By Doug Greenberg | ESPN, 2026-02-17 23:15:00
赛季过半，NBA总冠军赔率市场中的夺冠热门格局并未发生太大变化。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 依然是2025-26赛季夺冠的最大热门，在DraftKings体育博彩公司的赔率为+130；丹佛掘金 (Denver Nuggets) 以+450的赔率稳居次席。相比赛季开始前的+200和+650，两支球队的行情均有所看涨。
丹佛掘金是季前赛期间投注者的心头好，在全国多家博彩公司的投注量和吸金量均排名榜首。DraftKings体育博彩总监约翰尼·阿韦洛 (Johnny Avello) 近期向ESPN表示，鉴于掘金自开赛以来承载的巨大投注额，他们对博彩公司而言至少存在一定的赔付风险。该队在该平台的资金占比（handle share）为16%，与雷霆并列榜首，但由于赔率略高，其潜在风险也更大。
凯撒体育博彩 (Caesars Sportsbook) NBA负责人戴维·利伯曼 (David Lieberman) 表示，热门球队赔率的下调抑制了资金的过度堆积。
“赔率较低的球队在赛季过程中往往不会吸引过多的额外投注，”他告诉ESPN，“这一年里，相关的赔付压力积累并没那么快。所以，我会说这两支球队目前已不再处于我们的高风险名单之列。”
根据赔率显示，另一支在开赛初被视为竞争者的球队是克利夫兰骑士 (Cleveland Cavaliers)。他们在季前的赔率与丹佛掘金持平，均为+650，但在经历了一个动荡的开局后，部分博彩公司的赔率一度跌至+3000。随后，在2月初，骑士从洛杉矶快船 (LA Clippers) 交易得到了詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)，并在全明星赛前赢下了哈登出战的所有比赛。目前，他们在DraftKings的赔率榜上已重回第三位，赔率为+1200。
尽管阿韦洛表示，考虑到“哈登这一级别球员的实力”，博彩公司不得不上调骑士的行情，但他和其他博彩商仍持怀疑态度，不确定他能在多大程度上帮助这支骑士队跨越季后赛的难关，毕竟哈登在季后赛的表现一直毁誉参半。
“我的意思是，他确实会有所帮助，但问题在于这种帮助会有多大，”利伯曼说道，“不过就投注者而言，我不怪他们在赔率较高时入场。从账面实力来看，我认为他们或许是东部的顶级选择之一，也许他们只是需要一点人员调整带来的冲击。”
大众投注者在一定程度上肯定了对哈登领衔的骑士的信心。在BetMGM 2月份的总冠军投注量排名中，骑士以11.9%位居第二，仅次于圣安东尼奥马刺 (San Antonio Spurs) 的13.1%。此外，骑士在本月该博彩公司关于东部冠军的投注资金占比中高居第一（30.9%）。
另一支真正获得大众青睐的球队是领跑东部的底特律活塞 (Detroit Pistons)。他们在DraftKings总冠军赔率榜上以+1500排名第五，且在该平台东部冠军的投注量中排名第二（19%）。BetMGM报告称，活塞在2月份获得的东部冠军投注单量最多（25.3%）；而theScore Bet则表示，在相近的时间段内，活塞在总冠军投注资金占比上处于领先地位（18.6%）。
“活塞全年的热度都很高，毫无疑问是东部的一股强劲势力，但那些顶尖球队也一直在吸引投注，”体育博彩北美运动交易高级总监亚德里安·霍顿 (Adrian Horton) 在邮件中写道。
东部的另外两支顶级球队——纽约尼克斯 (New York Knicks) (+1300) 和波士顿凯尔特人 (Boston Celtics) (+1500)——凭借大市场球队的地位，依然是每个赛季大众投注的热门选择。DraftKings的数据显示，尼克斯在东部冠军市场的投注单量和资金占比均处于领先地位，且在总冠军投注活跃度方面仅次于雷霆和掘金。尼克斯和凯尔特人同样位列BetMGM 2月投注热度榜的前五名。
出勤场次如何影响MVP归属
与总冠军市场类似，赛季过半，MVP赔率榜首的竞争也并无太多意外。根据DraftKings的盘口，谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 依然是极具竞争力的热门人选，赔率分别为-210和+300。
与近几个赛季的情况相同，衡量他们参选资格的一大障碍是“65场比赛”的准入门槛。由于在赛季中遭遇的伤病，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大目前还有10场比赛的缺阵额度来维持评选资格，而约基奇仅剩1场。卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) (+2000) 情况类似，还可缺阵5场；维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) (+3500) 则还有3场额度。
利伯曼表示，考虑到约基奇距离触发最低参赛场次限制已近在咫尺，他对约基奇在1月30日复出后获得的大众支持感到有些意外。这位博彩专家预计两位热门人选之一能够达标，但如果两人都未能达标，竞争将变得更加有趣。
除了前述的文班亚马，凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) (+1400) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) (+5000) 在整个赛季中也有不少投注者选择了他们的冷门高赔。这使得博彩公司在赛季末段会祈祷热门球员能保持健康。
“我们在那几位身上承担的风险稍微多一点，但看看两位热门人选——吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和约基奇，我们的情况还不错，”阿韦洛说道。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Thunder, Nuggets still big favorites, Cavaliers volatile after Harden trade
Thunder, Nuggets still big favorites, Cavaliers volatile after Harden trade
Halfway through the season, not a whole lot has changed in the favorites conversation for the NBA Finals winner market.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are still the clear favorites for the 2025-26 title, showing +130 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Denver Nuggets are still the clear second favorites at +450, improvements from +200 and +650, respectively, before the season.
Denver was a popular pick among bettors in the preseason, racking up the most bets and money at several sportsbooks across the nation. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN recently that the Nuggets are at least a minor liability for the book, given how much betting volume they’ve taken since the beginning of the season. Their 16% handle share at the book is tied with the Thunder for most on the board, but the slightly longer odds dictate a bigger hazard.
Caesars Sportsbook NBA lead David Lieberman said that the shortening of the favorites’ odds has prevented them from accumulating too much handle.
“The lower-priced teams, they just don’t get bet as much throughout the season,” he told ESPN. “The liability doesn’t rack up quite as much over the course of the year. So, I would say that those two teams are now out of a big liability status for us now.”
The other team that began the season in the contenders’ conversation, according to the odds, was the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were tied with Denver at +650 preseason but drifted to as long as +3000 at some books amid a rocky start. Then, in early February, the Cavs acquired James Harden from the LA Clippers, won every game with him before the All-Star break, and are back into the third-favorite slot at +1200 on DraftKings’ odds board.
While Avello said that the book had to shorten Cleveland’s odds because of the “quality of a player that [Harden] is,” he and other bookmakers remain skeptical of how much he can help this version of the Cavaliers get over the playoff hump, given Harden’s checkered history with postseason basketball.
“I mean, he will help, but how drastically he’ll help [is the question],” Lieberman said. “But I think as far as bettors go, I don’t blame them for getting in on that when their price was a little bit higher. I do think on paper they are maybe one of the top choices in the East, and maybe they just needed a little bit of a shake-up.”
Public bettors have at least somewhat affirmed their belief in the Harden-led Cavs, as they have attracted the second-most Finals winner bets (11.9%) at BetMGM in February, trailing only the San Antonio Spurs (13.1%). Cleveland has also taken the most money (30.9%) to win the Eastern Conference at the sportsbook during the month.
One team the public is truly buying into, though, is the East-leading Detroit Pistons, who are fifth on DraftKings’ Finals winner odds board at +1500 and have taken the second-most wagers (19%) to win the conference at the book. BetMGM reports that the Pistons have garnered the most tickets (25.3%) to win the East in February, while theScore Bet says they’ve taken the most money to win the Finals (18.6%) over roughly the same time period.
“The Pistons have been popular all year and are without question a force in the East, but those top teams all continue to draw action,” Adrian Horton, the sportsbook’s senior director of North American sports trading, said over email.
The other top two teams in the East – the New York Knicks (+1300) and Boston Celtics (+1500) – continue to be the popular public picks they tend to be each season, given their big-market status. DraftKings reports New York leading the Eastern Conference champion market in bets in handle, as well as trailing only Oklahoma City and Denver for the most action for the Finals. Both the Knicks and Celtics rank in the top five for BetMGM’s February betting as well.
How games played could impact MVP
As with the Finals market, there are few surprises at the top of the MVP odds board midway through the NBA season, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are still the hefty favorites at -210 and +300, respectively, according to DraftKings lines.
The one major complication for their candidacies, as has become the case in recent seasons, is the 65-game eligibility rule. Due to injuries they’ve sustained throughout the campaign, SGA has 10 games he can afford to miss and still be eligible, but Jokic has only one. The same goes for Luka Doncic (+2000), who can spare five games, and Victor Wembanyama (+3500), who can spare three games.
Lieberman said he was a bit surprised by the public support Jokic received once he returned to game action on Jan. 30 given how close he is to missing the minimum. The bookmaker envisions one of the two favorites being able to get across the line, but if both don’t, it gets more interesting.
Aside from the aforementioned Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham (+1400) and Jaylen Brown (+5000) have gotten a reasonable amount of action at longer odds throughout the season. It will have the books rooting for the favorites to stay healthy down the stretch.
“Those guys we’re a little bit not in great shape on, but when you look at the two chalks, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, we are in good shape,” Avello said.
By Doug Greenberg | ESPN, via ESPN