By Scott Phillips | The Athletic, 2026-02-26 19:54:58
在菲尔·杰克逊 (Phil Jackson) 辉煌的名人堂生涯中，他经常能找到独特的方式来传授智慧。在NBA漫长的常规赛磨炼中，杰克逊在应对篮球史上一些最强个性的球员时，经常通过赛季内的挑战来让球员保持专注。
近年来，一个在普通NBA球迷中广为流传的杰克逊法则便是“20负前拿到40胜”准则。历史表明，如果一支NBA球队在常规赛中先拿到40胜而失利场次不足20场，那么这支球队就有很大机会夺得NBA总冠军。在过去的19届NBA冠军中，竟有18届符合“40胜先于20负”的标准，如果你追溯得更远，这一规律的根基还会更深。
随着波士顿凯尔特人队在周三晚上负于丹佛掘金队——目前战绩为38胜20负，已无缘达成“40-20”标准——2025-26赛季正式产生了三支候选球队。俄克拉荷马城雷霆队、圣安东尼奥马刺队和底特律活塞队成为了这个精英常规赛俱乐部的新成员，他们与总冠军有着强有力的潜在联系。
当然，并非所有达成“40胜先于20负”的球队都铁定能赢得2026年的NBA总冠军。还有许多其他竞争者值得关注。如果近年来的NBA季后赛能说明什么的话，那就是仍有许多危险的豪强在暗中潜伏。
“40-20”法则背后强大的冠军血统
NBA历史表明，雷霆队、马刺队和活塞队在争冠道路上处于非常有利的位置。《The Athletic》的NBA记者劳·穆雷 (Law Murray) 深入研究了“20负前拿到40胜”准则及其在数十年NBA比赛中的价值。该准则在1979年加入三分线后的现代篮球时代尤为受到支持，但它依然能跨越大多数NBA时代。
“我是菲尔·杰克逊创立的‘20负前拿到40胜’准则的坚定信徒，”穆雷说道，“在NBA历史上的79个冠军中，只有17个是在没能达成‘40胜先于20负’的情况下夺冠的，比例仅为21.5%。此外，在三分线时代（自1979年以来），只有四支球队在不是‘40-20’竞争者的情况下赢得了总冠军（占比8.7%）。”
“而且过去19个冠军中有18个[达成了40胜先于20负]。唯一的例外是2021年的密尔沃基雄鹿队，即便如此，雄鹿队在NBA总决赛中击败的也是一支达标‘40-20’的球队——菲尼克斯太阳队。”
虽然雷霆、马刺和活塞拥有历史数据的支持，但目前的NBA夺冠赔率并不完全这么认为。在去年的冠军赛季之后，俄克拉荷马城依然是夺冠的最大热门。但在雷霆之后，各大体育博彩公司都将丹佛掘金排在马刺之前，而克利夫兰骑士和凯尔特人则排在活塞前面。
对于本赛季未达到“40胜先于20负”状态的球队来说，历史证明，他们几乎肯定需要击败雷霆、马刺或活塞中的某种组合才能捧起奥布莱恩杯。
“目标永远是成为‘40-20’竞争者。但退而求其次，就是成为那支能击败‘40-20’竞争者的球队，”穆雷说道，“这就是2021年雄鹿队所做的。这也是2006年迈阿密热火队所做的，他们击败了活塞队闯入总决赛，然后在总决赛中击败了达拉斯独行侠队。2004年的活塞队击败了印第安纳步行者队进入决赛，并促成了三分线时代唯一一次总决赛两支球队都不是‘40-20’竞争者的情况[对阵湖人]。1995年的火箭队可以说是联盟历史上卫冕之路最艰难的，每一轮都要面对‘40-20’级别的竞争者（爵士、太阳、马刺、魔术）。”
尽管掘金、骑士和凯尔特人在未达标“40-20”的球队中拥有较高的夺冠赔率，但随着季后赛临近，纽约尼克斯队、休斯顿火箭队和明尼苏达森林狼队依然极具威胁。
“在杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 的带领下，凯尔特人队在东部保持着竞争力，而杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 则是联盟许久未见的、最耐人寻味的赛季末伤愈复出的变量，”穆雷说道，“尼克斯队拥有足够的火力，而且刚刚打进过分区决赛。火箭队拥有凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 和强大的防守。掘金队在2023年夺冠，并且拥有全联盟最出色的进攻。骑士队自元旦以来打出了全联盟最好的篮球。而森林狼队已经连续两次打进西部决赛。”
另一个需要跨越的关键里程碑
在季后赛之前，一个值得关注的有趣细节是：争冠球队在常规赛剩余时间内能否将负场数控制在30场以内。
在“40-20”的基础上更进一步来看，1995年的休斯顿火箭队和2006年的迈阿密热火队是自1979年以来唯二在常规赛遭遇30场或更多失利的NBA冠军。2004年的活塞队和2021年的雄鹿队虽然没有达到“40胜先于20负”的状态，但常规赛负场仍保持在30场以下，其中密尔沃基受益于因疫情缩减至72场的常规赛。
近年来，2022年的金州勇士队和2023年的丹佛掘金队都在达成“40-20”状态后，以29场常规赛失利结束赛季。2022年的勇士队克服了伤兵满营时7胜16负的低迷期，随后赢下了常规赛最后五场，并在季后赛中发力。丹佛在3月和4月表现平平，取得了9胜10负，随后在2023年季后赛中打出统治级表现，取得了16胜4负。
对于本赛季任何一支达成“40-20”的球队来说，除非发生灾难性的不幸，否则很难接近30场常规赛失利。但如果你相信冠军会产生于顶级热门之外，那么这些球队最好能以稳健的状态结束常规赛。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Phil Jackson's 40-20 rule: These 3 NBA teams meet a key indicator for championship success
Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule: These 3 NBA teams meet a key indicator for championship success
During his decorated Hall of Fame career, Phil Jackson routinely found unique ways to offer words of wisdom. Navigating some of the biggest egos in basketball history while trying to stay sharp during the grind of the NBA regular season, Jackson regularly used in-season challenges to keep his players focused.
One Jackson statute that’s gained traction with common NBA fans over the last several years is the “40 before 20” rule. History indicates that if an NBA team reaches 40 wins during the regular season before 20 losses, that team has a credible chance at an NBA championship. A staggering 18 of the last 19 NBA champions fit the 40-before-20 criteria, with even deeper roots the further back you go.
With the Boston Celtics losing to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night — and falling out of 40-20 consideration with a 38-20 record — the 2025-26 season officially offers three candidates. The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons are the newest members of the exclusive regular-season club with strong potential ties to the championship.
Of course, it isn’t a foregone conclusion that a 40-before-20 team will win the 2026 NBA championship. Plenty of other contenders are worth keeping an eye on. If recent NBA playoffs are any indication, there are plenty of dangerous franchises lurking.
Strong title pedigree from 40-20 rule
NBA history indicates the Thunder, Spurs and Pistons are strongly positioned to make a title push. Law Murray, an NBA writer for The Athletic, extensively researched “40 before 20” and its value over decades of NBA play. The 40-20 rule has particularly strong backing in the modern era, after the 3-point line was added in 1979. But the rule still transcends across most NBA eras.
“I’m a strong believer of the 40 before 20 rule that Phil Jackson established,” Murray said. “Of the 79 champions in NBA history, only 17 won the title after failing to win 40 games before they lost 20 games. That’s 21.5 percent. Moreover, only four teams in the 3-point line era (since 1979) have won a championship without being a 40-before-20 contender (8.7 percent).
“And 18 of the last 19 champions [have cleared 40 before 20]. The exception was the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, and even the Bucks had to beat a 40-before-20 team in the NBA Finals in the Phoenix Suns.”
While the Thunder, Spurs and Pistons have history on their sides, current NBA title odds don’t necessarily see it that way. Oklahoma City remains the heavy title favorite after last season’s championship. But after the Thunder, the major sportsbooks all list the Denver Nuggets ahead of the Spurs, while the Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics remain in front of the Pistons.
For the teams that didn’t reach 40-before-20 status this season, history shows they’ll almost assuredly need to beat some combination of either the Thunder, Spurs or Pistons in order to claim a championship.
“The goal is always to be a 40-before-20 contender. But the next best thing is to be the team that can beat a 40-before-20 contender,” Murray said. “That’s what the 2021 Bucks did. That’s what the 2006 Miami Heat did, knocking off the Pistons to get to the NBA Finals and then beating the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals. The 2004 Pistons beat the Indiana Pacers to get to the Finals and set up the only NBA Finals in the 3-point line era that featured two teams that weren’t 40-before-20 contenders [against the Lakers]. The 1995 Rockets arguably had the toughest road to repeat in league history, going through 40-before-20 contenders in every round (Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Magic).”
Although the Nuggets, Cavaliers and Celtics hold strong title odds among teams that didn’t qualify for 40-before-20 status, the New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves also remain dangerous with the postseason approaching.
“The Celtics have stayed relevant in the East with Jaylen Brown leading the way, and Jayson Tatum represents one of the most intriguing late season injury-return wild cards the league has seen in a long time,” Murray said. “The Knicks have the firepower and were just in the Conference Finals. The Rockets have Kevin Durant and a strong defense. The Nuggets won in 2023 and have the best offense in the league. The Cavaliers have played the best basketball in the league since New Year’s Day. And the Timberwolves have been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals.”
Another key milestone to clear
One interesting wrinkle to keep tabs on before the playoffs is whether contenders stay under 30 losses the remainder of the regular season.
To go a step further from 40-20, the 1995 Houston Rockets and 2006 Miami Heat are the only NBA champions since 1979 with 30 or more losses during the regular season. The 2004 Pistons and 2021 Bucks didn’t reach 40-before-20 status, yet still stayed under 30 losses for the regular season, with Milwaukee being aided by a COVID-shortened 72-game regular season.
In recent years, the 2022 Golden State Warriors and 2023 Denver Nuggets both finished with 29 regular-season losses after clearing 40-before-20 status. The 2022 Warriors overcame an injury-riddled 7-16 stretch before winning their final five games of the regular season and turning on the jets in the postseason. Denver finished a sluggish 9-10 across March and April before a dominant 2023 postseason run saw them go 16-4.
It would take catastrophic misfortunes for any 40-before-20 team to come close to 30 regular-season losses this season. But if you believe a title can come from outside the top favorites, it’s probably best that they close the regular season in solid form.
By Scott Phillips, via The Athletic