By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-02-21 18:14:12
在最近一个NBA赛季开始前，我写了一篇题为《夏末杂乱无章的篮球随想》的文章。现在全明星周末已过，各支球队大约完成了三分之二的赛程，我认为是时候写篇后续了，尤其是考虑到自去年八月以来我们所获得的新认知。但有了这些认知，“杂乱无章”（disjointed）听起来似乎不再合适。那么“disjointed”的反义词是什么？“连贯”（jointed）？还是说“disjointed”属于那种没有反义词的单词？你会听到“心怀不满”（disgruntled）的员工，但你不会通过让他们变得“心怀很满”（gruntled）来解决问题。是的，那听起来更糟。如果一支球队的赛季“土崩瓦解”（unravel，原意为拆开线团），他们也不会希望在下个赛季“重组线团”（ravel 或 re-ravel）。
也许这是英语中那些无法解决的难题之一。我也许可以学坏痞兔 (Bad Bunny) 用西班牙语写这篇文章，但不幸的是，我不会说西班牙语 (no hablo Español)。因此，我将继续用英语记录我全明星赛后的“连贯”随想。
我在去年八月的文章中提到的第一个杂乱念头，是关于马刺在已经拥有达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 的情况下，又选中了迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 所产生的所谓“三后卫难题”。我想我准确预判了这一点：
“篮球界一致认可马刺选择迪伦·哈珀的决定，认为他是2025年NBA选秀中明确的榜眼人选。我听到的唯一担忧是，哈珀的技能包与预期中的首发后场组合达龙·福克斯和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔有所重叠。
“作为一名有过教练经验的人，我知道在两个后场位置上拥有三名优秀的后卫是件好事，而非坏事。原因很简单——球员不会打满48分钟。事实上，马刺去年最好的球员（你知道他的名字）场均只打33分钟。在代表马刺出战的17场比赛中，福克斯场均出场34分钟，而卡斯尔场均27分钟。如果福克斯和卡斯尔本赛季的出场时间保持不变，他们在总共96分钟的后场时间里将占据61分钟。这就为哈珀或其他人留下了35分钟的空间——例如，如果德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 在2号位和3号位之间分配时间。哈珀直到2026年3月才满20岁——对于这样一名处于新秀赛季的年轻球员来说，20分钟左右的出场时间可能刚好合适。”
全明星赛后，福克斯场均出场32分钟，卡斯尔30分钟，哈珀22分钟。三人在后场总共占据了96分钟里的84分钟。引用泰瑞·海切尔 (Teri Hatcher) 的话来说——这些时间表现得既真实又精彩。正如预期的那样，在马刺极少数只派出一名天才后卫上场的情况下，瓦塞尔肯定在2号位分担了大约12分钟的场均时间。
我还提到了前锋位置上的“交通拥堵”问题：
“三人轮换可能在马刺的前场并不那么奏效，因为马刺有五名球员在竞争这些出场时间：瓦塞尔、哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)、凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)、杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 和朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie)。”
马刺通过基本上不给索汉出场机会，并随后决定直接将其交易走，“解决”了这种拥堵。我们都希望他在尼克斯表现出色——他今年在马刺确实没有获得太多的出场时间。其余球员都是常规轮换的一部分，瓦塞尔场均出场30分钟（包括他在2号位的时间），尚帕尼作为首发场均28分钟，约翰逊在第六人位置上打得风生水起，场均24分钟，而巴恩斯（他已经忘了怎么投篮）现在开始出任替补——虽然场均仍有28分钟，但趋势处于下滑状态。
关于内线球员，我曾这样说过：
“在哈珀之后，马刺第二重要的新援是从凯尔特人签下的卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)。虽然我没怎么看过凯尔特人的比赛，但我那些凯尔特人球迷朋友们（自从我放弃支持湖人后，交这些朋友容易多了）都很喜欢他。延续关于时间的话题，科内特场均出场略超18分钟，这正好填补了维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 不在场的时间。如果你将科内特的数据翻倍，在36分钟的时间里，他场均可以得到12分、10个篮板和2次盖帽——这比上赛季马刺任何担任替补5号位的球员都要高效。”
由于马刺头号球星（你知道是谁）的一些时间限制和缺勤，科内特场均出场23分钟，高于我预测的18分钟。但预期的效率确实存在——折算成36分钟，科内特的数据为11分、10个篮板和2次盖帽——还有一些非常有效且势大力沉的掩护，为射手拉开了空间。
总而言之，我认为我季前关于马刺的“杂乱”念头实际上是非常“连贯”的。其他连贯的想法还包括：
- 马刺现在离排名第一的雷霆比离第三名还要近。如果你在赛季开始前预见到了这一点，请举手。所有举手的人，我都不信，但行吧，你们可以去洗手间了。我也可以问同样的问题：你们有没有预见到马刺对阵卫冕冠军雷霆时取得了4胜1负的战绩？但人们大概不需要去两次洗手间。（如果你确实需要，考虑一下去看急诊吧。）
- 说到第二和第三名，如果马刺不能超越俄克拉荷马城，他们真的需要稳住西部第二的位置。考虑到马刺几乎完全缺乏季后赛经验，他们将极大地受益于一个相对轻松的首轮系列赛来积累经验。排名第二可以确保获得这样的对阵。目前处于那些位置（附加赛区）的球队很可能会留在那里，因为：(1) 他们不够强或者不够健康，无法冲出7-10名的范畴；(2) 排名这四支球队之后的球队既烂，又在努力变得更烂，也就是所谓的“摆烂”。（排名第10的波特兰比第11名的孟菲斯多赢了6场。）排在第三名意味着首轮可能面对一支经受过季后赛考验的球队，比如森林狼或湖人——甚至是拥有夺冠经验的丹佛掘金。不了，谢谢。偏好第二名的另一个简单原因很显而易见：如果马刺闯过首轮，他们肯定更希望在对阵下一个对手（很可能是掘金或火箭）时拥有主场优势。
- 渴望马刺获得第二名，让我处于一种不同寻常的境地：不得不为我通常喜欢的球队——掘金的对手加油。周四晚上尤其艰难，因为那意味着要支持洛杉矶快船，看着他们以一分的优势惊险战胜掘金。而那场胜利是靠一群我从未听说过的家伙，以及一个我听过的名字——科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 拿下的。为了避免这种心理落差，我决定干脆关掉电视去读本书。
- 现在开始关注东部联盟的战绩是否太早了？我之前指出过，凯尔特人是本赛季唯一一支比马刺更令人意外、表现更成功的球队。而且看起来杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 将在三月回归球队，有足够的时间在季后赛前找回状态。截至周六，凯尔特人落后马刺三个胜场。如果这种态势保持下去，马刺将在总决赛对阵凯尔特人时拥有主场优势。我在预言这个吗？不。但如果真的发生了，我肯定会回到这篇文章，做一点小小的改动，让答案变成：“是的，你在这里抢先看到了预言！！”
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Jointed NBA thoughts after the All-Star break
Jointed NBA thoughts after the All-Star break
Before the latest NBA season began, I wrote a piece entitled End of Summer Disjointed Basketball Thoughts. Now that we are past the All-Star break, and teams have played about two-thirds of their schedules, I thought it was a good time for a follow-up, especially with all the knowledge we have gained since last August. But with that knowledge, “disjointed” doesn’t sound like the right term. What is the opposite of disjointed? Jointed? Or is disjointed one of those works without an opposite? You will hear about disgruntled employees, but you don’t fix that problem by making them “gruntled”. Yeah, that sounds worse. And if a team’s season unravels (see, for instance, the Sacramento Kings), they don’t hope to “ravel” or “re-ravel” in the following season.
Perhaps this is one of those unsolvable issues with the English language. I could go Bad Bunny and write this in Spanish, but unfortunately, no hablo Español. So I will proceed with my post-All-Star game jointed thoughts in English.
My first disjointed thought in my post from last August addressed the three-guard conundrum the Spurs had purportedly created by drafting Dylan Harper when they already had DeAron Fox and Stephon Castle. I think I nailed this one:
“The basketball universe unanimously approved the Spurs’ selection on Dylan Harper as the clear second best player in the 2025 NBA draft. The only concern I have heard is that Harper’s skills overlap with those of the anticipated starting backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
“Having coached a bit, I know that having three good guards for the two backcourt spots is a good thing, not a bad one. The reason is simple — players don’t play all 48 minutes. Indeed, the Spurs’ best player last year (you know his name) averaged just 33 minutes per game. In 17 games with the Spurs, Fox averaged 34 minutes while Castle averaged 27. If Fox and Castle play the same amount this season, they will play a total of 61 minutes out of the 96 minutes available. That leaves 35 minutes for Harper or others — for instance. if Devin Vassell splits his time between the 2 and the 3. Harper will be not be 20 years old until March 2026 — and 20 is probably about the right number of minutes for such a young player in his rookie season.”
Coming out of the All-Star break, Fox was averaging 32 minutes per game, Castle was at 30, and Harper was at 22 minutes per game. A total of 84 minutes out of the 96 available. And to quote Teri Hatcher — those minutes have been real and spectacular. As predicted, Vassell surely soaked up about 12 minutes per game playing the 2-spot on the rare occasions the Spurs play only one of their spectacular guards.
I also addressed the log-jam at the forward spots:
“The three man rotation may not work as well for the Spurs frontcourt because the Spurs have five players competing for those minutes: Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Julian Champagnie.”
The Spurs “solved” that log-jam by essentially not playing Sochan, and then electing to not play him right out of town. We all hope he does well with the Knicks — he just didn’t get significant time this year with the Spurs. The rest of the group are all part of the regular rotation, with Vassell averaging 30 minutes per game (which includes his time at the 2), Champagnie starting with 28 minutes per game, Johnson thriving in the Sixth Man role at 24 minutes, and Barnes (who has forgotten how to shoot) now coming off the bench – still averaging 28 minutes but with a downward arrow.
For the post guys, I said this:
“After Harper, the Spurs’ second most important addition was Luke Kornet, signed away from the Celtics. Although I have not watched very much Celtic basketball, my Celtics’ fan friends (easier to have those friends once I abandoned the Lakers) all really like him. Sticking with the minutes theme, Kornet averaged just over 18 minutes per game, which fits nicely into the minutes that Victor is not on the floor. If you double Kornet’s counting stats, over 36 minutes Kornet averaged 12 points, 10 boards and 2 blocks — much more productive than anyone who filled the back-up 5 role for the Spurs last season.”
Because of some minutes restrictions and missed games by the Spurs main post guy (you know who that is), Kornet has averaged 23 minutes per game, more than the 18 minutes I projected. But the predicted productivity has been there – over 36 minutes, Kornet is at 11, 10 and 2 – and some very effective and bone-crushing screens to free shooters.
All in all, I think my pre-season disjointed thoughts about the Spurs were actually pretty jointed. Other jointed thoughts:
- The Spurs are now closer to the first place Thunder than they are to third place. Raise your hand if you predicted that before the season started. All of you with your hands up, I don’t believe you, but yes, you can use the restroom. I could ask the same question about whether you predicted the Spurs’ 4-1 record against the defending champion Thunder, but people probably don’t need to use the restroom twice. (If you do, think about going to Urgent Care.)
- Speaking of second and third place, if the Spurs don’t overtake OKC, they really need to stay in that second slot in the West. With their almost total lack of play-off experience, the Spurs would greatly benefit from a fairly easy first-round series to get their feet wet. Coming in second allows such a series. The teams presently in those slots are likely to remain there because (1) they aren’t good enough or healthy enough to move up and out of the 7-10 slots and (2) the teams below those four teams both stink and are trying to stink even more, also known as “tanking”. (Portland, in 10th place, has six more wins than 11th place Memphis.) Coming in third would mean a first round series against a playoff-tested team like the Timberwolves or the Lakers — or even a Denver team with championship experience. No thank you. The second simple reason to prefer the second slot is obvious. If the Spurs get through the first round, they would much rather have home court advantage against who ever they play next— likely the Nuggets or Rockets.
- Rooting for the Spurs to come in second puts me in the unusual position of rooting against a team I generally like – the Nuggets. Thursday night was especially tough, because that meant rooting for the LA Clippers in their stunning one-point win over the Nuggets. And that win came playing a bunch of guys I have never heard of and one I have — Kawhi Leonard. To avoid the whiplash, I decided to just turn off the TV and go read a book.
- Is it too soon to start looking at Eastern Conference records? I earlier pointed out that the Celtics have been the one team even more surprisingly successful this season than the Spurs. And it looks like Jason Tatum will be joining the team in March, with enough time to ramp up before the playoffs. As of Saturday, the Celtics are three games back of the Spurs. If that holds up, the Spurs would have home-court advantage in a Finals match-up with the Celtics. Am I predicting that? No. But if that happens, I will certainly come back to this post and make some small adjustments to make the answer: “Yes, and you saw it here first!!”.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock