title after failing to win 40 games before they lost 20 games. That’s 21.5 percent. Moreover, only four teams in the 3-point line era (since 1979) have won a championship without being a 40-before-20 contender (8.7 percent).
“And 18 of the last 19 champions [have cleared 40 before 20]. The exception was the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, and even the Bucks had to beat a 40-before-20 team in the NBA Finals in the Phoenix Suns.”
While the Thunder, Spurs and Pistons have history on their sides, current NBA title odds don’t necessarily see it that way. Oklahoma City remains the heavy title favorite after last season’s championship. But after the Thunder, the major sportsbooks all list the Denver Nuggets ahead of the Spurs, while the Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics remain in front of the Pistons.
For the teams that didn’t reach 40-before-20 status this season, history shows they’ll almost assuredly need to beat some combination of either the Thunder, Spurs or Pistons in order to claim a championship.
“The goal is always to be a 40-before-20 contender. But the next best thing is to be the team that can beat a 40-before-20 contender,” Murray said. “That’s what the 2021 Bucks did. That’s what the 2006 Miami Heat did, knocking off the Pistons to get to the NBA Finals and then beating the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals. The 2004 Pistons beat the Indiana Pacers to get to the Finals and set up the only NBA Finals in the 3-point line era that featured two teams that weren’t 40-before-20 contenders [against the Lakers]. The 1995 Rockets arguably had the toughest road to repeat in league history, going through 40-before-20 contenders in every round (Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Magic).”
Although the Nuggets, Cavaliers and Celtics hold strong title odds among teams that didn’t qualify for 40-before-20 status, the New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves also remain dangerous with the postseason approaching.
“The Celtics have stayed relevant in the East with Jaylen Brown leading the way, and Jayson Tatum represents one of the most intriguing late season injury-return wild cards the league has seen in a long time,” Murray said. “The Knicks have the firepower and were just in the Conference Finals. The Rockets have Kevin Durant and a strong defense. The Nuggets won in 2023 and have the best offense in the league. The Cavaliers have played the best basketball in the league since New Year’s Day. And the Timberwolves have been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals.”
Another key milestone to clear
One interesting wrinkle to keep tabs on before the playoffs is whether contenders stay under 30 losses the remainder of the regular season.
To go a step further from 40-20, the 1995 Houston Rockets and 2006 Miami Heat are the only NBA champions since 1979 with 30 or more losses during the regular season. The 2004 Pistons and 2021 Bucks didn’t reach 40-before-20 status, yet still stayed under 30 losses for the regular season, with Milwaukee being aided by a COVID-shortened 72-game regular season.
In recent years, the 2022 Golden State Warriors and 2023 Denver Nuggets both finished with 29 regular-season losses after clearing 40-before-20 status. The 2022 Warriors overcame an injury-riddled 7-16 stretch before winning their final five games of the regular season and turning on the jets in the postseason. Denver finished a sluggish 9-10 across March and April before a dominant 2023 postseason run saw them go 16-4.
It would take catastrophic misfortunes for any 40-before-20 team to come close to 30 regular-season losses this season. But if you believe a title can come from outside the top favorites, it’s probably best that they close the regular season in solid form.
By Scott Phillips, via The Athletic