By Eric Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-02-21 01:22:41
就重建而言，圣安东尼奥马刺队成功实现了相对快速的翻身。从2023年的彻底推倒重建，到如今成为货真价实的竞争者，这仅仅用了三年的时间。目前，圣安东尼奥稳居西部第二，正朝着58胜的节奏迈进，这相较于仅一个赛季前的34胜将是一个巨大的跨越。
但这里是NBA。常规赛固然不错，但真正重要的是季后赛。人们普遍认为，为了真正角逐总冠军，一支球队需要先在季后赛中品尝失败的滋味。他们需要那些所谓的“季后赛伤痕”。
那么，这种说法有多准确呢？对于那些成功颠覆了常规赛地位的球队，历史对于他们在季后赛实现同样跨越的胜算又是如何评价的呢？
回顾21世纪以来的现代篮球时代，历史往往更青睐那些先在总决赛门口徘徊、而非直接破门而入的球队。极少有球队能从前一年无缘季后赛，直接跃升到次年杀入分区决赛，但这种情况确实发生过。
最典型的例子是2008年的波士顿凯尔特人队。当时波士顿已连续两年未能进入季后赛，但总经理丹尼·安吉 (Danny Ainge) 成功组建了许多人眼中的那个时代的第一支超级球队——在保罗·皮尔斯 (Paul Pierce) 身边引进了雷·阿伦 (Ray Allen) 和凯文·加内特 (Kevin Garnett) 这两位天才。这不仅结束了凯尔特人队的季后赛荒，还为他们带来了自1986年以来的首座总冠军奖杯。
接下来是2021年的菲尼克斯太阳队。菲尼克斯自2010年起就从未摸到过季后赛的门槛，却在2021年成功闯入总决赛。此前他们在奥兰多泡泡区打出了全胜战绩，但即便如此也未能获得季后赛席位。在休赛期，他们交易得到了克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)，蒙蒂·威廉姆斯 (Monty Williams) 展现了卓越的执教水准（在年度最佳教练评选中位列第二），随后他们便开启了这段征程。
再之后是2020年的洛杉矶湖人队。他们在泡泡区将连续六年的季后赛荒直接转化为了总冠军。那是勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 加盟的第二年，也是安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 到队的第一年。
詹姆斯再次让另一支球队上榜，那就是2015年的克利夫兰骑士队。在通过自由球员市场签回詹姆斯并交易得到凯文·乐福 (Kevin Love) 后，骑士队开启了连续四年在总决赛对阵金州勇士队的序幕。而在此之前，自2010年起他们的胜场数从未超过33场。
最后，2024年的印第安纳步行者队也加入了这份名单。步行者队在此前三年都缺席了季后赛，直到去年一跃杀入分区决赛。这一新的成功归功于明星控卫泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 的成长，以及明星前锋帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 的加盟。
名单到此为止。总的来说，这里存在一个微小的趋势：所有这些球队都引进了顶级天赋，并且通常是围绕一位划时代的巨星建队。
虽然历史告诉我们，大多数深远的季后赛表现都建立在前一年至少经历过首轮或次轮出局的基础上，但只要球队拥有合适的拼图，直接打出深远表现也是有先例可循的。
这支马刺队拥有合适的拼图。他们拥有划时代的巨星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，并引进了新援达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)。此外，他们身边还围绕着一群才华横溢的角色球员。虽然任务艰巨，但圣安东尼奥很有可能打破常规，将自己的名字写入上述榜单。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：The history of deep runs after playoff droughts
The history of deep runs after playoff droughts
As far as rebuilds go, the Spurs have managed a relatively quick turnaround. From tearing things down to the studs in 2023, to reaching legitimate contender status, it’s been a quick three years. Currently, San Antonio sits poised and firmly cemented in the two seed of the Western Conference, on a 58-win pace, which would be quite the jump from 34 only one season ago.
But this is the NBA. There’s the regular season, which is all fine and good, but what matters is the playoffs. And there’s a commonly held belief that in order to truly contend for a championship, a team needs to taste defeat in the playoffs first. They need those “playoff scars.”
So how true is that? For those teams that managed to invert their regular-season status, what does history say about doing the same in the postseason?
Taking a look at the modern era, since the turn of the century, history tends to favor teams knocking on the door of the Finals to just barging in. Very few teams have gone from not making the playoffs to even making the Conference Finals the very next year, but it does happen.
The prime example is the 2008 Celtics. Boston hadn’t entered the postseason in two years, but general manager Danny Ainge managed to put together what many call the first super-team of the era—adding the talents of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett alongside Paul Pierce. It not only ended the Celtics playoff drought, but it brought them their first championship since 1986.
Then there are the 2021 Phoenix Suns. Phoenix hadn’t sniffed the playoffs since 2010, but then managed to make the finals in 2021. This was following an undefeated run in the Orlando bubble, which still did not grant them a playoff birth. In the offseason, they traded for Chris Paul, Monty Williams coached his ass off (finishing 2nd in Coach of the Year voting), and they went on a run.
Next are the 2020 Lakers. They flipped a six-year playoff drought into a championship in the bubble. This was their second year with LeBron James, and their first year with Anthony Davis.
James adds to the list with the 2015 Cleveland Cavaliers. After adding him in free agency and trading for Kevin Love, the Cavs kicked off a four-year run of meeting Golden State in the Finals. This, after they hadn’t even won more than 33 games since 2010.
Finally, the 2024 Indiana Pacers round out the list. The Pacers had been absent from a postseason appearance for three years until making a leap to the Conference Finals. This new success was attributable to the development of star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, as well as the addition of star forward Pascal Siakam.
And that’s the list. Overall, there is a small trend. All of these teams have added major talent and are usually built around a generational great.
While history shows us that most deep playoff runs follow at least a first or second round exit the year prior, the precedent is there for a deep run, provided the team has the right pieces.
This Spurs team has the right pieces. They have a generational great in Victor Wemanyama and have the new addition of De’Aaron Fox. This is on top of the talented role players built around them. It won’t be easy, but it’s quite possible that San Antonio breaks the trend and adds itself to the above list.
By Eric Fritts, via Pounding The Rock