By The Athletic NBA Staff | The Athletic, 2026-01-30 10:45:10
The Athletic 的NBA团队在2025-26赛季开始前，为每支球队都献上了一份大胆预测。三个月过去了，其中一些预测看起来精准无误，而另一些则可能显得太过大胆。
以下是我们对每一条预测的复盘——既有神机妙算，也有让人摸不着头脑的。（数据截至周四比赛前。）
亚特兰大老鹰
预测： 老鹰的防守将跻身联盟前十
前景展望： 事实并非如此。在打了48场比赛后，老鹰的防守效率排名第16位，即便是在特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 只出战了其中10场比赛的情况下。尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickel Alexander-Walker) 的到来确实为球队的外线防守注入了活力，他的表现达到了最佳防守阵容的水准，但前场的情况就另当别论了。由于克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porziņģis) 仅出战17场，身高6英尺8英寸的奥涅卡·奥孔古 (Onyeka Okongwu) 被迫顶上首发中锋的位置，老鹰的阵容常常过于矮小，缺乏护筐威慑力。老鹰的两分球防守效率排名联盟第24位，而且在对手篮下出手占比这项数据上，只有一支球队比他们更高。— 约翰·霍林格 (John Hollinger)
波士顿凯尔特人
预测： 德里克·怀特将入选全明星赛
前景展望： 怀特能证明我的预测吗？恐怕很难，尽管步行者主教练里克·卡莱尔 (Rick Carlisle) 最近表示德里克·怀特理应入选全明星赛。投篮命中率只有39%是他的一个短板。不过，尽管投篮手感时好时坏，怀特还是帮助凯尔特人稳坐东部第二的位置。许多高阶数据表明，他是比赛中最具影响力的后卫之一。如果投票者无法忽视他那不稳定的投篮数据，他恐怕也只能满足于此了。— 杰伊·金 (Jay King)
布鲁克林篮网
预测： 篮网将获得一个前四顺位选秀权
前景展望： 篮网的进度稍稍有些落后。他们目前的战绩是联盟倒数第五，这让他们有42.1%的几率获得前四顺位。12月初那一波7胜3负的战绩对球队士气来说或许是件好事，但在竞争激烈的联盟垫底排名争夺中，这无疑拖了他们的后腿。除去那段时间，篮网的战绩是5胜30负，所以也许他们会重新跌回谷底，即便小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 表现出色，伊戈尔·德明 (Egor Demin) 也展现出了一些令人期待的亮点。我们会继续观察这个赛季的走向，但对他们有利的一点是，他们的竞争对手之一新奥尔良队无法控制自己的选秀权，因此没有输球的动机。— 迈克·沃尔库诺夫 (Mike Vorkunov)
夏洛特黄蜂
预测： 黄蜂将取得28场胜利
前景展望： 黄蜂目前的势头不错。他们正朝着赛季35胜左右的目标前进，并且最近展现出了巨大的进步迹象。他们本赛季的进攻效率排名联盟第六，但自12月15日以来，他们的进攻效率高居联盟第二，并在此期间取得了13胜10负的战绩。根据Tankathon网站的数据，黄蜂剩余赛程的难度排在联盟第18位，如果这种进步是可持续的，那么附加赛并非遥不可及；他们目前仅落后第十名的亚特兰大2.5个胜场。— 迈克·沃尔库诺夫 (Mike Vorkunov)
芝加哥公牛
预测： 公牛将无缘附加赛
前景展望： 不管怎么说，我做出这个预测的理由依然成立。尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vučević) 作为护筐者的表现依旧堪称灾难。如果我们不把马塔斯·布泽利斯 (Matas Buzelis) 算作侧翼，那么芝加哥最好的侧翼就是艾萨克·奥科罗 (Isaac Okoro)，对于这支需要多点开花才能赢球的队伍来说，这笔夏日引援的重要性显得有些不合常理。而且，球队的年轻化进程虽然比近几年的公牛队更令人鼓舞，但并未预示着光明的未来。但尽管如此，公牛队实际上正稳稳地朝着——没错，你没猜错！——又一个附加赛席位迈进。公牛目前以23胜24负的战绩排在东部第十。高强度的进攻体系，以及比利·多诺万 (Billy Donovan) 从特雷·琼斯 (Tre Jones) 和杰伦·史密斯 (Jalen Smith) 等球员身上挖掘出的潜力，最终使得球队的下限太高，导致他们很难彻底无缘附加赛。只是，还不足以赢下真正有意义的比赛。对不起了，公牛球迷们。我本该更大胆一些的。— 乔尔·洛伦齐 (Joel Lorenzi)
克利夫兰骑士
预测： 朗佐·鲍尔将重振职业生涯
前景展望： 鲍尔一直与骑士队格格不入，并且正经历着他职业生涯中最糟糕的投篮赛季。他还缺席了大量比赛。由于达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 整个赛季都因伤缺阵，他未能胜任骑士队替补控卫的角色。鲍尔需要的是一支不会过分依赖他的球队（就像去年的克利夫兰，当时泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome) 在一支健康的队伍里用更少的上场时间打出了高效表现）。但这不仅仅是适配性的问题，鲍尔自身的表现也确实非常挣扎。到目前为止，看来我那个预测是错了。— 乔·瓦尔登 (Joe Vardon)
达拉斯独行侠
预测： 防守会很好……但算不上顶尖
前景展望： 我对这个预测感觉不错。独行侠目前每百回合失分排名联盟第九，他们的防守水平很高，但远不及联盟防守效率第一和第二的俄克拉荷马城雷霆和底特律活塞。别忘了，达拉斯的目标曾是成为防守第一的球队。独行侠本赛季最大的问题是可以预见的：他们得分困难，进攻效率排在联盟第27位。夏季签下的丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell) 本应在这方面提供帮助，但他却被按在了板凳席上。— 克里斯蒂安·克拉克 (Christian Clark)
丹佛掘金
预测： 掘金将赢得西部冠军
前景展望： 这个预测显然要到春天才能见分晓，但目前看来它相当靠谱。掘金非常出色。他们是一支有深度、有技术、有天赋且充满渴望的球队。自新年伊始，他们几乎一直在缺少尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 的情况下比赛，并且表现得相当不错。随着约基奇即将回归，以及他身边新发掘出的阵容深度，掘金应该有充分的机会成为西部挑战俄克拉荷马城雷霆的主要对手，尽管阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 的腿筋再次受伤对他们来说是个沉重的打击。— 托尼·琼斯 (Tony Jones)
底特律活塞
预测： 凯德·坎宁安将在MVP投票中排名前三
前景展望： 我简直就像能预见未来一样。就目前的情况来看，我确实得给自己点个赞。坎宁安现在还未完全进入MVP投票前三的行列，但他无疑有充分的理由参与竞争。他已经是一名全明星首发球员，看起来将连续第二次入选NBA最佳阵容，并且是底特律重返东部顶尖行列的推动力。如果他能继续保持这种势头，并且活塞能继续赢球，他应该会在该奖项的评选中获得更多青睐。— 亨特·帕特森 (Hunter Patterson)
我们十月份对斯蒂芬·库里、德雷蒙德·格林和金州勇士的预测现在看来不太妙。(David Sherman / NBAE via Getty Images)
金州勇士
预测： 勇士将至少闯入西部决赛
前景展望： 金州勇士要实现这个预测，健康是首要前提。而当吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 遭遇前十字韧带撕裂时，那个梦想也随之破灭。即便在这场足以改变赛季走向的伤病发生之前，勇士队的表现也从未达到他们所期望的水平，尽管他们在巴特勒倒下前一度在16场比赛中赢下12场，并开始找到稳定状态。没有了他，勇士队就是没有足够的拼图去最高水平的舞台上竞争。— 尼克·弗里德尔 (Nick Friedell)
休斯敦火箭
预测： 阿尔佩伦·申京的三双次数将排名联盟第二
前景展望： 这个预测的进展不太顺利。申京打出了全明星级别的水平，场均6.4次助攻也创下了职业生涯新高。他的影响力正如我所预期的那样，但他只拿到了一次三双，而且那还是在一场加时赛中得到的。我曾在赛季前写道：“如果他拿不到至少15次三双，我会感到惊讶。” 尽管他的助攻数有所上升，但申京本赛季只有三场比赛助攻数达到或超过10次。我预测背后的思路是正确的，只是我有点过于雄心勃勃了。— 威廉·吉洛里 (William Guillory)
印第安纳步行者
预测： 步行者将在没有泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿的情况下闯入季后赛第二轮
前景展望： 好吧，这毕竟是个大胆预测。在去年12月帮助主教练里克·卡莱尔取得执教生涯第999场胜利后，印第安纳遭遇了队史最长的13连败。步行者花了一个月的时间才让卡莱尔的胜场数达到1000。他们目前在东部排名垫底，每一场胜利对球队士气都是一次鼓舞。正打出职业生涯最佳表现之一的帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 曾谈到球队缺乏努力和活力的问题，而且他们正面临多名球员的伤病困扰，不仅仅是哈利伯顿。虽然季后赛——无论哪一轮——都已是奢望，但希望他们能在这个缺少哈利伯顿的赛季里，让情况稍微好转一些。— 莎凯亚·泰勒 (Shakeia Taylor)
洛杉矶快船
预测： 快船将追平泰伦·卢执教下的最佳20场开局战绩
前景展望： 最佳开局？不如说是泰伦·卢 (Tyronn Lue) 执教下的最差开局吧。我曾暗示快船队对慢热开局这种事已经习以为常了。他们不仅没有摆脱这个趋势，反而跌入了深渊，以5胜15负开局，随后在6胜21负时跌至谷底。当然了，快船队随后又开启了他们的赛季，在接下来的19场比赛中赢下了16场。我能做的只有摇摇头，并提醒自己，从今往后，快船的赛季要从圣诞节才算真正开始。— 劳·穆雷 (Law Murray)
洛杉矶湖人
预测： 勒布朗·詹姆斯将入选NBA最佳阵容
前景展望： （用艾迪·维达 (Eddie Vedder) 的唱腔）“哦哦哦，我，哦哦哦，我还活着！” 勒布朗仍有资格参选NBA最佳阵容，并且已经开始打背靠背的比赛了。但我的预测已经毫无容错空间。他下一场缺席的比赛就将使他的出场次数低于65场的评奖门槛。一旦他错过了那场比赛，NBA就会对他说（用艾迪·维达的唱腔）：“这不属于你。” — 丹·沃伊克 (Dan Woike)
孟菲斯灰熊
预测： 卡姆·斯潘塞和PJ·霍尔将进入轮换阵容
前景展望： 两个猜中了一个！在贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant)、小斯科蒂·皮蓬 (Scotty Pippen Jr.)、泰·杰罗姆和文斯·威廉姆斯 (Vince Williams) 相继受伤后，斯潘塞在控球后卫位置上的表现确实是雪中送炭。他的三分命中率高达惊人的44.5%，并且在周四比赛前，他的球员效率值（PER）达到了17.3。虽然他不太稳固的防守使他难以胜任首发，但斯潘塞的投射和组织能力相结合，让他的合同（还剩三年底薪）显得物超所值。孟菲斯在2024年选秀中以第53顺位选中了这位来自康涅狄格大学的球员，并在上赛季为他提供了一份双向合同。至于霍尔，呃……在7场比赛总共出战27分钟后，他已经不在队中了。— 约翰·霍林格 (John Hollinger)
迈阿密热火
预测： 尼古拉·约维奇将竞争最快进步球员
前景展望： 好吧，这个预测现在看来是彻底错了！像基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George)、佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson)、杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 和杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 这样的球员才是目前最快进步球员奖项的有力竞争者。约维奇在他进入NBA的第四个赛季，发展陷入了停滞。他场均8.4分的得分比上赛季创下的生涯新高10.7分有所下降。但他效率的下滑更是令人震惊。截至周三，这位22岁的球员总投篮命中率仅为37.6%，三分命中率仅为29.4%，罚球命中率也只有69.9%。热火主教练埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra) 仍然对约维奇的成长充满信心，所以或许最快进步球员的荣誉可以再等一年。— 詹姆斯·杰克逊 (James Jackson)
密尔沃基雄鹿
预测： 雄鹿的三分命中数将超过除波士顿外的所有球队
前景展望： 在赛季开始前，雄鹿在提高三分出手频率方面说得头头是道。在季前赛中，他们场均出手42.5次三分，这个数字足以让其在本赛季排名第三。但他们并未将这一改变贯彻到底。本赛季，雄鹿场均出手37.2次三分，这一数据仅排在联盟第15位，比他们上赛季场均出手数（36.6次，排名第18）只多出不到一次。雄鹿队面临着许多更棘手的问题，尤其是扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 的伤病，但他们未能构建一个更明智的战术框架，这一点令人失望。— 埃里克·内姆 (Eric Nehm)
明尼苏达森林狼
预测： 森林狼将赢得总冠军
前景展望： 是啊……关于这个。本月早些时候，森林狼看起来还像是真正的总冠军竞争者。他们一度在感恩节后取得了17胜6负的战绩，为全联盟最佳，其中包括战胜雷霆、马刺和凯尔特人。但他们随后撞上了南墙，一波五连败耗尽了所有势头。他们的替补得分和持球能力确实需要在交易截止日前得到升级。安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 的表现一直很出色，森林狼也展现出了成为西部一大难题的潜力。但就目前而言，他们自己也面临着亟待解决的真正难题。— 乔恩·克劳琴斯基 (Jon Krawczynski)
新奥尔良鹈鹕
预测： 乔丹·普尔将打破鹈鹕队史单赛季三分命中数纪录
前景展望： 这个预测和普尔本赛季在鹈鹕队的表现一样糟糕。我没有任何借口。更糟糕的是，如果特雷·墨菲 (Trey Murphy) 在最后36场比赛中场均至少投进3个三分球，他实际上很有可能打破队史单赛季纪录。我保证，这将是普尔的名字最后一次出现在我的大胆预测里。— 威廉·吉洛里 (William Guillory)
纽约尼克斯
预测： 纽约将赢得东部冠军
前景展望： 虽然我仍然认为纽约的天赋不输给东部任何一支球队，但就一月份的形势来看，这个预测并不乐观。尼克斯现在离附加赛的距离比离头号种子的位置更近。他们经历了一段极其糟糕的时期——在11场比赛中战绩为2胜9负——这通常不会发生在总冠军级别的球队身上。东部的格局仍然不明朗，虽然底特律表现强势，但他们仍需在季后赛中证明自己。活塞是目前东部最好的球队，但如果尼克斯最终还是闯入了总决赛，我认为也并非不可思议。— 詹姆斯·L·爱德华兹三世 (James L. Edwards III)
杰伦·威廉姆斯的伤病困扰让我们对俄城的预测打了折扣。(Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty Images)
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
预测： 雷霆将有三名球员入选NBA最佳阵容
前景展望： 这个预测已经不可能实现了，主要原因是伤病。杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 缺席了本赛季的大部分比赛，因此没有资格获得季后赛荣誉。他在场上的大部分时间都在努力找回上赛季入选最佳阵容时的状态。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 再次成为MVP的热门人选。如果切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 能在这支联盟最佳球队中赢得年度最佳防守球员，投票者可能会觉得有必要将他也选入最佳阵容。但雷霆无法凑齐第三个人了。— 弗雷德·卡茨 (Fred Katz)
奥兰多魔术
预测： 魔术将以东部第三的成绩结束赛季
前景展望： 到目前为止，我的预测已经偏离了目标，而且看起来越来越离谱。周三，魔术队才结束了四连败；由于他们接下来的三场比赛将对阵猛龙、马刺和雷霆，情况很可能在好转之前会变得更糟。弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 最近又加重了他在球队欧洲之行前刚刚恢复的高位脚踝扭伤。球队的进攻虽有逐年进步，但魔术在半场进攻中仍然靠不住，他们的球的转移和球员跑动都做得不够好。他们的三分命中率持续下滑，截至周三已跌至联盟第29位。伤病再次成为一个主要问题，瓦格纳、保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 和杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 都缺席了大量比赛。瓦格纳和萨格斯的缺阵影响了球队的防守，防守水平已不如过去两个赛季。奥兰多仍有机会争夺前六名以避免东部附加赛，但他们有很多问题需要纠正。— 乔什·罗宾斯 (Josh Robbins)
费城76人
预测： 乔尔·恩比德将出战58场比赛，并且是他近年来最健康的一年
前景展望： 如果有人需要彩票号码或者想看手相，随时可以找我。到目前为止，我的预测就像陈年的美酒一样愈发香醇。在可能的46场比赛中，恩比德已经出战了26场。所以，他可能打不到58场。但他相对来说一直很健康，并且打出了全明星级别的水平。他在一月份势不可挡，看起来就像MVP版本的自己。— 托尼·琼斯 (Tony Jones)
菲尼克斯太阳
预测： 他们会比上赛季赢得更多比赛
前景展望： 考虑到太阳上赛季只赢了36场球，我对这个预测感觉良好。我的问题是：我还是不够大胆。我没有预料到狄龙·布鲁克斯 (Dillon Brooks) 会产生如此大的影响。我没有预料到科林·吉莱斯皮 (Collin Gillespie) 会迎来一个爆发赛季。我没有预料到马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) 能保持健康。我也完全没想到乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott) 在他担任NBA主教练的第一个赛季会如此出色。很多事情都可能出错。德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 因脚踝扭伤缺阵。杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green) 因为反复发作的腿筋问题只打了四场比赛。如果菲尼克斯能保持健康，这可能是一支危险的球队。— 道格·哈勒 (Doug Haller)
波特兰开拓者
预测： 杨瀚森将在年度最佳新秀投票中获得第二名
前景展望： 哎哟。我承认是我太上头了。这位来自中国的菜鸟中锋不仅一票都得不到，他甚至不是开拓者队中最好的新秀。凯莱布·乐福 (Caleb Love) 的影响力要大得多，而杨瀚森则因为效率低下的表现，尤其是在防守端的表现，已经掉出了轮换阵容。他在夏季联赛中对阵6英尺9英寸的对手时看起来很有潜力，但NBA已经证明，他还没有为这个级别的比赛做好准备。仅凭半个赛季就评判一个新秀是不公平的，但一想到开拓者本可以选塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward) 或者德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen)，却选择了一个需要长期培养的球员，这无疑是波特兰这个本来看似充满进步的赛季中最大的污点。— 杰森·奎克 (Jason Quick)
萨克拉门托国王
预测： 拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克会有所帮助（而且他们需要帮助）
前景展望： 萨姆的预测在这两点上都说对了。威斯布鲁克本赛季确实帮了大忙。他是国王队内总得分第二、总上场时间第二、总助攻第一、总抢断第一和总篮板第一。他甚至命中了全队最多的三分球，因为与他职业生涯的其他时间相比，他的投篮异常出色（35%）。而国王队确实需要他，因为他们打得太烂了。这是联盟中最差的球队之一。伤病摧残了他们，而威斯布鲁克正在尽力弥补这一切。— 扎克·哈珀 (Zach Harper)
圣安东尼奥马刺
预测： 维克托·文班亚马将在MVP投票中进入前三
前景展望： 出于几个原因，文班亚马的MVP机会看起来很渺茫。最明显的是他已经缺席了14场比赛，距离失去评奖资格只差5场。其次是球队在他缺阵时取得的成功，这使得我们很难论证他比其他超级巨星更有价值，因为当他不在场时，他的球队战绩并无太大差别。然而，他个人的实际表现已经足够令人印象深刻，足以成为一名全明星首发，但显然还需要大幅提升才能跻身联盟顶尖行列。他的天赋继续激发着人们的敬畏，他看起来也正朝着联盟最佳球员的方向迈进，但他需要-在稳定性上迈出一大步才能重返MVP的竞争行列。— 贾里德·韦斯 (Jared Weiss)
多伦多猛龙
预测： 布兰登·英格拉姆将成为全明星（而斯科蒂·巴恩斯不会）
前景展望： 情况看起来……似乎有点可能？需要澄清的是，我相信斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 应该成为全明星，而布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 会在我列出的东部联盟遗珠中游名单里。但在公布首发球员时，英格拉姆从球迷和球员那里得到的票数都比巴恩斯多，尽管两人都远未达到通过这个渠道获得首发资格的程度。投票选出替补的教练们，可能也花了更多时间思考如何防守英格拉姆而不是巴恩斯，因为前者是猛龙队球权使用率最高的球员和头号得分手，也是他们半场进攻的关键。最终，我认为巴恩斯会通过教练投票入选，而英格拉姆不会，但我仍然坚持认为我的预测是合情合理的。— 埃里克·科伦 (Eric Koreen)
犹他爵士
预测： 劳里·马尔卡宁将在交易截止日前被交易
前景展望： 如果你是爵士球迷，这个预测看起来不错，因为它似乎完全不可能发生，爵士队不会交易这位芬兰前锋。我原以为他们会彻底摆烂，但现在看来并非如此。他们战绩不佳，但还没到“在场上打出令人发指的比赛”那种糟糕程度。他们可能会在夏天重新考虑这个问题，但爵士队似乎决心围绕马尔卡宁打造一个由年轻球员和几位老将组成的良好阵容……至少目前是这样。— 扎克·哈珀 (Zach Harper)
华盛顿奇才
预测： 奇才队的头号得分手场均得分将低于20.0分
前景展望： 这个预测到目前为止是正确的。CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 在被交易到老鹰队时，场均得到全队最高的18.8分。然而，这个预测没有捕捉到的是亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr) 的进步。这位二年级中锋场均得到17.7分，但这个数字并不能完全反映他的全面成长。在主教练布莱恩·基夫 (Brian Keefe) 的带领下，奇才队已经建立了一个基于球的转移和球员跑动的进攻体系。球员们乐于分享球。这对球队未来的发展是一个积极的信号。— 乔什·罗宾斯 (Josh Robbins)
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2025-26 NBA bold predictions: Revisiting preseason forecasts for each team
2025-26 NBA bold predictions: Revisiting preseason forecasts for each team
The Athletic NBA staff offered up bold predictions for every team heading into the 2025-26 season. Three months later, some of those look spot on, while others might have been too bold.
Here’s a progress report on each prediction — from the great to the “Huh?” (Stats are entering Thursday’s games.)
Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: The Hawks will finish with a top-10 defense
Outlook: Not quite. The Hawks were 16th through 48 games, even with Trae Young only playing in 10 of them. Nickel Alexander-Walker’s arrival has indeed jazzed up the perimeter D, with NAW playing at an All-Defensive Team level, but the frontcourt is a different story. With Kristaps Porziņģis only playing 17 games and 6-foot-8 Onyeka Okongwu pressed into service as a starting center, the Hawks are too often way too small and lack rim deterrence. The Hawks are 24th in 2-point defense, and only one team has allowed a greater proportion of opponent shots to come at the rim. — John Hollinger
Boston Celtics
Prediction: Derrick White will make the All-Star Game
Outlook: Will White prove me right? Probably not, despite what Pacers coach Rick Carlisle recently said about how White deserves to make the All-Star Game. That’s one downside of shooting 39 percent from the field. Despite his sometimes rocky shooting, though, White has helped carry the Celtics to second place in the Eastern Conference. Plenty of advanced metrics suggest he is one of the game’s most impactful guards. He will have to settle for that if the voters can’t overlook his iffy shooting numbers. — Jay King
Brooklyn Nets
Prediction: The Nets will get a top-four pick
Outlook: The Nets are a little bit behind the pace. They have the fifth-worst record in the league, which gives them a 42.1 percent chance at a top-four pick. A 7-3 stretch to start December might have been great for morale, but it certainly hurt them in a very competitive bottom of the standings. The Nets are 5-30 otherwise, so maybe they’ll sink back to the bottom, even as Michael Porter Jr. plays well and Egor Demin shows signs of intrigue. We’ll see where the season goes, but they are helped by the fact that one of their competitors, New Orleans, doesn’t control its pick and has no incentive to lose games. — Mike Vorkunov
Charlotte Hornets
Prediction: The Hornets win 28 games
Outlook: The Hornets are trending well. They’re on pace for 35 or so wins and have shown big signs of improvement lately. They own the sixth-most efficient offense in the NBA this season, but it’s been the second-best since Dec. 15, and they’re 13-10 in that stretch. The Hornets have the 18th-hardest strength of schedule for the rest of the season, according to Tankathon, and if the improvement is sustainable, then the Play-In Tournament isn’t out of question; they’re only 2 1/2 games back of 10th-place Atlanta. — Mike Vorkunov
Chicago Bulls
Prediction: The Bulls won’t make the Play-In
Outlook: For what it’s worth, my reasons for this prediction remain. Nikola Vučević is still abysmal as a rim protector. If we’re not calling Matas Buzelis a wing, Chicago’s best wing is Isaac Okoro, its irrationally important summer addition to a team that needs to click on too many cylinders to win. And the youth movement, while more encouraging overall than recent Bulls teams, does not scream that the future is bright. But for all those reasons, the Bulls are actually firmly in contention for — surprise! — another Play-In berth. The Bulls are 10th in the East at 23-24. The high-octane system and what Billy Donovan extracts from players like Tre Jones and Jalen Smith ends up creating too high a floor to avoid the Play-In. Just not enough to meaningfully win yet. Sorry, Bulls fans. I should’ve been bolder. — Joel Lorenzi
Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Lonzo Ball resurrects his career
Outlook: Ball has not been a good fit for the Cavs and is also having the worst shooting season of his career. He has also missed a bunch of games. He hasn’t been the right man for backup point guard on the Cavs because Darius Garland has been hurt all season. Ball needed a team that wouldn’t count on him so much (like Cleveland last year, when Ty Jerome thrived in fewer minutes for a healthy team). But it’s not just about fit. Ball has also really struggled with his play. So far, it looks like I didn’t get that one right. — Joe Vardon
Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Defense will be good … but not elite
Outlook: I feel good about this. The Mavericks, who are ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions, defend at a high level but are nowhere near the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Detroit Pistons, the NBA’s first- and second-ranked defenses, respectively. Dallas’ goal, remember, was to be No. 1 in defense. The Mavericks’ biggest problem this season has been a predictable one: They struggle to score. They’re 27th in offense. Summer signing D’Angelo Russell was supposed to help there, but he’s been buried on the bench. — Christian Clark
Denver Nuggets
Prediction: The Nuggets will win the West
Outlook: This one obviously won’t be settled until spring, but the prediction is aging well. The Nuggets are very good. They are a deep team, skilled, talented and hungry. They have played without Nikola Jokić since essentially the new year and have fared well without him. With Jokić’s return almost imminent and the newfound depth around him, the Nuggets should have every opportunity to be the chief challenger to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference, though another Aaron Gordon hamstring injury is a tough blow. — Tony Jones
Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Cade Cunningham will finish top three in MVP voting
Outlook: It was almost as if I could see into the future. As things stand, I do have to pat myself on the back. Cunningham isn’t quite in the echelon of top three in MVP voting right now, but he certainly has a strong case. He’s an All-Star starter, seemingly on his way to a second consecutive All-NBA selection and the impetus of Detroit’s resurgence toward the top of the conference. If he can continue on this path and the Pistons can keep winning games, he should garner even more consideration for the award. — Hunter Patterson
Our October prediction for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Golden State isn’t looking so great. (David Sherman / NBAE via Getty Images)
Golden State Warriors
Prediction: The Warriors will make it to at least the Western Conference finals
Outlook: Golden State was always going to need health to make this one happen, and when Jimmy Butler tore his ACL, that dream disappeared. Even before that season-altering injury, the Warriors never played to the level that they had hoped, although they won 12 of 16 and were starting to find consistency before Butler went down. The Warriors just don’t have enough pieces to compete at the highest levels without him. — Nick Friedell
Houston Rockets
Prediction: Alperen Şengün will finish second in triple-doubles
Outlook: This one isn’t going so well. Şengün is playing at an All-Star level, and he’s averaging a career-high 6.4 assists. He’s been as impactful as I expected him to be, but ha has only one triple-double. And that one came in a game that went to overtime. I wrote before the season that “I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get at least 15 triple-doubles.” Although his assist numbers are up, Şengün only has three games with 10 or more assists this season. The thought behind my prediction was correct. I just got a little ambitious. — William Guillory
Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Pacers get to the second round without Tyrese Haliburton
Outlook: Well, it was a bold prediction. After securing coach Rick Carlisle’s 999th career win in December, Indiana lost a franchise record 13 consecutive games. It took the Pacers a month to get Carlisle to 1,000 wins. The Pacers are near the bottom of the East, and every victory is a good one for morale. Pascal Siakam, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career, has spoken about the team’s lack of effort and energy, and they’re dealing with several injuries, not just Haliburton’s. While the playoffs — any round — are not happening, hopefully they can turn this Haliburton-less season around just a little. — Shakeia Taylor
LA Clippers
Prediction: LA will match its best 20-game start under Tyronn Lue
Outlook: Best start? How about the worst start under Lue? I hinted that the Clippers having slow starts was something the team was too familiar with. The Clippers didn’t just lean into that trend; they fell into the abyss, starting 5-15 before hitting rock bottom at 6-21. And of course, the Clippers restarted their season from there by winning 16 of 19 games. All I can do is shake my head and remind myself that the Clippers season doesn’t start until Christmas from now on. — Law Murray
Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: LeBron James makes an All-NBA team
Outlook: (Eddie Vedder voice) “Ohhhhh, IIIIIII, Ohhhhh, I’m still alive!” LeBron is still eligible for All-NBA consideration and has started playing in back-to-backs. But I have zero margin for error. The next game he misses will push him under the 65-game awards threshold. And once he misses that game, the NBA will say (Eddie Vedder voice), “This is not for you.” — Dan Woike
Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Cam Spencer and PJ Hall end up in the rotation
Outlook: One for two! Spencer has indeed been a lifesaver at point guard in the wake of injuries to Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., Ty Jerome and Vince Williams. He’s shooting a scorching 44.5 percent from 3 and sported a 17.3 PER entering Thursday. While his shaky defense makes him a poor answer as a starter, Spencer’s shooting and playmaking combine to make his contract (three more years at the minimum) an absurd bargain after Memphis took the UConn product 53rd in the 2024 draft and kept him on a two-way deal last season. As for Hall, um … he’s no longer on the team after playing just 27 minutes across seven games. — John Hollinger
Miami Heat
Prediction: Nikola Jović challenges for Most Improved Player
Outlook: Well, this didn’t age well! Players such as Keyonte George, Peyton Watson, Jalen Johnson and Jalen Duren are the most viable candidates for Most Improved Player honors at this point. Jović’s development has stalled during his fourth season in the NBA. His 8.4 points per game are a decrease from last season’s scoring average of 10.7, which was a career high. But the decline in his efficiency has been jarring. Entering Wednesday, the 22-year-old is shooting only 37.6 percent overall and making just 29.4 percent of his 3s while knocking down only 69.9 percent of his free throws. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra remains confident in Jović’s development, so maybe MIP honors can wait a year. — James Jackson
Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: The Bucks will make more 3s than any other team (outside of Boston).
Outlook: Heading into the season, the Bucks said all the right things about increasing their 3-point rate. In the preseason, they averaged 42.5 3-point attempts per game, a number that would have them third this season. But they didn’t follow through on that change. The Bucks have attempted 37.2 3s per game this season, which is the 15th-highest per-game average and less than one more 3 than they took per game last season (36.6) when they finished 18th in the category. The Bucks have dealt with many larger issues, especially the injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but their inability to build a smarter tactical framework has been a disappointment. — Eric Nehm
Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: The Wolves will win the championship
Outlook: Yeah … about that. The Wolves looked like legitimate championship contenders earlier this month. At one point, they were 17-6 after Thanksgiving, the best record in the NBA, including wins over the Thunder, Spurs and Celtics. But they hit a major wall, with a five-game losing streak sapping any momentum. Their bench scoring and ballhandling really need to be upgraded by the trade deadline. Anthony Edwards has been great, and the Wolves have shown the potential to be a real problem in the West. Right now, they have real problems that need to be fixed. — Jon Krawczynski
New Orleans Pelicans
Prediction: Jordan Poole will break Pels’ single-season 3-point record
Outlook: This prediction is just as bad as Poole has been this season in a Pelicans uniform. I’ve got no excuses. And to make it worse, Trey Murphy is actually in a pretty good position to potentially break the single-season record if he averages at least three 3-pointers over the final 36 games. I promise this will be the last time Poole’s name makes it into my bold predictions. — William Guillory
New York Knicks
Prediction: New York will win the East
Outlook: While I still think New York is as talented as any team in the East, the prediction doesn’t look great as we sit here in January. The Knicks are closer to the Play-In Tournament than the No. 1 seed. They had a horrid stretch of basketball — 2-9 over an 11-game span — that doesn’t usually happen to championship-level teams. The East is still flimsy, and while Detroit has dominated, it still needs to prove itself in the postseason. The Pistons are by far the best team in the conference right now, but I don’t think it would be shocking if the Knicks still made it to the finals. — James L. Edwards III
Jalen Williams’ injury woes put a dent in our OKC forecast. (Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty Images)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Three Thunder players make All-NBA
Outlook: There is no longer any chance this prediction can come true, largely due to injuries. Jalen Williams has missed most of the year and thus is ineligible for postseason honors. He’s spent most of his time on the court trying to rediscover his All-NBA groove from last season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP favorite again. And if Chet Holmgren wins Defensive Player of the Year on the best team in the league, voters may feel compelled to add him to All-NBA. But the Thunder can’t get a third guy. — Fred Katz
Orlando Magic
Prediction: The Magic will finish third in the East
Outlook: So far, my prediction has been off-target, and it’s looking more and more off-target all the time. On Wednesday, the Magic broke a four-game losing streak; because their next three games will be against the Raptors, Spurs and Thunder, things are likely to get worse before they improve. Franz Wagner recently aggravated the high-ankle sprain he returned from just before the team’s trip to Europe. The offense has improved year-over-year, but the Magic still cannot count on their offense in the half court, where the ball movement and player movement haven’t been good enough. Their 3-point shooting percentage has deteriorated and entered Wednesday 29th leaguewide. Injuries again have been a major problem, with Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs missing significant time. The absences of Wagner and Suggs have impacted the defense, which hasn’t been what it was the last two seasons. Orlando still will have an opportunity to compete for a top-six finish and avoid the East Play-In, but it has a lot to correct. — Josh Robbins
Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Joel Embiid will play 58 games and be the healthiest he’s been in years
Outlook: If anyone needs lottery numbers or a palm reading, I’m available. As of now, my prediction is aging like wine. Embiid has played in 26 of a possible 46 games. So, he might not make it to 58. But he has been relatively healthy, and he is playing at an All-Star level. He has been on a tear in January, and he looks relatively like the MVP version of himself. — Tony Jones
Phoenix Suns
Prediction: They’ll win more games than last season
Outlook: Considering the Suns had 36 wins last season, I feel good about this. My problem: I was not bold enough. I did not anticipate Dillon Brooks having this kind of impact. I did not expect Collin Gillespie to have a breakout season. I did not anticipate Mark Williams staying healthy. And I had no idea Jordan Ott would be this good in his first season as an NBA head coach. A lot can go wrong. Devin Booker is out with an ankle sprain. Jalen Green has played in only four games because of a hamstring problem that will not go away. If Phoenix can stay healthy, this could be a dangerous team. — Doug Haller
Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Yang Hansen is runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting
Outlook: Oooof. Count me as guilty for drinking the Kool-Aid. Not only is the rookie center from China not going to get any votes, but he isn’t even the best rookie on the Blazers. Caleb Love has been far more impactful, as Yang has played his way out of the rotation with ineffective minutes, particularly on defense. He looked intriguing during his summer league outings against 6-foot-9 competition, but the NBA has proved to be a level for which he is not yet prepared. It’s not fair to judge a pick halfway through one season, but knowing the Blazers could have drafted Cedric Coward or Derik Queen, but instead chose to take this project, is the biggest blemish on what has been a glowing season of progress in Portland. — Jason Quick
Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Russell Westbrook will help (and they need it)
Outlook: Sam nailed this prediction on both counts. Westbrook does greatly help this season. He’s second in total points, second in total minutes, first in total assists, first in total steals and first in total rebounds for the Kings. He’s even made the most 3-pointers on the team because he’s shooting it unusually well (35 percent) compared to the rest of his career. And the Kings need it because they stink. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Injuries have ravaged them, and Westbrook is trying his best to mitigate that. — Zach Harper
San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Victor Wembanyama will make the top three in MVP voting
Outlook: Wembanyama’s MVP chances are looking dim for several reasons. The most obvious is that he has missed 14 games, putting him five missed games from disqualification. Then there is the team’s success without him, making it hard to argue he is more valuable than other superstars when his team has a similar record when he’s on the shelf. However, his actual performance has been impressive enough to be an All-Star starter, but it clearly needs plenty of improvement to be among the best in the league. His talent continues to inspire awe, and he clearly looks on track to be in the running for best player in the league soon, but he’ll need to take a big step forward in consistency to get back in the MVP race. — Jared Weiss
Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Brandon Ingram will be an All-Star (and Scottie Barnes won’t)
Outlook: Things look … plausible? To be clear, I believe Barnes should be an All-Star, and Ingram would be on my medium-length list of Eastern Conference also-rans. But Ingram got more votes than Barnes from both fans and players when the starters were announced, although neither was close to earning a spot through that process. Coaches, who vote for the reserves, also likely spend more time thinking about how to stop Ingram than Barnes, since the former is the highest-usage player and leading scorer on the Raptors and the key to their half-court offense. Ultimately, I think Barnes will get in via the coaches’ vote and Ingram will not, but I stand by this prediction as well-reasoned. — Eric Koreen
Utah Jazz
Prediction: Lauri Markkanen will be traded by the deadline
Outlook: This looks good if you’re a Jazz fan because it does not seem likely at all that the Jazz will trade the Finnish forward. I figured they’d dive deep into tanking, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. They’re bad, but not “putting an abhorrent product on the floor” bad. They may revisit this in the summer, but the Jazz seem intent on putting a good mix of young players and a few veterans around Markkanen … for now. — Zach Harper
Washington Wizards
Prediction: The Wizards’ leading scorer will average under 20.0 points per game
Outlook: This prediction has proven correct so far. CJ McCollum was averaging a team-high 18.8 points per game when he was traded to the Hawks. What the prediction doesn’t capture, however, is Alex Sarr’s improvement. The second-year center is averaging 17.7 points per game, but that figure doesn’t fully reflect the all-around growth. Under coach Brian Keefe, the Wizards have created an offense predicated on ball movement and player movement. The players share the ball. That’s a positive sign for the franchise going forward. — Josh Robbins
By The Athletic NBA Staff, via The Athletic